Saturday, February 15, 2014

Malaysian Bulk Carriers -Sailing with the wind (CIMB)

Malaysian Bulk Carriers
Current RM1.92
Target RM2.01
Sailing with the wind

Bulk losses have generally narrowed over the recent quarters as the bulk rates have gradually improved amid slowing bulk carrier supply growth. We expect profits to rise in 2014 due to smaller bulk losses and stronger offshore earnings.

We keep our Add call, forecasts and SOP-based target price unchanged. Share price rerating catalysts include the expected narrowing of dry bulk losses over the medium term as freight rates recover on the back of a slower pace of newbuilding deliveries.

AirAsia X -Wrestling with competition (CIMB)

AirAsia X Bhd
Current RM0.99
Target RM1.11
Wrestling with competition

MAS is keeping up the pressure on AAX as it injects more capacity on a number of the routes that both carriers serve. Base yields are, therefore, likely to dip in 2014. AAX will have to bank on an improving ancillary yield to pick up the slack, which is far from certain.

Our maintain our Hold call and keep our target price unchanged, based on the sector average of 11x CY15 P/E. Base yields are likely to fall next year as competition on the KL-Australia route heats up. AAX's earnings are highly sensitive to yield changes so further yield weakness will dampen its growth sharply.

AirAsia -Unrelenting yield pressure (CIMB)

AirAsia Bhd
Current RM2.34
Target RM2.55
Unrelenting yield pressure

The level of competition in the market place remains fierce, resulting in a disappointing 3Q13. We expect yield pressure to remain a prevalent feature in 2014 as MAS and Malindo continue to be overly ambitious with their capacity expansion.

We keep our Hold call and our target price remains based on 11x CY15 P/E, the sector average. Yield pressure will persist in 2014 as MAS is intent on defending its market share, leading to pedestrian group earnings growth in FY14-15 as Malaysia earnings fall, only to be offset by better associate earnings. Still, AirAsia remains the best in the field, given its low cost structure.

DRY BULK SHIPPING -Dry bulk rates bottomed in 2Q/3Q 2013 (CIMB)

5.1 Dry bulk rates bottomed in 2Q/3Q 2013

Dry bulk rates staged a major recovery in 2H13, with capesize rates recovering sharply in 3Q and 4Q13, while panamax, supramax and handysize rates recovering convincingly from 4Q13.

The capesize rate recovery was caused by the substantial destocking of iron ore in China across 2012 and 1Q13, and with steel demand and production growing very well, restocking activity drove up exports from Australia and Brazil to China from 2Q13 onwards. This ultimately spilled over to the panamax sector, as capesize rates became too expensive. Nevertheless, capesize rates fell sharply in January 2014, as iron ore stocks in China have been largely replenished.

CONTAINER SHIPPING -2013 was a bad year (CIMB)

2013 was a bad year

Container freight rates performed poorly in 2013, despite starting the year on a strong note. From 2Q13 onwards, spot SCFI rates on all the key routes started to fall below year-ago levels, and it was not until the 4Q that some of the slide was addressed, as carriers worried about their start-of-2014 contract renewals.
On average, CCFI rates (which averages both spot and contract rates) from China to North Europe and the Mediterranean fell 11-12% yoy during 2013, while China-Middle East rates fell 17% yoy. Fortunately, the rates on the all-important transpacific trade (China-US West Coast/East Coast) rates remained largely flat.

Friday, February 14, 2014

CapitaCommercial Trust: Limited Core CBD supply pipeline ahead (OCBC)

CapitaCommercial Trust:
Limited Core CBD supply pipeline ahead

-Limited Core CBD pipeline ahead
-Grade A rentals likely to recover
-Firm operational traction

To benefit from limited pipeline in Core CBD sub-market
We expect CCT to benefit from an improving Grade A office market in FY14 as rental levels reach a turning point in an environment of resilient absorption (9M13: 671k sq ft) and limited supply pipeline, with only CapitaGreen (~700k sq ft NLA) coming online in FY14 in the Core CBD sub-segment.

Genting Hong Kong -Pivot to Asia continues (CIMB)

Genting Hong Kong
Current US$0.41
Target US$0.57
Pivot to Asia continues

▊ We believe that GENHK continues to realign its capital and focus back to Asia. Following the second selldown of its Norwegian Cruise Line (NCL) stake in Dec 2013, GENHK is now placing an order for a second €697.2m mega-ship. The first mega-ship will effectively be a floating integrated resort in southern China, while the second will likely be positioned in ASEAN. There is no change to our FY13-15 EPS as these strategic cruise assets will only begin their contribution in FY17 onwards. Our target price, based on a 20% discount to RNAV, remains unchanged. Although the capital unlocked from the sale of NCL shares that will be deployed into value-creating assets is a key catalyst, we choose not to factor it in at this stage. Our Add rating is maintained.

Neptune Orient Lines -Is the worst over? (CIMB)

Neptune Orient Lines
Current S$1.05
Target S$1.16
Is the worst over?

Despite the likelihood of outsized losses in 4Q13 following a dramatic fall in spot rates over the past few months, the worst may be over and a brighter year lies ahead in 2014. NOL's current share price has incorporated large amounts of risk and downside appears limited.

We maintain our Hold call and target price, based on 1.1x CY14 P/BV, the mid-point of its trading range since 2012. 4Q13 losses should widen sequentially due to a dramatic fall in spot rates, but NOL's share price has taken a lot of risk into account and should be supported at the current levels.

Perennial China Retail Trust: Sequential improvement in Shenyang (DBSV)

Perennial China Retail Trust:
S$0.53; .
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.84
Sequential improvement in Shenyang

•Distribution income supported by earn out
•Operations stabilising and growing on track but pre-opening expenses may dampen performance
•Maintain BUY, TP S$0.84

Supported by earn out. PCRT reported Q4 distribution income of S$10.9m, which largely came from earn out deed support of S$10.9m. This translates into a DPU of 0.95Scts. Total 2H13 DPU of 1.9Scts will be paid out on 11 Mar. At topline, although it chalked revenue of S$1.3m, pre-operating expenses of S$4.15m from its Foshan and Chengdu malls eroded profits. The group took in net revaluation surplus of S$53m, bringing its book NAV to S$0.77/unit.

曾淵滄專欄 14.02.14 :藍籌炒業績趁低吸




Sheng Siong Group: Still in steady hands (OCBC)

Sheng Siong Group:
Fair value S$0.70
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.03
versus: Current price S$0.60
Still in steady hands

We understand from a recent meet up with Sheng Siong Group’s (SSG) management that the highly anticipated e-commerce is in its pilot phase. Management prefers to only roll it out on a larger scale when the pilot phase has tangible success. We estimate margin improvements of 0.5ppt to 1ppt as more direct sourcing and higher warehouse utilisation materialise. Its dividend policy of 90% payout ratio that expires in FY14 will be closely watched as it is what makes SSG a yield play. We think possibility of property acquisitions might prompt management to rethink whether they should retain more earnings instead. Due to a change in analyst and assumptions, we maintain BUY but lower our fair value estimate from S$0.78 to S$0.70. This is mainly because of updated higher cost of equity.

Thursday, February 13, 2014

Genting Singapore - Unsure about Jeju (MKE)

Genting Singapore -
Share Price: SGD1.39
Target Price: SGD1.31
Unsure about Jeju

Landing and GENS will jointly invest USD2.2.b to develop and operate an integrated resort (IR) in Jeju, South Korea.

We are unsure if the IR will be financially viable as locals are not permitted to gamble. That may change in 2015, however.

Boustead Singapore - Cash-Rich Think Tank (UOBKH)

Boustead Singapore -
Share Price S$1.66
Target Price S$1.94
Cash-Rich Think Tank

Boustead Singapore (Boustead) has four main business segments. It is an engineering firm for industrial real estate, energy and water plants, and is an exclusive distributor of a widely-adopted geographic information system (GIS) in Australia and South Asia. The group specialises in value engineering – offering project management, design and consulting services that realise cost and time savings for customers, while outsourcing construction requirements. Its GIS technology is used by both government and nongovernment entities, where Boustead holds an aggregate 80% share in its markets. Recently, the group has also focused on building its industrial leasehold portfolio with plans to transfer them into a REIT in the future.

Mencast : Synergistic Bargain Acquisition (DMG)

Mencast Holdings: Synergistic Bargain Acquisition
(BUY SGD0.54, TP: SGD0.75)

MCAST has acquired S&W and S&W Process Equipment – companies that manufacture and repair heat exchangers. We see clear synergies with its offshore engineering and energy divisions. The purchase is a bargain at 2.6x P/E, based on the average profit warranty. Thus, we raise FY14/15F estimates by 3%/7%, nudging our TP up to SGD0.75 (from SGD0.74) based on 11x FY14F P/E. Maintain BUY.

Heat exchanger companies with synergistic operations and assets. S&W Pte Ltd and S&W Process Equipment (Changshu) Pte Ltd manufacture and repair heat exchangers and pressure vessels. We see operational synergies with MCAST’s Top Great business (offshore oil & gas modules manufacturing) and its VacTech business, which services refinery equipment that incorporate heat exchangers. Furthermore, MCAST’s Chinese facility allows the group to tap into the low cost Chinese labour force as well as to participate in China’s vibrant oil & gas fabrication industry.

Perennial China Retail Trust -2014 - eyes on operational assets (CIMB)

Perennial China Retail Trust
Current S$0.53
Target S$0.57
2014 - eyes on operational assets

DPU came in a shade below our forecast, at 23% for 4Q and 92% for FY13 due to higher operating expenses. Existing earn-out continues to support distributions but is set to expire in 2014. We, therefore, see 2014 as an important year, during which its operational assets will the focus. Our FY14-15 DPUs drop by 6-10% as we factor in project delays. We maintain our Hold rating and RNAV-based target price. Health of its underlying operations can be a re-rating or de-rating catalyst.

曾淵滄專欄 13.02.14:加息較退市得人驚



Genting Singapore - Entering North China market (CIMB)

Genting Singapore -
Current S$1.39
Target S$1.87
Entering North China market

GENS’s US$2.2bn investment in an IR in Jeju Korea is in line with our view that the Genting group is aggressively venturing into new markets, one of the key themes in our 2014 Gaming Navigator and a key catalyst. Given its S$4.3bn in cash, GENS still has the balance sheet strength to follow up on its Japan interests. Our FY13-15 EPS forecasts are unchanged but we raise our RNAV-based target price by S$0.o9 to factor in the NPV of the Jeju IR (15% ROCE). We maintain our Add rating.

Wednesday, February 12, 2014

VARD - Bourbon Places Newbuild Order (DMG)

Target Price: SGD0.85
Price: SGD0.82
Bourbon Places Newbuild Order

VARD announced last Friday that it has won an order for an Arctic anchor handling tug and supply (AHTS) vessel from Bourbon (GBB FP, NR) – the second newbuild order announced so far this year. The vessel, based on VARD’s own design, is expected to be ready by 2Q16.

We estimate the company has won NOK1.75bn worth of new orders YTD. This makes up 15% of our FY14 estimate. Maintain NEUTRAL, with a SGD0.85 TP.

Genting Singapore: Hedging exposure to Korea (DBSV)

Genting Singapore:
BUY; S$1.39
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.75
Hedging exposure to Korea

•Foray into Korea to gain foothold in North Asia, hedging for potential gaming liberalisation
•Potential catalysts from strong earnings recovery and Japan’s gaming liberalisation (seen as front-runner)
•Reiterate BUY and S$1.75 TP

Much awaited new venture. The US$2.2bn Resorts World Jeju (RWJ) will be GENS’ first foray into the North Asian gaming market. The development is a 50:50 JV with Landing International Development, the largest property developer in Anhui province in China.

StarHub- Headwinds blow likelihood of higher dividends away (CIMB)

Current S$4.23
Target S$4.20
Headwinds blow likelihood of higher dividends away

▊ Starhub’s FY13 core net profit missed our forecast by 4% and the market by 5% due to weaker-than-expected service revenue. More disappointing is the fact that the telco is not raising its dividends because it sees “tremendous headwinds” ahead. While we concur with its operational outlook, we feel that Starhub has the financial capacity to raise its dividends and it is taking a very conservative stance. Due to the earnings miss, we reduce our FY14-15 EPS estimates by 8-9%, our DPS forecast by 17% and our DCF-based target price by 7% (WACC: 7.8%). However, Starhub remains a Hold, supported by its dividend yield of 4.7%. M1 remains our top Singapore telco pick.

Ascendas Hospitality Trust: Boosted by acquisitions (DBSV)

Ascendas Hospitality Trust:
HOLD  S$0.725;
Boosted by acquisitions;
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.76 (Previous S$0.73)

•3Q14 results in line
•Australian hotel portfolio to underpin growth; extending debt expiry profile to 3.7 years reduce interest rate risks
•Maintain HOLD, TP revised slightly higher to S$0.76

3Q14 results in line. Ascendas Hospitality Trust (A-HTRUST) reported higher revenues and net property income (NPI) of S$56.6m and S$23.4m, which were 10% and 37% higher y-o-y, respectively.

曾淵滄專欄 12.02.14:未來一個月很樂觀



Singapore Post: Steady yield play (OCBC)

Singapore Post:
Fair value S$1.32
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.06
versus: Current price S$1.32
Steady yield play

Singapore Post (SingPost) reported 3QFY14 PATMI of S$39.4m which was flat YoY (-0.2%). 9MFY14 PATMI now cumulates to S$112.3m, constituting 76.0% of our full year forecast and we judge this to be mostly in line with expectations. In terms of the topline, 3QFY14 revenue grew 30.2% YoY to S$222.6m mainly due to contributions from acquisitions and an increase in e-Commerce activities.

Tuesday, February 11, 2014

StarHub : Unchanged outlook (OCBC)

StarHub Ltd:
Fair value S$3.81
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.20
versus: Current price S$4.23
 Unchanged outlook; maintain SELL

Starhub Ltd reported 4Q13 revenue of S$613.7m, down 6.2% YoY, or about 2.2% shy of our forecast, but net profit of S$83.7m (-4.8%) was 18% below our estimate. For the full-year, revenue fell 2.6% to S$2359.3m while earnings improved 3.2% to S$370.7m, 5% below our forecast (1.3% below street). As expected, StarHub declared a quarterly dividend of S$0.05/share, bringing its total payout to S$0.20 as guided.

BreadTalk -Baking for a bright future (MKE)

BreadTalk Group
Share Price: SGD0.91
Target Price: SGD1.40(+55%)
52w high/low (SGD)1.17/0.74
Baking for a bright future

BreadTalk is by far the most successful Singapore-based F&B company, having taken homemade brands into the region. It now boasts more than 800 outlets across 15 countries, with an ambitious target to take this number to 1,000 in 2014.
Operational statistics are healthy with EBITDA growing rapidly. This should allay fears on BreadTalk’s lacklustre profit growth, hitherto blamed on poor management or a flawed business model though our analysis shows it is a matter of accounting. Going forward, higher-margin businesses should also help lift earnings.

OSIM International -Definitely the one to own (MKE)

OSIM International
Share Price: SGD2.35
Target Price: SGD2.78(+18%)
Definitely the one to own

OSIM’s profit should see a substantial boost from TWG this year after the company raised its stake to 70% in October 2013. Store count is expanding rapidly and maiden outlets in North Asia will be opened this year.
Sales growth in China may rev up again following a successful marketing campaign in 2H13. Management appears more optimistic about 2014 after putting store expansion on hold in the past two years.

ASL Marine- An asset-accretive, rather than earnings-accretive deal (CIMB)

ASL Marine
Current S$0.72
Target S$0.90
An asset-accretive, rather than earnings-accretive deal

We are neutral on ASL’s proposed acquisition of Miclyn Express Offshore’s (MEO) Batam yard in Indonesia for S$25.6m. Given the fierce competition from Chinese OSV builders, we do not think that the incremental capacity could capture a high-base load of work to be a substantial earnings driver. However, what ASL bought here is a good site with waterfront access. Moreover, MEO’s yard comes at a good price too. Pending further details from a potential commercial agreement between MEO and ASL, we keep our FY14-16 EPS and target price – still pegged to 0.9x CY14 P/BV (its 5-year mean). We retain our Add call with potential catalysts coming from shipbuilding sales, faster turnaround of Vosta and big repair jobs.

曾淵滄專欄 11.02.14 :地方債非洪水猛獸




Goodpack : A promising 2014 (OCBC)

Goodpack Limited:
Fair value S$2.17
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.05
versus: Current price S$1.85
A promising 2014

We met up with Goodpack’s management and better understood their growth drivers in 2014. While the impact of economic recoveries in the US and Europe on Goodpack’s growth is likely to be limited, we expect new SR accounts to be the key driver for growth over FY14/15 as Goodpack continues to engage auto parts manufacturers. In addition, we believe that, given the cost savings of up to 20% and Goodpack’s proactive role as an on-the-ground partner, scaling up and adoption will feature more prominently in Goodpack’s earnings profile from 2QFY15 onwards. Upgrade to BUY with new fair value estimate of S$2.17 from S$1.87 due to change in analyst and updated assumptions.

Monday, February 10, 2014

Religare Health Trust - Proposed Mohali acquisition (CIMB)

Religare Health Trust -
Current S$0.76
Target S$0.94
Proposed Mohali acquisition

Written By Stock Fanatic on Tuesday, February 4, 2014
RHT announced its proposed acquisition of The Mohali Clinical Establishment (Mohali) and interested person transaction to be entered into with Fortis Healthcare. We expect the acquisition to be yield accretive and come through in FY15. While we view the acquisition positively, we expect the higher funding cost to limit its positive impact. Our DDM-based target price increases by 1% and FY15 DPU by 1.3% as we factor in the potential acquisition.We maintain our Add rating.

Bumitama Agri - FFB Production Growth To Be Better This Year (UOBKH)

Bumitama Agri (BAL SP)
Share Price S$0.915
Target Price S$1.40
FFB Production Growth To Be Better This Year

BAL's 2013 results are likely to be within expectation. Its FFB production for 2013 grew 16.5% yoy, much weaker than 2012’s 39.8% yoy, mainly due to low FFB yield, which was affected by the dry weather back in 2011. However, we expect better FFB production growth in 2014 on recovery of FFB yield, young age profile and newly mature areas. OER remained high at 23.3% in 2013, one of the highest in the industry despite high third-party crop intake. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$1.40.

Rex International: Reinforcing the faith (DBSV)

Rex International Holdings:
BUY S$0.60;
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.15
Reinforcing the faith;

Second well in Oman a "hit". Results of the second well drilling in Oman Block 50 were released by Masirah Oil, a 64% indirectly owned subsidiary of Lime Petroleum (which in turn is 65% owned by Rex International Holdings or RIH), yesterday. Masirah Oil announced that the drilling had successfully reached the target depth of the well in excess of 3,000m into the Cambrian (geological) formation. Hydrocarbons were discovered in several formations with good quality oil sample extracted. The well will undergo further data acquisition before setting the completion for testing. As of now, there are no formal estimates on hydrocarbon volumes though.

Overseas Union Enterprise- Potential 14% Special Dividend Payout Following The Listing Of OUE C-REIT (UOBKH)

Overseas Union Enterprise (OUE SP)
Share Price S$2.39
Target Price S$3.04
Potential 14% Special Dividend Payout Following The Listing Of OUE C-REIT

A special 1-for-6 distribution-in-specie of OUE H-Trust (or S$0.15 dividend and 6.3% yield) is in sight following the listing of OUE C-REIT. A further 8% dividend payout is a possibility following the example of OUE HT. OUE has established a capital recycling platform to enable the parent to focus on higher-value development activities while simultaneously deriving a stable income stream through its stakes in its trusts and property management platform. Maintain BUY with a lower target price of S$3.04 (from S$3.12), based on a 30% discount to our revised RNAV of S$4.34/share (post 21 cent dividend).

曾淵滄專欄 10.02.14:大鱷準備食大茶飯



CapitaRetail China Trust -Triple booster shot for growth (DBSV)

CapitaRetail China Trust
BUY S$1.31
STI : 3,047.93
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.56 (Prev S$ 1.60)
Triple booster shot for growth

Triple booster shot for growth
• Positive earnings momentum continued into Q4 despite income vacuum from MZLY
• Three-pronged earnings driver to boost growth in FY14
• Maintain BUY, TP $1.56

Positive earnings growth despite income vacuum from MZLY. CRCT reported 4.9% higher revenues of S$41m, 3.4% higher NPI of S$26m and a 4 .9% growth in distributable income. This was largely attributable to higher revenue growth at the multi-tenanted malls CM Xizhimen, Wangjing, Qibao and Saihan, although partially offset by the closure of MZLY for AEI works. However, DPU fell 5.5% y-o-y to 2.2Scts due to dilution from an enlarged share base post-preferential offering. CRCT’s portfolio was revalued at 6.6% NPI yield, bringing its book NAV to $1.48/unit.

Sunday, February 9, 2014

Singapore Consumer – ‘New York’ of ASEAN (MKE)

Singapore Consumer – ‘New York’ of ASEAN
‘New York’ of ASEAN
Within a booming ASEAN, Singapore represents a very attractive base for businesses, especially multinational corporations. The Republic has one of the best infrastructures in the region and is known for its conducive environment for doing business, winning several accolades such as World’s Best Airport. Tourism will continue to flourish as the city-state reinvents itself as a service-dependent economy.

Ultimately, Singapore is a “multiplier” economy, thriving on trade. As a result, the nation is likely to be a big winner of ASEAN integration and the overall lowering of trade tariffs and non-tariff barriers, according to several academic studies. All these will likely have a positive impact on domestic consumption.

Dr Chan Yan Chong-Commentary 07.02.2014-Planning Begins In Spring: Exercise Caution And Patience!

Planning Begins In Spring: Exercise Caution And Patience!
By Dr Chan Yan Chong

How much wealth is enough? To have ‘enough’ could probably be when your income from the interests generated by your assets each year is higher than the income from your job, for by then, you do not have to work and still be able to maintain your current lifestyle. As the Chinese saying goes, ‘The planning for the year begins in Spring’. As we celebrate the Spring Festival, I encourage you to make your plan seriously and calculate how much wealth you need to make so that you have ‘enough’.

When you have a clear goal, it will decide what level of risk you should take. If you are far away from your goal, you may want to take a bigger risk; when you are near or already achieved your goal, you should guard your assets. If you have surplus, you may want to take smaller gambles, just to test your sense of judgment. Over the past 30 years, I have kept to this principle of long-term planning, gradually accumulating wealth with my long-term investments and eventually achieving financial freedom successfully.

Singapore's REIT sector going through rough patch

Otto Marine: Charting A Turnaround Course

Otto Marine: Charting A Turnaround Course
By Shane Goh and Elaine Lee

In a potential turnaround year, Otto Marine returned to the black for the first nine months of FY13 and witnessed a change at the helm as it gears up for a booming oil and gas sector in 2014. Shares Investment pays a visit to the firm’s premise for an exclusive interview with Otto Marine’s recently appointed chief executive officer, Garrick Stanley.

For the last two years, Otto Marine had sailed in a red sea, hampered by reduced utilisation and charter rates. Instead of lamenting about their plight, the firm took this opportunity to concentrate on completing the construction for large anchor handlers and deep sea rig ships in its yard.

曾淵滄教路 05.02.14: 理財要按部就班 長期投資才是王道

理財要按部就班 長期投資才是王道

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
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