Saturday, January 25, 2014

Kerry Logistics -The load runners (CIMB)

Kerry Logistics Network
Current HK$13.92
Target HK$16.00
The load runners

With intra-Asia trade links developing exponentially, the market for third-party logistics (3PL) providers in the region has grown as well. Kerry Logistics Network (KLN) has leveraged this need to become a prominent logistics service provider in Greater China and Asia.

We initiate coverage on KLN with an Add rating and an SOP-based target price of HK$16. Rising trade flows may be a catalyst, especially with a cyclical upswing of the economy. We also see sustained investor appetite for logistics exposure as the e-commerce sector expands further.

ICBC trust product default not a harbinger of bigger problems (CIMB)

 ICBC trust product default not a harbinger of bigger problems
Investors are increasingly asking themselves whether the recent problems with an ICBC trust product may be the harbinger of bigger problems for the banks sector or even the broader economy. Our view is that headline risk remains the primary risk as authorities continue moves to curb the shadow banking industry.

 What Happened
China banks have been under pressure as international media has reported that a trust product distributed by ICBC will probably default when due on 31 Jan. ICBC has announced that it will not bail out the product. Notably, this news has been well covered in the domestic media for several weeks. The trust product raised Rmb3bn in 2011 for the Shanxi Zhenfu Energy group, a coal miner that subsequently collapsed. Our understanding is that, in line with most such products, ICBC is under no contractual obligation to bail out the product.

CNOOC -Headwinds in the near term (CIMB)

CNOOC Limited
Current HK$13.96
Target HK$17.60
Headwinds in the near term

 Production growth in FY14 to be lower-than-expected due to slow project executionat CNOOC, while its volume growth is expected to deliver in FY15We have adjusted our earnings in FY13/14/15 by +5%/-1%/+5% accordingly and reduced our target price to HK$17.6.

What Happened
CNOOC released its business strategy previewfor 2014 with a production target of 422-435mmboe,including 69mmboe from Nexen. It has 7-10 new projects scheduled to come onstream in 2014.We expect the FY14 capex plan to be Rmb105bn-120bn (including Nexen).The FY10-15 production growth target remains unchanged at 6-10%CAGR.

曹仁超:马年炒趋势 不要买大细




与股神对话 巴菲特投资16问

与股神对话 巴菲特投资16问
Created 01/20/2014 - 16:37



CNOOC -Downgrade to NEUTRAL on lower production growth (CS)

Downgrade to NEUTRAL
Price (20 Jan 14 , HK$) 13.96
TP (prev. TP HK$) 16.00 (20.00)
New report: Downgrade to NEUTRAL on lower production growth

● At its annual Strategy Preview on 20 January, CNOOC announced its 2014 production target (ex Nexen) of 0.6-4.3% YoY growth. This is below our forecast of 8%, and significantly below consensus expectations of 10-12% growth.

● Management maintained 6-10% production CAGR for 2011-15, which we think is too stretched. We believe a 3-4% target is more likely, implying 11% 2015E growth vs the company's low-end guidance of 22%. With the disclosure of new projects, assuming peak production for all projects in 2015, and applying a 9% discount rate for the existing projects, CNOOC still needs to add 167kboe/d production in 2015 to hit the low bar of its guidance of 6%.

Friday, January 24, 2014

Yoma Strategic - A transitional year ahead (OCBC)

Yoma Strategic Holdings:
Fair value S$0.97
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.01
versus: Current price S$0.75
A transitional year ahead – Upgrade to BUY

We turn positive on Yoma and upgrade the stock to BUY with a higher fair value estimate of S$0.97 (versus S$0.84 previously). Our investment thesis rests on two key parts. First, our base case is for the Landmark acquisition to complete in 1H14. The accretion from this project makes up 41% of Yoma’s fair value estimate and we anticipate a successful acquisition to be a key price catalyst.

Mapletree Logistics Trust - Another stable quarter (CIMB)

Mapletree Logistics Trust
Current S$1.02.
Target S$1.11
Another stable quarter

▊ MLT’s 3QFY14 results were in line with consensus and our expectations, with this quarter’s DPU accounting for 26% of our full-year forecast and 9MFY14 for 76%. Revenue for the quarter grew 1% yoy, mainly a result of the weakening of the yen. During FY13/14, MLT hedged/derived more than 95% of its distributable income in SG$. We maintain our Hold rating with an unchanged DDM-based (discount rate: 8.1%) target price of S$1.11, as the REIT continues to seek opportunities to boost its earnings.

S-REIT - Not as muddy as it seems (CIMB)

Not as muddy as it seems
NEUTRAL - Maintained

▊ 2013 was a choppy year for S-REITs, with the market focused on the effects of QE tapering. We examine the possible trends and issues for S-REITs in 2014. Given the headwinds in various sub-sectors, high asset prices and rising financing costs (both equity and debt), REITs may have to look overseas for yield-accretive acquisitions. Amid rising risks and potentially higher interest rates, particularly in 2015, we remain Neutral on the sector, with SUN and FCT as our preferred picks.

Del Monte Pacific- Truly Sweet (20)16? (CIMB)

Del Monte Pacific
Current S$0.62
Target S$1.14
Truly Sweet (20)16?

▊ We stated in our initiation report in Mar 2013 that the key re-rating catalyst of earnings growth driven by the favourable changes in 2015 would lead to stronger earnings for Del Monte Pacific (DMPL) in FY15. The ambitious proposal to acquire Del Monte Foods (DMF) in the US, if successful, could result in a truly sweet (20)16 for the company. In this note, we provide an update on DMPL’s operations and the proposed acquisition’s financing structure. We keep our target price of S$1.14, based on 17.5x CY15 P/E (6-year average). The upcoming circular on the proposed acquisition will provide clarity. The re-rating catalysts are: 1) the completion of the acquisition by end-Feb, 2) confirmed financing details, and 3) a clearer business strategy.

曾淵滄專欄 24.01.14:製造業收縮不用怕



First REIT: Ends FY13 with 7.52 S cents DPU (OCBC)

First REIT:
Fair value S$1.19
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.083
versus: Current price S$1.055
Ends FY13 with 7.52 S cents DPU

First REIT (FREIT) reported FY13 gross revenue and DPU growth of 44.5% and 14.3% (excluding exceptional gains distribution of 0.68 S cent in FY12) to S$83.3m and 7.52 S cents, and closely matched our revenue and DPU forecast of S$83.2m and 7.54 S cents, respectively. Looking ahead, we believe FREIT’s key priority in any lease terms negotiation for new acquisitions would be to maintain its base rental denomination in SGD to minimise its FX risk. We trim our FY14 and FY15 DPU forecasts marginally by 1.5%, on lower revenue and higher finance costs assumptions. But as we roll forward our valuations, our DDM-derived fair value estimate inches up from S$1.18 to S$1.19. Maintain BUY on FREIT as FY14F distribution yield remains attractive at 7.9%.

Thursday, January 23, 2014

M1 -Dividend surprise (CIMB)

M1 Limited  
Current S$3.24
Target S$3.80
Dividend surprise

▊ While M1’s FY13 core net profit missed our estimate (94% of our forecast), its dividend exceeded our raised expectations. The earnings miss was largely due to higher-than-expected opex. However, its core net profit met consensus expectations (98% of FY13 estimates). M1 proposed a final DPS of 7.1 Scts and a special DPS of 7.1 Scts, bringing the full-year total to 21 Scts (121% payout), up 44% yoy. The take-up of tiered data plans surged 17% pts qoq to 49%, which we believe offset the lower international roaming revenues. We cut our FY14-15 EPS by 6-14% and DCF-based (WACC 7.2%) target price by 7.3%. However, M1 remains an Add with the dividend surprise and rapid take-up of tiered data plans acting as likely re-rating catalysts.

Ascendas REIT - Buffered for downside (MKE)

Ascendas REIT -
Share Price: SGD2.15
Target Price: SGD2.30
Buffered for downside

3QFY3/14 results in line with market expectations.

AREIT still has SGD93.6m worth of development and asset enhancement works, which are scheduled for completion in 1Q14-2Q15, serving as buffers for downside risk.

Capital value still at risk. We see AREIT’s success closely intertwined with Singapore’s economic restructuring efforts. We reiterate HOLD with unchanged TP of SGD2.30.

UMS Holdings - Cream of the dividend crop (MKE)

UMS Holdings -
Share Price: SGD0.59
Target Price: na
Cream of the dividend crop

We like UMS for its high dividend per share (2013 YTD: 3 cents, 2010-12: 5 cents, with a special dividend of 1 cent in 2010-11). If there is a special dividend in FY13 as well, yield will exceed 10% at the current share price.

Net margins already exceed 20% even with low utilisation rate of 60-70%. Higher utilisation on more volume from Applied Materials and new business could boost margins, enhancing cash flow further and its ability to pay dividends.

Halcyon Agri - Malaysian Entry Sealed (UOBKH)

Halcyon Agri Corp -
Share Price S$0.81
Target Price S$0.95
Malaysian Entry Sealed

• Halcyon Agri Corp (Halcyon) announced on 16 January the completion of the acquisition of two natural rubber (NR) processing factories in Ipoh, Malaysia together with all associated buildings, plant and machinery and four plots of land on which the assets are located and operated.

• Following the acquisition, CLS Sdn Bhd and its wholly-owned subsidiary Hevea CLS Sdn Bhd have become indirect wholly-owned subsidiaries of the company.





Rotary Eng Ltd - Leaving SATORP behind (AM)

Rotary Eng Ltd -
Leaving SATORP behind

On track for recovery in 2014. We met up with Rotary’s CFO Mr Phillip Choo and Financial Controller Mr Cheong Yew Meng to get an update on the company’s progress going into 2014. We are heartened to hear that the company is well on track in its path to recovery.

The SATORP project that was beset with issues in the last 2 years has achieved financial closure in 4Q13.

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Ascendas REIT -Positivity dampened (CIMB)

Ascendas REIT
Current S$2.15
Target S$2.36
Positivity dampened

▊ AREIT 3QFY14 revenue rose by 6.4% yoy while DPU fell by 2.2% yoy. 9MFY14 DPU accounted for 77% of our FY14 forecast. As the industrial market in Singapore remains challenging and the rental market is expected to slow due to the high supply, we have lowered our FY14/15 revenue forecast by 1.4% and raise our risk-free rate by 30bp to 3.7% to account for a higher interest rates environment. Maintain Hold rating with a slightly lower DDM-based (discount rate: 7.7%) target price of S$2.36.

Cambridge Industrial Trust - Year of repositioning (CIMB)

Cambridge Industrial Trust -
Current S$0.70
Target S$0.80
Year of repositioning

CIT's 4Q13 revenue and NPI growth came in at -3.1% yoy and +1.8% yoy respectively. These results translate into 24% and 25% of our respective 4QFY13 estimates. Together with the previous 9M earnings, full-year revenue and DPU were in line with our expectations, meeting 98% and 99% of our respective FY13 estimates.

Given another proactive year ahead (in terms of managing and repositioning its portfolio) coupled with interest savings and a strong balance sheet, we maintain our Add call with an unchanged DDM-based target price (discount rate: 8.2%) of S$0.80.

Yoma Strategic - Overachieved on less tax expense (CIMB)

Yoma Strategic Holdings
Current S$0.73
Target S$0.75
Overachieved on less tax expense

▊ Yoma’s 9MFY3/14 revenue and operating profit were generally in line with our expectation. However, 9M14 core PATMI achieved 106% of our full-year forecast due to lower-than-expected tax expense. We revise up our FY14 EPS estimate by 14.8% from 0.83 Scts to 0.95 Scts due to lower tax expense, but maintain the FY15-16 earnings forecast. The upward adjustment of FY14 EPS has minimum impact on our FY15 RNAV. Our target price stays at S$0.75 (based on 1x FY15 RNAV). Maintain the Reduce recommendation. The upward adjustment of FY14 EPS has minimum impact on our FY15 RNAV. And given the still unconfirmed Landmark acquisition, our current target price stays at S$0.75. Maintain the Reduce recommendation.

Genting Hong Kong - From Macau to the Philippines (CIMB)

Genting Hong Kong
Current US$0.43
Target US$0.57
From Macau to the Philippines

We remain positive on GENHK as a RNAV value play despite negative newsflow coming from Macau and the Philippines. GENHK could be forking out capital to develop its Macau landbank well before securing any gaming facilities. In the meantime, Resorts World Manila’s (RWM) 4Q13 GGR was weak and we cut our EPS by 3-11% accordingly.

Nevertheless, we remain positive on the Philippines which should provide a key catalyst. Our target price is revised downwards based on a 20% discount to GENHK’s RNAV. We maintain our Add recommendation.





Rotary Engineering - Key Takeaways From Management Meeting (UOBKH)

Rotary Engineering -
Share Price S$0.630
Target Price S$0.880
Key Takeaways From Management Meeting

• Award of the RAPID contract will be later than expected. According to management, Petronas is still evaluating the tenders for the RAPID project but will probably announce the results only in 2H14, later than the 1Q14 as initially expected. As a recap, the Petronas RAPID project has a contract size of approximately US$700m-1b and will significantly bump up Rotary’s orderbook if they manage to secure it. In addition, the internal engineering and design department has already started work on the tank design and as a contingency plan, is able to offer their service to the main contractor if they fail to secure this project.

Tuesday, January 21, 2014

Yoma Strategic -Good progress (DBSV)

Yoma Strategic Holdings:    
STI : 3,140.44
BUY S$0.73
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.02
Good progress
•3QFY14 results in line, driven by sale of more LDR at Star City and tourism income
•Property sales healthy, construction progressing
•Star City, Landmark to underpin future earnings  

Golden Agri-Resources: Valuations look less pricey (OCBC)

Golden Agri-Resources:
Fair value S$0.50
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.010
versus: Current price S$0.525
Valuations look less pricey

Despite a disappointing set of 3Q13 results, Golden Agri-Resources’ (GAR) share price rose to a high of S$0.61 on 18 Nov, likely buoyed by more signs that CPO (crude palm oil) prices are stabilizing around current levels (MYR2500/ton). However, as noted in our report dated 20 Nov, we believe that the run-up in share price looked overdone. And true enough, GAR’s share price has since corrected over 14% from that high. Nevertheless, with recent correction in share price, we note that GAR is just 5% above our unchanged fair value of S$0.50 (based on 13.5x FY14F EPS). As such, we upgrade our rating from Sell to HOLD.

Singapore Press Holdings: A soft landing for ad revenues (OCBC)

Singapore Press Holdings:
Fair value S$4.14
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.22
versus: Current price S$4.00
A soft landing for ad revenues

FY13 figures mostly in line
Cost savings of S$19m p.a. ahead
S$100m New Media Fund

1QFY14 results within expectations
1QFY14 PATMI dipped 6.6% YoY to S$88.8m mostly due to lower contributions from the property segment after the SPH REIT spin-off and softer numbers from the core print business.

Mapletree Logistics Trust - First acquisition of the year (CIMB)

Mapletree Logistics Trust
Current S$1.05
Target S$1.11
First acquisition of the year

▊ Amid a tight acquisition market, MLT recently announced its proposed acquisition of an industrial warehouse in Iskandar Malaysia – its fourth property in this area upon completion. Although we are positive on the deal, the impact on earnings is expected to be limited. We maintain our Hold rating and DDM-based (discount rate: 8.1%) target price.

曾淵滄專欄 21.01.14:玩股仔切忌賭身家




TEE Land -Rewarding Shareholders After Higher YoY Profits (VR)

TEE Land Ltd
Increase Exposure
Rewarding Shareholders After Higher YoY Profits
 Intrinsic Value S$0.545•
 Prev Closing S$0.315•

 TEE Land Ltd (TEE Land) recently announced its 2QFY14 results with a 23.3% decrease in revenue to S$2.4m (2QFY13: S$3.2m) and an 82.9% increase in gross profit to S$1.1m (2QFY13: S$0.6m). This was due to fewer revenue recognition from the existing projects, with revenue recognized for The Peak @ Cairnhill 1 and rental revenue from the ‘Workotel’ in New Zealand. This takes TEE Land 1HFY14 revenue to S$16m with gross profit coming in at S$2.7m. PATMI for 2QFY14 stood at S$1.6m, which was mainly boosted by an S$1.7m contribution from the share of associates. The company is also declaring an interim dividend of S$0.005/share.

Monday, January 20, 2014

SILVERLAKE AXIS - Empowering Growth in ASEAN banks (Phillip)

 Target Price (SGD)1.02
Closing Price (SGD)0.92
Empowering Growth in ASEAN banks

Investment Merits

  • Capitalising on regional demand for core banking transformations, with about  RM300  million  project  backlog  and  poised  to  win  further contracts
  • Future  recurring  revenue  stream  generated  with  each  successful implementation of its licensed software system.

Olam International -A mixed bag (MKE)

Olam International
Share Price: SGD1.55
Target Price: SGD1.57
A mixed bag

Olam’s trading portfolio is practically immune to a potential drop in hard commodity demand.
A longer-term concern is its growth outlook following a significant cutback on capex for the next three years.
Short-term risks include lower commodity prices and uncertain outlook for coffee and cotton trading. Maintain HOLD.

Noble Group -China exposure a big concern (MKE)

Noble Group
Share Price: SGD1.035
Target Price: SGD1.07
China exposure a big concern

 Noble has the strongest balance sheet among the commodity traders under our coverage.
 One big concern for us is its substantial exposure to coal and iron ore, which are most sensitive to the change in China’s commodity consumption pattern.
 Maintain HOLD and TP of SGD1.07.

Wilmar International -Well positioned (MKE)

Wilmar International
Share Price: SGD3.27
Target Price: SGD4.30
Well positioned

 Wilmar is our top BUY for 2014.
 We believe it will benefit from stabilising soybean crushing margins, benign CPO price and a strong financial position.
 Our TP of SGD4.30 is based on 14x FY14E P/E.

Top commodity trader pick for 2014
Wilmar continues to be our top pick among the SGX-listed commodity traders. It offers better earnings visibility, clear catalysts and strong financial position. We reiterate our BUY call with a target price of SGD4.30, pegged to 14x FY14E P/E.





Commodity Traders -In a state of flux (MKE)

Commodity Traders -In a state of flux

2014 looks set to be a year of transformation for commodity traders, with demand from China slowing and a stronger USD coming into play. Maintain Neutral.

The winners could be companies with little or no exposure to hard commodities, fewer upstream plantations or mining operations, stronger balance sheets and lower cost of debt.

Wilmar fits the profile and is our top pick in the sector. Reiterate BUY and TP of SGD4.30.

Sunday, January 19, 2014

曾淵滄-股市资讯专栏 17.01.2014-中国新股上市热潮 ,小心为上!

中国新股上市热潮 ,小心为上!
文: 曾渊沧博士 2014年01月17日 曾渊沧博士专栏



Gamuda - A Good Proxy To Malaysia’s Construction Play (UOBKH)

Gamuda (GAM MK)
Share Price RM4.61
Target Price RM5.43
A Good Proxy To Malaysia’s Construction Play

We recently met with Gamuda and understand that in the coming months, the company expects the formal approval of MRT Line 2 by the Cabinet. The project would likely need two years to be shovel-ready. Also, the company has secured 40% in acceptance for its KESAS offer, bringing its holding to 70%. Next year, we expect newsflow for the Gemas JB double tracking to gain momentum which we believe would favour Gamuda. Maintain BUY. Target price: RM5.43.

Muhibbah Engineering - The mojo is oil & gas infra (CIMB)

Muhibbah Engineering -
Current RM2.38
Target RM3.05
The mojo is oil & gas infra

At our Malaysia Corporate Day yesterday, management reiterated that the group's prospects for 2014 will be driven by oil & gas and port/marine-related infra contracts but the positive surprise was that it is also vying for an oil & gas infra job in Cambodia. Turnaround prospects look more exciting domestically, backed by Petronas's RM60bn capex p.a., which should benefit the group's cranes and shipyard divisions. EPS is unchanged but there is upside potential. Our target price remains pegged to a 30% RNAV discount. Potentially strong order flows are the stock's main appeal, with likely job wins in 1H14 as medium-term catalysts. Maintain Add.

WCT -Fundamentals Remain Intact (M&A)

WCT Holdings Berhad
Current Price (RM)RM2.39
New Target Price (RM)RM2.78
“Fundamentals Remain Intact”

YTD financial review. WCT Holdings Bhd (WCT) earnings are set to end the year in an upbeat mode driven rapid implementation of various projects. 2014 outlook is no less exciting as the company is start the year with RM3 billion orderbook. WCT posted higher revenue of RM1.4 billion (+18% y-o-y) in 9M13 on the back of higher contribution from construction and property development division which rose by 15% y-o-y and 32% y-o-y to RM936 million and RM410 million respectively. 9M13 operating profit rose to RM225 million (+17% y-o-y) with the margin remains intact at 16% (9M12: 16%).

Malaysia 2014 -CONSUMER SECTOR -Challenging 2014 (M&A)

Strategy Outlook- Malaysia 2014
“Challenging 2014”
Outlook. We expect Malaysian consumers will face a few challenges next year. The main challenges are the
1) rising cost of living and
2) decelerating in purchasing power.

These are due to the increase in the prices of goods and services. The recent increase in fuel prices and electricity tariff hike effective by 1st January 2014 would be among the cause of acceleration in inflation. We have a NEUTRAL call on the sector with Parkson (BUY; TP: RM4.29) as our top pick.

Malaysia 2014 -Telecommunication Sector -4G Play (M&A)

Strategy Outlook- Malaysia 2014
Telecommunication Sector
“4G Play”
Telecommunication sector is an Overweight on i) stable dividend ii) continuing positive net addition both prepaid and postpaid and iii) potential wider margin of 4G factor iv) goodies from Budget 2014, HSBB 2.0. Telekom is our Top Pick with a BUY call and fair value of RM6.20.

Penetration rate growing wild. The penetration rate refers to the total subscriptions divided by the total population and multiplied by 100.

Malaysia 2014 -Rubber Gloves Sector -Continue Growing(M&A)

Strategy Outlook- Malaysia 2014
Rubber Gloves Sector
“Continue Growing”
2014 Outlook. We believe natural rubber glove industry will continue to grow as demand will remain steady in tandem with the rising popularity and legislation to use rubber gloves and capability of exporting more rubber-based products. Nitrile rubber glove will continue to grow rapidly driven by the increase in demand especially from US and Europe due to its awareness of hygiene and not to mention strict government regulations. The technological expertise in the rubber glove industry is highly looked upon and has placed Malaysia's rubber-based products such as tyres and gloves among the best in the world. We have a Neutral call on the sector driven by steady demand and neutral impact of the fuel price hike and GST. We have a Buy call on Supermax (TP: RM2.85), and Hold call on Hartalega (TP: RM8.13) and Top Gloves (TP: RM6.23).
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
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