Saturday, January 18, 2014

Dr ChanYanChong-Commentary 17.01.2014 -Stay Cautious! IPO Fever Heats Up Chinese Stock Market

17 JANUARY 2014
Stay Cautious! IPO Fever Heats Up Chinese Stock Market

Currently, no matter if you are looking at the Singapore or Hong Kong stock markets, things look pretty boring if you are just interested in the indices, which are basically going nowhere. However, punters are still pouncing on the initial public offering (IPO) shares in Hong Kong and the feverish energy is not dissimilar to the tail end of a bull run. With many IPO shares appreciating by as much as three times within a month of listing, I can only use ‘craze’ to describe this phenomenon.

As the stock market becomes more polarised, we are also seeing a steady increase in the volume of cheap second- and third-rung stocks being transacted. As an example, on 10 January, more than HK$200 million worth of shares were traded. Out of the popular second- and third-rung concept stocks that have made it into the top 50 hot stocks of the Hong Kong Exchange, more than 10 are even posing a challenge to the blue chips. Apparently, some heavy-weight investors are starting to join in the fray to punt after these popular concept stocks.

曾淵滄教路 08.01.14: 網購銷售破紀錄 嘉里物流最受惠

網購銷售破紀錄 嘉里物流最受惠


超人力撐 李澤楷動作多





Malaysia 2014 -PROPERTY SECTOR -Uncertainty to Loom (M&A)

Strategy Outlook- Malaysia 2014
“Uncertainty to Loom”
Property sector is NEUTRAL to us as higher cost of living, the risk of tighter lending requirement and harsh measures under the Budget 2014 could temper buying sentiment. S&P Setia (Hold: TP: RM3.51) is our top pick as the imminent departure of Tan Sri Liew Kee Sin is likely to cause only a small ripple.

Sell-down was over. Pre-Budget 2014‟s announcement, property stocks hit the snag as the policy to cool the property prices has led a massive sell down in property stocks. The sell down which started in September had badly impacted the developer especially those that has large property exposures in Johor area. It would take at least couple of months for the developers and buyers to adjust with the regulatory changes.

Malaysia 2014 -OIL AND GAS SECTOR -Ready to Oil the Market (M&A)

Strategy Outlook- Malaysia 2014
“Ready to Oil the Market”
Overweight. We have an Overweight call on oil and gas sector as we foresee earnings resilient towards in the coming years underpinned by the acceleration in Petronas RM300 billion capex and major contract awards for the inspection, repair and maintenance (IRM), North Malay Basin and T&I jobs.

Our top picks for the sector are SapuraKencana (BUY, TP: RM4.69), Alam Maritim (BUY, TP: RM1.90), Dialog (BUY, TP: RM3.32) and Dayang (BUY, TP: RM6.27).

Malaysia 2014 -Healthcare Sector -On Steady Path (M&A)

Strategy Outlook- Malaysia 2014
Healthcare Sector
“On Steady Path”
Having grown by leaps and bounds since the last few years, it is time for the sector to consolidate and fill up all the capacity that has been built. With no black swan that could temper the sector‟s steady growth, we are NEUTRAL on the sector in 2014.

Being recession proof industry has its advantage as proven in the players steady net income increase by 22% y-o-y in FY13. With demand not expected to be dented following the rising cost of living, we expect the sector‟s net income growth to continue accelerating and growing by 3% y-o-y in 2014, proving that the sector is a safe bet during the good and bad times

Strategy Outlook- Malaysia 2014 -CONSTRUCTION SECTOR -Vigorous Outlook (M&A)

Strategy Outlook- Malaysia 2014
“Vigorous Outlook”
Rail project expansion. We are positive on the long-term outlook for construction sector as the government is willing to spend RM160.0 billion on railway related projects until 2020 to improve the nation‟s public transportation system. The biggest chunk of railway project expansion may include
MRT 2 (RM25.0 billion),
MRT 3 (RM25.0 billion),
KL-Singapore High Speed Rail (RM30.0 billion) and
East Coast Rail Route (RM60.0 billion).

Strategy Report: Malaysia 2014 Outlook - Regain, Resume, Reaccelerate (M&A)

Strategy Report: Malaysia 2014 Outlook
2014 Year End KLCI Target: 1,980
2013 Year End KLCI: 1,866
 3R: Regain, Resume, Reaccelerate

2014 year-end FBMKLCI target of 1,980 based on forward PER of 17.4x, broadly in line with the pre-liquidity rally average PER (2000-2008). With the market gradually entering normalisation period following the deceleration of US quantitative easing measures in 2014, we believe the local funds will be supportive of the local market reinvigorated by the reacceleration of the economy as the impact of fiscal consolidation will finally bear its fruits. We believe foreign institutions will re-enter the local market in rising speed in the second half of 2014 boosted by improving economic dynamics chiefly emanating from the GST implementation in 2015 and improving fiscal condition.

Friday, January 17, 2014

AirAsia stock poised to take off: CEO

Investors may have fallen out of love with Asia's largest budget airline, but the founder and chief executive of AirAsia told CNBC the indicators are there for its share price to recover.

"When people begin to look at it on a macro scale, then our share price will begin to return to where it should be. We're trading at NTA (net tangible assets) at the moment which is fairly ridiculous, our margins are still up there, our cash [flow] is very strong but we're in a good part of the world so we're optimistic," Tony Fernandes told CNBC Europe's "Squawk Box."

Shares of Asia's largest budget airline by passengers and fleet size have fallen 19 percent over the last 12 months with its units in the Philippines and Indonesia struggling to turn a profit and are not predicted to do so for two years.

Keppel Land -Deep value still hard to ignore (MKE)

Keppel Land -
Share Price: SGD3.15
Target Price: SGD4.60
Deep value still hard to ignore

■ Reiterate BUY on KepLand with a TP of SGD4.60 despite the13.3% drop in share price since October after it announcedits 3Q13 results.

■ At 0.76x P/BV and 0.51x P/RNAV, valuations are still veryattractive, especially if part of its RNAV can be realised bythe potential sale of MBFC Tower 3 (valued at ~SGD1.1b).

CNMC Goldmine -Reiterates Outperform Outlook on CNMC (VR)

CNMC Goldmine Holdings Limited
 Intrinsic Value  S$0.80
 Previous Close  S$0.240
Reiterates Outperform Outlook on CNMC

 CNMC Goldmine Holdings Limited announced in Dec 2013 that
a) it has formed a joint venture with the Perak state government to explore tin mining and
b) it will be paying its maiden dividend of 0.1 S cents per share on 20 Jan 2014. We reiterate our highly positive outlook on CNMC on the back of increased production following the completion of leaching pad 2 in Sep 2013.

Amtek Engineering -Signs of revenue bottoming; focus on margins (CS)

Amtek Engineering Ltd.
Price (13 Jan 14 , S$) 0.49
TP (prev. TP S$) 0.56 (0.56)
Maintain NEUTRAL
Notes from CS ASEAN Conference: Signs of revenue bottoming; focus on margins

● We hosted Amtek at the CS ASEAN Conference last week.

● After more than two years, there are signs of a bottoming in revenues: (1) The record tooling sales seen last year are finally driving revenue growth from new product launches (there is still upside left). (2) Industry segments like enclosures, consumer and automotive should continue to see an improvement in revenue growth. (3) Amtek is seeing good traction in new segments such as Life Sciences. (4) Even in slower growing segments, Amtek is trying to boost revenue growth by winning new customers.

曾淵滄專欄 17.01.14:網購物流旺締雙贏




Singapore Press Holdings - Lack of catalysts (MKE)

Singapore Press Holdings -
Lack of catalysts;
Share Price: SGD4.00
Target Price: SGD4.18
maintain HOLD

SPH’s 1QFY8/14 results were in line with market expectations.

The property division will likely be its growth driver in the short term as the core media business continues to languish.

In our view, the risk is that SPH might have to cut its FY8/14E dividend if it does not raise payout ratio to above 100%. Maintain HOLD.

Thursday, January 16, 2014

Triyards -Waiting patiently for the elusive order wins (NRA)

Triyards Holdings
Current Price S$0.67
Fair Value S$0.83
Waiting patiently for the elusive order wins

 Earnings in line. Triyards’ 1Q14 net profit of US$7.3m was in line with our estimates as the higher-than-expected revenues were offset by lower-thanexpected gross profit margins. We maintain our forecasts but will be keeping an eye on how the group progresses with order wins in the next quarters. Our fair value remains at S$0.83, 7x FY15 PER. With potential upside of 24%, maintain Overweight.

SPH REIT -Key takeaways from post-inaugural results investor luncheon (CS)

Price (13 Jan 14 , S$) 1.00
TP (prev. TP S$) 1.05 (1.05)
Maintain NEUTRAL
Key takeaways from post-inaugural results investor luncheon

● DPU for the period of 24 Jul-13 (listing) to 30 Nov-13 of 1.86S¢ was 2% above prospectus forecast due to utilities savings, lower marketing, property taxes and savings with the waiver to prepare FY13 financials. DPU for the Nov-13 quarter was 1.30S¢, or 25% of our FY14E's 5.22S¢.

● Twenty seven leases were signed during the period, with 11.7% positive rent reversion, led by Paragon, +12.4%. Most of the leases expiring in 2014 (mall opened in May-2011, i.e., first lease term) have been renewed/re-let and more than >90% of the tenants by NLA have committed for a second lease term (likely to see positive rent reversions). Both malls are 100% occupied.

Tiger Airways-Expecting A Weak 3QFY14, But Counterparty Risk Will Be Substantially Lowered (UOBKH)

Tiger Airways
Share Price S$0.495
Target Price S$0.54
Expecting A Weak 3QFY14, But Counterparty Risk Will Be Substantially Lowered

A weak 3QFY14 is likely priced in. Still, Tigerair’s efforts to manage capacity and the recent shift to North Asia have to be lauded as it will be partnering with a much stronger principal than in Southeast Asia. Aside from lowered risk, Tigerair will also receive higher lease income from the new venture. Maintain HOLD. Target price lowered from S$0.58 to S$0.54. Suggested entry level: S$0.47, based on 15% required return.

OUE -Commercial REIT – Preliminary Prospectus (Phillip)

OUE Limited
Target Price (SGD) 2.78
Forecast Dividend (SGD) 0.05
Closing Price (SGD) 2.48
Commercial REIT – Preliminary Prospectus

• OUE Commercial REIT lodged preliminary prospectus with MAS
• Initial Portfolio – The OUE Bayfront Property and The Lippo Plaza Property
• IPO to raise S$346 million
• Indicative Distribution Yield of 6.8% in 2014, 6.89% in 2015
• Maintain Accumulate Rating with revised TP $2.78

SPH REIT -Uplift from Paragon (DBSV)

HOLD S$0.99 STI : 3,145.41
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.97
Uplift from Paragon

• Resilient results supported by strong performance of Paragon Mall
• Minimal risks for Clementi Mall as most of expiring leases have been renewed
• Maintain HOLD, TP S$0.97

Resilient results. SPH REIT reported results for the period July 24, 2013 to Nov 30, 2013 which were in line with expectations.

Tiger Airways - Disappointing pricing (CIMB)

Tiger Airways -
Current S$0.51
Target S$0.48
Disappointing pricing

In our 6 January report, we had hoped that TGR would get at least S$12.5m for its 40% stake in Tigerair Philippines. However, the agreement with CEB was for only S$8.9m, 30% below our expectation. TGR also surprisingly agreed to bear S$22.4m in TAP liabilities.

Thus, TGR will report a loss of S$13.5m versus our expectations of a gain, leading us to downgrade our FY14 reported net profit and keep the Reduce call. Core EPS in FY14 is reduced 1% for housekeeping matters but raised in FY15-16 due to the removal of TGR’s share of TAP’s losses. This raises our target price slightly, still based on 1x CY14 P/BV. The de-rating catalysts include tough Australian and Indonesian markets.





ASIAN PAY TELEVISION TRUST-initiating coverage (Limtan)

S$0.785-APTT SP

We are initiating coverage on Asian Pay Television Trust (APTT) with a Buy rating mainly due: 1) attractive dividend yield of about 10.5% coupled with 0.86x price to book; 2)Utility-like, subscription-based business model with substantially all payments made in advance and 3) growing subscriber base and stabilizing Broadband ARPU through various up-sell and cross-sell initiatives. We are ascribing a fair value of S$0.915, premised on FY2014 target yield of 9.0%.

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

IJM Land -Attractive valuations but a tough year ahead (CS)

IJM Land Berhad
Price (13 Jan 14 , RM) 2.65
TP (prev. TP RM) 3.60 (3.80)
Attractive valuations but a tough year ahead

● The tightening measures announced during the Budget come into effect in 2014 and will hurt the operating environment for the property developers. Both developers and buyers have been adopting a wait-and-see approach which will lower property transactions in 1H14, in our view.

Frasers Centrepoint Ltd - Ready for the big league (CIMB)

Frasers Centrepoint Ltd -
Current S$1.52
Target S$2.06
Ready for the big league

We believe FCL is significantly underpriced, backed by its portfolio ofundervalued assets with redevelopment potential and S$3.2bn presalesyet to be booked. The capacity to lift its asset recycling/ AUM platformis considerable with TCC on board. The stock’s low free float is stillprohibitive for large investors but we think this will change over time.


Share Price S$0.645
Changes Abound

• Potential margin uplift from in-house PET bottling for Del Monte Philippines. Currently, the bottling of branded beverages sold in the Philippines is being outsourced at a loss. The contract will terminate in Aug 14 and the group intends to bring the process in-house. Management estimates the segment’s gross margin will improve to 20-25% from the current 9% due to this move.

Refuelling biodiesel demand (CIMB)

Refuelling biodiesel demand
We anticipate a better year for palm oil producers in 2014 as they are likely to enjoy higher selling prices for their palm products, lower fertiliser costs and a slower rise in labour costs. Also we expect M&A activities in this sector to remain healthy.

However, the sector's valuation is not cheap – it is trading in line with its historical average P/E - and we continue to expect challenges in reining in costs and growing the business. We maintain our Neutral stance on the sector. Our picks are First Resources (upstream exposure), Wilmar (biodiesel exposure), Ta Ann (mid-cap palm oil player), Astra Agro and London Sumatra (exposure to weak rupiah).

Triyards 1QFY14: Awaiting Its First Drilling Jack-up Rig Order (UOBKH)

Triyards Holdings
Share Price S$0.68
Target Price S$0.87
1QFY14: Awaiting Its First Drilling Jack-up Rig Order

Triyards reported revenue and net profit of US$90.1m (+69% yoy) and US$7.3m (13% yoy) respectively for 1QFY14. It was a lumpy quarter due to faster-than-expected recognition of orderbook due to higher contributions from the subsea construction vessel, Lewek Constellation, and the advance completion of three SEUs. Gross margin was lowered by 6.2ppt due to a different project mix. Share price is consolidating, awaiting Triyards’ first drilling jack-up rig order. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$0.87.

曾淵滄專欄 15.01.14:玩三四線股難發達



SPH REIT: Steady start to FY14 (OCBC)

Fair value S$0.99
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.053
versus: Current price S$0.99
Steady start to FY14

SPH REIT reported DPU of 1.86 S cents for the period from 24 Jul (listing date) to 30 Nov 2013. This is largely consistent with our projection of 1.84 S cents. The better performance was mainly attributable to higher rental rates at Paragon and stable income from Clementi Mall.

Tuesday, January 14, 2014

Tiger Airways - Strategic alliance with Cebu Pacific; Sells TigerAir Philippines to Cebu (CS)

Tiger Airways
Price (07 Jan 14 , S$) 0.52
TP (prev. TP S$) 0.47 (0.47)
Strategic alliance with Cebu Pacific; Sells TigerAir Philippines to Cebu

● Tigerair is forming a strategic alliance with Cebu Pacific (Cebu) to collaborate on international and domestic routes from the Philippines. This is part of Tigerair’s asset light alliance strategy to accelerate growth without stretching its balance sheet.

Del Monte Pacific - Eyes on the Big Acquisition (MKE)

Del Monte Pacific -
Buy (unchanged)
Share price:SGD0.60 PHP22.80
Target price:
SGD1.00 (from SGD1.25)PHP35.20 (unchanged)
Eyes on the Big Acquisition

Correction overdone. Del Monte Pacific’s (DMPL) share price has corrected sharply by 25% in the past two months after the company announced a USD1.675b deal to acquire the consumer business of Del Monte Foods (DMF). We believe the slide can be attributed to the overhang of impending equity-raising exercises. Fresh financing details disclosed suggest that share dilution may be steeper than earlier expected. Even so, the correction is overdone in our view, considering the deal is still earnings accretive.

Global Invacom - Putting Its Past to Rest (VR)

Global Invacom Group Limited
Increase Exposure
Putting Its Past to Rest
 Intrinsic Value S$0.355
 Prev Closing Price S$0.190

 Global Invacom Group Limited (Invacom) seems to be putting its past to rest following the turnaround in its recent 1H FY13 results, successful rectification of the manufacturing business and penetration into the Asia region. The industry is tilting towards Invacom’s favor with growing satellite ground equipment purchases, increasing number of HDTV channels and smart TV ownership and need for more sophisticated satellite communication products. As such, we believe the company is poised to grow its revenue by approximately 18% in FY13 to US$110m and record PAT of approximately US$8.7m. Invacom is currently trading at an undemanding 3.9X FY14F P/E and 0.48X P/B vs the peers’ average of 20.4X and 1.8X. Recommend Increase Exposure with an intrinsic value of S$0.355.

Singapore REITs Dec-13 results season- What are we expecting and what to look out for? (CS)

Singapore REITs
Dec-13 results season-
What are we expecting and what to look out for?

● Most S-REITs will be reporting their Dec-13 quarter results (Nov- 13 results for SPH REIT) in the coming weeks. We highlight some key trends and datapoints to look out for in the upcoming results.

● Prime Grade A offices will likely see moderate improvements in rents and occupancies, while older offices may see downward pressure on rents due to flight to quality. Retail tenant sales for suburban malls should remain resilient, but some malls like Bedok Point, JCube and IMM may be impacted by new openings.

曾淵滄專欄14.01.14:敢玩新股 炒家豐收




SMRT Corporation - Recent share price weakness presents good Buying opportunity (DB)

SMRT Corporation
Price at 3 Jan 2014 (SGD) 1.16
Price target - 12mth (SGD) 1.72
Recent share price weakness presents good Buying opportunity

Stock now at 7-year low but prospects are bright
We upgraded SMRT to Buy in late 2013, given our anticipation of positive business reforms, which we believe will help drive a turnaround of SMRT’s operational performance from 2015. Post our upgrade, we highlighted investors’ skepticism around the political will to implement reforms and their timing.

Monday, January 13, 2014

Pacific Radiance - A Virtuous-Cycle OSV Business (UOBKH)

Pacific Radiance -
Share Price S$0.915
Target Price S$1.19
A Virtuous-Cycle OSV Business

Pacific Radiance is principally an offshore support vessel (OSV) provider in the oilfield services industry. The group is managed by a team of industry veterans headed by Executive Chairman Pang Yoke Min, who is noted for co-founding Jaya Holdings and was its Managing Director from 1981 to 2006. Under Pang’s stewardship, Jaya Holdings grew to be Asia’s largest OSV builder in the last oil cycle.

ST Engineering: Reducing peg to 19x FY14F EPS (OCBC)

ST Engineering:
Fair value S$3.91
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.17
versus: Current price S$3.88
Reducing peg to 19x FY14F EPS

Singapore Technologies Engineering (STE) had a good run from 31 Dec 2012 to 7 Nov 2013. Its share price rose 9.9%, outstripping the STI’s 1.1% increase over the same period. However, STE’s 3Q13 results, announced on 7 Nov, missed ours and the street's expectations and since then, STE’s share price has fallen 7.6% from S$4.20 to S$3.88 (versus a 2.4% decline for the STI). While the miss was in large part due to one-off items, we believe that investors have begun to apply lower valuations to STE to bring its multiples closer in line with its peers after the outperformance and with gradually less interest in yield plays such as STE due to the progressive tapering by the US Fed. Having re-examined STE’s peer group’s multiples, we lower our peg from 21x to 19x (applied to FY14F EPS of 20.6 S cents). We thus reduce our FV on STE from S$4.32 to S$3.91, and maintain a HOLD rating on STE on valuation grounds.

First Resources - Our pick of the crops (CIMB)

First Resources -
Current S$2.23
Target S$2.75
Our pick of the crops

First Resources is our top pick among the regional planters due to its superior operating efficiency over peers, strong FFB output growth prospects and attractive P/E valuations compared to peers. It is also expected to gain additional income from its refinery expansion in 2014.

We project that the group’s free cashflow will improve in FY14 due to the higher operating cashflow and lower capex spend. This could lead to better dividend payouts. Under our new rating structure, our rating changes from Outperform to Add. We maintain our S$2.75 target price, based on 12.3x CY14 P/E (1 s.d. above its 4-year mean). The re-rating catalysts are its strong FFB production and higher dividends.

Biosensors -Is privatisation on the cards? (CIMB)

Biosensors Int'l
Current S$0.88
Target S$1.19
Is privatisation on the cards?

▊ Share price volatility and enlarged trading volume of late have caught the attention of many investors. It is now harder for earnings to make any meaningful impact in the next two quarters and its bombed-out valuation and change in ownership suggest that the stock is no longer well owned. We think that the new shareholder, CITIC, could seek to enhance its investment value through more active participation, potentially even taking the company private. We keep our EPS estimates and SOP-based target price. We also keep our contrarian Add rating, which hinges on the instant success of product launches, regulatory approvals and M&A accretion.




Tiger Airways: Negotiating Tigerair Philippines transaction (OCBC)

Tiger Airways:
Fair value S$0.55
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.00
versus: Current price S$0.51
Negotiating Tigerair Philippines transaction

An online Philippine news portal, InterAkyson, reported last Friday that Cebu Pacific is in talks to acquire Tigerair Philippines (TRP) from Tiger Airways Holdings (TR). The article quoted an executive director of the Civil Aeronautics Board as saying that Cebu Pacific has filed an application to acquire 100% of TRP.

Sunday, January 12, 2014


Created 01/11/2014 - 11:50


Sunway - Aggressive job flow target (CIMB)

Sunway Bhd -
Current RM2.78
Target RM3.11
Aggressive job flow target

Sunway revealed during our Malaysia Corporate Day yesterday that it is targeting to secure RM2.5bn worth of new jobs this year, a positive surprise. This is on top of MRT 2 and driven by domestic building works. Property prospects continue to look good over the longer term, backed by its massive land bank in Iskandar. Our target price remains based on a 20% discount to RNAV. The stock's deep value arising from its huge domestic land bank is intact. Catalysts in 2014 hinge on positive news flow on job awards and more land banking. Two large tracts are currently in its sights. Maintain Add.

Expect China bad loans to rise in 2014: Andy Xie

【大市展望】麥樸思(Mark Mobius):今年港股升幅雙位數 資金有入亦有出

施永青展望港樓趨跌 曾淵滄指全球進入低通脹時代

Dry bulk led the recovery of shipping sector (MIDF)

Dry bulk led the recovery of shipping sector
Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which represents the weighted average of chartering rates for four different sizes of dry bulk carriers, maintained its recovery momentum. On year-on-year basis, the BDI posted a gain of circa 327% in 2013 and closed at 2,277 (figure 1) at the end of the year. The improvement was primarily attributable to the ramp up in iron ore stockpiling activities from China in 2H13 that resulted in the tightening supply of available vessels. In the long term, we expect the recovery of dry bulk rates to be sustainable due to China’s urbanization and infrastructure projects which remain the main drivers for the demand growth of dry bulk commodities.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
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