Saturday, January 4, 2014

2013 Stock Picks: 4th Quarter Review

| 03 JANUARY 2014
2013 Stock Picks: 4th Quarter Review
By Ong Qiuying and Nicholas Tan

2013 has indeed been a year of ups and downs for the Singapore market. As the year draws to a close, many questions come to mind as we review the happenings of 2013. How have we performed in the last lap of the race this quarter? What tidings will 2014 bring? What should be the next move for investors? Let us put some answers to these questions as we round up the performance of the stock picks of 2013 by the market experts and the Shares Investment team in 4Q13 and take a peek into the crystal ball with analysts on the outlook in 2014.

Malaysian Airlines -No Clear Strategy Just Yet (MEK)

Malaysian Airlines
Current price (MYR):0.31
Target price (MYR):0.29
No Clear Strategy Just Yet

Subdued 2013. MAS’ 9M13 core net losses widened by 53.6% YoY to MYR766.7m due to weak yields. MAS has deployed 17% capacity growth in 9M13, which was a massive oversupply to the market. This has forced it to drop its yields by an average of 12.8% in 2013-YTD, in order to fill up its seats and also gain market share.

AirAsia X - Unrivalled Growth Prospects (MKE)

AirAsia X
Current price (MYR): 0.995
Target price (MYR):1.30
Unrivalled Growth Prospects

Smooth sailing. AirAsia X’s 9M13 core net profit of MYR35.4m, from a core loss of MYR30.0m in 9M12, was slightly better than our expectations. Management is doing a good job in filling up the aircraft, maintaining decent yields and keeping unit cost under control. It has also successfully shielded itself from the fare war that is plaguing the domestic sector.

AirAsia -Cheap Relative to Peers (MKE)

Current price (MYR): 2.20
Target price (MYR): 2.80
Cheap Relative to Peers

Over punished, stock offers value. AirAsia’s 9M13 core net profit was down by 15.5% YoY due to the intensifying competition across the board. The share price has fallen 19.7% in 2013. We think this is overdone and the stock is in deep value compared to global peers based on PER and adjusted EV/EBITDAR metrics.

China Unicom : Interconnect savings to outweigh higher handset subsidies and broadband price cuts (CS)

China Unicom Hong Kong Ltd
Price (27 Dec 13 , HK$) 11.70
TP (prev. TP HK$) 19.10 (18.20)
Interconnect savings to outweigh higher handset subsidies and broadband price cuts

● The introduction of an asymmetrical interconnect regime, under which Unicom will pay Rmb0.04/min to China Mobile but still receive Rmb0.06/min will raise FY14 EBITDA by circa Rmb4.9 bn.

● Against this, while we would not over-exaggerate the impact of China Mobile’s launch of the iPhone in itself, the expectation of a higher total handset subsidy budget from China Mobile leads us to raise our gross Unicom subsidy forecast by Rmb2.1 bn and our cellular capex forecast by Rmb7.9 bn as competition intensifies.

曾淵滄教路 01.01.2014 -兵荒馬亂市 風險管理三大要素

兵荒馬亂市 風險管理三大要素



Friday, January 3, 2014

Dr ChanYanChong-Commentary 03.01.2014 -Fed Drops Bombshell In Unexpected Tapering Act

03 JANUARY 2014
Fed Drops Bombshell In Unexpected Tapering Act
By Dr Chan Yan Chong

This article is written over the last two days of 2013, during which the Straits Times Index ended the year 0.4 percent lower than its year-end level last year, faring even worse than Hong Kong. The Hang Seng Index closed last weekend 2.6 percent higher than end-2012, a modest performance which is better than nothing. Dow Jones Industrial Average was unassailable, closing the year 25.7 percent higher than the end of last year. Hong Kong stocks struggled to find their momentum as they are obviously weighed down by the performance of Chinese A-shares. The Shanghai Composite Index is currently 7.6 percent lower than last year-end. Singapore is also affected by Chinese A-shares, as well as the performance of its neighbours like Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia.





Frasers Commercial Trust : Hidden value (DBSV)

Frasers Commercial Trust
BUY S$1.27
STI : 3,167.43
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.46
Hidden value

• Operationally resilient, organic growth in FY14
• Expiry of master lease at Alexandra Technopark to reap significant earnings upside
• Maintain BUY and S$1.46 TP

Operationally resilient, organic growth in FY14. Performance, ex-divestments, continues to strengthen - 4Q13 net property income would have shown an increase of 7%, supported by resilient portfolio occupancy of 97.9%. FCOT’s rental income is also supported by a long weighted average lease expiry of 4.6 years. In FY14, the trust will be renewing close to 8.5% of its topline, of where expiring rents are c.10-15% lower than market rents in Singapore and 30% lower in Australia.

CapitaRetail China Trust : Growth Drivers in place (DBSV)

CapitaRetail China Trust
BUY S$1.33
STI : 3,167.43
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.60
Growth Drivers in place

• Growth engines humming in tune
• Inorganic drivers in place; highest DPU CAGR of 9.0%
• BUYm TP S$1.60

Growth engines humming in tune. The coming two years could be transformational for CRCT. After refining its portfolio tenant mix and the completion of various asset enhancements, CRCT’s mall portfolio is consistently seeing strong shopper traffic and tenant sales,

Vard Holdings: Closing The Year With a Big Order Win (DMG)

Vard Holdings: Closing The Year With a Big Order Win
 (NEUTRAL, SGD0.81, SGD0.85)

VARD’s latest order lifts its 2013 new order wins to NOK13.4bn and unbilled orderbook to NOK21bn. The win reflects the strong underlying demand for OSVs and specialised offshore vessels.

However, we maintain NEUTRAL on VARD, as its Brazilian operations will remain a drag on overall margins, while its 9.3x FY14F P/E valuation is not as appealing as other OSV shipbuilders.

Nam Cheong: Every Good Story Has Its Twists (DMG)

Nam Cheong: Every Good Story Has Its Twists
(BUY, SGD0.315, SGD0.45)

As expected, NCL announced a series of contract wins bringing FY13’s total vessels sold to 24 – a new record. The surprising twist was that the expected PSV was not among the sales – replaced by a MWV and three AHTS vessels for a combined USD66m in value. The PSV’s delivery schedule has been amended at customer’s requests.

曾淵滄專欄 03.01.14:中港齊炒股不炒市



Singapore REITs - Adjusting to the new normal (DBSV)

Singapore REITs - Adjusting to the new normal

• S-REITs to face rising cost of capital
• Prefer S-REITs with organic growth due to feweracquisition opportunities

S-REITs faced with rising cost of capital
We interpret theFED’s decision to begin tapering its monthly bond-buying programand at the same time keeping short-term interest rates low as asignal that “taper” and “rate hikes” are not synonymous events.As such, the yield curve will continue to remain steep, with rateson the longer-tenure 10-year bonds to remain elevated onexpectations of rising inflation.

Thursday, January 2, 2014


Created 12/31/2013 - 17:00



AirAsia - Time For Bottom Fishing (RHB)

AirAsia -
Time For Bottom Fishing

We  find  the  sharp  selldown  on  AIRA’s  shares  excessive  as  we  see  a positive  FY14  earnings  outlook,  bolstered  by  easing  competition  and cost efficiencies kicking in once KLIA2 opens for operation. Hence, we maintain our BUY call and MYR3.70 FV, based on a 12x target FY14 P/E. At the current FY14 P/E of 7.1x, we view the stock as a bargain.

STI Highlights Of 2013

31 DECEMBER 2013
STI Highlights Of 2013

Because of their sheer size, the 30 companies of the STI make up more than half of the market capitalisation of Singapore’s stock market. Like the stock market, these companies are diverse in terms of their geographical reach, relevant business sectors and the years that they have been serving us with products and services.

During the year, the STI held most of the relative strong gains of 2012 and had generated a total return of 2.6 percent as of the close on 27 December, 2013.


Created 12/30/2013 - 16:57



Experts’ Take: 2014 Singapore Stock Market Outlook

31 DECEMBER 2013
Experts’ Take: 2014 Singapore Stock Market Outlook
By Charlie Lau Suan Liat

The 2014 Stock Market Outlook for Singapore looks at best to be sustained around the closing of Straits Times Index on 31 December 2013 at 3,167 points.

That is to say the Singapore market could be fundamentally firm in 2014 maintaining the Straits Times Price Earning Premium of 13.47x as at 27 December 2013. Investors and funds must be sharp to pick stocks with forward looking business potential, especially from overseas.

曾淵滄專欄 02.01.14:強勢股繼續做龍頭


Shipping - Surf On The Rates Momentum (RHB)

Shipping - Surf On The Rates Momentum
We are NEUTRAL on shipping. The rate upswing across all segments in 2013 presents trading opportunities. The dry bulk sector’s valuation has somewhat  priced  in  optimism  of  a  recovery  while  we  see  tankers eventually  catching  up,  although  caution  is  advocated  due  to  the weaker macro prospects. We prefer MISC for its diversified exposure.

Wednesday, January 1, 2014


Created 12/30/2013 - 16:59



文: 陈挚文 (译:杨佳文) 2013年12月30日 技术分析


曹仁超:港股明年初仍处安全区 看好医药股

曹仁超:港股明年初仍处安全区 看好医药股

12月18日消息,据香港信报报道,众多行业之中,《信报》首席顾问曹仁超较为看好医药股,认为该行业于2014年前景非常亮丽,“随着人口老化,中国14亿人口,只要占到1%市占率,就相当于1400万人的生意,this is another dream.”但他提醒投资者,在选股方面需要较为审慎。其中尤以一些销售专科药物如心脏、糖尿、血压等高技术医疗企业,较值得看高一线。


Axis REIT - Disposal of Axis Plaza (Kenanga)

Axis REIT -
Disposal of Axis Plaza

News  Axis REIT announced the proposed disposal of Axis Plaza, for a total cash consideration of RM34.0m which is at a slight premium to the appraised value of Axis Plaza of RM32m. Net disposal gain is RM11m vs. the investment cost of RM22.5m and estimated disposal expense of RM0.5m.

Freight Management - Gaining Strength

Freight Management -
Target Price: MYR2.00
Price: MYR1.61
Gaining Strength

Freight Management  (FMH)  kick-started  FY14 with  a  commendable net profit of MYR5.3m (+9.7% y-o-y),  which  was  within our and consensus estimates.  All  its  business  divisions  reported  earnings  growth  except the  tugs  &  barges  segment.  The  company’s  expansion  plans  are making  good  progress.  Maintain  BUY  call,  with  FV  revised  upward  to MYR2.00 from MYR1.68.

Retail REITs: New shopping centres add buzz, but where can investors find bargains?

Retail REITs: New shopping centres add buzz, but where can investors find bargains?

Written by Michelle Teo  
Monday, 16 December 2013 14:36
There’s a palpable buzz at the eastern and western ends of Singapore in the weeks leading up to Christmas as two major shopping centres — Bedok Mall and Westgate in Jurong East — opened their doors to the seasonal retail rush. Catering to the suburban sprawl that has developed at the far ends of the island, the malls were teeming with people right after opening on Dec 3, even though not all shops were in business yet.

Bedok Mall is a 50:50 venture between CapitaLand and CapitaMalls Asia (CMA), its 65%-owned unit that develops malls across the region. Westgate is also another CapitaLand group development — a 50:30:20 venture by CMA, CapitaMall Trust (CMT) and CapitaLand.

Daibochi - Strong demand and property boost in 3Q (CIMB)

Daibochi Plastic & Packaging -
Current RM3.65
Target RM4.19
Strong demand and property boost in 3Q

At an annualised 98% of our FY13 forecast, Daibochi's 9MFY13 EPS was in line with market and our expectations as we expect a stronger 4Q. The strong export demand and lower crude oil prices in the past 1-2 months are positive factors for the company.

We maintain our FY14-16 EPS forecasts but raise our target price as we roll forward to end-2015, applying 13x CY15 P/E, our sector P/E target. We upgrade Daibochi from a Neutral to Outperform in view of likely lower raw material price risks after the recent sharp fall in crude oil prices. Securing major export orders and further declines in oil prices could catalyse the stock. Daibochi is our top pick in the packaging sector.

Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Outlook 2014 A year of two halves

Outlook 2014 A year of two halves
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Francis Eng, Chief Investment Officer, UOB Asset Management (Malaysia) Bhd    
Monday, 30 December 2013 16:26

WE believe 2014 could be a year of two halves with a more challenging first half due to quantitative easing (QE) tapering and a better second half as global growth momentum continues. We expect QE tapering to commence in the first quarter.

Recall in 2013 that when tapering expectations increased, there was an outflow of funds from emerging markets to developed markets and this caused the former, including Asia, to weaken. During the period of tapering fears from May to September 2013, Asean markets, such as  Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines, bore the brunt of the selldown while Malaysia was relatively flat.

Outlook 2014 Better outlook for Malaysian equities

Outlook 2014 Better outlook for Malaysian equities
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Yvonne Tan, Chief Investment Officer, Equities, Eastspring Investments Bhd    
Monday, 30 December 2013 16:25

WE expect the Malaysian economy to grow between 5% and 5.5% in 2014, driven by steady growth in domestic demand. Private investment will continue to grow at a double-digit pace, supported by the ongoing Economic Transformation Programme.

We also expect decent export recovery next year. The global economic outlook is improving with the US economy showing good signs of recovery, for example improving employment numbers. The US housing market, which forms a large part of consumption spending, has been rising with strengthening house prices. House inventory levels are hovering near 11-year lows. As for Europe, although recovery is weak, the worst is most likely behind it. We are looking at around 1% growth for the eurozone next year.


文: 杨佳文 2013年12月30日 展望

AusGroup Presents Bottom-Fishing Opportunity For The Bold

AusGroup Presents Bottom-Fishing Opportunity For The Bold
By Nicholas Tan

Beleaguered specialist engineering service provider to Australia’s commodity industry, AusGroup, continues to be under pressure as it reported negative 1Q14 gross and net profit margins, resulting from the downturn in mining activity and cost overrun issues.

According to OSK-DMG, the negative margins position means that AusGroup is burning cash daily, which is causing further pressure on its embattled balance sheet. We suspect the negative margins might have caused it to breach lending covenants, thus triggering the repayment of senior debt and the need to provide full cash back of all bank guarantees on issue expiring in mid-January 2014. Thus, dwindling its net cash position as at 30 September 2013 to A$7.9 million.


Created 12/29/2013 - 19:38







Created 12/29/2013 - 19:00



Monday, December 30, 2013

CNMC Goldmine Ventures Into Tin Mining As Tin Price Rises

CNMC Goldmine Ventures Into Tin Mining As Tin Price Rises
Written by Leong Chan Teik (
Saturday, 28 December 2013 12:06


ABOVE IS THE price movement of tin in the past two years. Since July 2013, the metal has been recovering -- from just above US$19,000 per tonne to almost US$23,000 currently.

HEALTHWAY MEDICAL: Stronger Now With New Specialists, And Reorganisation

HEALTHWAY MEDICAL: Stronger Now With New Specialists, And Reorganisation
Written by Leong Chan Teik (
Friday, 27 December 2013

HEALTHWAY MEDICAL CORPORATION is one of the largest private medical groups in Singapore. Its primary healthcare division has been doing nicely but the specialist and wellness division reported a EBTDA (earnings before tax, depreciation & amortisation) loss of $3.8 million on revenue of $29.6 million in 2012, as disclosed in the annual report.

Going forward, a narrowing of the loss, and certainly a profit, in the specialist division would have a strong impact on Healthway's bottomline.

Nam Cheong - Anticipating a New Year’s Gift (DMG)

Nam Cheong -
Target Price: SGD0.45
Price: SGD0.29
Anticipating a New Year’s Gift

We anticipate NCL announcing a series of orders to close off FY13. We also take this opportunity to roll our valuation over to 10x FY14F P/E for a SGD0.45 TP (from SGD0.41). It remains a Top Pick in the oil & gas (O&G) sector with its strong 24% earnings growth and undemanding 6.7x FY14F P/E, supported by an expected dividend increase to yield 3.0-4.2% over FY13-15F.





曾淵滄專欄 30.12.13:東南亞有難香港濕滯



XMH Holdings : New acquisition offsets weak Indonesian sales (NRA)

XMH Holdings
Current Price S$0.34
Fair Value S$0.45
New acquisition offsets weak Indonesian sales

Earnings below expectations. 2Q14 net profit of S$2.0m was 40% below our expectations, mainly due to lower-than-expected revenues from its distribution business segment and higher-than-expected SG&A expenses.

 Lower forecasts and fair value but maintain Overweight. Given the lower-than-expected earnings, we slightly revise our full year forecast 5% lower due to higher operating cost but keep FY15-16 relatively unchanged.

Sunday, December 29, 2013

买方卖方皆关注 2014房事

买方卖方皆关注 2014房事
Created 12/27/2013 - 13:00




(译:朱爱伦) 2013年12月26日 展望
富时海峡时报中型股(FTSE ST Mid Cap)指数包含50只成份股,包括五只海峡时报指数(STI)候补股。这50只股在截至2013年11月底的平均市值为22亿元。


Analysts see huge potential in China’s mobile e-commerce market

Changi Airport Group, CapitaMalls Asia to jointly develop Project Jewel

Singapore’s beauty, personal care market grows to US$1.46b in 2013

Impasse over Indonesia's ore export ban

Press Metal - Off To a Great Start (RHB)

Press Metal -
Target Price: MYR3.79
Price: MYR2.25
Off To a Great Start

Press’  management  remains  concerned  over  depressed  aluminium prices,  although  we  are  impressed  with  its  potential  143.6%  y-o-y earning surge in FY14 despite our lower price assumptions. We are also excited  by  its  strategic  asset  swap,  PMB’s  commissioning,  Mukah plant’s  re-commissioning,  and  its  landmark  deal  with  Sumitomo. Maintain BUY, with a lower MYR3.79 FV (from MYR3.82).

Sunway - Accumulating Landbank In Penang (RHB)

Sunway -
Target Price: MYR3.33
Price: MYR2.64
Accumulating Landbank In Penang

We raise our FV on Sunway to MYR3.33  (from MYR3.30)  due to  its  new land  acquisition  in  Penang.  The  land  will  be  developed  into  a  mix  of commercial  shops  and  high-rises  worth  a  GDV  of  MYR1.5bn. Meanwhile, Sunway will likely hit MYR1.8bn  in  sales for FY13.  Its sales target  for  next  year  will  be  at  the  same  level,  and  we  think  this  is achievable given its pipeline of projects. Maintain BUY.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
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