Saturday, November 16, 2013

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Focusing on competitive strengths (OCBC)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding:
Fair value S$1.22
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.04
versus: Current price S$1.20
Focusing on competitive strengths

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (YZJ) reported a 2% YoY rise in revenue to RMB3.67b and a 6% decrease in net profit to RMB820.7m, such that both 9M13 revenue and net profit accounted for about 80% of our full year forecasts, slightly better than our expectations. Gross profit margin remained healthy at 29.6% in 3Q13 vs 29.4% in 3Q12. Despite an improving shipbuilding market, YZJ has limited capacity to take on new orders – its yard capacity will be highly utilized till 2016. The group has also decided to divert resources meant for O&M to its core shipbuilding business for now. This is likely to result in better execution and more vessel deliveries in 2014, raising our fair value estimate to S$1.22 (prev. S$1.04). Maintain HOLD.

Thai Beverage : In good spirits (CIMB)

Thai Beverage
Current S$0.54
Target S$0.76
In good spirits

▊ Spirits volume rebounded this quarter, demonstrating the resilience of consumer demand. Non-alcoholic beverage losses narrowed but we think that it is too early to pass judgment on this business. 3Q13 EPS is broadly in line, at 23% of our full-year estimate and consensus numbers. 9M13 forms 71%. We expect the spirits business to post a stronger performance in 4Q, buoyed by ASP increases. But we are lowering our estimates by 4-5% to account for higher losses for non-alcoholic beverages. We retain our Outperform call while raising our SOP target price as we roll it over to CY14. Corporate restructuring is a potential catalyst.

Suntec REIT acquires landmark office tower in North Sydney Central Business District

Suntec REIT acquires landmark office tower in North Sydney Central Business District

Written by The Edge  
Friday, 15 November 2013 22:48
The manager of Suntec Real Estate Investment Trust (Suntec REIT) ha agreed to acquire a 100% interest in 177-199 Pacific Highway, a freehold land and property to be developed for a consideration of A$413.19 million ($481.8 million).

The property is a 31-storey A grade commercial tower which is targeted for completion in early 2016. With an net lettable area (NLA) of 423,915 sq ft, the property is located in one of the most prominent sites in North Sydney Central Business District at the junction of Pacific Highway and Berry Street.

Noble Group Ltd: Improvement seen in 3Q13 (OCBC)

Noble Group Ltd:
Fair value S$1.03
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.030
versus: Current price S$1.08
Improvement seen in 3Q13

Noble Group (Noble) reported its 3Q13 results last evening, with revenue rising 13% YoY to US$25,595m, buoyed by revenue growth from all three business segments. Excluding non-cash Associate loss of US$103m, core earnings would have come in around US$113.0m. 9M13 revenue of US$73,524m met 74% of our full-year forecast; core earnings of US$194.1m would have met around 64% of our FY13 estimate. Going forward, management says it will continue to focus on long-term efficiency gains made from recent initiatives to reduce SAO and finance cost; also taking full advantage of the current downturn to add significant off-take and marketing agreements. We are upgrading our call from Sell to HOLD with higher S$1.03 fair value (versus S$0.76 previously) to reflect improved outlook.

Midas Holdings : Looking better (CIMB)

Midas Holdings
Current S$0.50
Target S$0.74
Looking better

▊ Midas’s 3Q13 net profit topped our expectations by a mile on the back of robust sales and the strong contribution from Midas’s associate, NPRT. Things are also looking brighter for its balance sheet, with inventory days and receivable days falling to one-year lows. Midas’s 9M13 net profit was above our expectation, at 80% of our FY13 forecast. We raise FY13 EPS by 45% as we expect stronger earnings growth in 4Q13 from the recognition of new HSR contracts. However, we cut FY14-15 EPS by 4-6% for higher finance costs. Maintain Outperform and target price of $0.74, based on 1.29x CY14 P/BV (20% discount to average P/BV during 2010-11). New HSR contract wins is the key catalyst.

Biosensors : Another shocking quarter (OCBC)

Biosensors International Group:
Fair value S$0.80
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.025
versus: Current price S$0.925
Another shocking quarter

Biosensors International Group (BIG) turned in another poor set of results, with 2QFY14 core PATMI plunging 60.6% YoY to US$11.5m despite a 4.1% growth in revenue to US$83.0m. This was significantly below ours and the street’s expectations, as 1HFY14 core PATMI of US$23.6m (-59.0%) formed only 30.0% of our original FY14 estimates (27.4% of Bloomberg consensus). BIG also lowered its FY14 revenue guidance. While we had previously cautioned that management would have difficulty meeting its previous 15% topline growth guidance and that BIG was also facing mounting cost pressures, the situation appears to be worse than we had expected. In light of the challenging conditions surrounding BIG, we slash our FY14 and FY15 core PATMI projections by 26.9% and 19.1%, respectively. Our DCF-derived fair value estimate consequently declines from S$0.96 to S$0.80. Downgrade BIG from Hold to SELL.

Golden Agri-Resources: Another disappointing quarter (OCBC)

Golden Agri-Resources:
Fair value S$0.465
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.010
versus: Current price S$0.565
Another disappointing quarter

Golden Agri-Resources (GAR) continued to feel the blunt of weaker CPO prices and suffered another disappointing quarter, resulting in 9M13 earnings meeting just 51% of our original forecast. While it expects to see the sequential growth in CPO production in 4Q13, GAR now guides for a 5% contraction in CPO production this year (versus earlier 5-10% growth guidance); although it is likely to revert to this usual growth forecast next year. While our FY13 earnings estimate is probably one of the lowest on the street, we need to slash it further by 31% (FY14 by 12%), while keeping our revenue forecasts largely unchanged. No doubt that the worst may be over, we note that the recent price rally looks overdone. As such, we maintain our SELL rating with an unchanged fair value of S$0.465 (based on 12.5x FY14F EPS versus 11x blended FY13/FY14F EPS).

Courts Asia - Poor Results, Turnaround Delayed (MEK)

Courts Asia -
Hold (from Buy)
Share price: SGD0.70
Target price: SGD0.72 (from SGD1.07)
Poor Results, Turnaround Delayed

Seasonally strong quarter disappoints. 1HFY03/14 results made up 34% and 30% of our and consensus estimates, respectively. The earnings drag came from deteriorating consumer sentiment in Malaysia (hit by fuel subsidy cuts and more stringent credit measures on individuals by Bank Negara Malaysia) and an unfavourable shift in product mix in both Singapore and Malaysia. With the earnings outlook expected to stay challenging, we slash our FY03/14-16 estimates by up to 37%. Our revised TP of SGD0.72 is based on a lower target PER of 12x (from 14x) to reflect a weaker earnings growth profile. We cut our rating to HOLD.

Malaysia Retail REITs Still On Sale (UOBKH)

Retail REITs Still On Sale

MREITs are still down by 7-13% since bond yields started to rise in Jul 13, thus creating a shopping list of retail MREITS for long-term investors. We favour retail and industrial MREITs and would avoid office MREITs due to risk of potential oversupply of office space. 2014 is also a good year to shop for future MREIT beneficiaries. Top picks are CMMT, Pavilion REIT and Sunway REIT. Initiate coverage with MARKET WEIGHT.

Tat Hong Holdings: No surprises in 2QFY14 results (OCBC)

Tat Hong Holdings:
Fair value S$0.90
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.04
versus: Current price S$0.92
No surprises in 2QFY14 results

Tat Hong’s 2QFY14 results remained weak as expected. Revenue fell 14.2% YoY to S$185.3m while operating profit declined by 33.9% to S$18.6m. Despite the poorer showing, management declared an interim dividend of 1 S cent vs. 1.5 S cents last year. Entering 2HFY14, we expect Tat Hong’s performance to stay weak. Its Australian operations are unlikely to produce any turnaround until early FY15 (at its earliest) as sentiment remains poor. Nonetheless, some positives from stability in Singapore, Hong Kong and China operations should help to cushion some of the declines. As the street had factored in expectations for a weakened performance, we should not see sustained selling pressure on the counter. Adjusting our forecasts downwards slightly, our fair value falls to S$0.90 (S$0.96 previously). Maintain HOLD.

YTL Power : Not out of the game yet (CIMB)

YTL Power International
Current RM1.90
Target RM2.55
Not out of the game yet

We were positively surprised that YTL Power emerged as the lowest bidder for the 2,000MW coal-fired power plant under Project 3B ahead of favourites Tenaga and 1MDB.

We maintain our Outperform call on YTL Power, with an unchanged SOP-based target price of RM2.55. We believe the news that YTL Power submitted the lowest bid for Project 3B will put the company on investors’ radar again. The re-rating catalyst will be the announcement of YTL Power securing the tender for Project 3B that is expected by early-2014.

CSC Steel - 3Q13 Weakens Further (HLB)

CSC Steel -
Price Target: RM1.38
Share Price: RM1.36
3Q13 Weakens Further

9M13 reported net profit of RM28m (+25%) came in below our expectation, accounting for only 67% of our full-year forecast.

Weaker-than-expected sales volumes and profitability.

Friday, November 15, 2013

怕再涨 赶进场!

怕再涨 赶进场!
Created 11/15/2013 - 15:25



F&N says holders of 2016, 2019 notes opposed amending terms

F&N says holders of 2016, 2019 notes opposed amending terms
Tags: Fraser And Neave

Written by Bloomberg  
Friday, 15 November 2013 10:13
Holders of Fraser & Neave Ltd.’s 5.5% 2016 and 6.0% 2019 notes voted against allowing the company to amend the terms the debt, hindering plans to spin off a property unit without causing a default.

Investors in three other series of the beverage and property conglomerate’s debt supported the amendment plan, the company said late yesterday.

Parkson Retail Asia 1Q14 Profit Beats Expectations

Parkson Retail Asia
Target Price: SGD1.28
Price: SGD0.97
1Q14 Profit Beats Expectations

 PRA’s 1Q14 recurring profit of SGD10.3m (-11% y-o-y, +203% q-o-q) was above our SGD8.5m estimate. Key positive was a better-than-expected margins recovery from 4Q13’s disappointing numbers, hinting a return to y-o-y growth momentum from 2Q14. Its share price has corrected 31% since our last update and we believe its risk-reward tradeoff has since improved. Upgrade to BUY, with an unchanged SGD1.28 TP.

Asian Pay Television Trust: Expansion plans confirmed (DBSV)

Asian Pay Television Trust:
BUY S$0.77 STI: 3,180.25
Price Target: 12-Month S$0.91 (Prev S$0.97)
Expansion plans confirmed;

•9M13 asset EBITDA of S$150.3m was in line and comprised 75.0% of its FY13F guidance
•APTT confirms plans for expansion into Greater Taichung area; but didn’t give details citing competitive reasons
•We lower our TP to S$0.91, assuming additional capex of S$80-100m in the long term. BUY for ~10.7% yield -  highest among business trusts listed in Singapore & HK

Q&M Dental : Hitting Critical Mass (MKE)

Q&M Dental Group
Buy (unchanged)
Share price:SGD0.305
Target price:SGD0.41(unchanged)
Hitting Critical Mass

 Above expectations. Following an above-expectations 3Q13 results (NP +52% YoY and 72% QoQ to SGD1.5m, above our forecast of SGD1.2m), we have nudged up our FY13 forecast by 6%. At 54 dental clinics in Singapore and a strategy of mixing dental outlets with new revenue generators such as medical specialists, Q&M has reached critical mass where new outlets will not impact profits as significantly as before. Hence, 3Q13 results showed a spike normally associated with the seasonally stronger 4Q. Catalysts include a better 4Q and the smooth progress of the China acquisitions. As the only covering broker, maintain BUY with a SGD0.41 TP, based on 34x FY13F forecast or 0.5SD below historical mean.

Religare Health Trust: Results in line, acquisition in sight (CIMB)

Religare Health Trust
Current S$0.80
Target S$0.93
Results in line, acquisition in sight

▊ 2QFY14 results were largely in line. Underlying revenue growth was weighed down by rupee depreciation, which remains the key risk for RHT. The potential acquisition of the Mohali Clinical Establishment is noteworthy but inconclusive given the lack of details. At 50% of our FY13/14 forecast, 1H DPU broadly met our and consensus expectations. Our DDM-based target price (discount rate of 11.7%) remains at S$0.93 after we fine-tune FY14-16 DPUs. We maintain our Outperform rating, with catalysts coming from acquisitions and earnings delivery.

Courts Asia : Trouble in Malaysia (CIMB)

Courts Asia
Current S$0.78
Target S$0.84
Trouble in Malaysia

▊ Deteriorating consumer sentiment in Malaysia and a shift in product mix in Singapore have depressed Courts' profitability. We are more worried about the slowdown in Malaysia as its woes in Singapore look transitory. 2Q14 EPS came in below, meeting 15% of our full-year estimate and 17% of consensus – while 1H14 EPS formed just 30% of our forecast. We slash our EPS estimates by 27-29% to reflect lower sales in Malaysia and lower profits in Singapore. We also raise our discount rate from 8% to 9%, leading to a huge decline in our residual income-based target price. We downgrade Courts to Neutral from Outperform.

Riverstone : Helped by a favourable currency trend (NRA)

Riverstone Holdings Ltd
Current Price S$0.76
Fair Value S$0.84
Helped by a favourable currency trend

Earnings in-line with expectation. Riverstone's 3Q13 net profit of US$15.7m was in line with our expectation; however the key variances were slightly lower-than-expected margin but offset by favourable RM0.8m forex gain. As expected, the group has further improved its utilisation rate to 91% in 3Q13 compared to 85% in 2Q13 and 76% in 1Q13.

Silverlake : Higher dividends & healthy pipeline (DBSV)

Silverlake Axis
BUY S$0.84
STI: 3,186.12
Price Target: 12-month S$0.90 (Prev S$0.82)
Higher dividends & healthy pipeline

• 1Q14F profit of RM51.2m (+29% y-o-y,-14% q-oq) was 8% above our estimate due to forex gains. Interim DPS of 0.8 Scts (+60% y-o-y) was another positive surprise

• FY14F/15F EPS raised 5%/8% on the back of forex gains in FY14F, followed by higher licensing revenue in FY15F.

Nam Cheong : Record-breaker (CIMB)

Nam Cheong
Current S$0.29
Target S$0.36

▊ 3Q core EPS beat expectations by 62% and represents Nam Cheong’s strongest quarter since listing. The strength was led by the sale of four platform supply vessels (PSVs). Its share price could be catalysed by stronger-than-expected vessel sales and earnings strength, in our view. 9M core EPS forms 75% of our FY13 forecast, which is above since we are expecting a stronger 4Q with the sale of a 5,000 dwt PSV from its 2013 newbuild programme. We increase our FY13-15 EPS by 2-11% from revisions to the timing of its vessel sales and chartering earnings. We maintain our Outperform rating with a higher target price after rolling forward to 8x CY15 P/E (peers’ average) and upgrading our earnings.

Wilmar : Expect decent 4Q results (CIMB)

Wilmar International
Current S$3.38
Target S$4.12
Expect decent 4Q results

▊ Wilmar’s recent results briefing has not changed our views. We expect 4Q earnings to be driven by higher contributions from its plantations division. Future growth will be supported by on-going organic expansion in its core businesses and potential M&As. We currently project 4Q13 earnings to be below 3Q13’s due to lower sugar milling contribution. But its earnings may surprise on the upside if CPO prices sustain their uptrend. We maintain our earnings forecasts, SOP-based target price and Outperform rating. We believe a stronger-than-expected recovery in earnings and potential M&As can catalyse the stock.

Goodpack : More upside from synthetic rubber (CIMB)

Current S$1.91
Target S$2.23
More upside from synthetic rubber

▊ Despite 1Q being seasonally weaker than 4Q, Goodpack’s 1Q14 revenue rose 1.6% qoq due to strong demand from natural and synthetic rubber customers. It spent $32.6m in capex to buy new IBCs which typically means that the company has secured demand for new contracts ahead. 1QFY6/14 net profit formed 24% of our full-year forecast and was in line with our as well as consensus estimates. We leave our EPS forecasts unchanged but our target price rises to S$2.23 as we roll forward to FY15 earnings and raise our target P/E multiple from 13.5x to 15x (historical mean from 2007). We maintain our Outperform call and see catalysts from synthetic rubber and auto parts.

曾淵滄專欄 15.11.13:三中提倡市場經濟



Pan-United: Simplicity is great (CIMB)

Pan-United Corp
Current S$0.97
Target S$1.08
Simplicity is great

▊ PUC continued to deliver good results that were still driven by the core Basic Building Material segment. We keep our eyes on a couple of expense items but think that the earnings boost will come through from enlarged CXP contributions. 3Q13 and 9M13 EPS are in line, at 30% and 84% of our FY13 forecast, respectively. We keep our FY13-15 EPS and residual income-based target price. The stock remains an Outperform, potentially catalysed by earnings contributions from very chunky MRT projects in the BBR segment and an improved earnings profile coming from its enlarged CXP operations.

Yongnam : No reason to own this stock (CIMB)

Yongnam Holdings
Current S$0.25
Target S$0.20
No reason to own this stock

 The latest financials suggest that contractors are battling a harsh operating environment and YNH is no exception. Without a Myanmar angle and new order book wins, this company faces a bleak future.

3Q13 and 9M13 results were below expectations, at 7% and 58%, respectively, of our full-year forecast. We cut core FY13-15 EPS by 26-37% on lower revenue assumptions from the lack of contracts and margins challenges. Our target price falls to S$0.20 (rolling over to 5x CY15 P/E, its three-year mean). The lack of convincing contract wins and margin squeeze are de-rating catalysts. Maintained Underperform.

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust: 3Q13 results in-line (OCBC)

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust:
air value S$0.45
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.035
versus: Current price S$0.445
3Q13 results in-line

LMIRT reported 3Q13 gross rental income of S$38.9m, up 13.6% YoY. The increase was mainly due to the acquisition of the six new malls in 4Q12, and positive rental reversions for the existing malls. Distributable income increased by 20.7% YoY to S$19.1m and DPU climbed 19.2% to 0.87 S cents. Results for the quarter were in-line with ours and consensus expectations. 9M13 DPU of 2.69 S cents forms 75% of our prior FY13 estimate. On 4 Oct, under its MTN programme, LMIRT issued S$150m 4.25% notes due 2016. Management indicates that it may use the money raised to refinance the S$147.5m term loan due Jun 2014 or to make acquisition. It currently has a potential target in mind. Adjusting our model slightly to incorporate higher finance expense from the S$150m notes issuance and lower cost of equity assumptions (9.7% instead of 10.8%), we raise our DDM-based FV to S$0.45 from S$0.44. Maintain HOLD. We estimate a FY13F yield of 7.8%.

Thursday, November 14, 2013

Amara : Muted 3Q2013 results, overall growth still intact (Phillip)

Amara Holdings Ltd
Target Price (SGD) 0.74
Closing Price (SGD) 0.550
Muted 3Q2013 results, overall growth still intact
Remains heavily undervalued

 Company Overview
Amara Holdings Limited is a home-grown integrated lifestyle group principally engaged in three business areas, namely, hotel investment and management, property investment and development, and specialty restaurants and food services.

• Muted financial performance in 3Q13. Although 3Q13 revenue, $18.5mn, recorded an 11.0% y-y dip, 3Q13 PATMI ($3.9mn), registered a 4.7% y-y growth.

Tat Hong : Not so TAT-tered this time (CIMB)

Tat Hong Holdings -
Current S$0.92
Target S$0.93
Not so TAT-tered this time

A sequential improvement provides relief. While land optimisation programmes have been put in place, we believe that investors would rather see a convincing recovery in its Australian operations.

2QFY3/14 core net profit was in line at 30% of our full-year forecast. 1HFY3/14 core net profit formed 48% of our FY13 estimate. We keep our estimates unchanged, but lower our target price as we roll it over to 7x CY15 P/E (1 s.d. below its 5-year average forward P/E, previously 9x CY14 P/E). Uncertainties in Australia will eclipse other growth engines and hinder better valuation multiples as seen in the past. Maintain Neutral.

Noble Group : At inflection point (CIMB)

Noble Group  
At inflection point
NEUTRAL - Maintained | S$1.08 - TP: S$1.04

▊ Stripping out the US$79m in losses of its associates, Noble posted an operationally decent 3Q, which met the Street’s expectations. The 3Q provides the first hint of a turnaround, but we think that a gradual recovery could be priced in already. Stripping out US$79m in losses of its associates, 9M formed 72% of consensus’s forecast. We are resuming coverage of Noble with an unchanged Neutral rating, but a lower target price after rolling forward to 10x CY15 P/E (0.5x s.d. below its 5-year mean) and lowering our FY13-15 EPS. We believe that the recent 35% increase in share price has already been factored into a gradual recovery.

Fortune REIT: 3Q13 in line; counter is oversold (OCBC)

Fortune REIT:
Fair value HK$7.01
add: 12m dividend forecast HK$0.363
versus: Current price HK$6.320
3Q13 in line; counter is oversold

FRT reported 3Q13 results that were generally in line with ours and the street's expectations. Revenue rose 10.7% YoY to HK$315.7m. Income available for distribution climbed 10.6% YoY to HK$153.3m, however, DPU increased by only 1.5% to 8.28 HK cents because of the placement units (representing an increase of 8.4% over the number of prior units) issued on 6 Aug. Income from Fortune Kingswood started contribution from 9 Oct. FRT's unit price has fallen 11% since 29 Jul (closing price of HK$7.14), the day before it announced the MOU for Kingswood. We believe the counter has been oversold. We tweak our FV slightly to HK$7.01 from HK$6.95. On valuation grounds, we upgrade FRT to a BUY from Hold. We believe that the reflection of the maiden contribution by Fortune Kingswood in the 4Q13 results will be a significant positive catalyst; we forecast 4Q13 DPU of 10.0 HK cents.

Hyflux: Slow 4Q after strong 3Q (OCBC)

Fair value S$1.23
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.030
versus: Current price S$1.170
Slow 4Q after strong 3Q

In 3Q13, Hyflux saw revenue jumped 26% YoY to S$187.7m and net profit rose 74% to S$25.3m, such that 9M13 revenue of S$450.7m met 68% and earnings of S$51.0m met 75% of our FY13 forecasts, respectively. But with the completion of Tuaspring in 3Q, Hyflux believes that 4Q is likely to be slow. Nevertheless, management remains largely upbeat about its prospects, as it is working on tenders for various projects in MENA potentially worth S$2b. As we roll forward our 20x multiple from blended FY13/FY14 to FY14F EPS, our fair value inches up from S$1.215 to S$1.23. But we opt to keep our HOLD rating on the stock until we see better clarity on its project wins.

Goodpack Limited: 1QFY14 results in-line (OCBC)

Goodpack Limited:
Fair value S$1.87
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.05
versus: Current price S$1.91
1QFY14 results in-line

Goodpack’s 1QFY14 results came in within expectations with revenue increasing 7.7% YoY to US$52.1m following greater demand by customers in the rubber industry. The company also managed to keep operating margins relatively stable despite incurring higher depreciation and financing costs from having a larger IBC fleet. As a result, operating profit and PATMI grew by 11.8% YoY to US$19.3m and 7.2% to US$13.9m, respectively. For the remaining quarters, we expect top-line growth to sustain as its key clients’ synthetic rubber (SR) operations in Singapore ramp up operations. In terms of margins, we had previously factored in some margin deterioration but the decent 1QFY14 performance gives us some cause for optimism for the rest of year. Nonetheless, we leave our conservative FY14F projections intact but incorporate a slower pace of debt repayments. This causes our DCF-derived fair value to rise to S$1.87 (S$1.69 previously). However, Goodpack’s share price has risen by more than 23% since late-Aug, we believe that much of the upside has been priced in at this point. Downgrade to HOLD.

Boustead : Plenty of Catalysts ahead! (Phillip)

Boustead Singapore
Target Price (SGD) 2.05
Closing Price (SGD) 1.445
Plenty of Catalysts ahead!

 Company Overview
Boustead operates market leading infrastructure related businesses: Geospatial Technology (29% PBT), Industrial Property Design & Build + Property Portfolio (42%), Water & Wastewater Engineering (1%), and Energy (28%) Related Engineering. Boustead also generates strong excess cash.

Yongnam Holdings - Awaiting Contract Wins (MKE)

Yongnam Holdings -
Hold (unchanged )
Share price: SGD0.245
Target price: SGD0.24(unchanged)
Awaiting Contract Wins

Maintain HOLD, TP at SGD0.24. 9M13 results met our toned down expectations following the recent profit warning announced two weeks ago. As forewarned earlier, the drag came from: (1) cost overruns from three ongoing projects in Singapore; and (2) a significant one-off loss on disposal of fixed assets. We remain cautious on Yongnam’s FY14 earnings from a lack of contract wins YTD, and trim our FY13 estimate marginally. Maintain HOLD at SGD0.24 TP, based on 10x FY14 EPS PER.

Fasers Commercial Trust : Embarking on a sustainable growth path (AM)

Fasers Commercial Trust

Fasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) is a developer-sponsored commercial real estate investment trust. FCOT invests primarily in quality income-producing commercial office properties in both Singapore and Australia, with its current portfolio consisting of China Square Central, 55 Market Street, Alexandra Technopark, Caroline Chisholm Centre and Central Park.

Enjoying a sustainable stream of distributions. We like FCOT for the sustainability of its distributions, which is supported by its well-diversified lease expiry profile, built-in rents and its blue-chip tenant profile.

Wilmar : Prospects appear better (CS)

Wilmar International
Maintain NEUTRAL
Price (07 Nov 13 , S$) 3.45
TP (prev. TP S$) 3.73 (3.73)
Prospects appear better

● We attended Wilmar's 3Q FY13 result briefing 8 Nov afternoon, and came away feeling more comfortable with our forecasts, and its outlook We estimate that Wilmar's FY14 P/E of 13.0x is close to the Singapore agriculture sector average of 13.6x.

● 4Q plantation profits should be up YoY and QoQ, as Wilmar expects 4Q FFB output to rise QoQ while palm oil prices have already improved.

Biosensors : Power of BIG believing (CIMB)

Biosensors Int'l
Current S$0.93
Target S$1.19
Power of BIG believing

▊ BIG’s weaker results could prompt the market to further downgrade the stock. However, we see bright spots in Spectrum Dynamics’ instant success, a more disciplined approach to future spending and the positives that regulatory approvals and new launches could bring. At 32% of our FY14 forecast, 1HFY3/14 core EPS missed our below-consensus estimates due to lower licensing income and higher opex. We slash FY14-16 EPS by 19-35% for lower sales assumptions and cut our SOP-based target price by 10%. Our contrarian Outperform rating hinges on the instant success of Spectrum Dynamics, product launches, regulatory approvals and M&A accretion.

曾淵滄專欄 14.11.13:三中無國策屬正常



文字敍述 各級官員學習

Amtek Engineering : Improving steadily (DBSV)

Amtek Engineering Limited -
HOLD S$0.45
STI : 3,177.25
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.48
Improving steadily

• 1Q14 results in line, formed 26% of FY14F earnings
• New customers and product wins led the recovery while automation helped contain costs
• Management cautiously optimistic; further re-rating dependent on stronger pick up

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding set for best year in order win since 2007

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding set for best year in order win since 2007

China’s third-largest listed shipbuilder Yangzijiang Shipbuilding Holdings is on track this year to win the most new orders since 2007, a feat unlikely to be repeated soon as it has now almost reached full capacity.

Yangzijiang, based in eastern China’s Jiangsu Province, took home new orders worth US$2.1 billion in the first nine months of 2013 and is poised to end the year with US$3 billion worth of new orders, Chairman Ren Yuanlin told reporters.

The strong performance helped build up an outstanding order book worth US$3.9 billion at the end of September, the highest in nearly two years, but that also means the company will have limited capacity for new contracts from now until 2016, Ren said.

REITs unlikely to regain broad appeal

REITs unlikely to regain broad appeal
Wednesday, 13 November 2013
THE latest earnings results for real estate investment trusts (REITs) for the third quarter (3Q) of 2013 were mostly within expectations, though this really is no surprise, and therefore offer few reasons for a rerating. Indeed, considering the relatively low yield spreads over prevailing risk-free Malaysian Government Securities (MGS) and expectations of rising interest rates, it may be some time before REITs regain their broad appeal.

For instance, the larger and most liquid REITs such as Axis REIT, CapitaMall Malaysia Trust (CMMT), Sunway REIT, IGB REIT and Pavilion REIT are currently giving investors net yields ranging from 4.9% to 5.5% for the current year and estimated to average roughly 5.3% for 2014.

Asian Pay Television Trust : Taichung expansion confirmed (CIMB)

Asian Pay Television Trust
Current S$0.77
Target S$1.08
Taichung expansion confirmed

▊ 3Q13 results were in line with forecasts and reaffirmed its dividend distribution for FY13-14. Management is also proceeding with its expansion into Greater Taichung which should raise distribution in the medium term. Our growth thesis has received a boost. 9M13 results were in line with asset EBITDA of S$150m accounting for 74% of our FY13 forecast. 2H13 DPU of 4.13Scts was reiterated. We maintain our Outperform rating and DCF-based (COE 11.0%, LTG 1%) target price. We make minor changes to our forecasts after some housekeeping. Catalysts are expected from NCC certification for the start of operations in Greater Taichung, which we expect in 1Q14.

Goodpack : Proxy to US/Europe recovery (DBSV)

BUY S$1.90
STI : 3,186.12
Price Target: 12-Month S$2.25 (Prev: S$2.00)
Proxy to US/Europe recovery

• 1Q14 results largely in line
• Prime beneficiary of US/Europe recovery
• New auto part contract is a strong re-rating catalyst
• Reiterate BUY, TP raised to S$2.25

Prudent business model and market share gain bolster Goodpack's earnings during downturn.
1Q14 in line. Goodpack 1Q14 (FYE June) net profit grew 7% y-o-y to US$13m, on the back of an 8% increase in revenue. This forms 24% of our FY14F earnings, in line with our estimate of US$14m for the quarter. Other operating expenses were higher than expected, but this was offset by forex gains. Utilisation rate was stable at 58%. Goodpack has added about 100k new IBCs in 1Q14, bringing its fleet to c.3m.

Valuetronics : Valued OEM partner for the world’s leading brands (UOBKH)

Valuetronics Holdings Ltd
Share Price S$0.235
Valued OEM partner for the world’s leading brands

• 1HFY14 revenue flat but gross profit up 11%. While revenue remained flat in 1HFY14, gross profit increased 11.4% yoy due to a higher contribution from the industrial and commercial electronics (ICE) segment. Gross margin improved from 12.0% in 1HFY13 to 13.1% in 1HFY14.

• Growing ICE segment. 1HFY14 revenue from the ICE segment increased 16.5% yoy with contributions from 2 new customers.

Pan-United : Higher 3Q earnings despite flat topline (DBSV)

Pan-United Corporation:
BUY S$0.965 STI : 3,180.25
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.21
Higher 3Q earnings despite flat topline ;

•3Q13 results in line; earnings growth helped by lower costs
•Muted earnings growth attributed to subdued construction activities this year
•Infrastructure outlook remains positive while construction pipeline remains robust
•Maintain BUY and S$1.21 TP

3Q13 earnings in line.  Earnings for 3Q13 grew 6% y-o-y to S$12.3m on the back of flat revenues of S$184m.  Operating margins improved to 10% helped by lower raw material and staff costs.  9M13 earnings now make up 68% of our full year estimate and PAN is on track to meet our FY13F earnings.

Riverstone : Strong 3Q Numbers, Expect Record Profit (VR)

Riverstone Holdings Ltd
Strong 3Q Numbers, Expect Record Profit
 Intrinsic Value S$0.825
 Prev Closing S$0.760

 Riverstone Holdings Ltd (Riverstone) released its 3Q FY13 results with an 18.9% YoY increase in revenue to RM93.9m and a 49.3% YoY increase in PAT to RM15.7m. The increase in revenue was mainly due to a 34% YoY increase in sales volume. The increase in PAT was also boosted by external factors such as the depreciation of the MYR against USD and lower raw material prices, and internal factors such as higher utilization and productivity rates.

Boustead Singapore : Steady Growth, Fundamentals Intact(S—P)

Boustead Singapore
52-week Share Price Range (SGD)0.95 - 1.52
Steady Growth, Fundamentals Intact

• 1HFY14 (Mar) results in line. Boustead broadly met our expectations with a net profit of SGD26.7 mln (-3% YoY). After adjusting for nonrecurring items such as disposal gains coupled with impairment losses and overprovision of tax incurred in 1HFY13, 1HFY14 net profit would have increased by 25% YoY. An unchanged interim tax-exempt DPS of 2 cents was declared.

Lum Chang : Results Review (S&P)

Lum Chang Holdings
Price: SGD0.34

Results Review
• LCH 1QFY14 (Jun.) net profit leaped to SGD13.8 mln (+322% YoY) attributed mainly by the full recognition of the group’s 20%-owned Executive Condominium (EC), Esparina Residences which just obtained TOP in September. The results were broadly within expectations. Better-than-expected revenue, lower minority interest and taxation were offset by weaker-than-expected gross margin of 10.1% (FY14:10.8%) and higher administration expenses.

OUE Hospitality Trust : Key takeaways from post-inaugural results investor luncheon (CS)

OUE Hospitality Trust
Price (08 Nov 13, S$) 0.88
TP (prev. TP S$) 1.04 (1.04)
Key takeaways from post-inaugural results investor luncheon

Credit Suisse hosted OUEHT's post-inaugural results investor luncheon (results note here) in Singapore. OUEHT was represented by CEO Chong Kee Hiong and CFO Rudi Chuan.

● Key highlights: (1) MOS REVPAR growth was driven by higher Transient customers and higher occupancy; (2) supply is likely to remain an overhang sector-wide, although management believes MOS should have better pricing power post AEIs of its 430 rooms in 2014 and given its prime location; (3) MG is ~100% occupied: healthy rent reversions and tenant sales, especially F&B tenants.

曾淵滄專欄 13.11.2013:奶業股喪炒有原因


Wilmar International: A strong comeback (DBSV)

 Wilmar International:
BUY S$3.38 STI: 3,177.25
(Upgraded from HOLD)
Price Target: 12 months S$3.83 (Prev S$3.53)
A strong comeback

•Wilmar’s 3Q13 core earnings of US$391m (+1% y-o-y; +60% q-o-q) were above our expectations
•Earnings were buoyed by contributions from Sugar and Oilseeds & Grains M&P
•FY13F-15F earnings raised by 12%/7%/5%; as we impute higher Sugar contribution, better M&P and Consumer margins
•Rating upgraded to BUY for 15% total return potential. No interim DPS was declared

Halcyon Agri - Acquisition of JFL Group and Proposed Share Placement (S&P)

Halcyon Agri -
Acquisition of JFL Group and Proposed Share Placement

■ Acquisition of JFL Group. Halcyon Agri Corporation (HAC) has entered into a conditional share sale and purchase agreement to acquire JFL Agro Pte. Ltd. and its subsidiaries (JFL Group) for about SGD56.1 mln.

The deal is expected to be completed by end-2013.

Tuesday, November 12, 2013

佳节有望推高销售额 柏威年产托末季看涨

佳节有望推高销售额 柏威年产托末季看涨
Created 11/12/2013 - 12:14

兴业研究分析员指出,该公司的现财年首三季净利能够按年录得双位数增长,归功于柏威年广场的时尚大道(Fashion Avenue)贡献了更多的盈利,以及柏威年塔的面积全部获租用。


China Merchants Hldgs (Pacific) - Results ahead of expectations (OCBC)

China Merchants Hldgs (Pacific) -
BUY S$0.88
STI : 3,202.10
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.07
Results ahead of expectations

• 3Q net profit rose 46% y-o-y to HK$146m, ahead of expectations

• 9M13 earnings of HK$450m made up 91% of our full year forecast, which is likely to be revised

• We continue to like the company for its firm earnings growth and strong cash flows

FJ Benjamin - Higher Revenue Amid Tough Times (DMG)

FJ Benjamin -
Target Price: SGD0.27
Price: SGD0.25
Higher Revenue Amid Tough Times

FJB’s 1Q14 PATAMI sank 83% y-o-y to SGD0.4m, even as revenue rose 2% y-o-y. This was largely due to forex losses, an impairment in the value of its stake in St James, as well as higher tax expenses during the quarter. The company’s outlook remains challenging, although it plans to continue to invest in new brands and expand its stores. Maintain NEUTRAL, with a DCF-based TP of SGD0.27.

CNMC Goldmine : Growth Trajectory Swings to the Upside (VR)

CNMC Goldmine Holdings Limited -
Growth Trajectory Swings to the Upside
Increase Exposure
 Intrinsic Value  S$0.800
 Previous Close S$0.275

CNMC Goldmine Holdings Limited reported 3Q FY13 PATMI of US$1.6m, up 112% from 3Q FY12. Production in Oct 2013 has been confirmed at 81.5kg of gold dore, or about 2,350oz of fine gold, bringing Jan-Oct output to about 9,200oz - on track to meeting our full year forecasts.

We expect the company to maintain very high exponential growth in FY14 as it will enjoy full contribution from leaching pads 2 and 3 in 2014. The full 1m tonnes of ore processing capacity has the potential to yield output of 32,100oz to 48,150oz based on a gold grade of 1.0g/tonne to 1.5g/tonne.

Far East Hospitality Trust: Potential to do better (DBSV)

Far East Hospitality Trust:
HOLD S$0.895 STI: 3,177.25
(Downgrade from BUY)
Price Target: 12-month S$0.95 (Prev S$0.97)
Potential to do better

•Room rates still under pressure
•Refurbishments and repositioning strategies to drive growth
•Downgrade to HOLD, TP revised to S$0.95

A weak quarter. Gross revenues and net property income came in 9.4% below forecasts at S$31.5m and S$27.5m respectively. Interest savings due to lower all-in rates of 2.2% (vs 2.5% forecast) helped to mitigate the drop in distributable income, which at S$24.2m (DPU of 1.41 Scts), is 7.4% lower compared against forecast.

Neratel : Not As Bad As It Seems (DMG)

Target Price: SGD0.80
Price: SGD0.73
Not As Bad As It Seems

 NERT’s 3Q13 results were below expectations, with SGD3.3m earnings (-42.1% y-o-y) booked on the back of SGD50.1m in revenue (+4.0% y-o-y) as costs soared. This was further dragged down by deferred recognition of some orders and revenue this quarter. Reiterate BUY, but with a lower SGD0.80 TP (11.4x blended FY13/14 P/E), as we had been overly optimistic on its short-term revenue growth.

Wilmar International: Evident Recovery (MKE)

Wilmar International:
Buy (unchanged)
 Share price: SGD3.45
Target price: SGD4.30 (from SGD4.52)
Evident Recovery

 Positive underlying momentum. While 3Q13 was in line, the positive underlying trends reinforce our BUY recommendation. The positives came from strong performances at the oilseeds & grains (O&G), and sugar milling divisions. We expect 4Q13 to remain strong thanks to recent rise in sugar price, stabilizing soybean crushing margin in China as well as our expectation that CPO price will stay low. We think consensus estimates of USD1.3b are conservative given that second half of the year is traditionally the operating peak season for Wilmar. This should allow the stock to be re-rated further. Our SGD4.30 revised TP is based on 14.2x FY14 EPS, a discount to its historical P/E average of 15.4x since January 2008.

OUE : In the Process of Transformation (MKE)

OUE Limited
Buy (unchanged)
Share price:SGD2.35
Target price:SGD3.05 (from SGD3.40)
In the Process of Transformation

 3Q13 affected by higher borrowing costs and one-off expenses. OUE reported lower-than-expected 3Q13 net profit of SGD13.4m (-8% QoQ, -44% YoY), due mainly to higher borrowing costs as well as a SGD5m loss from the sale of its two hotels in China. 9M13 PATMI fell short, coming in at just 33% of our full-year estimate. Maintain BUY with a revised TP of SGD3.05, pegged to a 30% discount to RNAV following a transfer of coverage.

曾淵滄專欄 12.11.13:國退民進利中小行


Saizen REIT: Yen Depreciation Remains A Key Risk (AM)

Saizen REIT: Yen Depreciation Remains A Key Risk

Acquisitions supporting revenue and NPI growth. For the quarter ending Sep 2013, Saizen reported a 6.2% and 5.3% YoY increase in its gross revenue and net property income respectively. This was supported by the acquisitions of 5 properties between Nov 2012 and June 2013. We note that Saizen REIT’s Q1FY14 results were broadly within our expectations, with actual revenue and net property income 0.7% and 2% higher than our forecasts respectively.

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust : Hit by Unfavourable Currency Movement(VR)

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
Increase Exposure
Hit by Unfavourable Currency Movement
 Intrinsic Value S$0.620
 Prev Closing Price S$0.445

 Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust (LMIR) recorded a 13.6% YoY increase in 3Q gross revenue and 19.2% YoY increase in DPU to S$39.0m and 0.87 S cent respectively. This set of results is slightly weaker than our previous estimates mainly due to the continuous weakening of IDR against SGD. 9M revenue and DPU formed 74.1% of our previous estimates.

Monday, November 11, 2013

YTL CEO Wing Lee bets on 4G in Malaysia

YTL CEO Wing Lee bets on 4G in Malaysia (Q&A)
Piggybacking off a contract to supply 10,000 schools with Net access and 130,000 Chromebooks, a telco upstart gains an emerging market foothold. Hear its CEO's thoughts on the 4G honeymoon, Google Fiber, and dumb pipes.

AMSTERDAM -- How does a national-scale carrier go from nonexistent to profitable in five years?
There's probably no single, simple path. But in the case of YTL Communications in Malaysia, the answer combines aggressive construction of a 4G network, a government boost for new network operators, and a business that embraces the services that many carriers don't like.

麥嘉華(Marc Faber)筆記 11.11.13:貧富懸殊問題趨惡化




Overseas Union Enterprise : 3Q results fall short on one-off expenses(DB)

Overseas Union Enterprise
Price at 7 Nov 2013 (SGD) 2.39
Price target - 12mth (SGD) 2.98
52-week range (SGD) 3.19 - 2.34
3Q results fall short on one-off expenses

OUE reported 3Q PATMI of S$13.4m, down 43% on account of one-off cost items and decreased contributions on lower occupancies at 6 Shenton Way. 3Q revenues rose 17% YoY on account of sales at Twin Peaks, and contributions from US Bank Tower.

Hyflux : Awaiting catalysts(DBSV)

HOLD S$1.17
STI : 3,202.10
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.23 (Prev S$ 1.24)
Awaiting catalysts

• Unusually strong 3Q13 bumped up by Tuaspring desal plant
• 4Q to slow down on lack of major project recognitions; financial close of Dahej is only in 1Q14
• Orderbook is depleting; future growth dependent on new projects; >US$2bn in bidding/enquiry pipeline
• Tweak FY13.14F by +2% each; maintain HOLD on limited visibility and upside to S$1.23 TP

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust: After IDR depreciation, acquisitions may require more equity funding (SCB)

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
PRICE as of 7 Nov 2013 SGD 0.45
After IDR depreciation, acquisitions may require more equity funding

 LMRT’s 3Q13 DPU was 5% below our estimate on higher than expected interest expenses.
 NAV fell 20% q/q and leverage rose 400bps due to IDR depreciation against the SGD in 3Q13.
 We expect LMRT to acquire SGD 350mn worth of assets, but now assume 60% equity financing vs. 35% previously.
 We maintain our In-Line rating with a revised price target of SGD 0.46 (from SGD 0.51).

Vard : Brazil woes continue (DBSV)

Vard Holdings Ltd:
HOLD S$0.83
STI : 3,205.29
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.84 (Prev S$ 0.92)
Brazil woes continue

•3Q13 results were again below expectations as losses persist at  Brazil (Niteroi) yard
•Margins should recover hereon, but likely at a slower pace than previously estimated
•FY13/14F earnings cut by 24%/18%;  order win expectations maintained

Yoma : No surprises from 2QFY14 earnings (OCBC)

Yoma Strategic Holdings:
Fair value S$0.84
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.01
versus: Current price S$0.77

No surprises from 2QFY14 earnings
Yoma reported 2QFY14 PATMI of S$3.3m versus a loss of S$4.2m in 2QFY13. The return to profitability was mainly due to the sale of two buildings in Zone B of Star City, for which Yoma recognized S$15.1m of revenue and an incentive fee of S$2.3m, and lower staff costs. YTD PATMI now cumulates to S$3.76m and is judged to be mostly within expectations, making up 48.0% of our full year forecast for FY14. We note, however, that the gross margin has slipped 2.4 ppt YoY to 44.9% over the quarter due to a lower contribution from Pun Hliang Golf Estate (a higher margin project). In terms of the topline, 2QFY14 revenues increased 132.4% YoY to S$27.0m, again mostly due to recognition of residential sales and LDR sales at Star City. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$0.84.

Hyflux : earnings uncertainty ahead (CS)

Hyflux Ltd
Maintain NEUTRAL
Price (07 Nov 13 , S$) 1.17
TP (prev. TP S$) 1.30 (1.50)
Surge in 3Q13 profit on completion of Tuaspring plant; earnings uncertainty ahead

● Hyflux reported 9M13 net profit of S$51 mn, achieving 98% of consensus FY13 forecast as gross margin surged to 62% in 3Q13 from 42% in 2Q13 with the on-time completion of the Tuaspring desalination plant in Singapore.

Parkway Life : Steady 3Q as SG Hospitals Benefit from 4.4% Rental Uplift (Citi)

Parkway Life :
Price (07 Nov 13) S$2.40
Target price S$2.30
Steady 3Q as SG Hospitals Benefit from 4.4% Rental Uplift

 Citi's Take — 3Q13 DPU of 2.66 cents (2Q: 2.63 cents) was largely in-line with expectation, rising 1%qoq on the upward rent revision from its Singapore hospitals (+4.4%, commencing 23 Aug), as well as incremental contribution from the acquisition of two nursing homes in Jul-13. We expect further sequential improvement in 4Q13 on the full-quarter impact on the rent revision from the Singapore hospitals, as well as maiden contribution from the recent acquisition of five more nursing homes in Japan (completed end Sep-13).

曾淵滄專欄 11.11.13:國企老闆雙重身份



Wilmar International : Steady Execution Marks 3Q (Citi)

Wilmar International :
Price (07 Nov 13) S$3.45
Target price S$3.95
Steady Execution Marks 3Q

 Citi's Take — 3Q13 PATMI of US$416m (+3% YoY, +90 % QoQ) resulted in 9M13 PATMI of US$950m (+22% YoY), accounting for 73% of Citi’s FY13 estimate, in line with the contribution ratio of ~70% for 9M results in the last 2 years. This result underscores Wilmar’s steady execution, with good volume growth across all its operating units (ex-plantations) and more importantly, maintaining profitability for oilseeds and keeping palm merchandising margins in the strong range. 9M13  capex levels declined 20% YoY, pointing to reduced gestation costs next 12-24 months.

Rex International : Cashing in on the E&P value chain (UOBKH)

Rex International
Share Price S$0.755
Target Price S$1.27
Cashing in on the E&P value chain

• Maintain BUY but with lower target price of S$1.27 (previous: S$1.47), mainly attributable to the dilutive effect from new shares placed out.

What’s new?
• JV for new income source. Rex has formed a JV company, Rexonic, to provide proprietary, high-power ultrasound technology (Rexonic solution) for commercial oil well stimulation.

Sunday, November 10, 2013

Wilmar: More positive on 4Q13 outlook (OCBC)

Fair value S$3.55
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.06
versus: Current price S$3.45

More positive on 4Q13 outlook
Wilmar International Limited’s (WIL) 9M13 core earnings of US$950m met 76% of our FY13 forecast, even though revenue of US$32,463m only came up to 66% of our full-year estimate. Reflecting the latest results, we pare our FY13 and FY14 revenue forecasts by 10% and 13% respectively, while keeping our earnings estimates largely unchanged. Our fair value also improves from S$3.33 to S$3.55, as we roll forward our 12.5x valuation to FY14F EPS. But we believe that the recent run-up in price has captured most of the positives. As such, we maintain our HOLD rating and would be buyers closer to S$3.30.


文: 钟旭光 (译:杨佳文) 2013年11月08日 企业摘要
方圆集团(ValueMax Group,以下简称“VM”)是本地成立多年的连锁当铺业者,它最近成了第三家在新交所上市的当铺企业。在公司的股票于10月30日开始交易之后,《股市资讯》有幸能与公司的执行董事姚丽真和财务总监刘瑞晶会面,从而了解典当业的详情,以及公司的未来发展计划。


曾淵滄-股市资讯专栏 08.11.2013 中国银行业料将重新洗牌

文: 曾渊沧博士 2013年11月08日 曾渊沧博士专栏


Unisem - 3Q13 Results (HLB)

Unisem (M) Bhd -
Price Target: RM0.91 ()
Share Price: RM0.875
3Q13 Results

Fourth consecutive quarterly loss in 3Q13, albeit the quantum is shrinking thanks to fruitful cost management and business model realignment initiatives.

9M13 results registered a core net loss of RM14.6m which is within our expectations (loss of RM19m) but shy of consensus’ full year profit forecasts of RM33.1m.

MISC Bhd - Supported by asset values (CIMB)

MISC Bhd -
Current RM5.01
Target RM5.08
Supported by asset values

MISC's 9M13 core net profit was slightly below at 68% of our full-year forecast due to more-than-expected tanker shipping losses. Prospects for the petroleum and chemical divisions remain gloomy, but MISC is expected to grow group profits nevertheless on its offshore . Although we cut our FY13 core EPS forecasts by 10%, we raise our target price, based on an unchanged 30% discount to SOP, after rolling it forward to end-2014 and factoring higher expected petroleum vessel prices. While losses at its liquid bulk segments are likely to persist, asset values lend strong support to MISC's share price. Therefore, we upgrade from Underperform to Neutral.

Pavilion REIT - Still going steady (CIMB)

Pavilion REIT -
Current RM1.37
Target RM1.46
Still going steady

Pavilion's 9M13 core net profit of RM159.2m, at 75% of our and consensus full-year estimates, was in line with expectations. Net property income rose 8% yoy during the quarter, driven by contribution from Fashion Avenue.

We maintain our Neutral recommendation on Pavilion REIT. We cut our DDM-based target price to RM1.46 as we make adjustments to our cost of equity assumptions. Given the lack of re-rating catalysts such as new asset injections, we believe the outlook for Pavilion REIT is unexciting.

Vard Holdings: Strong margins pressure (OCBC)

Vard Holdings:
Fair value S$0.84
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.02
versus: Current price S$0.83
Strong margins pressure

Vard Holdings Limited’s (VARD) 3Q13 results fell short of ours and the street’s expectations, with revenue and PATMI dipping by 3.5% and 66.7% YoY to NOK2,370m and NOK76m, respectively. There was also strong margins pressure as its Niteroi yard in Brazil continued to experience cost overruns and delays.

JIM ROGERS: Charging Back Into China Shares

JIM ROGERS: Charging Back Into China Shares
Written by Andrew Vanburen (China Correspondent)
Wednesday, 06 November 2013 07:00

US INVESTOR JIM ROGERS, who currently calls Singapore home, has made a move into Hong Kong-listed China plays with a particular interest in agricultural resources.

He's calling it the first buying opportunity he’s seen there in five years.

China's state-owned banks offer more value: Pro


曾渊沧@股友通讯录 2013 年10 月份

美国联储局10 月30 日的议息结果,一切不变,超低利率依然,买债依然,不过,美股则在创新高之后出现调整。这是趁好消息沽售的正常反应,好消息公布之前,股市已升,这说明这一次的议息结果是市场预期中。

自从今年5 月联储局发出退市的预告之后,美股就一波三折,出现三次较显著的下跌。第一次见底是6 月中,第二次见底是8 月底,第三次见底是10 月初,这一次不退市,将来也一定会退市,因此,我相信今后美股依然会是重复出现大型的上落市,继续受退市阴影影响。
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
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