Saturday, November 9, 2013

Wilmar has capacity to invest up to $3.7 bil on acquisitions

Wilmar has capacity to invest up to $3.7 bil on acquisitions

Written by Bloomberg  
Friday, 08 November 2013 19:57
Wilmar International, the largest palm-oil trader, has capacity to spend US$2 billion to US$3 billion ($3.7 billion) on acquisitions and is interested in sugar businesses in Myanmar and Brazil including plantations, mills and refineries.

Wilmar has looked at companies including Indian producer Shree Renuka Sugars in recent years without proceeding, Chief Executive Officer Kuok Khoon Hong said today in Singapore.

ValueMax: Gearing For Growth With A Steady Hand

08 NOVEMBER 2013
ValueMax: Gearing For Growth With A Steady Hand
By Daxx Chong
ValueMax Group, one of the oldest and most established pawnshop chains in the local scene, has jumped on the bandwagon and became the latest of the rejuvenated industry to be listed on the Singapore Exchange. Following their successful listing on 30 October, Shares Investment had the privilege to meet up with the executive director Yeah Lee Ching and chief financial officer Carol Liew to gain valuable ground knowledge about the industry as well as understand what is in store for the company.

Shares Investment: The proliferation of modern chain pawnbrokers has given the age-old business a new shot of life, driving the number of pawnshop to grow past 200. What is the outlook for the industry, and for ValueMax?

Wilmar International : 9M FY13 results in line (CS)

Wilmar International
Maintain NEUTRAL
Price (07 Nov 13, S$) 3.45
TP (prev. TP S$) 3.73 (3.73)
9M FY13 results in line

● Wilmar’s 9M FY13 core net profit, which rose 24% YoY to US$950 mn, was in line with expectations. Its net profit was boosted by: (1) improved showing in the palm merchandising, oilseed, consumer product and sugar divisions; and (2) lower tax rate.

● Palm merchandising accounted for 52% of Wilmar's pretax profits. Its 9M FY13 pretax profit rose 14% YoY because pretax profit per tonne rose 6% YoY to US$36.7, while volumes rose 7% YoY. Wilmar is likely to be a major beneficiary of Indonesia’s mandatory biodiesel blend as it is the largest producer of palm-biodiesel.

Vard 3QFY: Brazil Woes May Spill Over To FY14 (DMG)

Vard 3QFY: Brazil Woes May Spill Over To FY14
(NEUTRAL, SGD0.83, TP: SGD0.85)

VARD’s 3Q13 earnings of NOK76m (-67% y-o-y) were disappointing, as was its 4.3% EBITDA margin vs our estimate of 7.6%. While its results were better than its 2Q13 net loss of NOK20m, margins improved only slightly as its Brazil unit continued to weigh on overall profit. We cut our FY13-15F EPS by 15-23% and downgrade the stock to NEUTRAL, with a lower SGD0.85 TP (from SGD1.10), based on a 10x FY14F P/E.

Pawnbrokers: Battle to win over customers heats up

Pawnbrokers: Battle to win over customers heats up Print
Written by Jo-Ann Huang  
Monday, 04 November 2013 18:51
ValueMax Group made its debut on the Mainboard on Oct 30. It is the third pawnshop chain to go public, hot on the heels of its direct competitors Maxi-Cash Financial Services and MoneyMax Financial Services. All three stocks were met with enthusiastic response from the market amid the burgeoning local pawnbroking industry.

That is because each of the three players has something going for it, say analysts. Value Max is the most established in terms of outlets and loan value per outlet, and is trading at a relatively low price-to-earnings multiple. Money- Max, on the other hand, is an up-and-coming player that seems to be growing relatively fast. Meanwhile, Maxi-Cash has the largest pawnshop network in Singapore.

Bank of China : Weak net interest income and deterioration in tier-1 ratio (CIMB)

Bank of China
Current HK$3.62
Target HK$3.79
3Q13: Weak net interest income and deterioration in tier-1 ratio

 Negatives outweighed positives for BOC this quarter. While asset quality remained well behaved, net interest income was relatively weak. The bank’s tier-1 ratio also dropped on the back of unexpectedly strong RWA growth.

3Q13 net profit of Rmb39.5bn was 6.3% below our forecast (lower-than-expected net interest income and higher expenses, offset by lower loan impairment charges), but beat consensus by 1.6%. 9M13 net profit was 82.4% of our full-year forecast. Our estimates are unchanged as we think net interest income should rebound in 4Q13. We reiterate our Neutral rating and HK$3.79 GGM-derived target price (0.81x FY14 P/BV).

ICBC : Profit was largely in line but earnings quality disappointed (DBSV)

BUY HK$5.47
HSI : 23,304
Price Target : 12-Month HK$ 6.67
Profit was largely in line but earnings quality disappointed

3Q net profit was largely in line; 9M13 made up 79% of full year consensus forecast
But earnings quality was disappointing; poor PPOP trends saved by low credit costs
NIM and capital adequacy were silver linings
BUY rating supported by yields, but we prefer CCB and ABC among large caps

Agricultural Bank of China : Strong net interest income (CIMB)

Agricultural Bank of China
Current HK$3.69
Target HK$4.66
3Q13: Strong net interest income

 ABC’s 3Q13 results were broadly in-line with our expectations but above consensus forecasts. Key features of the results were the strong rebound in net interest income, as well as another solid performance on asset quality. We comfortably reiterate ABC as one of our top picks.

3Q13 net profit of Rmb45.6bn was broadly in line with our forecast but beat consensus by 3.4%. 9M13 net profit accounted for 78.4% of our full-year forecast. We keep our estimates and HK$4.66 GGM-derived target price (1.19x FY14 P/BV) unchanged. ABC is one of our top picks and key catalysts include positive surprises on asset quality and the macro economy.

ChanYanChong-Commentary 08.11.2013- China’s Banking Industry Likely To Undergo A Major Transformation

 08 NOVEMBER 2013
China’s Banking Industry Likely To Undergo A Major Transformation
By Dr Chan Yan Chong

The US Federal Reserve (Fed) has announced its decision to maintain status quo at its latest round of meeting. It will keep interest rates at super low levels, and continue to buy US$85 billion worth of US government bonds every month. On the day this news was released, US stocks went into correction after hitting a record high, which is a normal reaction of investors cashing out on the back of the good news. Prior to the announcement, the stock market had already gone through a rally, indicating that the decision is within market expectations.

Friday, November 8, 2013

金群利集团为12万人完善规划 达城优质乐居

金群利集团为12万人完善规划 达城优质乐居
Created 11/08/2013 - 12:43
拓城先锋金群利集团,于6年前将森美兰芙蓉的林野变成建设规划完善的达城(Bandar Sri Sendayan),更大胆策划创建顶尖教学水平的常春藤式国际学校,及全森规模最大的星级俱乐部,为达城创造价值及增添人文内涵。



Created 11/08/2013 - 17:36



BreadTalk Group: Same ol’ same ol’ (OCBC)

BreadTalk Group:
Fair value S$0.77
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.01
versus: Current price S$0.91
Same ol’ same ol’

BreadTalk’s 3Q13 results exhibited the same traits as before. Revenue and operating profit increased following top-line growth across all three operating segments but operating margins remained depressed. In the coming quarters, we expect this trend to persist, especially with its new stated goal of having S$1b in revenue by 2016 and 2,000 stores by 2018. In our view, achieving these goals will be challenging in such a short-time as even our moderately optimistic medium-term projections has them missing the mark. More importantly, we feel that group has to address margin declines sooner rather than later as revenue growth without corresponding bottom-line increases via margin improvements will be hollow. Until then, we maintain SELL on BreadTalk with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$0.77.

Parkway Life REIT : DPU growth from acquisitions (CIMB)

Parkway Life REIT
Current S$2.40
Target S$2.37
DPU growth from acquisitions

▊ Plife’s 3Q distributable income was up 1.2%/3.5% on qoq/yoy basis. While Plife’s underlying assets are stable and management has demonstrated its ability to make yield accretive acquisitions, we believe a valuation premium has already been priced in. With 3M/9M DPU at 25/70% of our FY13 forecast, we deem it as broadly in line given the backend-loaded year from acquisitions. We account for recent acquisitions and tweak our model, leading to a 2.8% lowering of FY13 DPU, 0.7-0.9% increases in FY14-15 DPUs and a 1.7% rise in our DDM-based target price to S$2.37. Maintain Neutral on valuations.

Nera’s 3Q’13 net profit disappointed (Limtan)

 Nera’s 3Q’13 net profit disappointed by declining 42% yoy to $3.3mln as the sales rise of 4% to $50mln came in weaker than expected due to delays in start-up of capex spending by telcos, other income plunged 93% to $49,000 as lower accounts receivable was collected from an OEM agreement and SG&A expenses rose much faster than sales growth due to higher payroll and operational costs in relation to the setting up of a new subsidiary in Nigeria as well as consolidation of their Malaysian subsidiary.

 While the 3Q’13 performance was disappointing, it is encouraging that the company’s order books for the telco division rose 4.4% to $54.7mln, infocomm business order books rose 17.4% to $103mln, network infrastructure division rose 15% to 68mln and payment solutions rose 22% to $34.4mln (from Philippines and Thailand).

Hyflux - New wins needed (CIMB)

Hyflux -
Current S$1.17
Target S$1.18
 New wins needed

Hyflux's management does not lack ambition. Its 3Q13 results outperformance reflects its lower-cost regime that is commensurate with project completions. Unfortunately, we expect massive earnings slowdown in 4Q13 from start-up project.

HYF's 9M13 core net profit beat expectations, forming 114% of our FY13 estimate. We raise EPS by 20% in FY13 but lower by 6-12% in FY14-15 to reflect our new cost and achievable order-win assumptions. Our SOP-based target price is reduced to S$1.18. Our Neutral call is intact as a higher project win rate is needed for HYF's share price to re-rate.

Wilmar International - On firm ground amid lower ASP (CIMB)

Wilmar International -
Current S$3.45
On firm ground amid lower ASP

Lower palm products and soybean prices did not stop Wilmar from notching up 24% core net profit growth in 9M13. This clearly demonstrates that its earnings are more resilient to commodity price declines than upstream planters due to its integrated business model.

9M13 core net profit was broadly in line, at 75% of our full-year forecast and 73% of consensus expectations. Earnings improved for all key divisions other than plantations. We fine-tune our EPS by less than 1% but raise our SOP target price to S$4.12 as we roll it forward to end-2014. Wilmar remains an Outperform, with improving earnings prospects being the main catalyst.

Asian Pay Television Trust - Growth sprouts (CIMB)

Asian Pay Television Trust -
Current S$0.77
Target S$1.08
Growth sprouts

Taiwan licence re-zoning has so far been feared as a competitive threat. However, our analysis shows that a Taichung expansion will be hugely positive for TBC's cash flow. Expansion will turn APTT into a high-yield growth play, which should catalyse current low valuations.

曾淵滄專欄 08.11.13:股市三中前反高潮


Vard : The Worst Should Be Over (MKE)

Vard Holdings
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.83
Target price: SGD1.04 (from SGD1.12)
The Worst Should Be Over

Strength of recovery disappointed. While 3Q13 returned to profitability with PATMI of NOK76m, following a net loss of NOK20m in 2Q13, 3Q13 EBITDA margin of 4.4% (2Q13:4.1%, 3Q12:13.5%) was lower than our expected 7-8% level. This was due to unresolved work overload situation in its Niteroi yard in Brazil, resulting in further delays and cost overruns. Nevertheless, we believe that margin may have bottomed out. FY13 would nonetheless be a write-off year as we look to FY14-15 for an earnings recovery following the strong order win momentum.

COSCO Corporation: Not turning around yet (OCBC)

COSCO Corporation:
Fair value S$0.61
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.005
versus: Current price S$0.79
Not turning around yet

COSCO Corp (Singapore) reported a 6% YoY rise in revenue to S$989.4m but saw an 84% drop in net profit to S$4.2m in 3Q13, such that 9MFY13 net profit accounted for 53% of our full year estimate. The results also disappointed the street, as 9MFY13 net profit only made up 42% of the full year consensus figure of S$62.6m. Operating profit margin was only 1.2% in 3Q13 vs. 4.8% in 3Q12, mainly because of a S$33.9m provision for expected losses on construction contracts. A S$15.8m provision was also taken for inventory write-down. This resulted in a net profit margin of 0.4% in the quarter vs. 2.8% in 3Q12. With low earnings visibility and increasing debt-related risks, we maintain our SELL rating with a fair value estimate of S$0.61.

Thursday, November 7, 2013

Yoma : Strong results, positive outlook (DBSV)

Yoma Strategic Holdings:
BUY S$0.78 STI : 3,205.29
Price Target : S$ 1.02
Strong results, positive outlook;

•2Q14 earnings slightly ahead, driven by brisk property sales and pick up in construction
•Star City is still the bright spot as Landmark awaits progress
•Maintain BUY and S$1.02 TP

Net profit of S$3.3m was slightly ahead, compared to net loss of S$4.1m in 2Q13 and net profit of S$0.4m in 1Q14. Excluding S$0.8m of forex losses, core profit would have been S$4m vs our S$3.2m estimate. Revenue surged 132% y-o-y and 77% q-o-q to S$27m.

Vard - Buy ahead of earnings recovery (CIMB)

Vard Holdings Ltd -
Current S$0.83
Target S$0.98
Buy ahead of earnings recovery

While Vard's 3Q earnings miss of 5% was hardly inspirational, it cannot be argued that the company is in a downward spiral either. We expect a 2-year EPS CAGR of 15% in FY13-15 due to margins recovery. Catalysts could come from stronger earnings and orders.

Genting Singapore: 3Q13 as expected; but limited upside (OCBC)

Genting Singapore:
Fair value S$1.47
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.030

3Q13 as expected; but limited upside

Genting Singapore (GS) reported 3Q13 earnings (attributable to shareholders) of S$193.0m, versus our S$190m forecast, as both gaming and non-gaming segments performed better. Going forward, management has turned slightly more positive, as compared to the previous quarter, after seeing a better spread of VIP customers coming from SE Asia and not just China. It is also seriously exploring gaming and non-gaming opportunities in the region; and expects to announce something in the next 12 months. In line with the continued margin improvement, we up our DCF-based fair value from S$1.41 to S$1.47. But given the limited upside, we maintain our HOLD rating and would be buyers closer to S$1.40.

Falcon Energy Group - Expect more from the Marine Division (VR)

Falcon Energy Group -
Increase Exposure
 Intrinsic Value S$0.575
 Prev Closing Price S$0.410
 Expect more from the Marine Division

Falcon Energy Group (Falcon) recorded an extraordinary 2Q results with revenue rising 9.3X QoQ to US$184m while PAT soared 36X QoQ to US$77m. These figures were mainly boosted by the disposal of two jack-up rigs which amount to US$128m revenue and US$71.5m gross profit.

The sale resulted in an attributable net PATMI of US$29m to the group. That said, the group generated about US$10m of operating PATMI in 2Q, substantially higher than our previous forecast of US$5m.

Uni-Asia Holdings Limited - FY13 Results on Track to Be Stellar (VR)

Uni-Asia Holdings Limited -
Increase Exposure
 Intrinsic Value S$0.290
 Prev Close S$0.198
FY13 Results on Track to Be Stellar

Uni-Asia Holdings Limited (Uni-Asia) announced on 1 Nov 2013 that it has reaped US$2.1m of gains from the sale of a hotel investment in 4Q FY13. Hence, we are very optimistic about Uni-Asia’s full year results as we also expect 3Q results to be positive on the back of sustained business momentum. The company reported 1H FY13 net profit of US$3.1m, up 79% from a year ago; and 3Q FY12 net profit of US$2.1m a year ago. Maintain Increase Exposure.

Ascott Residence Trust : Rights to acquire (CIMB)

Ascott Residence Trust
Current S$1.29
Target S$1.15
Rights to acquire

 ART has proposed a 1-for-5 rights issue to raise proceeds of up to S$253.7m. The funds will be used to improve financial flexibility and enhance ability to pursue potential acquisitions. At 22.5% discount to its last traded price (0.72x P/BV), we view this negatively.

We reduce our FY14-15 DPU by 12% and 13%to factor in an enlarged share base and reduced interest costs. Our DDM-based target price (at discounted rate of 8.6%) drops 12.2% to S$1.15. We downgrade ART to Underperform from Neutral and view yield destructive acquisition as de-rating catalyst.

Cosco : Dragged by cost overruns (DBSV)

Cosco Corporation
STI : 3,205.54
(Downgrade from HOLD)
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.76 (Prev S$0.83)
Dragged by cost overruns

• 3Q13 below on massive provision for cost overruns
• Earnings disappointment and overhang from drillship legal case may pressure share price
• Downgrade to FULLY VALUED, TP cut to S$0.76

2Q13 below due to forex loss Worst quarter since 2008. Cosco’s 3Q13 net profit plunged 84% y-o-y and 65% q-o-q to a mere S$4.2m, a far cry from our and consensus expectations of S$16-20m.

曾淵滄專欄 07.11.13:增加競爭防止壟斷



Perennial China Retail Trust : Maiden contribution from Jihua (CIMB)

Perennial China Retail Trust
Current S$0.54
Target S$0.57
Maiden contribution from Jihua

▊ With the opening of Jihua Mall came its maiden revenue contribution of S$1.3m and pre-operating expense of S$2.7m. While pre-operating expenses may drag down earnings in FY13-14, the effect on distributions should be mitigated by the earn-out funds. 3Q/9M13 DPU accounted for 24%/71% of our FY13 forecast, in line with our and consensus expectations. Our target price, still based on 20% discount to RNAV, is unchanged at S$0.57 as we roll over estimates to FY14. We maintain a Neutral rating.

Jaya Holdings: Shipyard Losses Mar Credible Performance (DMG)

Jaya Holdings
Target Price: SGD0.62
Price: SGD0.69
Shipyard Losses Mar Credible Performance

 Jaya’s 1QFY14 results were flat q-o-q, with net income at USD7.6m. We remain concerned over the persistent losses incurred by its shipyards, as we expect these to widen as more vessels are delivered, thus leaving more yard space empty. While the stock is inexpensive, other O&G companies offer stronger growth at lower valuations. Maintain NEUTRAL, with a SGD0.62 TP.

Wednesday, November 6, 2013

MIDF upgrades semi-conductor sector, calls "buy" on Globetronics

MIDF upgrades semi-conductor sector, calls "buy" on Globetronics
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Zatil Husna of    
Wednesday, 06 November 2013 15:59

KUALA LUMPUR (Nov 6): MIDF Research has upgraded the semiconductor industry to ‘positive’ from ‘neutral’ due to increased sales on the back of strong demand for memory products.

The research firm believes that 2014 will be a positive year for the semiconductor industry.

OUE Hospitality Trust achieves higher distributable income and DPU than forecast

OUE Hospitality Trust achieves higher distributable income and DPU than forecast

Written by The Edge  
Tuesday, 05 November 2013 22:20
OUE Hospitality Trust (OUE H-Trust) said it has achieved S$16.3 million distributable income for the period from 25 July to 30 September 2013.

This is 2.7% higher than the forecast for the same period. Distribution per Stapled Security (DPS) for the period is 1.24 cents, 2.5% higher than the forecast of 1.21 cents.

Genting Singapore : Lacks short-term catalysts (DBSV)

Genting Singapore:
Hold  S$1.52,
Lacks short-term catalysts
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.64 (previous S$1.42)

•3Q13 results in line, strong growth in rolling chip cushioned weaker mass volume
•Limited clarity on potential M&A; Japan gaming liberalisation likely delayed to 1Q14
•Maintain HOLD, TP raised to S$1.64 in line with improvement in regional sector valuation

Soilbuild REIT: Strong maiden results (OCBC)

Soilbuild REIT:
Fair value S$0.82
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.057
versus: Current price S$0.77

Strong maiden results
• 3Q13 DPU exceeds forecasts
• Improved operational performance
• Ample resources for future growth

Soilbuild Business Space REIT (Soilbuild REIT) reported a stronger-than-expected set of 3Q13 results. As at 30 Sep, portfolio occupancy inched up to 99.8% from 99.7% (at listing date) due to expansion by an exiting tenant at Eightrium.

Triyards : Hi, can I take your order now? (NRA)

Triyards Holdings
Current Price S$0.68
Fair Value S$0.83
Hi, can I take your order now?

 Earnings above expectation. Triyards’ 4Q13 net profit of US$10m came in above our US$8m net profit estimate due to higher-than-expected gross profit margins and lower-than-expected operating expenses. Despite the better than expected results, we reduce our FY14 net profit forecast by 5% and our FY15-16 net profit forecast by 22-43% due to the weak order book visibility. We roll over our fair value model to 7x FY15 PER from FY14. As a result, our fair value drops from S$0.97 to S$0.83. The group declared a final dividend of S$0.02, implying a 2.9% dividend yield. Maintain

CapitaMalls Asia : Bedok Mall and Westgate to Start Contributing from 4Q (Citi)

CapitaMalls Asia
Price (30 Oct 13) S$2.04
Target price S$2.58
3Q13 Results In Line; Bedok Mall and Westgate to Start Contributing from 4Q

 9M13 Operating PATMI S$185m, up 35.8% yoy (70% of Citi’s full-yr est) – Excluding portfolio gain of S$20.3m and revaluation gain of S$178m, operating PATMI for 9M13 increased by 35.8% to S$185.3m. For 3Q13, operating PATMI of S$65.1m was +4.4% YoY (+21% QoQ) due to i) more profit recognition for Bedok Residences and ii) full quarter contribution of The Star Vista (opened in Sep 12), partially offset by higher corporate costs and taxes. Its balance sheet remained healthy with net gearing at 21% (Jun-13: 24%) and a cash position of S$1,155m (Jun-13: S$817m).

Jaya Holdings : Encouraging signs persist (DBSV)

Jaya Holdings
BUY S$0.69
STI : 3,210.67
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.90
Encouraging signs persist

• Sustained high fleet utilisation above 90% and improving day rates boost charter income in 1Q-FY14
• Newly delivered vessels have all been employed on long-term charters immediately
• Industry uptrend continues to support Jaya’s transformation to a charter income growth story
• Our BUY call and TP of S$0.90 is well supported by independent fleet valuations and healthy balance sheet

Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust : Strong organic expansion (DBSV)

Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust
HOLD S$0.93
STI : 3,201.20
(Downgrade from BUY)
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.97 (Prev S$ 1.00)
Strong organic expansion

• Earnings lifted by strong positive rental reversions
• Forward earnings growth underpinned by continued positive reversions, stable cashflow from a well patronized and a niche portfolio
• Downgrade to HOLD, TP $0.97

Cosco : The return of the provisions (CIMB)

Cosco Corporation
Current S$0.79
Target S$0.47
The return of the provisions

▊ After five consecutive quarters of provision writebacks, which offered hope that its operations might stabilise, Cosco once again reminded us that redemption is still a long way off. De-rating catalysts could come from persistent weak execution. At 55% of our FY13 core earnings, 9M was 66% below our expectation and 79% below consensus’s. The negative deviance stems from inventory writedown and the provision for contract losses. We cut our FY13 EPS by 21% to factor in the 3Q earnings miss and lower FY14-15 EPS by 9-11% on weaker margins. We maintain our Underperform rating, but raise our target price as we roll forward to 22x CY15 P/E (five-year mean).

Cambridge Industrial Trust : Resilient and transparent (DBSV)

Cambridge Industrial Trust
HOLD S$0.70
STI: 3,201.20
Price Target: 12-Month S$0.74 (Prev S$0.70)
Resilient and transparent

• 3Q13 results in line; early refinancing of expiring loans minimizes refinancing risks
• Developments and acquisitions to drive earnings growth
• HOLD, TP S$0.74 maintained

3Q13 results in line. Cambridge REIT (CREIT) reported a 5.9% and 0.7% y-o-y rise in revenues and net property income to S$23.8m and S$19.3m respectively.

曾淵滄專欄 06.11.13:改革長遠利好股市




Riverstone: Diamond In The Rough (DMG)

Riverstone Holdings
Target Price: SGD1.05
Price: SGD0.75
Diamond In The Rough

 A hidden gem, Riverstone is a nitrile glove maker set to be the next big thing. This river stone is ready to be polished into a true jewel as: i) booming demand and expanding capacity make for exciting growth, ii) a wide investment moat protecting its niche, and iii) solid financials and management. We initiate coverage with a BUY and SGD1.05 TP, based on a 16.3x industry average blended forward FY13/14 P/E.

Sin Heng: Steady improvement (Phillip)

Sin Heng Heavy Machinery
Target Price (SGD) 0.27
Closing Price (SGD) 0.22
Steady improvement, Single-digit FY14 earnings estimate

 SHHM is an efficient provider of cranes and heavy lifting equipment. They are actively implementing and growing their synergistic rental and trading business model in SEA being one of the largest buyers of Kobelco cranes, and are authorized dealers of Kato and Mighty cranes.

OUE Hospitality Trust : yield management a key focus (GS)

OUE Hospitality Trust
Price (S$) 0.88
12 month price target (S$) 0.95
In line with expectations; yield management a key focus

What surprised us
OUEHT reported income available for distribution of S$16.3mn for the 68 days from its listing date (25 July) to end 3Q13 (Sep 30), in line with expectations (2% above GSe).

(1) Mandarin Orchard Singapore (MOS) RevPAR of S$261 vs. prospectus forecast of S$253, driven by higher occupancy which offset marginally lower ADRs, amid a challenging operating environment.

Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Genting Singapore :VIP spark in 3Q13 (CIMB)

Genting Singapore
Current S$1.52
Target S$1.17
VIP spark in 3Q13

▊ 3Q13 results came in within expectations with 9M13 core net profit accounting for 71% of our FY13 forecast. We expect GENS to finish the year strongly on the back of the usual seasonality and a continued conducive credit environment for its VIP business. No change to our RNAV-based target price or EPS forecasts. We maintain our Underperform rating as we are still expecting de-rating catalysts from potential disappointing VIP GGR numbers, which remain volatile.

Hi-P International : Weak results, worsening financials (DBSV)

Hi-P International
STI : 3,210.67
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.47
Weak results, worsening financials

• Net profit of S$3.1m met lowered expectations, margins collapsed on higher proportion of assembly work
• Working capital cycle has weakened, first ever net debt position of S$42m
• Guidance points to weaker 2H13, no recovery in sight
• Maintain Fully Valued and S$0.47 TP

Soilbuild Business Space REIT : Maiden results beats forecast (DBSV)

Soilbuild Business Space REIT
BUY S$0.76
STI : 3,210.67
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.87
Maiden results beats forecast

• Maiden DPU of 0.76 Scts ahead of IPO forecast
• Steady growth in distributions in 2014, supported by organic drivers
• BUY, S$0.87 TP maintained

DPU of 0.76 Scts for period ended Sep 13. Soilbuild REIT (SBREIT) reported a good maiden set of results for the period ended 30 Sept13 (1.5 months) which was ahead of prospectus forecast, but in line with our expectations.

Cosco Corporation : Drillship saga's aftermath (DBSV)

Cosco Corporation
HOLD S$0.80
STI: 3,207.85
Price Target: 12-month S$0.83
Drillship saga's aftermath

• 3Q13 results may reflect reversal and provision for drillship contract termination
• Striving to be the top offshore yard in China
• Earnings recovery to take time
• Maintain HOLD; S$0.83 TP

3Q earnings could be swung by drillship provision. We expect Cosco to report a recurring net profit of S$16m in its upcoming 3Q results due on 5th Nov (after market), assuming a forex loss of S$5m resulting from RMB strengthening against USD. However, we reckon earnings could be affected by the potential reversal of profits previously recognised on the project (but likely to be minimal), and adjustment/provision for the termination of drillship contract.

SMRT : Yet to see light (DBSV)

STI: 3,210.67
Price Target: 12-month S$1.08 (Prev S$1.20)
Yet to see light

• 2Q14 results below expectations, net profit slumped by 56% y-o-y/ 12% q-o-q to S$14.4m
• Fare revenue segments continue to register EBIT losses, offset by non-fare segments
• 1H14 DPS of just 1 Sct (1H13: 1.5 Scts)
• Cut earnings by 25%-28% to factor in higher operating costs. Maintain Fully Valued, TP lowered to S$1.08

Wilmar : Oilseeds Recovery; Palm Volumes (Citi)

Wilmar International
Price (04 Nov 13) S$3.40
Target price S$3.95
2H13’s Focus – Oilseeds Recovery; Palm Volumes

 3Q13 results Nov 7th—Wilmar is scheduled to report after market hours. In the past three years, 3Q has been equivalent to 20-32% of full-year profits. Investors are expected to focus on its oilseeds division (margin recovery) as well as its performance in the palm merchandising division (sustaining volume share, profitability).

CapitaMalls Asia : Operational improvements priced in (SCB)

CapitaMalls Asia
PRICE as of 30 Oct 2013 SGD 2.05
Operational improvements priced in

•CapitaMalls Asia’s (CMA) 3Q13 earnings were in line with our and consensus estimates.
• We believe retail sales recovery in China is priced in. CMA outperformed the sector by 12% in the past four months.

SMRT Corporation: Net profit falls 57% YoY (OCBC)

SMRT Corporation:
Fair value S$1.30
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.02
versus: Current price S$1.30

Net profit falls 57% YoY

As expected, SMRT's 2QFY14 revenue grew 5.3% YoY to S$296.3m on account of higher rail and bus ridership but operating profit fell 50.7% YoY to S$20.0m and net profit declined 57.1% YoY to S$14.3m. Higher staff costs and depreciation expenses were the main causes, and we expect them to continue weighing down SMRT’s financial performance for 2HFY14. Furthermore, the lack of a fare increase will ensure the continued gap between top-line growth and operating expenses for the time being. Nonetheless, despite this weak set of 2Q14 results, we do not expect SMRT’s share price to slide further as its woes have been well-documented over the past year. That said, SMRT remains an unattractive investment at this juncture as it remains susceptible to downside moves in response to bad press and/or service disruptions. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$1.30.

曾淵滄專欄 05.11.13:對內銀股充滿信心


Jaya Holdings - Keeping the pace (CIMB)

Jaya Holdings -
Current S$0.69
Target S$0.90
Keeping the pace

Jaya started 1QFY6/14 in the same fine fashion that it ended 4Q13, sustaining its fleet utilisation at 91%. We expect the stock to be re-rated as its endeavour to change its earnings profile from a lumpy to a recurring one has started to bear fruit.

At 25% of our full-year numbers, 1Q core earnings were in line with our expectation but 20% below Bloomberg consensus. We keep our FY14-16 EPS and maintain an Outperform rating with a higher target price as we roll forward to 1x CY14 P/BV (its 4-year mean). Catalysts could come from stronger chartering operations, shipbuilding wins and clarity from the strategic review.

CapitaLand - Expect a Stronger 4Q (MKE)

CapitaLand -
Buy (unchanged)
Share price:SGD3.16
Target price:SGD4.10 (unchanged)
Expect a Stronger 4Q

Decent 3Q, but expect a stronger last quarter. CapitaLand reported a core 3Q13 PATMI of SGD101.8m (-6% QoQ; +13% YoY), taking 9M13 core PATMI to SGD343.1m. Although this is merely 50% of consensus full-year estimate, it was in line due to the expected stronger 4Q with the completion of a number of residential projects in China. Valuation remains attractive, in our view, and we reiterate our BUY recommendation and TP of SGD4.10.

Monday, November 4, 2013

S-REITs enjoy positive rental reversion

S-REITs enjoy positive rental reversion
Insider Asia
Written by Insider Asia    
Monday, 04 November 2013 09:32

THE US Federal Reserve decided to put off tapering, again, in its latest meeting last week and will continue with its US$85 billion (RM270 billion) a month bond purchase programme. Followed by the 16-day government shutdown and its still as yet to be ascertained impact on the US economy, the possibility of another debt ceiling stand-off early next year as well as sluggish job growth in recent months, market observers now believe that any tapering decision will likely only come in March 2014 — although the Fed did not rule out the possibility of such a decision in its last meeting for the year, in December.

你准备好了吗? 消费税真的来了!

你准备好了吗? 消费税真的来了!
Created 11/04/2013 - 12:56






「商品大王」羅傑斯(Jim Rogers)6月時曾表示,在中國經濟崩塌之前不會投資中國股市,但事隔數個月又轉口風看好;他於上周末出席廣州一個論壇時表示,最近又買入中國股票,並且會進一步增持,認為是5年來首次看到機會。


Yongnam Holdings - Hit By Cost Overruns

Yongnam Holdings -
Hold ( from Buy)
Share price: SGD0.245
Target price: SGD0.24 (from SGD0.40)
Hit By Cost Overruns

Operating loss expected in 3Q13, downgrade to HOLD. Yongnam is expected to report an operating loss in the upcoming 3Q13 (to be released on 11 November) due to two factors - (1) Cost overruns from three ongoing projects; and (2) A significant one-off loss on disposal of fixed assets. We lower our earnings estimates for FY13-15 by up to 37%, which places us significantly lower than consensus estimates. In view of the upcoming losses, which will dent FY13 earnings, and in the absence of new contracts being secured YTD, we are less optimistic about its earnings prospects. This leads us to downgrade Yongnam to a HOLD with a SGD0.24 TP, based on 10x FY14 EPS P/E (previously 10x FY13-15E P/E).

CapitaLand - More deliveries in 4Q13 (CIMB)

CapitaLand -
Current S$3.16
Target S$3.91
More deliveries in 4Q13

CMA's strong development sales and yield improvements at its retail malls were harbingers of a positive 3Q for CapLand and augur well for the latter's future operating performances. Higher project costs affected CapLand's bottom line but we expect margins to improve in 4Q13 when most of its FY13 China units are handed over.  3Q13 core EPS was slightly below at 16% of our FY13 estimate (9M13 at 62%) due to higher project costs. We adjust our FY13-15 core EPS by +4%/-6% for sales-recognition changes. Our target, still at a 20% discount to RNAV, is intact. Maintain Outperform with catalysts to come from potential restructuring and operational improvements.

Cosco Corporation - Drillship saga's aftermath (OCBC)

Cosco Corporation -
HOLD S$0.80
STI: 3,207.85
Price Target: 12-month S$0.83
Drillship saga's aftermath

• 3Q13 results may reflect reversal and provision for drillship contract termination
• Striving to be the top offshore yard in China
• Earnings recovery to take time

Cambridge Industrial Trust - It’s all about debt (CIMB)

Cambridge Industrial Trust -
Current S$0.70
Target S$0.79
It’s all about debt

Proactive capital and risk management has allowed CIT to be in a stronger position than before. Given its robust balance sheet, we believe CIT is well positioned to make acquisitions when the opportunity arises while continuing to grow through AEIs.

3Q13 results were largely in line with our and consensus estimates. 3Q13 DPU accounted for 24% of our FY13 forecast, with 9M13 DPU meeting 72%. We tweak our model to account for the slightly weaker than expected results and roll over our valuations to FY15. In view of the strong balance sheet, we upgrade our rating from Neutral to Outperform with a higher DDM-based (discount rate: 8.3%) target price of S$0.79.

SMRT Corp. - Earnings Continue To Surprise On The Downside (MKE)

SMRT Corp. -
Sell (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.29
Target price: SGD0.80 (from SGD1.00)
Earnings Continue To Surprise On The Downside

Steep fall in earnings, cost escalation continues. SMRT reported a 57% decline in net income to SGD14.4m for 2QFY03/14. Profitability of the fare-based business continued to suffer from the lack of fare increase in an escalating cost environment. The core MRT business recorded EBIT of merely SG3.9m YTD, as compared to EBIT of SGD65m for whole of FY03/13. Despite government aid from the Bus Service Enhancement Programme (BSEP), the bus operations continued to suffer losses at a run-rate of SGD7m a quarter. Overall, earnings for the quarter surprised on the downside and we lower our forecasts accordingly.

Global Premium Hotels: Solid performance in 3Q13 as expected (OCBC)

Global Premium Hotels:
Fair value S$0.33
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.002
versus: Current price S$0.25

Solid performance in 3Q13 as expected
• Profit up 19% YoY
• RevPAR stable YoY
• Maintain BUY

The 3Q13 results for Global Premium Hotels (GPH) were in-line with our expectations. Total revenue climbed 5.7% YoY to S$15.7m and gross profit rose 5.7% to S$13.6m.

ValueMax : Fast cash on hand (NRA)

ValueMax Group
IPO Price S$0.51
Fast cash on hand

Summary: ValueMax Group is one of the oldest pawnbroking chains in Singapore, providing pawnbroking services, retail and trading of pre-owned jewellery and gold. The group intends to distribute dividends of at least 50% of its net profits for the next three years, implying a 2-3% dividend yield. We like that the pawnbroking industry is relatively stable. However, we think that its short term performance could be hit by the weakness in gold price. We recommend a STAG, given the positive first week debut track record of its two peers.

Singapore Post: Still delivering on rainy days (OCBC)

Singapore Post:
Fair value S$1.32
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.06
versus: Current price S$1.30

Still delivering on rainy days
• No surprises in results
• Low margins in tough environment
• Still a haven for yield seekers

Singapore Post (SingPost) reported a 32.6% YoY rise in revenue to S$203.8m and a 8.5% increase in net profit to S$35.6m in 2QFY14, such that 1HFY14 net profit accounted for 49.4% of our full year estimates.

曾淵滄專欄04.11.13 :0地方主義玩殘外資



Neptune Orient Lines - A Disappointing Peak Season (MKE)

Neptune Orient Lines -
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.06
Target price: SGD1.01 (from SGD1.28)
A Disappointing Peak Season

A weak showing in a traditionally peak season. At first glance a net profit of USD20m for 3Q13 seems commendable amid a challenging operating environment, however, we would like to highlight that it was inflated by an USD33.9m foreign exchange gain. Without this one-off gain, it would have been a loss-making quarter. 3Q13 revenue at its core liner unit missed our expectation on account of a 5% decline in trade volume and 9% contraction in rates.

CapitaMalls Asia - Well-Stocked for this Christmas (MKE)

CapitaMalls Asia -
Buy (unchanged)
Share price:SGD2.04
Target price:SGD2.56 (from SGD2.51)
Well-Stocked for this Christmas

Opening two more malls before Christmas. CapitaMalls Asia (CMA) reported in line 3Q13 core PATMI of SGD65.1m (+4% YoY; +22% QoQ), taking 9M13 core PATMI to SGD185.3m, or 75% of our full-year estimate. CMA is on track to open Bedok Mall and Westgate (both in Singapore) before Christmas this year, which will bring greater cheer as they underpin earnings growth for FY14. CMA remains our preferred pick amongst Singapore developers, and we have raised our TP to SGD2.56, pegged to a 10%-discount to RNAV.

Sunday, November 3, 2013

CapitaLand Limited: Continuing strong run in residential sales (OCBC)

CapitaLand Limited:
Fair value S$3.77
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.07
versus: Current price S$3.12
Continuing strong run in residential sales

CapitaLand (CAPL) reported 3Q13 PATMI of S$135.5m which decreased 8.7% YoY mostly due to lower portfolio gains recognized over the quarter. We judge this to be mostly within expectations as 9M13 PATMI now cumulates to S$706.9m which constitutes 80.3% of our full year forecast. The group sold an impressive 1151 residential home units in Singapore over 9M13 versus 329 units in 9M12, and we continue to be positive on management’s focus on realistic pricing and generating sales. That said, with significant uncertainty in the residential space and 1239 unsold units in its pipeline, we see the group’s FY14 domestic sales likely easing from current levels. Residential sales in China continued the firm rate of sales seen over the year so far with 2398 homes sold in 9M13 versus 1978 homes in 9M12. Maintain BUY with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$3.77.

SMRT sees margin stabilisation

SMRT sees margin stabilisation
By Joan Ng
SMRT Corp reported a 56.8% decline in earnings to $14.4 million for 2QFY2014 ended Sept despite posting a 5.3% increase in revenue to $296.3 million. Hitting the company’s bottom line heavily was a 27% increase in staff costs to $118.5 million. Repair and maintenance costs, meanwhile, rose 14.2% to $29.8 million.

Operating profit at its train business has sunk from $24.3 million in 2QFY2013 to just $1 million this quarter.

The company’s balance sheet does not look great either. Cash levels have sunk dramatically. As at March 31, 2013, SMRT had $332.5 million in cash and $213.8 million in fixed deposits. As at the end of September, however, cash had declined to $104.7 million while fixed deposits were down to $68.6 million. Net gearing is now up to 58% of equity from just 8% before. SMRT has $150 million worth of fixed rate notes due in October 2014.





Neptune Orient Lines - No respite from freight rate woes (OCBC)

Neptune Orient Lines -
HOLD S$1.06
STI : 3,230.44
Price Target : 12-month S$ 1.10 (Prev S$ 1.13)
 No respite from freight rate woes

• Rate restorations on Asia-Europe in June-July helped container liner division to break even in 3Q13

• But results still slightly below as Intra-Asia rates plunged owing to capacity cascading from mainlanes

• Current spot rates on Asia-Europe are back at panic levels again , but no major capacity reduction measures seen

手套帝国 始于中路

手套帝国 始于中路
Created 10/28/2013 - 15:24



大馬房東博士 看亞洲房地產泡沫|

Sunway REIT - Guiding for lower DPU (HLG)

Sunway REIT -
Price Target: RM1.26 ()
Share price: RM1.36
Guiding for lower DPU

1Q14 core PAT rose 6.5% yoy to RM55.4m, making up 25% and 24% of HLIB and consensus estimates respectively.


KLCC Property Holdings - No Surprises (MKE)

KLCC Property Holdings -
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: MYR6.45
Target price: MYR6.70 (unchanged)
No Surprises

Maintain HOLD. 9M13 core pretax profit of MYR651m was within our expectations but above consensus estimates. While long-term earnings growth prospects are intact, KLCCP lacks rerating catalysts as full control on the Suria KLCC mall (Suria) is unlikely to materialize anytime soon. KLCCP’s immediate focus is on the redevelopment/development of the Kompleks Dayabumi (KD) and Lot D1. We maintain our FY13-15 earnings forecasts and MYR6.70 TP (on 0.8 beta assumption).

How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock