Saturday, January 7, 2012

Weekend Comment Jan 6: Bright start to the new year

Weekend Comment Jan 6: Bright start to the new year

IF THE LOCAL stock market’s performance in the first week of the New Year is anything to go by, strategists who have been advocating a defensive investment approach for fear of whiplash from Europe’s debt crisis have got it all wrong.

The Straits Times Index started the first trading day of 2012 with a bang, up 1.6% at 2,688.36, its highest close in three weeks. It ended above the 2,700 level daily for the rest of the shortened trading week, closing on Friday at 2,715.59, a weekly gain of 2.6%.

The STI’s performance so far may be nothing more than a result of the Capricorn Effect. Still, it could also suggest that investors have somewhat got accustomed to the slew of bad news from the beleaguered euro zone and would rather put some of their money to work than sit on it while waiting for events there to unfold.

Indeed, the Greek prime minister’s warning that the country could run out of cash in March, lacklustre demand for France’s €7.96-billion ($13.2 billion) bond sale, and even Singapore’s 4.9% q-o-q economic contraction in 4Q2011 – all reported this week – hardly kept investors away from the market.

“While there are still a lot of uncertainties out there, it may not be the best strategy to huddle in defensives,” says Terence Wong, research head at DMG & Partners. Based on down periods over the past 15 years, Wong says the stock market typically rebounds when the economy is at its worst.

“The inflection point for the STI in the past three crises coincided with the worst quarter in terms of GDP change year-on-year,” he says. The current quarter, according to DMG’s economics team, is likely to be the worst for the Singapore economy this year. If that’s the case, a rebound in the market could be imminent. “If history is anything to go by, the Singapore market may turn around as soon as the first quarter of 2012,” says Wong.

For small caps, DMG’s top stock picks are those in the technology and construction sectors. Tech stocks covered by DMG have lost about 20% in value since August 2011, hurt partly by the fallout from the floods in Thailand.

“HDD major Western Digital, which was the most severely affected by the floods in Thailand, is recovering much faster than expected. The component suppliers will thus start ramping up their production in the current quarter,” says Wong. “That is the inflection point I have been looking out for, and should result in interest returning to the tech sector.”

DMG’s tech favourites include Hi-P International, Nera Telecommunications, Trek 2000 International and Adampak. As for stocks in the construction industry, it likes BBR Holdings, Kian Ann Engineering, KSH Holdings, Lian Beng Group and OKP Holdings. “Given the strong pipeline of contracts, especially from the government sector, the construction players will not go hungry even if we head into a recession,” Wong says.

In the event of a recession in Singapore, Daiwa believes companies whose fortunes are tied to domestic consumption in Asian economies will still do well. It expects the city-state to slip into recession in 1H2012 as Europe’s debt woes and the US economy’s benign growth take a toll on its exports.

Sectors that Daiwa are upbeat on include palm oil, real estate investment trusts focused on the office, industrial and hospitality markets, and even banking. “Notwithstanding the challenges for loan growth given the economic slowdown and our bearish outlook for the housing market, these risks for the Singapore banks appear priced in with the sector trading at a 1.1x price-to-book ratio.”

Daiwa’s top stock picks include DBS Group Holdings, CapitaCommercial Trust, CDL Hospitality Trusts, Suntec REIT and Golden Agri-Resources.

Publish date: 06/01/12

The Hidden Dragons (KE)

The Hidden Dragons
Unlocking the steep discounts
Are discounts warranted? Conventional wisdom appears to dictate that conglomerates and complex structured businesses should trade at a discount vis-à-vis the more focused companies. We sieve through the listed conglomerates and companies in Singapore that fall under this perception to determine if they have any hidden value that can be unlocked. By that, we mean spin-offs, carve-outs and privatisations that could trigger a re-rating of the companies.

An endangered species. A few decades ago, conglomerates were considered fashionable, but today, this model is fast becoming an endangered species in many developed and efficient markets. The investment community has built up a compelling case against the conglomerate model. Yet, the Singapore stock market has not one, but four large conglomerates – Keppel Corporation, Sembcorp Industries, Fraser and Neave, and the Jardine Group – as well as several miniconglomerates. Also interesting is a breed of companies with complex cross-holding structures.

The case against conglomerates. There are three main arguments against a conglomerate model. First, diversification offers no added advantage to investors. Second, the value of higher-quality businesses tends to get suppressed by weaker businesses. Third, moving away from core competencies spawns inefficiencies and risks loss of focus.

The case for conglomerates. While there is substantial evidence against conglomerates, the model is not without redeeming qualities. Capable management at the helm, good corporate culture and strong corporate governance are some characteristics of a conglomerate that can go a long way to protect and enhance shareholders’ value. Moreover, large conglomerates usually have a central treasury that ensures efficient capital management across the group.

The acid test. For us, the acid test of a good conglomerate is whether shareholders’ value would be enhanced. Keppel Corp has been a successful conglomerate and we see no reason for this to change. However, its stake in M1 could be divested and the money returned to the shareholders. Sembcorp Industries may sell its stake in Gallant Venture or develop a business trust to house its utilities assets, but overall, the structure works fine. Fraser and Neave should consider disposing of its printing business to refocus on its food and beverage business, or to relist its property business. We suggest that it could be a takeover target as well. The Jardine Group has a complex crossholding structure but more interestingly, there seems to be a mispricing in Jardine Cycle & Carriage. A misplaced market perception of Haw Par Corporation may be the reason for its discount but we think that there is every possibility for unwinding. Lastly, we believe that UIC should privatise SingLand to close the valuation gap between the two.

Where are the dragons hiding?
Alive and thriving in Asia. A wave of demergers swept through the developed markets such as the United States from the 1980s, resulting in the breakup of several big conglomerates like the International Telephone & Telegraph Corporation. In Asia, however, conglomerates are still very much alive and thriving, not least because of legacy issues or the family dynasties that are in control. In our opinion, there are some real advantages to the continued existence of such a structure and we seek to determine if the modi operandi that have built these giants to what they are today can deliver a similar success in an increasingly efficient market.

Outperformers in Singapore. The Singapore stock market consists of a few large conglomerates. These include Keppel Corporation, Sembcorp Industries, Fraser and Neave, Jardine Matheson and Jardine Strategic. Looking at their past performances, these companies have generally outperformed the Straits Times Index (STI), except for Haw Par (Figure 1). On a YoY basis, there have been more instances of outperformance than underperformance relative to the STI

Breaking up to create more value… A common practice in valuing a conglomerate is to apply a discount to its sum-of-the-parts valuation. This is so because investors generally do not have a favourable view of this business structure. In our case, we have similarly applied a discount of between 5% and 15% to the conglomerate companies under our coverage. In other instances, companies automatically trade at a discount to their book value, especially for those with exposure to the real estate market. Logically, if the discount serves to penalise the diversified structure, then a breakup should help create a higher value of each component business.

…but not a quick fix for valuation. However, it is important not to misconstrue the breakup of a conglomerate as a quick-fix solution for its valuation gap. Ultimately, it is essential to assess if the independent entity, separated from its parent, can survive on its own and generate value for shareholders. We have examined the business structures of the various conglomerates and identified the possibility of streamlining, spin-offs or divestiture potentials that may create greater value for the shareholders. For some companies, patience is key to unlocking their value. For others, their diversified structure may have been one of the main reasons for their continued existence and success. The ideas put forward in this report may or may not happen but they represent our opinion and assessment of the possible actions these companies can take to enhance shareholder value.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Kim Eng Research
Publish date: 06/01/12



2012年1月5日歐元走勢大跌,兌美元由1.29跌落至1.27,跌破了2011年1月的低點,暗示歐債問題依然無法解決。 法國2012年標售79.6億歐元的公債來募資金,其中具指標性的十年期公債共佔40.2億歐元,平均殖利率達到3.29%,高於2011年12月1日的3.18%,而且認購比率(bid-to-cover ratio)也大幅下降,這代表融資的成本不斷升高。
其中,歐元區最大經濟體德國,2011年12月PMI指數為48.4,雖然亦有略微回升,不過依舊低於50;德國尚且如此,更不用說其他經濟體質較差的歐洲國家了,例如歐豬五國(葡萄牙、愛爾蘭、希臘、義大利、西班牙)等等。 從籌碼面來觀察,芝加哥商業交易所(CME)歐元期貨投機交易人的「淨空頭部位」,在上個禮拜創下新高,達到了127,879口。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Yahoo!奇摩理財
 Publish date:06/01/12


作者:BWCHINESE中文网专栏作家 吴东华 2012-01-06 星期五











责任编辑:Leo Wei

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: BWCHINESE中文网
Publish date: 06/01/12



( 2011/12/30 08:39 黃珮婷 )

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Yahoo!奇摩理財

 Publish date:30/12/11

Reality check sets in for Singapore market

Business Times - 07 Jan 2012

Reality check sets in for Singapore market


AFTER flirting on the sunny side for the first few days of the new year, Singapore's stock market found itself haunted by gloomy realities once again yesterday.

The local bourse was in negative territory for a large part of the day but the Straits Times Index (STI), helped by a few stocks, managed to close marginally up at 2,715.59 points.

Brokers said worries about EU debt crisis had returned to weigh down on the psyche of market players, suggesting more volatility for stocks in the week ahead.

This was despite signs that the US economy is holding up relatively well. Boosted by improving jobs data and better-than-expected non-manufacturing supplier index in December, the broadbased S&P 500 index rose for the third day on Thursday.

Supporting the Singapore benchmark index yesterday were Keppel Corp, which rose 16 cents to $9.60; Genting Singapore, which gained 3.5 cents to $1.565; and DBS, which edged six cents up to $11.86.

Among the penny stocks, rubber supplier GMG Global continued to attract attention, as did TT International, following a recent deal aimed at reviving its stalled Big Box project in Jurong.

Analysts and strategists remain divided on the prospects for the Singapore market.

While some investment houses such as RBS and IIFL have downgraded Singapore, citing extraneous circumstances and policy-tightening measures (especially in property), others such as DMG Research see light at the end of the tunnel by mid-year.

'If history is anything to go by, the Singapore market may turn around as soon as the first quarter of 2012,' wrote research head Terence Wong. 'A check into the down periods over the past 15 years reveals that the recovery always coincides with the trough in the economy. Debunking conventional wisdom, we have noticed that both large and small caps move up in tandem, rather than a lag in recovery for the latter.'

Indeed, many weary and wary investors must be hoping he is right, though the commitment - judging by market volumes - does not seem particularly encouraging.

That said, analysts widely acknowledge that valuations are beginning to look compelling, especially amongst blue chips and bellwethers.

'For us, the acid test of a good conglomerate is whether shareholders' value would be enhanced,' noted Kim Eng Research.

'Keppel Corp has been a successful conglomerate and we see no reason for this to change. However, its stake in M1 could be divested and the money returned to the shareholders. Sembcorp Industries may sell its stake in Gallant Venture or develop a business trust to house its utilities assets, but overall, the structure works fine.

'Fraser and Neave should consider disposing of its printing business to refocus on its food and beverage business, or to relist its property business. We suggest that it could be a takeover target as well.

'The Jardine Group has a complex cross-holding structure but more interestingly, there seems to be a mispricing in Jardine Cycle & Carriage. A misplaced market perception of Haw Par Corporation may be the reason for its discount but we think that there is every possibility for unwinding. 'Lastly, we believe that UIC should privatise SingLand to close the valuation gap between the two.'

Interesting. But it will take a bit more convincing to get beaten and bruised investors to bite.

Publish date:07/01/12


BWCHINESE中文网 作者:董登新 2012-01-05 星期四 大 中 小 默认












责任编辑:Leo Wei

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: BWCHINESE中文网
Publish date: 06/01/12



来源 2012年1月6日

在经历低迷的一年后,市场投资风向似乎正转向新兴市场——在2011年,摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)新兴市场指数下跌20%,同时落后于欧洲和美国市场。在花旗集团全球新兴市场股票分析师杰弗里•丹尼斯(Geoffrey Dennis)看来,鉴于利率水平可能继续下行,中国经济可能软着陆,这一资产类别的前景是光明的。













Publish date: 06/01/12

普华永道接管 亚洲石油中心

普华永道接管 亚洲石油中心
财经新闻 财经 2012-01-07 11:51
(吉隆坡6日讯)睦兴旺(Muhibbah,5703,主板建筑股)今日向马交所报备,亚洲石油中心(APH)融资单位——联昌国际银行(CIMB Bank),已委任普华永道为该计划的接管人兼管理人,执行重组工作。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date: 07/01/12

曾淵滄教路: 歐債危機雖露曙光 內地政策惹憂慮

歐債危機雖露曙光 內地政策惹憂慮







輯錄自 435期 Book A

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊
Publish date: 27/12/11










輯錄自 435期 Book A

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊
Publish date: 27/12/11

2012 Off to a Good Start - Will it Last?

, On Saturday 7 January 2012, 12:12

2012 seems to be off to a good start - so far the S&P is up 20.21 points or 1.61%. A closer look however shows that all of those gains occurred within the first hour of trade on January 3rd. There've been no further gains since.

One good hour doesn't make for a successful year, just as one sunny day (or hour) doesn't make a summer. Can this rally outlast the many bearish head winds? Here are some of the problems stocks will have to overcome:
The January Effect
The S&P has a tendency to record some kind of a top in January. This was the case in 2008, 2009 and 2010. QE2 continued to push stocks higher in 2011. Since 2002, the S&P reached a January top followed by a drop greater than 8% five (out of ten) times.

When the S&P didn't fall in January it reached some kind of a high (in February or March) followed by a decline greater than 6%, four out of five times. Detailed results are shown below.

Mean Reversion
Early new-year declines seem to be a part of the mean reversion process. End of year bullishness seems to be a reliable fixture of the seasonal calendar. Higher prices stroke investors' egos, which results in a higher percentage of bullish investors.

Excessive bullishness almost always leads to lower prices and January commonly puts a damper on the Santa Claus Rally bullishness. This year appears to be no exception.

Take a moment to read some of the 2011 forecasts published in December 2010:
'Experts agree: Get over your fear and get back into stocks' - USA Today
'10 strategists see the S&P finishing next year 1,373' - Barron's
'Long way from dog days: 2011 might see record Dow' - AP

Following a strong year-end performance, not only the S&P (SNP: ^GSPC), Dow Jones (DJI: ^DJI) and Nasdaq (Nasdaq: ^IXIC) have gained steam, investor sentiment is also at the highest level since mid 2011.

The Euro Can't Find Support

Even though U.S. equities are hanging tight, the euro (NYSEArca: FXE - News) just can't find support and fell below the April 2009 and January 2011 low at 1.287. The dollar (NYSEArca: UUP - News) on the other hand keeps going up.

Gold (NYSEArca: GLD - News), and silver (NYSEArca: SLV - News) prices add an interesting twist as they move higher despite a falling euro.

Resistance Ahead
Via the November 30 ETF Profit Strategy update I reasoned that: 'Based on seasonality and today's volume it appears that higher prices are likely. I would like to see a slow grind higher within the 1,226 - 1,xxx (reserved for subscribers) range that takes all of December and early January. This would suggest a virtually untradeable December followed by a great opportunity to go short in January.'

We got higher prices amidst a 'virtually untradeable December.' The rally doesn't have to be over just yet, in fact I'd like to see the Dow Jones and S&P push up to test some previously formidable trend lines.

There really are two separate trend lines and a number of important Fibonacci levels that make up a strong resistance cluster. One trend line is nearly 15 years old and marked the May 2011 top. This trend line ran through 1,377 in April, when the April 3 ETF Profit Strategy update stated that: 'In terms of resistance levels, the 1,369 - 1,382 range is a strong candidate for a reversal of potentially historic proportions.'

The second trend line has kept a lid on every advance since the October 2007 top. The various Fibonacci resistance levels coincide with the retracement levels of most counter trend rallies since the 2007 high. In short, this resistance cluster looks pretty daunting.

High Probability in the Making
There is no such thing as a 100% correct forecast. Investing is a game of probabilities and if you keep the probabilities in your favor consistently, you will prosper.

Based on the January effect, sentiment and overhead resistance, I expect a high probability setup to go short sometime in January.

The ETF Profit Strategy Newsletter identifies the target level of this rally (based on various important resistance levels) along with a short, mid and long-term forecast and actionable ETF profit strategies.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: yahoo
Publish date: 07/01/12


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date: 02/01/12

Buy BofA in 2012?

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC
Publish date:06/01/12



身在北京覆盖可投资中国市场策略,我们有幸了解到内地和海外投资者双方的观点。在交流中我们发现国外投资者更为谨慎,而国内投资者相对更为乐观。海外投资者 的怀疑情绪主要源于对地方政府融资平台、银行坏账、房地产泡沫、流动性、经济增长以及通胀压力的担忧;而国内投资者的乐观情绪则主要是基于对未来政策方向 和结构性改革的判断。这有时确实令人感到困惑。

国内外投资者对政策立场改变时机的不同解读可能是导致这两种截然不同观点的原因所在。简单来说,国内投资者往往基于市场传闻买入,而海外投资者则根据实际新闻发布后而采取行动。这并无对错之分,但这种对政策经济解读的差异可能是中国股市一直领先于全球市场波动性约12个月的主要原因(请参考我们于2011年2月28日发布的英文报告“The Spring of Discontent”)。例如,上证指数于2007年底见顶,VIX指数随后于2008年底达到峰值;上证指数在2010年7-11月期间上扬,间隔一年后全球市场波动性从2011年7月底开始大幅上升。如果这种领先性得以持续,近期上证综指的大跌可能预示着2012年下半年全球市场波动性的下行以及市场的反弹行情。

2011年 全年,国内市场一直被政策放松的时机所谓困扰。市场跌幅越大、经济数据越差,对政策放松的猜测声越高。但我们认为市场普遍忽略了一点:那就是除非货币政策 大幅超出预期,否则适度放松难以改变市场走向和经济增长放缓的趋势。存款增速下滑和外汇占款减少是贷款增速放缓的主要原因。如果贷存比监管不能放松,单纯 几次下调存款准备金率难以推动M2和贷款增的大幅增长。因此,2012年偶尔出现个位数的M2增速也将不足为奇。不过,届时存款准备金率的下调可能一开始会在市场醒悟之前被解读为货币政策的大幅放松,从而推动市场走出几波短暂的反弹行情。





注释:此报告为可投资的中国策略报告英文版首页的翻译版。请与中金公司销售交易部联系以获取我们在2012年1月3日发表的报告“Some Questions from 2011”。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 福布斯中文网
Publish date: 04/01/12

China Property Sector Key Risk in 2012

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CNBC
Publish date:05/01/12

China –Outlook 2012

China –Outlook 2012
Slower growth on weaker exports
We forecast that China’s economic growth is likely to slow further to 8.6% in 2012 from around 9.2% in 2011. Part of the slowdown reflects reduced potential, driven mainly by a labor shortage, and part of the slowdown is cyclical, as China will be faced with a possible Euro zone recession in 2012. We expect GDP growth in 2013, 2014 and 2015 to gradually slow to 8.5%, 8.0% and 7.0-8.0%, respectively. Inflation concerns will likely be greatly allayed, thanks to a weaker global economy and a high comparison base. We expect CPI and PPI inflation to drop to 3.5% and 2.0% in 2012 from 5.5% and 6.2% in 2011, respectively. With this macro backdrop plus the leadership change in 2012-13, the Chinese
government should continue its “loose fiscal, tight money” policy stance, though falling inflation risks could allow Beijing to be slightly more pro-growth by avoiding over-tightening credit supply. Put differently, it’s unlikely for Beijing to make a Uturn on policy stance, in our view, but we do expect some further fine tuning in a changing macro environment. A conservative tone dominates among top politicians during leadership changes, so structural reforms unfortunately will likely take a back seat.

Risks to our soft-landing view
The one-time hot debate on China’s growth prospects (hard vs. soft landing) has been cooling, but it may be only temporarily. This is because most of the overly bearish views on China are based on deep-rooted misunderstandings and occasionally intentional distortions, which cannot be corrected, in our view. Though there are both external and internal risks to our growth forecasts, the major risk to our soft landing call is a much worsened Euro zone sovereign debt crisis. Rather than providing a scenario analysis, we estimate that a one ppt slowdown in Euro zone GDP growth would lead to a 60bp decline in China GDP growth. For China bears, China’s domestic issues such as local government debt, property tightening, private lending issues and capital flight could lead to a hard landing in growth and even a severe economic recession. To be sure, China has to deal with a variety of domestic problems, but in our opinion, the bears either overstate the risks or underestimate China’s ability to handle them.

Growth drivers in 2012
We consider the three growth drivers on the demand side: fixed asset investment (FAI), consumption (proxy by retail sales), and exports. In 2011, nominal growth of FAI, retail sales and exports could be 24.5%, 16.9% and 20.2%, while real growth is around 17.5%, 11.5% and 11.0%, respectively. In 2012, we expect real FAI and retail sales growth will remain around 17.5% and 11.5%, but real growth of exports could slow to 6.5% (implying 10.0% in nominal terms). The 4.5ppt slowdown in real export growth would have a 60bp impact on China’s GDP growth. That’s why we expect GDP growth to slow to 8.6% in 2012 from 9.2% in 2011. Regarding yoy quarterly GDP growth in 2012, the structural slowdown could be compensated by an improved situation in the Euro zone, so we forecast relatively flat quarterly growth in 2012 (8.7%, 8.6%, 8.6% and 8.5% from 1Q12 to 4Q12).

Inflation: Set to moderate
We expect CPI and PPI inflation to drop to 3.5% and 2.0% in 2012 from 5.5% and 6.2% in 2011, respectively, and both inflation readings will likely rebound to above 4.0% toward year-end 2012. As we enter the downturn of the pork price cycle, CPI inflation could surprise on the downside in 2012 (the mirror of the upside surprise in 1H11).

Implications on improved terms of trade: FAI and profit margin
The weakness of the EU/US economies could put a lid on energy/raw material prices, delivering below-trend PPI inflation in 2012. Though China’s export sector will likely suffer from the weak developed economies, China should have improved terms of trade (mainly cheaper prices of energy/raw materials), and low PPI inflation should allow China more room to ramp up FAI to partially offset the slowdown in export growth, in our view. The other implication is that profit margins in China’s downstream manufacturing sector could improve significantly in 2012 on the back of a sharper slowdown in PPI inflation.

Policy: Fine tuning loose fiscal, tight money
The CPI inflation target and GDP growth target could be set at 4% and 8.0% for 2012, respectively, the same as in 2011. Beijing could set a lower growth target, but it seems that Chinese politicians once again wish to use the glorified 8% to deliver confidence to both their own people and the world. The overall policy stance of “proactive fiscal and prudent monetary policy” will likely be maintained in 2012, but the details may be fine tuned due to the changing macro backdrop. Specifically, fiscal policies could be slightly more active, as the ratio of fiscal deficit to GDP could be raised from 1.9% in 2011 to 2.2% in 2012. Monetary policy is complicated, but we expect that liquidity conditions – measured by interbank rates and discount rates for bankers’ acceptances – could be improved thanks to allayed inflation concerns. New bank loans may be set at around RMB7.6tn (versus RMB7.5tn in 2011), which would deliver 13.9% loan growth in 2012. Although 13.9% is slower than possible 15.8% loan growth in 2011, in real terms (adjusted for GDP deflator) loan growth would accelerate from 10.0% in 2011 to 11.0% in 2012. Last but certainly not least, the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) could be cut by 150bp, while policy rates could be asymmetrically hiked (25bp in the one-year deposit rate and 15bp in the one-year lending rate) in 2012.

Shrinking current account surplus and RRR
The combination of weak external demand and robust domestic demand resulted in a smaller trade surplus in 2011 (US$141bn), and the trend will likely strengthen. In 2012, we expect 10.0% export growth, 16.5% import growth and a meager US$41bn in trade surplus. The current account surplus could be halved from US$305bn in 2010 to US$175bn in 2011, and could fall to just US$40bn in 2012. A much narrower current account would have strong policy implications. Pressure on the yuan would be greatly alleviated, allowing Beijing to truly benchmark the yuan to a basket and to deliver two-way volatility of RMB-USD. We expect three RRR cuts in 2012 due mainly to a shrinking current account surplus and some reversal of the previous hot money inflows.

Interest rates: No cut, one asymmetric hike
Though CPI inflation could dip below 3.0% yoy for some months in 2012, in our view there is only a slight chance the PBoC will cut rates. Now, the one-year deposit rate is 3.50% and the one-year lending rate is 6.56%. CPI inflation could rebound to 4% yoy in 4Q12. In addition, cutting rates could confuse markets about the government’s determination to control home prices. And, higher deposit rates benefit less-privileged depositors. In contrast, we believe Beijing is likely to asymmetrically hike rates once in 2H12 (25bp for one-year deposits and 15bp for one-year lending) to compensate depositors while making the hike more politically acceptable (higher lending rates hurt big SOE borrowers). The popular call of a simultaneous rate hike and RRR cut appears reasonable, but in our view RRR cuts could be more frequent than rate hikes.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: BofA Merrill Lynch Research
Publish date: 01/12/11

United States –Outlook 2012 (BoA)

United States –Outlook 2012
Triple dip
The US economy approaches 2012 with considerable momentum. With the oil and Japan shocks fading, GDP growth has picked up from sub-1% at the start of the year to an estimated 3% growth in the current quarter. Enjoy it while it lasts. In many respects, we expect 2012 to play out like 2011, only in reverse:
�� We expect growth to gradually slow as three shocks hit: fiscal tightening, a recession in Europe and a policy uncertainty shock prior to the election.
�� Inflation will likely slow as commodities level off and firms face increasing resistance from cash constrained consumers.
�� The Fed will continue to respond to signs of weakness. In the spring, we expect it to extend the interest rates on hold promise into 2014 and next summer we expect it to start QE3.
�� The risks are primarily to the downside: if the Euro zone crisis spins out of control it will likely push the US economy into a mild recession.

Growth: duelling debt debacles
Despite the recent pick-up in growth, we expect the economy to slow over the course of 2012 (Chart 7). Three things argue for weaker growth.

Fiscal tightening: Fiscal policy is gradually moving from easing to tightening. Spending from the 2009 stimulus plan is steadily fading. The number of workers receiving extended unemployment benefits has already fallen 40% from the March 2010 peak. The payroll tax cut boosted growth in the first half of 2011 and faded in the second half. The good news is that despite this modest policy tightening the economy accelerated over the course of the year. The bad news is that we expect further tightening in 2012. In our view, Republicans are likely to reject all of President Obama’s jobs bill, arguing that the economy needs regulatory reform and permanent tax cuts, not gimmicks. As a result, on top of the ongoing tightening, we expect the payroll tax cut and extended unemployment benefits (roughly $150bn between the two programs) to expire. Extension of the payroll tax cut could add a few tenths of a percent to our first half forecast, but only if it is not “funded” with immediate cuts in other parts of the budget.

Euro flu: Our European team believes a recession in the first half of next year is almost inevitable. Under our baseline forecast, European GDP falls at about a 2% annual rate in the first half of the year and then recovers at a similar pace in the second half. Historically, the US economy has tended to breeze past Euro-centric crises, but as we argue in the global overview, banking and stock market linkages to Europe have grown in recent years.

Policy uncertainty shock: A differentiated aspect of our growth forecast is that we have explicitly incorporated a shock to growth from fiscal policy uncertainty. We expect the economy to slow sharply in the second half of 2012 as businesses and households anticipate three post-election shocks: an across-the-board income tax increase (1 ½% of GDP), across-the-board cuts in discretionary spending (1% of GDP) and another debt ceiling deadline. Keep in mind that two of these potential time bombs are set to go off during a lame duck session of Congress. Even if each of these time bombs is ultimately defused, it will be very hard to be confident about that outcome in advance.

Inflation: It takes two to tango
One of the surprises of 2011 was the rise in core CPI inflation. At the start of the year, we expected inflation to inch lower, from 0.8% yoy in November 2010 to 0.6% by December 2011. Instead, core inflation has accelerated to just over 2%. Despite the pick-up, we expect core and headline inflation to moderate in 2012. To understand why, it is important to understand why inflation picked up in the first place.

As we noted in the Global Overview, by some accounts, the pick-up in inflation is the natural consequence of super expansionary monetary policy. For example, in May 2009, Allan Meltzer warned that, “the enormous increase in bank reserves — caused by the Fed’s purchases of bonds and mortgages — will surely bring on severe inflation if allowed to remain.” Since then the Fed has expanded its balance sheet even further.

We always disagreed with this view and continue to disagree to this day. The monetary transmission mechanism is broken: despite a tripling of high powered money (reserves and cash), banking lending is barely growing and nominal GDP is up just 3.7% over the last 12 months (Chart 2). Easy policy has also had little impact on inflation expectations: both market and survey expectations of inflation remain low. The reserve expansion story is a red herring.

In our view, three factors caused the acceleration in inflation. Two of these factors are fading, while the other persists:
1. Commodity price pass-through has been stronger than expected. Inflation models using data from the last 25 years show very little impact of commodity prices on the core. However, the pass-through this year seems to have increased, with core goods inflation accelerating from -0.3% at the end of last year to 2.1% in the 12 months through October.

2. In a similar vein, overseas pricing pressures have pushed up consumer import price inflation faster than expected. It took almost a decade of dollar weakness to push import price inflation up to 3.4% in 2008; by contrast, just two years of both a weak dollar and rising foreign wages has boosted import inflation to 3.6%.

3. Despite a surplus of housing, a shortage of rental units has created rent pressure.

Looking ahead, we expect a partial reversal of these pressures. On the one hand, rent inflation will likely continue as foreclosures drive people into the rentals. On the other hand, commodity prices have already started to level off and the growth slowdown should take some of the pressure off of global wages. Stepping back, the deeper reason for lower inflation is that households have a budget constraint. With persistently high unemployment, wage growth continues to slow (Chart 9). Moreover, US workers neither expect, nor are likely to get, cost of living increases. Hence rising inflation puts an ever tighter squeeze on living standards. We expect considerable purchasing power pushback in the years ahead.

Policy: Better go down fighting
As we noted above, fiscal policy is tied up in political knots. In our view, an effective policy would couple modest fiscal stimulus in the near term, with credible deficit reduction in the longer term. Neither seems likely, in our view. In the near term, while there is some chance of an extension of the payroll tax cut, Republicans would prefer to do nothing until after the election. In the longer term, the debt ceiling agreement leaves excessive entitlement spending untouched, keeps all of the revenue side of the budget off-limits, and sharply cuts back discretionary spending. We would not be surprised to see a significant portion of the cuts in discretionary spending rescinded after the election. While fiscal policy is tied in knots, the Fed is likely to remain active in the year ahead. In the face of a disappointing recovery the Fed has had two options: give up trying and admit it is out of ammunition, or keep easing using unconventional methods. As expected, Bernanke has consistently chosen the latter. In 2012, we expect the Fed to repeat the same pattern as the prior two years: if growth slows on a sustained basis, as we expect, the Fed will ease further. So in the spring we expect the Fed to extend its “promise” to hold interest rates near zero into 2014. And after Operation Twist ends in June, we expect the Fed to announce another big asset buying program.

In our view, both the markets and many Fed watchers have made two mistakes in judging Fed policy. First, Bernanke and the majority of the Fed have a different view of what constitutes a recovery in the economy. In the market’s mind, the clock started ticking toward rate hikes the day the economy exited from the recession. In reality, as we saw in the last two business cycles, the Fed does not even think about hiking until there is real healing in the economy (Chart 10). In the current context, that means a steady and sustainable drop in the unemployment rate, and some sign that damaged sectors of the economy, such as housing, are getting back on their feet. This suggests that the Fed is no closer to hiking rates today than it was at the start of the recovery.

The second mistake is that the markets seem to be seduced by the views of the hawks on the FOMC. In the past the hawk commentary was sometimes a good leading indicator of rate hikes. Today, however, the hawks and the doves are in two different worlds. For the hawks, quantitative easing is a dangerous mixture of monetary and fiscal policy and should end as soon as possible. By contrast, Bernanke et al embrace QE as a necessary policy when a central bank runs out of conventional policy ammunition. Our advice to investors: ignore the hawks.

Risks: Stale on arrival?
Year-ahead pieces often have very short shelf lives. This year the risk of our Year Ahead report becoming stale quickly is higher than normal. The crisis in Europe is escalating as this goes to press and as such we are being cautious with our view, assuming three scenarios for European GDP growth: good (Europe grows 1% in 2102), bad (mild recession with -0.6% growth) and ugly (major crisis with -2.5% growth). In our view, only the latter scenario pushes the US itself into a recession. Nonetheless, given the crisis in Europe, fiscal follies in the US and the usual array of other risks, we see a 40% probability that the US slips into recession at some point in 2012.

A common question from clients is whether the US (and Europe) are at risk of a “Japan scenario,” with a long period of essentially zero nominal GDP growth. We think such an outcome is possible, but unlikely. In the post-war period, five countries have gone through major banking and real estate crises. In each case, a very weak recovery followed, with real GDP growth averaging 2 to 3% for several years. Deleveraging recoveries are weak and fragile. The extreme case is Japan: nominal GDP has been flat in Japan for two decades, by contrast in the other four instances nominal GDP was up at least 50% 10 years later (Chart 11). 

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: BofA Merrill Lynch Research
Publish date: 01/12/11

您的2012 年投资组合中 值得考虑的12只潜质股

您的2012 年投资组合中 值得考虑的12只潜质股
文: 编辑团队 (译:麦美莹) 2011年12月30日 展望



经济方面,新加坡2012年的预期增长将减慢至1%至3%之间(2011年的增长预测为5%)。 虽然2012年的增长预测较低,但我们认为部分行业在巩固的根基、稳健的前景及在艰难时期能够提供防御之下,在新的一年里,可帮助我们抵挡风风雨雨,拥有更大的潜质。





我们以“建立多元组合来减低投资风险”( )文中的指引为依据,建立了一个多元组合(包括12只股),希望大家在新的一年里,在市场中大获全胜。


稳定 – 吉宝企业 (Keppel Corporation)


吉宝企业(Keppel Corporation)刚好是受惠者之一,它最近从Urca Drilling(Sete Brasil的子公司)获得一份建造半潜式钻台合约,价值8亿零900万美元。这个平台在4Q15交送后,将会是21-超级-深水平台的其中之一,后者将出租给巴西国家石油公司(Petrobas)。

联昌国际研究指出,Petrobas最近宣布取消为租用21艘钻台而进行招标,并将会开始直接与Sete Brasil及 Ocean Rig进行商议。这对吉宝企业是好消息,因为如果与Sete的商议顺利的话,那么它将可以从Sete获得更多的订单。虽然投资者可能担心信贷紧缩的问题,因为这个业务属于资本密集型,但吉宝企业目前的客户主要是钻台承包商,它们的财务比2008年金融危机时期来得强。


增长 – 毅之安 (Ezion Hldgs)


毅之安(Ezion Holdings)最近宣布其第4艘自升自航式修井船(lift boat)已部署在爪哇水域,为印尼客户国家石油与天然气公司(PT Pertamina)维修岸外平台。这不单只是获准在印尼海域操作的第一艘自升自航式修井船,而PT Pertamina还给予毅之安另一份意向书,计划租用公司多一艘自升自航式修井船,年期为5年,合约值约达9,400万美元,并预期在2013年中开始启动。



稳定 – 康福德高企业 (ComfortDelGro Corporation)

一想到稳健的企业,我们自然而然地便会想到陆路交通运输领域,因为在不稳定的时期,它还是会带来经常性的稳健盈利。康福德高企业(ComfortDelGro Corporation)正好具备了这个防御特性,它在2011年的表现比海指来得佳,因此它顺利成章地成为了我们组合中的一员。


就有关最近公司带头调整本地德士公司的车费,康福德高的解释是为帮助其属下的司机应付不断上涨的成本。虽然公司一再强调不会提高德士的租赁收费,但调整车费肯定给予公司更大的空间在未来调高租赁费用。德意志摩根建富(DMG & Partners)指出,假设德士租赁收费在2Q12提高2%,康福德高的FY13盈利将会增加4%。

稳定 – M1

电讯股在2011年的表现与海指相比,十分不错。电讯公司的股价平均上升6%,而海指相对下跌了16%。虽然电讯公司不是全面不受市场波动影响,但它们受到稳定盈利及不错的股息获益率支持。信贷评级机构惠誉(Fitch Ratings)认为本地电讯公司将可以产生稳定的自由现金流,由于它们在2011年的资本开支及支付给股东的数额不高,尽管盈利方面受到一些压力。惠誉也预期电讯公司将会把2012年收入的大约11至14%投资于资本开支来提升数据容量及付费电视业务。


增长 – 全民牙医集团(新加坡)(Q&M Dental Group (Singapore))

全民牙医集团(新加坡)(Q&M Dental Group (Singapore))的稳健股价让我们感到惊讶。它的股价比其0.27元的招股价上涨超过185%,而自2011年1月3日以来,它跳升了54%;海指在同期内则下跌了16%。这让我们注意到公司向中国扩张的大方针。


事实上,全民牙医为在中国扩展业务,已从国际资本投资(International Finance Corporation)取得总共1,500万美元融资。公司计划在未来5年内开设50家诊所及20个实验室,并在合资企业取得合共8,000至9,000万人民币盈利后,便把其在中国的业务上市。公司另一个重要的举动是它在2011年5月提议在台湾证券交易所发行高达5,000万美元的TDR(台湾存托票据)来为其扩展中国业务融资。由于公司拥有稳健的基本面及具体的发展大计,我们当然期待这只股在未来的日子中能节节上升。

增长 – 超级集团(Super Group)

超级集团(Super Group)的优势是除了销售其创立的即溶三合一咖啡外,它所覆盖的产品十分广泛,以至其所覆盖的地域十分广阔,主要是以东南亚为中心,并在后者继续占有颇大的市场份额。虽然3合一咖啡依然是集团的核心产品,为其FY10收入提供75%的贡献,但它所生产的其他方便食品和饮品已经打入品牌消费市场。

除了品牌消费部门持续取得增长外,其食材部门的增长潜质也受到我们的注意,销售跳升119%。兴业银行研究机构(RHB Research Institute)指出,超级集团在2007年开始出售其过剩的食材,并在2007年至2010年期间,以150%的CAGR(年复合增长率)增长。最近,公司添加了两条生产非乳制奶粉(non-dairy creamer)的生产线,让年总产量从7万5,000公吨增加至12万5,000公吨。公司的冷冻干燥(freeze-dry)设施也开始启动,让冷冻干燥即溶咖啡粉的年产量达到1,500公吨。





Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 股市资讯网
Publish date: 30/12/11

曾渊沧博士专栏 30.12.2011

文: 曾渊沧博士 2011年12月30日 曾渊沧博士专栏

















Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 股市资讯网
Publish date: 30/12/11


文: 编辑团队 2011年12月30日 展望

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 股市资讯网
Publish date: 30/12/11


文: 颜子伟 (译:麦美莹) 2011年12月30日 展望



























Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 股市资讯网
Publish date: 30/12/11


文: 彭博社 (译:伍丽芳) 2011年12月30日 展望

印尼宏利资产管理(PT Manulife Asset Management,管理约38亿美元)驻雅加达的股票投资主管Yudhistia Susanto表示,标准普尔(Standard & Poor’s)和穆迪投资者服务公司(Moody’s Investors Service)可能跟随国际评级机构惠誉(Fitch Ratings),把印尼的信用评级提升至投资级别。Susanto青睐银行与水泥股,因利率调低及道路、港口和机场项目的开支提高将令它们受惠,但Susanto没有指明是哪几只股票。


雅加达综合指数(Jakarta Composite Index,JCI)于12月27日闭市时,下跌0.2%至3,789点,与亚洲市场的跌幅相近(市场在12月26日休市)。在印尼央行为了纾缓通货膨胀而将其基准利率调低至新低位,以及惠誉于12月15日提升印尼的信用评级后,JCI在2011年上升了约2.3%(2010年上升46%)。印尼于1997年的亚洲金融危机丧失投资级别评级。



Susanto在9月26日与彭博电视(Bloomberg Television)进行的一个访问中推荐水泥股。自此以后,印尼的两大建材生产商锦石水泥(PT Semen Gresik,PTSG)及PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa的股价上升了至少39%,JCI则上扬14%。



摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)在一篇于12月16日发布的文告中说:“虽然评级上调对印尼而言是重大的里程碑,起着正面作用,但我们认为债券和股票市场的价格已反映了此利好因素。我们预计股票和债券市场的影响不会太大。”

标普于12月20日在一封答复彭博社的问题的电邮中表示,如果印尼政府继续进行改善财政、行政及体制改革,标普可能上调信用评级。新加坡穆迪的助理副主席Christian de Guzman在12月23日于一封电邮说,印尼的宏观经济表现稳健,“为信用加分,有助于令其评级获上调”。印尼经济统筹部长Hatta Rajasa在12月20日于雅加达告诉记者,标普和穆迪可能在2012年第一季把印尼的评级提高至投资级别。



印尼贸易部长吉塔维亚万(Gita Wirjawan)在12月16日于日内瓦所作的一个访问中表示,法案修改意味着印尼将能够在未来的2或3年内把基建开支加倍。设立于东爪哇的PTSG的股价在土地收购法案通过的那一周上升8.4%。PTSG在12月13日表示,它预计其两座新的水泥厂将在2012年开始投入运作,帮助它满足不断增加的需求。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 股市资讯网
Publish date: 30/12/11









  个股方面,因宣布找到投资者发展Big Box而在前天暴涨的TT国际,昨日交易量名列前茅,不过股价闭市时维持在4分的水平没有变。金英证券分析师前日闭市后曾告诉路透社,TT国际的长期展望确实相当不错。


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:07/01/12

















Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:07/01/12

Cosco: Brazilian orders priced in (CIMB)

Cosco Corporation
Current S$0.92
Target S$0.92
 Brazilian orders priced in
Cosco has confirmed a US$220m order for two offshore construction vesselsfrom SapuraCrest. This should have beenpriced in as letters of award had been made known since Sep. Further, we are unmoved by the contract’slow profitability.

No changes to our EPSas the contract fallswithin our FY12 ordertarget of US$1.5bn. We maintain Underperform and TP, based on 1.5x P/BV, 10% above its trough of 1.4x.

What Happened
Upon receipt of down-payment, Cosco has confirmed a US$220m order for two offshore construction vessels from an undisclosed Asian company,which we believe to be SapuraCrest.The vessels are scheduled for delivery in 4Q13 and 1Q14. Recallthat Cosco had received lettersof award in lateSep 11. SapuraCrest then had bagged a trio of pipe-laying vessel construction and charter contractsfrom Petrobras for US$1.4bn. The Technip and Odebrecht consortium was awarded two, while Subsea 7 clinched the remainderofPetrobras’ssix pipelay tender.

What We Think
We hadexpected the order and believe the news is in theprice. In addition, we expect marginsto be low asSapuraCrest was reportedly the most aggressive bidderfor the Petrobrastender. Moreover, Cosco could have bidcompetitively to fill up its shipbuilding orderbook. We project more provisions for project losses in the next 12months asCosco executes more offshore projects. 

What You Should Do
We do not see any light at the end of the tunnel for the beleaguered shipbuilder. Execution remains its main risk,with heightened risks from its expansion into the offshore segment. Order outlook remains foggy, as the shipping sector continues to struggle.

Petrobras pushing for six more pipe-layers?
Following the award of six-pack pipelay vessels in 4Q11, Petrobras is reportedly launching another tender for six more pipe-layers. Submission is expected in early 2012. Petrobras is now seeking flexible pipelay vessels (newbuilds or not) with lighter tonne capacity thanthose contracted in the previous round. Further, the Brazilianoil giant has divided the tender into two packages of three vessels. Most companies in the previous tender have been re-invited to participate.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CIMB-Research,
Publish date:06/01/12
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
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