Saturday, October 29, 2011

Warren Buffett - The Book that Changed My Life

The luckiest day of your life may be the first time that you pick up The Intelligent Investor It gives a bedrock of investment philosophy that really hasn't changed. Benjamin Graham was Warren Buffett's professor, and afterward he went to work for him. It was inspiring to work for him. A friendship developed which lasted until he died. He was a marvelous man. His ideas have had a large influence in the securities industry.

Ben Graham moved out to California in 1956. You could never balance the books with Ben. It seemed like there was nothing you could do for him. He couldn't help but to be smart. He was going to accomplish things intellectually right from the start. He wrote the book in 1933 after everyone had lost their money at during the Great Depression. But he could see ahead into the future.

He wasn't an arrogant person. He helped his students, even though he would never see them again. He was giving them knowledge that would make them great competitors. He would give out ideas that you might never find on your own.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:03/04/11

Jim Rogers on US-China trade war.flv

Oct 2011: US lawmakers are going after China and accusing the country of manipulating currency. A bill recently cleared a hurdle in the Senate to impose tariffs on Chinese imports.

Unrestricted import rules of Chinese goods is one of the main reasons for our job losses, manufacturing and export losses, and job creation losses. On the other hand, getting on the bad side with China is not a good thing considering China owns too much U.S. treasury.


Don't get caught in another recession now or in the future. Take charge of your financial future today. In this economy we cannot afford to not learn to trade in stocks and build wealth or supplement income, depending on how you want to trade. Learn to trade the markets today:

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date: 07/10/11

曾淵滄教路25.10.1: 筍價奪南昌站 新地隨時大賺

筍價奪南昌站 新地隨時大賺


地價樓價 無絕對關係



輯錄自 426期 Book A 【曾淵滄教路】

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 東周刊
Publish date: 25/10/11

港股升唔停 基金淡友焗追貨

【本報訊】基金有錢冇貨瘋狂搶股,港股升勢停不了! 恒 指昨日再飆 622 點( 3.26% ),收報 19688 點,五連捷累升 1705 點,主板成交大增至 939 億元的一個月新高。市場人士稱,昨日買盤主要來自基金大戶,散戶態度仍普遍觀望,集中在牛熊證等衍生工具搵食。
記者:李嘉麟 黃金煒

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date: 28/10/11

Weekend Comment Oct 28: Suntec REIT sells Chijmes, could pare debt

Weekend Comment Oct 28: Suntec REIT sells Chijmes, could pare debt

SUNTEC REIT, which owns Suntec City, Park Mall and a one-third stake in One Raffles Quay and Marina Bay Financial Centre Phase 1, has agreed to sell Chijmes to PRE 8 Investments at a price of $177 million or $2,218 psf on net lettable area (NLA).

The sale price represents a 23.2% premium over the valuation of $143.7 million as at 15 October 2011, and a 3.9% annualised yield on Chijmes’ net property income of $5.2 million for the nine months ended 30 September 2011. The divestment price is also 38.3% above its purchase price of $128 million in Dec 2005.

A premier dining and entertaining establishment located in the heart of downtown Singapore, Chijmes is the award-winning gazetted national monument which is also recognised by Unesco as an Asia Pacific Culture Heritage Conservation Building, which means its GFA (Gross Floor Area) is fixed. As at Sept 30, there are 31 tenants. Major tenants by gross rental include Lei Garden Restaurant, Watabe Singapore and Maracana Group.

Chijmes contributes 3.7% to the trust’s NPI (Net Property Income) and with its NLA of 79,794 sq ft accounts for 2.3% of Suntec REIT’s portfolio. According to Suntec REIT’s announcement, the divestment would impact proforma NAV (Net Asset Value) as at Dec 31 2010, lifting it to $1.80 from $1.783. DPU would fall from 9.859 cents to 9.686 cents.

The rationale for the divestment is to provide Suntec REIT with greater financial flexibility for fund deployment, value enhancement and/or to repay debt. Yeo See Kiat, CEO of Suntec REIT’s manager, says in a statement, “The divestment is in line with Suntec REIT’s proactive approach in reviewing and evaluating asset plans for its portfolio.”

Separately, ARA Asset Management, the manager of Suntec REIT, would also benefit from the divestment through fee income.

On Oct 26, Suntec REIT reported 3QFY11 DPU of 2.533 cents, up 1.2% y-o-y and flat q-o-q, notes OCBC in a recent report. Together with 1H11 DPU of 4.92 cents, DPU totalled 7.453 cents for the first nine months of the year. “This is above both our and consensus forecasts,” OCBC says. “However, office portfolio occupancy was weaker at 98.6%, dragged down mainly by weakness at Suntec City office.”

The retail portfolio occupancy slid slightly from 97.7% in 2Q to 97.3% in the third quarter. In addition, committed average passing rents at Suntec City continued to fall, marking its sixth consecutive quarters of decline since Mar 2010. “Management had previously mentioned that it may be looking at possible asset enhancement initiatives (AEI) at Suntec City,” says OCBC. “However, it has yet to give details on this front. We note that the group’s gearing ratio was at 39.9%,” the report points out. That would leave it with limited resources to undertake AEIs because a major AEI would require a draw-down of more debt. Now, with the divestment, which completes in January, subject to relevant approvals, the REIT will have a cash infusion.

There is no major refinancing requirement till 2013. Still, OCBC voices concern that a fast deteriorating macro condition may exert downward pressure on rents and property capital values, hence resulting in higher-than-desirable gearing level.

In its results statement, Suntec REIT acknowledged that the Singapore property market cooled in the third quarter of 2011 “as sentiment in the real estate market turned cautious against a backdrop of global uncertainties and volatility in the stock markets. The office market slowed down in 3Q 2011 as occupiers deliberated on their expansion plans”. Citing property consultants, the report points out that overall CBD Grade A office rents rose by a marginal 2% q-o-q to $9.08 psf/mth and average CBD Grade A office occupancy rate dipped by 0.9% to 92.6% in 3Q 2011 due to a spike in the available office stock arising from the newly completed buildings and shadow office space.

OCBC has a hold rating on Suntec REIT. At the closing price of $1.275 and an annualised yield of 9.9 cents, the REIT is trading at a yield of 7.8%.

According to Citigroup strategist Markus Rosgen in his report dated Oct 28, total net inflows for the week of Oct 22-27 came in at US$1 billion ($1.2 billion), or 0.16% of AUM, for emerging markets as a whole, and slightly higher than the previous week. By region, Asia ex-Japan funds remained the relative winner, Rosgen says, with negligible outflows of US$185 million (–0.1% AUM). The inflows into emerging markets equity funds were attributed to ETF buying. Actively managed non-ETF funds continued to suffer net selling pressure, Rosgen says.

Publish date: 28/10/11

Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: cnbc
Publish date: 29/10/11

PhillipCapital Market Watch 28102011 (Weekly Market Commentary)

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube / phillipcapital
Publish date: 28/10/11

Mapletree Commercial Trust: Awaiting Vivocity contributions (CIMB)

Mapletree Commercial Trust
Current S$0.86
Target S$0.94

Awaiting Vivocity contributions
No surprises from 2Qas we await contributions from Vivocity after lease renewals and the completion of AEI at ARC.Almost all its leases due in FY12 have been renewed with good rental reversions. The trend shouldcontinueinto FY13.

2Q12/1H12 DPU is broadly in line with our estimates and consensus, forming 25%/51% of FY11. We fine-tuned our numbers but keep our DDM-based target price (discount rate: 8.6%). Maintain Outperform.

Vivocity’s new lease of life
As its largest asset, an under-rented Vivocity should provide strong impetus for future growth. YTD, management has renewed almost all the retail leases due in FY12 at good rental reversions of 20%. Contributions should flow in after the refurbishment of some units. As the mall is substantially under-rented (estimated passing rents of S$10.10 psf vs. peers’ S$11-14), rental reversions should remain positive next year, particularly with footfall and retail sales expected to benefit from the opening of the MRT Circle Line extension.

More to look forward to
The completion of Alexandra Retail Centre (ARC) should provide another leg up. Over 50% of ARC (by NLA) has been pre-committed, up from over 33% last quarter. Construction is more than 90% completed and ARC is on schedule to open by Dec 11. Rather than going for a soft launch, management is looking at the progressive opening of its outlets. Rental step-up provisions in MLHF’s master lease (10-12%) should provide further uplift by Dec 11.

Mapletree Business City not due for injection yet
Still seeing growth potential from its existing portfolio, management is not looking at an injection of Mapletree Business City in the next six months. This puts to rest any concerns about near-term cash calls for the injection, given asset leverage of 38.5%. Pre-commitments have since climbed to 84-5% with asking rents still fairly stable.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CIMB-Research
Publish date: 28/10/11

Cache Logistics Trust: Steady quarter (CIMB)

Cache Logistics Trust
Current S$1.00
Target S$1.15

Steady quarter
3Q was steady with no major surprises. Offering one of the most attractive and resilient yields in our universe, we continue to like Cache for its earnings stability, low gearing and acquisition pipeline from its sponsor, CWT.

3Q11/9M11 DPU matches our estimates and consensus, at 26%/76% of FY11. We keep our numbers and DDM-based target price (discount rate: 8.6%). Maintain Outperform for its portfolio and yield resilience.

Boost from acquisitions
Cache’s portfolio should continue to benefit from rental step-ups and acquisitions. 3Q11 distributable profit grew 9% yoy on 11% NPI growth, backed by its recent acquisitions and in-built rental step-ups.

Costs of funding nudged lower
Costs of funding could drift down with the drawdown of cheap debt for acquisitions. All-in financing costs went down to 3.8% (2Q: 3.9%) after the issuance of an unsecured S$35m 3.5% 5-year MTN to fund its recent acquisitions.

Uplift from accretive acquisitions
We continue to expect accretion from debt-funded acquisitions. Cache still has ROFR to 2.3m sf of warehouses from its sponsor and assets from third parties. We factor in S$100m and S$150m of acquisitions for FY11-12. Cache has met more than 60% of our FY11 acquisition forecast so far.

Of resilience and growth
Resilience remains a key draw for Cache with its portfolio 100% occupied, including multi-tenanted premises. Substantially leased on long-term triple net leases (WALE: 4.9 years) with annual rental escalation, its portfolio provides growth potential even in an economic slowdown. Given this resilience, balance-sheet strength and potential upside from debt-funded acquisitions, we find forward yields of 8% attractive

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CIMB-Research
Publish date: 28/10/11

扩大纾困基金仅在拖时间 三大师看衰欧盟决议

扩大纾困基金仅在拖时间 三大师看衰欧盟决议
Created 10/29/2011 - 17:13

















Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 南洋商报
Publish date: 29/10/11


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報/投資致富‧產業焦點
Publish date: 28/10/11


曹仁超:谁绑架了金股楼价 2011-10-25 03:42
来源: 21世纪经济报道


  在通货膨胀压力下buy and hold投资策略(即买入后长期持有)早已不管用,取而代之的是何时买卖、买卖什么及何处投资。

  40年的投资经验告诉本人:发达无秘方(There is no magic formula for getting rich)!成功的投资来自准确的前景展望,而准确的前景展望来自资料收集及分析。作为分析员只能提供意见但无法预知未来。





  1997年后的投资由于风险大增,需要的是绝对回报(absolute returns), 例如利用股票期权或恒指期货建立long/short投资组合。以下是1997年7月后的投资策略:




  1.Take risks when you are young:年轻人不应过分逃避风险,冒险是必须的;

  2.Be a contrarian bargain hunter:例如去年11月人人看好时看淡、今年9月人人看淡时看好;

  3. Don't compromise on quality:买优质股,不要买低质股;

  4. Control that urge to panic:不要受恐慌情绪影响投资决定;

  5. Set reasonable expectation:追求合理利润。








  从成立到1946年国有化前,英国通胀率从来未超过30%,因为人民受不了。美国于1912 年成立联储局,当年的目的是为美国联邦政府支付外债。明年是联储局成立100年,过去100年美国通胀率从未超过20%。换言之,英美国家经常面对通胀但从末出现过恶性通胀(hyperinflation),只有德国、奥地利、匈牙利、日本因战败而出现过恶性通胀。中国内地在1947-1948年由于内战出现了恶性通胀,拉丁美洲国家如阿根廷、巴西在1980年代亦曾出现恶性通胀。



  通货膨胀不是影响股票、房地产及黄金起跌的最大因素。货币购买力平均每年只失去3%至4%,错误的投资决定损失往往很大。过去45年通货膨胀对投资界所带来的影响是人人相信货币已失去作为储存价值的作用,导致资金不断在股市、楼市、金市间流窜,不断产生资产泡沫。例如1997年8月至今的恒生指数过去14 年的滔天巨浪,香港楼价由1997年12000港元/平方英尺到2003年的4200港元/平方英尺再重返11000港元/平方英尺过去14年楼价的升降所引发的财富转移及民怨十分大。至于黄金,从1980年的850美元一盎司跌至1999年的252美元,再上升到今年的1920美元,亦产生了巨大的利损得失。

  资产泡沫愈接近爆破期,上升速度愈快,例如2007年8月至10月的恒指。资产泡沫爆破后情况又十分恐怖,例如2008 年10月。在通货膨胀压力下buy and hold 投资策略,即买入后长期持有早已不管用,取而代之的是何时买卖、买卖什么及何处投资, 即when、what、where。Stock picking(选股)成为游戏新规则,例如今年的公用股、赌场股、消费股皆跑赢银行股、地产股、航运股。在负利率环境下,金价升完可以再升,直到负利率环境改变为止。




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 财经_MSN中国
Publish date: 25/10/11

Soros 7-point plan to save eurozone

Soros 7-point plan to save eurozone
Written by George Soros
Wednesday, 26 October 2011 20:20

1) Member states of the eurozone agree on the need for a new treaty creating a common treasury in due course. They appeal to European Central Bank to co-operate with the European financial stability facility in dealing with the financial crisis in the interim – the ECB to provide liquidity; the EFSF to accept the solvency risks.

2) Accordingly, the EFSF takes over the Greek bonds held by the ECB and the International Monetary Fund. This will re-establish co-operation between the ECB and eurozone governments and allow a meaningful voluntary reduction in the Greek debt with EFSF participation.

3) The EFSF is then used to guarantee the banking system, not government bonds. Recapitalisation is postponed but it will still be on a national basis when it occurs. This is in accordance with the German position and more helpful to France than immediate recapitalisation.

4) In return for the guarantee big banks agree to take instructions from the ECB acting on behalf of governments. Those who refuse are denied access to the discount window of the ECB.

5) The ECB instructs banks to maintain credit lines and loan portfolios while installing inspectors to control risks banks take for their own account. This removes one of the main sources of the current credit crunch and reassures financial markets.

6) To deal with the other major problem – the inability of some governments to borrow at reasonable interest rates – the ECB lowers the discount rate, encourages these governments to issue treasury bills and encourages the banks to keep their liquidity in the form of these bills instead of deposits at the ECB. Any ECB purchases are sterilised by the ECB issuing its own bills. The solvency risk is guaranteed by the EFSF. The ECB stops open market purchases. All this enables countries such as Italy to borrow short-term at very low cost while the ECB is not lending to the governments and not printing money. The creditor countries can indirectly impose discipline on Italy by controlling how much Rome can borrow in this way.

7) Markets will be impressed by the fact that the authorities are united and have sufficient funds at their disposal. Soon Italy will be able to borrow in the market at reasonable rates. Banks can be recapitalised and the eurozone member states can agree on a common fiscal policy in a calmer atmosphere

Publish date: 26/10/11

Armstrong: Thailand’s floods sink chances of earnings recovery (UOB)

Armstrong Industrial Corporation
Price/Target S$0.23/S$0.165
Thailand’s floods sink chances of earnings recovery

Armstrong is a foam and rubber component manufacturer for the automobile, data storage and consumer electronics industries. Armstrong’s manufacturing capabilities include precision die-cut, rubber moulding, vacuum forming & heat press moulding, and expanded polypropylene (EPP) moulding components required for the assembly of diverse end-products of OEMs

What’s New
• Armstrong has temporarily shut down two of its manufacturing facilities in Thailand due to severe floods at Ayutthaya. The other two factories in Prachinburi and Samutprakarn are not affected but precautionary measures have already been implemented there.

• Management is unable to assess the actual financial impact as it depends very much on the physical damage and the duration of the downtime. However, any damages should be sufficiently covered by insurance.

Stock Impact
• Armstrong’s Thailand operations are mainly in the HDD segment and contribute 25% to the top-line. With two out of its four factories out of production, we estimate its net profit is likely to slide another 5.5% for 2011.

• According to Western Digital, the floods in Thailand will significantly impact its operations and its ability to meet customer demand in 4Q11. The company has suspended operations as water had submerged part of its manufacturing sites. Seagate had also announced it may have difficulties making hard disc drives due to parts shortage. Currently, 60% of Armstrong’s HDD sales go to Seagate and another 39% to Western Digital.

Earnings Revision
• We cut our revenue and net profit forecasts for 2011 to S$199.4m and S$9.1m respectively due to the aftermath effects on the electronics supply chain disruption. We also trim our dividend estimate to 1.0 cent/share, or a payout of 55%.

• The group’s operations had been impacted twice by natural disasters this year, first the Japan’ earthquake and tsunami and now Thailand’s floods. We think chances of any earnings recovery due to a snapback in production from the first disaster are highly unlikely now.

• Maintain SELL with a lower target price of S$0.165, based on 5-year historical average PE of 9.0x on our reduced 2011F EPS of 1.8 cents. With the headwinds in the sector, we recommend staying out until the outlook becomes clearer.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts:UOB Kay Hian Research
Publish date: 28/10/11

MIT: Robust 2Q (CIMB)

Mapletree Industrial Trust
Current S$1.14
Target S$1.24
Robust 2Q

2Q12 marked the first quarter since the expiry of rental caps on MINT’s flatted factories. Positives were sustained occupancy and stronger rental reversions. Leasing and organic-growth potential remains strong given an under-rented portfolio.

2Q12/1H12 DPU is in line with consensus and our estimates, at 26%/ 51% of FY11. We trim interest costs but keep our DDM-based target price (discount rate: 8.6%). Maintain Outperform.

Stronger rental reversions
We continue to see strong organic growth potential from an under-rented portfolio. Positives were stronger rental reversions in 2Q from the expiry of rental caps at end-Jun. While portfolio retention fell to 79% from 89% in 1Q, this was largely in keeping with management’s expectation, given its push on rents after the expiry of rental caps. Portfolio occupancy also crept up to 94.5% from 94.3%.

Continued resilience expected
Leasing enquiries remain strong while arrears (deemed typically a sign of distress among tenants) are still healthy. While there has been a slowdown in enquiries from the electronics sector given weakness in the sector, this slowdown is not new. Stronger demand from biomed and precision engineering etc. also compensates. To enhance its portfolio resilience and visibility, management is looking at introducing packages with longer lease tenures and rental step-ups.

Asset leverage within comfort zone
DPU should continue to benefit from low all-in funding costs of 2.2%. While asset leverage is fairly high at 39%, this is within management’s comfort level of 45% (given stability of its portfolio) with FY12 maturing debt well-supported by existing lines of credit.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: CIMB-Research
Publish date: 27/10/11

金石财经2011-10-27 欧盟达成希债减值协议 暂时避免危机扩大

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date: 27/10/11


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Youtube
Publish date: 24/10/11

Friday, October 28, 2011

'No turning point in crisis yet, market bottom not in sight yet'

Written by Sani Hamid, Director, Wealth Management (Economy & Market Strategy), Financial Alliance
Friday, 28 October 2011 07:02

Q. Is there any genuine reason to believe that the European financial sector recapitalisation efforts will signal the turning point in the crisis as markets hope?

Financial Alliance (FA) : We do not believe so. In the 2008 crisis, the U.S. authorities introduced a host of measures, including the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), which gave markets temporary relief but failed to stem the general downtrend. In our view, things will remain very much the same as markets may rally in anticipation of such measures, only to fizzle out post-announcement with the sideways/down trend to resume thereafter.

In fact, volume has been thin in the recent upswing in markets, which is typical of a market correcting higher without conviction. The real point to note is that the primary downtrend has not changed. Investors need to realise that there is a primary trend and a secondary trend. The latter is always influenced by short-term factors such as the recapitalisation news and can therefore swing either side.

For example, in the second half of September it was going down and in the first half of October it went up. However the more important primary trend remains south bound.

However, don’t get us wrong. Europe’s latest financial sector recapitalisation plan (the European Financial Stability Facility or “EFSF”) is an essential part in helping to rebuild market confidence. But as the TARP episode in the U.S. and experiences in other crises have shown us, market bottoms are not normally found at the time such measures are introduced. Instead, markets will continue to trend lower until a time a confluence of factors come into place to create a bottom.

Q. Can you explain why you feel the primary trend is still pointing down at the moment?

FA: Well, we believe that there is a slowdown in the world economy which is presently being severely underestimated. We believe that even if you took away the debt problems in the U.S. and Europe tomorrow, we’d still be faced with a serious global slowdown – that’s why the primary trend is still down. This slowdown will likely cause a re-rating of earnings growth and weigh down sentiments in the months ahead.

Many will ask “Hasn’t the market discounted this slowdown?” The answer is no. If there is one thing we are very certain about, it is the fact that there will be more reductions in growth forecasts in the future. This, we believe, has not been discounted by equity markets. We have not seen the last of downward revisions in growth because it is very difficult to forecast just how slowly the world will grow. There are 3 reasons for this:

1. The problems in Europe and the U.S. are ongoing. In other words, these are dynamic and not static. And as they continue, sentiment and the global growth outlook will deteriorate further. These problems cannot be easily solved. And politically, we believe the space for politicians to maneuver is getting tighter. For example, even among France and Germany, there is a split on the rescue plan for Europe; in the U.S., President Obama’s jobs bill is facing resistance; large scale street demonstrations are threatening the Greek government, etc.

2. It is extremely difficult to put one’s finger on just how slow global growth will be given it is a synchronised slowdown across all major economies in the world. Based on the set of Leading Economic Indicators published by the OECD, at least 90% of the global economy (the aggregate nominal GDP of the 13 countries tracked by the OECD LEI) will be in a slowdown in the coming 2 quarters. With so many countries slowing down at the same time, it will not be surprising if the feed-back loop causes many economists and analysts to underestimate the extent of the present slowdown.

3. The policy options are increasingly limited. The roles of both governments and central banks are being limited by the huge fiscal debts and already ultra loose monetary policies respectively. In the past, economies could depend on fiscal pump priming or a monetary jolt from lower interest rates to revive consumption. That is not the case today. Governments who pursue the path of printing more money are likely to be pushed by the markets while central banks have been rendered impotent and have to resort to unconventional means (e.g. Operation Twist by the Federal Reserve).

Q. Can you update us on what the latest Leading Economic Indicators are saying?

FA: In the latest press release dated October 10 for its August Economic Leading Indicators, the OECD said “Composite leading indicators (CLIs) for August 2011 continue to point to a slowdown in economic activity in most OECD countries and major non-member economies. The CLI for the OECD area fell 0.5 point in August, the fifth consecutive monthly decline”.

On top of that, other institutes, such as the Economic Cycle Research Institute, now believe that a U.S. recession is a likely event. Closer to home, the latest advance estimate shows that Singapore avoided a technical recession in Q3 but in reality it would have been one if not for the volatile pharmaceutical sector. The MAS has also softened its stance on the strength of the Singapore dollar in view of the global economic situation.

Nonetheless, monthly economic data have yet to fully reflect this slowdown, causing equity markets to cheer some of these positive numbers as the prognosis is that the world is holding up despite all. But in 2012, we believe almost all economic data will be pointing south as the slowdown permeates across all sectors. Also the high base in the first half of 2011 will not help data that are not seasonally adjusted.

Q. You mentioned a “confluence of factors” have to come into place to set a market bottom. What are these?
FA: This refers to the experience from the 2008 crisis when equity markets were oblivious to signs from the credit markets, the economy and other factors. These “non-equity market” factors had suggested that the overall situation was deteriorating rapidly in mid-2008 and conversely, that the situation was improving in early 2009. Today, we feel that equity markets continue to be overly optimistic when compared to the credit market and the economic outlook (which we discussed earlier).

Sooner or later, the former will adjust its expectations to align with the latter two. Sentiment, which we term as fairly bullish presently judging from the sharp rebounds in equity markets on every piece of good news, also suggests we are still in the upper half of the cycle of emotions (see diagram on the right).

Focusing on the credit markets, which we have also touched on in previous reports, there are still signs of stress there. Corporations are delaying their bond issues either because of unattractive borrowing rates or the lack of interest altogether while there remain signs of stress in Europe.

Many banks, for example, park their money with the European Central Bank (ECB) because of the lack of confidence in placing such funds with other counterparties under the present circumstances. Separately, there are some banks who borrow from the ECB, which is a sign that these banks cannot get funding from other banks which fear a systemic risk. As we have learnt from the 2008 crisis, stress in the credit market cannot be ignored. Similarly, improvements in this market could foretell a recovery in equity markets. Note though that we do not expect the situation to mirror 2008.

Q. Have you made any changes to your view since the last report?

FA: No. Our overall view remains that markets are in a transitional phase now as it moves from a bullish to a sideways/bearish market. We believe that markets are still in the first half of the full potential decline i.e. as market comes to terms with the economic reality and more occasional shocks, we will see more downside. At this point it is hard to put our finger on where we should start going back into the equity market but maybe at 15-20% lower from present levels over 3-6 months from now. As such, at present, we continue to adopt a capital preservation attitude.

While our allocations remain the same, we have however made some changes to our holdings. This comes in the form of a recommendation to switch our bond holdings from short-duration funds to a cash-like fund. This is because, in recent weeks, short-duration funds have suffered a rare decline. Although it is small at 2-4% compared to what we have seen in equity markets, it is still unnerving given that such funds have traditionally held up their values very well.

Separately, there has been a sharp rebound in the U.S. dollar and a corresponding fall in regional currencies. We believe this is temporary in nature and do not see the U.S. dollar on a permanent uptrend. The U.S. dollar gained recently as a result of the movement of funds out of Emerging Markets back to it as a perceived safe haven. This reversal of funds out of Emerging Markets is also a temporary phenomenon as markets shift from a bullish global outlook to a bearish one.

On a positive note, the weakness in regional currencies, coupled with the decline in prices of shares in commodities-related companies and some Emerging Markets countries which are net exporters of commodities, like Brazil, Russia & Indonesia, set-up a compelling environment to pick up such exposure. It now boils down as to when to pull the trigger to go back into these markets. We believe this will be when it is the darkest (bearish) in the market - and we haven’t reached that point yet.

Sani Hamid currently holds the position of Director (Economy & Market Strategy) in Financial Alliance. He has more than 17 years of working experience in the financial markets, having worked for companies such as S&P MMS where he led a team of analysts covering Emerging Asian economies; BNP Paribas Peregrine as a senior economist; and S&P Ratings as a sovereign analyst overseeing the ratings of countries such as Indonesia, India, Malaysia and Singapore. He has been widely quoted in the media throughout his career and has spoken at numerous international seminars on a range of topics. He holds a Masters in Social Science in Applied Economics from the National University of Singapore and is a Certified Financial Planner (CFP). He also has a Certificate in Islamic Banking & Finance from the International Islamic University of Malaysia.

Publish date:28/10/11

Suntec: Better-than-expected 3Q but underlying trends deteriorating (DB)

Suntec REIT
Price at 25 Oct 2011 (SGD) 1.20
Price target - 12mth (SGD) 1.21
52-week range (SGD) 1.63 - 1.06
Better-than-expected 3Q but underlying trends deteriorating

Results ahead; weakening trends
While revenue and NPI were in line, 3Q DPU surpassed expectations, mainly due to lower interest costs. But underlying trends show signs of weakening, with lower office signing rents and continued pressure on retail operations. Other concerns include potential income volatility from Suntec Singapore, heavy income support structures and relatively low asset yields. We maintain Hold on undemanding valuations with the stock at 0.67x P/B and 7.5% FY12e yield.

3Q DPU of 2.53cts (+1.2% YoY, flat QoQ); 9M DPU of 7.45cts (-1.2% YoY)
DPU surpassed management’s forecast by 18% on lower financing costs and higher contributions from MBFC. 3Q revenue rose 7% YoY mainly on Suntec SG, excluding which it would have declined 4.4% (slightly short of management forecast). NPI fell 6% YoY, reflecting negative office and retail rental reversions. Suntec City Office occupancy declined from 99.5% to 98%, with leases secured at an average rent of S$8.41psf (2Q: S$9.28psf). No change to the subdued trading performance of Suntec City Mall, as occupancy declined from 97.1% to 96.5% and average rents slid from S$10.16 to S$10.10psf. Aggregate leverage increased to 41.8% – the historical higher end – after the Suntec SG acquisition

Office market risk mitigated by active forward leasing; AEI yet to be unveiled
Almost all office leases expiring this year have been renewed, with the percentage of leases expiring in FY12 reduced from 18.6% to 12.7% after forward renewals of >175,000sf (mainly occupied by UBS, we believe). There is downside risk to FY12 earnings from the large expiries in Suntec City Mall (32% of NLA). Management previously flagged plans to undertake an AEI program for the mall (potentially involving Suntec SG) but details have yet to be disclosed. Depending on the scale, this could further raise leverage, although loan drawdown should be progressive

Maintaining Hold with DDM-pegged target price of S$1.21; risks
We value Suntec using a ten-year, two-stage DDM. We believe weakening underlying trends are fairly reflected by undemanding valuations, with the stock trading at 0.67x P/B and yielding 7.5% on FY12e, implying a 573bps spread over the 10-year bond. Upside risks: better-than-expected improvement in retail operations, retail sales acceleration, lower-than-expected financing costs. Downside risks: a slowdown in growth affecting leasing demand, interest rate risk, capital-raising risk and deterioration in credit markets

Valuations and risks
We value Suntec using a ten-year, two-stage DDM with cost of equity of 7.5%, reflecting a risk-free rate of 2.5%, equity risk premium of 4.5% and beta of 1.1x. The terminal period assumes 1% growth but at a lower 90% payout ratio to account for longer-term capital expenditure. Our target price is pegged to parity to DDM.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Deutsche Bank AG
Publish date: 26/10/11

Suntec: Lower interest costs offset weaker (older) office and disappointing retail rents (CS)

Suntec REIT
Price (25 Oct 11 , S$) 1.21
TP (prev. TP S$) 1.10 (1.06)
9M11 operationally in line: Lower interest costs offset weaker (older) office and disappointing retail rents
● Suntec’s 9M11 NPI of S$141 mn was in-line, at 75% of our FY11E, but DPU of S¢7.45 beat expectations at 83% of ours and 79% of street’s FY11E due to the lower-than-expected interest expense and better contribution from MBFC.

● Suntec Mall’s occupancy fell a further 0.5 p.p. to 96.5% in 3Q11. Suntec office occupancy fell 1.5 p.p., in-line with what we highlighted in our 6 October report that occupancy and rents at the older offices could likely come under pressure first, if leasing demand slows, given the oversupply concerns as well.

● In line with expectations, rents at Suntec City Mall continue to fall for the sixth straight quarter, and we believe that further competition from neighbouring malls could put downward pressure on rents and occupancy. Management may be looking at potential AEIs.

● We have tweaked our interest costs assumptions, and raised our DPU by 5–6% for FY11–13E. Our new target price is S$1.10. We maintain our UNDERPERFORM rating, as we believe Suntec’s 7.3% yield prices in potential headwinds from continuing disappointment in retail and potential vacancy risk at its older offices

9M11 operationally in-line
Suntec’s 9M11 NPI of S$141.4 mn (-3.1% YoY) was in line with expectations at 75% of our FY11E. However, 9M11 DPU of S¢7.45 DPU (+0.7% YoY) beat expectations at 83% of ours and 79% of street’s FY11E due to lower-than-expected interest expense and better contribution from MBFC.

Retail and (older) office occupancy declined, as expected
Office portfolio occupancy fell 0.5 p.p. due to the 1.5 p.p. drop in Suntec Office occupancies to 98.6%. This is in line with expectations, as we highlighted earlier in our 6 October report “Sentiment vs. Fundamentals: Stick to quality” that occupancy and rents at the older offices could likely come under pressure first, if leasing demand slows, as the current Grade A rents are still fairly low, coupled with potential oversupply concerns in the Grade B space. Meanwhile, retail occupancy at Suntec Mall fell a further 0.5 p.p. as expected.

Suntec Mall rents fall for the sixth consecutive quarter
In line with expectations, passing rents at Suntec City Mall continue to decline, falling for the sixth consecutive quarter. We believe that competition from neighbouring malls could likely put further downward pressure on near-term rents and occupancy (which has fallen two straight quarters). We believe management may be looking to improve things at the mall.

Older office and retail portfolio likely to stay weak
We have tweaked our interest cost assumptions downwards to reflect the lower-than-expected all-in cost of financing and adjusted our FY11–13E DPU up by 5–6%. Our revised target price for Suntec is S$1.10, 9% downside. Maintain UNDERPERFORM. While Suntec trades at a relatively attractive 7.3% FY12E dividend yield, we believe this prices in potential near-term headwinds from: (1) continuing disappointments of retail assets as competition weighs on rental and occupancy outlook; and (2) potential vacancy risks for its older offices.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Credit Suisse
Publish date: 25/10/11

Suntec: Wear and tear across its older assets (Goldman)

Suntec REIT
Price (S$) 1.21
12 month price target (S$) 1.02
In line with expectations: Wear and tear across its older assets

What surprised us
Suntec reported distributions of S$56.4mn in 3Q11 (+0.3% qoq, +21.9% yoy) and S$165.4mn ytd, broadly in line with GSe (77% of FY11E); we expect 4Q to be weaker. Net property income disappointed, only 73% of GSe, offset by higher associate income and lower financing cost.

Highlights: (1) Retail decline was alarming (29% of assets), in our view, with Suntec City Mall’s passing rents down 6 straight quarters to S$10.10psf currently; we estimate negative rental reversions was about 9% ytd, contrasting CMT central malls’ delivery of 5%-8% positive rental reversions; (2) Office portfolio showing initial signs of weakness; occupancy declined modestly, 98.6% from 99.2% in 2Q; but we are concerned with the wide swing in renewal rents at Grade B asset Suntec City Office, having secured leases at S$8.41psfpm in 3Q, -9% qoq vs. +1% qoq in 2Q, the first decline since 2Q10; Grade A office ORQ (associate) fared no better with income down 4% qoq; MBFC was the one bright spot in 3Q, as income rose +10.2% qoq; and (3) Aggregate leverage rose to 41.8% vs. 40.5% in 2Q, with all in financing cost at 2.82%.

What to do with the stock
Pressures continue to mount: (1) fading trends at Suntec City Mall continue unabated; and (2) clear signs of vulnerability across its Grade B office assets, while Grade A asset ORQ (purchased in 2007), is likely to yield less than the 4.2% yield on cost guidance when income support wears off in 1Q2012. While stock finds some support from a dividend yield of 8.0%/7.6% in FY11E/12E, we estimate about 1.0-1.5% is derived from income support and see downside risk when income support wears off. We think investors could increasingly focus on its leveraged balance sheet, 42%, the highest in our SREIT coverage. Maintain Sell (on CL) with 12-m DCF-based TP of S$1.02. Upside risks: Stronger macro environment.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Goldman Sachs
Publish date:25/10/11

「信號導航」- 短線市寬升至年來高位非常超買-- 2011年10月28日


Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date: 28/10/11

Suntec Reit sells Chijmes for $177m to Pua-linked entity

Business Times - 28 Oct 2011

Suntec Reit sells Chijmes for $177m to Pua-linked entity

OSIM's Sim holds stake in the entity; Pua, Sim also linked to a nearby project


SUNTEC Real Estate Investment Trust (Suntec Reit) is selling Chijmes for $177 million to an entity whose shareholders include Pua Seck Guan's Perennial Real Estate group and OSIM boss Ron Sim.

Mr Pua and Mr Sim are also joint majority shareholders (40 per cent stake) in the nearby Capitol project, which will have retail/theatre, hotel and residential components.

According to a Perennial spokesperson, this acquisition provides good synergistic opportunities between the Chijmes and Capitol sites.

'We like this site because it's a good opportunity to own an iconic heritage landmark commercial site, and it's very rare to get an opportunity to invest in such a large commercial site right in the downtown core of Singapore CBD (central business district), with a low plot ratio of 0.8,' said the Perennial spokesperson.

HSBC Institutional Trust Services (Singapore), as trustee of Suntec Reit, entered into a property sale agreement with PRE 8 Investments Pte Ltd for the 154,062 sq ft plot located along Victoria Street.

With a gross floor area of 127,793 sq ft, the $177 million price tag translates into about $1,385 psf ppr (per sq ft per plot ratio). The area was valued at $143.7 million by DTZ Debenham Tie Leung (SEA) as at Oct 15, placing the divestment at 23.2 per cent above the valuation.

Suntec Reit is expected to recognise an estimated gain of about $39.5 million following the divestment.

The sale of Chijmes follows an expressions of interest exercise conducted by Colliers International.

According to Suntec Reit's results for the third quarter ended Sept 30, the property posted revenue of $2.7 million and net property income of $1.8 million during the quarter.

Going forward, PRE 8 Investments intends to spend some $40 million to rejuvenate the asset.

'In terms of efficiency of the asset, it will be enhanced; the tenancy mix will be reviewed and optimised; and in terms of ambience, a lot can be done to improve and blend it with the precinct. Over time, we hope to enhance the rental revenue from this asset.'

Chijmes has 79,794 sq ft of net lettable area and includes several conservation buildings and two gazetted national monuments - Chijmes Hall (the former CHIJ Chapel) and Caldwell House.

Chijmes is on a site with a remaining lease of about 79 years. It has 97 car park lots and is located opposite Raffles City and the City Hall MRT Station. Tenants include Lei Garden Restaurant and Harry's Bar.

The completion of the divestment is expected to be sometime in January 2012.

Publish date: 28/10/11

Parkson Retail Asia launches IPO

Business Times - 28 Oct 2011

Parkson Retail Asia launches IPO

IPO consists of 80m new and 67m vendor shares at 94 cents apiece


DEPARTMENT store operator Parkson Retail Asia yesterday launched its initial public offering (IPO) of 147 million shares at 94 cents each for a Singapore Exchange (SGX) mainboard listing.

The $138 million IPO consists of 80 million new shares and 67 million vendor shares offered by its shareholders, East Crest International Limited and PT Mitra Samaya. The new shares represent about 11.8 per cent of Parkson's enlarged issued share capital of 677.3 million shares after the IPO.

The IPO shares comprise an international placement of 136.15 million shares to investors including institutional and other investors in Singapore, and a public offer tranche of 10.85 million shares in Singapore.

'Parkson has established itself as a retail player in high-growth economies in South-east Asia. The proposed listing on the SGX-ST will provide a platform for us to expand our operations further and leverage on the growing retail demand in Asia,' said Alfred Cheng, group managing director and executive director of Parkson.

Since its inception in 1987, the South-east Asia-based department store operator has built a network of some 50 stores spanning Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Of the expected net proceeds of about $69.2 million from the new shares, Parkson intends to use about $60 million to open new stores in Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and Cambodia; about $5.0 million for information technology investment; and approximately $4.2 million for part of its maintenance capital expenditure in Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia.

Parkson's revenue grew from $301 million in FY 2009 to $367 million in FY 2011, with profit attributable to owners rising from $11 million in FY 2009 to $35 million in FY 2011.

Parkson's IPO will close at noon on Nov 1. Trading of the shares is expected to start at 9am on Nov 3.

HSBC Singapore is the sole global coordinator and issue manager for the offering. The joint bookrunners and underwriters are HSBC Singapore and CIMB Securities (Singapore).

The public offer coordinator for the offering is CIMB Securities (Singapore), and the co-lead manager is CLSA Singapore.

Publish date: 28/10/11

Cache Logistics' Q3 DPU up 8% at 2.095 cents

Business Times - 28 Oct 2011

Cache Logistics' Q3 DPU up 8% at 2.095 cents


CACHE Logistics Trust has achieved a third-quarter distribution per unit (DPU) of 2.095 cents, up 8 per cent from 1.94 cents a year ago.

This translates to an annualised DPU of 8.312 cents, which implies a yield of 8.3 per cent based on yesterday's closing price of $1.00.

Distributable income for the three months ended Sept 30 came in 8.6 per cent higher at $13.4 million, compared with $12.3 million a year back and exceeded forecasts by 8 per cent.

Boosted by additional rental income from the acquisition of investment properties during the period, the logistics real estate investment trust's (Reit's) net property income (NPI) registered a gain of 11.4 per cent at $16 million compared with $14.4 million in 3Q10.

For the first nine months of the year, the NPI and distributable income have risen 69.8 per cent and 68.8 per cent year-on-year, with numbers coming in at $45.9 million and $39.1 million respectively.

As at end-September, all of the warehouses in Cache's portfolio continue to be fully occupied with a weighted average lease to expiry of 4.9 years - one of the highest in the local Reit universe.

Gearing came in slightly higher at 30.4 per cent for the period, up from 2Q11's 29.1 per cent, but remains at healthy levels leaving adequate debt headroom.

Recent acquisitions by the Reit include the Air Market Logistics Centre at 22 Loyang Lane, which brings the Cache's total portfolio to a total of 10 properties located in both Singapore and China.

The CEO of the Reit's manager, Daniel Cerf, remains optimistic on Cache's outlook, saying: 'We will continue to track the positive fundamentals of the market in our pursuit of enhancing the portfolio organically and with value- add acquisitions.'

Yesterday, Cache closed two cents higher at $1.00.

Publish date: 28/10/11

MCT posts DPU of 1.333cents for Q2

Business Times - 28 Oct 2011

MCT posts DPU of 1.333cents for Q2

Net property income was $31.7m and income available for distribution, $24.8m


MAPLETREE Commercial Trust (MCT) yesterday announced a distribution per unit of 1.333 cents for the second quarter ended September, beating its forecast DPU of 1.218 cents by 9.4 per cent.

This translates to an annualised distribution yield of 6 per cent, based on the IPO price of 88 cents per unit.

For the period April 27 (its listing date) to Sept 30, its aggregate DPU is 2.289 cents, exceeding the IPO forecast of 2.097 cents by 9.1 per cent.

MCT achieved net property income of $31.7 million, 2.5 per cent above its forecast for the quarter.

Income available for distribution for the quarter was $24.8 million, beating its forecast by 9.4 per cent mainly due to the higher net income and lower interest costs on borrowings.

In particular, the company enjoyed a favourable average all-in interest rate of 1.95 per cent, compared with the forecast 2.43 per cent, said the manager, Mapletree Commercial Trust Management (MCTM).

VivoCity mall - which has close to 100 per cent occupancy - saw both tenant sales and shopper traffic increase 9.4 per cent and 13.9 per cent respectively year-on-year, for the period from April 1 to Sept 30.

With the new leases and renewals committed to date, a significant portion of the leases expiring this financial year have been renewed or re-let, providing rental uplift of approximately 20 per cent.

For its office portfolio, MCT achieved an occupancy level of 95.2 per cent, from last quarter's 92.8 per cent, higher than the fringe office occupancy rate of 91.7 per cent for Q2.

Alexandra Retail Centre (ARC), the section of PSA Building now being upgraded, is also on track for completion by December.

'We are also planning to progressively open some F&B and retail tenants soon after completion to serve our office tenants and both the working and residential population in the vicinity,' said Amy Ng, chief executive of MCTM.

MCT ended trading yesterday half a cent higher at 86 cents.

Publish date: 28/10/11

GMG shares recover after early fall

Business Times - 28 Oct 2011

GMG shares recover after early fall

Yesterday's reaction comes after firm unveils plans for a sharply discounted rights issue


RUBBER plantation owner GMG Global's shares recovered from an initial drop yesterday to close up 2.1 per cent after it unveiled plans to raise net proceeds of $344.1 million through a sharply discounted rights issue.

On Wednesday, the group announced that it will issue about 3.84 billion new shares at 9.1 cents per share - a 61.3 per cent discount to GMG's closing price of 23.5 cents on Tuesday. Shareholders will be offered one rights share for every ordinary share held.

The rights issue sparked a post-holiday selloff early yesterday, with the stock falling as low as 22 cents, down 6.4 per cent. But it swung back to close half a cent up at 24 cents. Some 31.7 million shares changed hands, making GMG one of the most actively traded stocks.

GMG said that about 80 per cent of its expected net proceeds of about $344.1 million will be used for capital expenditure and strategic investments and the remaining 20 per cent for working capital.

'The rights issue has been proposed to enhance the group's financial capacity and flexibility in pursuing strategic growth and acquisition opportunities, and to provide the group with additional capital for the continuous development of the acquired or expanded entities as well as the current businesses of the group,' said GMG.

It added that it is currently able to meet all of its financial obligations under its banking facilities, and is not undertaking the rights issue to refinance existing borrowings.

Sinochem International (Overseas), which has a direct 51 per cent stake in GMG, has undertaken to subscribe for its pro-rata entitlement and for 344 million excess rights shares which, if allocated, will take the aggregate to 60 per cent of the total number of rights shares.

The controlling shareholder, a member of China's largest trading company Sinochem Group, has also undertaken to vote in favour of the proposed rights issue at an extraordinary general meeting.

On Monday, GMG announced a 49.3 per cent year-on-year surge in third-quarter net profit to $24.4 million as revenue jumped 183 per cent to $312.3 million. The group had cash and cash equivalents of $123.1 million as at Sept 30, 2011.

Publish date: 28/10/11

Global markets toast eurozone debt deal

Business Times - 28 Oct 2011

Global markets toast eurozone debt deal

Accord reached on 50% Greek haircut, recapitalisation of weak banks, levering up of bailout fund


SCEPTICS who thought eurozone leaders could not pull off a deal to address the region's financial crisis had to eat humble pie at 4am in Brussels.

The preliminary agreement, though lacking in important details, was obviously good enough for the markets for now. Asian and European stocks surged yesterday on the news. Wall Street, getting an extra boost from numbers showing the US economy grew at its fastest pace in a year in the third quarter, ended the morning's trading with a 291.45-point rise to 12,160.49.

In Brussels at 4am, 17 exhausted European leaders had announced their 'three-pronged strategy' to address the region's crisis after pulling an all-nighter.

The talks, led by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicholas Sarkozy, also involved 15 other heads of state, central bankers, International Monetary Fund officials and bankers.

As expected, the agreement comprised a significant 50 per cent writedown of Greek sovereign debt, recapitalisation of vulnerable European banks, and the leveraging up of the 440 billion-euro (S$770 billion) European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) bailout fund to prevent Spain, Portugal and Italy from catching the Greek crisis virus.

Details of the deal are still to be hammered out and several analysts warn that there could be pitfalls ahead, although all agreed that the preliminary accord had bought time. The main criticism of analysts is that the deal is 'long on intentions and short on detail'.

Mr Sarkozy has also appealed to China to buy European debt and invest in the region. So far there is no official confirmation on whether China will help fund the eurozone.

Foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said, however, that the eurozone agreement 'is conducive to lifting market confidence, promoting the sustainable economic development of the EU and the eurozone and injecting new vitality into European integration'.

Under immense pressure, the banks agreed to take a 50 per cent haircut on Greek bonds in line with market values, reducing Greece's debt burden by 100 billion euros and cutting the country's debts to 120 per cent of GDP by 2020, from the current 160 per cent.

Eurozone member states would contribute 30 billion euros to the 'haircut' package.

'On that basis, the official sector stands ready to provide additional programme financing of up to 100 billion euros until 2014, including the required recapitalisation of Greek banks. The new programme should be agreed by the end of 2011 and the exchange of bonds should be implemented at the beginning of 2012,' said the statement after the meeting. 'We call on the IMF to continue to contribute to the financing of the new Greek programme.'

In turn, Greece has committed to raise money through privatisation sales and to carry out fiscal programmes to lower its indebtedness by 15 billion euros, the statement continued. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou said the deal means that Greece's debt burden will be sustainable. Greece will produce no more primary budget deficits from next year, but some of the country's banks may face temporary nationalisation as a result of the debt relief, he warned.

A key aspect of the eurozone deal is that European banks must raise their Tier 1 capital ratio to 9 per cent in 2012, compared with the former Basel III international ruling of 7 per cent. In practice this implies that Europe's banks will have to raise at least 106 billion euros in fresh capital.

The European Banking Authority (EBA) has tested 70 banks but a spokesman said that the figures would be updated to end-September figures. Based on EBA June stress tests, Greek banks need to boost their capital by 30 billion euros, Spanish banks 26.2 billion euros, Italian banks 14.8 billion euros, French banks 8.8 billion euros, Portuguese banks 7.8 billion euros, and German banks by 5.5 billion euros.

The lenders have until Dec 25 to submit their plans for raising the money to central banks and regulators. After the Greece write-off, it is likely that the amounts could be considerably higher.

Details to lever up the EFSF bailout fund are fuzzy. The eurozone statement said that the 17 nations had agreed 'on two basic options to leverage the resources of the EFSF'. First, the bailout fund 'would reduce funding costs of new loans by offering credit enhancements' and also partially provide loss insurance to European and international investors purchasing eurozone bonds.

The second option is 'maximising the funding arrangements of the EFSF with a combination of resources from private and public financial institutions and investors, which can be arranged through Special Purpose Vehicles'. The aim is to 'enlarge the amount of resources available to extend loans, for bank recapitalisation and for buying bonds in the primary and secondary markets'.

The statement explained that the EFSF will have 'the flexibility to use these two options simultaneously ... The leverage effect of each option will vary, depending on their specific features and market conditions, but could be up to four or five'.

Some economists interpreted this statement to mean that the 440 billion euro EFSF capital, which is financed by European, mainly German, taxpayers, could gear up to around two trillion euros. German and other parliaments will have to agree to this extra risk and foreign investors will scrutinise the small print as vulnerable nation bonds will remain very risky.

Publish date: 28/10/11


亚洲股市教父胡立阳:捡便宜货的时候到了 2011年10月16日 14:39 证券市场红周刊


  《红周刊》记者 谢长艳



























Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 新浪财经
Publish date: 16/10/11

Cache Logistics Trust: Consistent and transparent (DBSV)

Cache Logistics Trust
Consistent and transparent
BUY S$1.00
Price Target : S$ 1.11

At a Glance
• 3Q11 DPU of 2.09 Scts; accounting for 76% of our FY11 estimates
• Strong earnings a key quality; balance sheet remains strong
• BUY, TP maintained at S$1.11

Comment on Results
3Q11 results in line, forming 76% of our full year forecasts. Cache Logistics Trust (“Cache”) reported 13.5% and 11.4% yoy increases in topline and net property income (“NPI”) to S$16.7m and S16.0m respectively. The higher performance was mainly due to contributions from acquisitions (6 Changi North Way APC Districentre and 4 Penjuru Lane in Singapore and Jinshan Chemical Warehouse in China), supported by higher revenues from the annual hike in rentals (on the IPO portfolio). Interest costs were 21% higher yoy due to increased borrowings to fund their acquisitions. As a result, distributable income increased by 9% yoy to S$13.4m, translating to a DPU of 2.09 Scts (+9.0%).

Strong earnings visibility, balance sheet remains strong. With a portfolio of warehouses that are 100% leased on long-term triple net basis, Cache has one of the longest weighted average lease expiry (WALE) tenures of c4.9 years that underpins its strong and clear earnings visibility. Gearing remains comfortable at 30.4%. Looking regionally to grow its portfolio. Cache remains committed towards growing its portfolio – targeting 3rd party opportunities in the Asia Pacific region namely Singapore, Malaysia, China, Vietnam and Indonesia. In addition, sponsor CWT & C&P offers Cache the ability to acquire up to 3.5m sf of warehouse space at opportune time in the medium term.

BUY Call, TP maintained at S$1.11. Supported by a stream of transparent and stable cashflows, Cache offers an attractive FY11- 12F yield of 8.0%-8.5%. Our target price of S$1.11 offers a potential 19% total return

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date: 28/10/11

连续四个交易日走高 海指冲破2800点大关












  新翔集团起7分至2.42元,它前天宣布已以1亿5100万英镑的价格,脱售其英国非航空食品业务——英国Daniels集团予Hain Celestial集团在英国的公司。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:28/10/11


Created 10/27/2011 - 19:30






聯儲局官員的說法更可做為一個指標。聯儲局副主席葉倫(Janet Yellen)上週在一場演說中表示,不排除實施QE3的可能性。她說,聯儲局可能考慮加碼收購債券,以壓低利率,前提是經濟需要更強力、超過目前聯儲局所提供的協助。

紐約聯邦準備銀行總裁杜雷(William Dudley)日前也在一場會議上說,新一輪量化寬鬆是聯儲局可能的選項,“聯儲局的子彈並沒有用光”。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 星洲日報
Publish date: 28/10/11

曾淵滄專欄 2011 10 28: 中央有誘因開水喉

股市最壞的情況應已過去, 16170點應是恒指今年最低位。歐盟會議總算有個比較長遠的處理希臘國債的方案,這個方案倒不新鮮。之前德國總理已經多次如此建議,現在終於獲得歐盟成員國一致支持。方案是先要求成員國內的銀行集資 1000億歐元,這是準備為希臘國債爛賬撥備的。集資可以先嘗試向市場集資,市場集不到資金則由所屬國家注資。銀行集資之後,下一步是要求銀行半價回收希臘國債,即德國總理之前所說的有秩序違約。希臘半價還債,銀行的虧損則由集資來補充,如此一來,銀行就不會倒閉。

現在,恒指回到 20000點邊緣,在不足兩個月之間,急跌急升 3000多點,形成一個很完整的 V形。 20000點也許需整固,不過,後市依然看升。現在就等中央放鬆銀根,股市就可以飛升,補回 8月份的下跌裂口。

中央有放鬆銀根的誘因嗎?有的,目前內地股市可以說已經非常低殘淡靜,成交極低,導致新股上市無門,新股無法上市是會影響整個國家的經濟,這使到股市作為集資的作用消失。股市無法集資,經濟發展的速度會受壓。目前中國 GDP還能保持 9.1%的增速,主力還是靠國家的基建投資,但是民間的商業投資速度,已經因為銀根緊縮而半停頓,歐美經濟不景,出口也差了,沒有多少工廠有能力出口轉內銷。現在,通脹看來已經到頂,只是回落的速度還不快,但相信是會繼續回落,樓價也開始下跌。溫總已算是能向人民交代了,算是有能力壓抑通脹,壓抑樓價,解決民生問題。不要忘記,中國人民的整體工資是上升的,人民幣的滙率是上升的,工資上升與人民幣滙率上升改善了人民的生活,適當的放鬆銀根以避免大量中小企業倒閉是應該的。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 隱形富豪投資王之路
Publish date:28/10/11

ICBC: Still our top large cap pick (DBSV)

BUY HK$4.92
Price Target : 12-Month HK$ 7.24 (Prev HK$ 7.48)

Major Shareholders
Ministry of Finance (%) 33.8
Central Huijin (%) 33.8
Major H Shareholders (%)
Social Security Fund (%) 17.0
Goldman Sachs (%) 11.9
Capital Research and 6.0
H Shares-Free Float (%) 65.2

Still our top large cap pick
• 3Q net profit slightly beat estimates, 9M earnings met 78%/79% of DBSV/consensus estimates
• NIM, fees, and credit costs were key positives
• Capital strength and dividend outlook are key appeals
• Still our top large cap pick; reiterate BUY with TP at HK$7.24

3Q net profit slightly topped estimates. China’s biggest bank recorded a marginally better than expected 3Q net profit of Rmb54.4bn (up 28% y-o-y), slightly ahead of our estimate of Rmb52.6bn and the mean estimate of Rmb53.7bn in a Bloomberg survey. The bank’s 9M11 net profit met 78.4% of our full year forecast and 79.4% of consensus full year estimates.

NIM, fees, and credit costs were key positives. Key positive surprises to our forecasts include NIM, fees, and credit costs, which offset disappointing operating costs and contribution from Standard Bank. We also liked ICBC’s improvement in capital adequacy, as the bank’s core CAR climbed to 10.03% vs. 9.82% in June. ROA and ROE dipped slightly on a q-o-q basis, but were still very high at 1.45% and 24.7% respectively.

Still our top large cap pick; reiterate BUY. ICBC has already outperformed all large cap banks except ABC in recent weeks, but we still rate ICBC as our top large cap pick. We like the bank’s internal capital generation capability. As a result, ICBC has one of the lowest capital raising risk and strongest ability to payout high dividends in the sector. We also like the bank’s deposit franchise, which should limit funding cost pressure when interest rates liberalize in the longer run. ICBC’s growing overseas platform is also a plus, which will be an increasingly important competitive edge as China further liberalizes capital flows.

3Q results review
3Q net profit slightly topped estimates. China’s biggest bank recorded slightly better than expected 3Q net profit of Rmb54.4bn, slightly ahead of our estimate of Rmb52.6bn and the mean estimate of Rmb53.7bn in a Bloomberg survey. The bank’s 9M11 net profit met 78.4% of our full year forecast and 79.4% of consensus full year estimates.

NIM, fees, and credit costs were key positives. Key positive surprises to our forecasts include NIM, fees, and credit costs, which offset disappointing operating costs and contribution from Standard Bank. We also liked ICBC’s improvement in capital adequacy, as the bank’s core CAR climbed to 10.03% vs. 9.82% in June. ROA and ROE dipped slightly on a q-o-q basis, but were still very high at 1.45% and 24.7% respectively.

Some key 3Q trends:
Net interest income was slightly above expectation, thanks to better than expected NIM. We estimate ICBC’s 3Q NIM improved by 4bps q-o-q to 2.64%. Loan growth and asset growth were in line at 3.6% q-o-q and 1.6% q-o-q respectively. In terms of deposits, ICBC averted deposit contraction but q-o-q growth was only a pedestrian 0.8%.

PPOP was slightly better as well. ICBC’s pre-provision operating profit beat our forecast by 1.5%, largely due to positive surprises in NIM and fee growth. Stronger than expected income eclipsed disappointing operating cost inflation. The bank’s cost-income ratio deteriorated slightly from 2Q11’s 32.2% to 34.4% in 3Q.

Double dips in NPL amount and ratio. ICBC’s 3Q credit cost was lower than expected at 42bps. Meanwhile, provision to NPL ratio continued to improve to 273% from 261% in June, after the bank’s NPL amount and ratio fell during 3Q. The bank’s provision to loan ratio also edged up to 2.48%. Core CAR now exceeds 10%. ICBC cotinued to improve its capital position and saw a 21bps improvement to its core CAR. ICBC has one of the strongest capital positions, as well as high internal capital generation capability from its superior ROE. As a result, ICBC has low capital raising risk and also superior ability to payout high dividend yields on a sustainable basis.

Valuation and recommendation
Tweaked up earnings estimates but cut TP. We have tweaked up our FY11-13F earnings by 0.4-1.1% to factor in higher fee assumptions and operating cost forecasts. However, we have lowered our GGM-based target price from HK$7.48 to HK$7.24, after increasing our discount rate from 12.5% to 13.0%. Our new target price implies FY12 P/BV level of 1.8x, vs. 1.87x previously.

Still our top large cap pick; reiterate BUY. ICBC has already outperformed all large cap banks except ABC in recent weeks, but we still rate ICBC as our top large cap pick. We like the bank’s internal capital generation capability. As a result, ICBC has one of the lowest capital raising risk and strongest ability to payout high dividends in the sector. We also like the bank’s deposit franchise, which should limit funding cost pressure when interest rates liberalize in the longer run. We also like ICBC’s growing overseas platform, which will be an increasingly important competitive edge as China further liberalizes capital flows.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date: 28/10/11

PetroChina: Dim outlook (DBSV)

HOLD HK$10.38
Price Target : 12-Month HK$ 10.10

Dim outlook
• 9M11 results missed market estimates but in line with ours; earnings continued to be dragged by refining loss
• Resource tax may hurt the company more than expected, to acquire South Oil from parent but earnings impact limited
• Maintain Hold, prefer Sinopec as a cheaper oil play proxy

9M11 results met 75% of our estimates. We expect more downgrades from the market as headline earnings of RMB103bn (+3% y-o-y) made up only 70% of full year consensus forecast (RMB148bn). On a quarterly basis, 3Q11 net profit was at RMB37.4bn (+8% y-o-y, +29% q-o-q).Refining business posted three consecutive quarterly losses, resulting in 9M11 operating losses of RMB42bn as feedstock cost remained high (at US$106- 111/bbl vs. breakeven cost of US$100/bbl). Refining loss margin may widen further in 4Q11 following the government’s recent downward revision in retail prices of oil products. We believe total refining loss for the year could well exceed the RMB50bn level guided by the company. Meanwhile, E&P segment remained strong, with operating income increasing 50% y-o-y to RMB57bn driven by stronger production volume (+5% y-o-y) and higher realised oil price (US$104/bbl vs. US$42/bbl).

More downside to come? China will implement the reform resource tax from Nov 1 onwards. The company is expecting the sales-based tax to cost as much as RMB29bn this year. However, the heavier tax burden may be compensated by an increase in the special levy threshold (current threshold is at US$40/bbl). Without compensation, we estimate that there could be another 8-10% downside to our earnings estimates. Meanwhile, PetroChina has also revived talks to acquire South Oil from parent company, CNPC. The RMB1.7bnacquisition is expected to be completed before the year end, and we do not expect a significant impact to PetroChina’s earnings.

Maintain Hold, switch to Sinopec. Presently, we see more downside to PetroChina given the negative news flow (resource tax) and demanding valuation levels (10x FY12F PE vs. 8x historical average). We prefer Sinopec for better downside protection given it is trading at trough valuations. Maintain Hold on PetroChina and HK$10.10 TP.

Reviving the South Oil deal. The South Oil Exploration and Development Co. (South Oil) deal was first mooted in Aug 09, but subsequent change in governmental policy led to the deal being scrapped in Aug the following year. South Oil is principally engaged in the exploration and production of oil and gas in the Southern China region, with assets primarily in Guangdong, Hainan and Guangxi. South Oil’s equity interest is 95% held by CNPC E&D and 5% by CNPC Central Asia. In turn, CNPC E&D is held though a a 50-50 joint venture between PetroChina and China National Oil and Gas Exploration and Development Corporation

Connected transaction. The RMB1.7bn cash consideration was derived from 1.0x net asset value of South Oil as valued by China Assets Appraisal Co using the asset-based approach. The acquisition is expected to be completed before the year end, and when completed will help the company to accelerate the exploration and development of oil & gas in Southern China. The exercise will also enhance independency of business operations. South Oil posted revenue and net profit of RMB1.0bn and RMB474m in 2010, respectively. This acquisition is not expected to have a significant impact on PetroChina’s earnings

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date: 28/10/11


百盛零售亚洲(Parkson Asia)将以每股94分的价格,在新加坡交易所主板首次公开售股(IPO),并预计11月3日开始交易。




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:28/10/11

泰水灾影响本地多家企业 一公司估计将蒙受千万元损失






  祥和科技(Cheung Woh Technologies)虽然在泰国没有任何厂房或设施,不过公司数家硬盘驱动器零件客户在当地的设施以及供应链受洪水影响,因此公司预计其硬盘驱动器零件业务在本财年第三和第四季的营收将减少,导致该业务蒙受亏损。


  此外,洛科集团(Rokko)虽然在泰国没有任何工厂,但是集团的全资子公司Rokko Leadframes的三个客户,因为洪水涌入所在的工业区而被迫暂停营业,意味着公司的营收估计将会减低。



  合顺全球(Hup Soon Global)旗下的全资子公司Anglo-Thai以及联营公司United Motor Works(Siam)、超煜科技(Beyonics Technology)旗下的全资子公司超煜科技(泰国)、超成控股(Chosen)旗下全资子公司超成(泰国)有限公司也已暂时关闭在当地的办事处和厂房。它们有的已经将生产活动暂时迁移至其他地方。

  泰国酿酒(Thai Beverage)则有两家酿酒厂受影响,其中一家暂停运作,另一家则只用来生产饮用水,以帮忙解决水源短缺问题。



  添福胶胎(Stamford Tyres)在泰国的工厂与仓库都没洪水流入,但公司已经在工厂和仓库外挖掘水坑与堆砌沙包防范。

  英顺控股(ES Group)的泰国造船业务也没有受到水灾的影响,这是因为公司在泰国所经营的船厂位于离曼谷以南约365公里的塔沙革,但公司已经为任何天气情况的恶化作好准备。

  根据德盛安联资产管理(Allianz Global Investors)的一份报告,这场洪水不仅将影响泰国的工业领域,在受影响地区有业务的房地产公司的销售,估计也将减少;借贷人偿还贷款能力被洪水削弱,也将导致银行的资产素质减弱;当地市场的消费也料将放缓。

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:28/10/11

金管局:我国接下来几季 经济增长将减弱















Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:28/10/11








  欧元区领导人希望借助资金达4400亿欧元(近7737亿新元)的欧洲金融稳定基金(European Financial Stability Facility),支持负债累累的国家并抵御市场的冲击。




Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:28/10/11

总理:债务减记50%后 希腊可以持续承担债务
















Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: 联合早报
Publish date:28/10/11

Suntec REIT: 3Q11 DPU outperformed expectations (Nomura)

Suntec REIT
Rating Remains Buy
Target price Remains SGD 1.64
Closing price October 25, 2011 SGD 1.20

3Q11 DPU outperformed expectations
Suntec REIT (SUN) posted 3Q11 revenues of S$67.9m, up 7.4% y-y and 10.8% q-q, driven by consolidation of income from a larger stake in the Suntec convention centre. 3Q distributable income of S$56.4m was up 22% y-y and 0.3% q-q respectively. 3Q11 DPU of Scts 2.5 outperformed both our and the consensus forecast of Scts 2.3. Committed occupancy at Suntec City office was 98% at end-3Q11, vs. 99.5% at end-2Q11. Committed occupancy at its retail portfolio dipped 0.6ppt q-q to 96.5% at end-3Q11.

Market’s immediate reaction likely positive on DPU and Suntec office occupancy outperformance
We believe the market’s immediate reaction to this set of results is likely to be positive, as 3Q11 DPU outperformed expectations and committed occupancy at Suntec City office appears to have held up better than the market’s expectation. We highlighted in our results preview note dated 6 Oct 2011 that vacancy risk at office REITs such as SUN was already well flagged and largely priced in, which suggested room for positive surprise should occupancy hold up better than expected.

Stock is trading at 0.7x FY12F PBV & 7.9% FY12F DPU yield
SUN is currently trading at 0.7x FY12F PBV and a 7.9% FY12F DPU yield. We maintain our BUY rating and price target of S$1.64.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Nomura Research
Publish date: 26/10/11


熱點互動直播(642) 中國房地產市場何去何從:高利貸崩盤事件頻發,樓市泡沫加速破滅。 「全民放貸」的鄂爾多斯,再發10億元高利貸大案。涉及債權者或超過500人

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: youtube
Publish date:19/10/11

Suntec REIT: Compelling office value (Daiwa)

Suntec REIT
Compelling office value
• Upgrade to Buy; office play with value, FY12 DPU yield of 8.1%
• Unit price well below our target of S$1.50, trough end- 2013 NAV forecast of S$1.56
• 3Q11 results ahead of forecast

􀂃 What's new
Suntec REIT (Suntec) announced its 3Q11 results on 25 October 2011.

􀂃 What's the impact
Revenue and net-property income (NPI) were higher than our forecasts due to the consolidation of the convention centre, Suntec Singapore, after Suntec increased its stake to 60.8% from 20% in mid-August 2011.

The performance of its core Suntec City operations was in line. Revenue from Suntec City Office Towers declined to S$26.4m from S$27.4m in 2Q11 on negative rental
reversions, as the committed occupancy slipped to 98% from 99.5% in the previous quarter. Leases were signed at an average rent of S$8.41/sq ft compared with
S$9.28/sq ft for 2Q11. Revenue from the Suntec City Mall was flat QoQ at S$25.7m, with passing rents of S$10.10/sq ft (vs. S$10.16/sq ft for 2Q11). The committed occupancy declined to 96.5% from 97.1% in the previous quarter.

The better-than-expected performance at the distribution-perunit (DPU) level was due to stronger-than-expected income from its jointly-controlled entities, particularly Marina Bay Financial Centre (MBFC).

We have revised up our DPU forecasts for 2011-13E by 0.2-2.7%, and have not changed our target price of S$1.50, pegged to parity with our finite-life Gordon Growth
Model valuation.

􀂃 What we recommend
We have upgraded our rating to Buy (1) from Outperform (2) as we believe Suntec represents one of the best values in the office space, with a 2012 DPU yield of 8.1% compared with the weighted S-REIT sector average of 7.1% and 6.6-6.9% for its office S-REIT peers, based on our forecasts. Suntec trades at a 33% discount to its NAV of S$1.79 as at end-September 2011. We believe the market has overdiscounted the potential deterioration in rents and capital values in the office sector. Our
forecasts have assumed a 20% decline in rents from current levels to the trough of the cycle in 1H13, with average Suntec City office spot rents of S$7.70/sq ft for 2012 and S$7.10 for 2013. Our trough 2013E NAV is S$1.56. A potential positive catalyst would be a DPU-accretive retail-space asset-enhancement in Suntec City, possibly involving the integration of Suntec Singapore.

The major risk to our Buy rating and target price would be aggressive competition from Suntec City’s neighbouring office buildings, creating adverse rental and vacancy pressures for Suntec.

􀂃 How we differ
Our 2012-13 DPU forecasts are 4.8- 5.6% higher than those of the Bloomberg consensus as we believe Suntec’s DPU resilience is still underappreciated.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: Daiwa-Research,
Publish date: 26/10/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
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