Friday, June 17, 2011

Shares slump but analysts say downtrend is temporary

Shares slump but analysts say downtrend is temporary
by Jonathan Peeris
04:47 AM Jun 17, 2011
SINGAPORE - Shares in Singapore slumped yesterday, in line with losses for the rest of Asia and Europe, with sentiment hurt by mounting debt problems in the euro-zone and more signs of slowing growth in the United States and China.

The benchmark Straits Times Index ended down 34.7 points, or 1.14 per cent, at 3,020.13, after falling to its lowest intra-day level since late March, as worries over weak US data and Greece's spiralling debt troubles kept investors away.

Elsewhere in Asia, China's Shanghai Composite shed 1.5 per cent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng lost 1.8 per cent, while Japan's Nikkei-225 fell 1.7 per cent.

Late afternoon in Europe, London's FTSE was down 1.5 per cent while Germany's DAX declined 1 per cent.

But while analysts predicted more weakness in the near term, they were of the view that the downtrend would not last.

Mr Daryl Liew, head of portfolio management at Swiss private wealth management firm Reyl, said he was not surprised by the fall because markets had been correcting for a while already.

Mr Liew said: "The problems in Europe obviously have been the catalyst overnight but I think in general people are concerned over the potential ending of the second round of quantitative easing in the US as well as the situation in China with the tightening measures.

"I think it's basically a combination of all these three main reasons that has caused people to basically take risk off the table."

Mr Wong Sui Jau, general manager of fund distributor Fundsupermart, agreed, saying he wasn't too worried because the core fundamentals of companies remained strong.

"At this point in time, a lot of earnings are near record levels, if not already close to record levels," said Mr Wong.

"For example, in the US, overall earnings are going to hit record levels by the end of this year, yet valuations are not anywhere near the kind of levels to suggest this type of very, very strong earnings."

He added that the downside would likely be limited and that investors should take a long-term approach.

"In fact, for investors who are able to be patient enough to hold out this period, the potential rebound can be quite strong," said Mr Wong.

For the Singapore market, both analysts were of the view that it would start to see a rebound in the second half of the year and end 2011 higher.

Source/转贴/Extract/: TODAYonline
Publish date:17/06/11

Thursday, June 16, 2011

专家99%肯定 美经济二次衰退

专家99%肯定 美经济二次衰退
2011/06/16 6:18:13 PM


加拿大财富管理公司Gluskin Sheff经济学家罗森博格预言,美国经济二次衰退即将来临,且很快就会到来。



Source/转贴/Extract/: 南洋商报
Publish date:16/06/11

財經360 -- 0614 - 北美股市大連跌短線反彈無期?

Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:14/06/11

LMIR Trust: Favorable retail outlook ahead; reiterate BUY (OCBC)

According to Colliers International, no new retail supply entered the Jakarta market in 4Q10. Retail supply growth throughout 2010 in Jakarta and the greater Jakarta area was the lowest since 2009. With only 0.3% growth, YoY growth was 0.2pp below last year. Limited supply will continue throughout this year. In Jakarta, there will only be an additional 89,000 sq m of retail space by the end of 2011. The limited supply puts Lippo-Mapletree Indonesia Retail (LMIR) trust in a good stead to capitalize on growth opportunities arising from the economy recovery (Indonesia’s economic growth forecast is 6.9-7.0% for 2011). With a population of more than 200 million, a fast-growing economy and strong domestic consumption, Indonesia offers abundant potential for retail business. Likewise for retail landlords, who are expecting rentals to pick up in 2012-2013. We believe LMIR is poised to benefit from the rising mall culture in Indonesia. Reiterate BUY with an increased fair value of S$0.61 (prev: S$0.59).on favorable outlook ahead.

Retail supply. According to Colliers International, no new retail supply entered the market in 4Q10. Retail supply growth throughout 2010 in Jakarta and the greater Jakarta area was the lowest since 2009. With only 0.3% growth, YoY growth was 0.2pp below last year. Limited supply will continue throughout this year. In Jakarta, there will be an additional 89,000 sqm of retail space by the end of 2011 contributed mainly by Kuningan City Lifestyle and Entertainment. Colliers expects another 439,3556 sqm of retail space within the next three years and all of these projected developments are a component within mixed-use developments. Retail supply around Greater Jakarta is projected to be far less than in Jakarta. The limited supply puts LMIR in a good stead to capitalize on growth opportunities arising from the robust economy recovery (Indonesia’s economic growth forecast is 6.9-7.0% for 2011)

Occupancy rates & tenants. Up to the end of 1Q11, the occupancy rate of shopping malls in Jakarta was 85.04%, up 1.77% QoQ. We noted that occupancy rates have been steadily increasing for all regions of Jakarta since 2010. The average occupancy performance around the greater Jakarta area was also relatively stable, with occupancy standing at 82.9%. LMIR’s overall occupancy of 98% as at 31 Mar, compared favorably against these benchmarks. The emerging concept in Indonesia of combining department stores with F&B outlets further boosted shopper traffic and uplifted tenants’ performance. Some of the familiar tenants taking up new leases in Jakarta this year include Mad for Garlic, Marche, Muji, Yamaha Music School, Best Denki etc. In terms of the entry of new tenants, Payless Shoes, a shoe retailer from Kansas of the United States, also opened its first outlet in Indonesia. A giant retailer from Germany, Metro Group, also announced that it plans to invest as much as €300m in the next three years to establish 20 wholesale retail outlets in Indonesia.

Rental rates in Jakarta. There was no increase in rental rate in 1Q11. Strengthening occupancy performance has become more important for shopping malls at present. Retaining existing tenants by providing rents according to the lease agreement and offering reasonable rates for new tenants are common. In 1Q11, the average rental rate was recorded at Rp349,507 psm/mth. Despite showing no increase QoQ, the average rental rate was 1.16% higher YoY. With a population of more than 200 million, a fast-growing economy and strong domestic consumption, Indonesia offers abundant potential for retail business. Likewise for retail landlords, who are expecting rentals to pick up in 2012-2013. We believe LMIR is poised to benefit from the rising mall culture in Indonesia. Reiterate BUY with an increased fair value of S$0.61 (prev: S$0.59).on grounds of favorable outlook ahead

Source/转贴/Extract/: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:16/06/11

Berlian Laju Oil tanker losses spoilt 4Q numbers

Berlian Laju Tanker
RP340 Target: Rp480
Oil tanker losses spoilt 4Q numbers

• Below; but maintain OUTPERFORM. 4Q10 core net loss was US$50.9m, against our expectation of a profit of US$9.5m. Consequently, full-year core net loss amounted to US$75.5m against our US$15.1m loss forecast. While the chemical division performed according to expectations, the oil tanker & FPSO segment unexpectedly plunged into a 4Q operating loss of US$26.5m, from a US$1.5m loss in 3Q. We reflect the tough operating conditions in the oil tanker market by slashing core net profit by 266% for 2011 to a loss of US$46m, and by 90% for 2012 to just US$4m. We introduce 2013 forecasts. We maintain OUTPERFORM because chemical tanker rates should recover in 2012 and beyond, potentially providing catalysts, though we lower our target price to Rp480 from Rp495, still based on a 20% discount to SOP, following our earnings adjustments.

• Chemical shipping met forecasts; other divisions did not. The chemical shipping division earned US$93m in operating profit for the full year, meeting our forecast of US$94m. Chemical revenue was up 11% yoy, but EBIT was down 7% yoy on a 37% rise in bunker costs. On the other hand, gas tanker operating earnings were US$11m for 2010, against our US$15m expectation, due in part to an unexpected rise in depreciation in 4Q10 and higher-than-expected staff costs. Gas revenue was up 16% yoy for the full year, but EBIT was down 30% on higher depreciation and operating costs. The worst-performing segment was oil tankers, where the operating loss was a massive US$33.2m in 4Q against an operating profit of US$1m in 3Q. Tanker revenue collapsed to virtually nothing in 4Q, although costs were still being incurred. This loss more than offset the better FPSO performance, which earned US$6.7m in 4Q against a loss of US$2.6m in 3Q.

• Buana listed in May. PT Buana Listya Tama was listed at Rp155/share on 23 May and we have reflected the listing in our forecasts and valuation. We expect BLTA to recognise a gain on disposal of US$48m in 2011, but minority interest representing a 37.7% stake in Buana will also be recognised against Buana’s earnings. We have not imputed any cabotage contract wins in our numbers.

Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:16/06/11

NOL to expand owned fleet further (DBSV)

Neptune Orient Lines
HOLD; S$1.53,
Price Target: S$2.10

NOL to order 12 new ships for delivery in 2013-14 NOL to expand owned fleet further. Close on the heels of its recently announced S$300m 4.40% notes issue, NOL Group announced the signing of LOIs for 12 new ships with Korean shipyards due for delivery in 2013-14. The new order would include i) ten 14,000 TEU vessels to be constructed at Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries, and ii) two 9,200 TEU vessels to be constructed by Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co. (DSME). NOL would also be upgrading its existing order with DSME for ten 8,400 TEU ships to 9,200 TEU capacity, in line with the specs for the new 2-ship order at DSME. Taken together with its existing orders placed in 2007 and 2010, NOL will be adding about 350,000 TEUs in gross capacity over 2012-14. Given that about 150,000 TEU capacity ships come off charter during that period and will be replaced by the owned ships, net increase in capacity by 2014 will be around 200,000 TEUs or 35% from current levels. The owned-to-chartered fleet composition will also change from current 30:70 to about 50:50 by end-2014, in line with management’s targets.

The total consideration for new vessels and upgrades is around US$1.54bn. We estimate the 14,000 vessels to cost around US$130m each, the 9,200 TEU vessels to cost around US$100m and the upgrades to cost around US$5m each. The price looks fair to us and seems to be at a slight discount to OOCL's orders with Samsung in March'11 for six 13,000 vessels for US$138m each and Hamburg Sud's orders for six 9,700 TEU ships for US$118m each (as reported by Clarkson). The recent notes issue should help finance pre-delivery payments, while bank lending for the remainder can be arranged at a later stage. NOL has already secured bank-lending amounting to about 78% of value of its last batch of orders. Net gearing for the Group is, however, projected to increase from current levels of around 0.2x to 0.5x by end-FY12 and even higher, going forward, as more of the owned ships are delivered.

Indicative of change in strategy? The 14,000 TEU ships are the biggest that NOL has ordered to date, and is suitable for deployment on the Asia-Europe trade. The bigger players on the Asia-Europe trade like Maersk, MSC, CMA-CGM and CSCL have already deployed or ordered ships of this size/ class, and NOL would find it hard to compete effectively on this route without the cost advantages obtained from running these bigger and more efficient ships. The more aggressive intent to protect market share on Asia-Europe routes, where NOL has traditionally not been seen as a strong player, could be a sign of change in strategy as NOL has seen some recent changes in top management, including changes in Group CEO and the President of the container shipping division (APL). The smaller 9,200 TEU ships will however, be deployed on the Transpacific route, where NOL already has a premium position. We believe it is still very early days to call changes in the Group's longterm strategy, though.

Clouds building up in the horizon. While there is no immediate impact on earnings from these new orders, we view the industry-wide phenomenon of placing new orders to gain market share in the 2013-14 period with caution, as even the long-term demand-supply dynamics now begin to look increasingly fragile. In the near term, carriers continue to struggle with weakening freight rates across trade lanes, and there is no sign yet of a peak-season driven demand recovery. 2Q11 will likely be another loss-making quarter for NOL, as well as the industry at large, and whether 3Q11 will be strong enough to recover the losses will remain to be seen. As such, we maintain our HOLD call on the stock for now but see potential downside risks to our earnings assumptions for FY11/12.

Source/转贴/Extract/: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:16/06/11

SIA May '11 Stats: Load Factor Dips (DMG)

Singapore Airlines
Price S$14.00
Previous S$12.35
Target S$12.35
May '11 Stats: Load Factor Dips

SIA’s load factor for the month of May continued to weaken as forward bookings levelled off. We expect flat yields for FY12 given that high air fares owing to fuel surcharges are likely to cause passengers to switch to cheaper airlines, and the fact that low cost carriers are aggressively expanding their fleet. We are skeptical on SIA’s move to venture into the long haul low cost carrier segment as we think it would be value destructive to the airline’s premium branding and potentially dilute yields. Maintain SELL with the stock’s FV unchanged at S$12.35.

Passenger load factor weakens. SIA registered a YoY RPK growth of 4.3% (2 months YTD: 6%) in the month of May 2011 on the back of capacity growth of 6%, which further weakened its load factor by 1.2-ppts to 73.6%. Passengers carried was higher by 4% YoY (2M YTD: 5%) while capacity originally directed to the Tokyo route was diverted by adding frequency on routes to Hong Kong, Taipei and Male. SIA has been flying thrice-weekly to Sao Paulo via Barcelona since March but take-up has been poor. Its weaker passenger load factor was attributed to the East Asia and Americas region.

Cargo - Fragile economic recovery. FTK for the month of May was marginally flat on the back a 3.6% YoY increase in capacity as the cargo market braces itself for a faltering global economic recovery amid intensifying competition from other cargo carriers, which suggests that yields would continue to be trend down. This resulted in a YoY drop of 1.9-ppts in its cargo load factor to 64.7%, which was worse across all regions except the South West Pacific region.

Load factor to lighten further. On the back of a forecast 6% growth in capacity for FY12, we expect load factor to continue to dip as high air fares due to fuel surcharges send passengers running to cheaper airlines amid aggressive fleet expansion among low cost carriers that is chipping away market share given their added frequency on short haul routes. As a result, passenger yields are likely to remain flat. The intensifying competition has prompted a review of SIA’s strategy, whereby to maintain market share, SIA is targeting to set up a long haul low cost carrier within the next 12 months. We are skeptical on this move as we think it would be value destructive to SIA’s premium branding and would potentially dilute yields. In our view, the key to succeeding in the low cost business is generating passenger volume, and we believe this could work for shorter haul routes as revenue and high margins are primarily driven by ancillary income initiatives. Separately, recent ash clouds from Chile have halted flights headed for New Zealand and we understand that to date, none of SIA’s flights have been grounded, although flights to Christchurch and Wellington have been diverted to Auckland.

Reiterate SELL. SIA's near-term challenges are weakening load factor, flattening yields amid a fragile recovery in the global economy and soaring jet fuel prices, which will also be investors’ primary concern. We are making no changes to our earnings forecast and reiterate our SELL recommendation, with an unchanged FV of S$12.35, premised on 15x FY12 EPS. Since our downgrade last month, SIA’s share price has declined by 4.5% and we anticipate more downward pressure.

Source/转贴/Extract/: DMG & Partners Research
Publish date:16/06/11







「希臘危機讓人們擔心,歐洲會有更多的銀行倒閉並引發連串的連鎖反應,從而殃及總體經濟和燃料需求,」麻塞諸塞州戰略能源與經濟研究所總裁林奇(Michael Lynch)說。

Source/转贴/Extract/: Oriental Daily
Publish date:17/06/11






中國企業ADR再受重創 科技股在美遭拋售

中國企業ADR再受重創 科技股在美遭拋售


關注整體中資企業的上市交易基金和個股的選擇權活動顯示,投資人預計這些股份將進一步下挫。iShares FTSE/新華中國25指數基金自4月21日來大跌9%,週三跌1.7%。

「如果繼續跌,我也不會意外,」對沖基金SYW Capital表示,「許多這些企業的市盈率(P/E)在2倍,甚至有一家市值低於其賬面上的現金,但還是沒有人在乎--所有人都希望撤離。」






Source/转贴/Extract/: Oriental Daily
Publish date:17/06/11

冀一年內加入寰宇一家 馬航盼雙位數成長











 加入聯盟也是馬航業務轉型計劃(BTP 2)的一部分。


Source/转贴/Extract/: 中國報
Publish date:16/06/11


Created 06/16/2011 - 19:01

(吉隆坡16日訊)睦興旺工程(MUHIBAH, 5703, 主板建筑組)作為柔佛亞洲石油中心(APH)主要承包商,基於APH無力還債被大馬會計公司BBDO-Binder接管,導致睦興旺工程可能蒙受龐大註銷和虧損,股價今日暴跌20%至3年來最大跌幅。





















Publish date:16/06/11


Created 06/16/2011 - 18:30













Publish date:16/06/11

2011-0613-57金錢爆(外資超級8行情 )

Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:13/06/11

Muhibbah under pressure, skids 21c in late morning

KUALA LUMPUR: Shares of Muhibbah Engineering came under selling pressure in late morning on Thursday, June 16 on the negative surprise about the impact from news report about Asia Petroleum Hub (APH) -- which it undertook a project for -- faced receivership.

At 11.11am, it fell as much as 21 sen to RM1.69 with more than 11 million shares done.

APH, the developer and operator of the APH oil terminal in Johor, faced the prospects of receivership, news reports said.

CIMB Research said as one of the contractors for APH, Muhibbah was awarded the marine piling and jetty works worth RM820 million. Cost escalation in 2008 led to funding issues for APH and the stalling of payments due to Muhibbah.

“The unpaid amount has accumulated to about RM300 million, which does not include RM187 million worth of outstanding works as at end-2010. Muhibbah has not made any provisions for the project as the project is still deemed viable.

“A favourable outcome for the APH project would enhance Muhibbah’s net profit by an estimated RM12 million per annum in the form of interest savings from the RM300 million outstanding from APH as Muhibbah separately funded the project.

“The worst-case scenario for Muhibbah is a write-down of the RM300 million due from APH, which would push Muhibbah into losses for FY11. However, we believe that in a scenario where the receiver takes over management of APH, it may come up with a scheme to repay a large portion of the amount due to contractors, which would reducethe risk of a huge write-down.

“While this latest development is a slight disappointment, we are not overly concerned as the group’s fundamentals are still intact, backed by the buoyant CONSTRUCTION [] and oil & gas sector. Furthermore, the potential provisions would have no impact on RNAV as the amount is reflected as liabilities,” said CIMB Research.

Publish date:16/06/11

NOL orders new ships and upgrades worth US$1.54b

Business Times - 16 Jun 2011

NOL orders new ships and upgrades worth US$1.54b

Ten of the vessels will be 14,000 TEUs, its largest and most fuel efficient


CONFIRMING talk of a big shipbuilding deal, Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) has signed a letter of intent to build 12 new container ships in South Korea - 10 of which will be its largest ones ever. It will also be making the ships that it ordered last year even larger, which together with the new ships will cost about US$1.54 billion.

Of the 12 new ships, the largest ones - ten 14,000-twenty foot-equivalent unit (TEU) vessels - will be built at Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries Co.

Before this, the largest ships ordered by NOL were in the 10,000-TEU range, slated to be delivered in mid-December this year. The largest ships in its fleet currently are in the 8,000-TEU range.

The 14,000-TEU ships will be NOL's most fuel-efficient ships and will be used for its Asia-Europe trade, according to the group.

The remaining two 9,200-TEU ships being ordered will be built at Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co, NOL said in a statement released on the Singapore Exchange after the market closed yesterday.

The 9,200-TEU vessels are 'likely be employed in the Trans-Pacific trade', according to NOL.

NOL's share price hit an 18-month low yesterday, falling 8 cents - or 4.97 per cent - to $1.53 as the sixth-most heavily traded stock on the Singapore Exchange.

On top of the new ship orders, NOL also said that it will be making 10 of the ships that it had ordered from Daewoo last year even larger - upsizing them from 8,400 TEUs to 9,200 TEUs. NOL said these upgraded ships will also have a new and more efficient design and technology.

Both the new and upgraded ships are scheduled for delivery in 2013 and 2014.

NOL is buying new and larger ships to 'reduce unit capital and operating costs, meet future growth needs and replace older and smaller chartered vessels that will be returned to their owners in the charter market'.

Last week, NOL said that it would issue $300 million in euro medium term notes to partially finance the buying of new container ships.

The notes - which bear an interest of 4.4 per cent - will be due in 2021 under NOL's US$1.5 billion euro medium term note programme that it had set up last year.

Publish date:16/06/11

KNM Strong order backlog. (hwang)

KNM Group
BUY RM1.90
Price Target : 12-Month RM 3.35

Record high order book
• A matter of time before strong earnings recovery
• Record high RM5.5bn order book to sustain earnings growth
• Maintain BUY and RM3.35 TP (76% upside)

Strong order backlog.
At the analyst briefing yesterday, management remained optimistic of a recovery in 2011. As at May11, KNM has secured RM1.5bn worth of new orders, taking its order backlog to RM5.5bn. Its tender book remains strong at RM17bn, which means it is likely to meet our FY11 target order win of RM3bn given its historical success rate of 20%. We learned of delays at its RM2.2bn EnergyPark Peterborough project, and the management now expects it to commence next month.

Earnings recovery intact.
The weaker-than-expected 1Q11 earnings were largely due to recognition of low margin jobs secured back in FY09 and early FY10. KNM still has RM1bn worth of old contracts in its backlog, which we expect to be exhausted by FY11. We cut FY11F earnings by 15% because the old projects, which will account for c.50% of revenue this year, will yield lower margins. However, KNM’s prospects remain buoyant, as its large order book will support long-term earnings visibility. Hence, we are retaining our forecasts for FY12.

Undemanding valuation, maintain Buy. KNM is currently trading at attractive valuation of only 8x FY12 EPS, making it one of the cheapest O&G stocks in Malaysia. The recent sell-down by investors, due to disappointing 1Q11 earnings, is excessive. We remain bullish on KNM’s long-term prospect and the full impact of normalised margins will be reflected in FY12. We recommend investors to buy on weakness.

Earnings growth underpinned by RM5.5bn order book
KNM’s management remains optimistic of a strong recovery in 2011. As at May11, it has secured RM1.5bn worth of new orders that takes its order backlog to a record high RM5.5bn. Process equipment continues to dominate its order backlog with 38% share, renewable & green energy at 39%, and plant & technology at 19%.

Tender book remains strong at RM17bn, which means it will meet our FY11 target order win of RM3bn premised on its 20% historical success rate. We expect more new contracts to be dished out over the next few quarters as oil prices remain high and the outlook remains promising for global O&G sector and renewable energy industry.

We learned there are delays in its RM2.2bn EnergyPark Peterborough project due to issues with funding arrangements by the awarding party. Meanwhile, KNM, has secured all its required financing and is only awaiting the green light to start procurement and construction. The management now expects the project to start next month. Earnings recovery intact. The management acknowledged the weaker-than-expected 1Q11 earnings and that they were largely due to the recognition of low margin jobs secured back in FY09 and early FY10. We understand KNM still has RM1bn worth of old contracts in its backlog that will be completed this year. Given that these old projects will comprise c.50% of our FY11 forecast, we cut FY11 earnings by 15% after imputing lower margins. We expect earnings recovery to be more pronounced in 2H11, especially in the fourth quarter. However, we believe its outlook remains buoyant as its large order book will support long-term earnings visibility. Hence, we are retaining our forecasts for FY12.

Growth Strategies
The management shared that the Russian O&G market has strong potential given its rich gas reserves and that KNM might explore that in the future. Also, Petronas’ recently launched RM60bn Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development (RAPID) presents lots of opportunities given its forte in the downstream O&G sector, supplying process equipment. The potential addressable market for KNM, the management estimates, is up to US$3-4bn. Nevertheless, RAPID is still under feasibility studies and will only come onstream about 2016.

Valuation and Recommendation
KNM is currently trading at only 8x FY12 EPS, making it one of the cheapest O&G stocks in Malaysia. The recent selldown due to weak 1Q11 earnings is excessive and we recommend investors to buy on weakness. We remain bullish on KNM’s long-term prospects and the full impact of normalised margins will be reflected in FY12. Maintain BUY and RM3.35 target price, implying 76% upside potential.

Source/转贴/Extract/: HWANGDBS Vickers Research
Publish date:14/06/11

KNM More contracts to be recognized in FY12 (midf)

KNM Group Berhad
Maintain BUY .
Target Price (TP): RM3.20
More contracts to be recognized in FY12 Unchanged

• To recover starting 2HFY11. KNM held a post-results briefing yesterday. Disappointing 1QFY11 performance and earnings visibility moving forward were the key issues discussed. To recap, low margin projects secured during FY09 and 1HFY10 when the competition was intense due to economic slowdown led to margin compression in 1QFY11. Management guided that 2QFY11 results are expected to remain flat before improving in 2HFY11 given the remaining RM1b low margin orders backlog (refer Graph A).

• Newly secured contracts will boost earnings. KNM’s total outstanding order book hit RM5.5b as at May11, of which RM4.5b was only secured in 2HFY10 and 1HFY11. Should the contracts to be realized starting 2HFY11, KNM’s earnings visibility as well as investors’ confidence is expected to be enhanced. Management expects the RM2.2b job (accounting for 40% of total current backlog) awarded by Peterborough Renewable Energy Limited to be recognized starting July11 instead of initial targeted Apr-May11 due to delays in their bank funding process.

• FY11 earnings target cut. Following the lackluster 1QFY11 results performance and delay in revenue/earnings recognition from Peterborough project, management revised downwards its FY11 revenue and EBITDA target to RM2.2b and RM270m respectively from RM2.4b and RM363m (refer Table B). We are also cutting our FY11 earnings estimates by -18.2% to RM190m and introducing FY12 number of RM229m. Our gross profit margin assumption for the contracts secured in 2HFY10 and year-to-date FY11 is pegged at 20%, more conservative than management guidance of 25%.

• Opportunity in RAPID project. KNM’s tender book increased substantially by +45% to RM16b as at Jan11 from RM11b a year ago. Growing tender book indicates rising exploration and production (E&P) spending which augurs well for KNM’s earnings growth prospects. Judging from past track records, KNM’s tender success rate is estimated at about 20%. In addition, the management estimates that the recently announced Refinery and Petrochemical Integrated Development (RAPID) project in Pengerang Johor can expose KNM to potentially USD3b-4b worth of tenders.

• Maintain BUY with unchanged Target Price of RM3.20. We are rolling over our valuation into FY12 number as we believe it is more reflective over the sizeable contracts that KNM has garnered, which is expected to be realized for the full year in FY12. FY10-FY12 EPS CAGR is estimated at about +30%. Our Target Price is derived from 14x PER12, which is within its historical PER band and peers’ average.

Source/转贴/Extract/: MIDF RESEARCH
Publish date:14/06/11

KNM Lowering expectations (Ecm)

KNM Group
12-month upside potential
Target price 1.68
Current price (as at 13 June) 1.90

Lowering expectations
We downgrade our earnings estimates for KNM by 48-54% for FY11-FY13 to be slightly lower than the group’s already lowered guidance. KNM’s margins are now moving targets as project delays resulted in higher manufacturing costs. We downgrade our call from buy to HOLD.

What’s new
_ KNM lowered their FY11 profit guidance by some 26% yesterday to RM270m at EBITDA levels owing to project delays and also lower than expected margins.

_ They are experiencing some delays in their UK Biomass project (due to delay in formalisation of project funding which was delayed from April to July) and are likely to begin procurement only in 4Q11. Some recognition is nonetheless expected from the RM2.2bn project but skewed towards 2H11.

_ Besides these delays, the group notes that 2Q11 results will also be slow as they still have some RM1bn of old orders (from 2009-1H10) to clear off in their books. These jobs have low margins like those seen in 1Q11 (<5% at EBIT level) and consist of many small but delayed projects.

_ Latest orderbook is still strong at RM5.5bn and latest tenderbook is RM17bn. This does not include new projects like RAPID but includes new LNG projects in Australia. Typical success rate for KNM is 10-20%.

Earnings revision
_ We are cutting our FY11 earnings estimate by 51% to account for delays in the UK biomass project as well as overall lower margins for existing orderbook. We also cutting FY12 and FY13 earnings on the assumption that current orderbook will not be as lucrative as expected.

Investment merits
_ KNM does have a very strong orderbook that will provide them with earnings visibility into 2014 provided that project execution and cost control is good.

Re-rating catalysts
_ Earlier than expected recognition from the UK biomass project and also stronger than expected margins. KNM expects margins of 20% at gross level compared to our estimate of <15%.

_ New lucrative projects secured by Borsig as it remains the most profitable amongst KNM’s subsidiaries now. Borsig’s orderbook is some RM1.5bn (to last 24 months) out of the RM5.5bn and gross margins are steady at 20%.

Key risks
_ Higher than expected manufacturing costs due to project delays on KNM’s part. The group as such has to make up for loss time by putting in additional work hours or equipment to make up for delays.

_ Following our earnings cut, our target price declines from RM3.43 to RM1.68 (FY11 EPS pegging 15x market P/E) indicating an 11% downside. As such, we downgrade our call from a BUY to a HOLD.

Source/转贴/Extract/: ECM Libra Capital
Publish date:14/06/11

KNM Brace for further headwinds (MIB)

KNM Group
Hold (from Buy)
Share price: RM1.90
Target price: RM2.00 (from RM4.35)

Brace for further headwinds
Cut forecasts, downgrade to Hold. Our initial forecasts are too optimistic and management is guiding for lower profits as earnings could remain weak over the next few quarters. This is disappointing for we had expected earnings to rebound on the new orders secured in the past 12 months. The financing for the Peterborough project is still unresolved. We lower our target price to RM2.00 based on reduced PE multiple target of 10x (previously 14x) as we also cut earnings forecasts.

Downbeat assessment. Although orderbook build up momentum has improved, earnings will remain depressed over the next 9 months as KNM still needs to deliver RM1.0b worth of jobs committed under razor thin EBIT margins (5-8%). These low margin orders account for 18% of its RM5.5b outstanding orderbook as at May 2011. Consequently, internal targets for 2011 revenue and EBITDA have been lowered by 8% and 26% to RM2.2b and RM270m respectively.

Cost management is a concern. We have cut our earnings forecasts by 18-35% for 2011-13, taking into account the downbeat prospect in the short-mid term period. We now expect KNM to deliver a lower net profit of RM139m for 2011, RM190m for 2012 and RM300m for 2013. This is based on lower utilisation rate assumptions of 95,000 tpa for 2011 (-5%) and 100,000 tpa for 2012 (-9%) and reduced EBIT margin assumptions of 12.3% (-3.4-ppt) and 14.1% (-4.1-ppt) for 2011-12.

Downgrade to Hold. Share price has fallen 25% post the poor 1Q11 results which were sub-par. RM19m 1Q11 net profit made up just 9% of our earlier full-year forecast, but this was aided by tax incentives (+RM18m) which partially offset weak margins (4.1% EBIT, -1.3 ppt QoQ). While share price should have, by now, substantially price in the lower earnings expectations for the near term, the upside will be capped by the negative outlook surrounding its earnings deliverability. We reiterate that top line recovery is visible but KNM needs to deliver its normalised margins on the bottom line to rerate.

Source/转贴/Extract/: Maybank Investment Bank
Publish date:14/06/11

Top Glove Hold for FY12 recovery (hwang)

Top Glove Corporation
Price Target : 12-Month RM 5.30

Hold for FY12 recovery
• Expect 3QFY11 to be another weak quarter as latex prices remained high
• Slower-than-expected earnings recovery prompted us to cut FY11F EPS by 25%
• Negatives priced in; maintain Hold and RM5.30 TP

Expect 3QFY11 result to be flat qoq. Top Glove will release 3QFY11 result on 17 June. We expect it to be weak, given continued high latex coupled with a still weak USD during Mar-May. Latex prices averaged RM10.00 per kg in the quarter, similar to 2QFY11 levels. On top of that, the USD has weakened another 2% against the RM qoq. Hence, demand remained flat due to high ASPs.

Cut FY11F earnings 25%, expect lower dividends. We initially expected earnings and margins to recover in 2HFY11, but given the current firm latex prices, we will only see a meaningful recovery in FY12. In addition, Top Glove will be hit by higher energy costs following the electricity tariff hikes this month. We have revised our assumptions as follows: (i) 7% higher electricity costs; (ii) progressive 20-45% hike in gas costs, and (iii) higher latex prices (RM8.10-8.80 per kg). Consequently, we cut FY11F earnings by 25% and nudged down FY12 by 1%. Top Glove might declare lower dividend for FY11, given the need to conserve cash for expansion and working capital. As such, we lowered our DPS assumption to 11sen (from 16 sen) based on 50% payout.

Maintain Hold and RM5.30 TP pegged to 13x CY12 EPS. Top Glove remains a HOLD because we believe the negative newsflow on earnings and dividends have been priced in. Key re-rating catalysts are a drop in latex prices and pickup in demand.

Source/转贴/Extract/: HWANGDBS Vickers Research
Publish date:13/06/11

CIMB fund flows round-up (weekly)

CIMB fund flows round-up (weekly)

Risk-off due to growth concerns
Fund outflows resume. For the week ending 8 June, net outflows resumed after the previous week’s respite. DM outflows (-US$7bn) remained largely led by North America. There were also net outflows from Emerging Markets (-US$0.4bn), albeit on a smaller scale than DM. Similarly, EM Asia saw a relatively small outflow of US$0.08bn. Within EM Asia, Taiwan and Korea saw net outflows last week despite recording overall net inflows YTD. What stood out for us were the larger-thanexpected inflows for Malaysia (+US$52m) and outflows for Thailand (-US$42m), in line with the more defensive market characteristic for the former and the rising political concerns for the latter. We are making the anti-consensus call to remain Overweight on Thailand. We do not expect political concerns to offset the positives of Thailand’s macro picture and earnings outlook (for more, please refer to ‘Stay invested - temporary risk-off from growth fears’ dated 10 June 2011).

Macro data still below expectation. One consistent thread in the recent period is disappointing macro data. For the past week, the key macro data that came in lower than expected included the change in US non-farm payroll for May (54k actual vs. 164k expected vs. 232k previously). Malaysia’s industrial production growth for April also turned negative, reflecting ongoing moderation in the economic recovery. On the positive end, Indonesia continued to accumulate foreign reserves (US$118bn for end-May) while keeping its currency stable. The US and Thai consumer sentiment indicators also continued to hold firm.

Markets risk-off continues. Asian markets were again down across the board in the past week, except for the Nikkei 225. YTD, India, Japan, China, Singapore and HK experienced the sharpest market declines (in descending order). The past week’s market weakness was, however, broad-based, in line with general risk-off sentiments given the recent weeks’ fund outflows and continued macro data disappointment, especially in the US. Crude oil prices, meanwhile, remain around US$100/bbl. The euro continues to hover in the range of 1.41 to 1.45 against the US$. The Baltic Dry index stayed on its descent.

Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:13/06/11

Tiger Airways Grey skies down under, but value emerging (CIMB)

Tiger Airways Holdings Limited
NEUTRAL Upgraded
S$1.28 Target: S$1.40
Grey skies down under, but value emerging
Volcanic ashes ground flights in Australia…
… but upgrade from Underperform to Neutral. Volcanic ash from the Chilean Puyehue eruption has reached Australia and New Zealand. Tiger Australia announced yesterday that it has halted all flights until the situation improves. We lower our FY12 earnings estimate by 11.6% but retain our FY13-14 forecasts. Accordingly, our target price dips to S$1.40 (from S$1.43), still based on 8x CY12 EPS, the industry’s 4-year historical forward average. Despite our earnings revision, we see some value emerging from Tiger’s recent underperformance. We believe negatives from its regional expansion issues are gradually priced in, and upgrade it to Neutral. Further re-rating catalysts could include: 1) a favourable outcome in its regional expansion; 2) weakness in oil prices; and 3) a pick-up in the global economic outlook.

The news
According to the Sydney Morning Herald, volcanic ash from the Chilean Puyehue eruption had reached Australia on Saturday night and is expected to linger in the next few days. Flights to and from Melbourne, Tasmania and New Zealand have been grounded, as airlines take no chances. On Sunday evening, Tiger Australia cancelled 12 flights and halted services in Australia until the situation improves.

Financial impact. Tiger has three bases in Australia, two in Melbourne (Avalon and Tullumarine). Management has decided to take precautionary measures by halting all services in Australia. Tiger Australia currently operates 10 aircraft, each with six scheduled flights per day. Depending on the period of service suspension, Tiger Australia could face losses of up to S$6.5m per week.

Minor speed bump to its Australian recovery. However, in our view, this event is but a minor speed bump in Tiger Australia’s recovery, with its longer-term prospects still positive. Management is managing capacity in Australia to limit losses.

Value emerging from recent sell-down. Tiger’s share price has taken some beating from its poor full-year performance, uncertainties from its regional expansion and CEO Tony Davis’s recent share sales. We believe most of the negatives are gradually priced in. With new capacity transferred to Asia, Tiger should be able to tap strong regional demand, and benefit from a lower-cost base. In addition, its quest for a second base in Asia, if successful, could possibly act as a share-price catalyst. Tiger is trading at 7.2x CY12 P/E, below the industry’s 4-year historical forward average. Its implied EV/EBITDAR is 6.6x, below the 7-9x range for high-growth airlines. We see value emerging.

Valuation and recommendation
Upgrade from Underperform to Neutral. While there may still be some downside risks from its regional expansion and high oil prices, Tiger is trading below peers and we believe the negatives are gradually priced in. We upgrade it to Neutral, albeit with a lower target price of S$1.40 after accounting for the flights grounded. We could rerate the stock again on favourable outcomes in its regional expansion; weakness in oil prices; and a pick-up in the global economic outlook.

Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:13/06/11

Muhibbah Not the end of the road for APH (CIMB)

Muhibbah Engineering
TRADING BUY Maintained
RM1.90 Target: RM2.75
Not the end of the road for APH

APH receivership
The receivership status for the APH project as reported by SBT yesterday was a negative surprise. However, it should not be a major concern at this juncture as APH is likely to negotiate for more time to resolve the matter and rope in a new investor. The worst-case scenario for Muhibbah is a write-down of the c.RM300m due from APH, which would push Muhibbah into losses for FY11. However, there is no impact on RNAV as the amount is reflected as liabilities. As we view a write-down as remote at this juncture, we maintain our forecasts and RM2.75 target price, which is pegged to an unchanged 10% discount to RNAV. Notwithstanding this negative news, we continue to rate Muhibbah a TRADING BUY and one of our top picks for the construction sector. The main potential re-rating catalyst is project awards.

The news
Yesterday, Singapore Business Times reported that Asia Petroleum Hub (APH), the developer and operator of the APH oil terminal in Johor, has been placed under receivership. APH had secured in 2006 a RM1.4bn three-year bridging loan but has been looking RM2bn additional funding following the escalation of the project cost. According to sources, at end-2010, APH’s cumulative capital expenditure amounted to slightly over RM1.4bn and physical completion was 64%. APH has been put under receivership mainly because it could not come up with other investors to help fund the development and repay its debt. It has placed under a receiver, Malaysian accounting firm BBDO-Binder.

Receivership not enforced. Though this news is a surprise and would be perceived as negative for the resolution of additional funding for APH, we understand that APH is likely to negotiate for a further extension of time to allow it to continue its talks with a potential new investor. We also gather that although a receiver was appointed last month, there has been no change in management control. Receivership status typically involves a temporary transfer of control from the management to the appointed receiver. On the status of a potential new investor, we understand that APH is still in talks, probably with a new foreign party which would pump in the funds needed to restart the project. The indicative timeline is towards end-2011.

Status quo for Muhibbah. As one of the contractors for APH, Muhibbah was awarded the marine piling and jetty works worth c.RM820m. Cost escalation in 2008 led to funding issues for APH and the stalling of payments due to Muhibbah. The unpaid amount has accumulated to c.RM300m, which does not include RM187m worth of outstanding works as at end-2010. Muhibbah has not made any provisions for the project as the project is still deemed viable. A favourable outcome for the APH project would enhance Muhibbah’s net profit by an estimated RM12m p.a. in the form of interest savings from the RM300m outstanding from APH as Muhibbah separately funded the project.

The worst-case scenario for Muhibbah is a write-down of the c.RM300m due from APH, which would push Muhibbah into losses for FY11. However, we believe that in a scenario where the receiver takes over management of APH, it may come up with a scheme to repay a large portion of the amount due to contractors, which would reduce the risk of a huge write-down. While this latest development is a slight disappointment, we are not overly concerned as the group’s fundamentals are still intact, backed by the buoyant construction and oil & gas sector. Furthermore, the potential provisions would have no impact on RNAV as the amount is reflected as liabilities.

Details of APH
Project name : Asia Petroleum Hub (APH)
Project owners : KIC Oil and Gas (70%), Trek Perintis (10%)
Location : Reclaimed island off the coast of Johor
Land size : 40 ha
Objective : To meet demand petroleum storage and blending
: To complement Singapore which is the largest transhipment centre
Type of facility : Fully integrated oil terminal with storage facility
Storage capacity : 924k cubic metres
Other facilities/features : Large transhipment capacity and multiple jetties
: Handling vessels from 1k DWT coastal tankers 350k DWT ultra large crude carriers
: Capacity of handling 30m tonnes of petroleum products
Revenue at full capacity : US$20bn p.a.
Bridging loan granted : RM1.4bn (2006)

KIC Oil and Gas is a private terminal operator and bunker operator
Muhibbah Engineering is among the five companies under the project team
Muhibbah Engineering was awarded the c.RM820m job for marine piling and jetty

Valuation and recommendation
Maintain TRADING BUY. The receivership status for the APH project as reported by SBT yesterday was a negative surprise. However, it should not be a major concern at this juncture as APH is likely to negotiate for more time to resolve the matter and rope in a new investor. The worst-case scenario for Muhibbah is a write-down of the c.RM300m due from APH, which would push Muhibbah into losses for FY11.

However, there is no impact on RNAV as the amount is reflected as liabilities. As we view a write-down as remote at this juncture, we maintain our forecasts and RM2.75 target price, which is pegged to an unchanged 10% discount to RNAV. Notwithstanding this negative news, we continue to rate Muhibbah a TRADING BUY and one of our top picks for the construction sector. The main potential re-rating catalyst is project awards. Share price weakness as a result of the development would be a buying opportunity.

Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:16/06/11

New Sunway entity expected to be listed - potential capitalisation RM3.5bil

The Star Online > Business
Thursday June 16, 2011

New Sunway entity expected to be listed - potential capitalisation RM3.5bil


PETALING JAYA: A new Sunway entity is expected to be listed on the Main Market of Bursa Malaysia in the third quarter of this year.

Sunway Group founder and chairman Tan Sri Jeffrey Cheah said the new entity would have a potential market capitalisation exceeding RM3.5bil, and be among the largest property and construction players in the region with a land bank of over 2,200 acres and total gross development value (GDV) of RM25bil.

About 90% of the land bank is in Malaysia, with the remainder in China, Singapore, Australia and India.

The new entity will merge the assets and liabilities of Sunway Holdings Bhd and Sunway City Bhd (SunCity) after shareholders of both companies agreed to the proposed deal at an EGM yesterday.

To recap, last November, a new company (newco) called Sunway Sdn Bhd proposed to take over Sunway and SunCity in a RM4.5bil deal via cash and share swaps.

Newco proposed to take over Sunway Holdings for RM2.60 a share and SunCity at RM5.10 a share, as well as buy Sunway Holdings and SunCity warrants at RM1.50 and RM1.29 respectively.

Under the deal, new shares in newco will be issued, valued at RM2.80 per share.

The takeover will be done via an 80% settlement in newco shares, and the remainder in cash, and Sunway Holdings and SunCity shareholders get free warrants on the basis of one warrant for every five newco shares.

After the merger, Cheah and the Government of Singapore Investment Corp (GIC) will have 45% and 12.5% stake respectively in Newco.

Presently, GIC has a 21% stake in SunCity.

Based on the financial results of Sunway and SunCity as at Dec 31, 2010, newco would have a paid-up share capital of RM1.29bil, assets valued at RM7bil and net debt of RM1.46bil.

Net assets per share in newco would be RM2.02.

A recent OSK Research report assigned a potential value of RM3.70 per share for newco, which the research firm said would be the fourth largest property stock by market capitalisation post listing.

Cheah said the merger would unlock synergistic benefits as better collaboration between the property development, design and construction arms could improve product quality and operational efficiency, and reduce costs.

“The larger entity also enables us to have scale and thus, bid for bigger and better projects. It can also optimise access to capital markets, command greater investor interest and lower financing costs through enhanced cash management,” he said.

Cheah said newco would have stronger focus on property projects in Singapore and China in the future.

In China, the Sunway group is presently involved in joint-venture property developments in Jiangyin City and the Sino-Singapore Tianjin Eco City.

Source/转贴/Extract/: The Star Online
Publish date:16/06/11

Oil rally that began with Libya ends with Europe

Oil rally that began with Libya ends with Europe
Oil tumbles nearly 5 percent on stronger dollar, concerns of wider European financial crisis

Chris Kahn, AP Energy Writer, On Wednesday June 15, 2011, 5:35 pm EDT
NEW YORK (AP) -- The financial crisis in Europe is sending oil prices back to where they were four months ago.

Oil prices fell more than 4 percent Wednesday on worries that a financial crisis in Greece could spread, with European banks getting burned if the country defaults on its debt. That sent the dollar surging against the euro, another negative for oil. And the Europe news comes on the heels of recent U.S. economic weakness and signs of declining demand for oil and gasoline.

"Things are very unsettled right now," Michael Lynch, president of Strategic Energy & Economic Research, said. Three years after the banking meltdown in the U.S., investors remain skittish about banks, Lynch said. "Just a whiff of a crisis, and everyone's ready to bolt."

Benchmark West Texas Intermediate crude plunged $4.56, or 4.6 percent, on Wednesday to settle at $94.81 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. That's the lowest level since late February, when a rebellion in Libya closed off that country's oil exports. Brent crude, which is used to price many international oil varieties, dropped $6.34, or 5.3 percent, to settle at $113.01 per barrel on the ICE Futures exchange.

Riots broke out in Greece on Wednesday over proposed austerity measures as the government struggles with a simmering debt crisis. Moody's ratings service said it may downgrade three big French banks that face losses on Greek bonds. And the warning worried investors that Greece's problems could spread to other financially troubled European countries like Spain, Portugal and Ireland.

Europe consumes about 18 percent of the world's oil, and ongoing economic troubles there could slow demand.

The euro lost 2 percent against the dollar. Oil tends to fall as the dollar rises because oil is priced in dollars and becomes more expensive for investors holding foreign currencies as the dollar gets stronger.

Oil began a steady rise in February from about $84 a barrel after unrest swept through Libya and shut in its 1.5 million barrels of daily oil exports. Anti-government protests broke out in other countries in the oil-rich region and concerns grew that shipments from the biggest oil exporter in the world, Saudi Arabia, could be disrupted.

Oil hit a three-month high of $113.90 in early May but fell 17 percent in five days as experts warned high energy costs were slowing the global economic recovery. Gasoline demand in the U.S. fell as pump prices hit $4 a gallon or more in a number of states.

Concerns about Europe's economy rippled through Wall Street on Wednesday. Stock markets in the U.S. gave back all of the gains they made Tuesday -- and then some. The Dow Jones Industrial Average tumbled nearly 179 points. The Standard and Poor's 500 and the Nasdaq dropped as well.

Oil traders ignored some good news. The Energy Information Administration reported that crude oil supplies in the U.S. shrank more than expected last week while wholesale gasoline demand increased. The EIA report showed that crude supplies fell by 3.4 million barrels. Analysts expected a decline of 1.9 million barrels.

The EIA said gasoline supplies increased last week, though much less than analysts expected. Gasoline demand increased slightly as well, but independent analyst Jim Ritterbusch said the U.S. continues to sit on a comfortable supply and relatively high pump prices should limit drivers' trips to the gas station.

"I just don't see demand improving for gasoline this summer on a sustained basis," Ritterbusch said.

Retail gasoline prices continued to fall, although they're still about $1 per gallon higher than a year ago. Gas fell almost a penny to a national average of $3.696 per gallon, according to AAA, Wright Express and Oil Price Information Service. A gallon of regular is 26.6 cents cheaper than it was last month.

Pump prices are expected to continue to drift lower this month, perhaps to a national average of $3.50 a gallon. Wednesday's big drop in oil, however, will not immediately be reflected at the pump since retail gas prices tend to trail oil by about two weeks.

In other Nymex trading for July contracts, heating oil fell 14.1 cents, or 4.5 percent, to settle at $2.9848 per gallon and gasoline futures lost 14.11 cents, or 4.6 percent, to settle at $2.9235 per gallon. Natural gas fell less than a penny to settle at $4.577 per 1,000 cubic feet.

Publish date:15/06/11

Is the Bull Market Over?

Is the Bull Market Over?
by Mark Hulbert
Wednesday, June 15, 2011

A look at four different sentiment measures suggests that more pain may await investors.

Did the bull market end on May 3?

That was when the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 12807.51 — which, at least so far, is the Dow's closing high for the rally that began in March 2009.

Contrarian analysis can't rule out that possibility. In fact, the behavior of various sentiment indexes in recent months is disturbingly similar to what has happened on the occasion of prior bull-market tops.

At least that is what I found after analyzing four different sentiment measures. I looked at the Investors Intelligence weekly survey of newsletter sentiment, data for which extended back to 1963. Specifically, I focused on the ratio of bullish advisors in this survey to the total of those who are either bullish or bearish.

I also analyzed the sentiment index maintained by Hulbert Financial Digest (HFD). It represents the average recommended equity exposure among a subset of short-term stock-market timers who are monitored by the HFD.

I sifted through the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey. As in the case of Investors Intelligence, I focused on the ratio of bullish responses in the AAII survey to the total of those who reported that they are either bullish or bearish.

Finally, I focused on the Chicago Board Options Exchange's Market Volatility Index, or VIX.

I analyzed how each of these four sentiment indicators behaved on the occasion of past bull-market tops, using the precise definition employed by Ned Davis Research, the institutional research firm. I found that sentiment is remarkably correlated with the stock market.

In fact, in nearly half the cases studied, bullish sentiment peaked at almost the same time as the market -- within fewer than five trading sessions before or after. It rarely has peaked more than a month or two before or after the top.

Because of this close correlation, sentiment can be used as a reality check on whether a market top has indeed been registered. If more than a few months separate the peak in sentiment and the date of the closing high up until that point, for example, chances are that the final top has not been seen. Another sign that the top has not yet been registered: Sentiment has peaked at much lower levels than those that prevailed at prior tops.

Unfortunately, on both grounds it's hard to rule out the suspicion that the May 3 top could be the end of the bull market.

According to the Investors Intelligence data, sentiment peaked on April 5, 28 days prior to the exact day of the May 3 high. On April 5, the ratio of bullish advisors to those who were either bullish or bearish came in at 78.5%, higher than the average level of 76.2% that stood on the occasion of prior bull-market tops.

According to the HFD survey, sentiment peaked on May 3, the very day of the market's top. The average exposure level then stood at 67.2%, versus an average of 79.6% from prior market tops. According to the AAII survey, sentiment peaked on Dec. 23 of last year, or more than four months prior to May 3. The ratio of bullish responses in the Dec. 23 survey to those indicating that they were either bullish or bearish stood at 79.4%, higher than the 78.7% average from prior tops. According to the VIX, investor optimism reached its apogee on April 28, five days prior to the day of the top. The VIX on April 28 closed at 14.62, which is less than the 15.51 average from prior bull-market tops.

Notice that the extreme levels of investor optimism recently reported by the various sentiment indexes are, in three out of the four cases studied, actually higher than the averages seen at prior bull-market tops. Notice also that, in three out of the four cases, the sentiment peak came within only a few days of the market's top.

Can contrarian-oriented traders, nevertheless, find comfort in the equity fund flow data? You may recall that those flows provided one of the strongest contrarian-based supports for this bull market in 2009 and 2010, as mutual-fund investors in both of those years pulled more money out of domestic equity funds and exchange-traded funds than they put back in.

This year, however, the situation has changed. TrimTabs Investment Research estimates that, following net outflows of $46.9 billion and $51.9 billion in 2009 and 2010, respectively, this year (through June 8) there has been a net inflow totaling $28.8 billion. So we no longer have the strong wall of worry that the bull market last year was able to climb.

To be sure, this year's inflows are not as large as those seen at prior bull-market tops. So the flow data are not, in themselves, sending any contrarian-based alarm bells. But, by the same token, those data no longer are providing the strongly bullish foundation that they were in each of the past two years.

The bottom line? The sentiment data no longer provide strong contrarian support for a bull market. And a number of the sentiment indexes are, or very close to, flashing outright sell signals.

Publish date:15/06/11


Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:13/06/11

Chinese property outlook downgraded due to excessive leverage by developers

Chinese property outlook downgraded due to excessive leverage by developers
04:47 AM Jun 16, 2011
HONG KONG - Standard & Poor's (S&P) ratings agency lowered its outlook on China's red-hot property market to negative from stable, citing increasingly challenging credit conditions due to regulatory tightening and leverage concerns.

China's property prices are expected to fall by 10 per cent over the next 12 months, with a 20-30 per cent dip less likely, S&P said.

It also noted that neighbouring Hong Kong might also see a sharp correction if interest rates rise too quickly.

"For the next 6 to 12 months, we feel that there are heightened risks (in China) because the leverage has really gone up substantially," S&P analyst Mr Bei Fu told a news conference.

"Given that (developers') leverage is already high, we really need to see their sales performance on track to maintain their current credit profile," Mr Fu said. "But right now, we feel our confidence over the market outlook on the effect on their sales is a heightened risk."

S&P's downgrade had a limited impact on Chinese property stocks, with the Shanghai property index ending down 0.26 per cent.

Hong Kong-listed China Overseas Land, the country's largest developer by market cap, fell 1.4 percent.

Chinese property developers have been actively issuing bonds abroad, tapping the high-yielding US dollar bond markets in Hong Kong, as they face problems raising money at home. The Chinese government is clamping down on property lending.

Chinese companies, many being developers, have accounted for more than a third of the $48 billion (S$59.3 billion) in G3 currency issuance from Asia, excluding Japan and Australia, so far in 2011, with high-yield credits at the forefront of that action.

"Offshore debt issuance and an increase in borrowing in anticipation of this downturn has actually weakened their capital structure," said Mr Christopher Lee, a director at S&P.

"If sales do not play up as planned, that means they will be under a lot of pressure in terms of cash flows and the ability to service some of their debt," said Mr Lee.

Some of the companies that face bigger refinancing risks included Glorious Property, Coastal Greenland and Shanghai Zhenda S&P analysts said.

Property prices in China doubled over the past five years in first-tier cities and a series of harsh market-cooling measures have been unveiled. These aim to restricti the number of apartments citizens can buy, raise the level of downpayments and they introduced a property tax.

Analysts said a hard landing in China's economy would be a huge risk for the sector.

"If the Chinese government continues to be very aggressive to fight inflation and inflation stubbornly remains high, it will affect the home buyers' sentiment," said Mr Wee Liat Lee, an analyst at Samsung Securities.

China, like many Asian countries, faces the threat of a property bubble, with S&P analysts saying implementation of government measures was key to stemming sharp price rises.

"Right now it's more of an implementation of what has been announced, rather than pushing out new policies," said Mr Fu.

"If the current policies have been strictly implemented in tier 1, 2 and 3 cities, that's very severe already," he added. Reuters

Source/转贴/Extract/: TODAYonline
Publish date:16/06/11

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

柏南克:勿迫政府砍預算 不提高舉債上限動搖市場

柏南克:勿迫政府砍預算 不提高舉債上限動搖市場





Source/转贴/Extract/: Oriental Daily
Publish date:16/06/11

Singapore Press Holdings: Upgrade to BUY; awaiting capital deployment

Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) recently bid S$917m for a 99-year white site beside Jurong East MRT station and came just 5.4% below the top bid. We think management is committed to expanding their retail landlord business and could be interested in three GLS sites in 2H11, or TripleOne and 313@Somerset which are likely to come onto the market. We visited Clementi Mall and found that it has opened for operations smoothly with good foot traffic. Our S$4.32 fair value indicates an upside of 13.4% against the current price of S$3.81. Also, we think the downside is limited by an attractive dividend yield of 7.1%, which is underpinned by a core newspaper segment yielding solid recurrent cash. Upgrade SPH to BUY with a fair value estimate of S$4.32.

Almost got the Jurong Gateway site... A consortium, made up of Singapore Press Holdings (SPH) and United Engineers Limited, recently bid S$917m for a site beside Jurong East MRT station, and only 5.4% below the winning bid. This outcome was similar to a Bedok site auction in Sep 10. We think these strong tenders from SPH underline its desire to expand the retail landlord business. As of 2Q11, we estimate SPH to have a sizeable acquisition war-chest of S$1,265m, assuming a net gearing ceiling of 70%.

…but more GLS auctions to come. We think there are three sites in the 2H11 GLS supply that could be of interest to SPH. The commercial site beside Paya Lebar MRT, with a large GFA of 86,940 sqm, could have a significant retail component after setting aside the minimum office and hotel requirements. In addition, the commercial site beside Fernvale LRT could house a retail development with 26,400 sqm GFA - around the size of Clementi Mall. There is also a white site on the reserve list beside Novena MRT with potentially 19,400 sqm retail GFA after taking out the estimated minimum hotel requirement.

TripleOne and 313@Somerset potential targets? Market talk is that TripleOne Somerset is on the market for about S$1.2b ($2,132 psf NLA) and that 313@Somerset could be for sale as well. These may be interesting targets for SPH who could derive operational synergies between managing Paragon and any one of these assets, particularly 313@Somerset. Given the sizes of these assets, however, it is more likely for SPH to consider acquiring a stake or participating in a joint venture instead of acquiring these assets wholly.

Successful execution at Clementi Mall. Clementi Mall has opened for operations smoothly. The mall is fully leased with an average monthly rent of S$14 psf. Clementi Mall highlights SPH’s retail management capabilities in a suburban location and the market would likely view similar acquisitions favorably. We forecast annual revenue at around S$30m from Clementi Mall after 4Q11.

Upgrade to BUY on valuation. The current price of S$3.81 indicates an upside of 13.4% against our S$4.32 fair value. In addition, the downside is limited by an attractive dividend yield of 7.1%, which is underpinned by a core newspaper segment yielding solid recurrent cash. Look for accretive acquisitions to be positive catalysts in FY11-12. We are upgrading SPH to BUY with a fair value estimate of S$4.32.

Source/转贴/Extract/:OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:15/06/11


Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:08/06/11

Neptune Orient announces $1.91b of ship orders, upgrades

Neptune Orient Lines, Southeast Asia’s biggest container-shipping line, announced $1.54 billion in ship orders and upgrades as it adds larger vessels to pare operating costs on European and trans-Pacific routes.

The company ordered 10 ships, able to carry 14,000 containers each, from Hyundai Samho Heavy Industries Co. and two with capacities of 9,200 from Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering Co., it said in a statement today. The Singapore- based shipping line also enlarged 10 ships already on order at Daewoo to 9,200 boxes from 8,400, it said.

The 22 vessels, due to be delivered in 2013 and 2014, will replace less fuel-efficient ships and allow unit APL to add capacity as China boosts exports of auto parts and furniture to the U.S. and Europe. A.P. Moeller-Maersk A/S in February ordered as many as 30 18,000-container vessels, the world’s largest, from Daewoo as shipping lines work to pare fuel usage following an 51% jump in prices in the past year.

Neptune Orient will use the 14,000-container ships, which will be its largest, on Asia-Europe routes, it said. The smaller vessels likely will be deployed on trans-Pacific services, it said.

The company, which has about 150 vessels, fell 5% to $1.53 in Singapore trading today, the biggest decline on the Straits Times Index. It has dropped 30% this year, the worst performance on the benchmark.

The shipping line has signed letters of intent for the orders, which still are subject to final agreements, it said.

The price of 380 Centistoke Bunker Fuel, used by ships, was little changed at US$668.50 a ton in Singapore trading today, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. It was US$441.50 a year ago.

Publish date:15/06/11


Created 06/15/2011 - 19:25



法國興業銀行(Societe Generale)或瑞士銀行(UBS)皆預估,中國本月通膨將攀抵6%。

中國政府自最近一次的4月升息迄今,已暫停升息腳步10週,跌破巴克萊資本(Barclays Capital)等市場分析師眼鏡。在美國失業率破9%,亞洲地區製造業降溫之際,北京政府官員可能正在評估全球成長轉疲跡象。






摩根大通(JP Morgan Chase)中國區全球市場董事長李晶指出,儘管如此,在通膨觸頂跡象明朗前,陸股反彈走勢恐難持續。極端氣候助長糧價漲勢,恐延後通膨降溫。





世界銀行(World Bank)預估中國今年經濟成長9.3%,所創造的工作機會料有助政府維持社會穩定。




身價億萬的投資名人索羅斯(George Soros)指出,中國已錯失抑制通膨的機會,現在恐面臨硬著陸的風險。









世界銀行(World Bank)上週下修今年全球成長預估,從1月的3.3%調降至3.2%。


索羅斯為資產規模約280億美元的索羅斯基金管理公司(Soros Fund Management LLC)董事長,他最為人津津樂道的事蹟,當屬1992年歐元尚未上路前,據傳他成功押注英國將無法保住英鎊在當時歐洲匯率體系的地位,藉此海撈10億美元。


摩根士丹利亞洲非執行主席羅奇(Stephen Roach)說,全球面臨數年的“成長恐慌”,因為復甦依然疲弱不堪,難以緩衝週期性衝擊。







羅奇說他不同意他的朋友魯比尼的觀點。魯比尼是Roubini Global Economics主席,他認為中國在2013年後面臨經濟下滑,因為不良貸款和投資導致產能過剩。






加拿大豐業銀行旗下的投資銀行子公司Scotia Capital駐香港高級貨幣策略師Sacha Tihanyi說:“內地利率上升將增強人民幣的吸引力,增加人民幣的升值壓力。”




得州沃思堡顧問公司Corriente Advisors的創始人哈特就在使用看跌期權作空人民幣。持有看跌期權合約的投資者有權(但沒有義務)在合約有效期內按執行價賣出一種貨幣。

擔心人民幣未來走勢的不只哈特一人。康州斯坦福諮詢公司Tempus Advisors的首席執行員Edward Grebeck表示,人民幣被低估的說法可能將成為歷史了。



長期以來,掌管Kynikos Associates LP的空頭投資者James Chanos和Eclectica資產管理公司的Hugh Hendry一直擔心中國過於火熱的房地產市場。



本月早些時候曾去中國訪問的Daniel J.Arbess認為,哈特低估了了中國的出口導向型經濟。不過他也不無憂慮,現在正使用看跌期權對他從2009年開始持有的人民幣頭寸進行對衝操作。Arbess負責管理Perella Weinberg Partners LP旗下的規模30億美元的Xerion基金。



來自Corriente Advisors一位代表拒絕發表評論。但哈特在上個月的紐約Sohn投資大會上指出,中國貨幣供應增長強勁、嚴重依賴房地產、以及政府對信貸的嚴格控制都是讓人擔心的問題。一旦出現危機,外資可能會馬上撤離中國。如果經濟出現問題,中國政府可能傾向於通過本幣貶值來促進貿易。







Publish date:15/06/11


Created 06/15/2011 - 18:30


























● 製造領域在國內外需求可期下,下半年預計按年增長6.4%,全年則放慢步伐至5.7%按年增幅。

● 服務領域因貿易活動、業務與消費力加強,下半年料按年成長5.9%,全年或按年成長5.7%。

● 建築活動在經濟轉型計劃養精蓄銳下,下半年或按年成長5%,全年可能放緩至4.8%按年漲幅。

● 農業生產受棕油生產復甦推動,下半年估計按年走強4.1%,全年預計按年成長2.9%。

● 礦物生產在原油與液化天燃氣恢復活力下,下半年有望按年走高2.4%,全年或按年走強0.7%。















Publish date:15/06/11

Scrip dividends: win some, lose some

Business Times - 15 Jun 2011

Hock Lock Siew
Scrip dividends: win some, lose some


SCRIP dividend schemes have proven to be a 'god-send' for Singapore banks, especially during the last financial crisis as the issue of shares in place of cash in dividend payouts helped shore up capital, bolstering the banks' balance sheets. And the success of such schemes continues to perpetuate past the recessionary era, with more listed companies in other industries jumping on the bandwagon as well.

As an example of the success, OCBC Bank saw in its latest scrip dividend scheme a healthy shareholder participation rate of more than 80 per cent.

However, is the advent of such schemes more of a one-sided benefit taken at the expense of shareholders or do the tables turn on the issuers at some point?

For starters, a scrip dividend is typically paid out in the form of new shares from the company, though a shareholder reserves the right to choose between a cash dividend or one in the form of shares.

From the shareholders' point of you, if all of them take part in a company's scrip dividend scheme - admittedly an unlikely scenario - the net effect is like the company having just declared a bonus issue and effectively no one would have received a dividend.

And for shareholders who opt for the cash option, they would have effectively 'sold' off part of their ownership in exchange for cash and face ownership dilution as a result of the issue of new shares to those who opted for the scrip option.

Having said that, it is not all bad for shareholders.

For one thing, scrip dividends are usually issued at a discount. Taking the local banks, for example, they usually issue scrip dividends at a 5 per cent to 10 per cent discount to a VWAP (volume-weighted average price).

If need be, shareholders who opt for the scheme can arbitrage on the price difference between the discounted and market rate if they choose to pocket hard cash, which at times may amount to more than the value of the said cash dividend.

More importantly, with the scrip dividend scheme in place, banks and other issuers do not need to slash dividend payouts or resort to undertaking an untimely share placement in a downturn and antagonise shareholders who look forward to dividends in times of financial turmoil.

Contrary to popular belief, not all issuers benefit from issuing scrip. For the local banks, the scrip dividend scheme was borne out of crisis when the need for higher capital buffers was paramount.

However, with all three banks now possessing high capital buffers, raising capital is not so much of a necessity anymore. In fact, continuing to issue scrip dividends to raise capital will have the effect of lowering a bank's return on equity, consequently weighing on overall valuations.

Since the average shareholder and the issuer both stand to lose in certain aspects, who is the real beneficiary of this clever 'dividend invention'?

Probably the majority shareholders. Majority shareholders can use scrip dividend schemes to raise and consolidate their overall stake in the company cost-efficiently.

Typically, in the event a majority shareholder plans to raise his stake in a company, he would have to purchase shares from the open market, which usually tends to trigger a spike in share price.

However with scrip dividend schemes, a majority shareholder can up his stake in the company at a discount, and more importantly at the issuer's expense, as there would always be some minority shareholders who would opt for a cash dividend and face dilutive effects to ownership.

Furthermore, with scrip dividend exercises taking place so frequently nowadays, majority shareholders are better able to avoid the costly process of going to the open market to increase their stake as often as previously required.

This brings us to the point that in life there will always be some winners and some losers in every situation, and sometimes one has to discern and make the best of each situation presented instead of mulling over the gains of others.

Publish date:15/06/11

胡立阳香港股神曹仁超:2319点牢不可破 入场正当时

胡立阳香港股神曹仁超:2319点牢不可破 入场正当时
2011年06月12日 11:27


《红周刊》记者 谢长艳


道指入眠 A股起床







曹仁超:上证指数[2716.80 -0.49%]由2010年11月11日3186点回落至最近2700点,跌幅近15%,此乃牛市二期正常现象。牛市一期由2008年11月开始,高点在3478点,然后回落到2319点结束。牛市二期低点不会低于牛市第一期低点即2319点,牛市一期高点迟早会被穿越。牛市二期通常维持两年,即2011年和2012年应该仍是牛市二期。经过长期上上落落后,估计到2013年才进入牛市三期。










投资为主 减少投机







Source/转贴/Extract/: 凤凰网
Publish date:12/06/11

SGX Commentary (Limtan)

􀁺 At $7.33, SGX is at its lowest since Jun ’10 and 27.5% off it 2010 peak of $10.12 reached just before the announcement of the proposal to acquire / merge with ASX in Oct ’10.

􀁺 This could be attributed to a confluence of factors, both internal (s-chip scandals) and external (economic slowdown, Euro crisis).

􀁺 The resultant weak market sentiment caused recent IPOs (Hutchison Port) to perform dismally, as too trading volume.

􀁺 April and May (40 trading sessions) saw volume aggregating $60.29 bln, down 14.7% from the same period last year. The daily average of $1507.34 mln was also 10% lower than the Mar ’11 quarter’s $1679 mln ($104.1 bln total over 62 days), when SGX posted $77.34 mln underlying profit, excluding the expenses related to the ASX exercise (reported profit was $67.0 mln).

􀁺 The first 9 trading days this month however showed a 7.7% increase y-o-y.

􀁺 Trading interest on GlobalQuote has significantly waned, totaling only $66.43 mln in May or $3.3 mln a day! Nov ’10, first full month of the board, saw $802 mln worth of business or $38 mln a day.

􀁺 None of the above is however expected to jeopardize SGX’s final dividend payout when result for ye Jun ’11 re released in early August. We expect unchanged 12 cents variable dividend, which has been the case for the last 2 consecutive fiscal years, on top of the 4 cents quarterly rate..

􀁺 Total for ye Jun ’11 would therefore be 28 cents a share costing just under $300 mln (vs 27 cents for ye Jun ’10), for a 3.8% yield. This should provide strong support for SGX’s share price.

􀁺 Short of new initiatives that could boost trading and hence help the company break out of the $70-80 mln quarterly profit as for the last 6 quarters, we do not expect SGX to be in a position to hike the base dividend rate as it did for 5 straight fiscal years till now.

􀁺 As such, HOLD remains appropriate.

Source/转贴/Extract/: limtan
Publish date:15/06/11

中国上调存准引起负面情绪 海指回跌持平










  来宝集团跌1分报1.96元。集团献议每股0.50澳元或1亿3260万澳元买下澳大利亚钢铁商Territory Resources,较南非煤矿商Exxaro最近的献议价高出9%。星展银行研究建议“买入”,目标价为2.60元。

Source/转贴/Extract/: 联合早报
Publish date:15/06/11

S-chips in the doldrums

S-chips in the doldrums
by Ryan Huang Wenwu
04:47 AM Jun 15, 2011
SINGAPORE - The share prices of Singapore-listed Chinese companies continue to languish as the S-chips, as they are commonly called, are undermined by scandal after scandal.

Just last week, mainboard-listed China Milk Products Group became the latest to join the list of companies whose shares have been suspended while they are being investigated for accounting irregularities.

The FT ST China Index, which tracks Chinese companies listed in Singapore, hit new lows in recent weeks, underperforming the wider market. From the start of the year, it is down about 11.1 per cent, compared to the 4.2-per-cent decline in the benchmark Straits Times Index.

Besides the hit to the reputation of S-chips as a group from the likes of China Milk, there are also broader forces at play.

Mr Terence Wong, co-head of research at brokerage DMG, said: "There was a confluence of factors. One of the key ones was that if you look at the economy or the macro factors, things have not been going all that smoothly this year. And when there is uncertainty, there is typically a flight to quality. So, in such cases, the blue chips will do better than the small caps where the S-chips are predominantly under."

Still, some market watchers say there are gems among the S-chips and current values may present an investment opportunity.

According to DMG, some of the S-chips it is bullish on include those in high growth sectors - such as agriculture and environment - and with credible management and track records. The brokerage has Buy ratings on vegetable processor China Minzhong and vaccine producer China Animal Healthcare.

The increased scrutiny over S-chips is also expected to weed out the riskier counters.

SIAS Research analyst Liu Jinshu said: "In this environment of heightened scrutiny, the fact that they still managed to obtain a clean audit opinion from the auditors suggests that some of these S-chips are still healthy and their financial statements are still accurate."

Source/转贴/Extract/: TODAYonline
Publish date:15/06/11
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
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