Source/转贴/Extract/: MIIF
Publish date:23/02/11
Saturday, February 26, 2011
受燃油價上漲影響馬航淨利挫半至2.3億
February 25, 2011 21:36
受燃油價上漲影響
馬航淨利挫半至2.3億
（吉隆坡25日訊）客流量雖增加，但因受燃油價格走勢衝擊，馬航（MAS，3786，主要板貿易） 2010財年營業額雖增長，但淨利卻按年下挫55%或2億8557萬令吉，報2億3447萬令吉。
馬航董事經理兼總執行長東姑拿督阿茲米指出，第四季營運盈利則按年增加1億800萬令吉。
“在去年公司成功在擴大運能的同時，亦取得5%回酬，公司的每公里座位（ASK）增加6%至18.8仙 ，客流量也增加10%，載客率從前一年的76.5%增加至77.4%”
他今日在馬航財報匯報會上，發表上述。；列席者包括公司總財務長莫哈末阿茲哈。
公司全年營業額按年增加17%至135億8761萬令吉。
客流量增15%
第四季營業額達36億7314萬令吉，按年增幅8%；第四季淨利則滑65%至2億2592萬令吉。
他說，09年因燃油價格瞬間飆升，公司護盤有利，因此淨利得以推高，但2010年油價揚勢較緩和，影響淨利增幅。
他指出，公司今年將維持25%護盤比例，平均每桶燃油護盤價為88美元（約269令吉）。
“不過，營運盈利才是反映公司營運狀況的最佳指標，公司從09財年起營運盈利擺幅（Profit swing）介于8億7900萬令吉，這意味著公司在運量和回酬方面均取得健康成長。”
他說，隨著今年將有4架A737-800型號飛機和5架A330-300型號飛機將陸續運達，預計將可進一步提高馬航于區域的競爭力，公司去年的客流量增幅達15%，超越區域其他航空業者。
不排除上調燃油附加費
原油價格漲勢不休，馬航表明將密切關注走勢，不排除有必要時上調燃油附加費。
阿茲米指出，若只是短期波動或漲幅不大，公司將不會調高燃油附加費，但若留意到油價已在穩定在較高水平，公司將從長計議。
“至于漲幅多大，仍胥視到時的原油價格走勢而定。”
馬航護盤的是西德州原油（WTI Cushing） ，截至今日7時30分，西德州原油現價每桶報95.78美元（約292令吉），公司護盤價格為每桶88美元。
詢及近期西亞國家動當局勢會否影響馬航客流量時，他說，馬航未有巴林、突尼西亞和埃及航線，因營運情況未受衝擊。
但他坦言，今年首季因歐美經濟復甦充滿不明朗，將影響公司營業額表現。
“公司在未來數年將把擴展主力放在亞太市場，透過增加飛機和航線，取得更大市場分額。”
Source/转贴/Extract/: 中國報
Publish date:25/02/11
受燃油價上漲影響
馬航淨利挫半至2.3億
（吉隆坡25日訊）客流量雖增加，但因受燃油價格走勢衝擊，馬航（MAS，3786，主要板貿易） 2010財年營業額雖增長，但淨利卻按年下挫55%或2億8557萬令吉，報2億3447萬令吉。
馬航董事經理兼總執行長東姑拿督阿茲米指出，第四季營運盈利則按年增加1億800萬令吉。
“在去年公司成功在擴大運能的同時，亦取得5%回酬，公司的每公里座位（ASK）增加6%至18.8仙 ，客流量也增加10%，載客率從前一年的76.5%增加至77.4%”
他今日在馬航財報匯報會上，發表上述。；列席者包括公司總財務長莫哈末阿茲哈。
公司全年營業額按年增加17%至135億8761萬令吉。
客流量增15%
第四季營業額達36億7314萬令吉，按年增幅8%；第四季淨利則滑65%至2億2592萬令吉。
他說，09年因燃油價格瞬間飆升，公司護盤有利，因此淨利得以推高，但2010年油價揚勢較緩和，影響淨利增幅。
他指出，公司今年將維持25%護盤比例，平均每桶燃油護盤價為88美元（約269令吉）。
“不過，營運盈利才是反映公司營運狀況的最佳指標，公司從09財年起營運盈利擺幅（Profit swing）介于8億7900萬令吉，這意味著公司在運量和回酬方面均取得健康成長。”
他說，隨著今年將有4架A737-800型號飛機和5架A330-300型號飛機將陸續運達，預計將可進一步提高馬航于區域的競爭力，公司去年的客流量增幅達15%，超越區域其他航空業者。
不排除上調燃油附加費
原油價格漲勢不休，馬航表明將密切關注走勢，不排除有必要時上調燃油附加費。
阿茲米指出，若只是短期波動或漲幅不大，公司將不會調高燃油附加費，但若留意到油價已在穩定在較高水平，公司將從長計議。
“至于漲幅多大，仍胥視到時的原油價格走勢而定。”
馬航護盤的是西德州原油（WTI Cushing） ，截至今日7時30分，西德州原油現價每桶報95.78美元（約292令吉），公司護盤價格為每桶88美元。
詢及近期西亞國家動當局勢會否影響馬航客流量時，他說，馬航未有巴林、突尼西亞和埃及航線，因營運情況未受衝擊。
但他坦言，今年首季因歐美經濟復甦充滿不明朗，將影響公司營業額表現。
“公司在未來數年將把擴展主力放在亞太市場，透過增加飛機和航線，取得更大市場分額。”
Source/转贴/Extract/: 中國報
Publish date:25/02/11
油價飆漲危機四伏‧供油小國利比亞‧為何攪亂全世界
Created 02/25/2011 - 19:15
紐約時報報導，利比亞石油產量雖然不到全球產量百分之二，但品質特高，重要性不能以產量衡量。因此儘管全球最大油國沙地阿拉伯宣佈隨時可增產彌補利比亞這個“小”缺口，市場仍然不安，國際油價連日飆漲。
專家說，利比亞日產160萬桶原油，超過九成是含硫量低的輕原油，較容易提煉成汽油、柴油、煤油、噴射燃油，且歐洲和亞洲許多煉油廠設備只能提煉輕原油，無法處理含硫量高的重原油，對利比亞原油倚賴特重。
重原油加重成本
沙地阿拉伯表示，沙國有每日400萬桶的備用產量，隨時能投入生產彌補利比亞的減產。但沙國這些備用產量多半是重原油，對歐洲而言，運輸提煉成本都比輕原油高。華府“能源政策研究基金”主任戈德斯坦表示，“質比量重要”。
利比亞若持續動盪，歐洲煉油廠將被迫向阿爾及利亞和尼日利亞購買輕原油，美國也向這兩國買油，因此可能會出現輕原油爭奪戰。上次輕原油供不應求是在2007和2008年初，導至全球油價衝破每桶140美元，當時原因是需求勁增而非突然缺貨。
相較於歐洲，美國煉油廠設備能夠處理屬於重原油的委內瑞拉和墨西哥原油，加上利比亞輕原油八成五銷往歐洲，因此利比亞減產對歐洲的影響超過美國，這也是做為美國油價基準的西德州原油比做為歐洲油價基準的北海布侖特原油低約10美元的主因。
沙國增產
油價120美元止步
中東北非政局動盪以來，投資人最感擔心的事在週四終於出現：陷入混亂的利比亞原油生產與出口受阻，油價急漲，倫敦布蘭特油價一度逼近每桶120美元。
眼看情勢緊急，石油大國沙地阿拉伯承諾會彌補利比亞供油缺口，才使油價漲勢趨緩。
週四國際油價大幅震盪，有報導指出利比亞原油生產受阻，日產量減少50萬桶至100萬桶。該國原本日產量是160萬桶。
受此影響，國際油價稍早一路飆高，倫敦北海布蘭特原油一度高到119.79美元，是29個月最高。紐約西德州中級原油也達到103美元。
油價或飆至220美元
日本野村的分析師警告，如果利比亞與阿爾及利亞產油受阻，油價可能飆到每桶220美元。
不過，稍後全球最大原油出口國沙地阿拉伯官員表示，沙國、石油輸出國家組織（OPEC）與西非產油國願意增產原油，彌補任何可能出現的供油缺口，甚至連原油品質都一樣。
受此支撐，油價有所回跌，倫敦北海布蘭原油回跌至114美元，不過仍較週三揚7.5%。
至於一向與油價同步的金價週四也告揚升，在7週高檔附近，為每安士1千413美元左右。
沙地阿拉伯表示，OPEC中的西非國家可把原出口亞洲的原油轉為供應歐洲。OPEC中的西非國家為尼日利亞與安哥拉。
專家指出，OPEC官方參考一籃油價目前已突破每桶100美元，在週三達105.88美元。OPEC的目標是把此一官方參考油價維持在每桶80到100美元之前，而相信在此一區間代表原油供需平衡。如今該油價超越此一水平，OPEC有責任調節供應。
在此同時，雖然國際原油現貨與近期期貨價走高，遠期期貨卻是走低，紐約商品交易所2013年5月西德州中級原油期貨過去兩天來非但沒有上揚，反而還下跌0.6%，顯示投資人大都把當前的中東北非地域風險視為短期因素。
若逾120美元
恐搞垮美復甦
華爾街日報報導，若油價進一步上漲，然後停留在那個高檔一段時間，則美國經濟復甦就有翻車之虞。德意志銀行週四表示，油價漲至每桶120美元以上，將就是全球經濟成長的反折點。
報導指出，大部份專家推估油價最少將漲至每桶120美元，並停留在那個水平，威脅美國經濟復甦。
德意志銀行在1份固定收益研究報告中說：“每桶120美元就是代表石油佔全球GDP比重升至5.5%以上水平，歷史上，這就代表全球成長已受到壓力。”
加州大學聖地牙哥校區經濟學者漢米爾頓（James Hamilton）表示，能源價格上漲對經濟構成的最大風險，來自於消費者所受到的衝擊。油價上漲意味通膨將升高，促使消費者撙節支出。
漢氏強調，美國消費者1年用掉約1千400億加侖汽油，所以零售汽油價格過去3個月來每加侖漲約0.3美元，顯著排擠消費者支出，對復甦是一大拖累。
受中東動亂影響，國際油價近來連連上揚，紐約油價已站上100美元，是從金融危機之前以來高價。
倫敦油價週四也逼近120美元是2008年8月22日來高點。
今年來，油價已上漲約7.35%，汽油期貨上漲約10.7%。
報導指出，現在最大的未知數，是中東及北非動盪是否會導致長時期的產量減少及輸運失序，這可能將油價推向更高，並將美國及其他國家的經濟打回衰退。1973年石油禁運及1979伊朗革命所引發的供給驅動型油市震撼，都曾將美國經濟打入衰退。
不過美國失業率居高不下、製造業有相當產能仍閒置、民眾或市場通膨預期心理尚未轉強等，將有助降低聯儲局（Fed）因油價上漲而提前升息可能性。
油暴將吃掉企業獲利20%
中東情勢緊張，觸發倫敦布蘭特油價已飆破每桶120美元，英仕曼集團GLG新興市場策略聯席主管Karim Abdel-Motaal預估，今年國際油價站穩100美元恐是常態，整體企業獲利將被吃掉10%至20%，外資正密切關注。
因油價飆漲，三大機構賣超未減，合計賣超85.65億元，比前日的賣超51億元還高。
國際油價飆漲，已對全球經濟復甦大添疑慮，航空業就是最典型例子。麥格理資本證券指出，燃油成本約佔台灣航空業總營運成本的40%至50%，且大多沒有避險，麥格理證券將2011與2012年油價預估值分別調升至95.1、106.2美元，因應對航空雙雄2011、2012年獲利，各調降15%、25%。
國際油價持續向上攀升，新興市場所面臨的輸入性通膨風險高不可攀，Karim Abdel-Motaal表示，以中國為首的新興市場國家未來將投入更多預算在補貼糧價等民生物品上，對財政狀況相對不穩定的國家來說，挑戰才剛開始。
油市嚴峻更勝2008年
利比亞的動亂與供油受阻，嚴重暴露石油輸出國家組織（OPEC）供油結構的脆弱，即使OPEC決定增產，短期內油價仍有可能衝到每桶150美元以上，更別談OPEC最大產油國沙地阿拉伯還可能遭到動亂波及。
中東北非（MENA）的混亂局勢使得國際油價近來漲勢迅如奔馬，勾起世人對2008年7月國際油價暴漲到每桶147美元的回憶。然而比較現今與當年局勢，無論是在原油供應或地域風險上，眼前情況更較當年嚴峻。
2008年上半油價急漲主因在於美元下跌與市場掀起投機炒作熱潮，因此儘管國際間要求OPEC增產原油以壓抑油價的聲浪高張，OPEC卻是以油價上漲與供應無關為由堅持拒絕增產。此外，OPEC當時幾乎是以全產能在產油，增產能力只有1日100萬桶，OPEC必須保留做為供油遭遇緊急情況時的緩衝。
再看現今情況，儘管OPEC增產能力已增到1日500萬桶左右，但其中有370到400萬桶都是由沙國擁有。雖然光靠沙國即可彌補利比亞（原油日產量估為160萬桶），與產油也面臨威脅的阿爾及利亞（原油日產量估為180萬桶）的供油短缺，但是也代表OPEC的增產能力只剩1日160萬桶左右，實在難以再應付其他可能發生的供油中斷風險，這也正是投資人所擔心的。
此外，產油國要進行增產，至少需要1個月的準備時間，再加上利比亞與阿爾及利亞的原油品質優於沙國，煉油成本相對較低，這些條件都將繼續推動油價上漲。
從地域風險來看，當前情況更是較2008年時緊張。當年的中東風險也就不過是伊朗的核子問題，是在西方國家可控制的範圍內，然而現今卻是利比亞這位被美國前總統里根稱為瘋狗的卡達菲，誰也無法預期他在做最後一搏時會有甚麼動作。
華爾街日報就指出，利比亞擁有大批可製造化學武器的原料，包括芥子氣以及飛毛腿飛彈，令美國政府大為擔心，不知卡達菲面對國內動亂是否會使用。這樣的風險也使英國首相卡梅倫日前敦促國際間考慮對格達費採取行動。
另一個令投資人擔心的地域風險是沙國政局可能也會受影響。在茉莉花革命浪潮下，沙國已出現抗議行動，迫使沙國當局大手筆推出福利措施極力安撫。
世人最感憂慮的是沙國產油是否也會受到威脅，若是供油受阻，OPEC供油體系也就等於崩潰。若真如此，後果難以想像。
這波石油危機詭譎
紐約知名智庫外交關係協會（CFR）資深研究員李維（Michael Levi）於金融時報撰文表示，在全新的全球化經濟環境下，這波石油危機可說無從預測，因此眼前更應及早建立短期危機處理機制。
近來從埃及、利比亞延燒至中東等石油產地的政治動亂，已讓國際油價衝破每桶100美元關卡，且短期內見不到穩定跡象。這波政治動亂是否繼續蔓延至沙地阿拉伯等石油重鎮，進而爆發最新石油危機已成為全球焦點，而各國也出現提高國內石油產量及加速發展替代能源的聲浪。
李維對此表示，提高石油自給率與發展替代能源在長遠的未來確實有助各國抵擋油價衝擊，但這兩項做法皆不是幾年內就能見效，因此眼前各國還需先確立3項危機處理機制才能防止衝擊加劇。
第一、各國之間必須建立一致的石油儲備策略。李維表示，各國的石油儲備量能在石油供應量銳減或輸油路線中斷時提供緩衝空間，藉由釋放庫存來紓解市場壓力。問題是，目前各國對於釋放庫存的時間點定義模糊。
假設連沙國都發生政治暴動，國際能源總署（IEA）必會下令動用石油庫存，但目前這種情勢卻很難界定。李維表示，一旦沙國石油供應中斷後果將不堪設想，因此即使發生幾率很低也要排除一切可能，而IEA當務之急就是確立各國動用石油庫存時機。
第二、經濟合作暨發展組織（OECD）必須更努力讓中、印加入釋放石油庫存的行列。李維表示，光靠一國釋放庫存不足以對抗油價漲勢，因此多年來OECD各國在必要時皆透過IEA共同釋放庫存。如今隨著石油需求轉移至亞洲，中、印兩大亞洲消耗國自然也應分擔穩定市場的責任。
由於中、印皆非OECD會員國，且兩國石油市場仍不夠透明，因此多年來與西方合作並不順利。李維因此建議，東西方應改由G20架構進行合作，並制定新的庫存合作協議。
第三、各國也應發展新的對策來防止市場炒作。李維表示，2008年國際油價飆至每桶147美元後，G20各國就已修法預防油價炒作，但當年那波漲勢是受到中國為主的經濟因素推動，和這次的區域政治因素不同，因此先前修訂的新規不見得能嚇阻目前局勢下的炒作行為。
他也認為市場炒作一般屬正常現象，但現在的緊張情勢已造成搶油大戰，再有炒作將使市場波動加劇，因此各國應儘快追加新的規範。
李維表示，儘管全球能源經濟在長遠的未來勢必得逐漸轉型，但在轉型期間，上述3點仍是各國救急的必要措施。
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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:25/02/11
紐約時報報導，利比亞石油產量雖然不到全球產量百分之二，但品質特高，重要性不能以產量衡量。因此儘管全球最大油國沙地阿拉伯宣佈隨時可增產彌補利比亞這個“小”缺口，市場仍然不安，國際油價連日飆漲。
專家說，利比亞日產160萬桶原油，超過九成是含硫量低的輕原油，較容易提煉成汽油、柴油、煤油、噴射燃油，且歐洲和亞洲許多煉油廠設備只能提煉輕原油，無法處理含硫量高的重原油，對利比亞原油倚賴特重。
重原油加重成本
沙地阿拉伯表示，沙國有每日400萬桶的備用產量，隨時能投入生產彌補利比亞的減產。但沙國這些備用產量多半是重原油，對歐洲而言，運輸提煉成本都比輕原油高。華府“能源政策研究基金”主任戈德斯坦表示，“質比量重要”。
利比亞若持續動盪，歐洲煉油廠將被迫向阿爾及利亞和尼日利亞購買輕原油，美國也向這兩國買油，因此可能會出現輕原油爭奪戰。上次輕原油供不應求是在2007和2008年初，導至全球油價衝破每桶140美元，當時原因是需求勁增而非突然缺貨。
相較於歐洲，美國煉油廠設備能夠處理屬於重原油的委內瑞拉和墨西哥原油，加上利比亞輕原油八成五銷往歐洲，因此利比亞減產對歐洲的影響超過美國，這也是做為美國油價基準的西德州原油比做為歐洲油價基準的北海布侖特原油低約10美元的主因。
沙國增產
油價120美元止步
中東北非政局動盪以來，投資人最感擔心的事在週四終於出現：陷入混亂的利比亞原油生產與出口受阻，油價急漲，倫敦布蘭特油價一度逼近每桶120美元。
眼看情勢緊急，石油大國沙地阿拉伯承諾會彌補利比亞供油缺口，才使油價漲勢趨緩。
週四國際油價大幅震盪，有報導指出利比亞原油生產受阻，日產量減少50萬桶至100萬桶。該國原本日產量是160萬桶。
受此影響，國際油價稍早一路飆高，倫敦北海布蘭特原油一度高到119.79美元，是29個月最高。紐約西德州中級原油也達到103美元。
油價或飆至220美元
日本野村的分析師警告，如果利比亞與阿爾及利亞產油受阻，油價可能飆到每桶220美元。
不過，稍後全球最大原油出口國沙地阿拉伯官員表示，沙國、石油輸出國家組織（OPEC）與西非產油國願意增產原油，彌補任何可能出現的供油缺口，甚至連原油品質都一樣。
受此支撐，油價有所回跌，倫敦北海布蘭原油回跌至114美元，不過仍較週三揚7.5%。
至於一向與油價同步的金價週四也告揚升，在7週高檔附近，為每安士1千413美元左右。
沙地阿拉伯表示，OPEC中的西非國家可把原出口亞洲的原油轉為供應歐洲。OPEC中的西非國家為尼日利亞與安哥拉。
專家指出，OPEC官方參考一籃油價目前已突破每桶100美元，在週三達105.88美元。OPEC的目標是把此一官方參考油價維持在每桶80到100美元之前，而相信在此一區間代表原油供需平衡。如今該油價超越此一水平，OPEC有責任調節供應。
在此同時，雖然國際原油現貨與近期期貨價走高，遠期期貨卻是走低，紐約商品交易所2013年5月西德州中級原油期貨過去兩天來非但沒有上揚，反而還下跌0.6%，顯示投資人大都把當前的中東北非地域風險視為短期因素。
若逾120美元
恐搞垮美復甦
華爾街日報報導，若油價進一步上漲，然後停留在那個高檔一段時間，則美國經濟復甦就有翻車之虞。德意志銀行週四表示，油價漲至每桶120美元以上，將就是全球經濟成長的反折點。
報導指出，大部份專家推估油價最少將漲至每桶120美元，並停留在那個水平，威脅美國經濟復甦。
德意志銀行在1份固定收益研究報告中說：“每桶120美元就是代表石油佔全球GDP比重升至5.5%以上水平，歷史上，這就代表全球成長已受到壓力。”
加州大學聖地牙哥校區經濟學者漢米爾頓（James Hamilton）表示，能源價格上漲對經濟構成的最大風險，來自於消費者所受到的衝擊。油價上漲意味通膨將升高，促使消費者撙節支出。
漢氏強調，美國消費者1年用掉約1千400億加侖汽油，所以零售汽油價格過去3個月來每加侖漲約0.3美元，顯著排擠消費者支出，對復甦是一大拖累。
受中東動亂影響，國際油價近來連連上揚，紐約油價已站上100美元，是從金融危機之前以來高價。
倫敦油價週四也逼近120美元是2008年8月22日來高點。
今年來，油價已上漲約7.35%，汽油期貨上漲約10.7%。
報導指出，現在最大的未知數，是中東及北非動盪是否會導致長時期的產量減少及輸運失序，這可能將油價推向更高，並將美國及其他國家的經濟打回衰退。1973年石油禁運及1979伊朗革命所引發的供給驅動型油市震撼，都曾將美國經濟打入衰退。
不過美國失業率居高不下、製造業有相當產能仍閒置、民眾或市場通膨預期心理尚未轉強等，將有助降低聯儲局（Fed）因油價上漲而提前升息可能性。
油暴將吃掉企業獲利20%
中東情勢緊張，觸發倫敦布蘭特油價已飆破每桶120美元，英仕曼集團GLG新興市場策略聯席主管Karim Abdel-Motaal預估，今年國際油價站穩100美元恐是常態，整體企業獲利將被吃掉10%至20%，外資正密切關注。
因油價飆漲，三大機構賣超未減，合計賣超85.65億元，比前日的賣超51億元還高。
國際油價飆漲，已對全球經濟復甦大添疑慮，航空業就是最典型例子。麥格理資本證券指出，燃油成本約佔台灣航空業總營運成本的40%至50%，且大多沒有避險，麥格理證券將2011與2012年油價預估值分別調升至95.1、106.2美元，因應對航空雙雄2011、2012年獲利，各調降15%、25%。
國際油價持續向上攀升，新興市場所面臨的輸入性通膨風險高不可攀，Karim Abdel-Motaal表示，以中國為首的新興市場國家未來將投入更多預算在補貼糧價等民生物品上，對財政狀況相對不穩定的國家來說，挑戰才剛開始。
油市嚴峻更勝2008年
利比亞的動亂與供油受阻，嚴重暴露石油輸出國家組織（OPEC）供油結構的脆弱，即使OPEC決定增產，短期內油價仍有可能衝到每桶150美元以上，更別談OPEC最大產油國沙地阿拉伯還可能遭到動亂波及。
中東北非（MENA）的混亂局勢使得國際油價近來漲勢迅如奔馬，勾起世人對2008年7月國際油價暴漲到每桶147美元的回憶。然而比較現今與當年局勢，無論是在原油供應或地域風險上，眼前情況更較當年嚴峻。
2008年上半油價急漲主因在於美元下跌與市場掀起投機炒作熱潮，因此儘管國際間要求OPEC增產原油以壓抑油價的聲浪高張，OPEC卻是以油價上漲與供應無關為由堅持拒絕增產。此外，OPEC當時幾乎是以全產能在產油，增產能力只有1日100萬桶，OPEC必須保留做為供油遭遇緊急情況時的緩衝。
再看現今情況，儘管OPEC增產能力已增到1日500萬桶左右，但其中有370到400萬桶都是由沙國擁有。雖然光靠沙國即可彌補利比亞（原油日產量估為160萬桶），與產油也面臨威脅的阿爾及利亞（原油日產量估為180萬桶）的供油短缺，但是也代表OPEC的增產能力只剩1日160萬桶左右，實在難以再應付其他可能發生的供油中斷風險，這也正是投資人所擔心的。
此外，產油國要進行增產，至少需要1個月的準備時間，再加上利比亞與阿爾及利亞的原油品質優於沙國，煉油成本相對較低，這些條件都將繼續推動油價上漲。
從地域風險來看，當前情況更是較2008年時緊張。當年的中東風險也就不過是伊朗的核子問題，是在西方國家可控制的範圍內，然而現今卻是利比亞這位被美國前總統里根稱為瘋狗的卡達菲，誰也無法預期他在做最後一搏時會有甚麼動作。
華爾街日報就指出，利比亞擁有大批可製造化學武器的原料，包括芥子氣以及飛毛腿飛彈，令美國政府大為擔心，不知卡達菲面對國內動亂是否會使用。這樣的風險也使英國首相卡梅倫日前敦促國際間考慮對格達費採取行動。
另一個令投資人擔心的地域風險是沙國政局可能也會受影響。在茉莉花革命浪潮下，沙國已出現抗議行動，迫使沙國當局大手筆推出福利措施極力安撫。
世人最感憂慮的是沙國產油是否也會受到威脅，若是供油受阻，OPEC供油體系也就等於崩潰。若真如此，後果難以想像。
這波石油危機詭譎
紐約知名智庫外交關係協會（CFR）資深研究員李維（Michael Levi）於金融時報撰文表示，在全新的全球化經濟環境下，這波石油危機可說無從預測，因此眼前更應及早建立短期危機處理機制。
近來從埃及、利比亞延燒至中東等石油產地的政治動亂，已讓國際油價衝破每桶100美元關卡，且短期內見不到穩定跡象。這波政治動亂是否繼續蔓延至沙地阿拉伯等石油重鎮，進而爆發最新石油危機已成為全球焦點，而各國也出現提高國內石油產量及加速發展替代能源的聲浪。
李維對此表示，提高石油自給率與發展替代能源在長遠的未來確實有助各國抵擋油價衝擊，但這兩項做法皆不是幾年內就能見效，因此眼前各國還需先確立3項危機處理機制才能防止衝擊加劇。
第一、各國之間必須建立一致的石油儲備策略。李維表示，各國的石油儲備量能在石油供應量銳減或輸油路線中斷時提供緩衝空間，藉由釋放庫存來紓解市場壓力。問題是，目前各國對於釋放庫存的時間點定義模糊。
假設連沙國都發生政治暴動，國際能源總署（IEA）必會下令動用石油庫存，但目前這種情勢卻很難界定。李維表示，一旦沙國石油供應中斷後果將不堪設想，因此即使發生幾率很低也要排除一切可能，而IEA當務之急就是確立各國動用石油庫存時機。
第二、經濟合作暨發展組織（OECD）必須更努力讓中、印加入釋放石油庫存的行列。李維表示，光靠一國釋放庫存不足以對抗油價漲勢，因此多年來OECD各國在必要時皆透過IEA共同釋放庫存。如今隨著石油需求轉移至亞洲，中、印兩大亞洲消耗國自然也應分擔穩定市場的責任。
由於中、印皆非OECD會員國，且兩國石油市場仍不夠透明，因此多年來與西方合作並不順利。李維因此建議，東西方應改由G20架構進行合作，並制定新的庫存合作協議。
第三、各國也應發展新的對策來防止市場炒作。李維表示，2008年國際油價飆至每桶147美元後，G20各國就已修法預防油價炒作，但當年那波漲勢是受到中國為主的經濟因素推動，和這次的區域政治因素不同，因此先前修訂的新規不見得能嚇阻目前局勢下的炒作行為。
他也認為市場炒作一般屬正常現象，但現在的緊張情勢已造成搶油大戰，再有炒作將使市場波動加劇，因此各國應儘快追加新的規範。
李維表示，儘管全球能源經濟在長遠的未來勢必得逐漸轉型，但在轉型期間，上述3點仍是各國救急的必要措施。
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Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:25/02/11
油價失控‧亞洲衝擊暫不大‧分析員：宜選高息成長股抗跌
Created 02/25/2011 - 18:30
（吉隆坡25日訊）利比亞情勢未見降溫，導致週四國際油價列車失控飆漲至一度近120美元，加上亞洲區域通膨情緒日漸拉緊，短期股市攀升展望堪憂，分析員認為，儘管短線憂慮密佈，惟仍可選擇高成長股與高息股當作對抗逆市投資工具，加上可以搭配購買黃金與產業相關投資工具，將可在通膨升溫時代殺出一條血路。
亞股和馬股收復部份失地
週四國際油價像失速列車飆漲，其中倫敦ICE交易所油價一度狂升7.7%，報每桶119.79美元，紐約油價破100美元，讓亞洲股市臉青青，馬股暴跌21點，失守1500點。
亞股和馬股今日在驚魂甫定下收復小部份失地，但石油新危機一觸即發，任何投資決定以謹慎為上。馬股今日收市掛1489.27點，落0.60點。
大華繼顯指出，投資者可以購買擁有高股息回酬的“抗跌股”，例如數碼網絡（DIGI, 6947, 主板基建計劃組）及南北大道（PLUS, 5052, 主板貿服組）等公司的股票，避開中東市場的風暴與緊張局面。
商品及能源相關領域，例如棕油及石油與天然氣公司，是偏高原油價格的“受惠者”，至於潛在輸者則包括亞洲航空（AIRASIA, 5099, 主板貿服組）及國家能源（TENAGA, 5347, 主板貿服組）等公司，必須謹慎。
肯納格研究副研究主管陳建堯推薦國油化學（PCHEM, 5183, 主板工業產品組）、實達集團（SPSETIA, 8664, 主板產業組）、金務大（GAMUDA, 5398, 主板建筑組）、穩大（ADVENTA, 7191, 主板工業產品組）、肯油企業（KENCANA, 5122, 主板貿服組）與聯昌集團（CIMB, 1023, 主板金融組），認為這些可以作中長線投資組合。
達投資管理公司投資部門投資經理林治彣建議投資者追捧油氣、手套、銀行與種植，包括肯油企業、國油化學、大眾銀行（PBBANK, 1295, 主板金融組）、馬來亞銀行（MAYBANK, 1155, 主板金融組）、速伯瑪（SUPERMX, 7106, 主板工業產品組）、穩大、高美達（GLOMAC, 5020, 主板產業組）、怡保花園（IGB, 1597, 主板產業組）等都可投資。
陳建堯說，利比亞局勢儘管未明朗，惟至少周邊其他產油國仍操作正常，加上國際油盟將加緊關注石油供需鏈，料只要油價在每桶120美元以下，亞洲與大馬經濟不會受到影響。
“同時，儘管利比亞戰局看似一發不可收拾，惟目前破壞力似乎已經消化。至於亞洲各國已經極力在監管通膨走動跡象，這些潛在風險暫且仍不足以擾市。”
他表示，大馬經濟基本面也好，若中東動亂也僅限於利比亞，短期油價波動不會影響經濟成長。除非戰事擴大到主要產油國沙地阿拉伯，油價不排除會飆破200美元，屆時全球經濟才可能應聲倒地。
若飆破120美元
大馬成長存隱憂
“目前油價飆破110美元主要是投機客炒作，僅是短暫因素，若戰事沒有擴大，投機客缺乏題材，日後自然會回歸正常。若油價若持續飆破120美元，確實是大馬經濟成長隱憂，但影響程度要看高油價可持續多久。若是一兩周內就回跌，對經濟影響仍淺。”
林治彣也認為，國際油價走升暫時對亞洲經濟看不出有何衝擊性。但如果持續下去，企業成本墊高，經濟增長勢必會受波及，程度要視未來走升幅度而定。
“當油價漲到超過一般家庭收入時，就會影響家庭消費支出，對整體經濟市場是負面影響，經濟成長也會被侵蝕，連帶影響就業市場，停滯性通膨現象將更彰顯。”
他認為，目前國際油價對大馬經濟成長率傷害不大，主要是在經濟成長快速與人民所得增加忍受範圍內。
“中東政局不穩造成油價上漲，屬於短期因素，與2008年油價漲至140美元的停滯性通膨情況不同。當時是廠商不願意吸收油價上漲的成本，轉嫁給消費者，影響消費能力，對經濟成長產生衝擊；但這次情況不同，今年全球景氣復甦，景氣前景明朗，廠商較願意吸收成本，暫時不會影響物價及經濟成長率。”
通膨投資2法則
選獲利成長快公司
棄長抱股票策略
陳建堯認為，要在通膨升溫時代投資成功，有兩個法則必須遵守，包括獲利成長快過通膨股與高息股。
高息藍籌股最佳選擇
“投資者要選擇獲利成長足夠快的公司，強勁到足以補償高通膨時本益比下跌，也就是在通膨時仍能獲益公司，如產業與可隨商品價格上漲而同步走升的行業。”
可投資產業黃金
另外，他認為第二個守則是放棄長抱股票策略，因為有可能政府貨幣政策會因通膨而緊縮，投資者必須考量潛在衝擊，即必須在通膨與通縮間做移轉，因此高息藍籌股是最好選擇。
林治彣也表示，投資者最好追捧商品利潤與通膨相調和公司，包括油氣與能源股票；此外，不妨可考慮因即將到來的能源危機而獲利公司，包括國防工業與替代能源股票。其他投資包括產業與黃金。
“尤其黃金越來越值錢，主要是這是最佳的避險需求工具。目前黃金不但重回1千400美元高點，更直逼1月高點1千423美元。
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source/转贴/Extract/:biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:25/02/11
（吉隆坡25日訊）利比亞情勢未見降溫，導致週四國際油價列車失控飆漲至一度近120美元，加上亞洲區域通膨情緒日漸拉緊，短期股市攀升展望堪憂，分析員認為，儘管短線憂慮密佈，惟仍可選擇高成長股與高息股當作對抗逆市投資工具，加上可以搭配購買黃金與產業相關投資工具，將可在通膨升溫時代殺出一條血路。
亞股和馬股收復部份失地
週四國際油價像失速列車飆漲，其中倫敦ICE交易所油價一度狂升7.7%，報每桶119.79美元，紐約油價破100美元，讓亞洲股市臉青青，馬股暴跌21點，失守1500點。
亞股和馬股今日在驚魂甫定下收復小部份失地，但石油新危機一觸即發，任何投資決定以謹慎為上。馬股今日收市掛1489.27點，落0.60點。
大華繼顯指出，投資者可以購買擁有高股息回酬的“抗跌股”，例如數碼網絡（DIGI, 6947, 主板基建計劃組）及南北大道（PLUS, 5052, 主板貿服組）等公司的股票，避開中東市場的風暴與緊張局面。
商品及能源相關領域，例如棕油及石油與天然氣公司，是偏高原油價格的“受惠者”，至於潛在輸者則包括亞洲航空（AIRASIA, 5099, 主板貿服組）及國家能源（TENAGA, 5347, 主板貿服組）等公司，必須謹慎。
肯納格研究副研究主管陳建堯推薦國油化學（PCHEM, 5183, 主板工業產品組）、實達集團（SPSETIA, 8664, 主板產業組）、金務大（GAMUDA, 5398, 主板建筑組）、穩大（ADVENTA, 7191, 主板工業產品組）、肯油企業（KENCANA, 5122, 主板貿服組）與聯昌集團（CIMB, 1023, 主板金融組），認為這些可以作中長線投資組合。
達投資管理公司投資部門投資經理林治彣建議投資者追捧油氣、手套、銀行與種植，包括肯油企業、國油化學、大眾銀行（PBBANK, 1295, 主板金融組）、馬來亞銀行（MAYBANK, 1155, 主板金融組）、速伯瑪（SUPERMX, 7106, 主板工業產品組）、穩大、高美達（GLOMAC, 5020, 主板產業組）、怡保花園（IGB, 1597, 主板產業組）等都可投資。
陳建堯說，利比亞局勢儘管未明朗，惟至少周邊其他產油國仍操作正常，加上國際油盟將加緊關注石油供需鏈，料只要油價在每桶120美元以下，亞洲與大馬經濟不會受到影響。
“同時，儘管利比亞戰局看似一發不可收拾，惟目前破壞力似乎已經消化。至於亞洲各國已經極力在監管通膨走動跡象，這些潛在風險暫且仍不足以擾市。”
他表示，大馬經濟基本面也好，若中東動亂也僅限於利比亞，短期油價波動不會影響經濟成長。除非戰事擴大到主要產油國沙地阿拉伯，油價不排除會飆破200美元，屆時全球經濟才可能應聲倒地。
若飆破120美元
大馬成長存隱憂
“目前油價飆破110美元主要是投機客炒作，僅是短暫因素，若戰事沒有擴大，投機客缺乏題材，日後自然會回歸正常。若油價若持續飆破120美元，確實是大馬經濟成長隱憂，但影響程度要看高油價可持續多久。若是一兩周內就回跌，對經濟影響仍淺。”
林治彣也認為，國際油價走升暫時對亞洲經濟看不出有何衝擊性。但如果持續下去，企業成本墊高，經濟增長勢必會受波及，程度要視未來走升幅度而定。
“當油價漲到超過一般家庭收入時，就會影響家庭消費支出，對整體經濟市場是負面影響，經濟成長也會被侵蝕，連帶影響就業市場，停滯性通膨現象將更彰顯。”
他認為，目前國際油價對大馬經濟成長率傷害不大，主要是在經濟成長快速與人民所得增加忍受範圍內。
“中東政局不穩造成油價上漲，屬於短期因素，與2008年油價漲至140美元的停滯性通膨情況不同。當時是廠商不願意吸收油價上漲的成本，轉嫁給消費者，影響消費能力，對經濟成長產生衝擊；但這次情況不同，今年全球景氣復甦，景氣前景明朗，廠商較願意吸收成本，暫時不會影響物價及經濟成長率。”
通膨投資2法則
選獲利成長快公司
棄長抱股票策略
陳建堯認為，要在通膨升溫時代投資成功，有兩個法則必須遵守，包括獲利成長快過通膨股與高息股。
高息藍籌股最佳選擇
“投資者要選擇獲利成長足夠快的公司，強勁到足以補償高通膨時本益比下跌，也就是在通膨時仍能獲益公司，如產業與可隨商品價格上漲而同步走升的行業。”
可投資產業黃金
另外，他認為第二個守則是放棄長抱股票策略，因為有可能政府貨幣政策會因通膨而緊縮，投資者必須考量潛在衝擊，即必須在通膨與通縮間做移轉，因此高息藍籌股是最好選擇。
林治彣也表示，投資者最好追捧商品利潤與通膨相調和公司，包括油氣與能源股票；此外，不妨可考慮因即將到來的能源危機而獲利公司，包括國防工業與替代能源股票。其他投資包括產業與黃金。
“尤其黃金越來越值錢，主要是這是最佳的避險需求工具。目前黃金不但重回1千400美元高點，更直逼1月高點1千423美元。
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source/转贴/Extract/:biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:25/02/11
Friday, February 25, 2011
Aviation Sector: Assessing the Impact of Costlier Jet Fuel
Aviation Sector: Assessing the Impact of Costlier Jet Fuel (OVERWEIGHT)
Jet fuel price has hit fresh 2-year highs, sparked by the unrest in Libya, which has stoked fears of a global supply shortage of oil. As fuel represents as much as 30-35% of airlines’ expenses, we see earnings possibly at risk, as a US$1 increase on our base jet fuel price assumption would hit earnings by 0.6%-7.2% over the next two years. No airline will be spared, although SIA commands pricing power on its fuel surcharge in the premium segment while budget carriers can offset the adverse impact via higher ancillary fees and their “no fuel surcharge” marketing gimmick. As we believe the situation is only temporary and travel demand will continue to be buoyant, we maintain our OVERWEIGHT call on the aviation sector, with AirAsia being our top pick.
Jet fuel price scales to 2-year high. Jet fuel price is scaling new highs sparked by unrest in Egypt, and then Libya, which could potentially spill over to other oil-rich Middle East countries stoking fears of oil shortage globally. Jet Fuel YTD is up by 18% to US$123.6/bbl (2010: US$90.60), surpassing our key assumption of an average US$110 for 2011 and 2012.
Unrest could prolong. Recent news reports on the unrest in Libya do not provide indications of any easing in tension, which means that the situation may prolong. Nonetheless, Gulf countries such as Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Oman and Saudi are less inclined to political unrest given their high GDP per capita.
Impact on airlines. High jet fuel price does not bode well for airlines, as the commodity makes up as much as 30-35% of total expenses. We estimate that a US$1 increase in jet fuel price against our base case jet fuel assumption of US$110/bbl would shave earnings by some 0.6- 7.2% in FY11 and 1.4%-5.3% in FY12 in assuming no further surcharges are implemented.
Prefer SIA and budget airlines. In our view, airlines with strong balance sheets and which are not highly leveraged such as SIA would be able to withstand the higher oil prices. In addition, SIA commands pricing power in the premium segment (for business travel) despite its higher fuel surcharge, which offsets the negative impact of higher jet fuel prices. SIA had earlier raised its fuel surcharge for the first time since the last oil crisis in 2007. While bookings have leveled off, the carrier’s recently released January stats continue to show strong momentum, with RPK rising 2.9% YoY on the back of encouraging load factor of 78%.
AirAsia and Tiger Airways would be more affected by higher jet fuel as budget carriers may be more reluctant to impose fuel surcharges and would rather raise ancillary fees to cushion the impact. Furthermore, their marketing claims of ‘no fuel surcharge’ despite the higher air fares would be favorable for budget carriers in drawing passengers away from full service carriers, which proved to be successful back in 2007-2008. We have BUY ratings on AIRASIA (TP: RM3.86), TIGER (TP: SGD2.24) and SIA (TP: SGD17.20). On the other hand, we are negative on MAS with its low earnings base given the higher possibility that its FY11 and FY12 performance would continue to be in the red. We maintain our SELL (TP: RM1.58) call on MAS.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT on Aviation. We believe the current situation is only temporary as travel demand remains buoyant given the healthy load factors recorded so far. We maintain our OVERWEIGHT call on Aviation, with AIRASIA as our top pick. Nonetheless, given the global nature of the risk and AirAsia’s high foreign ownership, the stock is more susceptible to a selldown from foreign funds.
Source/转贴/Extract/: DMG Research
Publish date:25/02/11
Jet fuel price has hit fresh 2-year highs, sparked by the unrest in Libya, which has stoked fears of a global supply shortage of oil. As fuel represents as much as 30-35% of airlines’ expenses, we see earnings possibly at risk, as a US$1 increase on our base jet fuel price assumption would hit earnings by 0.6%-7.2% over the next two years. No airline will be spared, although SIA commands pricing power on its fuel surcharge in the premium segment while budget carriers can offset the adverse impact via higher ancillary fees and their “no fuel surcharge” marketing gimmick. As we believe the situation is only temporary and travel demand will continue to be buoyant, we maintain our OVERWEIGHT call on the aviation sector, with AirAsia being our top pick.
Jet fuel price scales to 2-year high. Jet fuel price is scaling new highs sparked by unrest in Egypt, and then Libya, which could potentially spill over to other oil-rich Middle East countries stoking fears of oil shortage globally. Jet Fuel YTD is up by 18% to US$123.6/bbl (2010: US$90.60), surpassing our key assumption of an average US$110 for 2011 and 2012.
Unrest could prolong. Recent news reports on the unrest in Libya do not provide indications of any easing in tension, which means that the situation may prolong. Nonetheless, Gulf countries such as Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Oman and Saudi are less inclined to political unrest given their high GDP per capita.
Impact on airlines. High jet fuel price does not bode well for airlines, as the commodity makes up as much as 30-35% of total expenses. We estimate that a US$1 increase in jet fuel price against our base case jet fuel assumption of US$110/bbl would shave earnings by some 0.6- 7.2% in FY11 and 1.4%-5.3% in FY12 in assuming no further surcharges are implemented.
Prefer SIA and budget airlines. In our view, airlines with strong balance sheets and which are not highly leveraged such as SIA would be able to withstand the higher oil prices. In addition, SIA commands pricing power in the premium segment (for business travel) despite its higher fuel surcharge, which offsets the negative impact of higher jet fuel prices. SIA had earlier raised its fuel surcharge for the first time since the last oil crisis in 2007. While bookings have leveled off, the carrier’s recently released January stats continue to show strong momentum, with RPK rising 2.9% YoY on the back of encouraging load factor of 78%.
AirAsia and Tiger Airways would be more affected by higher jet fuel as budget carriers may be more reluctant to impose fuel surcharges and would rather raise ancillary fees to cushion the impact. Furthermore, their marketing claims of ‘no fuel surcharge’ despite the higher air fares would be favorable for budget carriers in drawing passengers away from full service carriers, which proved to be successful back in 2007-2008. We have BUY ratings on AIRASIA (TP: RM3.86), TIGER (TP: SGD2.24) and SIA (TP: SGD17.20). On the other hand, we are negative on MAS with its low earnings base given the higher possibility that its FY11 and FY12 performance would continue to be in the red. We maintain our SELL (TP: RM1.58) call on MAS.
Maintain OVERWEIGHT on Aviation. We believe the current situation is only temporary as travel demand remains buoyant given the healthy load factors recorded so far. We maintain our OVERWEIGHT call on Aviation, with AIRASIA as our top pick. Nonetheless, given the global nature of the risk and AirAsia’s high foreign ownership, the stock is more susceptible to a selldown from foreign funds.
Source/转贴/Extract/: DMG Research
Publish date:25/02/11
Ascendas India Trust snaps up five buildings in Hyderabad
Business Times - 25 Feb 2011
Ascendas India Trust snaps up five buildings in Hyderabad
By LINETTE LIM
ASCENDAS India Trust (a-iTrust) announced yesterday that it will acquire five buildings in Hyderabad, India with a total built-up area of 2.2 million square feet.
Two of the buildings - which are completed and 100 per cent occupied - will be acquired for 1.74 billion rupees (S$48.8 million). The total purchase cost would be 1.77 billion rupees if transaction expenses were to be included.
The other three buildings are expected to be completed over the next four to five years. Based on estimated net property income, they will cost 6.81 billion rupees.
All five buildings are expected to be acquired from Indian property developer Phoenix Infocity Private Limited. Upon acquisition, the buildings - situated in Hitec City 2 Special Economic Zone - will be managed by Ascendas Group.
While the two completed buildings will be immediately acquired, a-iTrust said it will pay for the three other buildings as and when they are completed and leased.
The acquisition is expected to be distribution per unit accretive, with accretion from the acquisition of the two completed buildings estimated at 0.16 cents per unit in the first year, said a-iTrust. 'Further accretion is expected from the acquisition of the remaining buildings over the next few years,' it added.
If the acquisition is funded fully by debt, a-iTrust's gearing will be 22 per cent after buying the two completed buildings, and 33 per cent after buying all five buildings over the next few years.
Ascendas Property Fund Trustee - the trustee-manger of a-iTrust - said it has 'secured debt commitment from banks'.
'We are optimistic that the demand for business space in Hyderabad will remain buoyant, supported by the city's strong economic fundamentals and its IT sector,' said Jonathan Yap, chief executive of Ascendas Property Fund Trustee. 'Strong demand for business space has driven the occupancy of Hyderabad's Grade A office space up, to 97 per cent as at Dec 31, 2010.'
The counter closed trading unchanged at 93.5 cents yesterday.
Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:25/02/11
Ascendas India Trust snaps up five buildings in Hyderabad
By LINETTE LIM
ASCENDAS India Trust (a-iTrust) announced yesterday that it will acquire five buildings in Hyderabad, India with a total built-up area of 2.2 million square feet.
Two of the buildings - which are completed and 100 per cent occupied - will be acquired for 1.74 billion rupees (S$48.8 million). The total purchase cost would be 1.77 billion rupees if transaction expenses were to be included.
The other three buildings are expected to be completed over the next four to five years. Based on estimated net property income, they will cost 6.81 billion rupees.
All five buildings are expected to be acquired from Indian property developer Phoenix Infocity Private Limited. Upon acquisition, the buildings - situated in Hitec City 2 Special Economic Zone - will be managed by Ascendas Group.
While the two completed buildings will be immediately acquired, a-iTrust said it will pay for the three other buildings as and when they are completed and leased.
The acquisition is expected to be distribution per unit accretive, with accretion from the acquisition of the two completed buildings estimated at 0.16 cents per unit in the first year, said a-iTrust. 'Further accretion is expected from the acquisition of the remaining buildings over the next few years,' it added.
If the acquisition is funded fully by debt, a-iTrust's gearing will be 22 per cent after buying the two completed buildings, and 33 per cent after buying all five buildings over the next few years.
Ascendas Property Fund Trustee - the trustee-manger of a-iTrust - said it has 'secured debt commitment from banks'.
'We are optimistic that the demand for business space in Hyderabad will remain buoyant, supported by the city's strong economic fundamentals and its IT sector,' said Jonathan Yap, chief executive of Ascendas Property Fund Trustee. 'Strong demand for business space has driven the occupancy of Hyderabad's Grade A office space up, to 97 per cent as at Dec 31, 2010.'
The counter closed trading unchanged at 93.5 cents yesterday.
Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:25/02/11
Fortis acquires First Reit property for $33m
Business Times - 25 Feb 2011
Fortis acquires First Reit property for $33m
By NISHA RAMCHANDANI
SOME seven months after bowing out of the take-over battle for Parkway Holdings, Indian billionaires Malvinder and Shivinder Singh are re-entering Singapore's healthcare scene with the $33 million acquisition of an upcoming cancer hospital from First Real Estate Investment Trust (First Reit).
The purchase - to be funded by internal resources and completed by March - is being made via Fortis Global Healthcare, which is owned by the Singh family.
The hospital under development at No 19 Adam Road is a proposed three-storey Cancer Centre. The sale will provide First REIT with a net cash gain of about $8.3 million (after subtracting divestment fees, related costs and repayment of loans).
'The sale proceeds will provide First Reit with greater financial flexibility to pursue other possible attractive acquisition opportunities and/or to repay debt,' First Reit's manager Bowsprit Capital Corporation said in an announcement to the Singapore Exchange. It will also reduce First Reit's gearing from 17.6 per cent to 14.2 per cent.
At $33 million, the sale is 17 per cent above the property's latest valuation of $28.2 million as at Dec 28 last year by CB Richard Ellis and 52.1 per cent higher than its cost of $21.7 million as at Dec 31 last year.
Speaking to BT yesterday, Fortis Global's CEO Vishal Bali said that the company is creating verticals around different specialities in line with its vision to be an integrated healthcare provider.
According to Mr Bali, Fortis Global plans to tweak the existing design of the facility and the hospital is likely to come on-stream in the second or third quarter of next year.
'We are also looking at future expansion in Singapore,' Mr Bali went on to say, but declined to comment on whether Fortis Global is in talks with any other local companies at present.
This latest acquisition comes on the heels of two other purchases by Fortis Global in the last five months - that of Hong-Kong based primary healthcare service provider Quality HealthCare in November last year as well as the acquisition of a significant stake in Australia's largest dentistry network, Dental Corporation, in January this year.
'We will continue to look for opportunities to further expand our presence in the region,' said Malvinder Singh, Fortis Global's executive chairman, in an announcement yesterday.
The Singh family also owns a majority stake in India-based hospital operator Fortis Healthcare, which was embroiled in a corporate tussle last year with Malaysia's sovereign wealth fund, Khazanah Nasional, over local healthcare provider Parkway. The Indian group eventually rescinded its offer after Khazanah trumped Fortis' $3.2 billion general offer with a $3.5 billion general offer of its own.
Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:25/02/11
Fortis acquires First Reit property for $33m
By NISHA RAMCHANDANI
SOME seven months after bowing out of the take-over battle for Parkway Holdings, Indian billionaires Malvinder and Shivinder Singh are re-entering Singapore's healthcare scene with the $33 million acquisition of an upcoming cancer hospital from First Real Estate Investment Trust (First Reit).
The purchase - to be funded by internal resources and completed by March - is being made via Fortis Global Healthcare, which is owned by the Singh family.
The hospital under development at No 19 Adam Road is a proposed three-storey Cancer Centre. The sale will provide First REIT with a net cash gain of about $8.3 million (after subtracting divestment fees, related costs and repayment of loans).
'The sale proceeds will provide First Reit with greater financial flexibility to pursue other possible attractive acquisition opportunities and/or to repay debt,' First Reit's manager Bowsprit Capital Corporation said in an announcement to the Singapore Exchange. It will also reduce First Reit's gearing from 17.6 per cent to 14.2 per cent.
At $33 million, the sale is 17 per cent above the property's latest valuation of $28.2 million as at Dec 28 last year by CB Richard Ellis and 52.1 per cent higher than its cost of $21.7 million as at Dec 31 last year.
Speaking to BT yesterday, Fortis Global's CEO Vishal Bali said that the company is creating verticals around different specialities in line with its vision to be an integrated healthcare provider.
According to Mr Bali, Fortis Global plans to tweak the existing design of the facility and the hospital is likely to come on-stream in the second or third quarter of next year.
'We are also looking at future expansion in Singapore,' Mr Bali went on to say, but declined to comment on whether Fortis Global is in talks with any other local companies at present.
This latest acquisition comes on the heels of two other purchases by Fortis Global in the last five months - that of Hong-Kong based primary healthcare service provider Quality HealthCare in November last year as well as the acquisition of a significant stake in Australia's largest dentistry network, Dental Corporation, in January this year.
'We will continue to look for opportunities to further expand our presence in the region,' said Malvinder Singh, Fortis Global's executive chairman, in an announcement yesterday.
The Singh family also owns a majority stake in India-based hospital operator Fortis Healthcare, which was embroiled in a corporate tussle last year with Malaysia's sovereign wealth fund, Khazanah Nasional, over local healthcare provider Parkway. The Indian group eventually rescinded its offer after Khazanah trumped Fortis' $3.2 billion general offer with a $3.5 billion general offer of its own.
Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:25/02/11
Singapore swap offer rate halves in just a week
Business Times - 25 Feb 2011
Singapore swap offer rate halves in just a week
By SIOW LI SEN
(SINGAPORE) The Singapore swap offer rate (SOR) plummeted to fresh lows yesterday on further inflationary worries stoked by the turmoil in Libya.
The three-month SOR which is charged on many home loans fell to 0.07988, halving from 0.14138 just last week.
On Wednesday, the government said that January inflation surged to 5.5 per cent, taking some economists by surprise at the accelerating pace of price increases.
More importantly, month-on-month (seasonally adjusted) inflation surged to a 30-year high of 1.3 per cent, noted Citi economist Kit Wei Zheng.
Coupled with developments in Libya, it is a one way street for the Singapore unit to go higher as the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) uses a stronger currency to temper price hikes.
'Simply put, high inflation equals even greater chance of MAS tightening really, which is what the FX markets are pricing in, and that is therefore being transmitted to the SOR fixings,' said Mr Kit.
But still, the dramatic movements in the SOR which is affected by foreign exchange rates could be temporary, a liquidity surge caused by unwinding of positions, said Leong Wai Ho, a Barclays Capital economist. 'Oil is the catalyst, its positions being liquidated due to oil movements.'
Brent crude yesterday hit US$116 a barrel on fears that chaos in Libya could lead to an oil shortage. It was just under US$100 two weeks ago.
Adding to liquidity is the sale in the equity markets and it seems that all the money is being parked in the Singapore dollar.
'At the end of the day, people consider the Singdollar safe haven,' said Chia Woon Khien, Royal Bank of Scotland's head of local markets strategy.
Mr Kit said: 'Of course, one can argue that there is a risk premium being imputed on emerging markets, but given its AAA sovereign, Singapore is generally seen as a relative safe haven.'
Is the SOR headed for zero then?
'Well, the SOR is a derived rate, so it could theoretically go to zero or even beyond,' said Selena Ling, OCBC Bank economist. 'But I think this could create problems for the marketplace given that some loan packages use the SOR as the benchmark, and may also engender the wrong market behaviour (possibly in the property market). One key question is whether some intervention may be warranted?'
Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:25/02/11
Singapore swap offer rate halves in just a week
By SIOW LI SEN
(SINGAPORE) The Singapore swap offer rate (SOR) plummeted to fresh lows yesterday on further inflationary worries stoked by the turmoil in Libya.
The three-month SOR which is charged on many home loans fell to 0.07988, halving from 0.14138 just last week.
On Wednesday, the government said that January inflation surged to 5.5 per cent, taking some economists by surprise at the accelerating pace of price increases.
More importantly, month-on-month (seasonally adjusted) inflation surged to a 30-year high of 1.3 per cent, noted Citi economist Kit Wei Zheng.
Coupled with developments in Libya, it is a one way street for the Singapore unit to go higher as the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) uses a stronger currency to temper price hikes.
'Simply put, high inflation equals even greater chance of MAS tightening really, which is what the FX markets are pricing in, and that is therefore being transmitted to the SOR fixings,' said Mr Kit.
But still, the dramatic movements in the SOR which is affected by foreign exchange rates could be temporary, a liquidity surge caused by unwinding of positions, said Leong Wai Ho, a Barclays Capital economist. 'Oil is the catalyst, its positions being liquidated due to oil movements.'
Brent crude yesterday hit US$116 a barrel on fears that chaos in Libya could lead to an oil shortage. It was just under US$100 two weeks ago.
Adding to liquidity is the sale in the equity markets and it seems that all the money is being parked in the Singapore dollar.
'At the end of the day, people consider the Singdollar safe haven,' said Chia Woon Khien, Royal Bank of Scotland's head of local markets strategy.
Mr Kit said: 'Of course, one can argue that there is a risk premium being imputed on emerging markets, but given its AAA sovereign, Singapore is generally seen as a relative safe haven.'
Is the SOR headed for zero then?
'Well, the SOR is a derived rate, so it could theoretically go to zero or even beyond,' said Selena Ling, OCBC Bank economist. 'But I think this could create problems for the marketplace given that some loan packages use the SOR as the benchmark, and may also engender the wrong market behaviour (possibly in the property market). One key question is whether some intervention may be warranted?'
Source/转贴/Extract/: www.businesstimes.com.sg
Publish date:25/02/11
First REIT: Sale of Adam Road Investment Property (OCBC)
First REIT (FREIT) announced that it has entered into a sale and purchase agreement with Fortis Healthcare Singapore and Fortis Global Healthcare Holdings for the sale of its Adam Road Hospital for S$33.0m. This sale consideration represents a 17.0% premium over the recent market valuation of S$28.2m done in Dec 2010. The sale is expected to be completed in Mar 2011. FREIT believes that the sale will strengthen its cash position and financial flexibility and lower its gearing ratio. This sale will provide FREIT with a net cash gain of approximately S$8.3m after taking into account the relevant costs and repayment of borrowings drawn to acquire the asset
previously. We note that the current annual rental of Adam Road Hospital is S$1.22m, which is expected to rise to S$2.77m (fixed 2% annual increase thereafter) after asset enhancement initiatives are completed in 2HFY11. We place our BUY rating and S$0.82 fair value estimate UNDER REVIEW pending a discussion with management
Source/转贴/Extract/: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:25/02/11
previously. We note that the current annual rental of Adam Road Hospital is S$1.22m, which is expected to rise to S$2.77m (fixed 2% annual increase thereafter) after asset enhancement initiatives are completed in 2HFY11. We place our BUY rating and S$0.82 fair value estimate UNDER REVIEW pending a discussion with management
Source/转贴/Extract/: OCBC Investment Research
Publish date:25/02/11
Singapore Strategy: The MENA connection and its implications
Singapore Strategy
OVERWEIGHT Maintained
3,001.9 @23/02/11
Target Index: 3,560
The MENA connection and its implications
• Maintain Overweight on FSSTI and 3,560 end-CY11 FSSTI target. Our FSSTI bottom-up target of 3,560 is unchanged. So is our Overweight rating on Singapore. Our target implies 1.9x CY11 P/BV (slightly above mean) and 14.4x CY12 P/E (below mean). Back in December, we wrote that the bigger risk among developing trends was social unrest. In the past week, the market tone has swung all the way to fear as more MENA countries are added to the growing list of problem states. The fear right now is not what will develop in these countries but whether the unrest will spread to Saudi Arabia. In such an event, a major disruption to oil supplies will almost certainly trigger a spike in crude oil prices. With an inflation-bubbling environment, that would almost certainly guarantee a synchronised global slowdown. Our thoughts are that there are enough differences among Saudi Arabia, UAE and other dictatorial states to prevent this scenario. Hence, this sell-down should eventually turn out to be a buying opportunity over the next few weeks.
• Losers and winners. We scan our whole universe to identify the stocks with MENA connections and the stocks with oil-price links, to sieve the potential winners and losers. The stocks with the most MENA links are CSE Global, Hiap Seng, Hyflux, Keppel Corp, Mewah, Olam, Rotary Engineering, Sembcorp Industries, Tiger Airways and Wilmar. Other than Hyflux which has Algeria and Libya links, the others are mostly exposed to the oil-rich states of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. The hit to these companies is not obvious for now, unless contagion spreads to these states. In that event, the potential key losers are CSE Global, Hiap Seng, Rotary, Olam, Sembcorp Industries and Tiger Airways. A further spike in crude oil prices and further inflation will be twin knock-on events, whereby markets would sell down further and winners would be hard to identify. In a more stable climate thereafter, winners should be Keppel Corp, SembMarine, DBS, OCBC, UOB.
• The bottom-picking list. For traders who can’t wait to buy something after the recent sell-down, the stocks we are comfortable to take a bet on are Midas, OUE, Amtek, UOL, Keppel Land, STX OSV, Mewah, and DBS.
The MENA connections and its implications
The story so far. A street vendor setting himself on fire in Tunisia, after police confiscated his vegetable cart, provided the immediate spark for protests in Tunisia. Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation merely served as a catalyst for an uprising. The underlying conditions were there, namely high unemployment, food inflation, corruption, a lack of freedom of speech and poor living conditions. A month after Tunisia blew up, Egypt was the next to follow. Their protests inspired similar actions across the Arab world; the Egyptian revolution subsequently led to the ousting of Egypt's long-time president Hosni Mubarak. Concurrently, protests took place in Algeria, Yemen, Jordan, Pakistan, Iran, Algeria, Bahrain, and Morocco. The threads linking these events are similar: long-time government corruption and rising hardship for the people. Three days ago, violence broke out in Libya. Libya’s response was the harshest yet, with reports that the armed forces are shooting their people. Equity markets fell significantly yesterday.
Initial concerns of food inflation triggered unrest; spreading to potential oilsupply disruptions. A supply scare is developing and would have been the main reason stoking fears in equity markets. Crude oil price jumped to its highest in more than two years as Libya’s unrest stoked concerns that crude supplies will be disrupted. Libya is the eighth-largest oil producer among those with OPEC quotas. Al Jazeera reported that Libya’s Nafoora oil field has stopped producing because of a labour strike. Libya, by itself, should not cause a major supply scare. The scare is Bahrain, where protests have been provoked by discontent among the majority Shiite Muslim population, sparking concerns that the violence will eventually spill into neighboring Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia holds one-fifth of the world’s oil and counts among its neighbours - Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen and Jordan – a growing list of countries experiencing unrest.
Market reaction
Market reaction. The FSSTI is down 5.6% month to date, down 2.8% in the past three days. North Asian markets have been sold down even more. For the FSSTI, offshore & marine support services, transport, property, commodities and plantation stocks have been sold down the most. Banks, telcos and REITs have fallen less than the market.
Stocks with connections to Africa
Winners and losers. With the Middle East/Africa contagion yet to play out, there are two groups to avoid. First, stocks with existing contracts or infrastructure projects in the region; such contracts could be at risk of not being recognised, should regime change happen. Second, stocks with oil as a significant cost component would be bogged down by negative sentiment should the unrest spread. We list the stocks that have any form of connection with the Middle East/Africa bloc though we also highlight that some concerns might be overblown. We expect market weakness to sustain in the short term, with follow-on concerns that rising oil prices will hurt global growth. Clearly, markets have ignored improving economic numbers in the US and Europe as such concerns mount. Our work on Singapore-listed stocks (with links to MENA and Africa) suggests that the current MENA situation will have a limited impact until unrest spreads to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. We deem this less likely because: 1) these countries are richer with oil money; 2) part of the wealth is being shared directly with the populations; 3) their population bases are smaller; and 4) they frequently have a higher composition of foreign workers, attracted by jobs. Instead, regimes in West Africa and the southern states are more similar to the North African states that are now being toppled. If any, we believe such unrest is more likely to spread to West Africa. An assessment of Singapore-listed stocks that we cover, with direct MENA exposure or with significant fuel exposure, follows.
Other exposure. Second-tier O&M companies, commodities & plantations and transport companies, other index stocks with marginal MENA exposure include:
• CapitaLand: 3.2% of GAV in the Middle East
• DBS: Only exposure is through Islamic Bank of Asia. All the relevant NPLs have been recognised almost a year ago. No further investments in IBA will be made. Its mandate has been changed to operation as a pure merchant bank.
• Keppel Land: 0.5% of GAV
• NOL: MENA is not a large source of origin or destination traffic. If the Suez Canal is closed (unlikely), this will be positive for container freight rates.
• SIA: MENA forms a very small proportion of revenue, with the most important hub being Dubai. The threat from rising jet fuel prices is a negative. A US$% increase in jet fuel price will cut earnings by 6.5% to 11.8%.
• SingTel: It has a 30.8% stake in Bharti which has a 100% stake in Bharti Africa (formerly Zain Africa). However, Bharti does not have operations in MENA countries that are facing unrest. It does have operations in Chad and Niger, immediately south of Algeria and Libya.
Valuation and recommendation
Excerpts from Singapore Navigator 2011. Our FSSTI bottom-up target of 3,560 is unchanged; our Overweight rating on Singapore remains. Our target implies 1.9x CY11 P/BV (slightly above mean) and 14.4x CY12 P/E (below mean). Back in December, we wrote that “As the world adjusts to bipolar growth, some common trends cut across regions... We believe QE2 has the dangerous potential of widening the wealth gap…. We anticipate a climate where the dollar is de-based, asset prices and raw material costs inflate, but not necessarily wages, at least not in the same quantum... In our opinion, the bigger risk in this global trend is social unrest, be it strikes, a political tilt to the left, trade protectionist governments and/or rising protectionism.”
When we wrote the above, the regions we had in mind were the US, Europe and China. Unexpectedly, it was MENA that blew up first in 2011. We believe the current bout of weakness will take a few weeks to clear. Governments in each country have unspoken, social contracts to take care of their people. Social unrest breaks out when governments: 1) do not have the means to do so (e.g. UK, PIIGS, US?); 2) find it politically difficult to do so (e.g. Germany); or 3) simply will not act (e.g. MENA). Others grapple with rising living costs that might precipitate unrest. China, in its battle with food inflation, has shown a willingness to cope with the problem before it reaches a tipping point. Overshadowed by all that is going on in Libya over the weekend, an election loss by German Chancellor Angela Merkel highlights that even healthy sovereigns have a tough job balancing the need to contain the EU sovereign debt crisis with maintaining popular support. Governments in southern peripheral Europe still have an ongoing job to balance austerity drives with strains on their working populations.
Period of weakness is one to buy into, not run away from. We believe that current concerns will take a while to be resolved, while providing an excellent buying opportunity in 1H11. Excess liquidity remains and will continue to drive valuation multiples, we believe. FSSTI is now trading below its mean valuation. In our opinion, the likely outcome of the recent chain of events is: 1) a change in governments in affected MENA states, and the possibility of the unrest spreading south; 2) no change to the ruling party in Saudi Arabia; 3) a more watchful Chinese government on the imported effects of QE2; 4) a more sensitive Europe to the hardship of its peoples in its austerity drives; and 5) the US pressured to end QE earlier.
Our preferred sector calls in Singapore were Banks, Offshore & Marine (O&M) and Plantations. The first two remain but we recently downgraded Plantations on: 1) the view that CPO prices are likely to peak soon; and 2) steep valuations. Banks remain attractive for their below-mean valuations and the likelihood of an earlier end to an abnormally-low interest-rate environment. DBS is our top pick, even though it has been an outperformer YTD. Keppel Corp remains our top pick in the O&M sector. Venture offers structural-change potential with good free-cash-flow generation. OUE, and Keppel Land remain our preferred exposure to Singapore’s remaking. The only stock in our top-10 list that has been swapped out is SIA, with CWT, on concerns over escalating oil prices.
Crises are usually great times to bottom-pick; the issue is timing. For that reason, we do not advocate buying REITs and defensive stocks in this sell-down. In Figure 4, we provide a list of stocks that CIMB believes are fundamentally sound which we would bottom-pick in this sell-down, and the reasons why.
Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:24/02/11
OVERWEIGHT Maintained
3,001.9 @23/02/11
Target Index: 3,560
The MENA connection and its implications
• Maintain Overweight on FSSTI and 3,560 end-CY11 FSSTI target. Our FSSTI bottom-up target of 3,560 is unchanged. So is our Overweight rating on Singapore. Our target implies 1.9x CY11 P/BV (slightly above mean) and 14.4x CY12 P/E (below mean). Back in December, we wrote that the bigger risk among developing trends was social unrest. In the past week, the market tone has swung all the way to fear as more MENA countries are added to the growing list of problem states. The fear right now is not what will develop in these countries but whether the unrest will spread to Saudi Arabia. In such an event, a major disruption to oil supplies will almost certainly trigger a spike in crude oil prices. With an inflation-bubbling environment, that would almost certainly guarantee a synchronised global slowdown. Our thoughts are that there are enough differences among Saudi Arabia, UAE and other dictatorial states to prevent this scenario. Hence, this sell-down should eventually turn out to be a buying opportunity over the next few weeks.
• Losers and winners. We scan our whole universe to identify the stocks with MENA connections and the stocks with oil-price links, to sieve the potential winners and losers. The stocks with the most MENA links are CSE Global, Hiap Seng, Hyflux, Keppel Corp, Mewah, Olam, Rotary Engineering, Sembcorp Industries, Tiger Airways and Wilmar. Other than Hyflux which has Algeria and Libya links, the others are mostly exposed to the oil-rich states of Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the UAE. The hit to these companies is not obvious for now, unless contagion spreads to these states. In that event, the potential key losers are CSE Global, Hiap Seng, Rotary, Olam, Sembcorp Industries and Tiger Airways. A further spike in crude oil prices and further inflation will be twin knock-on events, whereby markets would sell down further and winners would be hard to identify. In a more stable climate thereafter, winners should be Keppel Corp, SembMarine, DBS, OCBC, UOB.
• The bottom-picking list. For traders who can’t wait to buy something after the recent sell-down, the stocks we are comfortable to take a bet on are Midas, OUE, Amtek, UOL, Keppel Land, STX OSV, Mewah, and DBS.
The MENA connections and its implications
The story so far. A street vendor setting himself on fire in Tunisia, after police confiscated his vegetable cart, provided the immediate spark for protests in Tunisia. Mohamed Bouazizi’s self-immolation merely served as a catalyst for an uprising. The underlying conditions were there, namely high unemployment, food inflation, corruption, a lack of freedom of speech and poor living conditions. A month after Tunisia blew up, Egypt was the next to follow. Their protests inspired similar actions across the Arab world; the Egyptian revolution subsequently led to the ousting of Egypt's long-time president Hosni Mubarak. Concurrently, protests took place in Algeria, Yemen, Jordan, Pakistan, Iran, Algeria, Bahrain, and Morocco. The threads linking these events are similar: long-time government corruption and rising hardship for the people. Three days ago, violence broke out in Libya. Libya’s response was the harshest yet, with reports that the armed forces are shooting their people. Equity markets fell significantly yesterday.
Initial concerns of food inflation triggered unrest; spreading to potential oilsupply disruptions. A supply scare is developing and would have been the main reason stoking fears in equity markets. Crude oil price jumped to its highest in more than two years as Libya’s unrest stoked concerns that crude supplies will be disrupted. Libya is the eighth-largest oil producer among those with OPEC quotas. Al Jazeera reported that Libya’s Nafoora oil field has stopped producing because of a labour strike. Libya, by itself, should not cause a major supply scare. The scare is Bahrain, where protests have been provoked by discontent among the majority Shiite Muslim population, sparking concerns that the violence will eventually spill into neighboring Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia holds one-fifth of the world’s oil and counts among its neighbours - Egypt, Bahrain, Yemen and Jordan – a growing list of countries experiencing unrest.
Market reaction
Market reaction. The FSSTI is down 5.6% month to date, down 2.8% in the past three days. North Asian markets have been sold down even more. For the FSSTI, offshore & marine support services, transport, property, commodities and plantation stocks have been sold down the most. Banks, telcos and REITs have fallen less than the market.
Stocks with connections to Africa
Winners and losers. With the Middle East/Africa contagion yet to play out, there are two groups to avoid. First, stocks with existing contracts or infrastructure projects in the region; such contracts could be at risk of not being recognised, should regime change happen. Second, stocks with oil as a significant cost component would be bogged down by negative sentiment should the unrest spread. We list the stocks that have any form of connection with the Middle East/Africa bloc though we also highlight that some concerns might be overblown. We expect market weakness to sustain in the short term, with follow-on concerns that rising oil prices will hurt global growth. Clearly, markets have ignored improving economic numbers in the US and Europe as such concerns mount. Our work on Singapore-listed stocks (with links to MENA and Africa) suggests that the current MENA situation will have a limited impact until unrest spreads to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. We deem this less likely because: 1) these countries are richer with oil money; 2) part of the wealth is being shared directly with the populations; 3) their population bases are smaller; and 4) they frequently have a higher composition of foreign workers, attracted by jobs. Instead, regimes in West Africa and the southern states are more similar to the North African states that are now being toppled. If any, we believe such unrest is more likely to spread to West Africa. An assessment of Singapore-listed stocks that we cover, with direct MENA exposure or with significant fuel exposure, follows.
Other exposure. Second-tier O&M companies, commodities & plantations and transport companies, other index stocks with marginal MENA exposure include:
• CapitaLand: 3.2% of GAV in the Middle East
• DBS: Only exposure is through Islamic Bank of Asia. All the relevant NPLs have been recognised almost a year ago. No further investments in IBA will be made. Its mandate has been changed to operation as a pure merchant bank.
• Keppel Land: 0.5% of GAV
• NOL: MENA is not a large source of origin or destination traffic. If the Suez Canal is closed (unlikely), this will be positive for container freight rates.
• SIA: MENA forms a very small proportion of revenue, with the most important hub being Dubai. The threat from rising jet fuel prices is a negative. A US$% increase in jet fuel price will cut earnings by 6.5% to 11.8%.
• SingTel: It has a 30.8% stake in Bharti which has a 100% stake in Bharti Africa (formerly Zain Africa). However, Bharti does not have operations in MENA countries that are facing unrest. It does have operations in Chad and Niger, immediately south of Algeria and Libya.
Valuation and recommendation
Excerpts from Singapore Navigator 2011. Our FSSTI bottom-up target of 3,560 is unchanged; our Overweight rating on Singapore remains. Our target implies 1.9x CY11 P/BV (slightly above mean) and 14.4x CY12 P/E (below mean). Back in December, we wrote that “As the world adjusts to bipolar growth, some common trends cut across regions... We believe QE2 has the dangerous potential of widening the wealth gap…. We anticipate a climate where the dollar is de-based, asset prices and raw material costs inflate, but not necessarily wages, at least not in the same quantum... In our opinion, the bigger risk in this global trend is social unrest, be it strikes, a political tilt to the left, trade protectionist governments and/or rising protectionism.”
When we wrote the above, the regions we had in mind were the US, Europe and China. Unexpectedly, it was MENA that blew up first in 2011. We believe the current bout of weakness will take a few weeks to clear. Governments in each country have unspoken, social contracts to take care of their people. Social unrest breaks out when governments: 1) do not have the means to do so (e.g. UK, PIIGS, US?); 2) find it politically difficult to do so (e.g. Germany); or 3) simply will not act (e.g. MENA). Others grapple with rising living costs that might precipitate unrest. China, in its battle with food inflation, has shown a willingness to cope with the problem before it reaches a tipping point. Overshadowed by all that is going on in Libya over the weekend, an election loss by German Chancellor Angela Merkel highlights that even healthy sovereigns have a tough job balancing the need to contain the EU sovereign debt crisis with maintaining popular support. Governments in southern peripheral Europe still have an ongoing job to balance austerity drives with strains on their working populations.
Period of weakness is one to buy into, not run away from. We believe that current concerns will take a while to be resolved, while providing an excellent buying opportunity in 1H11. Excess liquidity remains and will continue to drive valuation multiples, we believe. FSSTI is now trading below its mean valuation. In our opinion, the likely outcome of the recent chain of events is: 1) a change in governments in affected MENA states, and the possibility of the unrest spreading south; 2) no change to the ruling party in Saudi Arabia; 3) a more watchful Chinese government on the imported effects of QE2; 4) a more sensitive Europe to the hardship of its peoples in its austerity drives; and 5) the US pressured to end QE earlier.
Our preferred sector calls in Singapore were Banks, Offshore & Marine (O&M) and Plantations. The first two remain but we recently downgraded Plantations on: 1) the view that CPO prices are likely to peak soon; and 2) steep valuations. Banks remain attractive for their below-mean valuations and the likelihood of an earlier end to an abnormally-low interest-rate environment. DBS is our top pick, even though it has been an outperformer YTD. Keppel Corp remains our top pick in the O&M sector. Venture offers structural-change potential with good free-cash-flow generation. OUE, and Keppel Land remain our preferred exposure to Singapore’s remaking. The only stock in our top-10 list that has been swapped out is SIA, with CWT, on concerns over escalating oil prices.
Crises are usually great times to bottom-pick; the issue is timing. For that reason, we do not advocate buying REITs and defensive stocks in this sell-down. In Figure 4, we provide a list of stocks that CIMB believes are fundamentally sound which we would bottom-pick in this sell-down, and the reasons why.
Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:24/02/11
AiT Growing presence in Hyderabad (DBS)
Ascendas India Trust
BUY S$0.935
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.13 (Prev S$ 1.08)
Growing presence in Hyderabad
• Proposed acquisition of portfolio of 5 buildings in Hyderabad
• Positives seen in deal; earnings accretion
• BUY Call maintained, TP adjusted to S$1.13 based on DDM
Deepens Hyderabad exposure. a-itrust proposes purchasing a portfolio of up to 5 buildings (2.2m sqft, +34% portfolio SBA) in Hyderabad, India for a total consideration of INR 8.5bn. The properties are located in an established IT Park – Hitec City 2 Special Economic Zone (“HTC2 SEZ”). The portfolio consists of two operating buildings, immediately acquired for INR 1.7bn (S$50.4m), while the remaining three are to be acquired progressively when they complete over 2012-2014. Through the vendor, a-itrust also has a right of first refusal to acquire up to another 1.16m sqft of SBA ( 4 buildings) in the future.
Positives on this deal. We are positive on this acquisition, aitrust will boost its portfolio in Hyderabad, enabling them to enjoy economies of scale, while the impact on distributions should be immediately accretive as operating buildings are currently trading at 100% occupancy, with established MNCs as tenants. We estimate initial yield to be c10% for the two operating buildings, comparing favorably against its implied yield of 8.5%. An attractive pipeline awaits a-itrust (3 pipeline acquisitions, 4 in a ROFR) , underpinning expected steady portfolio growth in the mid-longer term. We raise our earnings by c1-3% over FY12-13F, assuming a-itrust fund the acquisitions of three buildings (completed and under construction) via debt.
Growth visibility strengthens, BUY, TP S$1.13. We continue to like a-itrust for its growth trajectory. The trust offers an attractive DPU CAGR of 13% over FY11-13, underpinned by a growing portfolio. Currently offers a prospective yield of 7.3- 9.3%. Maintain BUY.
Proposed acquisition of 5 buildings in Hyderabad
Ascendas India Trust (“a-itrust”) has proposed acquiring up to 5 buildings from Phoenix Infocity Pvt Ltd. The properties are located in Hitec City 2 Special Economic Zone (HTC2 SEZ) in Hyderabad, India.
5 buildings to be acquired periodically over next 3 years. The total purchase consideration is estimated to be INR 8.5bn (S$ 247.8m). Out of the 5 buildings, 2 buildings are currently operating at full capacity, with a total Super Built-Up Area (“SBA”) of 0.4m sqft, worth INR 1.7bn(S$50.4m). The remaining 3 buildings, with a total SBA of 1.75m sqft, will be acquired by a-itrust when construction is completed and leased, which is estimated to be over 2012-2014. Pricing is currently estimated at INR 6.8bn (S$197.4m). a-itrust has the flexibility to acquire these 3 buildings when they are partially leased by paying for the pro-rata leased space and the balance as the building fills up.
ROFR for 4 properties from the vendor. Through the vendor, Phoenix Infocity, a-itrust has a right of first refusal to acquire up to a further 4 buildings (1.16 sq ft) in HTC2 SEZ when these buildings are offered for sale in the future. This will further augment a-itrust’s growth pipeline in the longer term, entrenching it as a major landlord in Hyderabad.
Merits of the deal
We see positives with this acquisition, as a-itrust will enjoy:
1. Enlarged scale & offering in Hyderabad
Synergies & deepened position within Hyderabad, given that HTC2 SEZ is located in close proximity to its current portfolio in Cyberpearl and The V. Over the past 8 quarters, we noted that occupancy levels at both these locations have remained between 94-100%. Implying strong demand for space for good quality buildings in prime locations. Market occupancy remains high at 97% for Grade A office locations in Hyderabad.
The enlarged portfolio will also enable a-itrust to (i) achieve economies of scale as they will be able to share fixed costs and enjoy costs savings when renegotiating service and maintenance contracts. In addition, the operating buildings are the first SEZ properties in its portfolio, other than completing Voyager in ITPB, which will enable a-itrust to better cater to the needs of their tenants and target a greater universe of potential clients.
2. Enhanced portfolio & earnings quality, diversified income sources.
Operating buildings are already fully leased, and tenants are well-established multinational corporations like Cognizant Technologies Solutions, HCL Technologies, iGate Global Solutions, implying strong credit profiles and income stability.
For rental renewals, given that the operating buildings were only completed just 3 years back in 2008, we believe that tenants there will choose to renew, as this will be their first renewal cycle and we understand that the tenants have invested substantially to fit out their premises.
3. Enhanced acquisition pipeline.
A-itrust have recently completed the construction of over 1.2m sqft of SBA in ITPB and ITPC, and will soon be taking delivery of a 0.5m building – Voyager in Bangalore, which is estimated to finish construction by the middle of 2011, bringing total portfolio SBA to 6.4m. The acquisition of up to over 3m sqft of SBA (assuming operating, future acquisitions and buildings in the ROFR) further boost its acquisition pipeline by another 52% if aitrust executed on it.
4. Earnings accretion expected.
The acquisition of the two operating buildings is expected to be immediately accretive to the trust. The expected initial yield is estimated to be c10.8% (based NPI growth of S$5.4m / initial cost of S$50.4m) and compares favorably against the current portfolio implied yield of c8.5%.
We understand that a-itrust has already secured the necessary debt funding for the acquisitions. However, we have only assumed the acquisition of three out of five buildings in our numbers, (two operating buildings and one building under construction), given the current visibility of completion of these buildings, while the remaining two buildings have not yet started construction.
Assuming a cost of debt of 7% and fully funded by debt, we estimate FY12/13 DPU impact to be between c1% - 3%. Gearing will increase to c28% post the transaction for the 3 buildings.
Source/转贴/Extract/: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:25/02/11
BUY S$0.935
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.13 (Prev S$ 1.08)
Growing presence in Hyderabad
• Proposed acquisition of portfolio of 5 buildings in Hyderabad
• Positives seen in deal; earnings accretion
• BUY Call maintained, TP adjusted to S$1.13 based on DDM
Deepens Hyderabad exposure. a-itrust proposes purchasing a portfolio of up to 5 buildings (2.2m sqft, +34% portfolio SBA) in Hyderabad, India for a total consideration of INR 8.5bn. The properties are located in an established IT Park – Hitec City 2 Special Economic Zone (“HTC2 SEZ”). The portfolio consists of two operating buildings, immediately acquired for INR 1.7bn (S$50.4m), while the remaining three are to be acquired progressively when they complete over 2012-2014. Through the vendor, a-itrust also has a right of first refusal to acquire up to another 1.16m sqft of SBA ( 4 buildings) in the future.
Positives on this deal. We are positive on this acquisition, aitrust will boost its portfolio in Hyderabad, enabling them to enjoy economies of scale, while the impact on distributions should be immediately accretive as operating buildings are currently trading at 100% occupancy, with established MNCs as tenants. We estimate initial yield to be c10% for the two operating buildings, comparing favorably against its implied yield of 8.5%. An attractive pipeline awaits a-itrust (3 pipeline acquisitions, 4 in a ROFR) , underpinning expected steady portfolio growth in the mid-longer term. We raise our earnings by c1-3% over FY12-13F, assuming a-itrust fund the acquisitions of three buildings (completed and under construction) via debt.
Growth visibility strengthens, BUY, TP S$1.13. We continue to like a-itrust for its growth trajectory. The trust offers an attractive DPU CAGR of 13% over FY11-13, underpinned by a growing portfolio. Currently offers a prospective yield of 7.3- 9.3%. Maintain BUY.
Proposed acquisition of 5 buildings in Hyderabad
Ascendas India Trust (“a-itrust”) has proposed acquiring up to 5 buildings from Phoenix Infocity Pvt Ltd. The properties are located in Hitec City 2 Special Economic Zone (HTC2 SEZ) in Hyderabad, India.
5 buildings to be acquired periodically over next 3 years. The total purchase consideration is estimated to be INR 8.5bn (S$ 247.8m). Out of the 5 buildings, 2 buildings are currently operating at full capacity, with a total Super Built-Up Area (“SBA”) of 0.4m sqft, worth INR 1.7bn(S$50.4m). The remaining 3 buildings, with a total SBA of 1.75m sqft, will be acquired by a-itrust when construction is completed and leased, which is estimated to be over 2012-2014. Pricing is currently estimated at INR 6.8bn (S$197.4m). a-itrust has the flexibility to acquire these 3 buildings when they are partially leased by paying for the pro-rata leased space and the balance as the building fills up.
ROFR for 4 properties from the vendor. Through the vendor, Phoenix Infocity, a-itrust has a right of first refusal to acquire up to a further 4 buildings (1.16 sq ft) in HTC2 SEZ when these buildings are offered for sale in the future. This will further augment a-itrust’s growth pipeline in the longer term, entrenching it as a major landlord in Hyderabad.
Merits of the deal
We see positives with this acquisition, as a-itrust will enjoy:
1. Enlarged scale & offering in Hyderabad
Synergies & deepened position within Hyderabad, given that HTC2 SEZ is located in close proximity to its current portfolio in Cyberpearl and The V. Over the past 8 quarters, we noted that occupancy levels at both these locations have remained between 94-100%. Implying strong demand for space for good quality buildings in prime locations. Market occupancy remains high at 97% for Grade A office locations in Hyderabad.
The enlarged portfolio will also enable a-itrust to (i) achieve economies of scale as they will be able to share fixed costs and enjoy costs savings when renegotiating service and maintenance contracts. In addition, the operating buildings are the first SEZ properties in its portfolio, other than completing Voyager in ITPB, which will enable a-itrust to better cater to the needs of their tenants and target a greater universe of potential clients.
2. Enhanced portfolio & earnings quality, diversified income sources.
Operating buildings are already fully leased, and tenants are well-established multinational corporations like Cognizant Technologies Solutions, HCL Technologies, iGate Global Solutions, implying strong credit profiles and income stability.
For rental renewals, given that the operating buildings were only completed just 3 years back in 2008, we believe that tenants there will choose to renew, as this will be their first renewal cycle and we understand that the tenants have invested substantially to fit out their premises.
3. Enhanced acquisition pipeline.
A-itrust have recently completed the construction of over 1.2m sqft of SBA in ITPB and ITPC, and will soon be taking delivery of a 0.5m building – Voyager in Bangalore, which is estimated to finish construction by the middle of 2011, bringing total portfolio SBA to 6.4m. The acquisition of up to over 3m sqft of SBA (assuming operating, future acquisitions and buildings in the ROFR) further boost its acquisition pipeline by another 52% if aitrust executed on it.
4. Earnings accretion expected.
The acquisition of the two operating buildings is expected to be immediately accretive to the trust. The expected initial yield is estimated to be c10.8% (based NPI growth of S$5.4m / initial cost of S$50.4m) and compares favorably against the current portfolio implied yield of c8.5%.
We understand that a-itrust has already secured the necessary debt funding for the acquisitions. However, we have only assumed the acquisition of three out of five buildings in our numbers, (two operating buildings and one building under construction), given the current visibility of completion of these buildings, while the remaining two buildings have not yet started construction.
Assuming a cost of debt of 7% and fully funded by debt, we estimate FY12/13 DPU impact to be between c1% - 3%. Gearing will increase to c28% post the transaction for the 3 buildings.
Source/转贴/Extract/: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:25/02/11
Oil Prices - What if prices rise further? (CIMB)
• Oil up on tensions in the Middle-East. Brent crude oil price rose to a 29-month high of US$111.83/bbl on 23 Feb as tension in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) fanned fears of supply disruption in the region. Given that Saudi Arabia, Libya and Iran contribute 19.0% of total global oil production, a major disruption in these countries would have a far-reaching impact on global oil prices. At this juncture, our regional oil analyst’s baseline oil price estimate is US$95/bbl for this year and US$100/bbl for 2012, assuming a limited impact on global supply. In the worst case, the oil price could spike to US$150/bbl or more.
• Negative net effect on global economy. A sustained high oil price would put a damper on economic activity and corporate earnings and fuel inflation. It also has implications for the financial markets, notably equity, exchange rate and the government’s fiscal budget.
1) Growth outlook – The impact may play out over a period of time if the uptrend in oil prices is gradual. Every US$10 rise in the oil price could lop 0.3-1.0% pts off GDP growth for Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, China and Hong Kong.
2) Inflation – The impact on inflation is more marked given the relatively high composition of fuel (0.7%-11.6%) and related transportation (9.1%-26.8%) in the CPI basket. Given the surging food prices and raw materials, the indirect impact could be even larger. However, some governments may continue to provide subsidies to cool political and social tension. Overall inflation will be 0.2-2.5% pts higher for the economies under review.
3) Interest rate – Policymakers will be caught in a dilemma as the oil supply shock could itself exert a moderating impact on growth and domestic demand. If the policymakers tighten rates further, it could slow down growth.
4) Fiscal imbalances – High oil prices would add pressure on government budgets due to higher subsidies for Indonesia, Malaysia and China.
5) Equity and debt valuations for the oil-importing countries would be revised downwards and vice versa for oil-exporting countries. As for exchange rates, some central banks may tolerate a stronger currency to mitigate imported inflation pressures.
• Ranking of country risk. Our analysis suggests that Indonesia is the most exposed to the risk of a sharp rise in oil price (bloated fuel subsidy, quicker pace of inflation and higher interest rates). Singapore faces more measured risks as it is buffered by its services sector as well as a strong currency. Both Hong Kong and China will not be affected much. Thailand will be more affected. The potential costs are smaller for Malaysia as it is a net exporter of oil.
Oil up on tensions in the Middle-East
From a low of US$41.76/bbl at end-Dec 2008 amidst the US subprime crisis, oil price climbed to an average of US$52.22 in 1H09 and US$71.57 in 2H09. It gained further momentum in 2010, averaging US$77.71 in 1H10 and US$81.67 in 2H10. In recent weeks, oil prices have been creeping up. The price of Brent crude oil rose to a 29- month high of US$111.83/bbl on 23 Feb as tension in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) fanned fears of supply disruption in the region. Markets will continue to feel the strain of the Middle East uprising despite Saudi Arabia’s assertion that world supply of oil is adequate at the moment. Although supply and demand dynamics should support oil prices at around US$90, unexpected events such as a supply shock could cause prices to skyrocket again.
While it is difficult to predict how the events in the Middle East will pan out, the current price increases and the possibility of more increases have drawn attention yet again to the threat they pose to the global economy. Given that Saudi Arabia, Libya and Iran contribute 19.0% of total global oil production, a major disruption in these countries would have a far-reaching impact on global oil prices. At this juncture, our regional oil analyst’s baseline oil price estimate is US$95/bbl for this year and US$100/bbl for 2012, assuming a limited impact on global supply. In the worst case, oil price could spike to US$150/bbl or more.
The last time oil prices skyrocketed and threatened to derail the global economy was between late Aug 2007 and early Jul 2008. The spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrelled from US$58.32/bbl on 3 Jan 2007 to US$145.29/bbl on 3-4 Jul 2008.
Quantifying the impact on Asian economies
The high oil price in 2008, which was compounded by the US subprime crisis, dealt a double whammy to the global economy as it pushed the major advanced economies and most developing Asia economies into a synchronised global recession in 2009. Thanks to the extraordinary monetary stimulus, massive fiscal injection globally as well as financial stabilisation policies, the global economy stabilised and recovered in 2010. But the recovery is still not firmly rooted for the advanced economies due to the multi-year develeraging, high unemployment and struggling recovery of the housing sector. Peripheral euro area economies continue to face sovereign debt problems. Asian economies led the global recovery, powered by China and India.
After a bumper year in 2010, growth in emerging Asia will ease to a more sustainable pace in 2011 due to the ebbing effects of inventory restocking and fiscal pump-priming effects as well as the gradual normalisation of interest rates. Export growth in most Asian economies started to cool off in 4Q10 as external demand eased. Stubbornly high food prices, raw materials and high oil prices are stoking inflation in China, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand. At this juncture, inflation pressure, though rising in Malaysia, is still manageable compared to its regional peers.
Our review of the key macroeconomic variables for the six economies we cover –
China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand – take into account (i) the still-uneven pace of recovery in the advanced economies, (ii) a US$10/bbl rise in oil price; and (iii) domestic risks.
The impact of high oil prices on these economies depends on the extent of each country’s oil intensity and dependence on oil imports. High oil prices will have a positive impact on net exporting countries though these benefits could be offset by negative effects elsewhere. For net oil importing countries, the impact will depend how much they consume. Oil price effects are transmitted through two main channels (i) On the demand side, higher oil prices reduce households’ real incomes, prompting them to cut back consumption. (ii) On the supply side, an increase in oil prices raises production costs and induces firms to reduce output.
Impact on GDP growth
As most of these economies have recovered strongly in the post global financial crisis period and are fundamentally solid, we expect the lagged impact of high oil prices to be felt more in 2012. The impact may play out over a period of time if the uptrend in oil prices is gradual.
The impact on GDP measures both first-round effects and second-round effects. A negative second-round effect would occur if high oil prices reduced major advanced economies’ incomes and fed through to the consumption of Asian goods and services. Countries with varying degree of fiscal flexibility could implement short-term measures to counteract the impact of high oil prices on domestic demand. These include temporary targeted subsidies or increased aid to protect the lower-income households.
The impact on overall GDP growth is likely to be measured for net oil exporter Malaysia relative to other countries which are net importers of oil. On the demand side, the impact on household incomes will be more significant in Singapore, Thailand, China and Hong Kong due to the complete pass-through of high oil prices at the pumps. Most economies have taken practical measures to cushion the lower-income group from high commodity, food and energy prices. These measures include partial subsidy for food prices, administered price controls on essential food items, increase in minimum wages and financial assistance such as cash payments and rebates for needy citizens. Meanwhile, household incomes in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia also benefited from an upswing in commodities and farm prices, which helps to offset the rise in inflation and contributes to domestic demand. However, the rise in production costs from items such as fertiliser and fuel has negated the positive income effect.
In summary, every US$10 rise in the oil price could lop 0.3-1.0% pts off GDP growth for Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, China and Hong Kong.
Impact on fiscal budget
Rising oil prices undermine fiscal sustainability as outlays on fuel subsidies go up with the rising prices. The upshot is larger fiscal deficits, failing which government spending may have to be cut back. Policymakers in developing Asia implemented gradual fiscal reform of their fuel price policies to ensure a manageable impact on inflation and households’ income. Malaysia started to reduce subsidies on sugar, fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in 2010. Higher oil prices’ spillover effects on other industrial inputs will also affect the fiscal budget due to the rising cost of government projects.
Among these six economies, the governments of Indonesia and Malaysia primarily rely on budgetary operations to finance their subsidies. In Indonesia, the projected budget for fuel subsidies is around Rp95.9tr based on an oil price of US$80/bbl. There’s approximately Rp200-300bn additional deficit per US$1/bbl higher oil price. The government has proposed to start limiting subsidised oil for private cars in Jakarta at the end of Mar 2011 before implementing the policy across the nation by 2013 in an effort to reduce the high burden of energy subsidies on the state budget. However, it was recently reported that the government may postpone the implementation of this policy to avoid unrest.
In Thailand, the government will use THB5bn of the THB25bn oil fund to subsidise diesel retail prices over the next three months to prevent a spike in the cost of living and curb inflation. With the general elections expected to take place this year, we think that the government is likely to adopt short-term mitigating measures to ease the burden of households. The cabinet has extended measures to ease the cost of living for low income households until Jun. The measures were due to expire in Feb. In Malaysia, the government initiated a fuel subsidy rationalisation in 2010 in an effort to consolidate the budget deficit. The 2011 Budget earmarked 6.3% of the total operating expenditure (OE) or RM10.3bn in subsidies for LPG, diesel and petroleum based on an average oil price of US$85/bbl. If the oil price rises to US$130-140/bbl, the amount of subsidies could balloon to at least RM18bn-20bn. In 2008, the subsidy on fuel and petroleum-related products amounted to RM17.6bn or 11.4% of OE. The amount of oil revenue is estimated at RM59.4bn or 35.8% of total revenue in 2011. It is estimated that every US$1/bbl rise in crude oil prices would boost the federal government’s revenue by RM400m-450m over two years.
Impact on inflation
There is reason to be nervous about the inflationary pressures that are building up in many developing countries. As food and fuel are core elements in Asian household budgets, sustained price increases not only erode consumers’ real purchasing power but will also spill over to general inflation pressures.
Headline inflation in the six economies has accelerated in recent months, stoked by the continued strength of domestic demand and rising food and fuel prices. Topping the inflation league is Indonesia at 7.0% in Jan 2011, followed by Singapore (5.5%), China (4.9%), Hong Kong (3.9%) and Thailand (3.0% in Dec 2010). Malaysia’s inflation though rising to 2.4% in Jan is benign relative to its regional peers. This was partly due to administrative restraints that hold prices of essential items in check.
Fuel and transport have a 9.1% weight in CPI in Hong Kong, 19.1% in Indonesia, 14.9% in Malaysia, 16.0% in Singapore, 26.8% in Thailand and 9.9% in China. Every US$10/bbl rise in oil price would add 0.2-2.5% pts to CPI growth assuming full-pass through or partial pass-through in the case of Malaysia and Indonesia. For Malaysia, RON97 petrol price follows a “managed float” market pricing while RON95 petrol, which makes up about 88% of total consumption, is still under subsidy. In 2010-early 2011, the government hiked RON97 and RON95 by 45 sen/litre and 10 sen/litre a couple of times to RM2.50/litre and RM1.90/litre, respectively. The current subsidy rate for RON95 is estimated at 40-60 sen/litre based on the current oil price of US$96- 97. Having learned from the bitter lesson in 2008, the government is likely to stick to a small-step reduction in fuel subsidy to avoid a massive fuel price adjustment, which would lead to widespread spillover price increases for other goods and services. In 2008, inflation accelerated to a 28-year high of 8.5% yoy in Jul-Aug 2008 and averaged 5.4% in 2008. In Indonesia, we factor in a 30% hike in fuel prices, and this will push inflation to 9.7% in 2011, up 2.5% pts from our baseline estimate of 7.2%.
Interest rate and currency outlook
Policymakers will be caught in a dilemma in the event of sustained rises in oil price as an oil supply shock could itself exert a moderating impact on growth and domestic demand. If the policymakers tighten interest rates further, it could slow down growth. Faced with moderating growth prospects for this year, the central banks will have to strike a delicate balance between ensuring continued recovery and mitigating the inflation pressures. In 2008, Bank Indonesia and Bank of Thailand raised interest rates to temper the unprecedented rise in inflation but subsequently cut rates to avert an economic downturn sparked by the US subprime crisis. Despite the surge in inflation in 1H08, Malaysia’s central bank refrained from raising interest rates, having assessed that the weakening global growth and cost-driven inflation would moderate domestic economic growth.
Malaysia, Thailand and China started to normalise interest rates in 2010 while Indonesia followed suit in 2011 to combat the accelerating inflation. We see bigger risk for Bank Indonesia to tighten rate more aggressively if inflation accelerates due to rising oil prices. As for currencies, some central banks are willing to tolerate a stronger currency as part of their efforts to bring inflation under control. As international trade in the oil is denominated in the US dollar, the high oil price will increase demand for US dollars. This will weaken the currencies of net importers of oil. The Thai baht will be affected. The impact on the Hong Kong dollar, Malaysian ringgit and Chinese renminbi will be less.
Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:24/02/11
• Negative net effect on global economy. A sustained high oil price would put a damper on economic activity and corporate earnings and fuel inflation. It also has implications for the financial markets, notably equity, exchange rate and the government’s fiscal budget.
1) Growth outlook – The impact may play out over a period of time if the uptrend in oil prices is gradual. Every US$10 rise in the oil price could lop 0.3-1.0% pts off GDP growth for Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Thailand, China and Hong Kong.
2) Inflation – The impact on inflation is more marked given the relatively high composition of fuel (0.7%-11.6%) and related transportation (9.1%-26.8%) in the CPI basket. Given the surging food prices and raw materials, the indirect impact could be even larger. However, some governments may continue to provide subsidies to cool political and social tension. Overall inflation will be 0.2-2.5% pts higher for the economies under review.
3) Interest rate – Policymakers will be caught in a dilemma as the oil supply shock could itself exert a moderating impact on growth and domestic demand. If the policymakers tighten rates further, it could slow down growth.
4) Fiscal imbalances – High oil prices would add pressure on government budgets due to higher subsidies for Indonesia, Malaysia and China.
5) Equity and debt valuations for the oil-importing countries would be revised downwards and vice versa for oil-exporting countries. As for exchange rates, some central banks may tolerate a stronger currency to mitigate imported inflation pressures.
• Ranking of country risk. Our analysis suggests that Indonesia is the most exposed to the risk of a sharp rise in oil price (bloated fuel subsidy, quicker pace of inflation and higher interest rates). Singapore faces more measured risks as it is buffered by its services sector as well as a strong currency. Both Hong Kong and China will not be affected much. Thailand will be more affected. The potential costs are smaller for Malaysia as it is a net exporter of oil.
Oil up on tensions in the Middle-East
From a low of US$41.76/bbl at end-Dec 2008 amidst the US subprime crisis, oil price climbed to an average of US$52.22 in 1H09 and US$71.57 in 2H09. It gained further momentum in 2010, averaging US$77.71 in 1H10 and US$81.67 in 2H10. In recent weeks, oil prices have been creeping up. The price of Brent crude oil rose to a 29- month high of US$111.83/bbl on 23 Feb as tension in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) fanned fears of supply disruption in the region. Markets will continue to feel the strain of the Middle East uprising despite Saudi Arabia’s assertion that world supply of oil is adequate at the moment. Although supply and demand dynamics should support oil prices at around US$90, unexpected events such as a supply shock could cause prices to skyrocket again.
While it is difficult to predict how the events in the Middle East will pan out, the current price increases and the possibility of more increases have drawn attention yet again to the threat they pose to the global economy. Given that Saudi Arabia, Libya and Iran contribute 19.0% of total global oil production, a major disruption in these countries would have a far-reaching impact on global oil prices. At this juncture, our regional oil analyst’s baseline oil price estimate is US$95/bbl for this year and US$100/bbl for 2012, assuming a limited impact on global supply. In the worst case, oil price could spike to US$150/bbl or more.
The last time oil prices skyrocketed and threatened to derail the global economy was between late Aug 2007 and early Jul 2008. The spot price for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) barrelled from US$58.32/bbl on 3 Jan 2007 to US$145.29/bbl on 3-4 Jul 2008.
Quantifying the impact on Asian economies
The high oil price in 2008, which was compounded by the US subprime crisis, dealt a double whammy to the global economy as it pushed the major advanced economies and most developing Asia economies into a synchronised global recession in 2009. Thanks to the extraordinary monetary stimulus, massive fiscal injection globally as well as financial stabilisation policies, the global economy stabilised and recovered in 2010. But the recovery is still not firmly rooted for the advanced economies due to the multi-year develeraging, high unemployment and struggling recovery of the housing sector. Peripheral euro area economies continue to face sovereign debt problems. Asian economies led the global recovery, powered by China and India.
After a bumper year in 2010, growth in emerging Asia will ease to a more sustainable pace in 2011 due to the ebbing effects of inventory restocking and fiscal pump-priming effects as well as the gradual normalisation of interest rates. Export growth in most Asian economies started to cool off in 4Q10 as external demand eased. Stubbornly high food prices, raw materials and high oil prices are stoking inflation in China, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand. At this juncture, inflation pressure, though rising in Malaysia, is still manageable compared to its regional peers.
Our review of the key macroeconomic variables for the six economies we cover –
China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand – take into account (i) the still-uneven pace of recovery in the advanced economies, (ii) a US$10/bbl rise in oil price; and (iii) domestic risks.
The impact of high oil prices on these economies depends on the extent of each country’s oil intensity and dependence on oil imports. High oil prices will have a positive impact on net exporting countries though these benefits could be offset by negative effects elsewhere. For net oil importing countries, the impact will depend how much they consume. Oil price effects are transmitted through two main channels (i) On the demand side, higher oil prices reduce households’ real incomes, prompting them to cut back consumption. (ii) On the supply side, an increase in oil prices raises production costs and induces firms to reduce output.
Impact on GDP growth
As most of these economies have recovered strongly in the post global financial crisis period and are fundamentally solid, we expect the lagged impact of high oil prices to be felt more in 2012. The impact may play out over a period of time if the uptrend in oil prices is gradual.
The impact on GDP measures both first-round effects and second-round effects. A negative second-round effect would occur if high oil prices reduced major advanced economies’ incomes and fed through to the consumption of Asian goods and services. Countries with varying degree of fiscal flexibility could implement short-term measures to counteract the impact of high oil prices on domestic demand. These include temporary targeted subsidies or increased aid to protect the lower-income households.
The impact on overall GDP growth is likely to be measured for net oil exporter Malaysia relative to other countries which are net importers of oil. On the demand side, the impact on household incomes will be more significant in Singapore, Thailand, China and Hong Kong due to the complete pass-through of high oil prices at the pumps. Most economies have taken practical measures to cushion the lower-income group from high commodity, food and energy prices. These measures include partial subsidy for food prices, administered price controls on essential food items, increase in minimum wages and financial assistance such as cash payments and rebates for needy citizens. Meanwhile, household incomes in Malaysia, Thailand and Indonesia also benefited from an upswing in commodities and farm prices, which helps to offset the rise in inflation and contributes to domestic demand. However, the rise in production costs from items such as fertiliser and fuel has negated the positive income effect.
In summary, every US$10 rise in the oil price could lop 0.3-1.0% pts off GDP growth for Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, China and Hong Kong.
Impact on fiscal budget
Rising oil prices undermine fiscal sustainability as outlays on fuel subsidies go up with the rising prices. The upshot is larger fiscal deficits, failing which government spending may have to be cut back. Policymakers in developing Asia implemented gradual fiscal reform of their fuel price policies to ensure a manageable impact on inflation and households’ income. Malaysia started to reduce subsidies on sugar, fuel and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) in 2010. Higher oil prices’ spillover effects on other industrial inputs will also affect the fiscal budget due to the rising cost of government projects.
Among these six economies, the governments of Indonesia and Malaysia primarily rely on budgetary operations to finance their subsidies. In Indonesia, the projected budget for fuel subsidies is around Rp95.9tr based on an oil price of US$80/bbl. There’s approximately Rp200-300bn additional deficit per US$1/bbl higher oil price. The government has proposed to start limiting subsidised oil for private cars in Jakarta at the end of Mar 2011 before implementing the policy across the nation by 2013 in an effort to reduce the high burden of energy subsidies on the state budget. However, it was recently reported that the government may postpone the implementation of this policy to avoid unrest.
In Thailand, the government will use THB5bn of the THB25bn oil fund to subsidise diesel retail prices over the next three months to prevent a spike in the cost of living and curb inflation. With the general elections expected to take place this year, we think that the government is likely to adopt short-term mitigating measures to ease the burden of households. The cabinet has extended measures to ease the cost of living for low income households until Jun. The measures were due to expire in Feb. In Malaysia, the government initiated a fuel subsidy rationalisation in 2010 in an effort to consolidate the budget deficit. The 2011 Budget earmarked 6.3% of the total operating expenditure (OE) or RM10.3bn in subsidies for LPG, diesel and petroleum based on an average oil price of US$85/bbl. If the oil price rises to US$130-140/bbl, the amount of subsidies could balloon to at least RM18bn-20bn. In 2008, the subsidy on fuel and petroleum-related products amounted to RM17.6bn or 11.4% of OE. The amount of oil revenue is estimated at RM59.4bn or 35.8% of total revenue in 2011. It is estimated that every US$1/bbl rise in crude oil prices would boost the federal government’s revenue by RM400m-450m over two years.
Impact on inflation
There is reason to be nervous about the inflationary pressures that are building up in many developing countries. As food and fuel are core elements in Asian household budgets, sustained price increases not only erode consumers’ real purchasing power but will also spill over to general inflation pressures.
Headline inflation in the six economies has accelerated in recent months, stoked by the continued strength of domestic demand and rising food and fuel prices. Topping the inflation league is Indonesia at 7.0% in Jan 2011, followed by Singapore (5.5%), China (4.9%), Hong Kong (3.9%) and Thailand (3.0% in Dec 2010). Malaysia’s inflation though rising to 2.4% in Jan is benign relative to its regional peers. This was partly due to administrative restraints that hold prices of essential items in check.
Fuel and transport have a 9.1% weight in CPI in Hong Kong, 19.1% in Indonesia, 14.9% in Malaysia, 16.0% in Singapore, 26.8% in Thailand and 9.9% in China. Every US$10/bbl rise in oil price would add 0.2-2.5% pts to CPI growth assuming full-pass through or partial pass-through in the case of Malaysia and Indonesia. For Malaysia, RON97 petrol price follows a “managed float” market pricing while RON95 petrol, which makes up about 88% of total consumption, is still under subsidy. In 2010-early 2011, the government hiked RON97 and RON95 by 45 sen/litre and 10 sen/litre a couple of times to RM2.50/litre and RM1.90/litre, respectively. The current subsidy rate for RON95 is estimated at 40-60 sen/litre based on the current oil price of US$96- 97. Having learned from the bitter lesson in 2008, the government is likely to stick to a small-step reduction in fuel subsidy to avoid a massive fuel price adjustment, which would lead to widespread spillover price increases for other goods and services. In 2008, inflation accelerated to a 28-year high of 8.5% yoy in Jul-Aug 2008 and averaged 5.4% in 2008. In Indonesia, we factor in a 30% hike in fuel prices, and this will push inflation to 9.7% in 2011, up 2.5% pts from our baseline estimate of 7.2%.
Interest rate and currency outlook
Policymakers will be caught in a dilemma in the event of sustained rises in oil price as an oil supply shock could itself exert a moderating impact on growth and domestic demand. If the policymakers tighten interest rates further, it could slow down growth. Faced with moderating growth prospects for this year, the central banks will have to strike a delicate balance between ensuring continued recovery and mitigating the inflation pressures. In 2008, Bank Indonesia and Bank of Thailand raised interest rates to temper the unprecedented rise in inflation but subsequently cut rates to avert an economic downturn sparked by the US subprime crisis. Despite the surge in inflation in 1H08, Malaysia’s central bank refrained from raising interest rates, having assessed that the weakening global growth and cost-driven inflation would moderate domestic economic growth.
Malaysia, Thailand and China started to normalise interest rates in 2010 while Indonesia followed suit in 2011 to combat the accelerating inflation. We see bigger risk for Bank Indonesia to tighten rate more aggressively if inflation accelerates due to rising oil prices. As for currencies, some central banks are willing to tolerate a stronger currency as part of their efforts to bring inflation under control. As international trade in the oil is denominated in the US dollar, the high oil price will increase demand for US dollars. This will weaken the currencies of net importers of oil. The Thai baht will be affected. The impact on the Hong Kong dollar, Malaysian ringgit and Chinese renminbi will be less.
Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:24/02/11
AirAsia Record high earnings (ECM)
AirAsia
Buy
(RM2.48 AIRA MK)
Target Price: RM3.50
4QFY10 : Record high earnings
· Earnings within expectations
AirAsia’s 4QFY10 core earnings of RM341.3m (+>100% y-o-y) came in within our expectations. For the full year, the Group’s core earnings grew a whopping 84% y-o-y to RM825.1m. This was also inline with our and market’s expectations. On dividends, management will hold a special meeting to decide on its policy and announce its decision soon.
· Ancillary income led revenue growth
4Q10 revenue grew by 32.7% y-o-y mainly on increased average fare and ancillary income. Average fare was up 7% y-o-y to RM188/pax, while ancillary income rose c.100% y-o-y to RM49/pax. Passenger yield expanded 10% y-o-y to 22.3 sen/RPK. Despite higher fuel prices of c.USD88/barrel (+10% y-o-y), AirAsia managed to maintain its unit cost at 11.85 sen/ASK, slightly higher than 11.12 sen/ASK in 4Q09 (+7% y-o-y).
· Healthy balance sheet
Net gearing as at end-December 2010 was 1.75x, lower by 33.2% y-o-y (- 13.3% q-o-q), as a result of higher cash balances and increase shareholders’ fund. The Group had a cash balance of RM1.5bn (+>100% y-o-y, +61% q-o-q), while total debt stood at RM7.9bn (+3.3% y-o-y, +3% q-o-q). Debt is expected to be further reduced with gradual repayment from the Thai and Indonesian associates.
· Risks of higher oil prices
AirAsia has hedged 21% of its fuel requirement (up to 2Q11) using fixed swap on WTI crude oil at an average price of USD92 per barrel. Management would also re-introduce fuel surcharge as one of its preemptive measures to counter higher oil prices. Based on AirAsia’s sensitivity analysis, every -/+USD1/barrel on fuel movement will impact - /+RM15m in EBITDA and net profit.
· Maintain Buy
We remain optimistic on AirAsia’s prospects in 2011 especially on the listing of its associates and AirAsia X, as well as its new venture in the Philippines. We have tweaked our FY11-FY12 forecasts by 24-22% to factor in higher ancillary income and average fare, and raised our assumptions of WTI from USD80/barrel to USD90 per barrel. Hence, target price is increased to RM4.15 (previously RM3.50) pegged against 10x FY11 EPS (PE multiple based on average peers’). Maintain Buy.
Source/转贴/Extract/: ECM Libra
Publish date:25/02/11
Buy
(RM2.48 AIRA MK)
Target Price: RM3.50
4QFY10 : Record high earnings
· Earnings within expectations
AirAsia’s 4QFY10 core earnings of RM341.3m (+>100% y-o-y) came in within our expectations. For the full year, the Group’s core earnings grew a whopping 84% y-o-y to RM825.1m. This was also inline with our and market’s expectations. On dividends, management will hold a special meeting to decide on its policy and announce its decision soon.
· Ancillary income led revenue growth
4Q10 revenue grew by 32.7% y-o-y mainly on increased average fare and ancillary income. Average fare was up 7% y-o-y to RM188/pax, while ancillary income rose c.100% y-o-y to RM49/pax. Passenger yield expanded 10% y-o-y to 22.3 sen/RPK. Despite higher fuel prices of c.USD88/barrel (+10% y-o-y), AirAsia managed to maintain its unit cost at 11.85 sen/ASK, slightly higher than 11.12 sen/ASK in 4Q09 (+7% y-o-y).
· Healthy balance sheet
Net gearing as at end-December 2010 was 1.75x, lower by 33.2% y-o-y (- 13.3% q-o-q), as a result of higher cash balances and increase shareholders’ fund. The Group had a cash balance of RM1.5bn (+>100% y-o-y, +61% q-o-q), while total debt stood at RM7.9bn (+3.3% y-o-y, +3% q-o-q). Debt is expected to be further reduced with gradual repayment from the Thai and Indonesian associates.
· Risks of higher oil prices
AirAsia has hedged 21% of its fuel requirement (up to 2Q11) using fixed swap on WTI crude oil at an average price of USD92 per barrel. Management would also re-introduce fuel surcharge as one of its preemptive measures to counter higher oil prices. Based on AirAsia’s sensitivity analysis, every -/+USD1/barrel on fuel movement will impact - /+RM15m in EBITDA and net profit.
· Maintain Buy
We remain optimistic on AirAsia’s prospects in 2011 especially on the listing of its associates and AirAsia X, as well as its new venture in the Philippines. We have tweaked our FY11-FY12 forecasts by 24-22% to factor in higher ancillary income and average fare, and raised our assumptions of WTI from USD80/barrel to USD90 per barrel. Hence, target price is increased to RM4.15 (previously RM3.50) pegged against 10x FY11 EPS (PE multiple based on average peers’). Maintain Buy.
Source/转贴/Extract/: ECM Libra
Publish date:25/02/11
AirAsia Flying high in FY10 (MIDF)
AirAsia Bhd
Maintain Target Price (TP): RM2.80
Upgrade to BUY
Flying high in FY10
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
• AirAsia’s FY10 revenue within expectations. AirAsia recorded revenue of RM3.99b in FY10, a growth of 25.6%yoy. This is within ours and consensus’ estimates. The main catalyst for the growth was ancillary income which grew by 69.9%yoy, beating our expectation by 29.4%.
• Higher ancillary income contribution. Ancillary revenue continues to contribute more in FY10 with 17.7% contribution coming at RM705.4m, as compared to 13.1% contribution or RM415.2m in FY09. Ancillary per pax grew by 39.0%yoy in FY10 to RM41.00.
• Net profit more than doubled. AirAsia’s FY10 net profit more than doubled to register RM1.07b. This has exceeded ours and consensus’ expectations as we had underestimated the high unrealized forex gains and the savings from lower maintenance. Forex gains were RM296.6m in FY10, due to the strengthening of RM vis-à-vis USD. Maintenance and overhaul cost was 15.4%yoy lower in FY10.
• Double-digit increase in EBITDAR despite higher fuel price. We are pleasantly surprised that AirAsia managed to register double digit growth of 27.2%yoy, to RM1.74b, on its EBITDAR, given it was operating under a higher fuel price environment. Average fuel price grew by 35.6%yoy to USD91.8pb in FY10.
• Yield keeps increasing. We like the fact that AirAsia continue to register better yield, as measured by Revenue / ASK. In FY10, yield grew by 13.3%yoy to 16.39 sen, despite it being yield passive. On a sequential quarter basis, the yield increased by 13.1%qoq to 18.44 sen.
• Upgrade to BUY with a target price of RM2.80. We remain upbeat of AirAsia’s potential despite the current uncertain political climate which is affecting oil prices. It has a natural hedge as it matches forward bookings with fuel requirements and it has yet to introduce fuel price surcharge. Management indicated that it is comfortable with crude price at USD160pb without introducing fuel surcharge. Due to the strong performance in FY10, we are revising upwards our FY11 net earnings by 38.1%. As AirAsia’s share price had retreated recently, we believe that it is a good time to accumulate. Our target price is based PER of 7.0x, which is the mean PER of its peers.
Source/转贴/Extract/: MIDF RESEARCH
Publish date:25/02/11
Maintain Target Price (TP): RM2.80
Upgrade to BUY
Flying high in FY10
INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS
• AirAsia’s FY10 revenue within expectations. AirAsia recorded revenue of RM3.99b in FY10, a growth of 25.6%yoy. This is within ours and consensus’ estimates. The main catalyst for the growth was ancillary income which grew by 69.9%yoy, beating our expectation by 29.4%.
• Higher ancillary income contribution. Ancillary revenue continues to contribute more in FY10 with 17.7% contribution coming at RM705.4m, as compared to 13.1% contribution or RM415.2m in FY09. Ancillary per pax grew by 39.0%yoy in FY10 to RM41.00.
• Net profit more than doubled. AirAsia’s FY10 net profit more than doubled to register RM1.07b. This has exceeded ours and consensus’ expectations as we had underestimated the high unrealized forex gains and the savings from lower maintenance. Forex gains were RM296.6m in FY10, due to the strengthening of RM vis-à-vis USD. Maintenance and overhaul cost was 15.4%yoy lower in FY10.
• Double-digit increase in EBITDAR despite higher fuel price. We are pleasantly surprised that AirAsia managed to register double digit growth of 27.2%yoy, to RM1.74b, on its EBITDAR, given it was operating under a higher fuel price environment. Average fuel price grew by 35.6%yoy to USD91.8pb in FY10.
• Yield keeps increasing. We like the fact that AirAsia continue to register better yield, as measured by Revenue / ASK. In FY10, yield grew by 13.3%yoy to 16.39 sen, despite it being yield passive. On a sequential quarter basis, the yield increased by 13.1%qoq to 18.44 sen.
• Upgrade to BUY with a target price of RM2.80. We remain upbeat of AirAsia’s potential despite the current uncertain political climate which is affecting oil prices. It has a natural hedge as it matches forward bookings with fuel requirements and it has yet to introduce fuel price surcharge. Management indicated that it is comfortable with crude price at USD160pb without introducing fuel surcharge. Due to the strong performance in FY10, we are revising upwards our FY11 net earnings by 38.1%. As AirAsia’s share price had retreated recently, we believe that it is a good time to accumulate. Our target price is based PER of 7.0x, which is the mean PER of its peers.
Source/转贴/Extract/: MIDF RESEARCH
Publish date:25/02/11
AirAsia No Fear On High Fuel Prices (HLG)
AirAsia(BUY , EPS)
Price Target: RM3.50 ()
Share price: RM2.35
Record Result; No Fear On High Fuel Prices
Results Above – 4Q10 earning was above our expectations. FY10 revenue was inline with our expectations, while core earning was above our expectation by 16.9%.
Deviations Higher ancillary income; lower maintenance cost; lower net interest expense and lower tax expense.
Dividends Potential 1st time dividend payout pending board meeting.
Highlights Achieved strong ancillary income per pax at record RM49.2 in 4Q10. Management confident to increase ancillary income further in 2011.
Thai Airasia and Indonesia Airasia continued to post strong results with maiden FY10 profits. Loans to associates dropped significantly to RM375m from RM635mn in previous quarter.
Potential listing of Indonesia AirAsia by 4Q11, followed by Thai AirAsia. After the listing, AirAsia Berhad to transfer the rightful A320s to respective associates at book value.
Net gearing improved to 1.75x (4Q10) vs 2.57x (4Q09).
Fuel hedged at 21% for up to 2Q11 at average of US$92.31/bbl (WTI). Management has already taken a few initiatives to raise revenues in order to offsets the higher jet fuel prices. Unless situation worsens, fuel surcharge will be implemented swiftly within 24 hours.
Risks
World crisis (ie. war, tourism and epidemic outbreak), delay in KLIA2 completion, prolong surge in jet fuel price and the development of high speed train between Singapore and Pulau Pinang.
Forecasts
Increased FY11 and FY12 earnings by 1.6% and 11.5% after accounting for higher revenues and lower interest expenses which offsets the higher fuel costs.
Rating BUY
Positives –
Beneficiary of strong air traffic into Malaysia, inline with government initiatives to boost tourism sectors.
Largest and lowest cost LCC in Southeast Asia with strong brand name.
Re-rating catalysts via IPO exercises of AirAsia X, Thai AirAsia and Indonesia AirAsia.
Strong ancillary income.
Negatives –
Surging jet fuel cost.
Potential pricing war between AirAsia and Firefly.
Valuation
Target Price increased by 1.1% to RM3.50 based on Sumof- Parts, to better reflect AirAsia’s valuation post IPO exercises of associates and investment.
Source/转贴/Extract/: HLIB Research
Publish date:25/02/11
Price Target: RM3.50 ()
Share price: RM2.35
Record Result; No Fear On High Fuel Prices
Results Above – 4Q10 earning was above our expectations. FY10 revenue was inline with our expectations, while core earning was above our expectation by 16.9%.
Deviations Higher ancillary income; lower maintenance cost; lower net interest expense and lower tax expense.
Dividends Potential 1st time dividend payout pending board meeting.
Highlights Achieved strong ancillary income per pax at record RM49.2 in 4Q10. Management confident to increase ancillary income further in 2011.
Thai Airasia and Indonesia Airasia continued to post strong results with maiden FY10 profits. Loans to associates dropped significantly to RM375m from RM635mn in previous quarter.
Potential listing of Indonesia AirAsia by 4Q11, followed by Thai AirAsia. After the listing, AirAsia Berhad to transfer the rightful A320s to respective associates at book value.
Net gearing improved to 1.75x (4Q10) vs 2.57x (4Q09).
Fuel hedged at 21% for up to 2Q11 at average of US$92.31/bbl (WTI). Management has already taken a few initiatives to raise revenues in order to offsets the higher jet fuel prices. Unless situation worsens, fuel surcharge will be implemented swiftly within 24 hours.
Risks
World crisis (ie. war, tourism and epidemic outbreak), delay in KLIA2 completion, prolong surge in jet fuel price and the development of high speed train between Singapore and Pulau Pinang.
Forecasts
Increased FY11 and FY12 earnings by 1.6% and 11.5% after accounting for higher revenues and lower interest expenses which offsets the higher fuel costs.
Rating BUY
Positives –
Beneficiary of strong air traffic into Malaysia, inline with government initiatives to boost tourism sectors.
Largest and lowest cost LCC in Southeast Asia with strong brand name.
Re-rating catalysts via IPO exercises of AirAsia X, Thai AirAsia and Indonesia AirAsia.
Strong ancillary income.
Negatives –
Surging jet fuel cost.
Potential pricing war between AirAsia and Firefly.
Valuation
Target Price increased by 1.1% to RM3.50 based on Sumof- Parts, to better reflect AirAsia’s valuation post IPO exercises of associates and investment.
Source/转贴/Extract/: HLIB Research
Publish date:25/02/11
KNM Dragged by kitchen sinking (Hwang)
KNM Group
BUY RM2.83
Price Target : 12-Month RM 3.50
Dragged by kitchen sinking
• FY10 below expectation; completed last batch of low margin jobs secured in 2009
• Turnaround story intact, visibility is good with order book in excess of RM4.0bn
• Maintain Buy and TP of RM3.50
4Q10 results below expectation. Headline 4Q10 net profit fell 63% q-o-q to RM20.6m as KNM posted marginal losses in Asia & Oceania operations. Europe & America operating margin also moderated to 8.2% (from 13.8% in 3Q10) as the company completed the last batch of low margin jobs secured in 2009. Group operating margin stood at 5.3% vs. 12.8% in 3Q10. As expected, no dividend was declared for the quarter.
Growth visibility from high order book. FY10 net profit of RM131.2m was below expectations, making up only 77% of our full year earnings estimates. However, the company’s turnaround story is intact as earnings are set to rebound this year supported by its high order book of RM4.0bn. KNM is also set to benefit from increasing oil & gas activities on the local front. In the near term, we understand that the company is targeting RM500m worth of jobs, from projects ranging from Sabah Oil & Gas Terminal (SOGT), Petronas regasification plant and Kimanis Power Plant.
Maintain Buy. We maintain our Buy call on KNM with target price of RM3.50/share based on 15.5x CY11F earnings. KNM is also poised to benefit from growing domestic and global opportunities. Valuation is undemanding at FY11 PE of 12.5x against local and regional peers’ average of 15.7x and 16.6x, respectively.
Source/转贴/Extract/: HWANGDBS Vickers Research
Publish date:25/02/11
BUY RM2.83
Price Target : 12-Month RM 3.50
Dragged by kitchen sinking
• FY10 below expectation; completed last batch of low margin jobs secured in 2009
• Turnaround story intact, visibility is good with order book in excess of RM4.0bn
• Maintain Buy and TP of RM3.50
4Q10 results below expectation. Headline 4Q10 net profit fell 63% q-o-q to RM20.6m as KNM posted marginal losses in Asia & Oceania operations. Europe & America operating margin also moderated to 8.2% (from 13.8% in 3Q10) as the company completed the last batch of low margin jobs secured in 2009. Group operating margin stood at 5.3% vs. 12.8% in 3Q10. As expected, no dividend was declared for the quarter.
Growth visibility from high order book. FY10 net profit of RM131.2m was below expectations, making up only 77% of our full year earnings estimates. However, the company’s turnaround story is intact as earnings are set to rebound this year supported by its high order book of RM4.0bn. KNM is also set to benefit from increasing oil & gas activities on the local front. In the near term, we understand that the company is targeting RM500m worth of jobs, from projects ranging from Sabah Oil & Gas Terminal (SOGT), Petronas regasification plant and Kimanis Power Plant.
Maintain Buy. We maintain our Buy call on KNM with target price of RM3.50/share based on 15.5x CY11F earnings. KNM is also poised to benefit from growing domestic and global opportunities. Valuation is undemanding at FY11 PE of 12.5x against local and regional peers’ average of 15.7x and 16.6x, respectively.
Source/转贴/Extract/: HWANGDBS Vickers Research
Publish date:25/02/11
Masterskill Re-rating ahead (Hwang)
Masterskill Education
BUY RM1.86 KLCI : 1,511.11
Price Target : 12-Month RM 4.50 (from RM4.90)
Re-rating ahead
• FY10 net profit inched up 4.9% yoy to RM102.1m, within our expectation
• Downside limited by 7.5% dividend yield, low valuation (6.7x PE), and share buyback program
• Maintain Buy, DCF-based TP nudged down to RM4.50
FY10 in line. Masterskill (MASEG)’s 4Q10 net profit came in at RM26.8m (-6.2% yoy), taking net profit to RM102m in FY10 (+4.9% yoy). 4Q10 revenue grew 8.9% yoy to RM80.9m led by higher student population (18,399 at end-2010, vs.17,165 at end-2009). But EBIT margin slipped to 30.7% (vs 4Q09: 36.7%; 3Q10: 40.7%) because of higher operating costs related to student clinical postings and academic staff recruitment in line with its expansion plan. MASEG is expected to declare a final dividend next week (DBSV: 5 sen/share).
Better times ahead. After penciling in FY10 financials and operating metrics, earnings were nudged down by 0.8% for FY11F and 2.8% for FY12F. We remain positive on MASEG, projecting net profit to grow 12.1% to RM114.5m this year and 13.6% to RM130.1m next year. In FY11F, its growth drivers will be: (a) a 9.5% increase in student population to 20,147, with additional capacity (in Kota Bharu and Kuching) and 8 new programs; and (b) EBIT margin recovering to 37.9% (from 36.5%) without high start-up costs for new campuses.
Opportunity to BUY. MASEG’s shares fell to a low of RM1.77 recently, before rebounding to RM1.86 currently. The selling was mainly by foreigners presumably in tandem with the shifting of funds from Asia to developed markets. We see the price weakness as an opportunity to accumulate the stock given its attractive valuation at 6.7x FY11F PE, and 3-year net profit CAGR of 23%. Maintain Buy with RM4.50 TP (from RM4.90) based on DCF (WACC 8.3% and terminal growth 1%), which implies 16x FY11F PE. Downside risk is limited by 7.5% net yield for FY11F, low ex-net cash PE of 5.8x, and share buyback program (pending shareholders’ approval).
Source/转贴/Extract/: HWANGDBS Vickers Research
Publish date:25/02/11
BUY RM1.86 KLCI : 1,511.11
Price Target : 12-Month RM 4.50 (from RM4.90)
Re-rating ahead
• FY10 net profit inched up 4.9% yoy to RM102.1m, within our expectation
• Downside limited by 7.5% dividend yield, low valuation (6.7x PE), and share buyback program
• Maintain Buy, DCF-based TP nudged down to RM4.50
FY10 in line. Masterskill (MASEG)’s 4Q10 net profit came in at RM26.8m (-6.2% yoy), taking net profit to RM102m in FY10 (+4.9% yoy). 4Q10 revenue grew 8.9% yoy to RM80.9m led by higher student population (18,399 at end-2010, vs.17,165 at end-2009). But EBIT margin slipped to 30.7% (vs 4Q09: 36.7%; 3Q10: 40.7%) because of higher operating costs related to student clinical postings and academic staff recruitment in line with its expansion plan. MASEG is expected to declare a final dividend next week (DBSV: 5 sen/share).
Better times ahead. After penciling in FY10 financials and operating metrics, earnings were nudged down by 0.8% for FY11F and 2.8% for FY12F. We remain positive on MASEG, projecting net profit to grow 12.1% to RM114.5m this year and 13.6% to RM130.1m next year. In FY11F, its growth drivers will be: (a) a 9.5% increase in student population to 20,147, with additional capacity (in Kota Bharu and Kuching) and 8 new programs; and (b) EBIT margin recovering to 37.9% (from 36.5%) without high start-up costs for new campuses.
Opportunity to BUY. MASEG’s shares fell to a low of RM1.77 recently, before rebounding to RM1.86 currently. The selling was mainly by foreigners presumably in tandem with the shifting of funds from Asia to developed markets. We see the price weakness as an opportunity to accumulate the stock given its attractive valuation at 6.7x FY11F PE, and 3-year net profit CAGR of 23%. Maintain Buy with RM4.50 TP (from RM4.90) based on DCF (WACC 8.3% and terminal growth 1%), which implies 16x FY11F PE. Downside risk is limited by 7.5% net yield for FY11F, low ex-net cash PE of 5.8x, and share buyback program (pending shareholders’ approval).
Source/转贴/Extract/: HWANGDBS Vickers Research
Publish date:25/02/11
新加坡政府投资公司： 中东和北非局势将抬高油价
（2011-02-25）
新加坡政府投资公司(Government of Singapore Investment Corp.，简称GIC)认为，中东和北非的群众起义势头将持续一段时间，使产油国和控制主要航线的国家(例如阿尔及利亚、巴林、利比亚和也门)面对更大的政治动乱风险，油价因此将继续高企而且波动性大。
新加坡政府投资公司副主席兼执行董事陈庆炎博士23日于美国外交政策协会(Foreign Policy Association)在纽约的一个晚宴上演讲时，做出以上表示。陈庆炎博士在晚宴上获该协会颁发“外交政策协会奖状”(FPA Medal)。该奖状显赫的得奖者名单中，包括美国前总统克林顿。
陈庆炎博士认为，世界经济今年展望会比过去几年好，但是有五个经济和政治问题可能影响这个相对光明的展望，其中一个便是最近中东和北非的政局发展。
陈庆炎博士说：“地缘政治和环球政策风险已有一段时间比以前更高，而且或许更加无法预料。在中东，埃及总统穆巴拉克出乎意外被赶走。示威活动已在阿拉伯世界的其他地方出现。”
他还表示：“油价的风险溢价和石油市场的波动性因此将继续高居不下。”
在群众堵满首都开罗示威持续三周后，埃及总统穆巴拉克本月较早时已宣布下台。利比亚领导人卡达菲正试图击溃在首都的黎波里的异议分子，但他的对手已加强了对利比亚东部城市的控制。利比亚的斗争情况，是中东和北非群众起义六周来最激烈的。
新加坡政府投资公司管理着我国超过1000亿美元的储备。有研究机构估计，其资产达2475亿美元，是世界第七大政府投资机构。
陈庆炎博士指出，环球经济今年的展望看来比过去几年好，美国经济的增长今年便可能达4%，比两个月的预期高许多，但五个问题可能影响这个展望。
首先是美国高居不下的失业率。短期内美国需要一段日子有较强的就业创造，以使经济复苏可持续；第二是美国的房市仍疲软，房价若跌超过15%将打击消费信心；第三，通货膨胀对许多发展中经济体越来越是个风险，特别是亚洲和拉丁美洲。近期食品和商品价格的上涨也增加了这个风险。通胀在接下来几年也可能威胁美国经济；第四，环球过度的资金流动性可导致资产价格泡沫，种下大起大落的周期的种子；第五则是中东和北非的地缘政治风险。
美国或仍是龙头
越来越多人预测中国和其他新兴市场崛起后，西方将因此走下坡。但陈庆炎博士认为这是“极端的看法”。他认为美国在未来多年很可能继续是环球经济繁荣的单一最重要来源。
他说：“这不是空谈。GIC有超过三分之一的投资是在美国。虽然经济势力在调整，而GIC也希望把握新兴市场的机会，美国在今后的多年里，将继续是GIC投资的一个主要地。”
他指出：“美国在短期和长期里皆面对着一些问题和挑战，但我相信美国拥有能持久的力量，能够使经济有新的活力，提供许多有利可图的投资机会。”
虽然美国面对的挑战巨大，但他最担心的是美国因就业或恐怖主义问题而变得保守偏狭。他重申：“美国将继续是GIC投资的一个主要目的地。以美国的开放和对外资的接纳态度，GIC将继续投资于美国。”
Source/转贴/Extract/: 《联合早报》
Publish date:25/02/11
新加坡政府投资公司(Government of Singapore Investment Corp.，简称GIC)认为，中东和北非的群众起义势头将持续一段时间，使产油国和控制主要航线的国家(例如阿尔及利亚、巴林、利比亚和也门)面对更大的政治动乱风险，油价因此将继续高企而且波动性大。
新加坡政府投资公司副主席兼执行董事陈庆炎博士23日于美国外交政策协会(Foreign Policy Association)在纽约的一个晚宴上演讲时，做出以上表示。陈庆炎博士在晚宴上获该协会颁发“外交政策协会奖状”(FPA Medal)。该奖状显赫的得奖者名单中，包括美国前总统克林顿。
陈庆炎博士认为，世界经济今年展望会比过去几年好，但是有五个经济和政治问题可能影响这个相对光明的展望，其中一个便是最近中东和北非的政局发展。
陈庆炎博士说：“地缘政治和环球政策风险已有一段时间比以前更高，而且或许更加无法预料。在中东，埃及总统穆巴拉克出乎意外被赶走。示威活动已在阿拉伯世界的其他地方出现。”
他还表示：“油价的风险溢价和石油市场的波动性因此将继续高居不下。”
在群众堵满首都开罗示威持续三周后，埃及总统穆巴拉克本月较早时已宣布下台。利比亚领导人卡达菲正试图击溃在首都的黎波里的异议分子，但他的对手已加强了对利比亚东部城市的控制。利比亚的斗争情况，是中东和北非群众起义六周来最激烈的。
新加坡政府投资公司管理着我国超过1000亿美元的储备。有研究机构估计，其资产达2475亿美元，是世界第七大政府投资机构。
陈庆炎博士指出，环球经济今年的展望看来比过去几年好，美国经济的增长今年便可能达4%，比两个月的预期高许多，但五个问题可能影响这个展望。
首先是美国高居不下的失业率。短期内美国需要一段日子有较强的就业创造，以使经济复苏可持续；第二是美国的房市仍疲软，房价若跌超过15%将打击消费信心；第三，通货膨胀对许多发展中经济体越来越是个风险，特别是亚洲和拉丁美洲。近期食品和商品价格的上涨也增加了这个风险。通胀在接下来几年也可能威胁美国经济；第四，环球过度的资金流动性可导致资产价格泡沫，种下大起大落的周期的种子；第五则是中东和北非的地缘政治风险。
美国或仍是龙头
越来越多人预测中国和其他新兴市场崛起后，西方将因此走下坡。但陈庆炎博士认为这是“极端的看法”。他认为美国在未来多年很可能继续是环球经济繁荣的单一最重要来源。
他说：“这不是空谈。GIC有超过三分之一的投资是在美国。虽然经济势力在调整，而GIC也希望把握新兴市场的机会，美国在今后的多年里，将继续是GIC投资的一个主要地。”
他指出：“美国在短期和长期里皆面对着一些问题和挑战，但我相信美国拥有能持久的力量，能够使经济有新的活力，提供许多有利可图的投资机会。”
虽然美国面对的挑战巨大，但他最担心的是美国因就业或恐怖主义问题而变得保守偏狭。他重申：“美国将继续是GIC投资的一个主要目的地。以美国的开放和对外资的接纳态度，GIC将继续投资于美国。”
Source/转贴/Extract/: 《联合早报》
Publish date:25/02/11
海指再跌28点 投资者套利离场
（2011-02-25）
投资者最后一刻套利离场，海指经过三天挣扎后，始终无法把持3000点大关。
受美国隔夜股市所影响，海指昨早开市时报2995.70点，随后一度上扬至3006.58点。午盘套利活动加剧，海指一度滑落近37点，闭市时稍吐跌幅，报2973.08点，全天跌28.77点或0.96％。
适逢月底粉饰橱窗之际，海指仍找不到支持力量。交投十分淡静，成交量近15亿股，成交额近18亿元，反映出投资者的忧心忡忡。
三菱日联资产管理公司总经理健二关口(Kenji Sekiguchi)就表示：“只要投资者仍关注中东地区的不确定性所带来的风险，股价就难以反弹。”
金英证券研究原本预测，海指如果跌破3000点心理水平，下一个支持点将是2950点至2900点；但海指在一天内就刺穿这个支持水平，跌幅超出市场预期。
如果往好的方面看，华侨银行投资研究认为海指如果在3000点能获得支持，将有望回弹到3043点；新加坡证券投资者协会研究公司则认为回到3000点的基础上，有望试探3062点。
中东和北非危机将美国原油价格直逼至每桶100美元，受影响的不仅是和原油相关的股票，还有对通胀特别敏感的商品股。
随着能源价格的提升，预测将引发新一轮的通胀压力。
成分股以23只下跌股对6只上升股，由丰益国际、大华银行和云顶新加坡领跌。
受高油价波及的交通股，股价节节败退。海皇轮船跌10分报1.97元，STX泛洋跌16分报11.24元，新航跌22分报13.66元，虎航跌4分报1.35元。
奥兰国际起9分报2.65元。里昂证券对它的盈利提出质疑。星展唯达高证券建议“买入”，目标价为3.20元；联昌国际研究给予“中性”评级，目标价为3元。
胜科海事起7分报5.28元。集团第四季净利下滑20％，但仍高于市场预测。多家证券研究建议“买入”，目标价介于5.95元至6.63元之间。
城市发展起22分报10.92元。国浩置地起5分报2.49元
Source/转贴/Extract/: 《联合早报》
Publish date:25/02/11
投资者最后一刻套利离场，海指经过三天挣扎后，始终无法把持3000点大关。
受美国隔夜股市所影响，海指昨早开市时报2995.70点，随后一度上扬至3006.58点。午盘套利活动加剧，海指一度滑落近37点，闭市时稍吐跌幅，报2973.08点，全天跌28.77点或0.96％。
适逢月底粉饰橱窗之际，海指仍找不到支持力量。交投十分淡静，成交量近15亿股，成交额近18亿元，反映出投资者的忧心忡忡。
三菱日联资产管理公司总经理健二关口(Kenji Sekiguchi)就表示：“只要投资者仍关注中东地区的不确定性所带来的风险，股价就难以反弹。”
金英证券研究原本预测，海指如果跌破3000点心理水平，下一个支持点将是2950点至2900点；但海指在一天内就刺穿这个支持水平，跌幅超出市场预期。
如果往好的方面看，华侨银行投资研究认为海指如果在3000点能获得支持，将有望回弹到3043点；新加坡证券投资者协会研究公司则认为回到3000点的基础上，有望试探3062点。
中东和北非危机将美国原油价格直逼至每桶100美元，受影响的不仅是和原油相关的股票，还有对通胀特别敏感的商品股。
随着能源价格的提升，预测将引发新一轮的通胀压力。
成分股以23只下跌股对6只上升股，由丰益国际、大华银行和云顶新加坡领跌。
受高油价波及的交通股，股价节节败退。海皇轮船跌10分报1.97元，STX泛洋跌16分报11.24元，新航跌22分报13.66元，虎航跌4分报1.35元。
奥兰国际起9分报2.65元。里昂证券对它的盈利提出质疑。星展唯达高证券建议“买入”，目标价为3.20元；联昌国际研究给予“中性”评级，目标价为3元。
胜科海事起7分报5.28元。集团第四季净利下滑20％，但仍高于市场预测。多家证券研究建议“买入”，目标价介于5.95元至6.63元之间。
城市发展起22分报10.92元。国浩置地起5分报2.49元
Source/转贴/Extract/: 《联合早报》
Publish date:25/02/11
Wheelock Acquires five sites in China for S$279m (CIMB)
Wheelock Properties (S) Ltd
OUTPERFORM Maintained
S$1.89 Target: S$2.41
Deployment of capital, overseas
Acquires five sites in China for S$279m
Maintain Outperform. Wheelock has successfully bid for five sites in Fuyang City, China for S$279m. We expect them to be earnings-accretive. What surprised us was not the purchase but management’s decision to venture overseas. We believe this was compelled by a lack of prime sites at ‘reasonable’ prices in Singapore and perhaps, management’s view that land prices here will not recede in the near term. Wheelock’s financial position, however, is expected to remain strong even after the acquisition, empowering it to bid for prime projects locally should prices turn more favourable. We nudge up our FY12-13 core EPS estimates to incorporate profits from the projects. Our target price accordingly climbs to S$2.41 from S$2.37, still pegged at a 10% discount to RNAV. We continue to see catalysts from higher commercial values and further capital deployment.
The news
Wheelock announced yesterday that it had, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Gold Unicorn Holdings Limited, successfully bid for five sites in Fuyang City, a county adjacent to Hangzhou in China. The total consideration was Rmb1.4bn (S$279m), or Rmb3.9k psm (S$770 psm) for 3.2m sf of land (3.9m sf GFA). Wheelock intends to develop 1,900 residential units on the sites. Its purchase will be funded by cash and debt, paid in two tranches of 50% by 30 Mar 11 and 28 Feb 12 respectively. The acquisition is expected to be completed in Feb 12.
Comments
Lack of good opportunities locally? With Wheelock’s mounting cash hoard (net cash of S$757m as at end-4Q10) and a diminishing land bank in Singapore, the acquisition did not come as a surprise. What surprised us was management's decision to venture overseas. With management known for its astute purchases, we believe the move could have been compelled by a lack of prime sites at reasonable prices locally, plausibly reflecting management’s view that land prices in Singapore will not recededespite government cooling measures. Recent tenders show continued competition among developers for well-located sites. A case in point was the tender for a welllocated site along Bishan Street 14 (within walking distance of the Bishan MRT station) which closed yesterday. This received 19 bids from developers, with the top bid coming in at a rather hefty S$869 psf ppr.
Purchase likely accretive. The five sites are located in Fuyang City, a county adjacent to second-tier city, Hangzhou, which is about two hours by rail or car and 45 minutes by high-speed rail from Shanghai. The sites are also about 22km from the city centre of Hangzhou and 14km from one of the busiest streets of Fuyang. Based on the land cost of Rmb3.9k psm, construction cost of about Rmb3k psm and other costs (including business tax, sales & administrative expenses and land appreciation taxes), we estimate breakeven at Rmb12k psm. With projects in the region typically fetching Rmb15k-20k psm, possibly higher with increased connectivity between Hangzhou and Shanghai, we expect the project to be earnings-accretive.
Balance sheet to remain strong. We estimate required commitments of about S$800m for the project (inclusive of site costs, development and other costs). Nonetheless, with strong net cash of S$757m at end-4Q10, continued progress billings expected from Scotts Square (45-55% progress billings served), proceeds from more sales of Orchard View (20% sold to date) and recurring income from the new Scotts Square, we expect Wheelock’s financial position to remain rather strong. This should give it backing for bids for prime projects in Singapore should there be opportunities, such as the Marina Bay sites when they are eventually released.
Valuation and recommendation
Maintain Outperform. We nudge up our FY12-13 core EPS estimates by 3-11% to incorporate profits from the projects. Following this, we raise our RNAV estimate from S$2.63 to S$2.68, which lifts our target price to S$2.41 from S$2.37, still based on a 10% discount to RNAV. We continue to see catalysts from higher commercial values and further capital deployment.
Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:25/02/11
OUTPERFORM Maintained
S$1.89 Target: S$2.41
Deployment of capital, overseas
Acquires five sites in China for S$279m
Maintain Outperform. Wheelock has successfully bid for five sites in Fuyang City, China for S$279m. We expect them to be earnings-accretive. What surprised us was not the purchase but management’s decision to venture overseas. We believe this was compelled by a lack of prime sites at ‘reasonable’ prices in Singapore and perhaps, management’s view that land prices here will not recede in the near term. Wheelock’s financial position, however, is expected to remain strong even after the acquisition, empowering it to bid for prime projects locally should prices turn more favourable. We nudge up our FY12-13 core EPS estimates to incorporate profits from the projects. Our target price accordingly climbs to S$2.41 from S$2.37, still pegged at a 10% discount to RNAV. We continue to see catalysts from higher commercial values and further capital deployment.
The news
Wheelock announced yesterday that it had, through its wholly-owned subsidiary, Gold Unicorn Holdings Limited, successfully bid for five sites in Fuyang City, a county adjacent to Hangzhou in China. The total consideration was Rmb1.4bn (S$279m), or Rmb3.9k psm (S$770 psm) for 3.2m sf of land (3.9m sf GFA). Wheelock intends to develop 1,900 residential units on the sites. Its purchase will be funded by cash and debt, paid in two tranches of 50% by 30 Mar 11 and 28 Feb 12 respectively. The acquisition is expected to be completed in Feb 12.
Comments
Lack of good opportunities locally? With Wheelock’s mounting cash hoard (net cash of S$757m as at end-4Q10) and a diminishing land bank in Singapore, the acquisition did not come as a surprise. What surprised us was management's decision to venture overseas. With management known for its astute purchases, we believe the move could have been compelled by a lack of prime sites at reasonable prices locally, plausibly reflecting management’s view that land prices in Singapore will not recededespite government cooling measures. Recent tenders show continued competition among developers for well-located sites. A case in point was the tender for a welllocated site along Bishan Street 14 (within walking distance of the Bishan MRT station) which closed yesterday. This received 19 bids from developers, with the top bid coming in at a rather hefty S$869 psf ppr.
Purchase likely accretive. The five sites are located in Fuyang City, a county adjacent to second-tier city, Hangzhou, which is about two hours by rail or car and 45 minutes by high-speed rail from Shanghai. The sites are also about 22km from the city centre of Hangzhou and 14km from one of the busiest streets of Fuyang. Based on the land cost of Rmb3.9k psm, construction cost of about Rmb3k psm and other costs (including business tax, sales & administrative expenses and land appreciation taxes), we estimate breakeven at Rmb12k psm. With projects in the region typically fetching Rmb15k-20k psm, possibly higher with increased connectivity between Hangzhou and Shanghai, we expect the project to be earnings-accretive.
Balance sheet to remain strong. We estimate required commitments of about S$800m for the project (inclusive of site costs, development and other costs). Nonetheless, with strong net cash of S$757m at end-4Q10, continued progress billings expected from Scotts Square (45-55% progress billings served), proceeds from more sales of Orchard View (20% sold to date) and recurring income from the new Scotts Square, we expect Wheelock’s financial position to remain rather strong. This should give it backing for bids for prime projects in Singapore should there be opportunities, such as the Marina Bay sites when they are eventually released.
Valuation and recommendation
Maintain Outperform. We nudge up our FY12-13 core EPS estimates by 3-11% to incorporate profits from the projects. Following this, we raise our RNAV estimate from S$2.63 to S$2.68, which lifts our target price to S$2.41 from S$2.37, still based on a 10% discount to RNAV. We continue to see catalysts from higher commercial values and further capital deployment.
Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:25/02/11
CapitaLand A very agressive bid (CIMB)
CapitaLand Ltd
NEUTRAL Maintained
S$3.27 Target: S$4.04
A very agressive bid
S$869psf for Bishan site
Maintain Neutral. CapLand, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Bishan Residential Development, has put in the highest bid of S$550m or S$869psf GFA for a piece of state land in Bishan. The residential land parcel attracted a record 19 bids with CapLand beating the second highest bidder by 27%. This is a very aggressive bid, in our view, despite the site’s very attractive attributes. If the tender is successful, we expect a launch in 6-12 months’ time with meaningful profit margins challenging. We keep our estimates pending details. Maintain Neutral and target price of S$4.04, still based on a 15% discount to RNAV. We believe the news is unlikely to excite investors much given heightened policy concerns amid broader market weakness.
A very good site, but comes at a high cost. The site is located at Bishan Street 14, a short distance away from the train station. Located in a mature residential estate, the 633k sf GFA parcel is slated for a 600-unit development (99-year leasehold). The site is widely considered one of the most attractive in the GLS programme’s reserved list. At S$869psf, we estimate breakeven at S$1,250-1,300psf. This implies a possible pricing of S$1.450-1,500psf, assuming the typical developer’s profit margin of 15- 20%. We believe this is a level unseen in the area. If awarded, we believe CapLand may launch the site within the next 6-12 months given its leasehold tenure. We find these prices difficult to achieve in the near term in view of policy-tightening bias. To put things in perspective, this bid is dearer than CapLand’s previous high-profile acquisitions of Interlace (estimated S$550psf after development charge) and the Bedok/Changi Road site (S$841psf). The cost also places it in the same league as D’Leedon, acquired in 2007. The site had attracted 18 other bidders, including KepLand, Hong Leong, Allgreen, F&N and Wingtai which had put in bids at S$480- 683psf, 27-45% lower than the top bid.
Valuation and recommendation
Maintain Neutral. We keep our earnings estimates pending details. Maintain Neutral and target price of S$4.04, still based on a 15% discount to RNAV. We believe the news is unlikely to excite investors much given heightened policy concerns amid the broader market weakness.
Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:25/02/11
NEUTRAL Maintained
S$3.27 Target: S$4.04
A very agressive bid
S$869psf for Bishan site
Maintain Neutral. CapLand, through its wholly-owned subsidiary Bishan Residential Development, has put in the highest bid of S$550m or S$869psf GFA for a piece of state land in Bishan. The residential land parcel attracted a record 19 bids with CapLand beating the second highest bidder by 27%. This is a very aggressive bid, in our view, despite the site’s very attractive attributes. If the tender is successful, we expect a launch in 6-12 months’ time with meaningful profit margins challenging. We keep our estimates pending details. Maintain Neutral and target price of S$4.04, still based on a 15% discount to RNAV. We believe the news is unlikely to excite investors much given heightened policy concerns amid broader market weakness.
A very good site, but comes at a high cost. The site is located at Bishan Street 14, a short distance away from the train station. Located in a mature residential estate, the 633k sf GFA parcel is slated for a 600-unit development (99-year leasehold). The site is widely considered one of the most attractive in the GLS programme’s reserved list. At S$869psf, we estimate breakeven at S$1,250-1,300psf. This implies a possible pricing of S$1.450-1,500psf, assuming the typical developer’s profit margin of 15- 20%. We believe this is a level unseen in the area. If awarded, we believe CapLand may launch the site within the next 6-12 months given its leasehold tenure. We find these prices difficult to achieve in the near term in view of policy-tightening bias. To put things in perspective, this bid is dearer than CapLand’s previous high-profile acquisitions of Interlace (estimated S$550psf after development charge) and the Bedok/Changi Road site (S$841psf). The cost also places it in the same league as D’Leedon, acquired in 2007. The site had attracted 18 other bidders, including KepLand, Hong Leong, Allgreen, F&N and Wingtai which had put in bids at S$480- 683psf, 27-45% lower than the top bid.
Valuation and recommendation
Maintain Neutral. We keep our earnings estimates pending details. Maintain Neutral and target price of S$4.04, still based on a 15% discount to RNAV. We believe the news is unlikely to excite investors much given heightened policy concerns amid the broader market weakness.
Source/转贴/Extract/: CIMB Research
Publish date:25/02/11
NOL to boost orders to address freight shortage
Singapore’s Neptune Orient Lines (NOL) (NEPS.SI), the world’s seventh largest container shipping firm, will order more vessels to address an expected shortage in the global freight market within a few years, its chief executive said.
The remarks come three days after A.P. Moller-Maersk (MAERSKb.CO), the world’s biggest container shipping firm, said it placed a US$1.9 billion order with Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (042660.KS) to build 10 of the world’s largest container ships for delivery between 2013 and 2015.
Chief Executive Ronald Widdows, however, did not say how many more ships he would order above the 10 vessels announced last year for delivery in 2013-2014.
NOL, which operates 145 ships with a total capacity of 585,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) of container boxes, has total cash of US$977 million ($1.2 billion) on hand as of 2010-end.
Widdows said 2011 would be a “normal year” where supply and demand for container ships would both grow by around 6%.
The global shipping industry has rebounded strongly from the worst downturn in history in 2009 as the recession hit global trade and forced many companies to lay up ships and cut jobs.
The industry, seen as a key indicator of global economic activity, however, would face a shortage of ships in the coming years due to surging demand, especially in Asia.
“Look at the order book, the size of the ships that are coming in 2013 and 2014, there are not many ships. There better be some more ordering of ships because there is not enough tonnage to meet the demand,” Widdows said in an interview at NOL’s headquarters in Singapore on Thursday.
The CEO said he does not expect Maersk’s order for ten mammoth 18,000 TEU container ships to have any significant impact on its operations or the broader industry.
“It has no play or influence on the dynamics that affect the business anytime soon,” Widdows said.
“Their market share in Asia-Europe (routes) is very large, multiples of many other companies. It doesn’t really apply to most others in the industry,” he added.
TURNOVER PLAN
NOL planned to turn over many of its ships under charter within the next two to three years.
“Because we didn’t order many ships in the last decade, we have a lot of charters and a lot of those come due in the next few years,” Widdows said.
“It makes sense to continue to purchase ships. Not a lot more, but more. I need the capacity,” he added.
Last year, NOL placed a US$1.2 billion order for 10 vessels with 8,400 TEU capacity to be delivered in 2013 and 2014 and signed a letter of intent for two 10,700-TEU vessels.
NOL reported a better-than-expected fourth quarter profit of US$177 million last week, but warned that the outlook of the industry is uncertain.
Widdows said intra-Asia routes have been taking a lot of capacity from other sectors as trades between China and other countries in the region have sharply increased over the past few years.
The volume of NOL’s intra-Asia cargoes accounted for 40% of its total capacity last year, compared with just 26% in 2003.
Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:25/02/11
The remarks come three days after A.P. Moller-Maersk (MAERSKb.CO), the world’s biggest container shipping firm, said it placed a US$1.9 billion order with Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering (042660.KS) to build 10 of the world’s largest container ships for delivery between 2013 and 2015.
Chief Executive Ronald Widdows, however, did not say how many more ships he would order above the 10 vessels announced last year for delivery in 2013-2014.
NOL, which operates 145 ships with a total capacity of 585,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) of container boxes, has total cash of US$977 million ($1.2 billion) on hand as of 2010-end.
Widdows said 2011 would be a “normal year” where supply and demand for container ships would both grow by around 6%.
The global shipping industry has rebounded strongly from the worst downturn in history in 2009 as the recession hit global trade and forced many companies to lay up ships and cut jobs.
The industry, seen as a key indicator of global economic activity, however, would face a shortage of ships in the coming years due to surging demand, especially in Asia.
“Look at the order book, the size of the ships that are coming in 2013 and 2014, there are not many ships. There better be some more ordering of ships because there is not enough tonnage to meet the demand,” Widdows said in an interview at NOL’s headquarters in Singapore on Thursday.
The CEO said he does not expect Maersk’s order for ten mammoth 18,000 TEU container ships to have any significant impact on its operations or the broader industry.
“It has no play or influence on the dynamics that affect the business anytime soon,” Widdows said.
“Their market share in Asia-Europe (routes) is very large, multiples of many other companies. It doesn’t really apply to most others in the industry,” he added.
TURNOVER PLAN
NOL planned to turn over many of its ships under charter within the next two to three years.
“Because we didn’t order many ships in the last decade, we have a lot of charters and a lot of those come due in the next few years,” Widdows said.
“It makes sense to continue to purchase ships. Not a lot more, but more. I need the capacity,” he added.
Last year, NOL placed a US$1.2 billion order for 10 vessels with 8,400 TEU capacity to be delivered in 2013 and 2014 and signed a letter of intent for two 10,700-TEU vessels.
NOL reported a better-than-expected fourth quarter profit of US$177 million last week, but warned that the outlook of the industry is uncertain.
Widdows said intra-Asia routes have been taking a lot of capacity from other sectors as trades between China and other countries in the region have sharply increased over the past few years.
The volume of NOL’s intra-Asia cargoes accounted for 40% of its total capacity last year, compared with just 26% in 2003.
Source/转贴/Extract/: www.theedgesingapore.com
Publish date:25/02/11
Home prices 'may dip 3-5%'
by Millet Enriquez
05:56 AM Feb 25, 2011
SINGAPORE - Mr Kwek Leng Beng, executive chairman of City Developments (CDL), Singapore's second-largest listed developer, said home prices here could fall up to 5 per cent this year because of the latest measures announced by the Government last month to cool the market.
Mr Kwek gave this assessment as his company announced a record pre-tax profit of more than S$1 billion for 2010.
"The prices will not plunge," said the billionaire tycoon. "The prices, depending on where, may be down 3 to 5 per cent. The volume will be down to some extent. But that is an opportune time for you to consider buying, in my opinion."
The best place to buy property in Singapore, according to Mr Kwek, is Sentosa "because there is no more land for sale. There are plenty of developers offering units for sale in Sentosa. And Sentosa with the IR is becoming more and more popular," he said.
Mr Kwek said Singapore would continue to be an attractive market for property investment. But if the economy continues to grow strongly and property prices do not drop, the Government may step in with more cooling measures, he said.
As a consequence, "if there is a temporary slowdown, so be it," Mr Kwek said. "We have to accept the fact that even the real estate business is cyclical in nature."
For the full year ended Dec 31, CDL's pre-tax profit rose 24.1 per cent to S$1.03 billion - a record since the company started operations in 1963. Higher earnings were led by hotel operations and property development. CDL's full-year revenue dropped 4.4 per cent to S$3.1 billion. The company's board has recommended a total dividend payout of 18 Singapore cents per share.
The company plans to launch 580 units in the first half of this year, in properties such as the H2O Residences and Buckley 9 and 11. Last year, CDL sold 1,560 units, compared with 1,508 units in 2009.
While CDL will continue to build its land bank, it may not be overly aggressive. "At a time when the market is very buoyant, that is not the time when we should be rushing in to buy," Mr Kwek said. Millet Enriquez
Source/转贴/Extract/: www.todayonline.com
Publish date: 25/02/11
05:56 AM Feb 25, 2011
SINGAPORE - Mr Kwek Leng Beng, executive chairman of City Developments (CDL), Singapore's second-largest listed developer, said home prices here could fall up to 5 per cent this year because of the latest measures announced by the Government last month to cool the market.
Mr Kwek gave this assessment as his company announced a record pre-tax profit of more than S$1 billion for 2010.
"The prices will not plunge," said the billionaire tycoon. "The prices, depending on where, may be down 3 to 5 per cent. The volume will be down to some extent. But that is an opportune time for you to consider buying, in my opinion."
The best place to buy property in Singapore, according to Mr Kwek, is Sentosa "because there is no more land for sale. There are plenty of developers offering units for sale in Sentosa. And Sentosa with the IR is becoming more and more popular," he said.
Mr Kwek said Singapore would continue to be an attractive market for property investment. But if the economy continues to grow strongly and property prices do not drop, the Government may step in with more cooling measures, he said.
As a consequence, "if there is a temporary slowdown, so be it," Mr Kwek said. "We have to accept the fact that even the real estate business is cyclical in nature."
For the full year ended Dec 31, CDL's pre-tax profit rose 24.1 per cent to S$1.03 billion - a record since the company started operations in 1963. Higher earnings were led by hotel operations and property development. CDL's full-year revenue dropped 4.4 per cent to S$3.1 billion. The company's board has recommended a total dividend payout of 18 Singapore cents per share.
The company plans to launch 580 units in the first half of this year, in properties such as the H2O Residences and Buckley 9 and 11. Last year, CDL sold 1,560 units, compared with 1,508 units in 2009.
While CDL will continue to build its land bank, it may not be overly aggressive. "At a time when the market is very buoyant, that is not the time when we should be rushing in to buy," Mr Kwek said. Millet Enriquez
Source/转贴/Extract/: www.todayonline.com
Publish date: 25/02/11
Thursday, February 24, 2011
油價攀近100美元燃油附加費料再調高
February 24, 2011 17:44
油價攀近100美元燃油附加費料再調高
報導：林苡欣
（吉隆坡24日訊）利比亞政局漸失控，衝擊紐約油價續攀高至接近每桶100美元，航空業亮紅燈，馬航（MAS，3786，主要板貿易）或調高燃油附加費，亞洲航空（AIRASIA，5099，主要板貿易）或重新征收此收費。
馬航董事經理兼總執行長東姑拿督阿茲米曾表示，有需要將調漲燃油附加費。
亞航總執行長拿督斯里東尼費南德斯早前則說，將在紐約原油價衝破每桶100美元（逾306令吉）后，探討征收20令吉附加費。
ECM證券研究分析員回應《中國報》提問時指出，國內航空業者已密切觀察目前油價走勢，認真探討調整燃油附加費。
“從馬航早前言論即可看出端倪，國際油價持續上漲，已加重成本壓力，公司已認真考慮調整燃油附加費一事。至于亞航，目前暫無必要重啟附加費，仍可提高輔助收費（ancillary fees），抵銷這波衝擊。”
本報已針對此事，電郵相關航空業者，惟直至截稿前，仍未獲得回應。
僑豐投資研究今日在報告中指出，相較于征收燃油附加費，亞航或傾向調高輔助收費。
無需政府批准
“亞航行銷策略致力強打‘沒有燃油附加收費’口號，以吸引乘客目光，且在07至08年經濟危機期間，確實推動乘客增加。”
不過，馬銀行投資銀行分析員卻說，若紐約原油價長時間處在每?00美元，亞航退無可退，最終或在沒選擇下，重新征收燃油附加費。
“亞航也已謹慎跟進油價走勢，既然可以廢除燃油附加費，當然能夠重新落實，畢竟這（征收附加費）無需獲得政府批准。”
MIDF證券研究早前曾預計，油價高漲推高上述2家公司營運成本，其中亞航受衝擊幅度較大，預計達46%，雙方為減低成本料至少征收25%燃油附加費。
Source/转贴/Extract/: 中國報
Publish date:24/02/11
油價攀近100美元燃油附加費料再調高
報導：林苡欣
（吉隆坡24日訊）利比亞政局漸失控，衝擊紐約油價續攀高至接近每桶100美元，航空業亮紅燈，馬航（MAS，3786，主要板貿易）或調高燃油附加費，亞洲航空（AIRASIA，5099，主要板貿易）或重新征收此收費。
馬航董事經理兼總執行長東姑拿督阿茲米曾表示，有需要將調漲燃油附加費。
亞航總執行長拿督斯里東尼費南德斯早前則說，將在紐約原油價衝破每桶100美元（逾306令吉）后，探討征收20令吉附加費。
ECM證券研究分析員回應《中國報》提問時指出，國內航空業者已密切觀察目前油價走勢，認真探討調整燃油附加費。
“從馬航早前言論即可看出端倪，國際油價持續上漲，已加重成本壓力，公司已認真考慮調整燃油附加費一事。至于亞航，目前暫無必要重啟附加費，仍可提高輔助收費（ancillary fees），抵銷這波衝擊。”
本報已針對此事，電郵相關航空業者，惟直至截稿前，仍未獲得回應。
僑豐投資研究今日在報告中指出，相較于征收燃油附加費，亞航或傾向調高輔助收費。
無需政府批准
“亞航行銷策略致力強打‘沒有燃油附加收費’口號，以吸引乘客目光，且在07至08年經濟危機期間，確實推動乘客增加。”
不過，馬銀行投資銀行分析員卻說，若紐約原油價長時間處在每?00美元，亞航退無可退，最終或在沒選擇下，重新征收燃油附加費。
“亞航也已謹慎跟進油價走勢，既然可以廢除燃油附加費，當然能夠重新落實，畢竟這（征收附加費）無需獲得政府批准。”
MIDF證券研究早前曾預計，油價高漲推高上述2家公司營運成本，其中亞航受衝擊幅度較大，預計達46%，雙方為減低成本料至少征收25%燃油附加費。
Source/转贴/Extract/: 中國報
Publish date:24/02/11
交投情緒惡劣‧亞太股市欲振乏力
Created 02/24/2011 - 13:55
（吉隆坡23日訊）中東政局動蕩升溫，北非利政府不惜動用戰機坦克轟炸示威者、使全球市場風險升級、亞太投資者轉向避險資產，使亞股早市受到拋售賣壓延跌。惟午後收復部份失地使跌幅略為收窄。
美國股市週一休市，週二隔夜走勢上演補跌行情，主要指數跌幅介於1.4%至2.7%，全場賣壓沉重，也是打擊今日亞太股市交投情緒“元凶”。
美股道指週二跌178.46點，或是1.44%、成交量達97億6千萬股，顯示賣壓沉重，市場預期短期走勢不受看好。黃氏唯高達認為，外圍市場交投情緒惡劣，使亞太股市賣盤一面倒，短期走勢料將欲振乏力。
油價高企
航空股領跌
全球經濟成長前景變得更不明朗、特別是新興市場通膨壓力加劇、及油價高企將影響企業成本，都是市場殺出退場利空，航空股更首當其沖領跌。
主權評級被降級，使日本東京股市日經指數跌85.60點至1057.60點。首爾股市綜指全天落8.29點至1961.63點、上海股市綜指起7.118點至2862.634點、香港恒生指數全天挫83.91點至22906.90點、菲律賓股市綜指則落27.03點至3757.04點、台灣股市加權指數則跌144.73點至8528.94點。悉尼綜指則滑11.70點至4935.60點。
原油區域貨幣走高
中東主要石油生產國之一的利比亞動亂持續，市場擔心中東石油產量受到影響減產，使原油價走高至2年半來新高、一度達到每桶96.08美元。
國際原油價格高漲，使市場臆測亞太中央銀行可能會調高利息，以遏止通膨壓力。
這使亞太主要貨幣匯率走高。
韓元兌美元匯率走高至1，124.51元、印尼盾兌美元匯率則起0.2%至8,863印尼盾、新加坡元兌美元走高0.1%至1.2788元。區域經濟強穩也是貨幣匯率走高“催化劑”。截至今午5時為止，馬幣兌美元匯率不起反跌，微跌至3.0475令吉水平。
財報超預測
支撐馬股
馬股也受到中東及全球股市風險走高的驚嚇，使綜指1500點關口一度岌岌可危。惟較後區域股市賣壓減緩從谷底回揚，收回早市部份失地，馬股綜指也回穩至1510點以上水平。
馬股今日走勢先挫後穩，綜指早市一度重挫11.62點，或是0.76%至1502.01點的全天最低點。
分析員認為，預料馬股整最新財報表現超出預測，使今年盈利成長有望升級，將為馬股提供支撐後盾。
馬股綜指全天收市時跌2.52點至1511.11點。
富時大馬全股項指數則落21.029點至10386.99點。
全天總共有16億9千542萬2千400股易手。
隨著旗下新加坡雲頂業績表現比市場預測差，第四季蒙受1億5千零30萬新元的虧損、拖累雲頂（GENTING, 3182, 主板貿服組）蒙受拋售一度重挫26仙至10令吉14仙。全天收市跌幅縮減，跌2仙至10令吉38仙。
吉隆坡甲洞寫1個月新低
原棕油期貨市場全面滑落，使種植股――吉隆坡甲洞（KLK, 2445, 主板種植組）上演滑鐵盧，全天下跌40仙至21令吉08仙，創下1個月新低、並成為全天跌幅最重股項，也拉低綜指表現。
原棕油期貨全面猛挫
大馬原棕油期貨市場全面猛挫，跌至2個月來新低、主要是投資者了結合約，轉向避險資產如金屬品及原產品。這使5月份的棕油期貨合約一度挫跌逾160令吉，或是4.5%至每公吨3千503令吉。
大馬原棕油期貨市場的2011年5月份合約收市跌149令吉至3520令吉、成交量放大超過1萬7千253宗。
交易員認為，大馬原棕油期貨市場、也是跟隨美國芝加哥商品期貨市場的大豆期指向下調整、主要是市場看淡農產商品的市場需求。
Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:24/02/11
（吉隆坡23日訊）中東政局動蕩升溫，北非利政府不惜動用戰機坦克轟炸示威者、使全球市場風險升級、亞太投資者轉向避險資產，使亞股早市受到拋售賣壓延跌。惟午後收復部份失地使跌幅略為收窄。
美國股市週一休市，週二隔夜走勢上演補跌行情，主要指數跌幅介於1.4%至2.7%，全場賣壓沉重，也是打擊今日亞太股市交投情緒“元凶”。
美股道指週二跌178.46點，或是1.44%、成交量達97億6千萬股，顯示賣壓沉重，市場預期短期走勢不受看好。黃氏唯高達認為，外圍市場交投情緒惡劣，使亞太股市賣盤一面倒，短期走勢料將欲振乏力。
油價高企
航空股領跌
全球經濟成長前景變得更不明朗、特別是新興市場通膨壓力加劇、及油價高企將影響企業成本，都是市場殺出退場利空，航空股更首當其沖領跌。
主權評級被降級，使日本東京股市日經指數跌85.60點至1057.60點。首爾股市綜指全天落8.29點至1961.63點、上海股市綜指起7.118點至2862.634點、香港恒生指數全天挫83.91點至22906.90點、菲律賓股市綜指則落27.03點至3757.04點、台灣股市加權指數則跌144.73點至8528.94點。悉尼綜指則滑11.70點至4935.60點。
原油區域貨幣走高
中東主要石油生產國之一的利比亞動亂持續，市場擔心中東石油產量受到影響減產，使原油價走高至2年半來新高、一度達到每桶96.08美元。
國際原油價格高漲，使市場臆測亞太中央銀行可能會調高利息，以遏止通膨壓力。
這使亞太主要貨幣匯率走高。
韓元兌美元匯率走高至1，124.51元、印尼盾兌美元匯率則起0.2%至8,863印尼盾、新加坡元兌美元走高0.1%至1.2788元。區域經濟強穩也是貨幣匯率走高“催化劑”。截至今午5時為止，馬幣兌美元匯率不起反跌，微跌至3.0475令吉水平。
財報超預測
支撐馬股
馬股也受到中東及全球股市風險走高的驚嚇，使綜指1500點關口一度岌岌可危。惟較後區域股市賣壓減緩從谷底回揚，收回早市部份失地，馬股綜指也回穩至1510點以上水平。
馬股今日走勢先挫後穩，綜指早市一度重挫11.62點，或是0.76%至1502.01點的全天最低點。
分析員認為，預料馬股整最新財報表現超出預測，使今年盈利成長有望升級，將為馬股提供支撐後盾。
馬股綜指全天收市時跌2.52點至1511.11點。
富時大馬全股項指數則落21.029點至10386.99點。
全天總共有16億9千542萬2千400股易手。
隨著旗下新加坡雲頂業績表現比市場預測差，第四季蒙受1億5千零30萬新元的虧損、拖累雲頂（GENTING, 3182, 主板貿服組）蒙受拋售一度重挫26仙至10令吉14仙。全天收市跌幅縮減，跌2仙至10令吉38仙。
吉隆坡甲洞寫1個月新低
原棕油期貨市場全面滑落，使種植股――吉隆坡甲洞（KLK, 2445, 主板種植組）上演滑鐵盧，全天下跌40仙至21令吉08仙，創下1個月新低、並成為全天跌幅最重股項，也拉低綜指表現。
原棕油期貨全面猛挫
大馬原棕油期貨市場全面猛挫，跌至2個月來新低、主要是投資者了結合約，轉向避險資產如金屬品及原產品。這使5月份的棕油期貨合約一度挫跌逾160令吉，或是4.5%至每公吨3千503令吉。
大馬原棕油期貨市場的2011年5月份合約收市跌149令吉至3520令吉、成交量放大超過1萬7千253宗。
交易員認為，大馬原棕油期貨市場、也是跟隨美國芝加哥商品期貨市場的大豆期指向下調整、主要是市場看淡農產商品的市場需求。
Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:24/02/11
油價飆漲‧大馬弊多於利
Created 02/24/2011 - 18:30
（吉隆坡24日訊）中東革命潮持續升溫將間接刺激油價走高，令人想起2008年情況，聯昌研究認為，雖然大馬仍是石油淨出口國，惟高油價始終衝擊國內各大行業操作，整體效益弊多於利。
油氣、石化、種植受惠最大
航空、船運、電力首當其衝
聯昌認為，首當其衝是航空、船運與電力業，主要是這些行業營運成本與石油有直接關聯，成本壓縮程度最高。
同時，若油價在短時間內暴漲，將持續衝擊建築、媒體、產業、汽車、大道、橡膠手套與彈性包裝業務，主要歸咎於偏高運輸費與原料投入費，加上油價走高後引發次級效應打擊消費需求。
至於油氣、石油化學與種植業則是最大受惠單位，料相關行業訂單與產品售價將走高，至於電訊業則可間接受惠，主要是旅遊風降低可能間接刺激電話與電訊使用費用。
目前倫敦布蘭特原油沖破110美元，從金融風暴低潮至今已經反彈超過170%，雖然距離2008年中的歷史新高仍有23%距離，可是中東危機與全球經濟復甦激發的強勁需求可能會刺激油價持續走高。
打擊區域石油需求
“雖然目前大馬是淨出口國，理當獲益，尤其目前石油與石油相關產品出口目前佔總出口盈利9.1%。不過這也暗示石油與天然氣的津貼隨著增加，一旦高油價次級效應發酵，將導致經濟更多畸變。因為油價走高將打擊石油需求，影響大馬的出口。”
聯昌表示，雖然今年原本就預計出口放緩，經濟成長動力仍來自內需，包括第十大馬計劃與經濟轉型計劃。
“不過，外圍需求與國內風險仍在，包括高油價衝擊全球經濟復甦，亞洲政府的資金管制與通膨政策風險可能壓制區域需求，這些都會間接影響大馬出口。至於經濟轉型計劃拖延與投資成長欠佳也是風險，受到高油價衝擊的公司也會打擊獲利，間接拉低股市投資情緒。”
雖然如此，聯昌仍維持馬股“加碼”，並看好富時綜指今年目標為1千700點。潛在催化因素包括國家經濟轉型計劃與大選帶來的正面影響。
油價走高對各領域影響
主要贏家
●油氣
推動更多油氣生產與勘探活動，帶動國內油氣服務業者訂單；此外，這也激勵國家石油（Petronas）發展更多原本經濟效益不大的邊緣油田。
●石油化學
帶動石油化學產品價，國油化學（PCHEM, 5183, 主板工業產品組）若能維持穩定原料成本，將能拉擴營運盈利賺幅，未來幾年可望維持在超過30%。
●種植
刺激生物產油生產活動，帶動可食用油與谷類投入生物石油需求，並可間接刺激原棕油價走勢。
主要輸家
●航空
燃油附加費無法快速調漲影響賺幅，提前預定的機票也還未反映高油價轉嫁成本，加上衍生產品護盤工具已經減少，例如亞洲航空（AIRASIA, 5099, 主板貿服組）與馬航（MAS, 3786, 主板貿服組）目前分別僅有15%與三分之一護盤，核心賺幅受影響。
船運
原油、化學與乾貨船運費料持續走軟，加上高油價費無法轉嫁或合約組賃屬長期鎖定，將打擊國際船務（MISC, 3816, 主板貿服組）與大馬散裝貨運（MAYBULK, 5077, 主板貿服組）。
●電力
間接刺激煤炭價走高，加上仍沒有實行燃油轉嫁機制與必須承擔獨立發電廠的成本，國家能源（TENAGA, 5347, 主板貿服組）盈利將受挫。
其他“受傷”領域
●汽車
若政府提高國內油價，將加重開車人士負擔，間直接衝擊國內汽車銷量。
●銀行
偏高油價將增加家庭或企業開銷，或讓貸款違約率走高，間接刺激呆帳率飆升。
●釀酒
―非直接衝擊者，惟若電費與燃料非走高，將增加電力與運輸成本。
●建材
由於寡頭壟斷特性，因此可轉嫁成本，惟胥視轉嫁成本的速度。
●橡膠手套
製造原料丁二烯成本與石油價有直接關係，令製造成本走高，惟丁晴手套製造商衝擊比天然膠製造商較大。
●媒體
新聞紙成本將走高，目前佔總成本30至40%，間接影響盈利。
●產業
有間接好處，主要是消費者可能以收購產業當作對抗通膨的護盤。惟若建材價格瞬間狂漲，仍可能影響賺幅，並導致二手承包商無法吸收成本而破產。
●科技
影響不大，惟預料宇琦科技（UCHITEC, 7100, 主板工業產品組）的機械配件成本可能走高4至6%。至於二級效應可能是高油價衝擊需求與消費力。
●香煙
非直接衝擊者，惟若電費與燃料費非走高，將增加電力與運輸成本。
●大道
可能衝擊交通量，惟影響料短暫，因為一般上4至6個月就會自行調整。
每漲10美元
亞洲成長料減速
另一方面，聯昌認為，若每桶國際油價攀漲10美元，大馬、新加坡、印尼、泰國、中國與香港的經濟成長將下滑0.3至1%。
印尼風險最大
印尼目前是油價走高最大風險者，新加坡則面對更多風險，主要是其緩衝來自服務領域與強勁貨幣。香港與中國則不太受影響，泰國衝擊也較輕。
此外，偏高油價可能加重政府預算，尤其是大馬、印尼與中國等偏高油價津貼地區。至於石油入口國股市與債券評級可能有下調風險，相反地出口國則有上調希望。”
週三布蘭特油價格已經飆升至每桶111.83美元，創下29個月新高。由於沙地阿拉伯、利比亞與伊朗佔全球石油產量19%，因此動盪將直接衝擊國際油價。
聯昌表示，假設全球供應影響不大，油價今年平均在每桶95美元，明年則為100美元。不過，若供應持續缺乏，可能激勵油價飆漲至每桶150美元。
“屆時將衝擊經濟活動、企業盈利與刺激通膨外，也會影響金融市場、股市、外匯與政府財政預算。”
通膨或介於0.2%至2.5%聯昌表示，若油價走高也會衝擊通膨。由於燃油佔通膨介於0.7%至11.6%，相關交通則佔9.1%與26.8%，因此食物價格與原料價格飆漲，將持續讓通膨走高。不過，聯昌相信一些政府可能會提供津貼來降溫，料對整體通膨影響介於0.2%至2.5%。
聯昌認為，高油價可能會影響利率調整，主要是油價走高可能會影響國內經濟成長與需求。
“不過，目前許多亞洲新興國家已經透過緊縮貨幣政策來壓低經濟過熱現象。
若油價持續走高，可望協助一些經濟活動放緩，減低這些國家貨幣政策緊縮的壓力。”
至於外匯方面，一些中行可能選擇讓貨幣升值來抑制進口通膨壓力，因此影響不大。
Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:24/02/11
（吉隆坡24日訊）中東革命潮持續升溫將間接刺激油價走高，令人想起2008年情況，聯昌研究認為，雖然大馬仍是石油淨出口國，惟高油價始終衝擊國內各大行業操作，整體效益弊多於利。
油氣、石化、種植受惠最大
航空、船運、電力首當其衝
聯昌認為，首當其衝是航空、船運與電力業，主要是這些行業營運成本與石油有直接關聯，成本壓縮程度最高。
同時，若油價在短時間內暴漲，將持續衝擊建築、媒體、產業、汽車、大道、橡膠手套與彈性包裝業務，主要歸咎於偏高運輸費與原料投入費，加上油價走高後引發次級效應打擊消費需求。
至於油氣、石油化學與種植業則是最大受惠單位，料相關行業訂單與產品售價將走高，至於電訊業則可間接受惠，主要是旅遊風降低可能間接刺激電話與電訊使用費用。
目前倫敦布蘭特原油沖破110美元，從金融風暴低潮至今已經反彈超過170%，雖然距離2008年中的歷史新高仍有23%距離，可是中東危機與全球經濟復甦激發的強勁需求可能會刺激油價持續走高。
打擊區域石油需求
“雖然目前大馬是淨出口國，理當獲益，尤其目前石油與石油相關產品出口目前佔總出口盈利9.1%。不過這也暗示石油與天然氣的津貼隨著增加，一旦高油價次級效應發酵，將導致經濟更多畸變。因為油價走高將打擊石油需求，影響大馬的出口。”
聯昌表示，雖然今年原本就預計出口放緩，經濟成長動力仍來自內需，包括第十大馬計劃與經濟轉型計劃。
“不過，外圍需求與國內風險仍在，包括高油價衝擊全球經濟復甦，亞洲政府的資金管制與通膨政策風險可能壓制區域需求，這些都會間接影響大馬出口。至於經濟轉型計劃拖延與投資成長欠佳也是風險，受到高油價衝擊的公司也會打擊獲利，間接拉低股市投資情緒。”
雖然如此，聯昌仍維持馬股“加碼”，並看好富時綜指今年目標為1千700點。潛在催化因素包括國家經濟轉型計劃與大選帶來的正面影響。
油價走高對各領域影響
主要贏家
●油氣
推動更多油氣生產與勘探活動，帶動國內油氣服務業者訂單；此外，這也激勵國家石油（Petronas）發展更多原本經濟效益不大的邊緣油田。
●石油化學
帶動石油化學產品價，國油化學（PCHEM, 5183, 主板工業產品組）若能維持穩定原料成本，將能拉擴營運盈利賺幅，未來幾年可望維持在超過30%。
●種植
刺激生物產油生產活動，帶動可食用油與谷類投入生物石油需求，並可間接刺激原棕油價走勢。
主要輸家
●航空
燃油附加費無法快速調漲影響賺幅，提前預定的機票也還未反映高油價轉嫁成本，加上衍生產品護盤工具已經減少，例如亞洲航空（AIRASIA, 5099, 主板貿服組）與馬航（MAS, 3786, 主板貿服組）目前分別僅有15%與三分之一護盤，核心賺幅受影響。
船運
原油、化學與乾貨船運費料持續走軟，加上高油價費無法轉嫁或合約組賃屬長期鎖定，將打擊國際船務（MISC, 3816, 主板貿服組）與大馬散裝貨運（MAYBULK, 5077, 主板貿服組）。
●電力
間接刺激煤炭價走高，加上仍沒有實行燃油轉嫁機制與必須承擔獨立發電廠的成本，國家能源（TENAGA, 5347, 主板貿服組）盈利將受挫。
其他“受傷”領域
●汽車
若政府提高國內油價，將加重開車人士負擔，間直接衝擊國內汽車銷量。
●銀行
偏高油價將增加家庭或企業開銷，或讓貸款違約率走高，間接刺激呆帳率飆升。
●釀酒
―非直接衝擊者，惟若電費與燃料非走高，將增加電力與運輸成本。
●建材
由於寡頭壟斷特性，因此可轉嫁成本，惟胥視轉嫁成本的速度。
●橡膠手套
製造原料丁二烯成本與石油價有直接關係，令製造成本走高，惟丁晴手套製造商衝擊比天然膠製造商較大。
●媒體
新聞紙成本將走高，目前佔總成本30至40%，間接影響盈利。
●產業
有間接好處，主要是消費者可能以收購產業當作對抗通膨的護盤。惟若建材價格瞬間狂漲，仍可能影響賺幅，並導致二手承包商無法吸收成本而破產。
●科技
影響不大，惟預料宇琦科技（UCHITEC, 7100, 主板工業產品組）的機械配件成本可能走高4至6%。至於二級效應可能是高油價衝擊需求與消費力。
●香煙
非直接衝擊者，惟若電費與燃料費非走高，將增加電力與運輸成本。
●大道
可能衝擊交通量，惟影響料短暫，因為一般上4至6個月就會自行調整。
每漲10美元
亞洲成長料減速
另一方面，聯昌認為，若每桶國際油價攀漲10美元，大馬、新加坡、印尼、泰國、中國與香港的經濟成長將下滑0.3至1%。
印尼風險最大
印尼目前是油價走高最大風險者，新加坡則面對更多風險，主要是其緩衝來自服務領域與強勁貨幣。香港與中國則不太受影響，泰國衝擊也較輕。
此外，偏高油價可能加重政府預算，尤其是大馬、印尼與中國等偏高油價津貼地區。至於石油入口國股市與債券評級可能有下調風險，相反地出口國則有上調希望。”
週三布蘭特油價格已經飆升至每桶111.83美元，創下29個月新高。由於沙地阿拉伯、利比亞與伊朗佔全球石油產量19%，因此動盪將直接衝擊國際油價。
聯昌表示，假設全球供應影響不大，油價今年平均在每桶95美元，明年則為100美元。不過，若供應持續缺乏，可能激勵油價飆漲至每桶150美元。
“屆時將衝擊經濟活動、企業盈利與刺激通膨外，也會影響金融市場、股市、外匯與政府財政預算。”
通膨或介於0.2%至2.5%聯昌表示，若油價走高也會衝擊通膨。由於燃油佔通膨介於0.7%至11.6%，相關交通則佔9.1%與26.8%，因此食物價格與原料價格飆漲，將持續讓通膨走高。不過，聯昌相信一些政府可能會提供津貼來降溫，料對整體通膨影響介於0.2%至2.5%。
聯昌認為，高油價可能會影響利率調整，主要是油價走高可能會影響國內經濟成長與需求。
“不過，目前許多亞洲新興國家已經透過緊縮貨幣政策來壓低經濟過熱現象。
若油價持續走高，可望協助一些經濟活動放緩，減低這些國家貨幣政策緊縮的壓力。”
至於外匯方面，一些中行可能選擇讓貨幣升值來抑制進口通膨壓力，因此影響不大。
Source/转贴/Extract/: biz.sinchew-i.com
Publish date:24/02/11
地铁冲击周遭产业价值雪隆房地产迈向新元年
作者／本刊梁志华
Feb 24, 2011 06:30:04 pm
地铁的神话？（上）
【本刊梁志华撰述】被誉为马来西亚有史以来最浩大的基建计划——总值马币366亿元的地铁系统（MRT System）即将在今年七月开始动工。
首阶段路线——双溪毛糯（Sungai Buloh）至加影（Kajang）路线将会率先开跑。这条轨线全长9.5公里，涵盖35个地铁站与两个总站，贯穿吉隆坡市中心，途经人口密集且高度发展的主要城镇（Township），并与现有的电动火车（KTM）与轻快铁系统（LRT Line）衔接起来。
推动这项地铁系统基建工程的原意，是为了解决巴生谷流域（Klang Valley）现有的陆路交通瓶颈问题，以及应付未来的永续性发展。但是，当地铁系统的首阶段路线曝光后，交通课题退居二线，反倒是产业领域（Property Sector）反客为主，成了地铁系统最热门的话题。
据了解，巴生谷流域的地铁系统将会采用香港的地铁系统发展模式，即综合地铁路线周遭土地的产业发展计划，来为地铁系统的资本开销与营运开销融资。简言之，地铁路线所经之处，尤其是35个地铁站坐落地点的周遭范围，将会掀起一波产业发展热潮。根据官方资料，环绕在地铁系统的产业发展计划，估计每年可达到马币三亿元的发展总值。
产业领域行情看涨？
根据英文财经周刊《The Edge》的初步计算，从双溪毛糯一路通往加影的地铁轨线上，保守估计至少有20家上市产业公司，以及五家没有上市的著名产业公司，在这条路线上拥有已发展或还未发展的土地。一般相信，这些现有与新产业发展计划的产业价值将会水涨船高，激起一轮涨价潮。
此外，三大官联投资机构与主权基金——雇员公积金（ETP）、国民投资公司（PNB），以及一个马来西亚发展机构（1 Malaysia Development Bhd）也积极参与其盛，成为地铁系统周遭产业价值升值趋势的最大受益者之一。
其中，双溪毛糯—加影地铁路线的地铁总站之一，就坐落在雇员公积金局负责统筹的100亿元双溪毛糯大型综合产业计划（重新发展橡胶研究所的3000英亩土地）上。而国民投资公司的50亿元独立遗产（Warisan Merdeka）百层摩天楼产业计划，以及一个马来西亚发展机构负责发展的260亿元吉隆坡国际金融区（KLIFD），则被圈定为地铁站的坐落地点之一。
黄氏星展唯高达研究（HwangDBS Vickers Research）的研究结果显示，地铁系统有望带动整体产业领域，尤其是坐落在吉隆坡城市地区的地铁系统交接处（MRT Interchange）的周遭地皮与产业价格，料将水涨船高。该研究机构预期，未来三五年内，这些地铁路线的周遭土地价值估计将上涨11%至35%，而新住宅与商业产业计划则至少有20%-30%的升值空间。【点击：地铁系统周遭土地身价看涨 交通管理不当冲击产业价值】
还有一些产业分析师甚至大胆预测，地铁系统周遭地区的产业价值可能出现疯狂飙升的情况，涨幅介于100%至500%之间，涨幅最大令人咂舌！
粗略估计，从双溪毛糯到加影的地铁系统路线，涵盖大约9万1900栋产业，其中8万2700栋或90%产业属于住宅产业，居住人口总数达34万1000人。有40%的人口住在双溪毛糯到士曼丹（Semantan）之间的地区，而46%人口居住在焦赖至加影之间的地区。
此外，一些主要热点地点包括KLCC——武吉免登（Bukit Bintang）、吉隆坡中环广场（KL Sentral）、白沙罗市中心（Pusat Bandar Damansara）——白沙罗高原（Damansara Heights）、吉隆坡绿化城（KL Eco-City）——谷中城（Midvalley），以及冼都（Sentul），尤其是那些新兴开发的地点，其土地与新产业发展计划的价值更是行情看涨。
地铁与产业价格的迷思
在如此沸腾的气氛渲染之下，围绕着地铁系统的产业课题，目前已成为街头巷尾热衷讨论的话题。但是，地铁系统真的有如此大的“魔力”，可以让所有环绕在地铁路线周遭的现有产业，以及新兴产业发展计划“一跃龙门，身价百倍”？
从其他采用地铁系统的国家/地区的实际情况来分析，显然不是所有的产业都将从地铁系统计划的经济效益中受惠，甚至一些情况之下，产业价值陷入不升反跌的窘境。在产业发展商的推波助澜下，很多不知情的购屋者，一不小心可能就此掉入“发展地铁系统等于产业价格上涨”的迷思之中。
更可悲的是，从其他国家/地区的经验显示，地铁系统原本旨在提升市中心与外围偏远地区之间的交通连接性（有利于增加城市外围郊区人口的就业机会，改善这些地区的生活条件）。但是，这最终可能促使城市外围地区的房地产价格水涨船高，让那些无法在城市或热门地区购置房产，而考虑在城市外围地区置产的中低收入家庭，必须承担更高的生活成本压力，甚至难以实现“居者有其屋”的梦想。
噪音污染冲击产业价格
一份有关台北地铁与产业价格的研究报告——《台北地铁系统启动前后的产业价格分析》显示，在不同条件元素的影响下，台北地铁系统周遭的产业价格，在地铁系统启动前后出现不一样的结果。（注1）
比方说，该研究的分析结果显示，在台北地铁系统下，坐落在地面上与地底下的地铁站，对周遭的产业价值将带来截然不同的效应。那些坐落在地面上的地铁站，普遍上对房地产价格造成负面影响，因为地铁系统对毗邻的房地产带来环境上的破坏（比如严重的噪音污染）。
相比之下，坐落在地底下的地铁站则有望带动产业价格上扬。不过，这些产业的价值上涨空间非常有限，因为这些地下地铁站主要坐落在高度发展的市中心地区。这些产业价格普遍上已经非常高，因此，地铁站对产业价格的上涨空间影响有限。
按台北的实际经验来看，巴生谷流域的地铁系统，有很大可能性会出现同样的情况。实际上，一份由马来西亚环境局（Department of Environment Malaysia）负责拟定有关双溪毛糯至加影地铁系统的环境评估报告中就指出，在城市住宅区与城市外围住宅区所展开的地铁系统噪音测试结果显示，许多噪音水平已经高出可容忍的限制水平。（注2）
地铁噪音超过限制水平
该报告更直接指出，八打灵再也（Petaling Jaya）、哥打白沙罗（Kota Damansara）以及蕉赖（Cheras）周遭的住宅区，包括哥打白沙罗（Kota Damansara）第四和第六区、Pelangi Damansara公寓、敦依斯迈医生花园（TTDI）、Damansara Utama、八打灵再也（Petaling Jaya）17区、Bukit Damansara、Bukit Bandaraya、Taman Desa Aman;、Taman Connaught、Taman Koperasi等，必须承受地铁系统所带来的震动与噪音影响，从而对这些地区的产业价值造成负面冲击。
按照政府公布的地铁系统规划详情，地铁系统的营运时间是从清晨六时到午夜12时，在繁忙时间每趟3.5分钟，并将在未来把时间逐步缩短到每趟1.8分钟。可想而知，如此频密的地铁班次，将会为周遭住宅区带来怎样严重的噪音污染。
除此之外，双溪毛糯至加影的地铁系统，将从白沙罗市中心（Pusat Bandar Damansara）的地铁站后，开始进入地下道，一直到焦赖地区才回到地面上。这些地下地铁站主要集中在吉隆坡市中心地区，周遭产业价格已相当昂贵。
按照台北的经验来看，一些被产业分析师列为主要热点的地区，包括KLCC-武吉免登（Bukit Bintang）与吉隆坡中环广场（KL Sentral），以及国民投资公司的独立遗产产业计划和一个马来西亚发展机构的吉隆坡国际金融区（KLIFD），地铁站对相关产业价格的正面影响恐怕有限。在考量了吉隆坡市中心的商业产业供应过剩的风险因素后，地铁站对这些商业产业的升值效应将更加局限。
市外郊区产业价格飙升
另一方面，上述有关台北地铁与产业价格的研究报告结果还显示，地铁站对城市中心和城市外围地区的产业价格影响也出现不同的情况。基于台北市中心的产业价格已经非常高，因此，地铁系统的启动，对这些市中心地区的产业价格，只能带来微弱的上涨效应。
反观台北城市外围的郊外地区，地铁系统的启动显著刺激产业价值，促使这些城市外围地区的产业价格大幅上扬。这主要是因为，地铁系统显著改善城市外围地区的交通连接性与方便度，从而带动产业价格的上扬。
此外，一份由新加坡产业咨询公司撰写的分析报告也显示，在新加坡，那些在市中心或靠近市中心地区的产业，即使是在地铁站比邻，其产业价值也只会出现小幅升值的情况，因为对这些居民而言，地铁并非唯一的有效交通工具选择，而且对地铁的需求也不高。
反而那些坐落在离市中心偏远的地区，尤其是那些靠近地铁站的地区，其产业价值则出现显著升值的情况，因为这些地铁站为这些地区带来更方便的交通便利。
从台北和新加坡的经验，在一定程度上反映出一个现象，即地铁系统原本旨在提升市中心与外围偏远地区之间的交通连接性，有利于增加城市外围郊区人口的就业机会，改善这些地区的生活条件，并提高这些地区的产业价值。
但是，在地铁站的经济效应主题炒作之下，这最终可能促使城市外围地区的房地产价格大幅飙升，让那些无法在城市或热门地区购置房产，而考虑到城市外围地区置产的中低收入家庭，必须承担更高的房屋借贷成本压力，甚至难以实现“居者有其屋”的梦想。
注1：参考Jen-jia Lin and Chi-Hau Hwang, The Analysis of Property Prices Before and After Taipei MRT Opening.
注2：参考Department of Environment Malaysia，Klang Valley Mass Rapid Transit : Sg.Buloh–Kajang Line，Detailed Environmental Impact Assessment
Source/转贴/Extract/: www.merdekareview.com
Publish date:24/02/11
Feb 24, 2011 06:30:04 pm
地铁的神话？（上）
【本刊梁志华撰述】被誉为马来西亚有史以来最浩大的基建计划——总值马币366亿元的地铁系统（MRT System）即将在今年七月开始动工。
首阶段路线——双溪毛糯（Sungai Buloh）至加影（Kajang）路线将会率先开跑。这条轨线全长9.5公里，涵盖35个地铁站与两个总站，贯穿吉隆坡市中心，途经人口密集且高度发展的主要城镇（Township），并与现有的电动火车（KTM）与轻快铁系统（LRT Line）衔接起来。
推动这项地铁系统基建工程的原意，是为了解决巴生谷流域（Klang Valley）现有的陆路交通瓶颈问题，以及应付未来的永续性发展。但是，当地铁系统的首阶段路线曝光后，交通课题退居二线，反倒是产业领域（Property Sector）反客为主，成了地铁系统最热门的话题。
据了解，巴生谷流域的地铁系统将会采用香港的地铁系统发展模式，即综合地铁路线周遭土地的产业发展计划，来为地铁系统的资本开销与营运开销融资。简言之，地铁路线所经之处，尤其是35个地铁站坐落地点的周遭范围，将会掀起一波产业发展热潮。根据官方资料，环绕在地铁系统的产业发展计划，估计每年可达到马币三亿元的发展总值。
产业领域行情看涨？
根据英文财经周刊《The Edge》的初步计算，从双溪毛糯一路通往加影的地铁轨线上，保守估计至少有20家上市产业公司，以及五家没有上市的著名产业公司，在这条路线上拥有已发展或还未发展的土地。一般相信，这些现有与新产业发展计划的产业价值将会水涨船高，激起一轮涨价潮。
此外，三大官联投资机构与主权基金——雇员公积金（ETP）、国民投资公司（PNB），以及一个马来西亚发展机构（1 Malaysia Development Bhd）也积极参与其盛，成为地铁系统周遭产业价值升值趋势的最大受益者之一。
其中，双溪毛糯—加影地铁路线的地铁总站之一，就坐落在雇员公积金局负责统筹的100亿元双溪毛糯大型综合产业计划（重新发展橡胶研究所的3000英亩土地）上。而国民投资公司的50亿元独立遗产（Warisan Merdeka）百层摩天楼产业计划，以及一个马来西亚发展机构负责发展的260亿元吉隆坡国际金融区（KLIFD），则被圈定为地铁站的坐落地点之一。
黄氏星展唯高达研究（HwangDBS Vickers Research）的研究结果显示，地铁系统有望带动整体产业领域，尤其是坐落在吉隆坡城市地区的地铁系统交接处（MRT Interchange）的周遭地皮与产业价格，料将水涨船高。该研究机构预期，未来三五年内，这些地铁路线的周遭土地价值估计将上涨11%至35%，而新住宅与商业产业计划则至少有20%-30%的升值空间。【点击：地铁系统周遭土地身价看涨 交通管理不当冲击产业价值】
还有一些产业分析师甚至大胆预测，地铁系统周遭地区的产业价值可能出现疯狂飙升的情况，涨幅介于100%至500%之间，涨幅最大令人咂舌！
粗略估计，从双溪毛糯到加影的地铁系统路线，涵盖大约9万1900栋产业，其中8万2700栋或90%产业属于住宅产业，居住人口总数达34万1000人。有40%的人口住在双溪毛糯到士曼丹（Semantan）之间的地区，而46%人口居住在焦赖至加影之间的地区。
此外，一些主要热点地点包括KLCC——武吉免登（Bukit Bintang）、吉隆坡中环广场（KL Sentral）、白沙罗市中心（Pusat Bandar Damansara）——白沙罗高原（Damansara Heights）、吉隆坡绿化城（KL Eco-City）——谷中城（Midvalley），以及冼都（Sentul），尤其是那些新兴开发的地点，其土地与新产业发展计划的价值更是行情看涨。
地铁与产业价格的迷思
在如此沸腾的气氛渲染之下，围绕着地铁系统的产业课题，目前已成为街头巷尾热衷讨论的话题。但是，地铁系统真的有如此大的“魔力”，可以让所有环绕在地铁路线周遭的现有产业，以及新兴产业发展计划“一跃龙门，身价百倍”？
从其他采用地铁系统的国家/地区的实际情况来分析，显然不是所有的产业都将从地铁系统计划的经济效益中受惠，甚至一些情况之下，产业价值陷入不升反跌的窘境。在产业发展商的推波助澜下，很多不知情的购屋者，一不小心可能就此掉入“发展地铁系统等于产业价格上涨”的迷思之中。
更可悲的是，从其他国家/地区的经验显示，地铁系统原本旨在提升市中心与外围偏远地区之间的交通连接性（有利于增加城市外围郊区人口的就业机会，改善这些地区的生活条件）。但是，这最终可能促使城市外围地区的房地产价格水涨船高，让那些无法在城市或热门地区购置房产，而考虑在城市外围地区置产的中低收入家庭，必须承担更高的生活成本压力，甚至难以实现“居者有其屋”的梦想。
噪音污染冲击产业价格
一份有关台北地铁与产业价格的研究报告——《台北地铁系统启动前后的产业价格分析》显示，在不同条件元素的影响下，台北地铁系统周遭的产业价格，在地铁系统启动前后出现不一样的结果。（注1）
比方说，该研究的分析结果显示，在台北地铁系统下，坐落在地面上与地底下的地铁站，对周遭的产业价值将带来截然不同的效应。那些坐落在地面上的地铁站，普遍上对房地产价格造成负面影响，因为地铁系统对毗邻的房地产带来环境上的破坏（比如严重的噪音污染）。
相比之下，坐落在地底下的地铁站则有望带动产业价格上扬。不过，这些产业的价值上涨空间非常有限，因为这些地下地铁站主要坐落在高度发展的市中心地区。这些产业价格普遍上已经非常高，因此，地铁站对产业价格的上涨空间影响有限。
按台北的实际经验来看，巴生谷流域的地铁系统，有很大可能性会出现同样的情况。实际上，一份由马来西亚环境局（Department of Environment Malaysia）负责拟定有关双溪毛糯至加影地铁系统的环境评估报告中就指出，在城市住宅区与城市外围住宅区所展开的地铁系统噪音测试结果显示，许多噪音水平已经高出可容忍的限制水平。（注2）
地铁噪音超过限制水平
该报告更直接指出，八打灵再也（Petaling Jaya）、哥打白沙罗（Kota Damansara）以及蕉赖（Cheras）周遭的住宅区，包括哥打白沙罗（Kota Damansara）第四和第六区、Pelangi Damansara公寓、敦依斯迈医生花园（TTDI）、Damansara Utama、八打灵再也（Petaling Jaya）17区、Bukit Damansara、Bukit Bandaraya、Taman Desa Aman;、Taman Connaught、Taman Koperasi等，必须承受地铁系统所带来的震动与噪音影响，从而对这些地区的产业价值造成负面冲击。
按照政府公布的地铁系统规划详情，地铁系统的营运时间是从清晨六时到午夜12时，在繁忙时间每趟3.5分钟，并将在未来把时间逐步缩短到每趟1.8分钟。可想而知，如此频密的地铁班次，将会为周遭住宅区带来怎样严重的噪音污染。
除此之外，双溪毛糯至加影的地铁系统，将从白沙罗市中心（Pusat Bandar Damansara）的地铁站后，开始进入地下道，一直到焦赖地区才回到地面上。这些地下地铁站主要集中在吉隆坡市中心地区，周遭产业价格已相当昂贵。
按照台北的经验来看，一些被产业分析师列为主要热点的地区，包括KLCC-武吉免登（Bukit Bintang）与吉隆坡中环广场（KL Sentral），以及国民投资公司的独立遗产产业计划和一个马来西亚发展机构的吉隆坡国际金融区（KLIFD），地铁站对相关产业价格的正面影响恐怕有限。在考量了吉隆坡市中心的商业产业供应过剩的风险因素后，地铁站对这些商业产业的升值效应将更加局限。
市外郊区产业价格飙升
另一方面，上述有关台北地铁与产业价格的研究报告结果还显示，地铁站对城市中心和城市外围地区的产业价格影响也出现不同的情况。基于台北市中心的产业价格已经非常高，因此，地铁系统的启动，对这些市中心地区的产业价格，只能带来微弱的上涨效应。
反观台北城市外围的郊外地区，地铁系统的启动显著刺激产业价值，促使这些城市外围地区的产业价格大幅上扬。这主要是因为，地铁系统显著改善城市外围地区的交通连接性与方便度，从而带动产业价格的上扬。
此外，一份由新加坡产业咨询公司撰写的分析报告也显示，在新加坡，那些在市中心或靠近市中心地区的产业，即使是在地铁站比邻，其产业价值也只会出现小幅升值的情况，因为对这些居民而言，地铁并非唯一的有效交通工具选择，而且对地铁的需求也不高。
反而那些坐落在离市中心偏远的地区，尤其是那些靠近地铁站的地区，其产业价值则出现显著升值的情况，因为这些地铁站为这些地区带来更方便的交通便利。
从台北和新加坡的经验，在一定程度上反映出一个现象，即地铁系统原本旨在提升市中心与外围偏远地区之间的交通连接性，有利于增加城市外围郊区人口的就业机会，改善这些地区的生活条件，并提高这些地区的产业价值。
但是，在地铁站的经济效应主题炒作之下，这最终可能促使城市外围地区的房地产价格大幅飙升，让那些无法在城市或热门地区购置房产，而考虑到城市外围地区置产的中低收入家庭，必须承担更高的房屋借贷成本压力，甚至难以实现“居者有其屋”的梦想。
注1：参考Jen-jia Lin and Chi-Hau Hwang, The Analysis of Property Prices Before and After Taipei MRT Opening.
注2：参考Department of Environment Malaysia，Klang Valley Mass Rapid Transit : Sg.Buloh–Kajang Line，Detailed Environmental Impact Assessment
Source/转贴/Extract/: www.merdekareview.com
Publish date:24/02/11
Oil price surge deja vu -Win some, lose some (CIMB)
24 February 2011
Oil price surge deja vu
1,511.1 @23/02/11
OVERWEIGHT Maintained
Win some, lose some
Winners and losers
Oiled by fears of the impact of political uprisings in the MENA region on oil production, oil price has risen sharply, raising questions about its impact on regional economies. Rising oil price is both a boon and bane for Malaysia. Although Malaysia will gain as it is still a net exporter of oil, petrol and gas subsidies could increase, causing more distortions for the economy. Drilling down, we note that higher oil prices are negative for heavyweights in the airlines, shipping and power sectors. This more than offsets the gains for the oil & gas and plantation companies. Still, Malaysia is in a more fortunate position than non-oil producers. We maintain our OVERWEIGHT stance and KLCI target of 1,700 points. Potential catalysts continue to be 1) the country’s transformation programmes, and 2) the positive impact from several upcoming elections.
The news
The successful political uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt have stirred fears of possible disruptions to oil-producing countries if the unrest spreads to other countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Violent clashes have flared up in Libya, a country that produced 1.8m barrels of oil per day in 2009. Of greater concern is the possibility of violence spreading to major oil-producing countries in the Middle East. While Bahrain has also experienced protests, it is not a significant oil producer. It is located next door to Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in the world at 12m barrels/day. The price of Brent crude oil has barrelled ahead by more than 150% since it hit bottom during the global financial crisis. YTD, it is up 19% at above US$100/barrel. Although it is still 23% off the all-time high scaled in mid-2008, the troubles in the MENA region and stronger demand driven by the global economic recovery could mean further increases in oil prices.
Economic impact
Being a net exporter of oil, Malaysia stands to benefit from higher oil prices in the short run due to an improvement in trade as export earnings from petroleum and petroleum products accounted for 9.1% of total gross exports in 2010. However, the country’s economic growth could be affected somewhat in the medium term through second round effects, i.e. a decline in exports as a slowdown in global economic growth triggers a loss of momentum for the economies of Malaysia’s major trading partners. The Malaysian economy remains fundamentally strong, with real GDP bouncing back to 7.2% in 2010 after a 1.7% contraction in 2009. Faced with moderating exports in 2011, domestic demand will continue to support overall GDP growth, backed by the ongoing implementation of the 10th Malaysia Plan (10MP) and Economic Transformation Programme (ETP). We maintain our GDP growth baseline estimates of 5.5% for this year and 6.5% for 2012. Our oil price sensitivity analysis suggests that the sustained high oil price could shave 0.5% pts off Malaysia’s GDP growth. The major external and domestic downside risks to the growth are (1) the sustained high oil prices which could stall the global recovery, (2) policy risks in Asia in the management of capital flows and inflation expectations, which could dampen regional demand, and thereby affect Malaysia’s exports, and (3) the delay in the ETP and the subpar investment growth.
Stockmarket impact
In Malaysia, there are more losers than winners in an environment of rising oil prices. Those directly and most immediately negatively affected are the airlines, shipping and power sectors which face higher input costs. Sectors that are also negatively affected, but only if oil prices rise very significantly in a short period of time, include construction, media, property, auto, toll roads, rubber glove and flexible packaging as these sectors would be hit by higher transport and raw material input costs. Winners are fewer, being the oil & gas, petrochemical and plantation sectors which benefit from rising commodity prices. Telcos are indirect beneficiaries as a cutback in traveling could boost spending on calls and teleconferences.
Key winners:
Oil & gas – Oil & gas producers are more willing to open their wallets when oil prices are high. High oil prices give them more incentive to step up exploration and production activities, which in turn benefit Malaysian oil & gas companies which are mostly service providers. The higher oil prices have prompted Petronas to develop marginal fields, a venture that is not economically viable in a low oil price environment. Furthermore, recent discoveries in offshore Sarawak and the six deepwater fields (Gumusut, Kakap, Malikai, Kebabangan, Jangas and Pisangan) that are expected to come onstream in 2012-13 offer bright prospects for the service providers, both upstream and downstream.
Petrochemicals – Unlike most naphtha-based petrochemical peers, PetChem is a key beneficiary of the oil price uptrend as higher oil prices will lead to higher petrochemical product prices. As PetChem's feedstock cost will be relatively stable, this will lead to higher EBITDA margins. Based on our bullish oil price assumptions, we expect an EBITDA margin expansion to above 30% over the next few years. As long as oil price stays above US$20/bbl, which is the breakeven level between oil and gas feedstock, high oil prices will be a key margin driver for gas-based PetChem.
Plantations – A higher crude oil price enhances the economic viability of biofuels such as biodiesel and ethanol and may boost demand for edible oils and grains for biofuel production. It also provides a higher floor price for CPO and could prompt more governments to announce biofuel incentives. At the current crude oil price of US$86 per barrel, we estimate the CPO-biodiesel breakeven price to be only RM2,350 per tonne or 36% below the current spot price. For CPO price to be supported at current level of RM3,700 per tonne, crude oil price will need to surge to US$140 per barrel and above. Our current average CPO price forecasts of RM3,200 per tonne for 2011 and RM2,900 per tonne for 2012 will be supported by biodiesel demand at crude oil prices of US$123 and US$110 per barrel, respectively, higher than today’s crude oil price. This is because our bullish CPO price projections are driven by concern of tighterthan- usual edible oil supplies due to adverse weather conditions. As such, the recent oil price rally will not affect our CPO price projection unless it tops US$140 per barrel.
Key losers:
Airlines – Airlines will struggle to manage the higher cost of fuel for a few reasons (1) if fuel prices rise too quickly, fuel surcharges cannot be adjusted as fast, (2) forward bookings prevent full pass-through as ticket prices have been locked in based on lower fuel prices, and (3) the use of derivative hedging instruments has been reduced since the crisis and airlines are generally hedged at low levels currently. AirAsia has hedged only 15% of its 1Q consumption while MAS has hedged one-third of its fullyear requirements. We are currently assuming an average spot jet fuel price of US$110/barrel for 2011, against the current spot price of US$124/barrel. For every US$5/barrel increase (+4.5% above our current assumption), AirAsia’s core net profit declines 8.3% assuming no increases in fares/surcharges while the negative impact for MAS is a whopping 41% reduction in core net profit. Expressing this in another way, a 10% increase from our current spot jet fuel price assumption would reduce core EPS by 18% for AirAsia and 89% for MAS. This wide disparity is due to the different profitability levels as MAS is expected to record a core net profit margin of only 3.8% this year against AirAsia’s 18.5% margin.
Shipping – Rising bunker prices come at a very bad time for both MISC and Maybulk, as crude tanker, chemical tanker and bulk shipping freight rates are expected to be weak. The double whammy will hit both companies’ bottomlines but the exact impact is difficult to assess because bunker consumption is rarely disclosed and different types of contracts create variability in terms of the party ultimately responsible for bearing fuel costs. Under time charter arrangements, the charterer bears fuel costs and not the shipping company while under contracts of affreightment (COAs) or single voyage charters, the shipping company pays for fuel. For MISC, its LNG and offshore businesses are typically performed under time charters but its container liner, chemical tanker, and part of its crude tanker businesses are conducted on spot/COA terms. The heavy engineering segment has relatively limited exposure to fuel price escalation. For Maybulk, its mix of time/spot charters or COAs has never been clearly disclosed but as with MISC, the overall impact is likely to be negative. In mitigation, both MISC and Maybulk may have bunker pass-through clauses in their non-time charter contracts, which could partially offset the impact of higher bunker costs.
Power – Tenaga’s earnings are sensitive to rising coal prices given that i) there is no fuel cost pass-through mechanism and ii) fuel and IPP costs collectively account for more than half of its total operational expenses. As oil is a major fuel for coal production, rising crude oil prices are likely to push coal price higher. Tenaga’s average coal cost settled at US$95.50/MT in 1QFY8/11, marginally lower than 4QFY10’s US$97/MT and our FY11 estimate of US$100/MT. But we stress that there is upward bias to the average coal price given i) the higher coal production cost amidst rising crude oil prices, and 2) reduction in coal output stemming from the recent floods in Australia. The national utility company has only managed to lock in 18% of the 18.1m MT of coal that it expects to procure in FY11. Management revealed that the pricing for another 48% of its coal needs will be index-linked while the pricing for the remaining 34% will be negotiated. Our sensitivity analysis shows a 17-18% hit to our FY11-12 core net profit for every US$10/MT increase in our coal price assumption. Other sectors:
Auto – A persistent rise in oil prices could pose a problem for the auto sector if it prompts the government to raise fuel prices. Logically speaking, vehicle sales growth momentum could decelerate due to the higher cost of owning a vehicle. But in 2008, total vehicle sales were unperturbed by a 40% hike in fuel prices and ended the year 13% higher. Also, our study on the historical correlation between petrol prices (RON95) and vehicle sales failed to reveal any clear relationship between these two variables.
Taking our cue from past price increases and the corresponding impact on vehicle sales volume, and considering the dismal public transportation system in Malaysia, we think that future fuel price hikes are unlikely to affect vehicle sales drastically provided they are gradual.
Banks – Theoretically, higher oil prices would have a negative impact on banks as it could cause a rise in the impaired loan ratio as higher oil prices would increase expenses for some individuals and companies, making it harder for them to meet their commitments. But looking back at the oil price surge in 2008, we see that it did not have much impact on banks. In fact, the net NPL ratio dropped from 6.5% to 4.8% despite the surge in oil price.
Brewery – Similar to the tobacco sector, the brewery sector is not a direct loser in an environment of escalating oil prices. But if the high oil prices trigger an increase in electricity tariffs and fuel prices, brewers such as Guinness Anchor and Carlsberg Brewery could be affected as it increases the cost of utilities and transportation. Building materials – We believe the cement industry will be able to weather a sustained rise in oil prices better in 2011 than in 2008 as it can raise prices due to its oligopolistic structure. Before May 2008, cement prices were controlled. Some 60% of the production cost for cement is energy related and predominantly linked to coal prices. We gather from industry players that cement prices could rise in 2011 to compensate for higher coal costs, which have risen from c.US$90/t in Aug 2010 to c.US$120/t. Our forecasts factor in a RM25/t rise in cement prices in 2011 to RM325/t. Our higher cement price forecast is also predicated on higher cement demand in Peninsular Malaysia, which we believe could rise by 2-3% in 2011.
Gloves – Persistently high oil prices are negative for nitrile glovemakers as the price of butadiene, the main raw material for nitrile, is closely correlated with crude oil prices. Nitrile glove manufacturers absorbed part of the steep rise in butadiene price in 2H10 but are unlikely to do so if prices escalate further. This would be positive for natural rubber glove players such as Top Glove (TOPG MK; Outperform) as it would erode the cost advantage that nitrile gloves currently have over natural rubber gloves, which has been a boon for nitrile specialists such as our top pick Hartalega (HART MK; Outperform).
Media – For the media sector, rising oil prices would be negative for margins as newsprint cost is positively correlated with crude oil prices. Looking back to 2008, we see that newsprint spot prices increased 24% from US$563/tonne to US$696/tonne from the point when crude oil prices was close to its current level of ~US$86/barrel to its high of US$145/barrel in Jul 08. Three months after crude oil price touched US$145/barrel, newsprint spot prices rose 8% from US$696/tonne to a 3-year high of US$750/tonne. Newsprint spot price is now US$623/tonne and is relatively unchanged YTD. For newspaper companies, newsprint makes up 30-40% of total cost. The companies have typically been able to cover part of the cost increase through ad rate and cover price increases. Assuming no price increases, each US$10 rise in newsprint cost would dent newspaper companies' bottomlines by about 4-5%.
Property – The property sector should be a beneficiary of rising oil prices and inflationary pressure as it is considered to be a natural hedge. In mid-2008 when oil prices jumped to US$145/barrel, property prices and transactions picked up pace. However, if building material costs rise too fast and sudden and developers cannot fully pass on the costs to buyers, they will have to absorb the higher costs and live with lower margins as the alternative is putting their subcontractors at risk of bankruptcy, which would mean delays for the developer and a dent on their reputations. In conclusion, mild inflationary pressures are positive for the property sector but there is a breaking point at which developers would also be negatively affected.
Technology – For the tech sector, higher oil prices will have a more muted impact and the company that is most exposed is probably Uchi. It is already anticipating a 4-6% cost increase for mechanical components, which fortunately make up a small part of overall costs. The semiconductor players are more insulated as gold is the major raw material and oil has very indirect impact via higher transport costs and through mould compounds, both of which are not significant influences on cost. Back in 2008, the semiconductor sector was affected more by falling demand and lower utilisation rates, along with a strengthening currency and higher gold prices.
Tobacco – The tobacco sector will not be directly affected by escalating oil prices. But if high oil prices trigger a rise in electricity tariffs and fuel prices, tobacco manufacturers such as British American Tobacco and JT International could be affected. Utility costs will increase and a fuel price hike will raise the cost of distributing finished goods to the retailers.
Toll highways - For the toll sector, higher crude oil prices pose upside risks to petrol prices, which would be negative for travel patterns. However, the impact is usually temporary as traffic volume typically normalises within 4-6 months. The impact is minimal for toll revenue and net profit.
Valuation and recommendation
Oil prices have been on a relatively steep uptrend since the trough of the global financial crisis and have gone up even more recently on concern over the impact of the political uprisings on oil production. It is difficult to tell how long the unrest in the MENA region will persist and how widespread it will be. Rising oil prices are both a boon and bane for Malaysia. Although it is still a net oil exporter and will gain from higher prices, petrol and gas subsidies could increase and cause more distortions for the economy. Also, higher oil prices are negative for heavyweights in the airlines, shipping and power sectors and more than offset the gains for the oil & gas and plantation companies. Furthermore, many other sectors would be negatively affected by higher transportation and energy costs.
Although it is too early to draw parallels between this round of oil price increases and that of 2008, the trend is nonetheless worrying and we have to keep a close eye on this as oil price’s continued rise could increase the risk of a double-dip for the developed economies. Malaysia is fortunate as it is still a net oil exporter and the ETP should provide some insulation against external pressures. We maintain our OVERWEIGHT on Malaysia and KLCI target of 1,700 points as it is better placed to withstand the impact of rising oil prices on the economy and corporate earnings than other non-oil producing countries. Potential re-rating catalysts continue to be 1) the country’s transformation programmes, and 2) the positive impact of several upcoming elections.
Source/转贴/Extract/:CIMB Research
Publish date:24/02/11
Oil price surge deja vu
1,511.1 @23/02/11
OVERWEIGHT Maintained
Win some, lose some
Winners and losers
Oiled by fears of the impact of political uprisings in the MENA region on oil production, oil price has risen sharply, raising questions about its impact on regional economies. Rising oil price is both a boon and bane for Malaysia. Although Malaysia will gain as it is still a net exporter of oil, petrol and gas subsidies could increase, causing more distortions for the economy. Drilling down, we note that higher oil prices are negative for heavyweights in the airlines, shipping and power sectors. This more than offsets the gains for the oil & gas and plantation companies. Still, Malaysia is in a more fortunate position than non-oil producers. We maintain our OVERWEIGHT stance and KLCI target of 1,700 points. Potential catalysts continue to be 1) the country’s transformation programmes, and 2) the positive impact from several upcoming elections.
The news
The successful political uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt have stirred fears of possible disruptions to oil-producing countries if the unrest spreads to other countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. Violent clashes have flared up in Libya, a country that produced 1.8m barrels of oil per day in 2009. Of greater concern is the possibility of violence spreading to major oil-producing countries in the Middle East. While Bahrain has also experienced protests, it is not a significant oil producer. It is located next door to Saudi Arabia, the largest oil producer in the world at 12m barrels/day. The price of Brent crude oil has barrelled ahead by more than 150% since it hit bottom during the global financial crisis. YTD, it is up 19% at above US$100/barrel. Although it is still 23% off the all-time high scaled in mid-2008, the troubles in the MENA region and stronger demand driven by the global economic recovery could mean further increases in oil prices.
Economic impact
Being a net exporter of oil, Malaysia stands to benefit from higher oil prices in the short run due to an improvement in trade as export earnings from petroleum and petroleum products accounted for 9.1% of total gross exports in 2010. However, the country’s economic growth could be affected somewhat in the medium term through second round effects, i.e. a decline in exports as a slowdown in global economic growth triggers a loss of momentum for the economies of Malaysia’s major trading partners. The Malaysian economy remains fundamentally strong, with real GDP bouncing back to 7.2% in 2010 after a 1.7% contraction in 2009. Faced with moderating exports in 2011, domestic demand will continue to support overall GDP growth, backed by the ongoing implementation of the 10th Malaysia Plan (10MP) and Economic Transformation Programme (ETP). We maintain our GDP growth baseline estimates of 5.5% for this year and 6.5% for 2012. Our oil price sensitivity analysis suggests that the sustained high oil price could shave 0.5% pts off Malaysia’s GDP growth. The major external and domestic downside risks to the growth are (1) the sustained high oil prices which could stall the global recovery, (2) policy risks in Asia in the management of capital flows and inflation expectations, which could dampen regional demand, and thereby affect Malaysia’s exports, and (3) the delay in the ETP and the subpar investment growth.
Stockmarket impact
In Malaysia, there are more losers than winners in an environment of rising oil prices. Those directly and most immediately negatively affected are the airlines, shipping and power sectors which face higher input costs. Sectors that are also negatively affected, but only if oil prices rise very significantly in a short period of time, include construction, media, property, auto, toll roads, rubber glove and flexible packaging as these sectors would be hit by higher transport and raw material input costs. Winners are fewer, being the oil & gas, petrochemical and plantation sectors which benefit from rising commodity prices. Telcos are indirect beneficiaries as a cutback in traveling could boost spending on calls and teleconferences.
Key winners:
Oil & gas – Oil & gas producers are more willing to open their wallets when oil prices are high. High oil prices give them more incentive to step up exploration and production activities, which in turn benefit Malaysian oil & gas companies which are mostly service providers. The higher oil prices have prompted Petronas to develop marginal fields, a venture that is not economically viable in a low oil price environment. Furthermore, recent discoveries in offshore Sarawak and the six deepwater fields (Gumusut, Kakap, Malikai, Kebabangan, Jangas and Pisangan) that are expected to come onstream in 2012-13 offer bright prospects for the service providers, both upstream and downstream.
Petrochemicals – Unlike most naphtha-based petrochemical peers, PetChem is a key beneficiary of the oil price uptrend as higher oil prices will lead to higher petrochemical product prices. As PetChem's feedstock cost will be relatively stable, this will lead to higher EBITDA margins. Based on our bullish oil price assumptions, we expect an EBITDA margin expansion to above 30% over the next few years. As long as oil price stays above US$20/bbl, which is the breakeven level between oil and gas feedstock, high oil prices will be a key margin driver for gas-based PetChem.
Plantations – A higher crude oil price enhances the economic viability of biofuels such as biodiesel and ethanol and may boost demand for edible oils and grains for biofuel production. It also provides a higher floor price for CPO and could prompt more governments to announce biofuel incentives. At the current crude oil price of US$86 per barrel, we estimate the CPO-biodiesel breakeven price to be only RM2,350 per tonne or 36% below the current spot price. For CPO price to be supported at current level of RM3,700 per tonne, crude oil price will need to surge to US$140 per barrel and above. Our current average CPO price forecasts of RM3,200 per tonne for 2011 and RM2,900 per tonne for 2012 will be supported by biodiesel demand at crude oil prices of US$123 and US$110 per barrel, respectively, higher than today’s crude oil price. This is because our bullish CPO price projections are driven by concern of tighterthan- usual edible oil supplies due to adverse weather conditions. As such, the recent oil price rally will not affect our CPO price projection unless it tops US$140 per barrel.
Key losers:
Airlines – Airlines will struggle to manage the higher cost of fuel for a few reasons (1) if fuel prices rise too quickly, fuel surcharges cannot be adjusted as fast, (2) forward bookings prevent full pass-through as ticket prices have been locked in based on lower fuel prices, and (3) the use of derivative hedging instruments has been reduced since the crisis and airlines are generally hedged at low levels currently. AirAsia has hedged only 15% of its 1Q consumption while MAS has hedged one-third of its fullyear requirements. We are currently assuming an average spot jet fuel price of US$110/barrel for 2011, against the current spot price of US$124/barrel. For every US$5/barrel increase (+4.5% above our current assumption), AirAsia’s core net profit declines 8.3% assuming no increases in fares/surcharges while the negative impact for MAS is a whopping 41% reduction in core net profit. Expressing this in another way, a 10% increase from our current spot jet fuel price assumption would reduce core EPS by 18% for AirAsia and 89% for MAS. This wide disparity is due to the different profitability levels as MAS is expected to record a core net profit margin of only 3.8% this year against AirAsia’s 18.5% margin.
Shipping – Rising bunker prices come at a very bad time for both MISC and Maybulk, as crude tanker, chemical tanker and bulk shipping freight rates are expected to be weak. The double whammy will hit both companies’ bottomlines but the exact impact is difficult to assess because bunker consumption is rarely disclosed and different types of contracts create variability in terms of the party ultimately responsible for bearing fuel costs. Under time charter arrangements, the charterer bears fuel costs and not the shipping company while under contracts of affreightment (COAs) or single voyage charters, the shipping company pays for fuel. For MISC, its LNG and offshore businesses are typically performed under time charters but its container liner, chemical tanker, and part of its crude tanker businesses are conducted on spot/COA terms. The heavy engineering segment has relatively limited exposure to fuel price escalation. For Maybulk, its mix of time/spot charters or COAs has never been clearly disclosed but as with MISC, the overall impact is likely to be negative. In mitigation, both MISC and Maybulk may have bunker pass-through clauses in their non-time charter contracts, which could partially offset the impact of higher bunker costs.
Power – Tenaga’s earnings are sensitive to rising coal prices given that i) there is no fuel cost pass-through mechanism and ii) fuel and IPP costs collectively account for more than half of its total operational expenses. As oil is a major fuel for coal production, rising crude oil prices are likely to push coal price higher. Tenaga’s average coal cost settled at US$95.50/MT in 1QFY8/11, marginally lower than 4QFY10’s US$97/MT and our FY11 estimate of US$100/MT. But we stress that there is upward bias to the average coal price given i) the higher coal production cost amidst rising crude oil prices, and 2) reduction in coal output stemming from the recent floods in Australia. The national utility company has only managed to lock in 18% of the 18.1m MT of coal that it expects to procure in FY11. Management revealed that the pricing for another 48% of its coal needs will be index-linked while the pricing for the remaining 34% will be negotiated. Our sensitivity analysis shows a 17-18% hit to our FY11-12 core net profit for every US$10/MT increase in our coal price assumption. Other sectors:
Auto – A persistent rise in oil prices could pose a problem for the auto sector if it prompts the government to raise fuel prices. Logically speaking, vehicle sales growth momentum could decelerate due to the higher cost of owning a vehicle. But in 2008, total vehicle sales were unperturbed by a 40% hike in fuel prices and ended the year 13% higher. Also, our study on the historical correlation between petrol prices (RON95) and vehicle sales failed to reveal any clear relationship between these two variables.
Taking our cue from past price increases and the corresponding impact on vehicle sales volume, and considering the dismal public transportation system in Malaysia, we think that future fuel price hikes are unlikely to affect vehicle sales drastically provided they are gradual.
Banks – Theoretically, higher oil prices would have a negative impact on banks as it could cause a rise in the impaired loan ratio as higher oil prices would increase expenses for some individuals and companies, making it harder for them to meet their commitments. But looking back at the oil price surge in 2008, we see that it did not have much impact on banks. In fact, the net NPL ratio dropped from 6.5% to 4.8% despite the surge in oil price.
Brewery – Similar to the tobacco sector, the brewery sector is not a direct loser in an environment of escalating oil prices. But if the high oil prices trigger an increase in electricity tariffs and fuel prices, brewers such as Guinness Anchor and Carlsberg Brewery could be affected as it increases the cost of utilities and transportation. Building materials – We believe the cement industry will be able to weather a sustained rise in oil prices better in 2011 than in 2008 as it can raise prices due to its oligopolistic structure. Before May 2008, cement prices were controlled. Some 60% of the production cost for cement is energy related and predominantly linked to coal prices. We gather from industry players that cement prices could rise in 2011 to compensate for higher coal costs, which have risen from c.US$90/t in Aug 2010 to c.US$120/t. Our forecasts factor in a RM25/t rise in cement prices in 2011 to RM325/t. Our higher cement price forecast is also predicated on higher cement demand in Peninsular Malaysia, which we believe could rise by 2-3% in 2011.
Gloves – Persistently high oil prices are negative for nitrile glovemakers as the price of butadiene, the main raw material for nitrile, is closely correlated with crude oil prices. Nitrile glove manufacturers absorbed part of the steep rise in butadiene price in 2H10 but are unlikely to do so if prices escalate further. This would be positive for natural rubber glove players such as Top Glove (TOPG MK; Outperform) as it would erode the cost advantage that nitrile gloves currently have over natural rubber gloves, which has been a boon for nitrile specialists such as our top pick Hartalega (HART MK; Outperform).
Media – For the media sector, rising oil prices would be negative for margins as newsprint cost is positively correlated with crude oil prices. Looking back to 2008, we see that newsprint spot prices increased 24% from US$563/tonne to US$696/tonne from the point when crude oil prices was close to its current level of ~US$86/barrel to its high of US$145/barrel in Jul 08. Three months after crude oil price touched US$145/barrel, newsprint spot prices rose 8% from US$696/tonne to a 3-year high of US$750/tonne. Newsprint spot price is now US$623/tonne and is relatively unchanged YTD. For newspaper companies, newsprint makes up 30-40% of total cost. The companies have typically been able to cover part of the cost increase through ad rate and cover price increases. Assuming no price increases, each US$10 rise in newsprint cost would dent newspaper companies' bottomlines by about 4-5%.
Property – The property sector should be a beneficiary of rising oil prices and inflationary pressure as it is considered to be a natural hedge. In mid-2008 when oil prices jumped to US$145/barrel, property prices and transactions picked up pace. However, if building material costs rise too fast and sudden and developers cannot fully pass on the costs to buyers, they will have to absorb the higher costs and live with lower margins as the alternative is putting their subcontractors at risk of bankruptcy, which would mean delays for the developer and a dent on their reputations. In conclusion, mild inflationary pressures are positive for the property sector but there is a breaking point at which developers would also be negatively affected.
Technology – For the tech sector, higher oil prices will have a more muted impact and the company that is most exposed is probably Uchi. It is already anticipating a 4-6% cost increase for mechanical components, which fortunately make up a small part of overall costs. The semiconductor players are more insulated as gold is the major raw material and oil has very indirect impact via higher transport costs and through mould compounds, both of which are not significant influences on cost. Back in 2008, the semiconductor sector was affected more by falling demand and lower utilisation rates, along with a strengthening currency and higher gold prices.
Tobacco – The tobacco sector will not be directly affected by escalating oil prices. But if high oil prices trigger a rise in electricity tariffs and fuel prices, tobacco manufacturers such as British American Tobacco and JT International could be affected. Utility costs will increase and a fuel price hike will raise the cost of distributing finished goods to the retailers.
Toll highways - For the toll sector, higher crude oil prices pose upside risks to petrol prices, which would be negative for travel patterns. However, the impact is usually temporary as traffic volume typically normalises within 4-6 months. The impact is minimal for toll revenue and net profit.
Valuation and recommendation
Oil prices have been on a relatively steep uptrend since the trough of the global financial crisis and have gone up even more recently on concern over the impact of the political uprisings on oil production. It is difficult to tell how long the unrest in the MENA region will persist and how widespread it will be. Rising oil prices are both a boon and bane for Malaysia. Although it is still a net oil exporter and will gain from higher prices, petrol and gas subsidies could increase and cause more distortions for the economy. Also, higher oil prices are negative for heavyweights in the airlines, shipping and power sectors and more than offset the gains for the oil & gas and plantation companies. Furthermore, many other sectors would be negatively affected by higher transportation and energy costs.
Although it is too early to draw parallels between this round of oil price increases and that of 2008, the trend is nonetheless worrying and we have to keep a close eye on this as oil price’s continued rise could increase the risk of a double-dip for the developed economies. Malaysia is fortunate as it is still a net oil exporter and the ETP should provide some insulation against external pressures. We maintain our OVERWEIGHT on Malaysia and KLCI target of 1,700 points as it is better placed to withstand the impact of rising oil prices on the economy and corporate earnings than other non-oil producing countries. Potential re-rating catalysts continue to be 1) the country’s transformation programmes, and 2) the positive impact of several upcoming elections.
Source/转贴/Extract/:CIMB Research
Publish date:24/02/11
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