Saturday, October 23, 2010

First Ship Lease Trust-3QF10 Result

Update of the vessels deployed in the product tanker spot market
The vessels ‘FSL Singapore’ (formerly ‘Verona I’) and ‘FSL Hamburg’ (formerly ‘Nika I’) were redelivered to the Trust at the request of their charterers and consequently, the bareboat charter agreements associated with these two vessels were terminated prematurely. FSLTM plans to trade the two vessels in the product tanker spot market in the near-term, with a view to placing them under longer term charters when attractive opportunities arise.

Following the release of the vessels from their recent arrests3, ‘FSL Singapore’ commenced trading in the product tanker spot market in the 4th week of June and ‘FSL Hamburg’ commenced trading in mid-August after completion of its dry-docking. The dry-docking for ‘FSL Singapore’ is currently scheduled for November 2010. Both vessels are managed by commercial manager,
UPT United Product Tankers GmbH & Co. KG, and technical manager, Prisco (Singapore) Pte. Ltd.

The two vessels earned total freight revenues of US$2.5 million during 3Q FY10. During this period, the vessels incurred voyage expenses (mainly bunkers and port charges) of US$0.9 million and vessel operating expenses of US$1.2 million. For 3Q FY10, the bareboat charter equivalent revenue generated by these vessels amounted to US$0.4 million.

With respect to the Writ of Summons filed against Daxin Petroleum Pte Ltd, its affiliates and their officers and/or representatives (the “Defendants”) 5 , the Defendants have filed their defence. Legal proceedings are on-going and there are no material developments at this point.

Outlook and Prospects
During Q3 2010, the two product tankers, ‘FSL Hamburg’ and ‘FSL Singapore’, were
successfully introduced to the product tanker spot market and gained approvals from
several oil majors. Despite volatile freight rates in the spot market, the Trustee-
Manager believes the vessels are now well-positioned to attain their full earnings
potential. As the tanker market improves, the Trustee-Manager will also explore
various mid-to-long-term employment options for these two vessels.

With regard to the other 21 vessels, FSL Trust continues to generate stable cashflow
from its bareboat lease portfolio, which is underpinned by long-term fixed-rate
bareboat contracts and healthy remaining contracted revenue.

Pacific Shipping Trust -3QF10 Result

Deposit for New Vessels

Friday, October 22, 2010

DBSV: Pacific Shipping Trust (BUY Target US$0.39)

Growth, diversification plans on track
BUY US$0.34
Price Target : US$ 0.39 (Prev. US$0.37)

At a Glance
• 3Q10 DPU of 0.83UScts in line with our expectations
• Existing cash flows look stable, diversification and growth plans remain on track with recent acquisition of 2 Multi Purpose Carriers for delivery in late 2012
• Trading at about 11% FY11 yield, maintain our BUY call at higher TP of US$0.39 (9% target yield on FY11 DPU)

Comment on Results
DPU of 0.83UScts was declared for the quarter, which is 5% higher than 2Q10 DPU but similar to the payout in 3Q09, when PST first started conserving 30% of distributable cash. 3Q10 revenue of US$15.6m held steady, and net profit was up 9% q-o-q to US$7.2m. After regular loan amortisation payment of US$4.3m, net cash generated for 3Q10 amounted to US$7.0m, of which approximately US$4.9m will be distributed to unitholders and the remaining US$2.1m retained for future working capital purposes.

Outlook & Recommendation
Following its earlier plans to acquire two new capesized bulk carriers for delivery in Sep 2011, PST has announced further growth plans and diversification into MPP vessels, with an order for 2 vessels worth US$60m for delivery in Sep/Dec 2012. The vessels will be chartered out for 10 years to COSCO Xiamen, a subsidiary of the COSCO Group. Pre-delivery payments for these ships will be supported by advances from sponsor PIL, and hence financing requirements will be back-loaded. To recap, the payment schedule for the bulk carriers are back-loaded as well, with 85% to be paid on delivery. Thus, while there is no immediate DPU accretion, there are no immediate funding needs as well.

Management is content to wait for better financing deals as they believe the market for ship financing is improving (it is possible to obtain more than 60% Loan-to-Value currently). Given the current cash buffer, we thus push back our equity fund raising assumptions to 2012, as we believe at least the bulk carrier deal can potentially be financed without raising additional equity. Maintain BUY, TP revised up to US$0.39, as we roll over valuations to FY11.

Saizen REIT : Divestment of Kamei Five

YK Shintoku has, on 21 October 2010, entered into a conditional sale and purchase agreement for the divestment of Kamei Five (“KF”) to an independent private investor (the “KF Buyer”) for a cash consideration of JPY 70,401,250 (S$1.1 million1) (the “KF Sale Price”).

Loan balance
The original balance of the YK Shintoku Loan was JPY 7.953 billion (S$127.9 million). The application of (i) net sale proceeds totaling JPY 1.9 billion (S$30.5 million) from the divestments of 14 properties of YK Shintoku and (ii) operational cash flow of YK Shintoku of JPY 0.2 billion (S$3.2 million) towards loan repayment had reduced the balance of the YK Shintoku Loan to JPY 5.9 billion (S$94.9 million) as at the date hereof. Following loan repayment from sale proceeds of the Current Divestments, the remaining balance of the YK Shintoku Loan is estimated to be approximately JPY 5.2 billon (S$83.6 million).

Taking into account applicable cash reserves of JPY 0.6 billion (S$9.6 million) maintained by YK Shintoku under the loan agreement, the net outstanding loan of YK Shintoku amounts to approximately JPY 4.6 billion (S$74.0 million).

Thursday, October 21, 2010

DMG: Cambridge Industrial Trust

Cambridge Industrial Trust 3Q profit marginally below expectations (SGXnet)
The news: CREIT reported 3Q10 DPU of 1.187¢ (-11.7% YoY; -4.1% QoQ). 9M10 annualised DPU came in at 4.93¢, marginally below our forecast of 5.05¢.

Our thoughts: The YoY decline in DPU is predominantly due to a reduction in rental revenue arising from the disposal of 15 strata units at 48 Toh Guan Road East. This is part of its broader plans to reduce its leverage to 37% by end-2010. In 3Q10, CREIT acquired new assets worth S$37m, supported by a S$40m private placement in August.

According to management, there are three AEIs in the pipeline which are expected to yield between 10-16%. A number of leases have also been re-structured to facilitate these AEIs, which, in turn, will enable CREIT to maximise the properties' plot ratios, and enhance capital values. CREIT will trade ex-3Q10 distribution on 26 October. Maintain BUY, DDM-based TP of S$0.62.

Wednesday, October 20, 2010

CIMB: Berlian Laju Tanker Still undervalued

• Berlian Laju’s share price has done well of late, rising more than 71% over the past one
month. This morning, active trading lifted its price +20% higher on a volume of 101m shares traded; trading volume was second only to the newly-listed Global Logistic Trust.

• Still undervalued. Despite the 20% spike in its share price, BLTA is only trading at 0.6x P/BV, a discount to its peer average of 0.8x P/BV.

• Near term catalyst. BLTA managed a turnaround with a small core net profit of US$1.1m in 2Q10. We expect BLTA’s earnings to be boosted by strong investment income in the second half of this year. We think that the jump in its share price could be due to anticipation of a positive 3Q10 result, which will be released in the next few weeks.

• Recommendation: Outperform with target price of S$0.095 (58% upside to go).











DXN Share buy back

Tuesday, October 19, 2010

IGB Prospects for higher dividends & unlocking of asset value?

IGB Corporation
Prospects for higher dividends & unlocking of asset value?
Price: M$1.96
Price Target: M$2.90

• Prospects for increased dividends. With capex commitments for 'The Gardens’ expansion over and strong finances (FY10E net gearing: 7%), IGB is mulling over the prospect of higher dividends. Total capex budget for the next two years is M$300-350MM for expansion of Mid Valley Phase 3 (0.65MM sqft of retail and office space), and a new Cititel hotel in Penang. FCF hence is estimated at M$170-220MM pa over FY10-12E, translating to FCF yield of 5.8-7.5% vs our forecast net dividend yield of 2.2% (30-40% pay-out).

• Growth drivers. Property investment and hotels will continue to be the major contributor, with property development at no more than 10% of profits. Since Jan-10, retail sales Y/Y have risen 5% at the Mid Valley mall, but a stronger 15% for the newer Gardens mall due to the low base and economic slowdown last year. Rentals are now at M$10.30psf for Mid Valley mall (+5% Y/Y), and M$9.70psf for Gardens mall (+4% Y/Y), but the mid term target is to price Gardens 15-20% higher given its premium status. We expect improving occupancies for its newer Gardens office towers currently at 79% (vs 90-100% for its more established retail/office assets) and Gardens hotels at 54% currently (vs 80-90% for the Boulevard and Cititel). Its new 0.65MM sqft of commercial space under the Phase 3 expansion is expected to contribute from mid-2013.

• Potential mid-term catalyst. Plans for a REIT seem unlikely for now though IGB may consider injecting its newer Gardens assets as they mature into listed Kris Assets. This could also unlock value as we saw in 2004/05 when IGB injected Mid-Valley mall into Kris at market value (vs at book on its balance sheet) for cash and shares in Kris, which resulted in a gain of over M$800MM.

• Maintain OW. IGB shares have started to play catch up, outperforming 6% the past month. Its steady outlook and 1x P/B (non-revalued) should provide support, while efforts to raise dividends or unlock value could see the shares rerate, in our view. IGB trades at a 39% discount to RNAV vs the regional Asian average of 26% for property investors. However, IJM Land remains our top property pick.

Price target and valuation analysis
Our Dec-10 PT of M$2.90 is based on a 10% discount to our RNAV of M$3.20/share.

IGB is engaged in property development, property investment, and hotels which accounted for 17%, 61% and 22% of its profits respectively in FY09. IGB underwent a corporate exercise in 2004-05 to unlock value of its Mid Valley City (MVC) retail mall - Phase 1, which was injected into 75%- owned listed entity, Kris Assets Holdings. IGB’s M$1.3B expansion of its commercial assets under the ‘Gardens' project/brand-name came onstream gradually since Sept-07, and has raised the total net lettable area (NLA) of its office and retail space from 2.65MM to 4.85MM sqft.

Key risks to our PT include execution and potential pricey acquisitions in relation to the Group’s plans to expand its hotel franchise or operations overseas. IGB recently expanded its hotel operations in Manila (via 49% associate under the ‘St Giles’ brand name), and is also exploring the Thailand market which will be under its ‘Cititel’ brandname and will likely be majority owned. Management however has a prudent track record which we believe will minimize pricing risk. The group already operates hotels in London and Vietnam, and hence is not new to operating overseas in this segment.

Source/转贴/Extract/Excerpts: J.P. Morgan
Publish date:19/10/10

HLG:The local bourse is undergoing a healthy correction

The local bourse is undergoing a healthy correction

 As expected, the FBM KLCI continued its southbound journey after registering a negative cross of 5-d SMA below the 10-d SMA, and closed below these two levels.

 Unless the FBM KLCI is able to come back above the 10-d SMA today, the index could see more volatility in the next 2- 3 days, given the weak technical readings. Immediate resistance levels remain at 1500-1525 pts whilst supports are situated at 1468 (30-d SMA) and 1455 (40-d SMA).

HLG: DXN delivered a promising 1HFY11 results

Highlights of 2QFY11 results (refer to results review table)
 1HFY11 net earnings grew 57% yoy to RM22.4m on the back of a 9.3% jump in sales and improvement in margins.

 Turned from net debt position of RM48m in 1HFY10 to net cash position of RM3.3m currently.

 2QFY11 net profit also rose 23.5% qoq and 35.1% yoy to RM12.4m.

 Quarterly dividend payout also rose to 2.75 sen in 2QFY11 vs 2 sen in 1QFY11 and 1sen in 2QFY10.

 2QFY11 net cash position remained at RM3.3m vs RM17.4 netdebt in 1QFY11 and RM41.8m netdebt in 2QFY10.

 Management guided a relatively strong 2HFY11 to achieve another record high in topline, bottomline and dividend payment.

Poised to march towards RM1.70- 1.80 territory in the medium term after a brief consolidation
 From a low of 50sen in Sep 09, DXN shares have gained 184% to an all-time high of RM1.42 on 18 Oct 10. Downside is cushioned further by the 20-d SMA of RM1.25, followed by the 30-day SMA of RM1.14, which is also the 2/3 speed resistance line.

 The medium term technical outlook is positive after undergoing a brief consolidation owing to its overbought position. Looking ahead, a decisive breakout above the
RM1.42 all-time high backed by strong buying momentum will accelerate gains and extend up-trend parallel to the rising 2/3 Speed Resistance Line (SRL), with upside target at the RM1.70-1.80 region.

BUY ON WEAKNESS, with a 3M PT of RM1.70
 We like DXN for: (1) its current business structure of controlling and effectively managing both the upstream and downstream parts of the supply chain; (2) its strong foothold in the international markets and its headstart in global expansion; and (3) stable and strong financial position, sound management and attractive dividend yield.

 BUY ON WEAKNESS amid overbought technical readings, with a 3-month technical target of RM1.70 (upgraded from RM1.36), implying a 9.2x P/E (peers: 12.8x) on 18.5sen FY11 EPS.

 We see our cut loss point at RM1.14.

Saizen REIT – Key Financial Information

Saizen REIT – Outlook for FY2011

Resumption of distribution
• FY2010 distribution of 0.26 cents per Unit, in respect of 2 months’ cash flow
• Distribution represents operational cash generated from 8 “healthy” subsidiaries (ie. excluding cash flow of YK Shintoku)
• Distribution of cash generated from “healthy” part of the REIT is expected to continue

Property operations and portfolio value
• Property operations has been stable and is expected to remain stable
• Average occupancy rate of 91.7% in FY2010
• Tenant turnover improved from 22% in FY2009 to 20% in FY2010
• Overall rental reversions of contracts entered into during FY2010 were at rental rates which were marginally lower (by 4.3%) than previous rates
• Portfolio value remained stable compared with June 2009

Outlook for FY2011
• Property operations expected to remain stable
• Continue to seek refinancing for loan of YK Shintoku
• Only loan to mature in FY2011 will be repaid using internal cash resources or be refinanced
• Explore divestment of existing properties and new acquisitions rebalancing of portfolio with, especially in the Tokyo region, to enhance quality and growth potential of property portfolio

Saizen REIT – Overview

Real Estate Assets & Loans

• Saizen REIT can be viewed in two parts:
_ “Healthy” part accounts for about 79% of Group assets and 91% of Group NAV
_ Defaulted part accounts for about 21% of Group assets and 9% of Group NAV
_ Cash flow from “Healthy” part is freely distributable to investors
_ If the YK Shintoku loan issue is resolved, this represents a “bonus” to investors

YK Shintoku loan
• Maturity default in November 2009
• Commenced discussions with financial institutions on potential refinancing of loan; any refinancing has to be on reasonable terms
• Unencumbered properties of JPY 12 billion available as collateral for new loans
• No indication of foreclosure actions to-date
• Asset manager continues to work closely with the loan servicer (including divestments)

YK Shintoku loan – Current loan balance

• Partial and progressive divestment of YK Shintoku properties to
facilitate refinancing of YK Shintoku’s loan
• Divested 5 properties in FY2010 and a further 9 properties in FY2011 to-date
• Total sale price JPY 1,953.5 million 12
• Sale prices were at a weighted average discount of 4% to valuation
• Assets proven to be liquid even at depth of crisis


As at 30 June 2010, the Group had six outstanding loans which were borrowed through separate TK operators of Saizen REIT. With the exception of the loan of GK Choan, where the property portfolios of GK Choan and YK Kokkei are used as security for the loan, each of the other loans is not cross-collateralised against any other TK operators and properties under each TK operator’s portfolio are used as security for the respective loans. All the TK operators’ loans have no recourse towards
Saizen REIT.

Other than the loan of YK Shintoku, the other five loans have varying amounts of amortisation over their respective tenors. Amortisation payments on existing loans amount to an aggregate of about JPY 390 million per annum. The following table sets out the loans obtained by the TK operators of Saizen REIT.

蘋果日報 - 20101020 - 股神:當年買巴郡最老襯衝動掃貨 賺少萬六億

Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:19/10/2010

Monday, October 18, 2010


DXN 2QF11 Result

Price @ 18/10/10 RM1.36
PE = 7 times
Div yield = 6.99%
P/B = 1.48 times
Market Cap = RM327m

Target 10 times PE = RM1.94

MIDF: Direction of the market after the Budget should bear more consequence

• As expected, the 2011 Budget was a non-factor as far as the FBM KLCI is concerned. The marginal 0.57% gain last week was the worst Budget week performance in more than 5 years (see table). Please
refer to our Budget 2011 report for commentaries on the Budget.

• The direction of the market after the Budget should bear more consequence. History suggests that the market tends to retreat the week following the market. The KLCI always ended lower in the week following the Budget. This is true in the last 5 years as the market had declined -0.25% to -2.72% in the week.

• UMNO’s general assembly will be held from 19 October to 23 October. This is also expected to be non-consequential as far as the market is concerned as “UMNO-theme” stocks have not attracted play in the past few years. The assembly could be debating the Budget and the Transformation Programme, and the market could be wary of the rhetorics.

• On this basis, we expect the FBM KLCI to be lacklustre next week. The KLCI broke 1500 last week to hit year’s high of 1503.82 on relatively strong volume. Volume had exceeded 1b daily for 6 consecutive trading days until last Friday. Technically, the market is retreating from an earlier overbought position. It is normal for the market to take a pause after testing year’s high.

HLG: Muted impact from the budget

The impact of budget 2011 will be neutral in the immediate term as much of the news has been discounted. However, awards of contracts may sustain investors’ interest in the construction and property sectors.

Although the market could trend higher by the end of the year, in reaction to the strengthening Ringgit (vs US$),
possible year-end window dressing activities and market expectation of an early election, the deteriorating technical indicators and the negative crossing of 5-d SMA below the 10-d SMA could reinforce more profit taking selling pressures to the market in the short term. Immediate resistance levels remain at 1500-1525 pts whilst supports are situated at 1465 (30-d SMA) and 1450 (40-d SMA).

For Dow, investors will turn their attention to the tsunami of corporate earnings and key economic figures (please refer to table). Immediate resistance level is 52-week high of 11308 while immediate support levels are 10990 (10-d SMA), 10890 (20-d SMA) and 10756 (30-d SMA).

CIMB: STI comes up against resistance.

The STI is facing some selling pressure at its resistance trend lines. However, as long as the uptrend channel support trend line currently at 3,150 holds, the uptrend is intact. The next support trend line is at 3,060 while the other near-term support level is the 21-day SMA

CIMB: Signs of negative divergence for KLCI.

The KLCI is holding just above its immediate support trend line at 1,489pts. The daily technical indicators are showing signs of negative divergence, which could mean that the uptrend may be ending soon. The next support is the 21-day SMA at 1,473. If this gave way, it could mean consolidation ahead.

HwangDBS: Technical Review

Technically speaking, interesting times could be in store for the FBM KLCI. It is now eyeing to clear the immediate resistance hurdle of 1,495. Following which, the benchmark index is expected to advance further towards 1,525. An eventual breakout beyond this threshold – which is also where its lifetime peak of 1,525 stood at back in mid-Jan 08 – will then propel the FBM KLCI to greater heights, hence extending its 19- month bull run.

Any intermittent pullback, nevertheless, remains probable at this moment given that the bellwether has already risen in 16 of the last 20 weeks (translating to a cumulative gain of 220.7-point or 17.4%). If so, then we have drawn our support lines at 1,465 (first) and 1,435 (second) to cushion the downward movements. From a recent high of 1,503.82, they represent a downside measurement of 2.6% and 4.6%, respectively.

RHB: 2011 FBM KLCI target remains unchanged at 1,640

Setting the pace towards transformation
- There was no substantial new information that will likely excite equity investors in the immediate term, in our view. Consequently, our views on the market outlook, earnings and sector calls remain relatively unchanged.

- Nevertheless, we believe the news flow will likely come after the Budget speech, now that the timelines for the major projects have been set and are mostly expected to begin in 2011. This suggests that the groundwork will accelerate from here on and we believe this will maintain the positive flow of news to the construction sector and, to a lesser extent, the property sector.

- Whilst market valuations are no longer cheap, influx of G3 liquidity to Emerging Asia's equity, bond and currency markets in search of higher returns could still send the market higher in the near term, in our view.

- Longer term, we believe there is still room for the market to trend higher in 2011. This is primarily predicated on the view the global economy is more sustainable than feared, which in turn implies sustained corporate earnings growth (+12.8% projected for 2011) that will continue to create new shareholders' value for investors. Consequently, our end-2011 FBM KLCI target remains unchanged at 1,640, based on 15x mid-cycle 2012 earnings. This, however, will not be without volatility as the global economy enters into a period of slowing growth in an uneven phase of recovery.

RHB: Key Supportive Level Is Near The 10-day SMA...

♦ The FBM KLCI accumulated another negative candle, as profit-taking activities intensified on Friday.

♦ Coupled with a further downtick on the short-term momentum indicators, the index is likely to undergo follow-through profit-taking leg today, in our view.

♦ This means the benchmark could ease further towards the 10-day SMA of 1,483 in the early part of this week.

♦ But as we reiterated earlier, as long as the index can sustain at above the medium-term support level of 1,450 and the 10-day SMA, our outlook on the current uptrend will remain firmly positive.

♦ On the upside, it needs to retake the 1,500 psychological level to restore its bullish momentum.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
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