根據過去8次大選，有6次在大選前6個月，股市掀起漲潮，只有兩次出現下跌的情況。
僑豐研究認為，預料大選帶來強勁基礎建設消息，市場正面情緒將可延燒至2011年，雖然短期股市潛在溫和調整風險，但無損明年馬股走勢正面前景
分析員相信可能與全國大選考量有關，不排除大選提早明年，基於大選漲潮，預料馬股明年可沖破1600點
Source: sinchew.com.my
Friday, October 15, 2010
大選明年舉行？馬股或有選前漲潮
8屆大選有6次股市漲潮
根據過去8次大選，有6次在大選前6個月，股市掀起漲潮，只有兩次出現下跌的情況。
僑豐研究認為，預料大選帶來強勁基礎建設消息，市場正面情緒將可延燒至2011年，雖然短期股市潛在溫和調整風險，但無損明年馬股走勢正面前景
分析員相信可能與全國大選考量有關，不排除大選提早明年，基於大選漲潮，預料馬股明年可沖破1600點
Source: sinchew.com.my
根據過去8次大選，有6次在大選前6個月，股市掀起漲潮，只有兩次出現下跌的情況。
僑豐研究認為，預料大選帶來強勁基礎建設消息，市場正面情緒將可延燒至2011年，雖然短期股市潛在溫和調整風險，但無損明年馬股走勢正面前景
分析員相信可能與全國大選考量有關，不排除大選提早明年，基於大選漲潮，預料馬股明年可沖破1600點
Source: sinchew.com.my
Courage Marine mulls to relaunch IPO in HK
Taiwan-based Courage Marine Chairman Hsu Chih-Chien said the firm will not exclude the possibility for a secondary listing in Hong Kong with a suitable investment environment.
Hsu said the investment environment in Hong Kong is now fairly suitable for developments of the shipping industry and has potentials to compete with Singapore.
Hsu believed Hong Kong's edge rests on its convenient tax policies, capital flows and entry and exit as well as proximity to the mainland market. (HL)
Source: www.etnet.com.hk
Hsu said the investment environment in Hong Kong is now fairly suitable for developments of the shipping industry and has potentials to compete with Singapore.
Hsu believed Hong Kong's edge rests on its convenient tax policies, capital flows and entry and exit as well as proximity to the mainland market. (HL)
Source: www.etnet.com.hk
Courage Marine Group Limited-Chairman's Message
Chairman's Message
(Extracted from Annual Report 2009)
DEAR SHAREHOLDERS,
Following 2008's financial tsunami, 2009 emerged as a year filled with economic uncertainties. The crisis triggered the worst post-war contraction, dampened global trade and created challenging circumstances for shipping firms worldwide.
Amidst the difficult operating environment, Courage Marine has displayed strength and resilience this financial year. Through a cost-effective structure and a firm focus on maintaining a well-deployed, efficient fleet, the Group has managed to stay profitable in the financial year ended 31 December 2009 ("FY2009").
Riding through an uncertain economy
In 2009, the Group recorded revenue of US$27.9 million, reflecting a decline of 63% from the previous financial year. Net profit was significantly reduced to US$75,000 due to low freight rates and reduced fleet utilisation in FY2009.
The lower fleet utilisation was largely due to the volatility of the Baltic Dry Index ("BDI"). After falling under 900 points at the beginning of the year, it had fluctuated before hitting a year-high of 4,635 points in November 2009. Although the fluctuations were less tumultuous compared to its unpredictability in late 2008, it nevertheless affected the freight rates and demand for dry bulk shipping, posing numerous challenges for the Company throughout the year.
At the start of the year, the BDI clearly mirrored the bleak state of the economy as markets worldwide continued to suffer from the after-effects of the financial crisis. After showing subtle signs of recovery, the BDI rose substantially in June 2009 to hit its 10-month high since October 2008, at a level of 4,291 points. This was due to the increasing demand from China's steelmakers for iron ore and coal - raw materials necessary in the production of steel.
This surge however, was not sustained and in October 2009, another sizeable fall of the BDI was witnessed - this time down to a level of 2,100 points. The volatility continued as BDI levels subsequently ascended to its 2009-high of 4,635 points in November, concluding a year of erratic highs and lows. These factors negatively affected the operating environment for the shipping industry, thereby lowering fleet utilisation to 70%.
Upholding excellence
This year, the Group was once again rated as one of the world's Top 10 public shipping companies by Marine Money International - a prestigious ship finance publication - in terms of overall performance. This industry-acclaimed award is strong testament to the Group's consistent ability to exhibit financial prudence and maximise returns, in spite of a weak dry bulk freight market.
The Group also came out tops in terms of debt interest coverage ratio, illustrating our ability to generate enough cash to repay debt liabilities. Through effective cost management strategy and prudent expansion policy, the Group has also attained third placing for return on assets. Our strong showing in these areas is reflective of the Group's excellent financial health.
These accolades demonstrate the Group's commitment to operational efficiency and shareholder value creation. We believe that with consistent perseverance and careful cost management, we will continue building on our reputation as a leading player in the regional dry bulk market.
Boosting our capabilities
In 2010, the Group added a new vessel to the fleet, thereby increasing the Group's shipping capacity by over 32% or 128,150 dwt. At a cost of US$7.85 million, MV Cape Ore's larger tonnage will bring greater cost efficiency to the Group's operations. This enhancement to the fleet amidst difficult times is an indication of our strong financial position and our strategy to prepare for the next phase of growth.
Dividends
The Directors recommend a final dividend of US (cents) 0.472 per ordinary share, amounting to approximately US$5 million to be paid in respect of the financial year ended 31 December 2009, subject to shareholders' approval at the forthcoming annual general meeting of the Company.
Acknowledgements
On behalf of the Board, I would like to thank our shareholders, management, staff, business associates and clients for their steadfast support and dedication to the Group. Your commitment and confidence in the Group will enable us to make bigger strides towards greater value in the coming year.
(Extracted from Annual Report 2009)
DEAR SHAREHOLDERS,
Following 2008's financial tsunami, 2009 emerged as a year filled with economic uncertainties. The crisis triggered the worst post-war contraction, dampened global trade and created challenging circumstances for shipping firms worldwide.
Amidst the difficult operating environment, Courage Marine has displayed strength and resilience this financial year. Through a cost-effective structure and a firm focus on maintaining a well-deployed, efficient fleet, the Group has managed to stay profitable in the financial year ended 31 December 2009 ("FY2009").
Riding through an uncertain economy
In 2009, the Group recorded revenue of US$27.9 million, reflecting a decline of 63% from the previous financial year. Net profit was significantly reduced to US$75,000 due to low freight rates and reduced fleet utilisation in FY2009.
The lower fleet utilisation was largely due to the volatility of the Baltic Dry Index ("BDI"). After falling under 900 points at the beginning of the year, it had fluctuated before hitting a year-high of 4,635 points in November 2009. Although the fluctuations were less tumultuous compared to its unpredictability in late 2008, it nevertheless affected the freight rates and demand for dry bulk shipping, posing numerous challenges for the Company throughout the year.
At the start of the year, the BDI clearly mirrored the bleak state of the economy as markets worldwide continued to suffer from the after-effects of the financial crisis. After showing subtle signs of recovery, the BDI rose substantially in June 2009 to hit its 10-month high since October 2008, at a level of 4,291 points. This was due to the increasing demand from China's steelmakers for iron ore and coal - raw materials necessary in the production of steel.
This surge however, was not sustained and in October 2009, another sizeable fall of the BDI was witnessed - this time down to a level of 2,100 points. The volatility continued as BDI levels subsequently ascended to its 2009-high of 4,635 points in November, concluding a year of erratic highs and lows. These factors negatively affected the operating environment for the shipping industry, thereby lowering fleet utilisation to 70%.
Upholding excellence
This year, the Group was once again rated as one of the world's Top 10 public shipping companies by Marine Money International - a prestigious ship finance publication - in terms of overall performance. This industry-acclaimed award is strong testament to the Group's consistent ability to exhibit financial prudence and maximise returns, in spite of a weak dry bulk freight market.
The Group also came out tops in terms of debt interest coverage ratio, illustrating our ability to generate enough cash to repay debt liabilities. Through effective cost management strategy and prudent expansion policy, the Group has also attained third placing for return on assets. Our strong showing in these areas is reflective of the Group's excellent financial health.
These accolades demonstrate the Group's commitment to operational efficiency and shareholder value creation. We believe that with consistent perseverance and careful cost management, we will continue building on our reputation as a leading player in the regional dry bulk market.
Boosting our capabilities
In 2010, the Group added a new vessel to the fleet, thereby increasing the Group's shipping capacity by over 32% or 128,150 dwt. At a cost of US$7.85 million, MV Cape Ore's larger tonnage will bring greater cost efficiency to the Group's operations. This enhancement to the fleet amidst difficult times is an indication of our strong financial position and our strategy to prepare for the next phase of growth.
Dividends
The Directors recommend a final dividend of US (cents) 0.472 per ordinary share, amounting to approximately US$5 million to be paid in respect of the financial year ended 31 December 2009, subject to shareholders' approval at the forthcoming annual general meeting of the Company.
Acknowledgements
On behalf of the Board, I would like to thank our shareholders, management, staff, business associates and clients for their steadfast support and dedication to the Group. Your commitment and confidence in the Group will enable us to make bigger strides towards greater value in the coming year.
Courage Marine Group Limited-Profile
Courage Marine Group Limited
Profile
Courage Marine Group Limited is a Bermuda registered shipping company engaged in the ownership and operation of bulk carriers, with an optimized combination of Capesize, Panamax and Handysize vessels (the “Fleet”).
Through our Operation Offices in Hong Kong and Taipei , our Fleet provides marine transportation services and logistical support to our customers, carrying bulk commodities such as cement wood chips, coal, iron ore and minerals. The Company owns nine (9) dry bulk carriers, including one (1) Capesize carrier of 146,351 deadweight tons (“dwt”), four (4) Panamax vessels of above 66,000 dwt, and four (4) Handysize carriers between 25,000 and 50,000 dwt. The total tonnage of these vessels is approximately 576,991 dwt. Handysize vessels have the advantage of being flexible whereas Capesize and Panamax vessels provide efficiency with their larger capacity. The combination of Capesize, Panamax and Handysize vessels means that we are able to cope with customers' needs in a flexible and efficient manner, thereby ensuring higher utilization of the vessels in our Fleet and optimizing return of investment on the vessels. The Fleet operates mainly in Asian waters, including China , Taiwan , and elsewhere in Asia . The Company in turn controls the time per voyage per vessel.
The streamlined manner in which we operate the Fleet enables us to provide customers with a safe and reliable service with a high degree of operational flexibility, and also improves our results through stronger revenues, reduced operating expenses and lower insurance and finance costs.
Most senior members of our management team have over 20 years of experience in various areas of the dry bulk shipping industry, including marketing and sales, market analysis, chartering, vessel operations, technical management and crewing, vessel sale and purchase, shipbuilding and repair, finance and insurance.
We see an attractive demand and supply fundamental in this industry sector and seek to continue to expand our business by leveraging our operating platform. Our areas of strength include specialized operational skills, long-standing industry relationships, increasing scale and sophistication of operation, as well as strategic concentration in the Asia Pacific region. We will continue to offer our customers competitive prices and reliable services.
Since 1994, the Chinese economy has consistently achieved an average annual real GDP growth rate of nearly 9%, driving total imports into China from US$115 billion in 1994 to US$413 billion in 2003. Even though the Chinese government implemented macroeconomic policies in the first quarter of 2004 in an attempt to cool down the overheated economy, there continued to be growth in our market share and demand for our services. We believe our substantial presence in the regional shipping market will enable us to capitalize on the continued economic growth in China and the Asia Pacific region. We also expect our market position to be enhanced by a supply constraint of the world's fleet of Handysize and Panamax vessels, and the limited shipyard capacity available to build new vessels, at least in the near term.
Source:company
IATA: Rebound in international air travel is slowing
According to International Air Transport Association (Iata), there are clear signs now that the post-recession rebound in international air travel is slowing, especially in the premium seat segment. Premium traffic in August rose 9.1% yoy, compared with 13.8% in July. And economy traffic was up 6.2% in August, compared with 8.8% in July. Iata said most of the recovery in air travel occurred earlier this year, with growth starting to flatten during the past few months.
Technical Review - apex
Closing 14-10-2010: 1496.38
Support: (S1) 1470 / (S2) 1430
Resistance: (R1) 1500 / (R2) 1525
Comments: The FBM KLCI lost 0.59 points to at 1496.38 yesterday after surging to an intra-day high of 1504 in early trade. The total market volume climbed further to 1.27 billion units from 1.20 billion units previously.
Technical indicators were slightly positive as the RSI entered the overbought region while the MACD cut its signal line from below to generate a positive signal. The index’s long term uptrend since May remains intact and further direction could be influenced by the Budget announcement later today. If the index is able to hit and hold above the 1500 level, we can expect a new high for the index by end of the year. For the downside, the immediate support level is pegged at 1470 followed by 1430.
Support: (S1) 1470 / (S2) 1430
Resistance: (R1) 1500 / (R2) 1525
Comments: The FBM KLCI lost 0.59 points to at 1496.38 yesterday after surging to an intra-day high of 1504 in early trade. The total market volume climbed further to 1.27 billion units from 1.20 billion units previously.
Technical indicators were slightly positive as the RSI entered the overbought region while the MACD cut its signal line from below to generate a positive signal. The index’s long term uptrend since May remains intact and further direction could be influenced by the Budget announcement later today. If the index is able to hit and hold above the 1500 level, we can expect a new high for the index by end of the year. For the downside, the immediate support level is pegged at 1470 followed by 1430.
CIMB: MAS getting ready for “currency war”?
The market was expecting the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) to stick to its policy of a modest and gradual appreciation of its S$ nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) band, on the same day the flash data are released. While the MAS did maintain its policy, it surprised the market by announcing the band will now be widened slightly with the slope increased slightly. No change to the level at which the band is centred.
• Allowing the S$ to be stronger is perhaps an acknowledgment that if the largest economy in the world, the US, is going to pump more money into its economy, the US$, the de-factor currency of the world, may continue to weaken against the currencies of its key trading partners. Being a traded-weighted currency, the S$ probably cannot escape a further rise against the US$.
• The unexpected widening of the band is perhaps the MAS’s proactive management amid talks of “currency wars” and the war of words with China over the Rmb. The last time the MAS widened its band was during another “war-like” episode in Sep 01, in the aftermath of 911 when the policy band was widened to accommodate very volatile market conditions. The current widening of the band is expected to be temporary, to be reviewed when greater stability returns to forex markets (or in Apr 11 when the MAS issues its next policy update?).
• Allowing the S$ to be stronger is perhaps an acknowledgment that if the largest economy in the world, the US, is going to pump more money into its economy, the US$, the de-factor currency of the world, may continue to weaken against the currencies of its key trading partners. Being a traded-weighted currency, the S$ probably cannot escape a further rise against the US$.
• The unexpected widening of the band is perhaps the MAS’s proactive management amid talks of “currency wars” and the war of words with China over the Rmb. The last time the MAS widened its band was during another “war-like” episode in Sep 01, in the aftermath of 911 when the policy band was widened to accommodate very volatile market conditions. The current widening of the band is expected to be temporary, to be reviewed when greater stability returns to forex markets (or in Apr 11 when the MAS issues its next policy update?).
Thursday, October 14, 2010
SIAS: Pacific Shipping Trust
Pacific Shipping Trust
Invest Value: 0.339
Pre Close: 0.315
Another Pleasant Surprise
Update: On 11 October 2010, Pacific Shipping Trust (PST) announced that it has awarded the construction of two 24,000 DWT multi-purpose vessels to Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co., Ltd. Subsequently, these two vessels will be chartered out to Xiamen Ocean Shipping Company (Cosco Xiamen) for a period of up to 10 years.
Value Catalyst: The interest expenses incurred from this acquisition will not impact the near term quarterly figures significantly – we project quarterly expenses to be around US$250,000 to US$300,000. Thus, we are retaining our valuation of US$0.339 and will adjust following more disclosure on the financing portion.
Invest Value: 0.339
Pre Close: 0.315
Another Pleasant Surprise
Update: On 11 October 2010, Pacific Shipping Trust (PST) announced that it has awarded the construction of two 24,000 DWT multi-purpose vessels to Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co., Ltd. Subsequently, these two vessels will be chartered out to Xiamen Ocean Shipping Company (Cosco Xiamen) for a period of up to 10 years.
Value Catalyst: The interest expenses incurred from this acquisition will not impact the near term quarterly figures significantly – we project quarterly expenses to be around US$250,000 to US$300,000. Thus, we are retaining our valuation of US$0.339 and will adjust following more disclosure on the financing portion.
CIMB: Berlian Laju Tanker (BLTA SP; S$0.05)
• Impressive jump yesterday. This mid cap gem gained 22% from S$0.045 to S$0.055 yesterday on strong volume, earning its place on the Top 20 most traded chart as well as the Top Gainers chart.
• Still undervalued. In spite of the 22% jump, BLTA is still trading at 0.5x P/BV, a discount to its peer average of 0.8x P/BV.
• Near term catalyst. BLTA managed a turnaround with a small core net profit of US$1.1m in 2Q10. We expect BLTA’s earnings to be boosted by strong investment income in the second half of this year. A positive 3Q10 results release in the next few weeks could signify an end to BLTA’s woes and could give BLTA’s share price a near term boost, in our view.
• Recommendation: Outperform with target price of S$0.09.
• Technical BUY – Berlian Laju Tanker
• This stock has rebounded a tad after finding some buying support around the S$0.035 levels.
• Coupled with the bullish divergence on its MACD and RSI, we think that the rebound still has room on the upside.
• On the upside, prices could test the downtrend resistance at S$0.06. Just keep a stop below the S$0.035 low, just in case it is hit with another round of heavy selling. A breakout above the resistance trend line would likely lift prices further towards S$0.07 next.
• Still undervalued. In spite of the 22% jump, BLTA is still trading at 0.5x P/BV, a discount to its peer average of 0.8x P/BV.
• Near term catalyst. BLTA managed a turnaround with a small core net profit of US$1.1m in 2Q10. We expect BLTA’s earnings to be boosted by strong investment income in the second half of this year. A positive 3Q10 results release in the next few weeks could signify an end to BLTA’s woes and could give BLTA’s share price a near term boost, in our view.
• Recommendation: Outperform with target price of S$0.09.
• Technical BUY – Berlian Laju Tanker
• This stock has rebounded a tad after finding some buying support around the S$0.035 levels.
• Coupled with the bullish divergence on its MACD and RSI, we think that the rebound still has room on the upside.
• On the upside, prices could test the downtrend resistance at S$0.06. Just keep a stop below the S$0.035 low, just in case it is hit with another round of heavy selling. A breakout above the resistance trend line would likely lift prices further towards S$0.07 next.
HLG: Heading towards 1500-1525 resistance zones
FBM KLCI Outlook
For Bursa Malaysia, the ongoing positive Dow component results by Alcoa, Intel and JP Morgan coupled with
anticipation of more stimulus measures by Fed are expected to continue lift investors’ sentiment again.
The positive momentum is likely to push our index higher to test 1500-1525 pts in the short term, ahead of the the 2011 Budget (Oct 15) and ETP (Oct 26).
We maintain our bullish view but will turn cautious if the index closes below the 5-d SMA of 1490 and 10-d SMA of 1481pts. The next supports are situated at 1473 (20-d SMA) and 1464 (30-d SMA). A stronger resistance zones are 1,500 psychological mark and all-time high of 1525.
For Bursa Malaysia, the ongoing positive Dow component results by Alcoa, Intel and JP Morgan coupled with
anticipation of more stimulus measures by Fed are expected to continue lift investors’ sentiment again.
The positive momentum is likely to push our index higher to test 1500-1525 pts in the short term, ahead of the the 2011 Budget (Oct 15) and ETP (Oct 26).
We maintain our bullish view but will turn cautious if the index closes below the 5-d SMA of 1490 and 10-d SMA of 1481pts. The next supports are situated at 1473 (20-d SMA) and 1464 (30-d SMA). A stronger resistance zones are 1,500 psychological mark and all-time high of 1525.
RHB: Removing 1,500 by the end of this week…
Daily Trading Strategy :
- Impressively, the FBM KLCI shrugged off the pullback risk and made a strong turnaround yesterday to resume its bullish short-term rally.
- With a strong closing at a 33-month high and the upbeat technical indicators, we believe the FBM KLCI will break above the 1,500 psychological level by the end of this week.
- In fact, we expect the current upbeat sentiment to persist on regional markets’ strength, especially with some Asian markets hitting a new record high or a fresh year high on continuous foreign capital inflows recently.
- Moreover, ahead of the 2011 Budget announcement on Friday, speculations are bound to increase in the near term on selective sectors like the construction, services and property sectors, in our view.
- Coupled with a robust daily volume at above the 1.0bn shares mark of late, more investors are expected to return to the trading floors due to the increased risk appetite following the recent gains.
- Technically, upon the removal of 1,500, the benchmark will likely accelerate its upward momentum and head towards the all-time high level of 1,524.69 or higher soon.
- Impressively, the FBM KLCI shrugged off the pullback risk and made a strong turnaround yesterday to resume its bullish short-term rally.
- With a strong closing at a 33-month high and the upbeat technical indicators, we believe the FBM KLCI will break above the 1,500 psychological level by the end of this week.
- In fact, we expect the current upbeat sentiment to persist on regional markets’ strength, especially with some Asian markets hitting a new record high or a fresh year high on continuous foreign capital inflows recently.
- Moreover, ahead of the 2011 Budget announcement on Friday, speculations are bound to increase in the near term on selective sectors like the construction, services and property sectors, in our view.
- Coupled with a robust daily volume at above the 1.0bn shares mark of late, more investors are expected to return to the trading floors due to the increased risk appetite following the recent gains.
- Technically, upon the removal of 1,500, the benchmark will likely accelerate its upward momentum and head towards the all-time high level of 1,524.69 or higher soon.
Mercury: 1,500 Level, Here I Come ……
What was the chart saying …….
Market traded higher on 13/10/2010 despite the down close scenario in the preceding day (12/10/2010), what did it tell us ? Traders were still comfortable to establish stock positions, and they were not affected by the lower settlement on 12/10/2010.
The higher move on 13/10/2010 was a little surprise, because traders appeared to be choosing on sidelines when market could not inch higher than 1,494.10 on 12/10/2010. Thus, it must be the feeling of the 1,475 level crossover with an upside gap scenario on 6/10/2010 that continued to provide buying interest.
Moreover, the higher high scenario on 12/10/2010 basically indicated that there was a stronger risk appetite for stocks even though traders were earlier seen not so willing to push the stock index up fast for fear of running the stock index into an overbought zone again as the market had just done its pull back from 1,479.55 (17/9/2010) to 1,445.33 (24/9/2010).
Now, with market climbed higher to 1,494.10 on 13/10/2010, would the market be trading upward on 14/10/2010 ? An uncertainty scenario was created on 12/10/2010 with selling pressure gained a little control over the buying power. However, the bullish traders saw the non-follow thru selling pressure on 13/10/2010 as a good chance to turn the game play around with an eye at an initial test of 1,500 level.
Psychologically, 1,500 level would be viewed an important barrier as the last time this 1,500 level was broken was in 11/1/2008. FBM KLCI only spent 3 trading days above 1,500 to reach highest high of 1,524.69 on 14/1/2008 before succumbed to profit taking pressure. On this note, it would not be hard to see the reason behind of traders to stay cautious as stock index making its way to 1,500 level.
Thus, any attempt(s) to trade into 1,500 zone must be accompanied by strong determined buying power as profit taking pressure would sure to show up at and above 1,500 level for the first 3 attempts.
Conclusion :
Market outlook remained friendly as KLCI was still trading above 50-day MA with key market support level to remain at 1,400; but, 1,440 – 1,450 level should act as immediate support.
The analysis of overall daily market action(s) on 13/10/2010 revealed that buying power(s) was stronger compared to selling pressure(s), FBM KLCI would thus likely to trade above 1,496.96.
Market traded higher on 13/10/2010 despite the down close scenario in the preceding day (12/10/2010), what did it tell us ? Traders were still comfortable to establish stock positions, and they were not affected by the lower settlement on 12/10/2010.
The higher move on 13/10/2010 was a little surprise, because traders appeared to be choosing on sidelines when market could not inch higher than 1,494.10 on 12/10/2010. Thus, it must be the feeling of the 1,475 level crossover with an upside gap scenario on 6/10/2010 that continued to provide buying interest.
Moreover, the higher high scenario on 12/10/2010 basically indicated that there was a stronger risk appetite for stocks even though traders were earlier seen not so willing to push the stock index up fast for fear of running the stock index into an overbought zone again as the market had just done its pull back from 1,479.55 (17/9/2010) to 1,445.33 (24/9/2010).
Now, with market climbed higher to 1,494.10 on 13/10/2010, would the market be trading upward on 14/10/2010 ? An uncertainty scenario was created on 12/10/2010 with selling pressure gained a little control over the buying power. However, the bullish traders saw the non-follow thru selling pressure on 13/10/2010 as a good chance to turn the game play around with an eye at an initial test of 1,500 level.
Psychologically, 1,500 level would be viewed an important barrier as the last time this 1,500 level was broken was in 11/1/2008. FBM KLCI only spent 3 trading days above 1,500 to reach highest high of 1,524.69 on 14/1/2008 before succumbed to profit taking pressure. On this note, it would not be hard to see the reason behind of traders to stay cautious as stock index making its way to 1,500 level.
Thus, any attempt(s) to trade into 1,500 zone must be accompanied by strong determined buying power as profit taking pressure would sure to show up at and above 1,500 level for the first 3 attempts.
Conclusion :
Market outlook remained friendly as KLCI was still trading above 50-day MA with key market support level to remain at 1,400; but, 1,440 – 1,450 level should act as immediate support.
The analysis of overall daily market action(s) on 13/10/2010 revealed that buying power(s) was stronger compared to selling pressure(s), FBM KLCI would thus likely to trade above 1,496.96.
Wednesday, October 13, 2010
國民大會：貨幣大戰炒亞幣 20101013
國民大會：貨幣大戰炒亞幣(1/4) 20101013
國民大會：貨幣大戰炒亞幣(1/4)
國民大會：貨幣大戰炒亞幣(2/4)
國民大會：貨幣大戰炒亞幣(3/4)
國民大會：貨幣大戰炒亞幣(4/4)
Source/转贴/Extract/:youtube
Publish date:13/10/2010
國民大會：貨幣大戰炒亞幣(1/4)
國民大會：貨幣大戰炒亞幣(2/4)
國民大會：貨幣大戰炒亞幣(3/4)
國民大會：貨幣大戰炒亞幣(4/4)
Source/转贴/Extract/:youtube
Publish date:13/10/2010
CIMB:Berlian Laju Tanker (BLTA SP; TP: S$0.09).
• Shipping monitor- sector update. In an effort to placate the masses, China is stepping up moves to build affordable public housing, which can only be positive for long-term steel and iron ore demand. On the container front, Drewry’s HK-LA rate dropped 1.6% wow (cumulative 3.6% over the past two weeks) which is unsurprising. We are not overly concerned by this seasonal pattern of rate moderation as demand and supply growth look fairly well balanced into 2011. We are OVERWEIGHT on containers but NEUTRAL on dry bulk and UNDERWEIGHT tanker shipping. Our Outperform recommendations include NOL (NOL SP; TP: S$2.25), and Berlian Laju Tanker (BLTA SP; TP: S$0.09).
Note: cimb resport dated 05/10/10
Note: cimb resport dated 05/10/10
DBS:Expect construction demand of cS$24bn in 2011/12
The public sector, driven by HDB, LTA and JTC projects, is likely to account for about 55% of this figure. While BCA expects the average annual construction demand in 2011/12 to range between S$18bn and S$25bn, we believe construction demand should be at the higher end of this band, given the recent policy statements by PM Lee regarding the need to build more HDBs and enhance public transport infrastructure. Thus, looking ahead, in line with the continued expansionary fiscal policy, we expect construction demand in 2011/12 to grow further from 2010 levels, as seen in the graph below.
Our stock picks in this sector are
(i) Yongnam (Buy TP: $0.45), one of Singapore’s largest structural steel and civil works players that generates best-in-class gross margins of 25-30% and sits on record orderbook of S$460mil
(ii) OKP (Buy,TP: $0.70), a key Singapore road works player that boasts of net orderbook in excess of S$200mil, net cash of $0.33 per share and secure dividend yield of 6.3%
(iii) Pan United Corp (Buy, TP$0.66), which is one of the largest ready mix concrete
players in Singapore with 30% market share and will see earnings recover from 3Q10
(iv) Tiong Seng (Buy, TP:$0.36),construction company with a large order book of S$1.1bn andone of the highest sales cover of 3x among local contractors,and (v) Tat Hong (Buy, TP:$1.11), one of the world’s largestcrane rental company, will benefit from strong constructiondemand in Asia.
Our stock picks in this sector are
(i) Yongnam (Buy TP: $0.45), one of Singapore’s largest structural steel and civil works players that generates best-in-class gross margins of 25-30% and sits on record orderbook of S$460mil
(ii) OKP (Buy,TP: $0.70), a key Singapore road works player that boasts of net orderbook in excess of S$200mil, net cash of $0.33 per share and secure dividend yield of 6.3%
(iii) Pan United Corp (Buy, TP$0.66), which is one of the largest ready mix concrete
players in Singapore with 30% market share and will see earnings recover from 3Q10
(iv) Tiong Seng (Buy, TP:$0.36),construction company with a large order book of S$1.1bn andone of the highest sales cover of 3x among local contractors,and (v) Tat Hong (Buy, TP:$1.11), one of the world’s largestcrane rental company, will benefit from strong constructiondemand in Asia.
DBS:All boats rise with the tide
All boats rise with the tide
• The wave of liquidity will push up STI index to play ‘catch up’ with regional indices.
• Buy Index laggards: UOB, OCBC, Keppel Corp, Capitaland and SembCorp Marine. Turning more positive on offshore and marine yards, ahead of new contract wins.
• Rally in small-mid caps is sustainable – Go for Capital goods, construction stocks and M&A plays.
Breaking out of the band! We believe the time is ripe for the Singapore market to break above its trading band, from its average 12-mth forward PE cap of 14.75X to head for the +0.5SD 15.8X FY11 PE that points to an STI objective of 3500. A stock market that has primed itself for growth ‘moderation’ going forward, we expect liquidity inflows to push up the STI Index and narrow the valuation gap with regional peers. Almost every other Asian equity bourse had moved up above their average 12-mth forward PE level towards or above the +1SD level while STI is trailing behind, trading below its average PE band.
Go for blue chip laggards. Liquidity inflows will benefit the index laggards. We see potential for banks to be re-rated to close the gap with regional peers. We are turning more positive on rig builders, ahead of contract wins while the lifting of Obama’s drilling ban should be positive for the sector. Our picks are banks UOB, OCBC, Keppel Corp, SembCorp Marine, and Cosco Corp. Capitaland and Venture are laggards with specific catalysts.
SMCs in a ‘sweet spot’. Small mid caps (SMCs) has entered the ‘sweet spot’ of the current economic expansion phase and their recent interest is sustainable. PE valuation for SMCs tends to trade at a premium to large caps as the economic recovery progresses. Currently, it remains at a discount. While SMCs offer accelerating earnings growth, big caps are facing slower growth next year. Growth fuels investors’ interest.
Mid expansion phase favors capital goods. We believe that the current economic climate coincides with an inflationary boom, and will lead to higher capital equipment spending while demand for basic materials should pick up as companies tackle capacity constraints. Our picks are Ezion, PEC and Midas.
M&A plays in focus. M&A deals are set to accelerate in Asia where growth is expected to continue while the rest of the world slows. PE firms will start to buy into Asia soon as they have been raising funds in the region lately. The Asian consumption growth story is a key attraction where we have identified consumer-related stock Asiatravel. Cash-rich tech giants may possibly acquire growth through Hi-P, Meiban and STATS ChipPac. Singapore offshore and marine stocks - Mermaid and JES – all look attractive from a valuation standpoint. Other potential takeover targets, in our view are Biosensors, OKP, Luye Pharmaceutical and Wheelock Properties.
• The wave of liquidity will push up STI index to play ‘catch up’ with regional indices.
• Buy Index laggards: UOB, OCBC, Keppel Corp, Capitaland and SembCorp Marine. Turning more positive on offshore and marine yards, ahead of new contract wins.
• Rally in small-mid caps is sustainable – Go for Capital goods, construction stocks and M&A plays.
Breaking out of the band! We believe the time is ripe for the Singapore market to break above its trading band, from its average 12-mth forward PE cap of 14.75X to head for the +0.5SD 15.8X FY11 PE that points to an STI objective of 3500. A stock market that has primed itself for growth ‘moderation’ going forward, we expect liquidity inflows to push up the STI Index and narrow the valuation gap with regional peers. Almost every other Asian equity bourse had moved up above their average 12-mth forward PE level towards or above the +1SD level while STI is trailing behind, trading below its average PE band.
Go for blue chip laggards. Liquidity inflows will benefit the index laggards. We see potential for banks to be re-rated to close the gap with regional peers. We are turning more positive on rig builders, ahead of contract wins while the lifting of Obama’s drilling ban should be positive for the sector. Our picks are banks UOB, OCBC, Keppel Corp, SembCorp Marine, and Cosco Corp. Capitaland and Venture are laggards with specific catalysts.
SMCs in a ‘sweet spot’. Small mid caps (SMCs) has entered the ‘sweet spot’ of the current economic expansion phase and their recent interest is sustainable. PE valuation for SMCs tends to trade at a premium to large caps as the economic recovery progresses. Currently, it remains at a discount. While SMCs offer accelerating earnings growth, big caps are facing slower growth next year. Growth fuels investors’ interest.
Mid expansion phase favors capital goods. We believe that the current economic climate coincides with an inflationary boom, and will lead to higher capital equipment spending while demand for basic materials should pick up as companies tackle capacity constraints. Our picks are Ezion, PEC and Midas.
M&A plays in focus. M&A deals are set to accelerate in Asia where growth is expected to continue while the rest of the world slows. PE firms will start to buy into Asia soon as they have been raising funds in the region lately. The Asian consumption growth story is a key attraction where we have identified consumer-related stock Asiatravel. Cash-rich tech giants may possibly acquire growth through Hi-P, Meiban and STATS ChipPac. Singapore offshore and marine stocks - Mermaid and JES – all look attractive from a valuation standpoint. Other potential takeover targets, in our view are Biosensors, OKP, Luye Pharmaceutical and Wheelock Properties.
Tuesday, October 12, 2010
Pacific Shipping Trust -DBS
Pacific Shipping Trust announced that it had entered into two shipbuilding contracts with Dalian Shipbuilding Industry/ China Shipbuilding & Offshore Int'l - for the construction of two new 24,000 dwt Multi-Purpose Vessels (MPPs) and concurrently signed long-term time charter agreements with Cosco Xiamen (100% owned by the COSCO Group) for the two vessels. The acquisition cost for each vessel is US$30m and they will be delivered in September and December 2012.
This deal will further diversify the revenue stream in terms of vessel type and counterparty. Given that the ships will be delivered towards end-FY12, there is unlikely to be any significant impact to DPU before 2013. The key positive is that it adds revenue visibility beyond 2013-14. Maintain BUY with TP of US$0.37.
This deal will further diversify the revenue stream in terms of vessel type and counterparty. Given that the ships will be delivered towards end-FY12, there is unlikely to be any significant impact to DPU before 2013. The key positive is that it adds revenue visibility beyond 2013-14. Maintain BUY with TP of US$0.37.
Kenanga: KLCI Poised for further upside
Bulls maintain charge, adding 15.56 points week-on-week as investors piled on additional risk on waning possibility of a double dip. Continue positive economic data points from across the region lend further confidence that the global economy will likely to grow albeit slowly.
Interestingly, CI has been able to punch through marginally our envisaged 1,479 resistance level after a brief bout of consolidation. Technically, nothing has changed since last week with the CI looking positively biased still as it continues to trend above its primary uptrend line. The hooking up of the moving averages reinforces the current buoyant market conditions while the daily RSI is also looking to trend higher after the recent pullback and consolidation.
Speculation on possible budget winners most probably the construction and financial sectors should see counters within those sectors to continue to do well in the near term. Upside targets for the CI now pegged at 1,516 – 1,524 while support should be found at 1,476 – 1,472 with 1,450 as next.
DBSV: PST Orders 2 more vessels for delivery in 2012, chartered out to Cosco Xiamen
Pacific Shipping Trust :
BUY US$0.32;
TP US$0.37; PST SP
Orders 2 more vessels for delivery in 2012, chartered out to Cosco Xiamen
PST diversifies revenues further. Pacific Shipping Trust announced that it had entered into two shipbuilding contracts with Dalian Shipbuilding Industry/ China Shipbuilding & Offshore Int'l - part of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC), one of China's largest state-owned shipbuilding groups - for the construction of two new 24,000 dwt Multi-Purpose Vessels ("MPPs") and concurrently signed long-term time charter agreements with Cosco Xiamen (100% owned by the COSCO Group) for the two vessels. The acquisition cost for each vessel is US$30m and they will be delivered in September and December 2012. This deal closely follows PST's earlier acquisition of 2 bulk carriers and will further diversify the revenue stream in terms of vessel type and counterparty. MPPs are typically used for shipping infrastructure-driven project and other specialised cargoes and the demand-supply equation at present is relatively favourable for the sector.
Acquisition price on the higher side but so is asset yield. Clarksons quotes newbuilding prices for 22,000 dwt MPPs at S$25m, so the pricing of S$30m for 24,000 dwt vessels looks a bit steep. However, the daily charter rate of US$14,900 implies an asset yield of more than 18% - which is higher than the 16% yield on the recent bulk carrier deal. This is due to the purchase option granted to the charterer at the end of the 10 year time charter period. The charter period is firm for the first 58 months, with an option to extend another 62 months, after which the purchase option comes into play with a purchase price of US$14.7m per vessel. The payment schedule involves a 40% deposit and three progress payments of 5% each. Predeposits payments are backed by advances from sponsor PIL.
Hence there will be no funding needed before end-2012 when the vessels are delivered.
No immediate impact, slightly DPU accretive in FY12 and beyond. Given that the ships will be delivered towards end- FY12, there is unlikely to be any significant impact to DPU before 2013. The key positive is that it adds revenue visibility beyond 2013-14, when the CSAV and PIL charters come up for renewal. We had earlier estimated equity raising of about US$25m for the bulk carrier deal, and this new acquisition could necessitate raising another US$20m or so. We expect further clarity when management finalized its financing plans for these recent acquisitions. We remain confident of PST's ability to pay out steady DPU in 2H10 and FY11. We like their acquisition driven growth strategy, backed by a relatively conservative balance sheet and amortizing loan structure. Maintain BUY with TP of US$0.37.
Source/转贴/Extract/: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:12/10/10
BUY US$0.32;
TP US$0.37; PST SP
Orders 2 more vessels for delivery in 2012, chartered out to Cosco Xiamen
PST diversifies revenues further. Pacific Shipping Trust announced that it had entered into two shipbuilding contracts with Dalian Shipbuilding Industry/ China Shipbuilding & Offshore Int'l - part of China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation (CSIC), one of China's largest state-owned shipbuilding groups - for the construction of two new 24,000 dwt Multi-Purpose Vessels ("MPPs") and concurrently signed long-term time charter agreements with Cosco Xiamen (100% owned by the COSCO Group) for the two vessels. The acquisition cost for each vessel is US$30m and they will be delivered in September and December 2012. This deal closely follows PST's earlier acquisition of 2 bulk carriers and will further diversify the revenue stream in terms of vessel type and counterparty. MPPs are typically used for shipping infrastructure-driven project and other specialised cargoes and the demand-supply equation at present is relatively favourable for the sector.
Acquisition price on the higher side but so is asset yield. Clarksons quotes newbuilding prices for 22,000 dwt MPPs at S$25m, so the pricing of S$30m for 24,000 dwt vessels looks a bit steep. However, the daily charter rate of US$14,900 implies an asset yield of more than 18% - which is higher than the 16% yield on the recent bulk carrier deal. This is due to the purchase option granted to the charterer at the end of the 10 year time charter period. The charter period is firm for the first 58 months, with an option to extend another 62 months, after which the purchase option comes into play with a purchase price of US$14.7m per vessel. The payment schedule involves a 40% deposit and three progress payments of 5% each. Predeposits payments are backed by advances from sponsor PIL.
Hence there will be no funding needed before end-2012 when the vessels are delivered.
No immediate impact, slightly DPU accretive in FY12 and beyond. Given that the ships will be delivered towards end- FY12, there is unlikely to be any significant impact to DPU before 2013. The key positive is that it adds revenue visibility beyond 2013-14, when the CSAV and PIL charters come up for renewal. We had earlier estimated equity raising of about US$25m for the bulk carrier deal, and this new acquisition could necessitate raising another US$20m or so. We expect further clarity when management finalized its financing plans for these recent acquisitions. We remain confident of PST's ability to pay out steady DPU in 2H10 and FY11. We like their acquisition driven growth strategy, backed by a relatively conservative balance sheet and amortizing loan structure. Maintain BUY with TP of US$0.37.
Source/转贴/Extract/: DBS Vickers Research
Publish date:12/10/10
Monday, October 11, 2010
MIDF: Momentum intact
• The 2011 Budget will be unveiled on 15 October. Budget week in the past fi ve years had been a non-event (see table). The weekly return in a Budget week ranged 0.6% - 2.4%. However, we note that the KLCI always closed the week higher in a Budget week, as expectation is heightened for Budget goodies.
• On this basis, we expect the FBM KLCI to hold fort next week. Macro factors tugging down arguments for a potential rally include
(i) selldown on ringgit on Friday, as it depreciated to RM3.1138 against the greenback, from the week’s high of RM3.0815
(ii) crude oil retreating from a recent rally which peaked at USD84.43pb.
Crude oil last traded at USD82.66pb on Friday.
• In any case, much of the aspects of the Budget has been preempted by the unveiling of the 10th Malaysia Plan, New Economic Model, and recently the Economic Transformation Programme’s EPPs and BOs. It could therefore be a non-event.
HwangDBS: KLCI next leg of the market rally ??
From a recent bottom of 1,445.33, the FBM KLCI has bounced up swiftly over the past fortnight to a new 33-month high. This may signal that the short-term consolidation process – which saw a peak-to-trough correction of 2.3% and lasted just five days (refer chart overleaf) – could have come and gone, faster than our initial thoughts. If so, then the next leg of the market rally may be in progress already.
For the upward trajectory to extend, the buying momentum has to carry the bellwether to surpass the immediate resistance line of 1,495. A clean breakout would then take the FBM KLCI towards the next resistance target of 1,525 (where its all-time high was back in mid-Jan 08).
Failing to do so will suggest that the market consolidation is not over yet. In this case, a deeper pullback for the benchmark index is anticipated, with downside risks to be cushioned by the first and second support levels of 1,465 and 1,435, respectively.
Between the two, we will place our bet on the more bullish scenario at this juncture.
CIMB: Watch the trend lines for STI
Watch the trend lines for STI. Not much has changed for the STI. The index continued to trade in the uptrend channel that began in early Sep. As long as the support trend line, currently at 3,120, holds, the immediate uptrend remains intact. The critical support trend line is at 3,040 and a break below this would indicate that a deeper correction is taking place. The daily MACD & RSI continue to show negative divergence signs.
CIMB: Start of next upleg for KLCI?
Start of next upleg for KLCI? The KLCI’s break above 1,480pts indicates that the next upleg could have already started for the index. If so, the index should continue to rally this week. The daily RSI’s break above the resistance trend line would reaffirm our view that the next upleg has started. Support remains at the 21-day SMA (1,465).
If this support gives way, it could indicate that the wave (iv) consolidation is still in progress, likely in an expanded flat formation. The consolidation target would be 1,430-1,440.
Pacific Shipping Trust -cimb
Pacific Shipping Trust reported that it has entered into two ship building contracts with China Shipbuilding & Offshore International Co., Ltd. and Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co., Ltd. for the construction and acquisition of two new 24,000 DWT Multi-Purpose Vessels (Hulls No. MC 240-5 and MC 240-6) and two time charter agreements with Xiamen Ocean Shipping Company. We expect the news to be positive for the stock
Sunday, October 10, 2010
胡立阳-在股市里跳华尔兹 (财经追击 09.10.10)
前进三步，后退一步，这是华尔兹舞步。
胡立阳认为，在股市中，也能大跳华尔兹。
前进三步，意指股价涨幅达30%，就要卖出，这是获利点。
后退一步，意指股价跌幅达10%，就要卖出，这是止损点。
你左我右，我进你退，跳华尔兹需要默契，才能跳出曼妙舞姿。
同样地，投资者可以从舞步中得出进场和离场讯号。
其中一个买入讯号是：在股市低迷之际，某只股票股价止跌，然后周量突增，可能是买入对机会。
其中一个卖出讯号是：当股价跌幅超过20%，就要赶紧卖出；不然，这只股票一般需要至少43个交易日才会回弹。
胡立阳认为，在股市中，也能大跳华尔兹。
前进三步，意指股价涨幅达30%，就要卖出，这是获利点。
后退一步，意指股价跌幅达10%，就要卖出，这是止损点。
你左我右，我进你退，跳华尔兹需要默契，才能跳出曼妙舞姿。
同样地，投资者可以从舞步中得出进场和离场讯号。
其中一个买入讯号是：在股市低迷之际，某只股票股价止跌，然后周量突增，可能是买入对机会。
其中一个卖出讯号是：当股价跌幅超过20%，就要赶紧卖出；不然，这只股票一般需要至少43个交易日才会回弹。
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