Thursday, February 11, 2010


Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010


Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010


Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010


Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010


Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010


Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010


Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010


Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010


Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010


Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010

Wednesday, February 10, 2010


Source/转贴/Extract/: youtube
Publish date:11/02/2010



A New Name, A Fresh Start
• Fair value maintained at $0.22, recommendation upgrade from sell to hold

• 3Q10 Revebue = $12.6 million, (-3.3% y-y, +6.2% q-q)
• Net property income = $9.9 million, (+5.3% y-y, +9.1% q-q)
• Distributable income = $5.4 million. (-14.0% y-y, +4.0% q-q).
• Total asset value of $565.9 million, gearing at 28.9%

A new name, a fresh start
The lower y-y revenue was due to the lower recovery of property tax and land rent, which is reimbursable by tenants. However net property income showed increment for both y-y and q-q mainly due to the one-month revenue contribution from the 1A IBP property. For 3Q10, AIMS declared a special distribution prior to the issuance of placement units of 0.95 cents for the period from 1 Oct 2009 to 23 Nov 2009, and a distribution of 0.1868 cents for the period from 24 Nov 2009 to 31 Dec 2009.

Portfolio asset value as at 31 Dec 2009 was $565.9 million. Additionally, the acquisition of the 4 properties from AMP Capital was completed on 11 Jan 2010. The property portfolio achieves an occupancy rate of 99.0%.

We are expecting AIMSAMP REIT to report better growth in the next quarter from the full quarter contributions of the newly acquired properties

Capital management

AIMSAMP REIT is definitely in much better financial shape now, after the tough recapitalization exercise last year. AIMSAMP REIT has total debt of $190.2 million, out of which $175 million is denominated in SGD and due in 2012. The remaining $15 million is JPY loan, which AIMSAMP REIT has already secured the credit facility to refinance it. Gearing is at 28.9%, which is an improvement from the pre-recapitalization gearing of 44.7%.

Our concerns

We are definitely more optimistic of the REIT now, with an improved balance sheet and also properties that are providing good yields. We also see some good quality investors in the REIT. Our two main concerns now are
1. portfolio acquisition growth is constrained by the gearing limit of 35%
2. high interest cost that dampens distribution

One of the covenants in the refinancing facility is that AIMSAMP REIT will be subjected to a higher interest margin by 100 basis points if its gearing is subsequently increased to above 35%. Currently it is paying an interest margin of 3.5% on $175 million of loan. This essentially limits AIMS expansion plan to take on more loans and investors would also be adverse to equity funding after the recent dilution. Our second concern follows from the first point. Together with the interest margin, the total interest rate on the loan is 5.4%. If gearing breaches the 35% mark, interest rate would increase by another 1%. During a discussion with management, one of the strategies is the repositioning of the properties. Divesting assets and using the proceeds to pare down debt and subsequently taking on new loans with lower interest cost is one of the ways to add value to unitholders.

We are forecasting 4Q10E DPU to be 0.36cents, bringing full year FY10E DPU to be 4.95 cents. Subsequently, we forecast FY11E DPU to be 2.01 cents, which translate to a yield of 9.3%, incorporating the full year contribution from the acquired properties but without assuming further acquisitions. In our view, it would be a big plus if management is able to execute its plan to lighten its interest expenses. On the other hand, collecting an annual yield of 9% sounds fine to us too. We are maintaining our fair value of $0.22 and upgrading our recommending from sell to hold.

Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Cambridge Industrial Trust -Nomura

Executing two-step funding

• FY10-11F DPU cut to reflect asset sale, sale of AAREIT stake; FY12F DPU of S$0.052

Following the 4Q09 results, we have revised our estimates for CREIT to reflect the sale of 16 Tuas Avenue 18A and six strata units at Enterprise Hub during the quarter. In addition, we have factored in a loss of S$2.4mn booked in 4Q09 from the sale of CREIT’s entire stake in AAREIT (formerly MIREIT), which we had previously included in our distribution forecast.

FY12F DPU forecast = S$0.052 (+1.6% y-y).

• Further asset divestment could pare DPU by S$0.003
As of end-4Q09, assets worth S$78.6mn have been contracted for sale over the next 12 months and booked as “investment properties held for divestment”. Assuming an average exit yield of 8% for these assets and that the proceeds will repay borrowings that cost 4.2% in cash interest, our numbers suggest another S$0.003 could be shed from our FY10-12F DPU forecasts.

Given that this is in essence a two-step funding process for potential accretive opportunities (divestment proceeds to pay down existing term loan facility, and then use the debt capacity to gear up for asset enhancement of existing portfolio or external acquisition), the ultimate DPU impact therefore will depend on management’s execution of this strategy.

• NEUTRAL, price target raised to S$0.48

We have cut our cap rate assumption by 50bps and, adjusting for other changes following the results, we have raised our core NAV and price target to S$0.48 (from S$0.44). Our new price target offers a potential total return of 17.7%, including a projected FY10F dividend yield of 11.3%.


February 8, 2010















Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock