Saturday, March 1, 2014

Sector Savvy - REITS

Home prices will ease further: CapitaLand

Friday, February 28, 2014

Neratel: Lower Growth Expectations (DMG)

Neratel: Lower Growth Expectations
(NEUTRAL, SGD0.72, TP: SGD0.72)

NeraTel’s 4Q13 SGD3.8m PATMI (-0.6% y-o-y) and SGD44.5m revenue (-2.0% y-o-y) were below expectations. This was largely to disappointments in its telecom segment. Going forward, we lower our growth expectations as it will focus more on earnings quality and high dividend payouts. Downgrade to NEUTRAL with a lower SGD0.72 TP (from SDG0.80) based on 12.4x FY14F P/E (+1 SD to its 5-year average).

Noble Group - Recovery priced in (CIMB)

Noble Group
Current S$0.99
Target S$1.00
Recovery priced in

▊ Noble’s FY13 core net profit of US$354m (-20% yoy) was 15% above our full-year forecast and 10% above consensus. The positive variance stems from higher-than-expected gross margins and lower-than-expected depreciation. Overall, the results were encouraging as bottom-up initiatives to cut costs and improve efficiencies are starting to bear fruit. We lift our FY14-15 core EPS by 1-11% for stronger margins and introduce FY16 numbers. However, at 1.1x CY14 P/BV (prev. 10x CY15 P/E), to which our target price is now pegged (change in valuation basis to align with its peer, Olam), we think that a recovery has already been priced in. We keep our Hold rating and would re-visit the stock on better Agriculture showing.

Wilmar International - Run-of-the-mill quarter ahead (CIMB)

Wilmar International -
Current S$3.37
Target S$4.16
Run-of-the-mill quarter ahead

Wilmar's results briefing left us feeling more positive on its investment in Shree Renuka and the outlook for its palm and laurics division. However, this is offset by its guidance of weaker crush margins qoq as meal demand has softened in China. Overall, we expect 1Q14 earnings to soften qoq due to lower contributions from oilseeds & grains and sugar milling. We maintain our SOP-based target price and Add rating. Stronger-than-expected earnings recovery and potential M&As are the main potential re-rating catalysts.




Neptune Orient Lines -Grinding through the worst of times (MKE)

Neptune Orient Lines
Share Price: SGD1.005
Target Price: SGD1.00
Grinding through the worst of times

§ 4Q13 net loss of USD137.2m in line with expectations.
§ Structural overcapacity will continue to depress freight rates in 2014.
§ Expect another loss-making year with little scope for stock re-rating. Maintain HOLD and TP of SGD1.00.

Poor results in line with expectations
NOL reported a poor set of fourth-quarter results to end the year with net loss of USD137.2m (4Q12: USD91.1m).

Thursday, February 27, 2014

Ascott Residence Trust: Delivering the first shot in Dalian (DBSV)

Ascott Residence Trust:
STI : 3,086.64
BUY S$1.18
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.33
Delivering the first shot in Dalian

•First acquisition in Dalian, China for Rmb 571m
•Accretive to earnings; more to come
•Maintain BUY and S$1.33 TP

Delivering its first acquisition in Dalian; implied yield of 5.5% is accretive.  Ascott REIT announced the proposed acquisition of a 125-unit serviced residence in Dalian for Rmb 571m (cS$118.6m) from a third party. The property is located in the heart of Jinzhou New District, which has seen robust foreign direct investments in recent years and is home to many established multinational corporations. The purchase price implies an EBITDA yield of 5.5%, which is higher than its current portfolio yield of 5.4% for its serviced residences in China.  The acquisition will be funded with proceeds from the recent rights issue and is estimated to results in a 1.5% uplift in DPUs. Gearing will inch up to c36%.

Sheng Siong - In need of some new stores (CIMB)

Sheng Siong Group  
Current S$0.60
Target S$0.67
In need of some new stores

▊ 4Q13 did not throw up negative surprises. But, without the tailwinds of store expansion ahead, neither can earnings surprise positively. Sheng Siong remains a steady cashflow generator with a decent 4.3% dividend yield, and minimum growth. Its FY13 profits of S$38.9m was largely in line, forming 99% of our full-year forecast. Its total retail space remains unchanged at 400k sq ft. Management expects all 11 new stores opened in FY11 and FY12 to still grow in 2014; we think it is difficult to do more than 3-5% SSSG. We cut our FY14-15 EPS by 9-10%, causing our target price (still based on 22x CY15 P/E, in line with Dairy Farm’s) to fall. We maintain our Add call, with store additions (if and when economic growth slows) being a potential catalyst.

Neptune Orient Lines- It could have been worse (CIMB)

Neptune Orient Lines
Current S$1.01
Target S$1.10
It could have been worse

▊ NOL’s full-year core net loss of US$305m was in line at 99% of our expectation, and could have been much worse if it had not cut US$470m from its costs last year, as it replaced expensive long-term charters with newly delivered ships. The annual loss shrank slightly from the US$362m in 2012, with the yoy drop in average freight rates almost wholly offsetting the cost savings. We fine-tune our forecasts, and introduce our FY16 numbers. Our call remains a Hold, but we reduce the target price slightly as we lower the target multiple from 1.1x CY14 P/BV to 1.05x, still based on the average since 2012.

Wilmar International - Stronger 4Q crushing margins (CIMB)

Wilmar International
Current S$3.36
Target S$4.16
Stronger 4Q crushing margins

▊ Wilmar's FY13 core net profit was 1% below consensus but 2% above our estimate due mainly to lower effective tax rate. Earnings improved for all key divisions other than plantations and fertiliser. A final dividend of S$0.055 was declared, bringing the total dividend to S$0.08. We are neutral on the group’s announcement that it plans to invest US$200m in Shree Renuka Sugar. We fine-tune our earnings forecasts and raise our SOP-based target price slightly to S$4.16. Wilmar remains an Add as we believe that the market has not fully priced in the potential growth of its maturing new business and investments in higher-margin products. It is also attractive from a valuation standpoint as the stock trades at 1.1x FY14 P/BV, compared to its historical average of 1.9x.

曾淵滄專欄 27.02.14:土地供應竟有新意



CapitaLand - Taking a big bath (CIMB)

Current S$2.91
Target S$3.51
Taking a big bath

▊ 4Q13 was a quarter of kitchen sinking, as impairment and divestment losses resulted in poor headline numbers. Excluding these, core net profit was decent. With Singapore housing making up just a fraction of its GAV, FY14 operational growth will now depend on China sales and CMA. The latter is showing good progress. At the CapLand level, we think ROEs may only accelerate from 2015. CMA’s share price has de-rated recently. Between the two, we now prefer CMA. CapLand’s 4Q13 core profit was in line at 28% of our full year (FY13 at 95%), and 23% of consensus. We lower our FY14-15 core EPS on slower China sales, and cut our target price on a higher 25% discount to RNAV (20% before). Maintain Add on valuations.

Wednesday, February 26, 2014

CapitaLand: Impacted by one-offs (DBSV)

STI : 3,088.79
BUY S$2.91
Price Target : 12-month S$ 3.90 (Prev S$ 3.93)
Impacted by one-offs

•Results dragged by impairments and one-off losses
•Focus on driving operational performance should provide a stronger growth platform in the longer run
•Maintain Buy, TP S$3.90

Amtek Engineering -On Track For Recovery (UOBKH)

Amtek Engineering -
Share Price S$0.52
Target Price S$0.63
1HFY14: PBT +19.3% yoy; On Track For Recovery

• On track for a recovery year. 1HFY14 revenue rose 5% yoy to US$334.2m, forming 51.8% of our full-year forecast. Excluding one-off items, adjusted profit before tax would have been US$18.3m (+19.3% yoy), which forms 52% of our fullyear forecast. For 2QFY14, revenue rose 6% yoy, with adjusted profit before tax growing 13.5% yoy to US$8.4m.

Genting Singapore- Value in balance sheet (CIMB)

Genting Singapore
Current S$1.40
Target S$1.81
Value in balance sheet

▊ GENS’s 4Q13 core net profit was only half of our estimate, resulting in FY13 core EPS coming in 15% below our expectation. The S$90m shortfall in 4Q13 core net profit can be explained by: 1) the below-average win rate of 2.5% (S$62m hit on bottomline), and 2) the S$28m additional provisioning for the ageing of receivables. Adjusting for these two factors, it appears that our view that GENS’s earnings are bottoming out and turning the corner is materialising. We cut our FY14-15 EPS by 10% and RNAV-based target price to conservatively assume that the additional provisioning for the ageing of receivables will continue indefinitely. Maintain Add. GENS has started to use its excess capital with the Jeju Island JV. More deals will be key catalysts.

Hyflux - Missing the mark (CIMB)

Current S$1.24
Target S$1.04
Missing the mark

▊ Hyflux’s 4Q13 results were derailed by a power plant delay that hit its recurring earnings and main earnings driver, given the lack of new project wins. Its FY13 core net profit missed both consensus and our expectations by coming in at only 81% of our full-year forecast. We lower our FY14-15 EPS by 15-25% on higher cost and lower order-win assumptions, and introduce our FY16 numbers. Our SOP-based target price is also lower to reflect fewer order wins, though this is partially offset by higher market multiples for its water portfolios. We downgrade our call from Hold to Reduce as we believe a higher project win rate is needed to sustain its earnings growth, while the slower 1H14 guided by management is also not helping the investment case.




Pan-United - Acquires CCIP port in Changshu (DBSV)

Pan-United Corporation,
STI : 3,086.64
HOLD S$0.905
(Downgrade from BUY)
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.03 (Prev S$ 1.21)
Acquires CCIP port in Changshu
•Paid RMB437m at 1.3x book for 90% stake in Changshu Changjiang International Port (CCIP); funded by 50% debt, 50% internal cash
•Plans to expand CXP’s port operations through CCIP’s additional capacity
•Net debt increased to 0.5x, earnings reduced by 8% on higher interest cost
•Downgrade to HOLD with lower S$1.03 TP

Tuesday, February 25, 2014

CapitaCommercial Trust - Turning green with envy (Daiwa)

CapitaCommercial Trust
Target (SGD): 1.650
17 Feb price (SGD): 1.395

Turning green with envy
• We believe CCT is one of the best proxies for the Singapore Office Sector and its potential for a spot-rent recovery in 2014
• CCT enjoys an attractive risk-reward ratio through its CapitaGreen exposure and industry-low gearing of 29%
• We upgrade to Buy (1) from Outperform (2) with a new DDM derived 6-month target price of SGD1.69 (previously SGD1.65)

Suntec REIT - Remains our top pick (Daiwa)

Suntec REIT
Target (SGD): 2.000
17 Feb price (SGD): 1.665

Remains our top pick
• The uncertainty about the Suntec City AEI was one factor for its valuation discount; its resolution could be a positive catalyst
• As Suntec completes its AEI, we forecast a 2013-16 DPU CAGR of 12.8%, the highest in the S-REIT Sector
• Reiterating Buy (1) rating and 6-month target price of SGD2.00, which compared with a book value of SGD2.13 (as at end-2013)

Singapore Office REITs - A bright spot in 2014 (Daiwa)

Singapore Office REITs - A bright spot in 2014
Written By Stock Fanatic on Wednesday, February 19, 2014
• We believe office S-REITs are compelling for their exposure to a segment that is experiencing a recovery in spot rents

• Price weakness since 4Q13 has made valuations more attractive; trading at PBRs of 0.78-0.82x vs. S-REIT weighted avg of 0.94x

• We upgrade CCT to Buy (1) from Outperform (2), and KREIT to Outperform (2) from Hold (3); Suntec remains our top pick

CapitaMall Trust: Worth a revisit (OCBC)

CapitaMall Trust:
Fair value S$2.20
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.110
versus: Current price S$1.81
Worth a revisit

CapitaMall Trust (CMT) has continued to underperform both its local retail REIT peers and the broader S-REITs sector YTD, despite its enhanced portfolio assets, financial position and strong track record. At current price, we believe that valuation is increasingly compelling, now that CMT is trading at 1.04x P/B, and offers a FY14F yield of 6.1%. In the past year, CMT has benefitted from higher secured rentals at several of its portfolio properties post asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs). We believe CMT will continue to focus largely on organic growth via AEI and tenant repositioning to improve its portfolio yield. The domestic landscape has also been supportive of the retail leasing demand, given the relatively resilient retail sales, expanding population and interest from international and new-to-market retailers. Maintain BUY and S$2.20 fair value on CMT.

Saizen REIT - Dividend yield still attractive despite Yen weakness (NRA)

Saizen REIT
Current Price S$0.92
Fair Value S$1.03
Dividend yield still attractive despite Yen weakness

 Operational performance in line. Saizens’s 2Q14 net operating income of JPY449m was in line with our JPY445m net operating income. We maintain our valuation of Saizen at S$1.03 assuming a JPY/S$ exchange rate of 81. Its yield remains attractive at 6.8% in FY14F and 7.0% in FY15F. Its current PBR of 0.77x is low compared to PBR of 1.1x of listed peers in Japan. Maintain Overweight.




Pan-United Corp - Building on its success (CIMB)

Pan-United Corp -
Current S$0.92
Target S$1.18
Building on its success

PAN is expanding its port capacity by acquiring its neighbour’s capacity. We lower our FY14-15 EPS to account for financial costs, though our residual-income target price rises by 4.5% on future contributions from its expanded port business. We retain our Add rating, with potential catalysts from contributions from its BBR segment and improved earnings from its enlarged CXP operations.

Monday, February 24, 2014

Biosensor International - News on potential acquisition by Citic PE, a stronger signal of privatisation (CS)

Biosensor International -
Price (18 Feb 14 , S$) 1.00
TP (prev. TP S$) 1.00 (1.00)
News on potential acquisition by Citic PE, a stronger signal of privatisation

■ Biosensor's stock jumped by 17.2% from S$0.87 to S$1.02 within 15 minutes during lunch-period trading. Right after it, Bloomberg News reported that Citic Private Equity Funds Management Co. is considering buying full control of medical device-maker, Biosensors International Group Ltd., according to two people with knowledge of the deliberations.

The stock halted trading in the afternoon and it is unclear when the trading will resume.

Goodpack : On track with new accounts (OCBC)

Goodpack Limited:
Fair value S$2.17
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.05
versus: Current price S$1.87
On track with new accounts

Goodpack’s revenue and PATMI for 2QFY14 met our expectations by increasing 9.8% YoY to US$50.9m and 12.0% to US$12.5m respectively. 1HFY14 revenue at US$103.0m forms 99.9% and 49.1% of our 1HFY14 and FY14 forecasts respectively. Correspondingly, 1HFY14 PATMI at US$26.4m forms 100.4% and 49.0% of our 1HFY14 and FY14 forecasts. We maintain our previous investment thesis that new accounts and segments will drive growth as Goodpack acquired a new synthetic rubber client in China and also three new auto parts clients to start off with trials. We maintain our BUY call with a DCF-based fair value of S$2.17.

Sin Heng Heavy Machinery -Ex FX hedging, top-line intact (Philip)

Sin Heng Heavy Machinery -
Closing Price (SGD)0.250
Forecast Dividend (SGD)0.007
Closing Price (SGD)0.189
Ex FX hedging, top-line intact

■ Trading Revenue (41.4M) up +48% yoy due to increased regional sales, Rental Revenue (11.7M) down -13% yoy due to expected slowdown in SG due to project completions.

■ Reported net profit (0.27M) decreased 91.1% yoy. However, adjusting for FX hedging, adj. net profit decreased slightly by -5.8% yoy to an estimated 2.86M SGD which is an increase of +4.9% 1H14 vs 1H13.

Croesus Retail Trust - Continues to deliver (DBSV)

Croesus Retail Trust
STI : 3,038.71
BUY S$0.915
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.02
Continues to deliver

• Improved results boosted by better operating cost management and slightly higher than expected revenue growth
• Rental reversion outlook for Mallage Shobu bright; acquisition drivers in place
• Maintain Buy and S$1.02 TP

Continues to beat forecast. CRT reported 2Q14 distribution income of JPY713m, 6% above forecast, translating to a DPU of 2.02Scts. This was achieved on a 1.2% higher than projected revenue of JPY1.287bn and lower than expected interest expense. NPI improved 2.4% on better operating cost management. Maiden DPU of 5.24Scts for the period 10 May 2013- 30 Jun 2014, is expected to be paid on 31 Mar 2014. Book closure date is 26 Feb 2014.





• Weak IDR drags down results
• Repaid S$147.5m facility
• Maintain HOLD

4Q13 gross rental income contracts 4%
LMIRT’s 4Q13 results were significantly below ours and the street’s expectations. FY13 DPU of 3.25 S cents formed only ~93% of ours and the street’s prior estimate. LMIRT reported 4Q13 gross rental income of S$33.9m, down 4.0% YoY. Net property income (NPI) was S$31.1m, down 5.5% YoY. 4Q13 average IDR/SGD rate depreciated 15.4% YoY, pulling down the results. In IDR-terms, 4Q13 gross rental income and NPI increased by 13.5% YoY and 11.7% YoY respectively. Distributable income fell by 14.6% YoY to S$13.8m and 4Q13 DPU contracted 24.3% YoY to 0.56 S cents (down 36% QoQ).

Sunday, February 23, 2014


Created 02/12/2014 - 10:23



大马超级富豪第6名:两项私有化虽碰钉 郭令灿越战越勇

大马超级富豪第6名:两项私有化虽碰钉 郭令灿越战越勇
Created 02/11/2014 - 10:49
2013年对于丹斯里郭令灿而言并不顺遂,因为他先后要私有化香港上市公司国浩集团(Guoco Group)和旗下的丰隆资本(HLCAP,5274,主板金融股)都以失败告终。



大马超级富豪第5名:种植兼产业霸主 李深静分家铺路

大马超级富豪第5名:种植兼产业霸主 李深静分家铺路
Created 02/10/2014 - 10:02





Created 02/09/2014 - 12:20



大马超级富豪第3名:云顶业务版图横跨3时区 林国泰每秒有钱赚

大马超级富豪第3名:云顶业务版图横跨3时区 林国泰每秒有钱赚
Created 02/08/2014 - 10:26




Created 02/07/2014 - 09:50



大马超级富豪第1名:一改低调展现爱国情怀 郭鹤年坚持根留大马

大马超级富豪第1名:一改低调展现爱国情怀 郭鹤年坚持根留大马
Created 02/06/2014 - 09:08




Goodpack - Decent 2Q but could be better (DBSV)

STI : 3,038.71
BUY S$1.87
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 2.25
Decent 2Q but could be better

• 2Q14 net profit rose 12% y-o-y but slightly below on high employee benefit expenses
• Expect stronger 2H; new contracts for autoparts and SR rolling in
• Maintain BUY and S$2.25 TP

2Q could be better. 2Q14 (FYE Jun) results were slightly below due to higher than expected employee benefit expenses (+11% yo- y; +26% q-o-q). Revenue grew 10% y-o-y but was down 2% qo- q due to customers’ 2-week Christmas closure while ramp up of Singapore synthetic rubber (SR) plants to almost 100% was only effective in Dec. As a result, recurring net profit rose 12% y-o-y but was down 10.5% q-o-q.

Courts Asia -Hard slog recovery (CIMB)

Courts Asia
Current S$0.58
Target S$0.61
Hard slog recovery

Without the booming Malaysia credit sales of early FY13, a return to stronger profitability looks like a hard slog. 3Q/9M14 profits made up only 19%/62% of our full-year estimates and 20%/65% of consensus due to poor margins. 3Q showed 1) a sequential recovery in Malaysia, after credit sales were reined in earlier, but 2) a 13% qoq decline in Singapore sales, albeit from a 2Q when new Apple products had inflated sales. Singapore delinquencies are rising. Management is cautious and views the Singapore retail outlook as weak. It is more optimistic on Malaysia. We cut FY14-16 EPS by 13-16% to factor in lower margins as credit sales drift lower. Our residual income-based target price is lowered to S$0.61. We maintain a Hold rating in the absence of a recovery.

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: 4Q13 one-off items hit P&L (OCBC)

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust:
Fair value US$0.63
add: 12m dividend forecast US$0.05
versus: Current price US$0.66
4Q13 one-off items hit P&L

HPHT reported 4Q13 earnings results that were lower than ours and the street’s expectations due to one-off items: (1) concession to shipping lines after previous industrial action at HIT, (2) write-off of an upfront fee after the US$3.6b bank loan refinancing, and (3) exchange loss from the conversion of USD to HKD for repayment of bank loan for the ACT acquisition.

Dah Chong Hong -Earnings Could Have Bottomed Out in 2013 (UOBKH)

Dah Chong Hong Holdings (1828 HK)
Share Price HK$4.64
Target Price HK$5.00
Earnings Could Have Bottomed Out in 2013

DCH will post its 2013 results on 20 February. We expect 2013 net profit to drop by 25% yoy to HK$783m vs consensus estimate of HK$933m. The reporting of 2013 results may trigger a downgrade of 2014 consensus earnings. But we believe the 33% stock price drop over the last quarter should have factored in weak 2013 results. For 2014, we expect DCH’s profit to recover in line with sales recovery of Japanese cars and Bentley. Maintain HOLD but cut target price to HK$5.00. Entry price: HK$4.00.

CapitaMalls Asia: Steady data from Chinese malls (OCBC)

CapitaMalls Asia:

Steady data from Chinese malls

-4Q13 results in line
-Chinese mall data healthy
Fair value S$2.40
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.04
versus: Current price S$1.74
-Changi Jewel to open by FY18

4Q13 numbers within expectations
CapitaMalls Asia (CMA) reported 4Q13 PATMI of S$216.4m, which increased 17.1% YoY mainly due to contributions from Star Vista, four new malls in Japan and progressive recognition from Bedok Residences. Adjusting for one-time items and fair value gains, FY13 core PATMI cumulates to S$246.3m, forming 106% of our FY13 forecast and we judge this to be mostly in line. In terms of the topline, 4Q13 revenues came in at S$103.7m, down 8.7% YoY mainly due to lower leasing commission and project management fees from China. The group announced a final dividend of 1.75 Scents per share.
Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
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