Saturday, May 10, 2014

Singapore Strategy: Are sunny days here again?

Singapore Strategy: Are sunny days here again?

The Singapore market has outperformed some regional indices so far this year, and despite recent gains, we believe that valuations remain undemanding and below that of key regional markets, and with the added bonus of a decent dividend yield of 3.3%. Liquidity in the market remains healthy. Key risks include a slowdown in China and a prolonged decline in the local property market. Recent excitement in the local M&A scene indicates that valuations are not expensive, and firms with huge cash reserves are in a good position to buy assets or companies to realize synergies, extract values or grow organically. Other under-valued or not liquid stocks are also likely candidates for M&A. We believe key policy makers will remain generally pro-growth and that central banks will continue to adopt an accommodative stance. For the Singapore market, we deem a stock pick strategy is still preferred. We continue to be OVERWEIGHT the Oil & Gas and Healthcare sectors and selective quality blue chips and high yielding stocks.


STI’s outperformance in 2014
After a flat performance in 2013, the STI has finally stirred back to life and is now back above the 3200 level, after dipping below 3000 in Feb 2014. Singapore’s economic growth is likely to come in at the higher end of the government’s official range of 2-4%. Liquidity in the market remains healthy as seen from the gains in yield stocks. The S-REIT index has rebounded almost 10% from this year’s low despite general global trend of higher interest rates ahead.

Valuations are not excessive
Despite recent gains in 2014, valuation remains undemanding. The STI is currently trading at forward PERs of 14.4 FY14 earnings and 13.0 FY15 earnings, below key regional markets, and with dividend yield estimated at a very decent 3.3%.

China remains a key concern for Asian and Singapore firms
Key developments in China will continue to affect market sentiment in Asia, but we believe that China’s longer term growth is still intact after medium-term structural reforms. Optimism about the improvement in developed economies remains, as shown by the recovery in consumer confidence, and this will help to partially absorb the slack from any potential slowdown in demand from China. In Singapore, one key areas of concern is the expected slowdown in property sales and prices.

Singapore’s recent M&As – signaling valuations are not expensive
Recently, the market came alive with a series of acquisition and privatization announcements and potential deals (involving Hotel Properties Ltd, Olam, CapitaMalls Asia, etc.). There is a growing trend to acquire undervalued companies, signaling that current valuations are inexpensive, and firms with huge cash reserves are in a good position to buy assets or companies to realize synergies, extract values or grow organically. The current interest on property-related companies could be due to the present depressed market conditions for the property sector and most stocks are trading at discounts to RNAVs. Other under-valued or not liquid stocks are also likely candidates for M&A.

Overall, we expect key policy makers to remain generally pro-growth and that central banks will continue to adopt an accommodative stance. While developed economies are still in favour, for the Singapore market, we deem a stock pick strategy is still preferred. We continue to be OVERWEIGHT the Oil & Gas and Healthcare sectors and selective quality blue chips and high yielding stocks.




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: OCBC-Research,
Publish date: 08/05/14

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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