Saturday, February 8, 2014

Singapore viewed as defensive (CIMB)

We recently discussed our Singapore top picks with investors in Asia and Europe. On markets, we believe that after a rally has lasted almost five years, performance must come from stocks that have a clear, growth story. Our higher conviction stories are in the non-Index space. Investors are generally Overweight on Singapore, due to the defensiveness of its stocks, but for performance, they agreed that individual stock names matter more than the macro picture. Our end-2014 FSSTI target of 3,600, based on 14.4x CY15 P/E, remains unchanged. Our large-cap picks are DBS, FR, GLP, KEP and WIL. DELM, EZI, GPACK, MIDAS, OEL, SARIN and SILV are the conviction names.
What Happened
We spent part of Dec and most of Jan marketing to investors in Asia and Europe. We were Overweight on banks, commodities and capital goods and also emphasised on our non-index stock picks.  

What We Think
Investors are generally Overweight on Singapore, leaning on its defensive appeal. Banks appear to be the moderately favoured sector while property and telcos seem to be the consensus funding sectors. Investors generally agreed on the long banks, short ‘interest-rate sensitive’ calls, but were cognisant that developers had cheap valuations and will warrant attention if NAV discounts hit rock-bottom levels or if rate expectations change. Most did not think that catalysts for the property sector were forthcoming but accepted that office trends were at the bottom. Investors were more concerned about their Underweight position on SingTel, especially early in January when initial QE tapering did not cause further emerging markets’ weakness. In capital goods, while there were some discussion on why Keppel (too consensus) can still do well, interest was anchored in specific second-tier names. For plantations, investors were piqued by our bullish stance and noted that more brokers are now turning positive, even though the share prices do not show that investors are any convinced of the catalysts.  
What You Should Do
Despite the start of tapering in the US and the current EM fears, our stock recommendations have taken these developments into account and remain unchanged.  

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: CIMB-Research,
Publish date: 29/01/14

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
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