Saturday, February 8, 2014

Singapore viewed as defensive (CIMB)

We recently discussed our Singapore top picks with investors in Asia and Europe. On markets, we believe that after a rally has lasted almost five years, performance must come from stocks that have a clear, growth story. Our higher conviction stories are in the non-Index space. Investors are generally Overweight on Singapore, due to the defensiveness of its stocks, but for performance, they agreed that individual stock names matter more than the macro picture. Our end-2014 FSSTI target of 3,600, based on 14.4x CY15 P/E, remains unchanged. Our large-cap picks are DBS, FR, GLP, KEP and WIL. DELM, EZI, GPACK, MIDAS, OEL, SARIN and SILV are the conviction names.
 
What Happened
We spent part of Dec and most of Jan marketing to investors in Asia and Europe. We were Overweight on banks, commodities and capital goods and also emphasised on our non-index stock picks.  

 
What We Think
Investors are generally Overweight on Singapore, leaning on its defensive appeal. Banks appear to be the moderately favoured sector while property and telcos seem to be the consensus funding sectors. Investors generally agreed on the long banks, short ‘interest-rate sensitive’ calls, but were cognisant that developers had cheap valuations and will warrant attention if NAV discounts hit rock-bottom levels or if rate expectations change. Most did not think that catalysts for the property sector were forthcoming but accepted that office trends were at the bottom. Investors were more concerned about their Underweight position on SingTel, especially early in January when initial QE tapering did not cause further emerging markets’ weakness. In capital goods, while there were some discussion on why Keppel (too consensus) can still do well, interest was anchored in specific second-tier names. For plantations, investors were piqued by our bullish stance and noted that more brokers are now turning positive, even though the share prices do not show that investors are any convinced of the catalysts.  
 
What You Should Do
Despite the start of tapering in the US and the current EM fears, our stock recommendations have taken these developments into account and remain unchanged.  



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: CIMB-Research,
Publish date: 29/01/14

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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