Thursday, February 27, 2014

Neptune Orient Lines- It could have been worse (CIMB)

Neptune Orient Lines
Current S$1.01
Target S$1.10
It could have been worse

▊ NOL’s full-year core net loss of US$305m was in line at 99% of our expectation, and could have been much worse if it had not cut US$470m from its costs last year, as it replaced expensive long-term charters with newly delivered ships. The annual loss shrank slightly from the US$362m in 2012, with the yoy drop in average freight rates almost wholly offsetting the cost savings. We fine-tune our forecasts, and introduce our FY16 numbers. Our call remains a Hold, but we reduce the target price slightly as we lower the target multiple from 1.1x CY14 P/BV to 1.05x, still based on the average since 2012.

 
Highlights of FY13
NOL succeeded in reducing its unit costs by 7% in 2013, as it took delivery of 11 new ships (this excludes three new ships delivered but immediately chartered to MOL), which replaced eight older or smaller ships that were sold or scrapped, and the return of five expensive charter-ins. Unit costs also benefitted from the 8% yoy fall in bunker prices, but would have declined even more had NOL not experienced a 2.5% fall in volumes lifted. This had caused the headhaul utilisation to drop 2% pts yoy to 91% in 2013, as NOL’s average full-year capacity rose yoy by slightly less than 1%. However, the good work on the cost front was mostly consumed by the 7.6% yoy fall in average freight rates, with Asia-Europe, intra-Asia and transpacific rates all weaker compared to 2012.  
 
A profitable 2014 expected
NOL saved US$970m in 2012-13, and we forecast another US$260m in savings this year as NOL will take delivery of eight ships (82,000 teu in total, excluding two 14,000 teu ships to be chartered to MOL) that will replace 20 expensive, fuel-inefficient charters (totalling 119,000 teu). Although global containership supply growth will exceed demand growth in 2014 by around 1% pt or less, the gap is much narrower than the 1.7% pts unfavourable gap in 2013. As such, we think freight rates may still rise marginally this year; we assume a 2% yoy rate improvement for NOL, which will take NOL across to the black in 2014.  
 
More ship orders to come?
With OOIL likely to order 16,000 teu ships, we think that NOL may also do the same for delivery in 2016-17, in order to improve the competitive position of the G6 alliance in the Asia-Europe trade. These are not yet in our model.



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: CIMB-Research,
Publish date: 21/02/14

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock