Saturday, February 22, 2014

M'sia Property -Rocky Road Ahead (DBSV)

Property -Rocky Road Ahead
KLCI : 1,825.64

Slower sales as weaker demand meets rising supply; but house prices should hold up with cost-push
Risks lie in Iskandar high-end condos, KL office & small built-up hybrid segments
Prefer township developers & investment asset owners.
Top picks: MKH, E&O, WTM

Dark clouds looming. We expect 2014F property sales to decline by 5-10% dragged by slower volume although prices will likely hold up due to cost push (as seen in the past during periods of sharp spikes in inflation). House price growth may moderate to 3% p.a. (9M13: +12.5%) as rising new supply meets weaker demand. Sentiments should remain subdued (at least in 1H14) given recent tightening measures and inflationary pressures. Potential interest rate hike could dampen disposable income further (every +50bps, affordability -1.6ppt). While developers may hold back launches and offer more incentives which will eat into margins, earnings visibility should be intact given current large unbilled sales.


Watch out for pressure points. Rising building material costs and tight foreign labour supply could heighten execution risk and dampen developers’ margins (challenging to pass on to buyers amid softer demand). There is no property bubble for now but we fear an oversupply of KL office space, hybrid high-rise units and Iskandar Malaysia high-end condos. Government projects with high import content and low multiplier impact may also be delayed (but MRT lines 2 & 3 should proceed as planned).

Prefer township developers which should benefit from resilient demand for landed and affordable housing. Conglomerates and investment asset owners should also see earnings holding up. We view IOI Properties as the new sector bell-weather given dearth of large-cap entrepreneurial-driven developers. Sector P/RNAV is trading below historical mean which may have partly priced in potential headwinds, but it still lacks re-rating catalysts in the short-term. We cut TPs across the board (based on 40- 55% discount to RNAV) to factor in weaker sector outlook.

Top pick: MKH given large exposure to affordable housing and landed residential in Kajang-Semenyih growth corridor (beneficiary of upcoming MRT) along with strong earnings growth potential from rising plantation contribution. Our other top picks: E&O (potential strong re-rating from STP2 approval & Medini launch) and Wing Tai Malaysia (resilient earnings from retail & Penang mass residential). We’ve downgraded SP Setia to Fully Valued (from Hold due to heightened execution risk) and YTL Land to Hold (from Buy due to high exposure to high-end condos around KLCC).



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: DBSV-Research,
Publish date: 13/02/14

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock