Saturday, February 8, 2014

MISC -The only way is up (CIMB)

MISC Bhd
Current RM5.60
Target RM7.25
The only way is up

Crude tanker rates did spectacularly well this month as rates spiked 130-510% from their recent lows. Although rates are bound to correct once the temporary supply tightness subsides, the crude and chemical tanker markets now appear to be on a fundamental uptrend.

We increase our target price after removing the 30% discount we had earlier pegged on MISC's SOP due to brighter prospects for its petroleum and chemical segments. We think that all the bad news is already in the price, and structural as well as cyclical improvements will slowly materialise. Hence, we upgrade our call from Reduce to Add, with stronger offshore profits and diminishing liquid bulk losses serving as the key catalysts.


Crude tanker rates on fire
Petroleum tanker owners are smiling after a dismal 10M13 as rates spiked by 130-510% since October 2013. Weather disruptions, unrest in North Africa and robust chartering activity were the fuel behind the fire, but once these subside, rates may fall as quickly as the way they rose. Tanker earnings will nonetheless improve this year, thanks to the fiery rates in the early part of 2014. We believe tanker rates have found a bottom in 2013, with rates likely to inch even higher in 2015 as supply growth closely matches that of demand. On a longer term view, despite concerns of dwindling US crude imports amid rising energy independence, a sharp rise in tonne-miles is in store for the sector, as oil producers direct their exports away from the US and towards the demand centres in Asia's growing economies.

Chemical market to improve
Global chemical tanker fleet growth will likely moderate to 1.5% annually in 2014-16, much slower than the 7.1% annual fleet growth seen in 1996-2013. Chemical tanker owners are mostly optimistic about industry prospects, while customers are beginning to favour long-term contracts, suggesting that they too expect freight rates to rise. Coupled with an expected recovery for mature Western economies, rates will likely trend higher, albeit at a gradual pace.

Stronger offshore assets
We expect 31% earnings growth for MISC this year, led by stronger contributions from its offshore assets and diminishing losses from its petroleum and chemical tanker segments. Despite being in a structural decline, the LNG division may pose surprises if MISC manages to secure third-party contracts.



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: CIMB-Research,
Publish date: 27/01/14

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock