Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Singapore Strategy 2014 - Recovery adds spice to growth (DBSV)

Singapore Strategy
STI Index 3,167.43
2014 Outlook
■ Earnings growth to accelerate on external recovery
■ Rotation from yield plays to growth to gain momentum
■ Focus on global proxies and China beneficiaries
■ Wave of opportunities in oil and gas sector

Recovery optimism tainted by Asean uncertainties
Singapore equities will be underpinned by the recovery momentum in the US, and the anticipated shift out of recession in the Eurozone. In Asia, China’s GDP slowdown should also stabilise in 2014. However, optimism will be capped by the extent of QE tapering and the weak market sentiment for ASEAN. STI is likely to range trade as sentiment gyrates between optimism in recovery in developed markets and uncertainties within ASEAN. We peg a STI range of 2950 to 3350 in the coming months, which coincides quite closely with 12.33x (-1SD) to 13.9x (Ave) blended FY14/FY15 PE.


Singapore should outperform Asean peers
While Asia markets will still be impacted by the progression of QE tapering in the coming months, we expect Singapore equities to hold up better compared to most of her ASEAN peers. The combination of a strong current account balance, resilient SGD and low political risk should enable Singapore equities to continue outperforming other ASEAN markets. We expect the companies under our coverage to enjoy earnings growth acceleration in 2014. We see earnings (before EI) jumping 12.8% in 2014F compared with just 0.5% for 2013F.

From yield plays to growth
Key themes for investment are centred around external recovery and global cyclicals, supported by earnings growth drivers in the industrial, oil and gas sectors. As QE tapering progresses, expectations of a steepening yield curve reduces investors’ appetite for yield stocks. The rotation from yield sensitive sectors to growth stocks will gain momentum. As such, we Overweight Banks, Industrials, Oil and Gas, Consumer Services, Underweight Consumer Goods and REITS, and Neutral on Property and Telcos.

All about Recovery
With Europe and US accounting for 23% of Singapore’s exports, this will lift Singapore’s GDP to its potential growth rate of 4.0% in 2014. Proxies to global recoveries are Hutchison Port, Goodpack and Venture. With China’s outlook stabilising, beneficiaries of China’s reform efforts are Midas, Global Logistics and Osim. Domestic recovery proxies are Genting Singapore, Courts and OCBC.

Turnaround plays in oil and gas sectors
Rate recovery in the OSV market will drive a re-rating for the sector, benefitting vessel owners like Pacific Radiance, while Ezion will continue to thrive on its niche product offerings. Turnaround plays to watch out for in 2014 are Ezra and Vard; resolving their execution issues and a sustainable recovery could see both stocks re-rating. Keppel Corp’s order wins have surpassed expectations with more potential orders in the offing, while margins are recovering.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: DBSV-Research,
Publish date: 03/01/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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