Saturday, January 11, 2014

Malaysia-Solid execution, visible growth (DBSV)

Solid execution, visible growth
Support from sturdier global growth, low interest rates and ample liquidity
Overweight oil & gas, construction. Underweight telcos, consumer services
Key picks with solid execution, visible growth: Public Bank, SapuraKencana, Bumi Armada, IJM Corp
Buy small-mid caps with favourable risk-reward profiles: MKH, TSH Resources, Muhibbah Engineering

Supportive global growth environment. For 2014, we foresee support for the KLCI from slightly sturdier growth in key economies (US, Eurozone, China), low interest rates, and ample liquidity. This is partly offset by mounting cost pressures, leading to slower growth in domestic consumer spending and tighter margins. Continued capital outflow could further weigh down Malaysia Government bonds and Ringgit. Our year-end KLCI target is 1,930, based on 15x 2015 earnings.


Selective opportunities. Overweight fast growing Oil & Gas and Construction sectors. Underweight Telcos on valuation and Consumer Services given the challenging outlook.

Solid execution in delivering earnings. We favor stocks with the track record, ability and market positioning to deliver earnings in competitive environments: Public Bank and HLFG. Both have superb asset quality with gross NPL ratio below industry. Ride standout growth. Amid the foreseeable macro challenges, we project several segments to have relatively stronger growth.

Emerging global champions: We expect Oil & Gas sector  earnings to grow faster than others. Within the sector, SapuraKencana, relentless in its pursuit of growth, is poised for explosive growth driven by the Seadrill and Newfield acquisitions. Bumi Armada is emerging as a global player with the massive Kraken FPSO win.

Infrastructure growth: The Construction sector will also register among the strongest earnings growth in 2014. Our sector pick is IJM Corp. The West Coast Expressway will be a major boost to its various core businesses. The concession has achieved financial close and more than doubles the Group’s outstanding orderbook. Other sector picks: Gamuda (most leveraged MRT proxy) and MMC (significant discount to SOP).

Strong and visible growth mid-caps: Muhibbah Engineering is leveraging on its rare new Petronas fabrication license, while MKH and TSH Resources will see superior FFB growth propelled by young oil palm tree profiles.

Structural changes/M&A plays: Bursa Malaysia will benefit from a revamp in fee and cost structure. The potential sale of TA Enterprise’s broking business could be a re-rating catalyst for the stock.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: DBSV-Research,
Publish date: 08/01/14

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
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做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

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“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

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高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
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“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
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成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
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每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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