Thursday, January 9, 2014

2014 Strategy Outlook- It’s A Stock-picking Market (MKE)

2014 Strategy Outlook
FSSTI 3,167 (31 Dec 2013)
FSSTI target 3,500 (31 Dec 2014)
It’s A Stock-picking Market

 Stay selective. At 13.5x forward P/E and 1.4x forward P/BV, the Singapore market valuation looks modest from both the historical and regional perspectives. An improving macro outlook supports our view that the FSSTI would hit 3,500 by end-2014, based on 15x 2014E EPS or an implied P/BV of 1.6x, providing a 10.5% upside. We would recommend that investors stay selective, with aviation services, banks, healthcare and offshore and marine our preferred sectors.


A year of Fed tapering. The US Federal Reserve’s move to taper its quantitative easing programme will be the key feature of the year. This would eventually lead to higher interest rates, which would be positive for banks, especially DBS, but negative for the property sector as it could trigger a recalibration of overheated prices. While property cooling measures may be fine-tuned, we expect a soft approach that will hardly change the oversupply situation in 2015-2016. For exposure, we recommend CapitaMalls Asia (market leadership in Singapore’s retail scene and successful inroads into China) and Suntec REIT (strong DPU CAGR of 17.8% over 2013E-2015E). We would shun industrial property REITs such as Cache Logistics and Mapletree Logistics on fears of significant NAV erosion.

Events to watch out for. The upcoming Budget 2014 on 21 February could bring some good news to healthcare names like Raffles Medical Group and IHH Healthcare, as private medical services are made more accessible. The conclusion of the acquisition of Singapore Cruise Centre and the opening of the Singapore Sports Hub in April could renew interest in SATS. The opening of the ninth aircraft hangar and Trent XWB launch will be key milestones for SIA Engineering. The first parliamentary debate on a casino bill in Japan may rekindle interest in Genting Singapore, even if short-lived. We would advise investors to sell into strength. On the transportation front, there should be better clarity on fare adjustment and changes to the business models of bus and rail operations.

Offshore and marine likely to shine. The offshore and marine stocks should continue to bask in more order wins with our preferred picks being SembCorp Marine, Ezion, Mermaid Maritime and Nam Cheong. We are sceptical of a recovery in China’s shipbuilding sector and would recommend SELLs on Cosco and Yangzijiang.

Curbs on foreign labour inflow. Immigration policies are expected to remain tight in 2014. This will continue to push up labour costs amid a very tight employment market, boding ill for Sheng Siong and SMRT (we have a SELL on both counters). The SME sector, too, could suffer but a stronger economy may ease the pain, reducing risks to the banking sector.





Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: MKE-Research,
Publish date: 06/01/14

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock