Saturday, October 5, 2013

大马散装货运 干散货航运供过于求

大马散装货运 干散货航运供过于求
Created 10/04/2013 - 12:29


从9月份起,波罗的海干散货运价指数(Baltic Dry Index)飙升86%至2127点,创下21个月新高。



SGX Suspends Blumont, Liongold, Asiasons as Stocks Plunge

SGX Suspends Blumont, Liongold, Asiasons as Stocks Plunge

Singapore Exchange Ltd. (SGX), Southeast Asia’s biggest bourse operator, suspended the trading of Blumont (BLUM) Group Ltd., LionGold Corp. and Asiasons Capital Ltd. (ACAP) after shares of the commodity investors plunged.

Blumont, which invests in minerals and energy, tumbled 56 percent to 88 Singapore cents before trading was halted. It was the second-biggest decliner on the FTSE ST All-Share Index. (FSTAS) The company said the share losses prompted the termination of a deal to buy Australian coal producer Cokal Ltd.


来源:腾讯财经 2013-10-4

北京时间10月4日凌晨消息,量子基金联合创始人、著名投资人吉姆-罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)周四表示,“美国是世界历史上最大的债务国家,我们股市可能有非常非常大的涨幅,但是这不是基于现实的。我想提醒投资者们,你们应该知道自己是在一个傻瓜的天堂里,请千万小心,当大家都在高唱赞歌的时候,请记住,‘我见过这个场面的,我知道现在是时候跑路了’。”


郭鹤年通过 丰益国际(Wilmar International)发展油棕业

马来西亚首富郭鹤年业务遍布世界各地,他所从事的行业包括船务业、种植业、制造业、酒店业、影视业、零售业以及其他行业等,而种植业他则是通过他的旗舰公司--PPB集团(PPB Group)去落实。

由于PPB集团拥有丰益国际有限公司(Wilmar International Ltd)的股权,而后者又是油棕园种植面积世界第三大的种植公司,所以PPB集团也间接成为世界其中一家举足轻重的种植公司。

丰益国际是大马首富郭鹤年及其侄儿郭孔丰与印尼油棕王吴笙服(Martua Sitorus)联合创立于1991年,总部设在新加坡,如今已成为顶尖的农业公司。该公司是新加坡股票交易所之中市值最大的上市公司之一。

上市筹资扩展业务 亚航X(AirAsiaX)期希飞得更高




YTL Power : Yield compression (DBSV)

YTL Power
KLCI: 1,801.83
Price Target: 12-Month RM1.70
Yield compression

•Dividend cut to conserve cash for acquisition
•New acquisitions are crucial to cushion against earnings drop after expiry of Malaysian PPAs in 2015
•Maintain HOLD with TP of RM1.70

More challenging outlook. Operating outlook for YTLP will be more challenging over the next few years, due to rising capacity in Singapore’s electricity market that will eventually pressure margins and sales volumes. The lingering European crisis could also limit returns from Wessex upon the expiry of the current regulatory regime in 2015.

IOI Corporation: Launching MGO for Unico-Desa (MKE)

IOI Corporation
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: MYR5.39
Target price: MYR5.42 (unchanged)
Launching MGO for Unico-Desa

Neutral deal. IOI’s acquisition of a 39.55% stake in listed plantation group, Unico-Desa Plantations Bhd (UDP MK, MYR1.18, Not Rated) has triggered a MGO at MYR1.17/sh. We are Neutral on the pricing; at an implied MYR80,000 EV/planted ha, this is on par with the recent MYR76,600/ha price tag paid by Boustead (BOUS MK, NR) but above Felda Global’s (FGV MK; HOLD) acquisition of Pontian at MYR63,750/ ha. We expect muted short-term earnings enhancement to IOI (after borrowing costs) and maintain our earnings forecasts for now. Maintain HOLD with an unchanged TP of RM5.42 based on 19x 2014 PER.

Malaysian Bulk - Riding On High Waves?

Malaysian Bulk -
Price Target:1.70
Last Price:1.84
Riding On High Waves?

The Baltic Dry Bulk Index has  recently  surged due to  a  significant rise in Chinese iron ore imports. We do not expect sharp seasonal drops in shipping rates as  aggressive spot prices  have been locked in through forward freight agreements (FFAs). Moreover,  the gap between demand and  supply  is  narrowing.  Nonetheless,  we  are  downgrading  MBC  to SELL as its earnings are still expected to disappoint.

Khazanah denies eyeing 20% of Inari Amertron

Khazanah denies eyeing 20% of Inari Amertron
KUALA LUMPUR: Khazanah Nasional Bhd has denied it is looking at a 20% stake in Inari Amertron Bhd.

“The news report attributed to a stockbroker report on Khazanah taking a 20% stake in Inari Amertron in exchange for a stake in Silterra (M) Sdn Bhd is false and baseless,” a spokesperson for the sovereign fund said.

Inari Amertron vice-chairman Dr Tan Seng Chuan, however, declined to comment on the report at a press conference after its EGM, saying only the management had not been “approached by anyone from Khazanah”.

MPHB Capital : Insurance Company For Free, Anyone? (MKE)

MPHB Capital
Buy (new)
Share price: MYR1.51
Target price: MYR2.12 (new)
Insurance Company For Free, Anyone?

 40% upside, initiate with BUY. What MPHB Capital (MPHB Cap) provides exposure to is a profitable general insurance company with ROEs of 14-16% and 2,727 acres of land bank/properties where the full value has yet to be realized. The properties alone are valued at MYR1.30 per MPHB Cap share, MYR1.57 if we revise up the valuations for its Balik Pulau land, which implies that at MPHB Cap’s current share price of MYR1.51, investors are getting the general insurance for free. Our SOP value of MYR2.12 per share offers 40% upside and we initiate coverage with a BUY rating.

Leading malls expected to enjoy rental growth

Leading malls expected to enjoy rental growth

SUNWAY REIT Management Sdn Bhd CEO Datuk Jeffrey Ng Tiong Lip says the company will remain focused on retail with at least 60% retail exposure as measured by asset size, revenue or net property income (NPI) over the long term. The company manages Sunway REIT.

Ng says they are mindful of the market cycle and impending oversupply of retail space.

Tune Ins - Ahead Of Target

Tune Ins -
Price Target:2.40
Last Price:2.04
Ahead Of Target

Our  Strong  BUY  and  MYR2.40  FV  (22.0x  FY14F  EPS)  on  TIH  are premised  on:  i)  widening  travel  insurance  margins,  ii)  market expansion,  iii)  turnaround  of  its  general  insurance  subsidiary,  and  iv) tie-ups with more  airlines  and  online  providers. We  continue  to  like  its travel  business,  which  is  racing  ahead  of  its  minimum  20.0%  growth target, and the industry’s 10.0-15.0% growth expectations.

Instacom Group - Moving Up The Ranks

Instacom Group -
Price Target:0.51
Last Price:0.295
Moving Up The Ranks

We  initiate  coverage  on  Instacom  with  a  BUY  recommendation  and  FV of  MYR0.51.  The  company  is  a  major  beneficiary  of  the  rollout  of  LTE networks  and  USP  projects  in  East  Malaysia,  backed  by  a  decent orderbook  of  MYR300m.  Earnings  growth  is  likely  to  see  a  new  leg  up with the company venturing into the telco infra lease business. We like Instacom for its good earnings prospects and undemanding valuations.

曾渊沧@股友通讯录 2013 年09 月份

海峡时报指数在今年8 月底跌至2013 年的谷底之后回升,但是仍然无法超越7 月份的水平。9 月份的回升,很大的原因是投资者已开始消化了美国联邦储备局退市的忧虑。


到了9 月18 日,美国联储局正式开会,结果是出乎意料地什么也都没做,没有退市,不减买债金额,不加息,可是美股只兴奋了一天就回跌。

Growth with Continued Monetary Accomodation

Friday, October 4, 2013


Created 10/04/2013 - 17:13



国内商机庞大表现超越预期 Tune保险盈利看涨30%

国内商机庞大表现超越预期 Tune保险盈利看涨30%
Created 10/03/2013 - 12:19


BDI持续造好 内地航运业近喜远忧

BDI持续造好 内地航运业近喜远忧   [2013-10-04]    
比富达证券(香港)业务部副总经理 林振辉
 过去几个月,波罗的海干散货运价指数(Baltic Dry Index, BDI)持续造好,由七月份的1,000点左右大升逾1倍至9月底的2,003点。BDI指数由位于伦敦的波罗的海航交所发布,是衡量国际海运情况,反映国际间贸易的领先指数,同时也是航运业最主要的经济指标。尽管现时BDI指数处于两年来高位,总体上却仍在低谷徘徊。笔者认为,内地航运业短期也会跟随造好,但仍难言长期复苏。




证券推介:BDI倍升 首选太平洋航运

证券推介:BDI倍升 首选太平洋航运   [2013-10-04]

 过去三个月,波罗的海干散货运价指数(Baltic Dry Index, BDI)大幅上涨,由七月份的1,000点左右大升1倍至10月初的2,000点左右。BDI指数是航运业最主要的经济指标,指数大升说明国际贸易开始活跃,对航运需求上升。BDI指数主要是衡量干散货运输情况,而干散货运输主要是包括铁矿石、煤炭、粮食和水泥等上游初级产品的运输。本周笔者推介太平洋航运(2343),因受周期性旺季及内地经济复苏推动,公司下半年业务将明显转好,另外公司在业内竞争力强,加上估值较低,值得买入。

UOB: Khazanah to take 20pc stake in Inari

UOB: Khazanah to take 20pc stake in Inari
By Francis Fernandez

KUALA LUMPUR: Khazanah Nasional Bhd is poised to take a 20 per cent stake in Inari Amertron Bhd, Singapore-based UOB Kay Hian said in a private report to its tier one clients.
“The deal would see Inari placing out a 20 per cent stake to Khazanah in exchange for a stake in SilTerra Malaysia Sdn Bhd, a wafer fabrication facility that is 98 per cent owned by Khazanah,” UOB said in the report.

The report came a few days after Affin Research revised its target price for Inari from RM1.11 to RM1.70.

Amtek : Revenues closer to bottom, signs of demand recovery in many segments (CS)

Amtek Engineering Ltd.
Price (02 Oct 13 , S$) 0.47
TP (prev. TP S$) 0.56 (0.56)
Revenues closer to bottom, signs of demand recovery in many segments

● We hosted Ms. Sheila Ng (CFO and Deputy CEO) and Ms. Jocelin Soon (Deputy CFO) for lunch with investors.

● Management is keen to achieve a reversal in the revenue decline seen over the past two financial years which was driven by sustained weakness in end-demand in both the consumer and enterprise segments. The automation and cost saving initiatives implemented over the past couple of years should provide the additional boost to the bottom line when revenue growth returns.

Halcyon Agri Corp - Key Takeaways From Non Deal Roadshow (UOBKH)

Halcyon Agri Corp -
Share Price S$0.755
Target Price S$1.00
Key Takeaways From Non Deal Roadshow

Halcyon Agri Corp will reach its optimal midstream capacity by 2015 upon completion of its asset enhancements and recent M&As. It has taken its first step towards upstream expansion as part of its long-term story. Excellent execution of risk management model; encouraging CSR initiatives. Maintain BUY and target price of S$1.00.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding : Moving up the value chain (CIMB)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
Current S$1.10
Target S$1.25
Moving up the value chain

 YZJ is competing head-to-head with the Korean shipyards with its maiden capesize bulk carriers (208,000DWT) and large-sized containerships (10,000TEU) in the latest slew of orders worth US$871m.

The 10,000TEU containerships are likely to be options exercised by Seaspan (estimated at US$85m-90m/vessel), while the customer for the four capesize bulk carriers has not been disclosed. YTD order wins reached US$2.1bn, which is in line with our US$2.5bn target. Maintain Outperform with a target price still based on 1.4x CY13 P/BV, 1 s.d. below its 5-year mean. More shipbuilding orders are catalysts.

XMH : Turbocharged engines of growth (NRA)

XMH Holdings.
Current Price S$0.41
Fair Value S$0.49
Turbocharged engines of growth

 Earnings below expectations. 1Q14 net profit of S$2.7m was 9% below our expectations, mainly due to lower-than-expected revenues from its distribution business segment.

 Maintain forecasts and fair value. Despite earnings just slightly below our forecasts, we believe the group should be able to make up for it in the next few quarters with its strong order book of S$70m as at 1Q14. Newly acquired Mech-Power Generator Group (MPG) will begin contributing meaningfully from 3Q14. We maintain our fair value at 49 cts, pegged to 12x FY14 PER. Potential catalyst could include another acquisition to widen its production range. We continue to like the group's stable cash generating business and consistent dividend pay-out. We maintain our Overweight recommendation.

曾淵滄專欄 04.10.13:利息低企窮人難捱




Wilmar International: Coming Up Roses (MKE)

Wilmar International
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD3.19
Target price: SGD4.52 (from SGD4.60)
Coming Up Roses

 Discount looks overdone, reiterate BUY. We continue to like Wilmar for its fully-integrated and well-diversified agri-business model, dominant global market positions in palm oil plantation/processing and soybean crushing, as well as its foothold in China and India, two of the most important consumer markets in the world. We see three key catalysts for the stock: (1) margin stabilisation in the Oilseeds & Grains (O&G) division, (2) low CPO price environment, and (3) structural improvement to group ROA on rationalised asset allocation. We thus argue that the stock’s current deep valuation discount to its historical mean is too excessive and reiterate our BUY call with a target price SGD4.52, implying 42% upside from the current levels.

Hi-P International : Uncertainty rising (DBSV)

Hi-P International
HOLD S$0.76
STI : 3,181.50
(Downgrade from BUY)
Price Target : 12-month S$ 0.65 (Prev S$ 0.97)
Uncertainty rising

• Customer demand falling short on weaker than expected reception to 5C iPhones and rising stockpiles
• Expect 3Q to be on track but momentum likely to fizzle out, thus weakening the outlook for 4Q and even FY14
• Downgrade to Hold, TP cut to S$0.65

Pan United : Earnings driver from one of China’s top ten ports (UOBKH)

Pan United
Share Price S$0.90
Target Price S$1.25
Earnings driver from one of China’s top ten ports

• Maintain BUY and target price of S$1.25.
• We met with management recently to get an update on their plans for Changshu Xinghua Port (CXP) after completing the acquisition of an additional stake in the port.

Thursday, October 3, 2013







价格合理协同效应 IOI收购案长期获利




恒地買愛股 四叔李兆基留後着



Frasers Commercial Trust : Minimal dilution impact from CPPU conversion (CIMB)

Frasers Commercial Trust
Current S$1.25
Target S$1.45
Minimal dilution impact from CPPU conversion

Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) recently announced that 9.37m new ordinary units have been issued following the conversion of 11.1m Series A CPPUs. The conversion enlarges FCOT’s share base by c. 1.4%, which will result in marginal dilution for existing shareholders.

As such, we lowered our FY13-15 DPU estimates by around 1.4% to account for the slightly larger share base. We maintain our Outperform rating and see catalysts from the additional hotel GFA at China Square Central, while lowering our target price to S$1.45 to reflect the slight dilution.

Noble Group Ltd: X2 JV will yield long-term benefits (OCBC)

Noble Group Ltd:
Fair value S$0.76
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.030
versus: Current price S$0.930

X2 JV will yield long-term benefits
• US$500m investment
• Focus on logistics services
• SELL as near-term headwind persists

Noble Group (Noble) has announced that it has agreed to invest in a newly established private mining venture – X2 Resources – where Noble, X2, TPG will each put in US$500m. Under the agreement, Noble will be X2 Resources’ preferred marketer and provider of supply chain management (SCM) and logistics services, which is in line with its strategy to focus on its core competence as a supply chain manager.

Rotary Engineering : Earnings Recovery Likely To Drive Share Price Higher (UOBKH)

Rotary Engineering
Share Price S$0.590
Target Price S$0.880
Earnings Recovery Likely To Drive Share Price Higher

We initiate coverage with a BUY with a target price of S$0.88, representing a 49.1% upside. Rotary Engineering (Rotary) is one of the region’s leading oil and gas infrastructure service company, offering extensive engineering design, procurement, and construction (EPC) services to oil companies such as Shell, Chevron, Exxon Mobil and PetroChina. With a strong orderbook of S$1.0b, Rotary is likely to enjoy good earnings visibility over the next 24 months. Dividends are also likely to recover in 2013 and 2014 from a low of 0.5 S cents per share in 2012, providing a dividend yield of 2.6% and 5.6% respectively.

Overseas Union Enterprise : Yet Another Special Dividend In Sight (UOBKH)

Overseas Union Enterprise
Share Price S$2.59
Target Price S$3.57
Yet Another Special Dividend In Sight

OUE is exploring the listing of a commercial REIT with OUE Bayfront included in the initial portfolio, which could result in another similar special dividend as the Hospitality REIT (10-20 S cents/share). The impact from the sale of its China hotels is minimal. We maintain BUY with a reduced target of S$3.57 based on 20% to its revised RNAV of S$4.46, factoring in adjustments for special dividends and office property values.

China Merchants Hldgs (Pacific) : Divests NZ property business for HK$356m (DBSV)

China Merchants Hldgs (Pacific)
BUY S$0.86
STI : 3,210.18
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.07
Divests NZ property business for HK$356m

China Merchants Holdings Pacific announced on Friday that it has entered into a conditional sale and purchase agreement to sell its entire New Zealand property business to sister company China Merchants Properties Development Ltd for HK$356m.

The sale is targeted for completion in 4Q13, and the Group will realise a gain of c. HK$111m on its P&L. The divestment and consideration amount (which is about 7Scts per share) is in line with our expectations and will help the Group to focus on its core toll road business, while improving its balance sheet slightly.

曾淵滄專欄 03.10.2013:迷你直通車有作為




Sheng Siong Group: No new stores not a concern (OCBC)

Sheng Siong Group:
Fair value S$0.78
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.02
versus: Current price S$0.66

No new stores not a concern
• 3Q13 results should still show improvement
• Margin stability expected
• Conducive macro environment remains

Although 3Q13 is coming to a close, we are unconcerned by the lack of new store additions by Sheng Siong Group (SSG). While this development means that SSG will be unable to achieve its 10% gross floor area target for the year,

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: Refinancing an important boost

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust:
Fair value US$0.84
add: 12m dividend forecast US$0.06
versus: Current price US$0.79

Refinancing an important boost
• 9% price increase following initiation
• Interest rate cost of new debt at ~1.5%
• Raise FV to US$0.84

According to Dow Jones, Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT) has secured a US$3.6b refinancing loan which comprises three tranches – a US$1b one-year loan, a US$1.6b three-year loan and a US$1b five-year loan. The one-year tranche is at an interest rate of 0.6% above Libor, while the three-year and five-year tranches are 1.1% and 1.4% above Libor respectively.

Wednesday, October 2, 2013


Created 10/02/2013 - 10:53



玉楼金阙:如何长久? (5)杨忠礼电力退场应惠己及人

玉楼金阙:如何长久? (5)杨忠礼电力退场应惠己及人
Created 10/02/2013 - 10:04



Protasco extends acquisition timeline for O&G firm

Protasco extends acquisition timeline for O&G firm
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Charlotte Chong of    
Wednesday, 02 October 2013 10:30

KAJANG: PROTASCO BHD [] is extending its acquisition timeline for Indonesian oil and gas firm PT Anglo Slavic Indonesia (PTI ASI) from Sept 30 to March 31, 2014, said group managing director Datuk Chong Ket Pen.

He said after the EGM yesterday that the vendor, PT Anglo Slavic Utama (PT ASU), had requested an extension to fulfil its “legal duty”, and new conditions laid down by Protasco have to be complied with by March 31 next year.

个人信贷限10年还清 非银行金融机构恐掀削价战

个人信贷限10年还清 非银行金融机构恐掀削价战
Created 10/02/2013 - 11:03



Nam Cheong : Cruising into a record-breaking year (DBSV)

Nam Cheong Ltd:
BUY; S$0.28;
Cruising into a record-breaking year
Price Target: 12-month S$0.36

•Vessel sales contracts worth US$120m secured
•First direct sales to Latin American customer
•FY13 vessel sales set to surpass FY12 record levels
•Maintain BUY with TP of S$0.36

Four PSVs sold to a new customer in Latin America. Nam Cheong announced a significant vessel sales contract this morning worth US$120m for four Platform Supply Vessels to be delivered in FY14. The customer is an emerging offshore marine services company based in Latin America, and this is Nam Cheong's first direct sale to this region, though its vessels have been previously deployed there by other customers. These 3,200 dwt PSVs are high specs vessels with DNV-class and equipped with DP-2 system and diesel-electric propulsion. At US$30m each, the pricing is within expectations.    

China Shipyards : The strong gets stronger (DBSV)

China Shipyards
The strong gets stronger
•Yangzijiang is emerging as a stronger player
•Cosco's diversified product range is a drag on earnings
•Rongsheng's recovery path is long and bumpy
•Reiterate BUY on Yangzijiang with imminent catalyst from contract wins

Reasons for Yangzijiang's success. Our visits to a number of leading shipyards in Jiangsu point to contrasting outlook.  The strength of Yangzijiang‘s management foresight, prudent strategy, timely delivery of quality  products, dedicated top and middle management, well trained skilled labour force,  and strong balance sheet have positioned Yangzijiang as the most well run, cost efficient and profitable private shipbuilder in China.

Wilmar International : Getting Sweeter (UOBKH)

Wilmar International
Share Price S$3.17
Target Price S$3.80
Getting Sweeter

The sugar division will be the growth focus for Wilmar which is targeting new emerging markets Africa and Indochina. Growth from the sugar division is expected to outshine soybean crushing operations in China, which are still in overcapacity and putting pressure on margins. Palm operations should perform in line with expectation with the upstream affected by lower ASP and downstream driven by volume growth. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$3.80.

Q&M Dental :A Gem In More Ways Than One (MKE)

Q&M Dental Group
Buy (new)
Share price: SGD0.305
Target price: SGD0.41 (new)
A Gem In More Ways Than One

Initiate with BUY, TP of SGD0.41. Going to the dentist is no longer the horror experience it used to be. In fact, more and more people are going for regular dental visits, which is why we like Singapore dental player Q&M’s growth prospects, especially on the regional front. We initiate with a SGD0.41 TP which implies 34% upside (pegged at 34x FY14F PER, a 28% discount to its global peers and 0.5 standard deviation below its historical mean) but there is potential for greater growth potential and target price upside if its acquisition strategy bears fruit, especially in China. From a dominant position at home, it is expanding into China and Malaysia via acquisitions, both small and large.

Courts Asia: NDR Feedback (MKE)

Courts Asia
Share price: SGD0.755
Target price: SGD1.06 (from SGD1.15)
NDR Feedback

Negatives factored in. We hosted a NDR with Courts to confirm our views on the retail scene in Singapore and Malaysia. We believe the share price has already priced in overall weakness in demand in the past quarter. We have cut our FY14F earnings by a further 8% to account for the unexpected closure of JEM in Sep, which was beyond Courts’ control.

曾淵滄專欄 02.10.2013:美國兩黨舊戲重演




Rickmers Maritime Trust: NDR Feedback (MKE)

Rickmers Maritime Trust
Not Rated
Share price: SGD0.285
NDR Feedback

Renewed interest in the shipping sector. The recent rally in shipping counters has piqued interest in the shipping industry. However, we are hesitant to call a bottom yet as we question the sustainability of this recovery. Hence, we hosted Mr. Thomas Preben Hansen and Mr. Gerard Low from Rickmers Trust Management, Trustee-Manager of Rickmers Maritime (RMT) on a one day road show, where they introduced their Trust and shared valuable insights on latest industry trends.

Frasers Commercial Trust: On accelerated growth mode (OCBC)

Frasers Commercial Trust:
Fair value S$1.45
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.079
versus: Current price S$1.26

On accelerated growth mode
• Uplift from interest and distribution savings
• Higher secured rentals expected
• Positive leasing activity in 3Q13

Frasers Commercial Trust (FCOT) has essentially locked in robust growth for FY14 with lower interest costs and the redemption of its 321.9m Series A Convertible Perpetual Preferred Units (CPPUs) this year. In addition, we expect FCOT to gain from its growth initiatives embarked over the past year.

Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Prof Chan Yan Chong’s Column 27.09.13

Stock markets plunged in Hong Kong and Singapore after news of a possible attack on Syria by the US and its allies spread. The Americans had invaded Afghanistan and Iraq incurring lots of casualties but with no positive results at the end of the day hence Syria, with no natural resources such as oil and also not a country tagged with the label of a terrorist, is not an “attractive target” for President Obama.

The chaos in Syria has been ongoing for almost a year and, thus, the Americans would have attacked the country if it had wanted to. When the Americans toppled Gaddafi last year, the US ambassador to Libya was murdered and that could have stopped the Americans from attacking Egypt when Mubarak was overthrown last year. Now that the pro-US military government in Egypt has been criticised by the world, the Americans have no choice but to join in the reprimand and nothing more than that.  There is no real reason for the US to attack Syria for fear of turning the regime into a terrorist-controlled entity so it has been a “reprimand” at the very best from the outset.


Created 10/01/2013 - 17:27

興業表示,雖然管理層早前表示將在第二季推出類似產品,減輕國行在今年7月將個人貸款攤還頂限限制在10年內造成的影響,惟至今仍無消息面市,反觀主要競爭對手人民銀行(Bank Rakyat),卻已經推出改革版新產品。



Created 09/30/2013 - 17:22



Protasco returns to Libya

Protasco returns to Libya
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Charlotte Chong of    
Tuesday, 01 October 2013 12:13

KUALA LUMPUR (Oct 1): PROTASCO BHD [] has returned to Libya and the builder is planning to resume its infrastructure work there this month, said group managing director Datuk Chong Ket Pen.

Chong said Protasco had left the North African country in 2011. Today, he told reporters after the company's extraordinary general meeting that the Libyan government has made its first payment to Protasco for the company to restart work there.

Ship orderbook build up worrying (CIMB)

Ship orderbook build up worrying
Over the past few months, container liners have ordered significant amounts of tonnage, with CSCL, UASC and MSC joining Maersk in the 18,000 teu stakes. Our expectations of balance between effective supply and demand growth in 2015 is now at risk of being derailed.

 We maintain our sector Neutral call with our top Outperform picks in OOIL and SITC given their relative defensiveness in a volatile sector. CSCL remains Neutral, while NOL is an Underperform. We have not changed our forecasts or target prices in this report. Freight rates and share prices may rise closer to year end with seasonal restocking.

IJM Plantations : Hold for long-term growth (DBSV)

IJM Plantations
KLCI: 1,792.48
Price Target: 12-Month RM3.30 (Prev RM3.30)
Hold for long-term growth

• Expect 2QFY14 earnings recovery on higher FFB output
• New planting to slow down; but output is ramping up in Indonesian maturing estates
• HOLD rating maintained with RM3.34 TP

Near-term rebound. We expect IJMP’s 2QFY14 earnings to improve significantly from the lackluster 1QFY14 performance, which was dragged by higher upkeep cost, overheads and inventory reduction. We understand that the inventory reduction exercise is ongoing, as its current stock level of 14k MT is still higher than normalised level of 10k MT. However, seasonally strong harvest during the quarter is likely to drive 2QFY14 earnings growth of 135% q-o-q.

Golden Agri Resources : Improving outlook (DBSV)

Golden Agri Resources
STI: 3,211.75
Price Target: 12-month S$0.48 (Prev S$0.45)
Improving outlook

• FY13F-15F earnings raised by 3-12% on higher expected 2H13 CPO output, weaker Rupiah; partly offset by lower CPO ASP
• Expansion target cut by 33%; as 1H13 achievement looks too low
• Acquisition of 16k ha and investment in Verdant Fund still on target for completion in 2H13
• NOT RATED. Fair value is adjusted to S$0.48

Earnings revised up. We raised FY13F/14F/15F earnings by 3%/8%/12%. We are slightly more optimistic on 2H13 output, which should account for c.60% of its full year forecast.

First Resources : Adding value from biodiesel (DBSV)

First Resources
BUY S$1.875
STI: 3,211.75
Price Target: 12-month S$2.19 (Prev S$2.15)
Adding value from biodiesel

• FY13F-15F earnings lowered by -1% to +6% on cuts in CPO ASP, weaker Rupiah
• FR to continue producing biodiesel for domestic sales, given higher mandatory blends in Indonesia
• BUY for 17% upside. We believe the market has yet to price in biodiesel margin contribution
• Risk lies in opaque forward contracts

Rupiah depreciation confers slight benefit. We tweaked FR’s FY13F/14F/15F net profits by -1%/+6%/+6% ; as we impute lower CPO ASP, weaker Rupiah exchange rate and higher minimum wages next year. Lower spot prices (in USD terms) may drag overall ASP, despite higher prices from remaining forward contracts. This should partly offset benefits from lower Rupiah costs. Nevertheless, there is upside in earnings, as we now impute domestic biodiesel sales from FY14F (vs. zero previously).

Bumitama Agri : More attractive now (DBSV)

Bumitama Agri
BUY S$0.98
STI : 3,211.75
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.26 (Prev S$ 1.20)
More attractive now

• FY13F/14F/15F earnings revised by -5%/+4%/+9% on weaker Rupiah and changes in CPO prices
• Rising maturity, CPO yields, weak Rupiah offset prospective jump in labour costs
• Bumitama (BAL) remains on target for 13k ha p.a. expansion through end FY14F
• Most undervalued counter in our universe. Reiterating BUY call for 29% upside

More earnings upside next year. Next year’s strong volume growth, higher ASP (thanks to weak Rupiah) would be partly offset prospective jump in minimum wage. BAL is one of only a few counters with positive earnings growth this year; and we expect 29% earnings CAGR between FY12 and FY15F. Reduction in FY13F earnings is due to higher USD borrowing costs in Rupiah terms.

Wilmar International : Lacking near-term catalysts (DBSV)

Wilmar International
HOLD S$3.26
STI: 3,211.75
Price Target: 12 months S$3.53 (Prev S$3.46)
Lacking near-term catalysts

• Cuts in soybean oil and palm oil prices reduce Oilseeds & Grains M&P, Plantations and Consumer pretax
• But Palm & Lauric M&P pretax margin is raised on better-than-expected YTD performance
• Beneficiary of Indonesia’s higher biodiesel mandatory blend
• HOLD for 8% upside; collect on weakness

Plantation : Bottom of the cycle (DBSV)

Bottom of the cycle
• Global palm oil stockpile is at one-year low on stronger-than-expected demand, despite global slowdown
• Near-term weakness in CPO prices may not drag planters much, given output, earnings recoveries
• CY13F/14F/15F CPO prices adjusted -4%/-10%/-11% in USD, 0%/+1%/-1% in MYR. Beware of upside risks from FY16F, as supply growth decelerates
• Multi-year CPO price gain from here. Top BUYs: AALI, BAL, IFAR (upgraded), FR, TSH (upgraded), IOI

Darkest before dawn. Global palm oil output was mostly lower-than-expected in 1HCY13, and we expect a strong seasonal pick up during the Sep-Nov13 harvests. Palm oil may have partly priced-in this prospect, as end-Aug13 global palm oil inventory is already at one-year low. By year-end, we expect global palm oil stockpile to fall to 21.4% of consumption from 22.6% as at end-Dec12, and declining towards 20.2% by end-Dec14.

Monday, September 30, 2013

Shipping industry not out of danger yet: Analyst

Despite hopes that global trade levels are recovering, it could take some time for the shipping industry's chronic overcapacity to improve, an industry expert warned.

The shipping industry has been through rough waters during the economic crisis, with a decline in global demand resulting in a substantial capacity glut – especially on the Asia-Europe route. This hit the shipping lines' revenue hard: the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -- which tracks day freight rates for dry bulk shippers – fell to a 26-year low in 2012.

However, this year has seen signs of a recovery on the back of global economies returning slowly to growth, rising consumer confidence and a rebound in Chinese commodity demand. As such, the BDI has risen almost 200 percent this year.

亚洲新兴国 笑傲直销业

亚洲新兴国 笑傲直销业
Created 09/30/2013 - 10:54




Created 09/30/2013 - 12:27






Koh Brothers: Bolstering Growth Backed By Strong Accolades And Track Record

Koh Brothers: Bolstering Growth Backed By Strong Accolades And Track Record
By Nicholas Tan

Ever been to the Marina Barrage for a family outing or strolled along the 4.2 kilometres man-made waterway at Punggol? You will be marvelled by the beauty of these new areas of interest, which have provided Singaporeans with another new area for recreation and leisure. It was built by our home-grown construction firm Koh Brothers Group, whom has walked hand-in-hand and grew with our nation over the past four decades.

SPH: Yield attractions (DBSV)

BUY S$4.10;
Yield attractions;
Price Target : 12-month S$ 4.53 (Prev S$ 4.75)
By: Andy SIM  CFA +65 6398 7969;

•Expect final/special DPS of 16Scts with payout in Dec, equating to 4% yield for a c.10-week period
•Muted earnings priced in; rebound likely with recent upward GDP revisions
•Financials can comfortably support another 20 to 30 Scts/share payout, on top of 22 Scts in FY14F
•Reiterate BUY, TP revised to S$4.53

UMS Holdings: Major Event Opens Up Opportunities (DMG)

UMS Holdings: Major Event Opens Up Opportunities
(BUY, SGD0.52, TP: SGD0.71)

We believe Applied Materials (AMAT)’s acquisition of Tokyo Electron Ltd (TEL) will make it a dominant industry player, which will in turn benefit its suppliers. While we do not expect UMS to immediately gain from this, we see it as the sole Singapore proxy to ride on this landscape-changing event. Maintain BUY, with our DCF-based TP unchanged at SGD0.71 (WACC: 10.9%, terminal growth: 0%).

Hutchison Port Hldgs Trust : ARising Tide LiŌsHPHT(AM)

Hutchison Port Hldgs Trust
ARising Tide LiŌsHPHT

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT) is up 6.1% following our previous update on 31st July 2013. Positive economic data out of China and the US are likely to have catalyzed the recent run-up in its share price. While an improving macro outlook would augur well for HPHT, we also perceive its successful refinancing as a positive development. We raise our TP to US$0.865 and reiterate BUY.

麥嘉華(Marc Faber)筆記 30.09.13:孳息看跌 美債寧買勿沽





文: 彭博社 (译:麦美莹) 2013年09月27日 展望

美国农业部(USDA)透露,印尼的棕油(最普遍的植物油)存量将从2013年尾增加66%至2014年尾达到300万公吨。USDA的数据显示,环球出产的9种植物油,包括大豆油、花生油及棕油等将会增加4.3%至1亿6,730万吨。戈德瑞国际(Godrej International)的一名董事Dorab Mistry说,至明年1月,期货可能下跌多达13%至每吨2,000令吉(624美元),是自2009年最低的价格。

曾淵滄專欄 30.09.13:長和售產陸續有來




Aviation : More of 2013 in 2014? (CIMB)

 More of 2013 in 2014?
We recently met with AirAsia and MAS to discuss the operating and competitive environment in Malaysia. We found out that MAS was determined to stay relevant as its competitors expanded, suggesting that the weak yield environment of 2013 could extend into 2014.

 As such, we reduce EPS estimates and target prices for AirAsia and AAX. AirAsia remains an Outperform while we downgrade AAX to a Neutral from Outperform as it is very sensitive to yield pressure. We stay Underperform on MAS. Our top pick MAHB remains an Outperform as a pure volume play, with forecasts and target price raised. We retain our Overweight sector call.

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding : Share Price S$1.12 Target Price S$1.32(UOBKH)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
Share Price S$1.12
Target Price S$1.32
Share Price S$1.12
Target Price S$1.32

We visited YZJ’s New Yangzi and Xinfu yards and attended the launch ceremony of YZJ’s first 10,000TEU containership. We believe it is a milestone for YZJ who has the potential to build larger containerships and compete with leading Korean yards. Its 2013 order target of US$2.5b is well achievable and the recent pick-up in newbuild prices is positive for YZJ. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$1.32.

Sunday, September 29, 2013

PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 26.09.2013 Market Strategy

AirAsia : Dragged into the trench (CIMB)

AirAsia Bhd
Current RM2.65
Target RM3.05
Dragged into the trench

AirAsia was not spared from the aggressive pricing set by MAS and Malindo this year, and has had to lower its fares in order to fill up its planes. AirAsia is nonetheless a well-run airline with a unit cost far below the rest, allowing it to weather the storm best.

We lower our 2013-15 forecasts on expected weaker yields. While the near-term outlook for AirAsia will be challenging due to MAS‟s continued heavy discounting, valuations are now reflective of the risks. We maintain our Outperform call, and roll over our target price basis from 11X CY14 P/E to CY15 (sector average). If MAS reverses its aggressive pricing strategy in late-2014, a major re-rating catalyst would emerge.

AirAsia X : Competition goes global(CIMB)

AirAsia X
Current RM1.14
Target RM1.23

MAS is expanding capacity heavily throughout the Asia Pacific region after withdrawing its long-haul flights last year. This is where AAX plies its trade and MAS's unwelcome capacity injections have hit yields. Separately, its Thai AAX venture may produce near-term losses.

We cut 2013-15 forecasts by 26-36% after reducing our yield assumptions. Margins are currently very thin, so the carrier is especially sensitive to small changes in yield and exchange rate assumptions. We downgrade AAX from Outperform to Neutral. Our target price is now based on 11x CY15 P/E (sector average) vs. SOP previously that included the valuation of its future Bali hub which we have now removed.

Malaysian Airline System : Strategy to persist in 2014(CIMB)

Malaysian Airline System
Current RM0.33
Target RM0.17
Strategy to persist in 2014

MAS has been embarking on an expansion spree this year in order to improve its fleet and personnel utilisation. This came at the expense of yields, which MAS seemed unperturbed by as the carrier seeks to earn every incremental dollar it can from its fixed cost base.

We adjust our FY13-15 forecasts by -4% to 6% for housekeeping matters. We see continued losses at MAS at least for the next three years, with losses potentially widening even further in 2014 on the back of a weaker ringgit, which serves as a key de-rating catalyst. Our target price is based on an unchanged CY14 P/BV of 1x. Maintain Underperform.

Supermax : Caught up with the peers (TA)

Supermax Corporation
12-month upside potential
Previous target price 2.10
Revised target price 2.75
Current price (as at 17 Sep) 2.73

 Caught up with the peers
Supermax’s share price has done very well over the last 2 months, appreciating 30% in a catch-up play. With its share price appreciating 43% YTD, we believe the catch up play has run its course. While we downgrade the glove sector from overweight to NEUTRAL following its stellar performance YTD, we take this opportunity to raise Supermax’s target P/E from 10x to 13x, in tandem with our P/E upgrade for our sector top pick, Kossan. This implies an approximately 20% valuation discount to both Top Glove and Kossan’s target P/E, given its lower earnings growth (3-year CAGR of 10.5%). All in, we maintain our NEUTRAL call on Supermax with a revised TP of RM2.75 (+30.9%), based on 13x 12-month forward P/E.

Sunway REIT sure assets will exceed RM7b by 2015

Sunway REIT sure assets will exceed RM7b by 2015

PETALING JAYA: Sunway REIT, Malaysia's second largest real estate investment trust, is confident its total assets under management will exceed RM7 billion by 2015.

"There's another RM3 billion in pipeline assets and third-party acquisitions," Sunway REIT Management Sdn Bhd chief executive officer Datuk Jeffrey Ng said after the company's investor meeting here yesterday.

Listed on Bursa Malaysia's Main Market in 2010, Sunway REIT manages properties in the retail and hospitality space in Penang, Perak, Selangor and Kuala Lumpur, valued at RM5.18 billion.


文: 汤森路透 (译:伍丽芳) 2013年09月25日 汤森路透

新加坡已成为亚洲富裕及有名之士的乐园,它拥有许多吸引人的设施与活动,包括高级俱乐部、由米其林(Michelin)星级厨师坐镇的餐厅及世界唯一的Formula One (F1)夜间赛事等。

拥有新加坡滨海湾金沙(Marina Bay Sands, MBS)赌场的金沙集团(Las Vegas Sands Corporation)表示,其酒店(共有2,500间客房)已客满,而它十分希望在其3个地标性大楼附近增建度假酒店与会议设施。


Created 09/25/2013 - 17:30




文: 陈挚文 (译:杨佳文) 2013年09月27日 企业摘要
你曾举家到滨海堤坝(Marina Barrage)出游,或者在全长4.2公里的榜鹅水道(Punggol Waterway)漫步吗?这两个风景怡人、适合聚会的新去处,都是由本地建筑企业许兄弟集团建造。在过去的四十多年来,许兄弟集团一直都与新加坡携手并进,共同成长。

本地建筑企业许兄弟集团(Koh Brothers)成立已有47年,在经历了一次又一次的经济危机和衰退后,公司始终屹立不倒,其业务也不断茁壮成长。如今,公司已是本地建筑、房地产发展和专业工程领域中的知名业者,以打造新加坡的景观而闻名。

曾淵滄教路 24.09.13 : 退市無期 高息股重現吸引力

退市無期 高息股重現吸引力



前瞻指引失效!? Fed引爆誠信危機!?

Oldtown : All cylinders fired up for FMCG (Alliance)

12-month upside potential
Target price 3.03
Current price (as at 12 Sep) 2.46
All cylinders fired up for FMCG

 Following yesterday’s analyst briefing, our conviction on Oldtown’s growth prospect is reaffirmed as the new FMCG plant has been fully commissioned in July 2013 which will underpin this segment’s strong earnings growth going forward. Furthermore, the company’s potential move to distribute its products via a B-to-C e-commerce site in China will further enhance its growth prospect. Hence, we reiterate our BUY call on Oldtown, with an unchanged TP of RM3.03, based on 18x 12-month forward P/E. We remain positive on its long term prospects, in particular the potential contribution from China market.

Rubber Gloves: Still Riding On Nitrile (MKE)

Rubber Gloves
Still Riding On Nitrile

 Downgrade to NEUTRAL. PER valuations of glove stocks have re-rated significantly from 8-16x (end-2012) to 11-19x presently amid a positive operating environment and superior financials (high ROEs, zero/low gearing). Valuations are fairly reflective of fundamentals at this stage and thus we are downgrading the sector to NEUTRAL from Overweight. Kossan remains our top pick with a higher TP of MYR7.60 (+7%) as we attached a higher PER target of 16x (from 15x), still lower than its peer average of 15.6x. Our HOLD on Hartalega (TP MYR6.71) is maintained but we have downgraded Top Glove to HOLD (from BUY) with a slightly lower TP of MYR6.40 (-5%).


金融海嘯5周年 失速的經濟終邁向復甦


Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
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