Saturday, May 4, 2013

What the election results will mean for Malaysia's economy.

@ GEO ENERGY's AGM: Jim Rogers In The Limelight

@ GEO ENERGY's AGM: Jim Rogers In The Limelight

NOT SURPRISINGLY, there was noticeable shareholder interest in Jim Rogers, the world-famous investor who lives in Singapore.

Shareholders seized the opportunity to speak with him after the AGM, the first AGM for Geo Energy Resources as a listed company. He obliged them and appeared in no hurry to leave.

Jim Rogers has brought an investor's perspective to the Board's discussions and he also had many fund contacts to introduce, said Mark Zhou, Geo Energy's chief investment officer, after the AGM to a shareholder and I while we all had tea.

BUFFETT & BLACK GOLD: Which China Shares To Benefit?

Written by Andrew Vanburen (China Correspondent)
Saturday, 27 April 2013 09:08
Main reference: Story in Sinafinance

WARREN BUFFETT'S recent buys into US-based oil equipment and growing consensus that the largely untapped shale oil business in the US is about to take off are shining the light on potential beneficiaries.

Some A-share oilfield equipment suppliers are likely to see more upside than others.

The reason for optimism from a “Buffett Effect” is that the Nebraska-based billionaire investor has essentially ambushed related sector plays.

CapitaLand : Revving up in next few quarters (DBSV)

BUY S$3.65
STI : 3,348.87
Price Target : 12-month S$ 4.44 (Prev S$ 4.42)
Revving up in next few quarters

• Higher y-o-y growth, led by residential and portfolio gains
• Better earnings momentum in coming quarters
• Maintain Buy, TP S$4.44

Results in line with street estimates. Capitaland’s 1Q13 PATMI of S$188.2m is in line with market expectations but slightly below our estimates, accounting for 19% of our full year forecast. This represents a 41% jump y-o-y, driven by portfolio gains, lower effective tax rate and higher associate contributions while revenue inched up 3.2% to S$662m. Operating PATMI came in at S$133m, +70% y-o-y.

China Life Earnings upturn in 1Q13; unlikely sustainable (DBSV)

China Life
HOLD HK$20.60
HSI : 22,401
Price Target : 12-Month HK$ 23.50
Earnings upturn in 1Q13; unlikely sustainable

1Q13 net income is above expectations; driven by higher than expected interest income & lower impairments
Surrender cost has been escalating; may further pressurise earnings
Maintain HOLD on the lack of earnings momentum (TP HK$23.5). Prefer Ping An (BUY TP HK$78.9).

Unisem: Still Far From Seeing The Light At The End Of The Tunnel (TA)

Unisem (M) Berhad

TP: RM0.85
Last Traded: RM0.88
Still Far From Seeing The Light At The End Of The Tunnel

_ Unisem suffered RM9.7mn losses in 1Q13 and this earnings disappointment can be attributed to contraction in revenue. For this quarter, the group’s revenue trailed analysts’ estimates and came in at 22% of our full-year forecasts and 21% of consensus estimates.

_ The absence of retrenchment costs of RM5.7mn recorded in 1Q12 has helped Unisem to narrow its core losses to RM9.7mn in 1Q13. However, we consider 1Q13 performance as a huge disappointment as: 1) the effort of trimming workforce in FY12 failed to lift profit margin higher; and 2) the quarterly revenue has dropped to the record low level since 2Q09.

Pantech Group: A whisker short of all-time profit high (TA)

Pantech Group
TP: RM 0.90
Last Traded: RM0.75
A whisker short of all-time profit high

_ Pantech’s FY13 net profit of RM55 mn (+61% YoY) was within our expectations and consensus’, accounting for 103% and 96% of full-year estimates respectively.

_ Pantech’s stellar performance in FY13 was just a whisker short of exceeding its all-time record high profit of RM61.5mn in 2009. Nevertheless, it is commendable that the group increased its net profit by more than 50% over FY12 (RM37.9mn), and expanded operating margin by 2 ppt in FY13.

Malaysia Smelting Corp - Bracing For Bad News From Koba Tin

Malaysia Smelting Corp -
Price Target: 2.73
Last Price:2.91
Bracing For Bad News From Koba Tin

MSC’s audited FY12 net loss of MYR172.3m was a radical change from its previous announcement of MYR111.2m. The wider loss was attributed to impairments and provisions made amid the uncertainty over the renewal of its 75%-owned PT Koba Tin’s Contract of Works (CoW). As the Indonesian Government’s extended evaluation on its renewal may have kept some investors hopeful, the surprise backdated adjustment could come as a shock. Maintain SELL.

Cash: A Call Option With No Expiration Date

Cash: A Call Option With No Expiration Date
April 26 2013

Cash is generally regarded as a drag on investment returns, but sometimes it may be preferable to hold a substantial cash amount instead of investing it in other assets. This is because having cash on hand gives an investor the flexibility to acquire an asset or assets at bargain prices when the opportunity arises. In this respect, cash can be viewed as a call option – on virtually any asset – with no expiration date.

 Note that "cash" in this context refers to monies invested in Treasury bills, money market funds and other very liquid instruments. As well, recall that a call option or a “call” gives the buyer the option or right to purchase an asset at a pre-determined price (the “strike price”) on or before a specific date (the “expiration date”). The most appealing characteristic of call options is that they offer the call buyer theoretically unlimited upside, while restricting the maximum loss to the premium paid by the buyer.

曾淵滄教路 16.04.13: 誠哥四叔趁低增持 本港地產股可長線買入

誠哥四叔趁低增持 本港地產股可長線買入


大英Blog物館 26.04.13 : 深入了解公司 由閱讀財務報表開始

深入了解公司 由閱讀財務報表開始
最近的商業周刊,有一個頗有趣的「百事通」特輯(The How To Issue),由變魔術到冥想,一應俱全。比較正經的,有講述財務報表分析入門。周刊請來甲骨文(ORCL)聯席主席、惠普(HPQ)前行政總裁Mark Hurd,用企業角度,提供一個閱讀框架:


Axis REIT : Bright prospects (DBSV)

BUY RM3.71
KLCI : 1,706.68
Price Target : 12-Month RM 4.05 (Prev RM 3.35)
Bright prospects

1Q13 in line; revenue growth driven by new properties and rental reversions
4.5sen DPU declared – as expected
Good growth prospects through potential asset acquisitions and unlocking value in existing assets
Raised DCF-based TP to RM4.05; Maintain BUY

Warren Buffett's Empire Is Everywhere

Suntec REIT: AEI works on track (DBSV)

Suntec REIT
HOLD S$1.98
STI : 3,337.71
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.99 (Prev S$ 1.70)
AEI works on track

• Results impacted by Suntec Mall AEI works, marginal top up of S$2.7m required
• Strong pre-commitment levels at Suntec Mall mitigates leasing risks and reaffirms earnings sustainability
• Maintain Hold, TP S$1.99

Dragged by intensifying AEI works at Suntec Mall. Suntec reported a 32% y-o-y (-10% q-o-q) decline in gross revenue to S$49.7m on lower income from Suntec Mall and Suntec Spore as AEI works at the mall intensifies. This was partly offset by higher revenue from Suntec Office. Distributable income of S$47.6m was boosted by a small capital top-up of S$2.7m, bringing income available for distribution to S$50.3m, a slight drop of only 7% y-o-y. This translates to a DPU of 2.228 S cts.

Sheng Siong: Staying neutral (DBSV)

Sheng Siong
HOLD S$0.715
STI : 3,337.71
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.72 (Prev S$ 0.68)
Staying neutral

• Revenue was 5% below expectations, but earnings beat our estimates by 12% on lower than expected operating costs
• FY13F earnings raised 5%; trimmed revenue growth rate but factored in better operating margins
• Maintain HOLD, TP raised to S$0.72

1Q13 earnings beat our expectations by 12% aided by lower than expected operating costs. 1Q13 earnings came in at S$10.5m, 12% above our S$9.4m estimate. The difference was mainly due to lower than expected operating costs. Operating costs were S$29.6m, 11% lower than our S$33.1m forecast, due to benefits from bulk handling and direct sourcing initiatives in our view.

MISC : “Privatization offer fail – expect selling pressure”(M&A)

Current Price (RM)4.54
New Fair Value (RM)5.19
Previous Value (RM)5.77
“Privatization offer fail – expect selling pressure”

Petronas has failed to get at least the 90% acceptance level with only 86.07% voting shares or 3.84 billion units at the close of the acceptance at 5pm on 19th April 2013. There is uncertainty whether PNB has accepted the offer from Petronas. However, we expect that PNB may have accepted the offer since it was the second largest minority shareholder after EPF with a 6.4% stake to bring the total acceptance to 86%. The failure of Petronas’ bid may drag down MISC’s share price. Currently, the share price has already fallen by -16.7% from the closing price of RM5.30 on 19th April 2013.

Unisem - 1Q13 Results

Unisem -
Price Target:0.95
Last Price:0.86
1Q13 Results

1Q13 results continue to disappoint with core net loss of RM10.3m, not comparable to HLIB and consensus’ full year profit forecasts of RM8.4m and RM24.4m profit respectively.

However, we consider this as largely within expectations as we are expecting better 2Q with industry wide recovery in 2H13.

曾淵滄教路 30.04.13: 急跌因大鱷炒作 搶金熱難撐金價

急跌因大鱷炒作 搶金熱難撐金價










Friday, May 3, 2013

印度电厂料如期启动 成荣前景看好




Do Watch Out Before Taking The Property Plunge

24 APRIL 2013
Do Watch Out Before Taking The Property Plunge

By MIGB Commentary

In spite of the Asian financial crisis in 1997 and the nightmarish collapse of the US economy in 2008, East Asian countries have since recovered from these crises. Just look at how eager buyers flock the burgeoning property markets in Malaysia and Singapore; even the series of cooling measures that Singapore had implemented could not dampen the fevered rise in property prices. This can be attributed to the flush of liquidity in the market. In the bid to attract buyers, houses are built more luxuriously and well decked-out, like the dual-key apartments and fenced properties, and they are selling like hot cakes despite the million-dollar price tags.

附加股除权激励 马航交投热盘中飙16%

附加股除权激励 马航交投热盘中飙16%
Created 05/03/2013 - 12:33




善用产托上市资金 怡保花园双箭头推增长

善用产托上市资金 怡保花园双箭头推增长
Created 05/03/2013 - 12:17

怡保花园主席丹斯里阿布达力奥玛,以及董事经理陈俊明在2012年报中指出,集团内部增长主要来自谷中城美佳广场和The Gardens广场,为集团提供许多资产升值良机。

他们说,在怡保花园仅营运了5年的The Gardens广场,预计可成为怡保花园产托的盈利增长来源,该广场54.2%出租空间将会在2013年杪届满,新租约会争取提高租金。

DBS: Stronger-than-expected 1Q (OCBC)

Fair value S$18.28
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.560
versus: Current price S$16.76

Stronger-than-expected 1Q
• Significantly higher 1Q performance
• Several areas of growth
• Raised FV to S$18.28

Summary: DBS Group Holdings Ltd posted stronger-than-expected 1Q13 net earnings of S$950m versus market expectations of S$824m. The key contributors were the strong double-digit increase in Fee and Commission Income, +25% YoY to S$507m, as well as higher Trading Income (+26% YoY to S$410m).

OKP Holdings: 1Q13 misses expectations (OCBC)

OKP Holdings:
Fair value S$0.46
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.020
versus: Current price S$0.505

1Q13 misses expectations
• Gross margin falls from 21% to 15%
• Lower tax rate
• Cut FV to S$0.46

OKP's 1Q13 revenue grew 28.4% YoY to S$32.0m but gross margin fell to 15.1% from 21.0% in 1Q12, chiefly due to increased subcontracting and labour costs. PATMI dropped 22.2% YoY to S$2.4m. 1Q13 EPS of 0.77 S cents was lower expected, forming 18% of ours and 15% of the street's FY13 estimates.

SMRT Corporation: No turnaround yet (OCBC)

SMRT Corporation:
Fair value S$1.45
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.03
versus: Current price S$1.51

No turnaround yet
• FY14 to remain weak
• Bus business could be impaired further
• Fair value reduced again

SMRT reported its weakest set of FY results in over ten years as increases in operating expenses – namely staff costs and repairs and maintenance (R&M) expenses – outpaced revenue growth across its various sectors.

Frasers Commercial Trust: Advancing steadily (OCBC)

Frasers Commercial Trust:
Fair value S$1.66
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.07
versus: Current price S$1.54

Advancing steadily
• Better-than-expected results
• Strong operating performance
• Expecting further DPU uplift

Frasers Commercial Trust’s (FCOT) 2QFY13 DPU came in at 1.9883 S cents, representing a 14.4% YoY growth. This is slightly above our expectations, as 1HFY13 DPU of 3.5715 S cents already formed 51.4% of our full-year DPU forecast.

Fitters Diversified : Visible catalyst (DBSV)

Fitters Diversified
BUY RM0.59
KLCI : 1,707.97
Price Target : 12-Month RM 0.95

Major Shareholders
Dato' Wong Swee Yee (%) 32.0
Free Float (%) 68.0

Visible catalyst

Unlocking value by listing merged fire-fighting unit (with Singaporean partner)
RM300m unbilled sales from ZetaPark@Setapak offer earnings visibility
Maintain BUY rating and RM0.95 TP

HPH Trust: Poised to leverage on a cyclical upturn in global trade (AM)

Poised to leverage on a cyclical upturn in global trade
In its latest quarterly results, Hutchison Port Holdings Trust (HPHT) continued to showcase its resilience against the backdrop of a softened macro environment. While HPHT’s recent labour dispute at Hong Kong International Terminal (HIT) will put a slight dampener on its bottom-line, we believe this will be negated by the revenue contribution from its recent acquisition of Asia Container Terminals (ACT).

We reiterate that HPHT’s current valuations remain hugely enticing given the sustainability of its 7+% yield and the scope for recovery in global trade conditions. Maintain BUY with a FV of US$0.955.

Chinese banks : 1Q13 wrap (DBSV)

Chinese banks
1Q13 net profit, fees, NIM and capital trends beat estimates
Asset quality was disappointing for some banks
GDP recovery is key to loan pricing power, bad debt pressure, and P/BV valuations
Prefer large cap banks; ABC and ICBC are our top picks

1Q13 trends were generally positive. All H-share banks’ 1Q13 net profit figures were higher than our forecast. Non-interest income was a key positive  and drove much of the earnings surprise. 1Q13 NIM was more resilient than  forecast, particularly for the Big 5 banks, which saw only minor q-o-q NIM declines. Impacts of new capital rules were also milder than expected. However, asset quality of Bocom and Citic Bank were disappointing. On the other hand, ABC and CQRCB’s bad debt levels continued to fall.

Nam Cheong: This Incumbent Will Stay In Power (OSK)

Nam Cheong: This Incumbent Will Stay In Power
(BUY, S$0.245, TP: S$0.35)

Nam Cheong announced yesterday that it has won a USD59m contract for two Accommodation Work Barges (AWBs) from Malaysia's Perdana Petroleum. The early sale of these vessels provides greater revenue and profit visibility for the next four quarters. Nam Cheong is a growth stock at value multiples - earnings are growing 33% this year yet it trades at 7.0x FY13F EPS. We maintain our BUY call with a TP of SGD0.35.

Early sale provides revenue and profit visibility. The two AWBs are scheduled for delivery in 1HFY14. Unit prices of USD29.5m were exactly in line with our forecasts. The sale of these two vessels will provide a strong boost to 2QFY13 earnings (recognising all work complete at once) and increases the baseline revenue and bottom line for the next four quarters due to the stronger confirmed order book.

Pavilion REIT - Organic growth driver intact

Pavilion REIT -
Price Target:1.65
Last Price:1.62
Organic growth driver intact

 We re-affirm our HOLD recommendation on Pavilion REIT (PREIT), with an unchanged fair value of RM1.65/unit, based on our DCF valuation, following release of its 1Q results.

- PREIT posted a 1Q13 distributable income of RM56mil (+11% YoY, +4% QoQ) and a 1.86 sen DPU, in-line with our and consensus estimates at 26% and 27%, respectively.

Sheng Siong Group: A local darling (OCBC)

Sheng Siong Group:
Fair value S$0.82
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.02
versus: Current price S$0.72

A local darling
• Strong set of 1Q13 results
• Outlook remains positive
• More upside ahead

Sheng Siong Group reported an excellent set of 1Q13 results with contributions from new stores boosting revenue growth by 12.3% YoY while cost management initiatives continued to improve operating margins. In the coming quarters, Sheng Siong’s outlook remains positive as the lack of any foreseeable price competition amongst the Big 3 players, and defensive consumer spending in the face of continued economic uncertainty should prove supportive for the group.

CapitaMalls Asia: firm start to the year but clouded by drop in China traffic (DB)

CapitaMalls Asia
Price at 24 Apr 2013 (SGD) 1.97
Price target - 12mth (SGD) 2.09
52-week range (SGD) 2.24 - 1.35
1Q ahead; firm start to the year but clouded by drop in China traffic

CMA reported headline 1Q13 PATMI of S$73m (+9.6% YoY, -60% QoQ) which exceed our forecast mainly due to lower pre-opening losses, operating expenses and corporate tax, development profit from Orchard Residences and a S$7m warehousing gain from two China assets divested to CMCDF III. Gross margin rose from 58% to 66% YoY while admin expenses were flat despite the higher number of malls. Excluding portfolio and revaluation gains, 1Q core PATMI rose 85% YoY, +71% QoQ. Net gearing fell slightly from 30% to 26% (34% on a look-through basis).

Suntec REIT: Top-up likely lower = catalyst for pullback (Nomura)

Suntec REIT
Target price Remains SGD 1.68
Closing price April 25, 2013 SGD 1.98
Top-up likely lower = catalyst for pullback

1Q: Excluding top-ups, core operations in line
SUN reported its 1QFY13 results on 25 April after the market close. Excluding a distribution from capital of SGD2.7mn (or 0.1Scts/unit), 1QFY13 DPU of 2.1Scts (-14.1%y-y; -9.4%q-q) –met 25% of our fullyear forecast of 8.4Scts (including a projected distribution from capital of SGD25mn or 1.1Scts/unit, our FY13F DPU forecast is 9.5Scts). Better-than-expected contribution from ORQ and MBFC I helped offset the lower-than-expected earnings from Suntec City Mall (on account of ongoing asset enhancement) during the quarter.

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust: Negotiating rough waters (DBSV)

Hutchison Port Holdings Trust
BUY US$0.83
STI : 3,368.18
Price Target : 12-Month US$ 0.87 (Prev US$ 0.89)
Negotiating rough waters

• Overall volume growth flattish in 1Q13, results lagged expectations
• Disruptions caused by port workers’ protest in HK will have an impact on FY13/14 distributions
• Recent acquisition and fast ramp up of ACT will help mitigate the impact to an extent
• Yields still attractive at close to 7%, maintain BUY with slightly lower TP of US$0.87 (WACC 7.1%)

Sunway REIT : Reinstating Coverage with NEUTRAL (CS)

Sunway REIT
Price (30 Apr 13, RM) 1.60
TP (prev. TP RM) 1.62 (NA)
Reinstating Coverage with NEUTRAL
Muted DPU growth in FY14

● SunREIT’s 9M FY13 distributable income of RM172 mn, up 14% YoY, was within expectations. The increase was mainly driven by lower finance cost and strong rental growth at Sunway Pyramid and Sunway Carnival.

● Sunway Putra Mall has been closed for renovations which are expected to last 20-22 months. The details of the renovations will be unveiled in the coming weeks; however, media reports indicate that targets are for rentals to more than double.


曾淵滄專欄:點解領匯升極都有 - 曾淵滄



2因素不利 双威末季盈利或放缓





中海油擔保子公司發債   [2013-05-03]    
 香港文匯報訊  中海油(0883)昨表示,擬擔保子公司CNOOC Finance(2013)發行優先票據,籌資以償還部分因收購加拿大Nexen而產生的短期貸款。國際信貸評級機構穆迪就CNOOC Finance(2013)擬發行的美元票據給予Aa3優先無擔保評級,同時確認中海油的Aa3發行人評級以及由中海油擔保子公司發行的債券評級,展望均為穩定,反映出對中海油產量增長以及儲量交替均為平穩的預期。

 市場消息指中海油債規模為50億美元。中海油昨稱,由CNOOC Finance(2013)發行的票據,銷售對象為香港境內及美國境外的其他地方的專業投資者,所得款項凈額擬主要用作償還中海油因收購Nexen而產生的一項60億美元短期貸款協議項下的部分未償還貸款。今年2月,中海油完成對Nexen價值151億美元的收購,這是迄今中國企業最大宗海外併購個案。

人行籲中央 減持四大銀行

人行籲中央 減持四大銀行



Thursday, May 2, 2013


Created 05/02/2013 - 17:25




Created 05/02/2013 - 18:31






Created 05/02/2013 - 18:38



安聯研究說,雙威產業信托將著重產業強化措施,包括雙威金字塔購物中心,已開始的Oasis Boulevard 5,新添淨出租面積達2萬零362平方英尺,現有2萬3千432平方英尺則轉型中,管理層試圖讓國際服裝品牌進駐。

DBS Q1 profit up 2% at record high

THURSDAY, 02 MAY 2013 10:00

DBS Group Holdings, Singapore’s biggest bank, posted a record quarterly profit, beating expectations, as higher fee and commission income offset a slight drop in income from its key lending business.

DBS earned $950 million in the three months ended March, compared with the previous record profit of $933 million a year earlier. Its profit was far above the $836 million average forecast of eight analysts polled by Reuters.

Singapore’s no. 2 lender Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp on Tuesday posted a 16% fall in first quarter profit, hurt by lower contributions from its insurance unit and weak interest rate margins.

Cornerstone investors lined up for Taiwan pay-TV operator’s $1.4b IPO

THURSDAY, 02 MAY 2013 12:39

Asian Pay Television Trust, an investment vehicle for one of Taiwan’s biggest pay-TV operators, has secured commitments from as many as eight cornerstone investors to take up nearly a third of its planned initial public offering, which is expected to raise 1.4 billion dollars, people with knowledge of the deal said Wednesday.

Cornerstone investors commit to holding a significant stake for a certain length of time, demonstrating their confidence in the shares. The cornerstone investors that have committed to Asian Pay Television Trust’s IPO include insurance companies, long-only funds and hedge funds, the people said, without naming the investors.

IGB aims to focus on organic and inorganic growth

IGB aims to focus on organic and inorganic growth
Business & Markets 2013

Written by Fatin Rasyiqah Mustaza of  
Thursday, 02 May 2013 09:49

KUALA LUMPUR: IGB Corp Bhd will use the proceeds from the listing of IGB Reit (real estate investment trust) to fund its organic and inorganic growth in the near future.

Its chairman Tan Sri Abu Talib Othman and group managing director Robert Tan Chung Meng said the organic growth would be driven by Megamall and The Gardens Mall, which offer numerous asset enhancement opportunities for the group.

MAS jumps 12.5%, trades ex-rights

Hot Stock MAS jumps 12.5%, trades ex-rights
Business & Markets 2013

Written by Kamarul Anwar of  
Thursday, 02 May 2013 11:14

KUALA LUMPUR (May 2): MALAYSIAN AIRLINE SYSTEM BHD [] (MAS) jumped 12.5% from its theoretical ex-rights price of 32 sen to become the most-active counter in morning trade. The stock trades ex-rights today.

At 10:11am, the national carrier’s stock jumped four sen or 12.5% to 36 sen. More than 25 million shares changed hands. At 11.09am, the stock was traded at 35.5 sen.

陈凯希: 攻精致产品 海鸥低本高利创高峰

陈凯希: 攻精致产品 海鸥低本高利创高峰
Created 05/02/2013 - 12:56



基金布陣五月 有買無沽

港股四月份結束連續兩個月跌勢,恒生指數不但收復二月及三月份失地,首四個月更倒升0.35%。不過,傳統上股市有「五窮、六絕、七翻身」之說,同時○三年至去年期間,五月份跌市比率達六成,投資者應遵從傳統智慧五月沽貨(sell in May),還是採用新投資智慧,五月份繼續持貨(hold in May)或五月買貨(buy in May)?當中Look's Asset Management董事總經理兼投資總監陸東選擇「buy in May」,主要原因港股估值依然偏平,恒指顯著下挫空間有限。

本報向12名基金經理進行調查,顯示選擇「buy in May」及「hold in May」基金經理各佔五成,反而沒有基金經理選擇「sell in May」。原因是現時股市估值很低殘,追沽會「無肉食」,候低吸納或趁高獲利沽貨更划算。

Unisem : Set to recover from soft revenue (MIDF)

Unisem (M) Bhd
Price (24 Apr. 2013) RM0.88
Target Price RM1.08
Set to recover from soft revenue

Unexpected losses in 1Q13 due to soft January and February revenues. However, revenue recovered in March and expected to continue into 2Q13.
Higher ASP will take full effect in 2Q13.
EBITDA improvement, growing +14.4%yoy in 1Q13. EBITDA margins improved to 14.3%.
Revenue will rebound in the coming quarters and when demand improves, the ramp-up can be drastic. Maintain our BUY recommendation for the recovery and undemanding valuation.

Rickmers Maritime : 1Q13 Earnings in line (Clarkson)

Rickmers Maritime
1Q13 Earnings in line.
Rights issue could accelerate deleveraging. Maintain Market-perform, SGD 0.38 target.
1Q13 operating results met our expectations. Rickmers Maritime (RMT) reported earnings of $0.0193/unit for 1Q13. Revenues of $35.5 million and EBITDA of $25.8 million were in line with our estimates. The company had lower-than-expected finance expenses in the quarter, resulting in a net profit of $10.7 million versus our estimate of $8.2 million.

Charter extended for largest vessel. RMT announced that the charter for the Kaethe C. Rickmers was extended from March to September at a net daily rate of $5,700/day. This vessel is the largest in RMT’s fleet and the only vessel that will seek new employment during 2013. We had been modeling a charter rate of $11,000/day for the vessel’s next charter. We now project a rate of $10,000/day beginning in October. We have also lowered our projected finance expenses, resulting in higher earnings estimates for 2013-14. Our projected EPU for 2013 is $0.082/unit (was $0.063) and our 2014 estimate is $0.083/unit (was $0.064).

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding: Calm before the storm (CIMB)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
Current S$0.95
Target S$1.00
Calm before the storm

 Cheaper raw materialsplus theexecution of remaining pre-GFC high-value contracts preserved YZJ’s shipbuilding margins. This trend could sustainfor a while, potentially supporting its share price overthe next 12 months.

1Q13 core EPS is 18% above our expectation, at 30% of our FY13 and 26% of consensus, thanks to higher-than-expected shipbuilding revenue and margins. We raise our FY13-14 EPS by 3-16% for higher margins and orders. Upgrade to Neutral from Underperform in view of its better outlook this year with a higher target price at 1.2x, its last trough (previously 30% discount to last trough).

Great Eastern Holdings : trong new business growth, but at the expense of margin (CS)

Great Eastern Holdings .
Price (25 Apr 13 , S$) 17.74
TP (prev. TP S$) 22.50 (20.00)
1Q13 result: Strong new business growth, but at the expense of margin

● Great Eastern reported a strong headline 1Q13 result, with S$207.5 mn NPAT, although below an even stronger 1Q12 of S$262.5 mn which had much higher mark to market gains.

● Strong new business growth. Total weighted new business sales were S$205 mn in 1Q13, up 16% YoY. Singapore new business growth was strong (+19%) especially bancassurance regular premium. Malaysia new business was up 7% YoY, with strong growth in other markets (+43%), driven by Indonesia.

F&N – Valuation Support But Let The Dust Settle (UOBKH)

F&N – Valuation Support But Let The Dust Settle
The sharp pull-back in share price reflects the expiry of GO and the removal of the stock from various indices. A conglomerate discount of 10-20% suggests a potential valuation of S$8.60-9.70.

What’s New
• Sharp pull-back in share price; what to do now? Since resuming trading on 22 April, F&N (NOT RATED) has fallen 13.6% from the presuspension price of S$9.43. Other than the expiry of the general offer (GO) on 18 February, the decline could have been attributed to the removal of the stock from several MSCI Indices. This report highlights our latest views on F&N.

Olam International : Re-balancing Growth And Cashflow (UOBKH)

Olam International
Share Price S$1.67
Target Price S$1.98
Re-balancing Growth And Cashflow

Management unveiled its latest strategic review, which seeks to balance growth and cash flow. Though its growth targets will be scaled back, investors may welcome its move to reduce gearing and prioritise cash flows. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$1.98.

What’s New
• Strategic review. After extensive consultation with stakeholders in the company over the past few months, management unveiled its latest strategic review for the period FY14-16.

Sheng Siong: Good start to the year (CIMB)

Sheng Siong Group
Current S$0.72
Target S$0.75
Good start to the year

 A healthy ramp-up in sales from the new stores powered Sheng Siong to a good set of results. Earnings were further aided by the absence of price competition, which decimated gross margins this time last year.

1Q13 core net profit forms 26% of our and consensus full-year estimates. We make no change to our earnings estimates, or target price, which is still based on 23x CY14 P/E (at a 10% discount to Dairy Farm). We expect catalysts to come from new store openings and stronger-than-expected same store sales growth (SSSG). Outperform maintained

CapitaMalls Asia: New malls contribute (CIMB)

CapitaMalls Asia
Current S$1.97
Target S$2.16
New malls contribute

 CMA’s 1Q13 results show further improvements in operating metrics –new rental streams from new malls, robust tenant sales and same-mall NPI growth in China. More malls are expected to be completed this year and execution will be key.

1Q13 core earnings were in line at 26% of our full-year estimate and 25% of consensus. We tweak EPS but keep our target price, still based on a 10% discount to RNAV. We retain our Neutral stance on valuation grounds. We think that compression in cap rates and accretive asset recycling are needed to push the stock beyond its 1.2x P/BV valuation in the near term.

Suntec REIT: Intensification of Suntec AEI (CIMB)

Suntec REIT
Current S$1.98
Target S$1.96
Intensification of Suntec AEI

 1QFY13 DPU was expectedly hit by the intensifying AEI works at Suntec City Mall, though its impact was softened by management tapping on the divestment proceeds from Chijmes. The stock has done well YTD, and could increasingly be pricing in a smooth AEI execution.

1QFY13 DPU was broadly in-line with consensus and our expectations at 24% of our FY13 forecast. We adjust FY13-15 DPUs as we update for leases up for rent reviews and renewals and cost of borrowing. Our DDM-based target price is also higher, on a lower discount rate of 7.5% (previously 7.7%). Maintain Neutral on valuations.

Starhill Global REIT: Strong quarter, Singapore shines (CIMB)

Starhill Global REIT
Current S$0.97
Target S$0.96
Strong quarter, Singapore shines

 1Q13 saw overall occupancy rate rising to 99.7%. Singapore was the star performer, led by strong occupancy and positive rental reversions, including a 10% rise in Toshin master rent. Overseas performance was mixed, with Chengdu still affected by the softening China retail market.

1Q13 DPU, at 27% of our full-year number, was slightly above consensus and our forecasts. Factoring in the Toshin lease uplift and higher assumed occupancy and rental, we raise our FY13-15 DPUs and DDM-based target price on a lower discount rate of 7.7% (previously 7.9%). Maintain Neutral, with acquisitions, AEIs and stronger rental growth as catalysts.

Bank of China : 9.5% core Tier 1 somewhat low for a global SIB?

Bank of China
Maintain NEUTRAL
Price (25 Apr 13 , HK$) 3.53
TP (prev. TP HK$) 4.05 (4.05)
1Q13 results: Almost in line; 9.5% core Tier 1 somewhat low for a global SIB?

● BOC reported profit of Rmb39.8 bn, almost in line with CS estimates. Fee income (6% ahead of est.) and cost savings (opex 2% lower) offset shortfall in net interest income (2% behind est.).

● Margin held up well in 1Q13, down 1 bp QoQ (CS -4 bp) as BOC further trimmed high-cost structured deposits by half during 1Q13. The surprise in BOC is that average interest earning assets have been flat for three quarters despite an 8.5% jump in loans (+6.7% QoQ in 1Q13), 3% in interbank and 5% in investments.

Yangzijiang 1Q13 in line; further offshore orders unlikely (CS)

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (Holdings) Ltd
Maintain NEUTRAL
Price (26 Apr 13 , S$) 0.96
TP (prev. TP S$) 1.10 (1.10)
1Q13 in line; further offshore orders unlikely

● 1Q13 net profit of Rmn717 mn was in line with our expectation, representing 25.8% of our FY13 forecast of Rmb2.78 bn. Shipbuilding revenue declined to Rmb2,472 mn from Rmb3,234 mn in 4Q12, with gross margins flat YoY at 26%.

● Held-to-maturity (HTM) financial assets increased slightly to Rmb11.6 bn from Rmb11.4 bn at the end of 4Q12. Interest income grew 28% QoQ to Rmb394 mn in 1Q13 from Rmb309 mn in 4Q12.


曾淵滄專欄:阿爺暗示你信不信 - 曾淵滄



KNM reports results deviation

The Star Online > Business
Wednesday May 1, 2013
KNM reports results deviation

PETALING JAYA: Process equipment maker KNM Group Bhd has reported a deviation of more than 10% in its announced unaudited accounts and audited net profit for the financial year ended Dec 31, 2012.

The unaudited net profit announced before was RM130.6mil vis-a-vis the audited figure of RM82.03mil.

The company told Bursa Malaysia that this was due to the adjustments from normal operations and the significant audit adjustments to its Brazilian operations.

“The goodwill of RM29.557mil, which was attributed to the skills and technical talent of the business acquired in 2008, has been fully impaired during the year,” KNM said.

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

資金還在不會崩盤 馬股抵得住烏巴風





股價月內挫近25% 依華仙台遭不合理拋售





PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 22.04.2013- Cordlife

國陣若沒大勝 馬股或下跌86點

國陣若沒大勝 馬股或下跌86點





Created 05/01/2013 - 12:34






Created 05/01/2013 - 11:04






Yangzijiang : A soft sailing (DBSV)

HOLD S$0.96 STI : 3,348.87
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.02 (Prev S$ 1.10)
A soft sailing

• 1Q13 was below our expectations but in line with the consensus
• Trim FY13/14 net profit by 8.2/0.2%
• Yen depreciation reduces cost competitiveness of Chinese yards
• Maintain HOLD with a lower TP of S$1.02

Another cancellation in 1Q13. Yangzijiang’s 1Q13 net profit fell 30% y-o-y to Rmb717m on the back of slower shipbuilding activities and a higher tax rate. Results came in below our above consensus estimate of Rmb750-800m due to lower revenue recognition.

Unisem - A muted 1QFY13

Unisem -
Price Target:0.95
Last Price:0.86
A muted 1QFY13

Period     3MFY13/1Q13

Actual vs. Expectations     The group’s 1QFY13 normalised net loss of RM9.7m (50% YoY) came in below expectations, mainly dragged down by a weaker revenue number on the back of a lower sales volume amid the typical seasonal weakness of the quarter.

Dividends     No dividend was declared as expected. For the full financial year, we expect the group to declare 2.0 sen DPS, implying a 2.3% dividend yield.

Pavilion REIT: A good start (CIMB)

Pavilion REIT
Current RM1.60
Target RM1.59
A good start

 Pavilion REIT is off to a good start this year by posting an in-line 1Q13 net profit of RM54m that makes up 25% of our and consensus full-year numbers. The 1.86 sen DPU declared is also on track to meeting our full-year estimate of 7.4 sen.

We maintain our Outperform rating and our DDM-based target price. Rerating catalysts could come from higher-than-expected rental reversions for 67% of Pavilion KL Mall this year. FY14 dividend yields of 4.9% should support its share price.

Bank of China: Solid start to the year (CIMB)

Bank of China
Current HK$3.53
Target HK$3.78
Solid start to the year

 Results were ahead of our expectation on solid revenues and good cost control, allowing management to further strengthen its balance sheet provisions. A well-flagged decline in Tier 1 ratio is the main negative.

BOC's 1Q13 net profit of Rmb39.8bn (up 8.2% yoy) was 3.4% above our estimate and 4.5% above consensus, mainly on higher other revenues – partly offset by higher loan impairment charges. As 1Q13 net profit forms 26% of our full-year forecast and other revenues are unlikely to sustain its 1Q13 pace, we maintain our forecasts. We reiterate our Neutral rating and GGM-derived target price (0.94x FY13 P/BV).

Olam International: Taking a breather (CIMB)

Olam International
Current S$1.67
Target S$1.56
Taking a breather

 In its strategy review, Olam has decided to sacrifice profit growth for free cash flow generation. We see room for earnings disappointment, but believe that the refined strategy could be more supportive of a sustainable, disciplined long-term growth approach.

We cut our FY13-15 EPS by 12-18% to factor lower margins and downgrade our rating from Neutral to Underperform amid heightened risk of earnings disappointment. Our target price, based on 1x CY13 NAV, falls to S$1.56. In the absence of re-rating catalysts, we think Olam will underperform the STI.

CapitaMalls Asia : Earnings in line (DBSV)

CapitaMalls Asia Limited
BUY S$2.04
STI : 3,337.71
Price Target : S$ 2.38 (Prev S$ 2.30)

• Earnings in line, gross margin improvement and divestment gains boosted results
• Bedok Residences to contribute from 2Q, 6 new malls to open this year
• Maintain BUY, TP S$2.38

1Q13 results in line, accounting for 27% of our FY13 forecast. CMA reported 10% higher PATMI to S$73.2m on a 29% hike in topline to S$91.5m compared to 1Q12. Stripping out revaluation gains in previous period, growth would had been a more impressive 103%. Bottomline was boosted by an improvement in gross margins, higher associates & JCE (jointly controlled entity) income, and an S$6.6m gain from 2 assets sold to CMCDF III.

Suntec REIT: DPU Stable Amid Weak Earnings (DMG)

Suntec REIT: DPU Stable Amid Weak Earnings
(Neutral, S$1.98, TP: S$2.10)

Suntec (SUN) reported its 1Q13 results with revenue and distributable income of SGD49.7m (-32.2% y-o-y) and SGD50.3m (-8.4% y-o-y) respectively, while DPU for the quarter came in lower at 2.23 cents (-9.2% y-o-y). In view of the recent rally on this counter, we have downgraded SUN to Neutral with an unchanged TP of SGD2.10; as we believe the near-term upside have mostly been priced in.

Revenue lower than expected but DPU inline. As a result of closing c.67% of the Suntec City mall for Phase one and Phase two AEI, revenue for 1Q13 was much lower than street consensus and our forecast by c.29%. However, DPU for the quarter remains largely inline with our estimate with a deviation of -3%; largely attributed to a better than expected top up of DPU using the proceeds from the divestment of CHIJMES.

Sheng Siong Group: Core Earnings Within Expectations (DMG)

Sheng Siong Group: Core Earnings Within Expectations
(NEUTRAL, S$0.72, TP: S$0.69)

1Q13 core net earnings surged 31.3% y-o-y to SGD10.5m, in line with ours and market expectations. Revenue growth of 12.3% y-o-y was driven by contributions from new stores while gross margins expanded by 1.7ppt yo-y to 22.5%, having recovered from competitive price pressures in 1Q12.

While we continue to like the company, valuations appear rich at 25x FY13F P/E. Maintain NEUTRAL.

Cache Logistics Trust: Awaiting acquisitions (CIMB)

Cache Logistics Trust
Current S$1.38
Target S$1.50
Awaiting acquisitions

 1Q13 was a steady quarter, led by organic growth from rental step-ups within the portfolio master leases. We look forward to the rest of FY13 as contributions from Precise Two kicks in and expect debt headroom to be utilised for accretive debt-funded acquisitions.

1Q13 DPU met our and consensus estimates at 26% of our FY13 forecast. We lower FY13-15 DPUs, factoring in Cache’s recent equity issuance, offset partially by a higher acquisition assumption. Our DDM-based target price, however, is raised on a lower discount rate of 7.1% (previously 7.7%). Maintain Outperform, with accretive acquisitions as catalysts.

Mapletree Commercial Trust: A solid set of results (HSBC)

Mapletree Commercial Trust
Target price (SGD) 1.45
Share price (SGD) 1.42
A solid set of results

 FY12/13 results beat HSBC and consensus estimates
 VivoCity still the key driver of organic growth; acquisition growth a possibility in the near to medium term
 TP increased to SGD1.45 (from SGD1.25); maintain Neutral

.MCT reported a good set of results; FY12/13 DPU came in 3% and 5% above HSBC and consensus estimates, respectively. MCT reported FY12/13 revenue of SGD219m and DPU of SGD0.065, beating HSBC estimates of SGD216m and SGD0.063 and consensus estimates of SGD210m and SGD0.062, respectively. The beat was driven by stronger-than-expected performance from VivoCity and PSA Building (PSAB), as well as better-than-expected NPI margins in 4Q. FY12/13 revenue and DPU were up 16% and 15% y-o-y, respectively.

CapitaMall Trust 1Q13: New AEI At Bugis Junction (UOBKH)

CapitaMall Trust
Share Price S$2.26
Target Price S$2.54
1Q13: New AEI At Bugis Junction

Results are in line as CMT reaps the rewards of AEIs completed in 2012. A new AEI was announced at Bugis Junction while the space vacated by Carrefour at Plaza Singapura has been filled. Watch for acquisitions and further AEIs in 2013. Maintain BUY with a target of S$2.54. CMT is trading at a healthy forward yield of 4.8%.

• Results in line with expectations. CapitaMall Trust (CMT) reported a 1Q13 distributable income of S$85.3m (+11.3% yoy, +6.9% qoq) and a DPU of 2.46 S cents (+7.0% yoy, 4.2% qoq). The 1Q13 DPU is in line with our expectations, accounting for 23.9% of our full-year DPU estimate of 10.30 S cents. CMT has also retained S$6.6m (0.2c per unit) to be distributed by 2013.

CapitaLand: Operational pick-up in progress (CIMB)

Current S$3.65
Target S$4.33
Operational pick-up in progress

 CapLand’s 1Q13 core earnings jumped 1.3x yoy. Incentive schemes have helped move inventory in Singapore, while units were handed over in China. More will be delivered in 2H12, with strong sell-through rates reported in 1Q13 pointing to stronger operational momentum.

As such, we deem 1Q13 core earnings in line at 20% of our full year and 18% of consensus. We tweak our FY13-15 core EPS estimates but maintain our target price, still based on a 15% discount to RNAV. Stock catalysts are expected from an earnings recovery in FY13 and corporate restructuring initiatives. Outperform maintained.

Ascendas India Trust: Eye on Park Square (DBSV)

Ascendas India Trust
HOLD S$0.86
STI : 3,348.87
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 0.82 (Prev S$ 0.81)'
Eye on Park Square

• Currency remains a drag; DPU of 1.04 Scts slightly below
• Park Square to undergo further tenant remix
• Acquisitions a potential re-rating catalyst
• HOLD maintained, TP S$0.82

Currency continues to remain a drag. In INR terms, Ascendas India Trust’s (a-itrust) underlying operational performance remained fairly stable, with topline falling by 1% to INR 1.3bn. This was due to lower fit-out and utilities income, offset by progressive rental income from an expanded portfolio.

Who wins from falling commodity prices?

Bank of Japan boosts economy, inflation view

日本重炮量宽 ﹣是危丶是机?上

Why USD has the Likable Factor: Pro

Is the Bond Market Signaling Worsening Economy?

Apple: Value Trade or Value Trap?

Tuesday, April 30, 2013

Unisem: Back in the woods (CIMB)

Current RM0.88
Target RM0.84
Back in the woods

 Unisem’s management dished out a negative surprise with its bearish FY13 outlook at its results briefing yesterday. We also learnt that weak demand may take a toll on EBITDA margin improvements, even if they should continue to progress due to cost efficiencies.

1Q13’s core loss was below ours and consensus’ expectations. We cut our FY13-15 EPS by 38-72% on lower sales growth and slower EBITDA margin gains. Based on an unchanged -1s.d. below its 5-year historical average P/BV, our target price is cut by 12.5% (pegged to 0.56x FY13 P/BV). We keep our Neutral call; the lack of rerating catalysts is matched by undemanding valuations. Switch to MyEG.

Suntec REIT: 1Q13 results speak volumes on strength (OCBC)

Suntec REIT:
Fair value S$2.16
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.09
versus: Current price S$1.98

1Q13 results speak volumes on strength
• 1Q13 results within view
• Office segment delivers again
• Suntec City AEI on track

Suntec REIT announced 1Q13 DPU of 2.228 S cents, down 9.2% YoY. This is within expectations, given that the quarterly distribution made up 24-25% of our and consensus FY13F DPU. Retail segment registered a 38.9% YoY decrease in revenue due to the partial closure of Suntec City Mall. However, the office segment continued to perform, achieving a 7.6% growth in revenue on the back of positive rental reversions and consistently high occupancy of 99.7%.

Pavilion REIT :In Line; Driven By Fashion Avenue (MIB)

Pavilion REIT
Hold (unchanged)
Share price: MYR1.60
Target price: MYR1.63 (unchanged)
In Line; Driven By Fashion Avenue

A good start to 2013. PavREIT’s 1Q13 net profit of MYR54.3m (+14% YoY, +8% QoQ) was within our and consensus expectations. We maintain our FY13-15 earnings forecasts and DCF-based TP of MYR1.63. The REIT has risen 14% in price since Jan 2013, outperforming the KLCI’s 2% rise. It currently trades at an FY14 gross yield of 4.8% vs the large-cap REIT average of 5.0%. Total return is less than 10%. Reiterate HOLD.

Midas Holdings: On the road with Midas (CIMB)

Midas Holdings
Current S$0.50
Target S$0.70
On the road with Midas

 Feedback during our Midas roads how covering five US cities in as many days was generally favourable, with investors anticipating a positive price performance due to potential order book momentum. Sceptics were concerned about potential order delays and debt levels.

We continue to rate Midas an Outperform. The catalyst is the likelihood of orders commencing in 2H13 from China, which is committed to its Rmb130bn plan for rolling stocks. Midas is also gaining traction on the international stage. Its diversification into cold rolling could provide earnings growth from 2015 onwards. We raise our target price to S$0.70, now based on 1.29x P/BV (prev. 17x CY14 P/E) to smooth out earnings volatility.

Cache Logistics Trust: Promising start to FY13 (OCBC)

Cache Logistics Trust:
Fair value S$1.45
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.08
versus: Current price S$1.38

Promising start to FY13
• Solid results as expected
• Zero renewal risk in FY13
• Precise Two to contribute positively

Cache Logistics Trust (CACHE) reported 1Q13 DPU of 2.234 S cents, up 7.1% YoY. This is in line with our expectations, given that the quarterly DPU made up 26.5% of our DPU forecast. The strong performance was mainly attributable to upward rental adjustments and incremental contribution from its past acquisitions.

Switch out of REITs to HPHT (DB)

Switch out of REITs to HPHT
Excellent returns YTD, time to switch into HPH Trust

Singapore REITs have outperformed the FSSTI by 7% YTD. With valuations and yields having compressed, and equity issuance a potential speed bump, we see limited total return potential for the REITs over the next 12 months. In Singapore, we would recommend investors switch to Hutchison Port, which yields more than 7% and has underperformed the SREIT index by 8% YTD. We see limited impact from the recent strike and the company is a long-term beneficiary of the move to larger vessels.

CapitaMalls Asia: Sharp execution bearing fruit (OCBC)

CapitaMalls Asia:
Fair value S$2.55
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.03
versus: Current price S$1.97

Sharp execution bearing fruit
• 1Q13 above view
• LT bird flu impact unlikely
• Sharp execution on pipeline

CMA’s 1Q13 PATMI came in at S$73.2m – up 9.6% YoY mostly due to contributions from Star Vista, four malls in Japan and Queensbay Mall, a S$6.6m gain from warehousing of two assets sold to CCDFII, better performance from CMT, ION Orchard and the China Funds, and a sale at The Orchard Residences.

Rickmers Maritime: Flattish operating profit growth (S&P)

Rickmers Maritime
Price: SGD0.34
Date: April 24, 2013

Results Review
1Q13 earnings higher due to lower finance expense. Rickmers Maritime (RMT) reported 1Q13 revenue of USD35.5 mln (-0.5% YoY) and net profit of USD10.7 mln (+30.3% YoY). Profit beat our expectations due to interest expense savings.

Flattish operating profit growth. The revenue growth remained relatively unchanged as vessel Kaethe C. Rickmers extended her employment with a lower daily rate of USD5,700/day (vs. USD 7,600/day previously) starting Mar. 25, 2013. Vessel operating expenses decreased slightly by 3.1% YoY due to lower bunker expenses from the absence of costs associated with Kaethe C. Rickmers’ positioning voyage in 1Q12.

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT: Building On Its Strengths (RHB)

AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (Initiation):
Building On Its Strengths
(BUY, $1.70, TP: S$1.90)

We initiate coverage on AIMS AMP Capital Industrial REIT (AAREIT) with a BUY rating. Based on our DDM model, by assuming a terminal growth rate of 2.0% and a COE of 7.8% (with a risk-free rate of 1.6%, 0.8x beta and 6.8% equity risk premium), we arrive at our target price of SGD1.90. We believe the direction the trust’s manager is currently taking will benefit the unitholders, thanks to its long-term growth potential.

Unlocking value through redevelopment. To drive growth and unlock values within its portfolio, AAREIT’s manager is dedicated to redevelop several of its properties with an underutilized plot ratio. Recently, its management estimated up to 50% of the total portfolio has underutilized plots that could be developed. Through this, the REIT will be able to unlock the values of its existing properties while avoiding the risks of overpaying for an asset, particularly when the capital values of industrial properties in Singapore are currently at their historic highs.

Mapletree Commercial Trust : Waiting for the next big bang (DBSV)

Mapletree Commercial Trust
BUY S$1.415
STI : 3,308.92
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 1.53 (Prev S$ 1.37)
Waiting for the next big bang

• 4Q13 results slightly ahead of our expectations
• Organic growth outlook robust; further upside from acquisitions
• BUY, TP raised to S$1.53

Strong end to FY13; slightly ahead of our expectations. Mapletree Commerical Trust’s (MCT) 4QFY13 revenue and net property income (NPI) rose by 22% and 23% y-o-y, to S$60.7m and S$44.2m respectively. Growth was largely driven by strong rental reversions at Vivo City and PSA Building, supported by improved occupancy levels of 97.7% (vs 94.6% a year ago). Meanwhile, the quarter also saw partial contribution from Mapletree Anson, which was acquired on 4 Feb 13. Distributable income came in at S$34.7m (+20% y-o-y), translating to a DPU of 1.737 Scts (+12% y-o-y).

CapitaMall Trust ; 1Q13 in line: Solid performance as profits improved post AEIs (CS)

CapitaMall Trust
Price (19 Apr 13, S$) 2.26
TP (prev. TP S$) 2.47 (2.40)
1Q13 in line: Solid performance as profits improved post AEIs

● 1Q13 DPU of S¢2.46 (+7% YoY) was in line with expectations. Growth was driven by JCube (opened in April 2012), AEI completions and strong rent reversions (6.2% on average).

● Portfolio’s gross turnover improved to +2.4% (2012: +1.6%) post AEIs, with shopper traffic +4.3%YoY, versus 2012’s 1.4% decline. Occupancies improved slightly to 98.3% as Atrium fills up, although partly offset by IMM due to AEIs.





曾淵滄專欄 30.04.13:熊市不存在強勢股

曾淵滄專欄:熊市不存在強勢股 - 曾淵滄




Created 04/29/2013 - 18:32


Fitch: Shipping Crisis to Extend to End of 2014

黃國英: 现在是买金合适时机 黄金长期下跌空间不大


中国远洋股东大会 总裁表态竭力扭亏


石评大财经 国际金价为何暴跌

China Banks to Report Rise in Bad Loans: Yan

What's Behind the Recent Slump in Chinese Equities?

Apple Is Now Turning Into a Value Stock: Kanji

Monday, April 29, 2013


Created 04/29/2013 - 17:30



Created 04/29/2013 - 12:30




Dufu to grow non-HDD business

Dufu to grow non-HDD business
Business & Markets 2013

Written by Charlotte Chong of  
Monday, 29 April 2013 10:05

KUALA LUMPUR: While Dufu TECHNOLOGY [] Corp Bhd plans to focus on its non-hard disk drive (HDD) business, it is not neglecting its core HDD business which suffered supply chain disruptions caused by a spate of natural disasters in 2011.

“We are not diversifying away from the HDD business but we are growing the non-HDD business as the former is experiencing slow growth at the moment,” said CEO Yong Poh Yow.

3A sees period of consolidation

3A sees period of consolidation
Business & Markets 2013

Written by  
Monday, 29 April 2013 10:32

THREE-A RESOURCES BHD [] (3A) (RM1.02) will likely see a period of consolidation having undertaken several major expansions over the past two to three years. Thus, with its shares currently trading at higher than market average valuations — roughly 22 times our estimated earnings for 2013 — the prospect for upside gains appears to be limited, for the time being.

Recall that the company had expanded production capacities for the glucose, maltodextrin and caramel colour products in recent years. The maltodextrin lines had been doing particularly well, with both plants — the older 1,200 tonnes per month plant and newer 2,000 tonnes per month plant, which was completed in 2011 — running near full capacity.

沿海工程 多元化净利来源

沿海工程 多元化净利来源
Created 04/25/2013 - 10:54





立通国际 2项目催化盈利

立通国际 2项目催化盈利
Created 04/26/2013 - 11:18





鹏达集团 合约陆续有来

鹏达集团 合约陆续有来
Created 04/27/2013 - 13:39






Created 04/29/2013 - 10:41



Golden Triangle of KL has grown bigger

The Star Online > Business
Monday April 29, 2013
Golden Triangle of KL has grown bigger


KUALA LUMPUR: The Golden Triangle of Kuala Lumpur city centre may have just grown bigger, accommodating the developments that have been rippling from the heart of the city in the past few years.

Property consultancy CH Williams Talhar & Wong believes that the commercial, retail and entertainment hub should be redefined to encompass a larger area reflecting the growth of city.

Oneworld factor lifts MAS passenger load 3.5% in Q1

The Star Online > Business
Monday April 29, 2013
Oneworld factor lifts MAS passenger load 3.5% in Q1


PETALING JAYA: Malaysia Airlines' (MAS) entry into the oneworld alliance, among other factors, has lifted loads, although not drastically. The airline saw a 3.5% rise in passenger loads for the first three months of 2013 to 76.6% from the 73% recorded a year ago.

It also saw a 16.5% rise in revenue passenger km (RPK) over the said quarter as opposed to the same period last year. RPK is the average amount an airline makes for flying a paying passenger over a distance of one km.

实康耗资3102 万 购狮城子公司余股

实康耗资3102 万 购狮城子公司余股
Created 04/28/2013 - 14:00
(吉隆坡27日讯)实康(Salcon,8567,主板贸服股)以3102万8000令吉收购集团旗下新加坡子公司———实康达阔环境私人有限公司(Salcon Darco Environmental)其余40%股权。







Suntec REIT : 1Q13 DPU slight miss as AEIs hit portfolio earnings (CS)

Suntec REIT
Price (25 Apr 13, S$) 1.98
TP (prev. TP S$) 1.65 (1.56
1Q13 DPU slight miss as AEIs hit portfolio earnings, though partly cushioned by DPU support

● 1Q13 DPU of S¢2.23 slightly missed our estimates at 23.5% as earnings were impacted as AEIs intensifies, with some closure to execute Phase 2 works. We highlight that there was a DPU support of S$2.7 mn (from proceeds of Chijmes divestment).

● Leasing momentum has been healthy at 96.7% for Phase 1, and 53% for Phase 2. Management indicated that committed rents are on track to yield its initial target of 10.1% ROI (implies an average rent of S$12.59psf/month post AEI).

Mapletree Grtr China Commercial Trust :High exposure to HK retail property with Beijing office kicker (SCB)

Mapletree Grtr China Commercial Trust
PRICE as of 18 Apr 2013 SGD 1.06
High exposure to HK retail property with Beijing office kicker

 We initiate coverage on Mapletree Greater China Commercial Trust (MAGIC) with an Outperform rating and price target of SGD 1.14.
 MAGIC owns a SGD 4.3bn portfolio with two commercial assets in Hong Kong and Beijing.

 We expect positive Beijing rental reversions and robust HK retail sales to drive NPI growth of 6.7% p.a. over FY14-15.

Mapletree Industrial Trust : Eyes on The Signature (CIMB)

Mapletree Industrial Trust
Current S$1.56
Target S$1.62
Eyes on The Signature

 We expect positive rental reversions at MINT’s flatted factories to mitigate downside at The Signature. Though headline yields are decent in the current climate of compressed yields, we maintain a Neutral rating pending clarity on backfilling and further growth catalysts.

4Q/FY13 DPUs were slightly above street and our expectations, forming 26/102% of our FY13 forecast. The variance was due to higher short-term business park rents. We raise DPU estimates and our DDM-based target price (discount rate: 7.3%) factoring in stronger rental assumptions and its recent BTS development.

Suntec REIT: Look Past the Expected Dip in 1Q13 DPU (MKE)

Suntec REIT
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD1.935
Target price: SGD2.07 (from SGD1.90)
Look Past the Expected Dip in 1Q13 DPU

 1Q13 DPU likely down. Suntec’s 1Q13 DPU is likely to be lackluster, dragged down by Suntec City Mall’s (SCM) ongoing renovation works. We estimate that the largest dip on FY13 DPU will occur in 1Q-2Q13, when Phase 1 new tenants have yet to start paying rentals and Phase 2 old tenants are being vacated for the AEI. We forecast 1Q13 DPU at 2.20 SG-cts (-5% QoQ; -10% YoY) and FY13 DPU at 9.2 SG-cts. (-3% YoY).

Hospitality Sector: Wary about 2013 (OCBC)

Hospitality Sector:
Wary about 2013

We have analyzed the relationship between the YoY change in average RevPAR and YoY change in average tourism receipts per visitor arrival. In general, the signs of both are the same for the same year, with change in RevPAR being of larger magnitude than the change in average tourism receipts. 2012 was an exception, where average tourism receipts per visitor fell ~5.5% YoY while RevPAR grew 5.7% YoY. STB’s targets imply that average tourism receipts per visitor may fall by 1% YoY. This further supports our cautious view regarding RevPAR performance in 2013. STB preliminary data supports what we have been saying since Dec: 1Q13 performance for the sector will be weak. 2M13 RevPAR fell 3.1% YoY to S$215.00. Economy hotels were the best performers. We remain NEUTRAL on the hospitality sector. Our top pick is Global Premium Hotels [BUY, FV: S$0.33], which is a longer-term asset value play in the Economy space.

Rubber Gloves : Stick with fundamentals (DBSV)

Rubber Gloves
Stick with fundamentals

Demand surge will benefit glove makers with excess capacity; if this translates to earnings growth, valuations could be re-rated
Regulatory change is a catalyst for demand growth
Too early to call for a re-rating
We still like Kossan for its attractive valuation and earnings growth vis-à-vis the sector

Demand surge could re-rate valuations. The recent H7N9 flu outbreak would probably not trigger demand for rubber gloves immediately but we do not discount rubber glove manufacturers benefitting if the situation worsens and turns into a pandemic. Top Glove appears poised for an unexpected demand surge given its low utilisation rate (70%) and stronghold in the “entry level” powder latex gloves market.

Mapletree Commercial Trust : A difficult year to replicate (CIMB)

Mapletree Commercial Trust
Current S$1.42
Target S$1.47
A difficult year to replicate

 With strong rental reversions from VivoCity this year, we believe that MCT has set a high growth benchmark in FY13 that will be difficult to replicate in FY14. Trading at 1.4x P/BV and forward yields of 4.7%, further upside will need to come from major AEIs and acquisitions.

4QFY13/FY13 DPUs came in slightly above our and consensus expectations, forming 27/102% of our FY13 forecast. The variance is due to the earlier completion of its office acquisition. We tweak our DPUs and DDM target price (discount rate: 6.9%) higher for stronger VivoCity margins but maintain Neutral. Re-rating catalysts include accretive acquisitions.

CapitaCommercial Trust 1Q13: Lease Renewals In The Quarter Match Full-year Renewals In 2012 (UOBKH)

CapitaCommercial Trust
Share Price S$1.66
Target Price S$2.00
1Q13: Lease Renewals In The Quarter Match Full-year Renewals In 2012

Results in line with strong leasing momentum as 1Q13 leases of 410,000sf match the 459,000sf signed for the full-year 2012. Near-term headwinds from the expiry of yield protection at OGS and lower occupancies at Capital Tower are mitigated by strong rental reversions and rising occupancies at 6BR. Substantial acquisition headroom of S$1.1b with CCT’s conservative gearing of 30%. Maintain BUY. Target price: S$2.00 (from S$1.79).

Capitamall Trust : Enjoying the fruits of its labour (DBSV)

Capitamall Trust
HOLD S$2.26
STI : 3,294.05
Price Target : 12-Month S$ 2.36 (Prev S$ 2.15)
Enjoying the fruits of its labour

• 1Q13 DPU of 2.46 Scts was 7% higher y-o-y
• Steady organic growth profile; strategic enhancement programs to create value
• HOLD, S$2.36 TP

Good start to 1Q13. CapitaMall Trust (CMT)’s 1Q13 topline and net property income grew 15% and 16% y-o-y to S$178.2m and S$125.1m respectively. This was largely attributable to income contribution upon the completion of its various asset refurbishment exercises at J-cube, Atrium and Bugis over the past few quarters.

Starhill Global REIT : The Big 1Q13??? Toshin, Japan and YTL (MKE)

Starhill Global REIT
Buy (unchanged)
Share price:SGD0.945
Target price:SGD1.02 (from SGD0.95)
The Big 1Q13??? Toshin, Japan and YTL

 Special Distribution expected in 1Q13. SGREIT will be announcing its 1Q13 results on 26 Apr (aft. market). We think SGREIT is likely to announce a special distribution of 0.2 SG-cts, following the 10% rent increase for the master lease with Toshin at Ngee Ann City (NAC). The net rental arrears from 8 Jun 2011 to 31 Dec 2012 amounted to ~SGD3.8m. We forecast 1Q13 DPU at 1.37 SG-cts and FY13 DPU at 4.88 SG-cts. This represents an 11% YoY growth, boosted by positive rental reversions following Wisma Atria’s AEI (21.5% of gross rent up for renewal in FY13) and acquisition of Plaza Arcade.

Singapore REITs: Time For Some Caution?

Singapore REITs: Time For Some Caution?
April 26, 2013
Singapore-listed REITs have had a very strong run, delivering a 27.6% return since our last update. We relook valuations in the sector and highlight some implications should interest rates begin to normalise.
Author : iFAST Research Team

Singapore-listed REITs have delivered a 27.6% return since our last update in August 2012
Present valuations indicate that the sector trades at a 22% premium to book value, placing Singapore REITs in the “expensive” zone, although not at the most expensive levels the segment has been at, historically
Correspondingly, dividend yields for the sector have also fallen to 4.5% (as of 18 April 2013)
Rising interest rates can negatively affect REITs in two key ways:

黃金周搶金周 金舖24小時鑄金

黃金周搶金周 金舖24小時鑄金
周大福大龍鳳鐲沽清 六福訂單增百倍

中壽業績翻身 利反彈

中壽業績翻身 利反彈

首季純利101億 相當去年九成


收購Nexen一個月  中海油產量飆 惜開支狂升

收購Nexen一個月  中海油產量飆 惜開支狂升





曾淵滄專欄:莊家股最多揸三日 - 曾淵滄



四大內銀鬥盈利鬥資本水平 建行最賺 工行穩陣

四大內銀鬥盈利鬥資本水平 建行最賺 工行穩陣




Bank of China, Bocom Post Record 1st-Qtr Profits



China's Warren Buffett: We're His 'Apprentices'

Apple Results and Supply Chain

Apple Are Buying Own Stock Cheap: Pro

Sunday, April 28, 2013

平民股神蘇松泙 連賺台股41年投資術大公開

营运数据显著改善 马航转盈计划可达标

营运数据显著改善 马航转盈计划可达标
Created 04/28/2013 - 14:15
(吉隆坡27日讯)马航今年首季营运数据改善显著,加上加入寰宇一家(One world)创造积极效应,兴业研究因此重申马航的转亏为盈计划将达标。






REITs基金 穩健之選

REITs基金 穩健之選




Created 04/27/2013 - 12:41

(吉隆坡26日訊)實康(SALCON,8567,以6千300萬人民幣(約3千102萬7千757令吉)現金收購實康達闊環境私人有限公司(Darco Environmental Ptd Ltd)其餘40%股權,將之變成獨資子公司。



HELP International : “First primary and secondary student intake in January 2014” (M&A)

HELP International Corporation Bhd
Current Price RM1.99
New Fair Value RM1.75
Previous Fair Value RM1.75
“First primary and secondary student intake in January 2014”

HELP International Corp Bhd which is diversifying into primary and secondary education, is expected to see its first major student intake by January 2014 and expects its revenue this year to grow by 10% from RM117.1mil in 2012. We downgrade our HOLD call to SELL on HELP International and maintain the Fair Value at RM1.75 by pegging its 3-year P/E average to its EPS13f of 10.28 sen.

Pavilion REIT - Growth Continues To Gain Momentum

Pavilion REIT -
Price Target:1.66
Last Price:1.62
Growth Continues To Gain Momentum

Pavilion REIT’s 1QFY13 results were in line with our and consensus estimates. Net profit grew 13.5% y-o-y and 7.8% q-o-q, mostly attributed to the positive impact from its new Fashion Avenue. No dividend was declared as distributions are made semi-annually. We reiterate that the REIT’s next earnings kicker will likely be its major rental renewals in 3QFY13. Maintain NEUTRAL with an unchanged target price of MYR1.66.

In line. Pavilion REIT’s (PavREIT) 1QFY13 gross revenue of MYR94.8m (+11.0% y-o-y; +3.2% q-o-q) and net profit of MYR54.3m (+13.5% y-o-y; +7.8% q-o-q) came in line with our and consensus estimates. As expected, no dividend was declared during the quarter as PavREIT distributes its dividends semi-annually.

Unimech Group - On An Expansion Track

Unimech Group -
Price Target:1.31
Last Price:1.26
On An Expansion Track


- 5-year revenue CAGR of 14.6%. UNIMECH is an under-researched growth stock with a strong track record of revenue and earnings growth. Its revenue and net profit have grown at a 5-year CAGR of 14.6% and 9.1% respectively, with growth being driven by the group’s burgeoning overseas contribution. During this period, revenue from its overseas segment has more than doubled from just RM35m in FY07 to RM95m in FY12 and management expects this overseas contribution to make up for half of the group’s revenue this year.

Unisem - Falling Short Of Projections

Unisem -
Price Target:0.98
Last Price:0.86
Falling Short Of Projections

As Unisem’s 1QFY13 results missed our and consensus expectations, we are cutting our FY13 and FY14 core earnings forecasts by 83% and 43% respectively. Maintain NEUTRAL, with our FV lowered to MYR0.98, based on 0.7x CY14 P/NTA.

- Falling short. After two consecutive quarters in the black, Unisem recorded a 1QFY13 core loss of MYR10.1m, missing our and consensus expectations. Revenue fell 7% q-o-q (-3% y-o-y) on seasonality while EBITDA slipped 25% q-o-q but was up 1% y-o-y as the group incurred  additional MYR4m in staff cost following the implementation of minimum wages. The 1QFY13 utilization rate stood at 64% vs 68% in 4QFY12. Again, the business’ high operating leverage dragged down the group’s bottomline.

SapuraKencana Sees Growth in India and Africa: CEO

Outlook for the REIT market in Singapore

China's HSBC PMI numbers and what that means for China’s economy

麥嘉華( Marc Fabe)筆記:跟風炒作要嚴守止蝕

麥嘉華筆記:跟風炒作要嚴守止蝕 - 麥嘉華

由Bain & Co.根據《資本過剩理論》所推算,到2020年,全球的金融資產總值將會遠遠超出經濟生產總值,出現10對1的「奇景」,金融資產屆時會高達900萬億美元,而全球經濟產值僅為90萬億美元。



曾淵滄續踩樓市只宜自住 「減價呃人 未跌完」

曾淵滄續踩樓市只宜自住 「減價呃人 未跌完」

記者:陳家雄 湯家明


Standard Chartered Bank chief investment strategist Steve Brice gives his take on the Japanese stocks rally

'Dr. Doom' Roubini Concerned About Crash in Markets

Roubini Doom and Gloom on European Austerity

PhillipCapital Weekly Market Watch 15.04.2013 -Telco

Experts’ Favourites: First Quarter 2013 Review

19 APRIL 2013
Experts’ Favourites: First Quarter 2013 Review
By Ong Qiuying and Nicholas Tan

Do you still remember the stock picks by market experts and the Shares Investment team earlier this year? Alas, it is the time of the year for our much anticipated quarterly review on these handpicked stocks! In this issue, we will be bringing to you the first of a two-part round-up of how the shares chosen by the experts and our team have performed so far and any adjustments that will be made to the initial stock picks.

Dr Chan Yan Chong Column 19-04-2013

19 APRIL 2013
Dr Chan Yan Chong Column
By Dr Chan Yan Chong

The Singapore market has lost its direction for the last two months, neither able to climb higher nor fall any deeper, despite the US market making fresh highs. Possibly, the weak performance of the Chinese and Hong Kong markets have dampened the mood for Singapore stocks.

When China announced a set of below-than-expected first quarter economic readings, investors took it as a slowdown for the Chinese economy and sold gold like there is no tomorrow while the prices of commodities, too, took a hit. As a matter of fact, gold prices have been falling for quite a while and the media only highlighted this issue lately giving speculators the chance to depress prices even further.

Gabriel Gan- Markets Looking Shaky: An Analysis Of What The Charts Are Telling Us

19 APRIL 2013
Markets Looking Shaky: An Analysis Of What The Charts Are Telling Us
By Gabriel Gan

It has been cities of different tales in the various major stock markets and financial instruments around the world: some tell a bullish story, some tell a bearish story while others are not telling us any stories. Singapore belongs to the third category!

What is plaguing our stock market? Where have all the investors gone to?

The Straits Times Index

With headlines saying that Singapore will experience slower growth and companies facing labour shortage does not help to encourage fund managers and investors. Between a country facing slowing growth and a country with an abundance of stimulus measures, which would an investor choose?

Piyush Gupta, CEO of DBS Bank, on building an Asian bank


胡立阳: 股市牛皮 我該如何是好?

Three Stocks to Watch on SGX

Fallout from Falling Commodity Prices

Gamuda Still Going Strong, Arbitration Aside


【本報訊】港股二萬二關反覆,惟外資大行分析報告持續發功,繼麥格理周二唱起油氣設備股後,摩根大通昨推介的比亞迪電子(285)亦喪飆近三成,近期股民執到大行報告,好過執金。著名財經專欄作家曹仁超認為,市場對好消息開始有反應,「經驗話我聽𠵱家係downside limit(跌幅有限)……係見底先兆。」


Sell in May and Go Away?

How to Look at Chinese Banks Results

A股纳入MSCI遥遥无期 万亿增量资金入市或仅百亿

China QFII-Quota Slowdown May Pressure Stocks

What Are the Chances of a Hard Landing in China?

Apple Needs New Innovation: Expert

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
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