Tuesday, December 3, 2013

UOBKH 2014 Top BUYs – Big Caps- M1

M1
Share Price S$3.25
Target Price S$3.95

BACKGROUND
M1 is the second licensed telecommunications service operator in Singapore. It commenced commercial operations in Apr 97 with the launch of its GSM network. It began offering 3G services in Feb 05 and upgraded its 3G network to HSPA in Dec 06 to support wireless broadband services. M1 offers mobile and fixed-line customers IDD services using prefixes 002 and 021. It also sells international minutes to other international service providers on a wholesale basis.


OUTLOOK/RECOMMENDATION
• Upside from tiered data plans. We performed simulation to ascertain the impact of migration on tiered data plans and a planned increase in excess charges for data. Our study indicates that M1’s post-paid ARPU would increase 1.8% in 2013, 5.5% in 2014 and 8.3% in 2015. M1 is the largest beneficiary of the migration to tiered data plans as mobile accounted for 78.3% of service revenue in 2Q13.

• Evolving into a triple-play telco. M1 launched its new Internet TV service called MiBox in Jul 13. While it lacks crowd-pulling blockbuster content, MiBox cross-carries exclusive content, including Barclays Premier League matches. M1 will be able to cross-carry once it reaches the milestone of having 10,000 pay TV subscribers.

• A potential takeover target. M1 has a fragmented shareholding structure. Its largest shareholder, Axiata Group, owns a 29.0% stake, just a whisker away from the threshold of 30% that triggers a general offer. Other foreign telcos could acquire the two blocks of M1 shares from Keppel T&T and SPH, thus creating a tussle for control of M1.

• Re-iterate BUY. Our target price is S$3.95, based on DCF (required rate of return: 6.7%, terminal growth: 1.0%).




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: UOBKH-Research,
Publish date: 28/11/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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