Tuesday, December 24, 2013

Singapore Strategy: Time To Roar Again (DMG)

Singapore Strategy
Time To Roar Again

Singapore, a boring market? This may have been so for the past few years, but things are set to change in 2014. We believe that the conditions are ripe for the market to outperform its regional peers. In particular, we expect the small caps to spring back to life following a rout in 4Q13. Our STI target of 3,480 is based on a 15x FY14 P/E.

•Worst-performing market to regain lustre. Singapore seemed to have lost its shine over the past few years, no thanks to domestic restructuring as well as its neighbouring countries’ rapid growth. Compared to the US and Asean markets, the country’s stock market was the worst performing by a mile over the last three years. However, things are about to change next year as we expect Singapore to make a comeback.


•Reasonable valuations likely to expand. The market’s valuation, at a 13.2x FY14 P/E, is not expensive compared to its historical average. There are grounds for P/E expansion given that we expect to see a flight to safety and some stability in 2014. Based on a 15x FY14 P/E, our target for the STI is 3,480, while total returns, including dividends, will work out to 17%.

•Sector upgrades. We have made a few sector upgrades over the past two months, reflecting our positive views on the market. Incidentally, all of the upgrades were for the cyclical sectors, namely consumer, offshore & marine, plantation and technology.

•Small caps rock! While the blue chips are expected to deliver decent returns, what looks more interesting are the small caps. The small caps under our coverage are currently trading at 9x FY14 P/Es and are enjoying growth rates exceeding 20%, vs the large caps’ 14x and mid caps’ 15x FY14 P/Es. Construction sector and S-chips, both of which are largely in the small caps space, should see a pickup in investor interest.

•Our Top Picks are DBS, Ezion, Eu Yan Sang, First Resources, Keppel REIT, King Wan, Lian Beng, Midas Holdings, MTQ, Nam Cheong, OSIM International, Sembcorp Marine, ST Engineering, and Yangzijiang.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: DMG-Research,
Publish date: 23/12/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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