Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Singapore Market Strategy - 2014 outlook: A safer path to growth (CS)

Singapore Market Strategy -
2014 outlook: A safer path to growth

■ Singapore: Positioned for 'growth' and 'taper'. There are two major global themes likely in 2014: (1) an acceleration of global GDP growth (positive) and (2) a US 'taper' (potential currency and yield volatility; negative). With a stable (to strengthening) currency, inexpensive valuations, and yet with strong global linkages, we believe the Singapore equity market offers a unique, low-volatility exposure to potential growth improvement. The MSCI Singapore trades at 13.7x P/E, in line with its long-term average, and the one-month forward EPS for the market has been flat for almost 46 months. Growth can improve both.

■ But few sector-wise themes seen. The Singapore government is likely to maintain its tightening approach to property and labour markets. Consumption in the region remains under a cloud, and with an upward bias to rates (no more yield compression), there are few broad sector-wise themes evident for 2014. Any global economic strength then is likely to be largely captured by small- and mid-cap companies, and potentially by the commodity names.

■ Bottom-up stock picking. Among the large caps, the banks should benefit from SME/trade improvement. Our 2014 top picks are: (1) DBS, for valuations and earnings growth; (2) KEP, which could benefit from potential order inflow surprise; and (3) CAPL, which looks positioned for a strong earnings turnaround (through CMA). M1 (domestic data, broadband) and OSIM (strong sales momentum) are our top mid-cap picks. We also add FR and WIL to our model portfolio for commodity exposure to global growth.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: Credit Suisse
Publish date: 09/12/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
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