Tuesday, December 10, 2013

Singapore Hospitality : A modest recovery (DBSV)

Singapore Hospitality
A modest recovery

•Visitor arrivals in 2014 to continue growing
•Modest improvement in operating metrics but upside to be capped by new hotel openings
•Top picks: Genting Singapore and CDREIT

Visitor arrivals to remain on an uptrend. At 10.5m visitor arrivals (+8.5% y-o-y) as of YTD 8M13, visitor arrival growth continue to exceed expectations. Looking ahead, we believe 2014 will continue to see higher visitorship given: (I) Robust outlook for travel within the ASEAN region, especially major visitor source markets of Indonesia, India and China (c.45% of total visitors), (ii) The expected pick-up in business activities and a healthy pipeline of MICE and major conferences in 1H14. As such, we expect visitor arrivals to grow 6.0% y-o-y to 16.3m in 2014.


Supply risks however is not abating yet; CBD hotels and Orchard Road hotels to feel the heat. Over 4Q13-2014, the industry will see close to an additional 3,400 rooms or a 6% increase in room supply. Unlike 2013 where hotels are mainly in the mid-tier segment, 2014 will see completions from all sub-segments of the hotel market and the opening of major international branded operators like the Westin, Sofitel and Carlton in the Central Business District (CBD), Holiday Inn Express and Traders in 2H14 along Orchard Road. As these hotels are likely to compete directly with existing hotel chains for the corporate and leisure business, we expect the operating environment to remain competitive.

A modest recovery in RevPARs; upside from recovering business travel/MICE not priced in. With 16.3m base case forecasts in visitor arrivals, we forecast demand for accommodation to grow in line with supply growth over 2014, meaning occupancies to remain high at c.85-87%. While a pick-up in business travel and MICE travellers might mean higher average daily rates (ADRs), we believe that competition will continue to remain stiff, especially hotels in the CBD and Orchard Road. This is expected to cap upside in ADRs/RevPARs to c.3% y-o-y growth.

BUY calls. Genting Singapore (Upgrade to BUY, TP of S$1.75) remains the main beneficiary of the sustained growth in visitor arrivals and tourists spending in 2014. Among the hoteliers, we believe CDL Hospitality Trusts (BUY, S$1.84) offers the most leverage to the expected uptick in business and MICE travellers amongst competition in the market.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: DBSV-Research,
Publish date: 06/12/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock