Monday, December 16, 2013

Singapore Analyser - Outlook 2014 (UBS)

Singapore Analyser - Outlook 2014
Modest GDP growth outlook
UBS forecasts 4.5% GDP growth for Singapore in 2014, led by a cyclical recovery in global growth. We expect the Monetary Authority of Singapore to continue its policy of nominal effective exchange rate appreciation and estimate 2014 consumer price index growth of 3.1%, with a tight labour market and low unemployment rate.

Three investment themes for 2014
1) Global cyclical recovery takes shape—stocks we like have business models leveraged to the recovery and a significant proportion of earnings generated outside Singapore.
 2) QE tapering commences—we expect short-term Singapore dollar rates to remain low, while the yield curve continues to steepen. We think banks could continue to do well in this environment. We are selective on REITs, preferring those where tapering is priced in, and that provide potential DPU upside from a cyclical recovery.
3) China—we like stocks with exposure to secular growth in consumption and potential upside from policy reform.


Our stock and sector preferences
Our stock picks are CapitaCommercial Trust, CapitaMalls Asia, DBS Group, Genting Singapore, Keppel Corp, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Noble Group, OSIM, Sembcorp Industries, StarHub, and United Overseas Bank. We are Overweight banks, industrials and commercial real estate; Neutral on consumer, telecoms and transport; and Underweight residential real estate, industrial REITs and hospitality REITs.

Valuations look reasonable; end-2014E FSSTI target of 3,460
The Singapore market is trading at 13.8x 12-month forward PE, in line with its historical mean. On 1-year forward P/BV, it is at 1.36x P/BV, close to - 1std deviation. We forecast ROE to remain stable at 9.3% for 2013/2014. With short-term rates likely to remain close to zero and an average dividend yield of 3%, we believe valuations are reasonable. We forecast 8% EPS growth in 2014 and set an end-2014E FSSTI target of 3,460.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: UBS-Research
Publish date:02/12/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock