Saturday, December 21, 2013

NAVIGATING HONG KONG & CHINA : No risk, no return (CIMB)

NAVIGATING HONG KONG & CHINA
No risk, no return

China’s multi-year P/E de-rating should begin to reverse in 2014 on the back of a modestdecline in the equity risk premium and a stabilization in long-term earnings growth. Balancing structural and social objectives comeswith significant risk but the speed and sequencing of reform is at policy makers’ discretion. Pragmatism suggests that long-term goals will not be pursued at all cost. We expect Chinese equities to rise 20% in 2014 driven by a re-rating in financials (banks and insurance) and selected cyclicals more than offsetting the drag generated by areas subject to deleveraging and consolidation pressure.


Arresting the decline
We expect MSCI China to rise 20% in 2014, driven by 7% earnings growth and a 150bp decline in the equity risk premium, pushing the P/E multiple up from 9.2x to 10.7x forward earnings. Our top-down target is 5% higher than our analysts’ bottom-up driven market cap weighted return. This is a rare occurrence.

Valuation to cushion risk
Unlike most other Asian nations, China has limited exposure to exogenously-driven risks (weaker currency, higher rates, capital flight, politics and policy execution), raising the relative return appeal. Instead, its vulnerabilities lie with endogenously-driven risks but a substantial valuation cushion creates an asymmetric return skew if policy and/or growth disappoint.

High return, high dispersion
Large performance dispersion will again feature in 2014. The majority of China’s value lies in financials, suggesting that a move down the risk curve is needed for higher returns. A rally that is concentrated in reform/structural beneficiaries (i.e. a repeat of 2013) will be the result of a bear-case growth scenario.

Sector picks
We like banks, insurance, selected global and domestically leveraged cyclicals (retail, transport, shipping), and energy (oil & gas). We avoid areas subject to consolidation (capacity attrition), slowing investment, cyclical earnings pressures and those sensitive to rising rates or with high leverage (construction, materials and utilities). Fundamentals remain strong for gamers and autos but they will lose leadership in 2014.




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: CIMB-Research,
Publish date:11/12/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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