Sunday, December 15, 2013

Commodities Sector: Upgrade to NEUTRAL (OCBC)

Commodities Sector:
Upgrade to NEUTRAL

As expected, the commodities sector performed relatively poorly against the broader market for most part of 2013, after we maintained our Underweight rating from 2012. While some of the commodity plays have staged a recovery in 2H13, we note that valuations are still looking pretty inexpensive. From this perspective, we upgrade our rating from Underweight to NEUTRAL. Although we do not see any stock that stands out at the moment, there may be some potential upgrades should there be an over-correction in the market on the back of the Fed tapering.


Recovery in late 2H13
As expected, the commodities sector performed relatively poorly against the broader market for most part of 2013, after we maintained our Underweight rating from 2012. Against the STI’s 0.4% showing until 6 Dec 2013, the commodities stocks under coverage fell by an average of 6%. They had also fallen by as much as 19% at their lowest versus the STI’s 6% slide before staging a recovery in late 2H13.

Developed economies slowly recovering
Part of the recovery was buoyed by news that economies are slowly recovering, led by the US. According to the IMF (International Monetary Fund) in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO) report out in Oct, it now expects World Output to grow 3.6% in 2014, up slightly from the likely 2.9% growth in 2013. However, it warns that downside risks remain.

Slower Chinese economy may be a drag on commodities
Some of the “fresh” risks include slowing growth in China, which may affect many other economies, notably the commodity exporters among the emerging and developing economies. However, IMF believes slower near-term growth is a worth-while trade-off as there will be positive net effects in the longer term, which should lead to more stable demand for commodities.

Upgrade to NEUTRAL
While market sentiment may remain somewhat cautious until investors get a better handle on the magnitude and extent of the Fed tapering (widely expected to take place sooner rather than later), we believe that further signs of a firmer recovery in the US economy could lead investors to adopt a more “risk on” approach. And with the valuations of some of the commodity plays still looking relatively inexpensive, we could see potential upgrades for some of them if there is an over-correction in the market. Hence we also upgrade our rating from Underweight to NEUTRAL



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: OCBC-Research,
Publish date: 10/12/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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