Wednesday, December 11, 2013

CapitaMalls Asia : Yields heading north (CIMB)

CapitaMalls Asia
Current S$2.01
Target S$2.30
Yields heading north

We expect new malls in Singapore and higher property yields in China to power CMA’s earnings in the next 12-15 months. In China, we believe CMA is gradually building an edge over the local developers through its expertise in asset management. Portfolio yields, while still not optimal, are on a rising trend.

We keep our earnings estimates and target price, still on a 10% discount to RNAV. Under our revised rating structure, our call changes from Outperform to Add, with rental yield improvements and potential asset recycling being the catalysts.


Building an edge in China
Our recent ground checks on CMA’s retail malls in China reinforce our view that asset management remains its edge over local developers. Asset build is on track, with encouraging footfalls for its completed malls. We retain our view that CMA’s retail malls in China’s tier-1 cities are well managed and well positioned for rental growth. However, Tier-2 malls, while seeing better footfalls, have not yet reached the level seen in tier-1 cities. Overall, we believe that the demand landscape for mid-tier malls and product offerings in China are stronger than the luxury segment as price points are more in sync with the reported median income. This, in our view, is CMA’s strong suit. 55% of its GAV comes from China retail malls.

More malls completing and maturing
Over 83% of CMA’s China retail malls are now operational. We estimate that around 25% (9 out of 36) of its malls built before 2011 will enter their first leasing cycle at end- 2013-14. Similar to its more matured malls, CMA is confident of achieving 15-20% rental reversions for first rental renewals on the back of 7-10% annual retail sales growth in the last few years. We see potential for upside surprise. China rental reversions, coupled with asset completions in Singapore (e.g. Bedok Mall and Westgate), should underpin growth in rental income in FY14.

Rising yield trend
On a same-mall basis, yield on costs for malls opened in 2005-2011 has improved from 3.5-9.7% to 4.2-10.1%. We expect this trend to continue. Better yields for new malls could also be a possibility. For example, CMA expects the new CapitaMall Jinniu to generate a c.7% NPI yield after its first year, a marked improvement on the 4-5% achieved for new malls opened in 2011-12.




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: CIMB-Research,
Publish date: 02/12/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock