Tuesday, December 10, 2013

ASL Marine : Not resting on its laurels (CIMB)

ASL Marine
Current S$0.65
Target S$0.90
Not resting on its laurels

ASL is shifting its business model to speculative building, which offers customers convenience and flexibility. This makes sense in an improving OSV market.

Our FY14-16 forecasts and target price, still based on 0.9x CY14 P/BV, its 5-year mean, are unchanged. Under our new rating structure, our call changes from Outperform to Add. Catalysts could come from shipbuilding sales, faster turnaround of Vosta and big repair jobs.


No black sheep
We expect ASL to continue its good form from FY13, propped up by all its segments. Shipbuilding will continue to benefit from its order book of S$268m, which secures our FY14-15 forecasts. In addition, ship repair will be boosted by the completion of five units of rig repair (estimated contract value of S$30m-40m) in FY14. ASL only recognises revenue from ship repair work upon completion. Ship charter is also expected to do well with the deployment of more bareboat charters of its OSVs. Lastly, we expect Vosta‟s losses to narrow in FY14.

Not resting on its laurels
To compete more effectively against Chinese yards, ASL is shifting its business model to build-to-stock from build-to-order. It will start building four generic-designed AHTS (6,000-8,000 bhp) and one maintenance work vessel in 2014. These vessels will cost S$85m in total and will be financed through ASL‟s S$170m bonds. We concur that the refocus makes sense as build-to-stock offers convenience and flexibility to customers, especially in an improving OSV market.

Value play
We see value in ASL as it trades at 0.6x CY14 P/BV against a 3-year forward average ROE of 9.1% vs. COE of 9.3% (including 300bp for small-mid cap spread).




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: CIMB-Research,
Publish date: 29/11/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock