Monday, December 9, 2013

Ascendas REIT: Buffered From Downside (MKE)

Ascendas REIT
HOLD(unchanged)
Share price:SGD2.17
Target price:SGD2.30 (from SGD2.45)
Buffered From Downside

Capital value at risk. We see industrial REITs facing major downside risks from the impending hike in interest rates and possible recalibration of over-inflated property prices – both of which can drag down NAV. The physical capital values of industrial properties have doubled in the past four years compared with only a 20-50%rise in the other segments. The price-rental mismatch has also proven to be the most staggering. With rentals currently at an all-time high from 2008 peaks, we anticipate slower growth in FY14.


Lingering headwinds. Other challenges include a fragile global macroeconomic outlook and ample supply in the pipeline. Iskandar Malaysia will also pose competition in the medium term, especially for lower value-added industrial activities within Singapore. Empirical evidence suggests that warehouse rents and asset values in Singapore are, respectively, 2.5x and 8.5x higher than in Iskandar Malaysia.

Buffered from downside. A-REIT has committed SGD136.9m to development and asset enhancement works, which are scheduled for completion in 1Q-4Q14. We see these initiatives as DPU growth catalysts and providing price support in the event that industrial property prices start to turn south. We forecast DPU to grow at 4% CAGR in FY3/13-FY3/16. A-REIT has also reduced its revenue due for renewal at the beginning of FY3/13 from 21.4% to 10.5% at end-Sep 2013. It still has 22.4% of lease expiry in FY3/14 and 18.4% in FY3/15, consistent with prior years.

Moving up the value chain. Based on our estimates, A-REIT has 38% of its FY3/14F GAV in business/science parks and 23% in high-tech industrial/data centres. Only 16% remains in the light industrial/flatted factories segment. We expect the first two segments to progressively increase in proportion as Singapore outsources its lower value-add activities to neighbouring countries (warehouse rents and asset values in Singapore are, respectively, 2.5x and 8.5x higher than in Iskandar Malaysia). We see A-REIT’s success closely intertwined with the economic restructuring efforts of Singapore. Reiterate HOLD with a lower TP of SGD2.30.



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: MKE-Research,
Publish date: 06/12/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
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做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
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