Wednesday, November 6, 2013

Triyards : Hi, can I take your order now? (NRA)

Triyards Holdings
Current Price S$0.68
Fair Value S$0.83
Hi, can I take your order now?

 Earnings above expectation. Triyards’ 4Q13 net profit of US$10m came in above our US$8m net profit estimate due to higher-than-expected gross profit margins and lower-than-expected operating expenses. Despite the better than expected results, we reduce our FY14 net profit forecast by 5% and our FY15-16 net profit forecast by 22-43% due to the weak order book visibility. We roll over our fair value model to 7x FY15 PER from FY14. As a result, our fair value drops from S$0.97 to S$0.83. The group declared a final dividend of S$0.02, implying a 2.9% dividend yield. Maintain


Overweight.
 A good start to its new August FY. It recently secured two contracts worth US$59m for a BH335 self elevating unit (SEU) and construction for a turret for a Floating Production Storage and Offloading (FPSO) vessel in Indonesia. This marks the 10th SEU order received and will provide enough work to keep its yards busy for FY14. Its net order book stood at US$217m as at end FY08/13 for 4 vessels (-18% qoq), excluding the US$59m contract win.

 It will need 3-5 new orders of SEUs each year for FY15-16 to meet our new forecasts... Assuming a price of US$55m/unit of BH335, it will need at least 4-5 new orders each year for FY15-FY16 to provide work for its yards. As for its bigger version, the BH450, assuming a price of US85m/unit, it will need at least 3 units each year to provide work for FY15-16.

 … or just 2 orders of its jack-up rigs. Assuming a price of US$200m/unit of its TDU-400 drilling jack-up rig, that would provide enough work for FY15- 16 and we believe would be a major milestone for the group as it upgrades its capabilities to the next level.

 4Q13 revenue declined by 7% yoy to S$76.7m, due to lower contributions from the construction of the subsea construction vessel, Lewek Constellation. This was offset by the construction of new SEUs and contribution from its ship repair business.

 EBITDA margins decreased 5% pts yoy to 17.5% due to the decrease in contribution of a high value added project in 4Q13.

 Healthy balance sheet. Triyards generated US$29.6m negative free cash flow in 4Q from increased working capital needs and higher capex. As a result, its net gearing increased from 29% in the previous quarter to 52% as at end FY08/13. However, its net gearing has been decreasing from 60% and 56% in FY11 and FY12, respectively.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: NRA-Research,
Publish date: 01/11/13

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