Thursday, November 21, 2013

Singapore Strategy - Looking up (DBSV)

Singapore Strategy -
Looking up
■ China turning positive, Europe bottoming
■ Accumulate for growth into 2014
■ Banks a proxy to GDP recovery – buy OCBC
■ Growth vs yield

Accumulate on base building
The combination of stabilizing economies for China, Europe bottoming with upside for recovery, attractive relative valuation and the possibility of a further delay to QE tapering beyond March 2014, form the ingredients for an uptick in interest for Asian equities going forward, Singapore included.


Asia valuation is attractive
Given the strong DM equities performance YTD, forward PE valuation for Asia is looking more attractive. At 15.1x 12-mth forward PE, the MSCI USA is trading at +1SD level, similarly for MSCI Europe currently at 13x. This compares to the MSCI Asia Ex-Jap’s 12-mth forward PE level of 12.1x, below its 10-yr average of 12.4x, which offers GDP growth of 6.4%. Singapore is not expensive, trading at average PE of 13.6x (FY14F).

Banks a proxy to GDP recovery
Our economist has raised Singapore’s GDP growth forecasts for 2013 to 3.8% and 4% for 2014. Growth outlook in the G3 economies is improving while China’s growth momentum is also picking up, underpinned by more concrete reforms to restructure the economy after the closure of the third plenum. We expect such growth momentum to persist into 2014. Our pick is OCBC for its strong banking operations, asset quality and regional exposure.

Growth stocks outperform
Top picks for growth stocks are Ezion, Osim and Goodpack. Ezion offers the highest growth of 63%, backed by new contracts, charter income and expansion in margins. With 55% of sales from North Asia, Osim benefits from rising consumption in China, and consolidation of TWG earnings will add 4% to earnings. Goodpack is a proxy to US/Europe recovery with almost half of its revenue from that region. Midas is a recovery play on expectations of more high speed bullet train contracts from China.

Bumper dividend crop
Our yield picks include stocks which pay a bumper year-end dividend crop, dividend yield ranging between 4%-6.8%. Of the list, China Merchant offers the strongest growth, driven by acquisitions, while Venture Corp will benefit from global recovery and a rebound in business capex. CSE could yield bonanza payout of 28cents once it completes the listing/divestment of its UK subsidiary. M1 offers the highest growth among telco stocks and Keppel Corp is riding on margin recovery and strong order wins, with potential to further outperform expectations once its series of contracts from Pemex is confirmed.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: DBSV-Research,
Publish date: 20/13/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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