Thursday, November 21, 2013

Singapore - Asian Year Ahead 2014- Stock Ideas for the Year of the Horse (JPM)

Singapore - Asian Year Ahead 2014 -
Stock Ideas for the Year of the Horse

Micro-level investment case
Singapore is in the midst of a structural transformation from an input-driven economy towards a productivity driven economy. This transformation is having a significant impact on economic growth rates, inflation, the currency, and the overall structure of the economy.

Based on our previous research on the impact on growth rates from immigration reform, productivity, as well as industry cost structures, we believe Singapore’s inability to continue to rely on immigration flows for growth will present a significant retraining/development challenge. This in turn could create an extended drag on the economy.

Resilience of the growth outlook
While we are expecting a modest rebound in FY14 GDP growth expectations, this is also relative to significantly lower expectations since the start of 2013, with the Street revising FY13E GDP growth seven times from 3.8% to 2.7%. On a longer-term basis, we believe structural growth trends for Singapore will moderate going forward with tepid productivity gains unable to offset the slowdown in foreign labor flows. We expect long-term GDP growth to moderate from a 10-year historical CAGR of 6.2% to 4.1%, in line with the government’s projections of 3-5% p.a.

Drivers, trends, and datapoints we are tracking
We would closely track the magnitude and direction of macro forecast errors, as seen through our JPM Macro Error Index. We would also track key output-related indicators (e.g. GDP, PMI, Electronics indexes) in assessing the strength of the recovery. On Singapore’s labor transformation efforts, we would remain focused on labor productivity trends and wage pressure trends (either through core inflation or from read-throughs via corporate earnings). As we believe investor positioning will entail a cyclical bias, we would also keep an eye on major cyclical-related indices such as the BDI and aviation-related datapoints (load factors, pricing trends).

Key stock picks
We believe this marks the inflection point to position with a cyclical bias given improving economic fundamentals. Common themes within our top picks are names that are sector leaders in either product differentiation/cost efficiency (KEP SP, EZI SP), and names positioned to capitalize on structural industry upcycles (JCNC SP, GGR SP).





Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: JPM-Research,
Publish date: 18/11/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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