Monday, November 11, 2013

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust: After IDR depreciation, acquisitions may require more equity funding (SCB)

Lippo Malls Indonesia Retail Trust
PRICE as of 7 Nov 2013 SGD 0.45
PRICE TARGET SGD 0.46
After IDR depreciation, acquisitions may require more equity funding

 LMRT’s 3Q13 DPU was 5% below our estimate on higher than expected interest expenses.
 NAV fell 20% q/q and leverage rose 400bps due to IDR depreciation against the SGD in 3Q13.
 We expect LMRT to acquire SGD 350mn worth of assets, but now assume 60% equity financing vs. 35% previously.
 We maintain our In-Line rating with a revised price target of SGD 0.46 (from SGD 0.51).


 3Q13 NAV impacted by forex movements. LMRT‟s 3Q13 DPU of S¢ 0.87 was 5% below our S¢ 0.92 estimate, and 3% below consensus due to higher than expected interest expenses. Retail mall occupancy was stable q/q at 94.4% as of 30 September 2013. Due to 15% IDR depreciation against the SGD over the last three months, LMRT‟s NAV fell 20% q/q to SGD 0.45/unit. As LMRT uses SGD-denominated debt, its leverage also rose to 28.2% as of 30 September, from 24.2% three months ago.

Acquisitions likely in the next three-to-six months. LMRT aims to expand its portfolio to SGD 4bn in the next three-to-five years (from SGD 1.51bn currently) via sponsor and third-party assets. During the analyst call, management said they remain on the look-out for acquisition opportunities. In October, LMRT issued SGD 150mn notes under its MTN programme, which could potentially be used to finance acquisitions or refinance debt maturing in mid- 2014. With the increase in leverage this quarter, LMRT is now close to its medium-term leverage target of 30%. As a result, we think acquisitions would need to be partially financed by equity.

Assuming higher requirements for equity. We now assume SGD 350mn worth of acquisitions using 40/60 debt/equity funding (from 65/35 previously). We also factor in a lower IDR against the SGD based on the latest Standard Chartered Research forecasts. As a result, we lower our DPU estimates by 3% to 14%. We also lower our price target by 10% to SGD 0.46 (from SGD 0.51). Our PT is DDM-derived, using a 3.25% risk-free rate, 0.9 beta, 6.5% market risk premium, and 0.25% terminal growth. We like LMRT‟s low beta and high-yield exposure to Indonesian consumption. LMRT is trading at a 7.7% 2014E yield and 0.98x P/NAV. We maintain our In-Line rating on valuations.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: StandardChartered-Research,
Publish date:08/11/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock