Friday, November 1, 2013

CapitaMalls Asia: Chinese malls show underlying strength (OCBC)

CapitaMalls Asia:
Fair value S$2.55
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.04
versus: Current price S$2.05

Chinese malls show underlying strength
• 3Q13 results above view
• Firm numbers from Chinese malls
• Stable performance in Singapore

CMA reported 3Q13 PATMI of S$64.8m, which increased 4.0% YoY mainly due to profit recognition from Bedok Residences, the opening of Star Vista and a higher contribution from CMT. Adjusting for one-time items and fair value gains, 9M13 core PATMI cumulates to S$179.2m, forming 93% of our FY13 forecast and we judge this quarter to be above expectations mostly due to lower-than-anticipated opening costs from newly operational malls. CMA’s Chinese portfolio assets continue to put up firm numbers; the overall committed occupancy rate increased to 97.2% as at end Sep 13 from 96.9% as at end Jun 13. 9M13 tenant sales were also up a healthy 9.8% (excluding Tier 1 cities: 11.0%) while 9M13 shopper traffic increased 1.5%. We rate the stock with a BUY and an unchanged fair value estimate of S$2.55.


3Q13 PATMI up 4.0% YoY
CapitaMalls Asia (CMA) reported 3Q13 PATMI of S$64.8m, which increased 4.0% YoY mainly due to profit recognition from Bedok Residences, the opening of Star Vista and a higher contribution from CMT. Adjusting for one-time items and fair value gains, 9M13 core PATMI cumulates to S$179.2m, forming 93% of our FY13 forecast and we judge this quarter to be above expectations mostly due to lower-than-anticipated opening costs from newly operational malls. In terms of the topline, 3Q13 revenue is S$91.8m – down 10.1% YoY as property management fees from China declined.

Chinese retail segment shows underlying strength
CMA’s Chinese portfolio assets showed a marginal increase in its overall committed occupancy rate to 97.2% as at end Sep 13 from 96.9% as at end Jun 13. 9M13 tenant sales were up a healthy 9.8% (excluding Tier 1 cities: 11.0%) while 9M13 shopper traffic also increased 1.5%. In addition, on a 100% basis, same-mall NPI for CMA’s Chinese malls for 9M13 grew 12.0%. The group also opened CapitaMall Jinniu (Phase 2) in Chengdu on 29 Sep 2013 and expects a respectable NPI yield of 7% after the first year of operations. Looking forward we anticipate CMA will open two more malls in FY14, and subsequently eight malls in FY15 and after.

Stable performance in Singapore
We continue to see a stable performance in the group’s Singapore malls. 9M13 tenant sales increased 3.2% and shopper traffic was up 3.6%. Same-mall NPI growth also moved up 3.8%. Execution on its Singapore pipeline remains on track with both Bedok Mall and Westgate due to open in 4Q13 (with by now nearly 100% and 85% committed occupancy, respectively).

Maintain BUY
We rate the stock with a BUY and an unchanged fair value estimate of S$2.55.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: OCBC-Research
Publish date: 30/10/13

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