Thursday, November 21, 2013

CapitaMalls Asia - building up its core (Daiwa)

CapitaMalls Asia -
Target (SGD): 2.390
13 Nov price (SGD): 1.995
Building up its core

• A blue-chip pure play on necessity shopping and structural growth of Asia’s middle-income consumer group

• We expect CMA’s earnings quality and visibility to improve as it shifts its focus to nurturing its recurring income base


• Maturing of malls opened in recent years should drive a 30.9% core earnings CAGR for 2013-15E; initiating with a Buy

■ Investment case
CapitaMalls Asia (CMA) is a blue-chip developer and operator of shopping malls in five Asian countries. It offers exposure to necessity spending and Asia’s middle-income consumer group – segments that we believe will offer resilience and continue to see good structural growth for the next few years. We project strong core earnings growth for CMA for 2013-15 and see good valuation rerating potential. We thus initiate coverage with a Buy (1) rating.

CMA has an integrated shopping-mall business model spanning site location, development, leasing, operation and management of malls. The company is shifting its focus from developing projects towards nurturing its recurring income base, which we expect to improve its earnings quality and visibility in the next few years. We forecast a 30.9% core earnings CAGR for 2013-15, driven by its malls opened in recent years starting to mature and likely seeing positive rental reversions. We believe CMA’s overall portfolio has been conservatively appraised by independent valuers and should continue to experience positive revaluations.

■ Catalysts
We identify key share-price catalysts as continuous yield improvements at CMA’s China malls, successful openings of its two new malls in Singapore, and a sustained recovery in shopper traffic and tenant sales. Positive news flow on Asia retail sales would also support its share price. Further, in August 2013 CMA announced plans to collaborate with the Changi Airport Group to develop Project Jewel, a mixed-use complex at Changi airport. We think this would be positive for CMA if it can negotiate a sizeable equity stake in the project.

■ Valuation
Our six-month target price is SGD2.39, based on a 1.32x PBR (1SD above CMA’s six-month forward PBR since listing) applied to our six-month forward BVPS, and implies a 1.8% discount to our 2014E RNAV. CMA is trading at a PBR of 1.13x (based on its reported BVPS of SGD1.79 at end- 3Q13), just above its average rolling PBR since listing of 1.11x. We see good scope for a continuous rerating given our outlook for growth in its operating asset base and robust core earnings.

■ Risks
Key risks include an oversupply of malls, increasing competition, a slower-than-expected ramp-up of its China malls, and falling mall valuations if capitalisation rates rise.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: Daiwa-Research,
Publish date: 15/11/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock