Sunday, November 3, 2013

CapitaLand Limited: Continuing strong run in residential sales (OCBC)

CapitaLand Limited:
Fair value S$3.77
add: 12m dividend forecast S$0.07
versus: Current price S$3.12
Continuing strong run in residential sales

CapitaLand (CAPL) reported 3Q13 PATMI of S$135.5m which decreased 8.7% YoY mostly due to lower portfolio gains recognized over the quarter. We judge this to be mostly within expectations as 9M13 PATMI now cumulates to S$706.9m which constitutes 80.3% of our full year forecast. The group sold an impressive 1151 residential home units in Singapore over 9M13 versus 329 units in 9M12, and we continue to be positive on management’s focus on realistic pricing and generating sales. That said, with significant uncertainty in the residential space and 1239 unsold units in its pipeline, we see the group’s FY14 domestic sales likely easing from current levels. Residential sales in China continued the firm rate of sales seen over the year so far with 2398 homes sold in 9M13 versus 1978 homes in 9M12. Maintain BUY with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$3.77.


3Q numbers within expectations
CapitaLand (CAPL) reported 3Q13 PATMI of S$135.5m which decreased 8.7% YoY mostly due to lower portfolio gains recognized over the quarter. We judge this to be mostly within expectations as 9M13 PATMI now cumulates to S$706.9m which constitutes 80.3% of our full year forecast. 3Q13 topline came in at S$1047.1m, up 52.5% YoY mainly due to stronger contributions from development projects and higher rental revenue from retail malls, which is again broadly in line with our forecast; 9M13 revenue of S$2892.3m forms 73.0% of our FY13 estimates.

Firm launch at Sky Vue condominium
The group sold an impressive 1151 residential home units in Singapore over 9M13 versus 329 units over 9M12. 38% of YTD sales were from the Sky Vue launch, which saw 433 units (out of a total 694 units) sold at a median selling price of S$1.4k psf. CAPL also made progress in selling major projects Sky Habitat, d’Leedon and The Interlace which are 34%, 82% and 80% sold, respectively, as at end Sep 13. After a lackluster FY12 in terms of domestic residential sales, we are positive on management’s focus on realistic pricing and generating sales. That said, with significant uncertainty in the residential space and 1239 unsold units in its pipeline, we see the group’s FY14 domestic sales likely easing from current levels.

Keeping momentum in Chinese sales
Residential sales in China continued the firm rate of sales seen over the year so far with 2398 homes sold in 9M13 versus 1978 homes in 9M12. We understand that the take-up rate has stayed fairly healthy at 78% and the group has ~650 units launch ready for 4Q13 ahead. The group’s retail mall subsidiary, CapitaMalls Asia, also reported firm numbers with 3Q13 PATMI of S$64.8m increasing 4.0% YoY mainly due to profit recognition from Bedok Residences, the opening of Star Vista and a higher contribution from CMT. Maintain BUY on CAPL with an unchanged fair value estimate of S$3.77 (30% RNAV disc.).



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: OCBC-Research,
Publish date: 01/11/13

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