Friday, November 29, 2013

CapitaLand : Building an edge in China (CIMB)

CapitaLand  
Current S$3.01
Target S$3.96
Building an edge in China

▊ Our recent ground checks on CapLand’s China projects suggest that it is gradually establishing an edge in large-scale mixed developments. Asset build is on track and retail footfalls are encouraging. Its attitude of improving returns at the project level is also a positive, in our view. We tweak our FY13-15 core EPS by 1-2% but keep our target price, based on a 20% discount to RNAV. CapLand remains an Outperform, with catalysts from more capital recycling and yield uplifts.
 
What Happened
Last week, we toured CapLand’s projects in Shanghai and parts of south China (Guangzhou and Shenzhen), and also interacted with senior management and ground staff.  

 
What We Think
We think CapLand is gradually carving out a competitive advantage over the local developers in large-scale commercial and mixed developments. Though not all will bear fruit in the near term, we believe the stage is set for more asset recycling once many of its Raffles City (RC) mixed projects are completed in 2015-17. Meanwhile, we see improvements at the operational and project levels. In Shanghai, retail mall footfall remains robust, with a distinct improvement in traffic at Hongkou Plaza (CMA) since our last visit in 2012. This asset will enter its first renewal cycle in 2014 and management is confident of getting 15-20% rental reversions, like the group’s other malls. We think this is achievable. The feel is more mixed on China’s residential segment (12% of its GAV). The high-end segment remains weak due to the home purchase restrictions (HPR) but mid-end projects continue to sell well. Dolce Vita, a mid-range product in Guangzhou sold over 86% of its launched units at Rmb15k-20k psm. CapLand’s ground staff told us that property remains the most sought-after investment asset class in China. Interestingly, we noticed more of CapLand’s commercial projects being carved out for strata sales, a segment not affected by HPR. CEO Mr Lim Ming Yan’s style of management is to go bottom-up and improve yields and IRR at the project level. He expects development sales to be the ROE kicker, while maintaining a target 34% of its assets for development growth. Overall, we think CapLand is progressing well in achieving its ROE target of 8-12%.  
 
What You Should Do
CapLand remains one of our key picks in the sector at 0.8x P/BV.


Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: CIMB-Research,
Publish date: 27/11/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock