Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Bumitama Agri - Hurt by Low 3Q13 FFB Production (MKE)

Bumitama Agri -
Buy (unchanged)
Share price: SGD0.990
Target price: SGD1.14 (from SGD1.24)
Hurt by Low 3Q13 FFB Production

Below expectations. 3Q13 PATMI of IDR168.8b (+9% QoQ, -5% YoY) brought 9M13 to IDR475b (-15% YoY); 56% and 60% of our and street estimates respectively. We cut our 2013 PATMI forecast by 22% largely on lower FFB output growth and weaker CPO ASP. Conversely, we raise our 2014-15 PATMI by 5% largely on higher translated CPO ASP of MYR2,600/t in IDR terms, factoring in weaker IDR against MYR exchange rate of 3,300 (previously 3,154; +5%).

Maintain BUY on BAL with lower TP of SGD1.14 (previously SGD1.24) on unchanged 16x FY14 PER as higher 2014 (IDR) PATMI is insufficient to offset a strengthened SGD against IDR (+12%). Weak output in 3Q13. The weak 3Q13 was dragged down by (i) lower-than-expected FFB production of 257k (+3% QoQ, +4% YoY) which could be due to industry-wide biological tree stress phenomenon, and (ii) still low CPO ASP of IDR7,175/kg (+6% QoQ, -3% YoY). All-in cost of production for 3Q13 is estimated at IDR2,911/kg (+11% QoQ, +9% YoY).

Anticipate stronger 4Q13 results. This is underpinned by stronger 4Q13 output on delayed peak production quarter for 2013, and recent surge in CPO ASP to above IDR8,000/kg. That said, 2013’s FFB output is likely to fall short of our forecast of 1.135m MT (+20% YoY) as 9M13’s output has only met 66% of our 2013 forecast. Hence, we cut our 2013 forecast by 7% to 1.056 MT (+11% YoY). We leave our 2014-15 production forecasts unchanged pending management guidance.

2013 earnings forecast cut by 22%. Besides trimming our production forecasts, we also cut our 2013 CPO ASP forecast by 5% to MYR2,380/t (previously MYR2,500/t), while leaving our 2014-15 CPO ASP assumptions unchanged at MYR2,600/t.

Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: MKE-Research,
Publish date: 14/11/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock