Wednesday, October 23, 2013

Midas Holdings : High speed mode reactivated (CIMB)

Midas Holdings
Current S$0.48
Target S$0.74
High speed mode reactivated

 Midas announced that it has securedRmb167.5m worth of high speed rail contracts for delivery of 51 train setsover2013-14.This is within our expectations of Midas securing a majority of the 51 train set orders issued to CNR in Sep due to Midas being its key supplier in the past.

Given that this is Midas’s first high speed rail (HSR) contract win since orders were suspended in China in 2011, we believe this news is likely to provide a strong re-rating catalyst for the stock. Maintain Outperform, as we roll forward our target price to $0.74, based on 1.29x CY14P/BV(20% discount to mean P/BV from 2010-11).


What Happened
Midas announced today that it has secured HSR contracts worth Rmb167.5m from CNR Changchun and CNR Tangshan. Delivery for the 51 train sets is expected to take place over 2013-14, with the bulk of the orders to be delivered in 4Q13. This marks the first HSR contract that Midas has won since the former Ministry of Railways (MOR)suspended HSR orders in Jul 2011. The China Railway Corporation recently resumed HSR orders in Sep, giving out contracts for a total of 159 train sets. 108 train sets were awarded to CSR Qingdao Sifang, while 51 were given to CNR. While Midas is a preferred supplier to CNR, it has not clinched orders from CSR Qingdao Sifang in the past.

What We Think
This news is largely within our expectations of Midas securing a majority of the 51 contracts awarded to CNR, due to Midas’s position as a key supplier to CNR in the past. Midas also has a competitive advantage in having the dies to produce extrusion profiles for the CRH3 models ordered.

Historically, the MOR has issued an equal proportion of HSR orders to CSR and CNR. We expect CNR to secure more contracts over the next few rounds of tenders, which translates into more order wins for Midas. The market expects orders for another 131 train sets in Nov-Dec. Assuming CNR wins orders for 94 of the 131 train sets (50-50 split of total orders to date between CNR and CSR), and Midas secures contracts for all 94 train sets, this translates into a potential order win of Rmb309mfor Midas (assuming same price per train car) in the next round of procurement.

What You Should Do
We expect Midas’s share price to react positively to this news. Further HSR contract wins are likely to catalyse the stock. Thus, we keep our Outperform stance.



Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: CIMB-Research,
Publish date: 21/10/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock