Saturday, October 26, 2013

Mark Mobius: Dividend story remains compelling

Dividend story remains compelling
Business & Markets 2013
Written by Mark Mobius    
Tuesday, 22 October 2013 09:47

MANY people think of emerging market stocks as pure growth plays, and may not realise that there is a separate potential benefit —dividends — that can also be available to investors in these markets. A prolonged period of easy monetary policies in many developed nations (particularly the US) has left income-seeking investors searching for alternatives to traditional fixed income, including dividend-paying stocks.

Many investors may not realise dividends aren’t just a developed market phenomenon. In fact, the historical ability of a company to pay back shareholders in the form of dividends is an important criterion for us as we select stocks for our emerging market portfolios.

There’s been much speculation about the timing of the end of the US Federal Reserve’s longstanding quantitative easing (QE) programme, and when yields on Treasuries and other fixed income investments could rise.

If yields are going to rise, you might be asking: “Do dividends really matter?” We think they matter for a few reasons.

While we don’t know when the Fed’s QE programme will actually end, and even when it does end, that doesn’t necessarily mean the Fed will start tightening rates. Fed policymakers have been saying they are focused on employment, so if employment doesn’t improve, we won’t likely see QE come to an abrupt halt. You also need to consider where all the money the Fed has already pumped into the system is now.

The way we see it, banks have been strengthening their balance sheets and holding Treasuries, and now they seem more willing to lend. That money should eventually find its way into equities, and we believe that’s part of what may have been driving the US market to new heights this year. Monetary policy takes time to work, so even if the Fed isn’t pumping more new money in, there’s a lot already out there.

Additionally, the Japanese have launched their own US$2 trillion (RM6.32 trillion) easing programme this year, and another US$2.7 trillion is anticipated next year. The Europeans are also focused on stimulating their economies. The European Central Bank’s main short-term interest rate is now under 1%. So considering government bonds are currently yielding next to nothing in many countries, I think dividend paying stocks could remain appealing.

The dividend story
Dividends are very important, not just because investors like to receive the income they can potentially offer. We think dividends can be an indicator of good corporate governance. In the past, most companies in emerging markets preferred to put profits back into their businesses, rather than pay them out to shareholders. But today more are engaging in dividend payouts, and we think this is a good thing. If a company is giving dividends to shareholders and still has enough cash left over to expand and make needed capital investments, it’s very positive in our view. We find companies with a history of paying dividends particularly attractive to us. If a company’s management team is focused on the best interest of shareholders, we think they can be more successful.

In some cases, the emerging market dividend story is driven by policy and politics. In Brazil, companies are legally required to pay out at least 25% of their net profits in the form of dividends. A number of companies actually pay out more than that. And in some cases, governments who turn state-controlled enterprises loose (that is, privatise them) remain large stakeholders, and benefit directly from dividend payouts.

Dividends generally send a shareholder-friendly message that attracts foreign investors. However, it’s important to note that a company with poor corporate governance in other areas or a weak business model isn’t going to be transformed just by pursuing a dividend policy to boost its image. It still must have strong prospects and deliver results.

We spend a great deal of time doing in depth research on every company we invest in and this is an area where we believe an active management approach to investing has the potential to add value.

In the first half of 2013, emerging market companies have been paying out an estimated 30% to 35% of retained earnings in the form of dividends. Of course, in some countries, the payout ratios are much higher and, in others, lower.

The average dividend yield, which represents the ratio of dividends to the share price, currently stands at about 2.8% for emerging market equities.

Opportunity arises in Asia
Emerging markets in Asia represent a particularly good universe of companies with a record of paying dividends. According to our research, there are more than 18,000 actively listed companies in Asia (excluding Japan), of which close to 9,000 paid dividends in the past 12 months. And, many are yielding 3% or better. Gaming, telecoms, banks and property are sectors of particular interest to us in this region.

That doesn’t mean, of course, that we will invest in all of them. We prefer a history of steady and consistent payouts rather than huge fluctuations. And we are selective stock pickers. We also must analyse many other factors related to a company’s financial condition as we make our long-term projections.

In recent months, investors seemed to have turned cautious on Asian markets, but we think they still hold potential. Even allowing for a degree of uncertainty about Asian growth rates, various forecasters expect Asia’s GDP to grow at a faster rate than that of developed markets.

And governments in a number of countries across Asia have been enacting market reforms. China is the most notable case, with moves to partially liberalise the banking and energy markets buttressed by early initiatives to reform the “hukou” household registration policy that has been seen as a barrier to urbanisation and the development of a strong consumer economy.

While currency weakness in a number of Asian markets is a symptom of investor unease, it also has the effect of increasing the competitiveness of export businesses in the region. In spite of such positive developments and what we see as the potential for strong growth in corporate profitability in the long term, current equity valuations in Asia lag global peers in many cases. Our stock-by-stock fundamental research metrics continue to suggest the presence of many potentially attractive investment opportunities within the region.

A place for dividends
We know many investors are seeking income from their investments to meet a specific goal or fund their post-retirement needs. Dividends can play a role here. Interestingly, the 2013 Franklin Templeton Global Investor Sentiment Survey (GISS) revealed that more than half of the individuals surveyed globally believed they could meet their long-term goals without investing in stocks. Given the current low yields of many traditional fixed income investments, I’m not so certain. We think the dividend story remains compelling.

Mark Mobius is executive chairman of Templeton Emerging Markets Group.

This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on October 22, 2013.

Publish date: 22/10/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)



高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo

There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
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