Tuesday, October 8, 2013

Keppel-REIT : Still relatively cautious (Nomura)

Keppel-REIT
Target price Reduced from 1.23 - SGD 1.21
Closing price September 27, 2013 SGD 1.23
Still relatively cautious

Action: Upgrade to Neutral on valuation but still relatively cautious
KREIT has marginally outperformed the other REITs year to date (-5%, vs. FSTREI’s -5.6%) but our numbers suggest its cost of debt could rise significantly in the long run, especially if the currency mix of assets and debts is matched (4.5% vs. current 2.2%). Assuming the higher cost of debt and all management fees to be paid in cash would shave 2.8pp off FY15F yield, on our estimates. Compared to the long-term average risk free rate of 2.9%, valuation remains unattractive though more fairly valued after the recent correction, in our view, and hence the upgrade to Neutral.


Catalyst: Focus now on capital management
With a further increase in gearing to 44% (from 43%) as of end-June on account of the latest acquisition in Australia, we believe KREIT’s management’s focus will now be on capital management. The lower cost of AUD borrowings provides an opportunity for the manager to address the asset-liability currency mismatch, in our view.

Valuation: TP cut marginally to SGD1.21
We cut our TP marginally to SGD1.21 (from SGD1.23) on account of a higher ascribed FY14F yield spread of 4pp (from 3.9pp) and lower FY14F DPU (7.5Scts from 7.7Scts, following the recent placement of new units). As a cross-check, our current TP translates into a P/B multiple of 0.9x based on end-June book value of SGD1.27, which is a premium to the average multiple of 0.8x KREIT has traded at since 2006. Considering the improved trading liquidity, we believe the premium could be justified. Our TP of SGD1.21 implies a potential total return of 4.5% (potential downside of 1.6% + FY14F yield of 6.1%). Upgrade to Neutral.




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: Nomura-Research,
Publish date: 02/10/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
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做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
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每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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