Friday, October 25, 2013

Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH) Trust : Sign of the Times (Citi)

Hutchison Port Holdings (HPH) Trust
Price (21 Oct 13) US$0.77
Target price US$0.70
Sign of the Times: Core 3Q13 Results Decline 8% YoY

 3Q13 Results Struggle as Expected — HPHT reported 3Q earnings of HK$539.2m, down 8% YoY as volume at Yantian and HIT each fell in the quarter (although the weakness was offset by the acquisition of ACT in March).
Revenue in the quarter edged up slightly YoY, reflecting the better yield mix, while margins deteriorated somewhat, but were padded by better other operating income associated with FX gains at Yantian. Weaker throughput at HPHT’s 50% held COSCO-HIT operation were also weaker, affecting contribution from Associates/JCEs. Without the prefunded CapEx ‘safety net’ going forward (and an anticipated ~US$600m in spending through year end for land associated with Yantian West Port Ph 2), the distribution in FY13 is now expected to decline ~19% YoY (but still yields ~7%).

 Yantian Volumes Decline 3.5% YoY, HIT Declines 11.6% (Excluding ACT) — Due in part to difficult year-ago comps, 3Q13 throughput at Yantian declined 3.5% YoY, ending 9M13 relatively flattish. With easier comps in Nov/Dec, we are projecting 4Q13 volume growth to recover slightly, ending the year up ~1%. HIT throughput (excl the ACT acquisition benefit), declined 11.6% YoY in 3Q13 according to mgmt, but improved from the 20% decline in 2Q13, which was significantly affected by the labor issue (resolved in early May).

Easier 4Q Volume Comps, but Decelerating China Macro Outlook May Weigh on Cyclicals — Reflecting the weak 3Q13 results as well as export-related concerns in South China/Hong Kong, we have reduced our FY13/14 estimates by 6% and 10%, respectively. While the recent refinancing of HPHT’s US$3.6bn in debt removes an overhang, we do expect interest expense to rise over the next 12- 18 months; increased tax expense is also anticipated as certain tax holidays at Yantian begin to expire. We have tweaked our TP to  US$0.70 rolled forward to 2014.




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: Citi-Research,
Publish date: 21/10/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock