Monday, October 7, 2013

Ascendas REIT : Outperformance could continue (Nomura)

Ascendas REIT
Outperformance could continue
Target price Increased from 2.47 SGD 2.61
Closing price September 27, 2013 SGD 2.34

Action: Upgrading to Buy; outperformance could continue
AREIT has outperformed the other REITs year to date (-1.3%, vs. FSTREI’s -5.6%), and we think the outperformance could continue considering its relatively defensive yield, decent growth profile and strong balance sheet. We upgrade our rating to Buy.


Catalyst: Business park demand remains focus
Besides AREIT’s commitment at the newly completed Nexus and the upcoming Kallang development, we think the market will likely focus on the demand for the business park portfolio in the coming quarters, especially at 1 CBP Ave 1 and 31 IBP, where asset enhancements are taking place.

Valuation: TP raised to SGD2.61 (from SGD2.47)
We raise our TP to SGD2.61 (from SGD2.47) to principally reflect a lower ascribed FY15F yield spread of 3.1pp (from 4.5pp), offset by a lower NAV estimate of SGD2.31 (from SGD2.44). Our “true” yield analysis suggests AREIT still offers a reasonable return over the long-term risk-free rate if we were to remove all short-term distribution boosts (“true” yield spread 3.2pp vs. trough spread 2.6pp). Coupled with above-average projected DPU growth (3-year CAGR = 4.5%) and low gearing (0.29x as of end-June), we believe AREIT’s overall quality deserves a premium valuation. As a cross-check, our current TP translates into a P/B multiple of 1.3x based on end-June book value of SGD1.94, which is in line with the average multiple at which AREIT has traded since 2003. Our TP of SGD2.61 implies a potential total return of 17.8% (potential upside 11.5% + FY15F yield 6.3%), and we upgrade to Buy from Neutral.




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: Nomura-Research,
Publish date: 02/10/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
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做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

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“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
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每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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