Monday, September 23, 2013

PSR Coverage – Deep Value Play (Phillip)

PSR Coverage – Deep Value Play
We introduce three stocks, which forms our Deep Value Play list. We think that the market has not realized the fair value of these stocks. Current share price presents significant upside potential.

#1: Amara Holdings – Trading at > 50% disc to RNAV
Amara (Buy, TP: S$0.74) engages mainly in two business areas; Hotel (development and management) and Residential (Development and Sales).
Additionally, the company engages in F&B businesses to complement its hotel segment. Amara reported a stellar performance in 2Q13, with 2Q13 PATMI growing 51.6% y-y. We like Amara for the following reasons. 1) Trading at Deep discount to valuation, we value Amara at S$0.74, based on a conservative 40% discount to RNAV of S$1.23. 2) Normalization of recurring earnings (hotel assets) is expected to bring in approximately S$0.045/share. This is expected to come from the completed refurbishment of Amara Singapore, and completion of 100AM, the hotel’s neighboring retail mall. Amara Sanctuary is also expected to experience higher occupancy. 3) Overseas expansion to bring in higher revenue. Amara is expanding both in Shanghai (Mixed development-Hotel/Office/Retail to be completed in 2015) and Bangkok (By 1Q14). Amara recently signed an MOU, indicating their intention to potentially build and manage a Hotel in Myanmar.


#2: Boustead Singapore – Record order books for IPDB and Energy, Total Order books a record S$491m.
Boustead operates market leading infrastructure related businesses: Geospatial Technology (28% PBT), Industrial Property Design & Build (IPDB) + Property Portfolio (58%), Water & Wastewater Engineering (1%), and Energy Related Engineering (13%). We like Boustead for the following reasons. 1) Growth of recurring income through its exclusive distribution and service agreements for its Geospatial Technology business with ESRI Inc. ESRI is the global leader in GIS (geographic information systems), with 60% of global market share for governments. Operations in Malaysia, Indonesia and Australia are expected to be the main growth drivers. The exclusive relationship with Boustead implies almost no competition in those markets. 2) Strong pipeline of work, Regional market leadership in the IPDB business. Boustead is one of only three know full turnkey players in Asia. Orderbook is at a record S$274m. 3) Benefitting from the Shale energy boom, with resurgence of orders for the Energy Related Engineering business. Boustead is one of only four players in the Direct Fired Heat Processors and Waste Heat Recovery segment. Orderbook is at a record S$187m. 4) Attractive dividend yields of 5.1%-5.3% for FY14E-15E., with an average historical payout ratio of ~52%. Capex is minimal at 5% of earnings, thus cash flow can be used to reward shareholders, and in making more value accretive investments.


#3: Courts Asia – Benefit from rising credit demand
Courts (Buy, TP: S$1.14) is an electrical, IT products and furniture retailer in Singapore and Malaysia. Courts will be expanding to Indonesia by CY2014. We like Courts for the following reasons. 1) Current share price low relative to our Fair value of S$1.14. Share price has aggressively corrected recently, possibly due to disappointing sales figures. This is partly due to the lack of new launch of attractive products. However, we continue to see growth in the medium term, both from expansion of retail space, and higher sales from existing retail space. 2) Unique in-house credit facilities provide an additional source of recurring revenue. Margins are also attractive at interest rates >20%. Bad debts have also been manageable, as Courts is able to tap on its long operating experience and customer data collected in both Singapore and Malaysia. 3) Higher demand for credit facilities and goods from recent tightening of unsecured lending leading both in Singapore and Malaysia. Besides increasing sales volume, Courts is also able to be more selective, lending only to higher quality customers. 4) Expansion to Indonesia is also expected to increase revenue. While initial contributions are expected to be small, and credit cost may be higher due to lack of customer data, this provides strong growth potential.




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: Phillip-Research,
Publish date: 20/09/13

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Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
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