Thursday, September 26, 2013

Hi-P International : Prospects Dim (DMG)

Hi-P International
Target Price: SGD0.76
Price: SGD0.73
Prospects Dim

Following Blackberry’s dismal results guidance and Apple’s disappointing pricing for its iPhone 5c, we are now less positive on Hi-P International (HIP)’s outlook for 4Q13 and beyond and thus, lower our earnings forecasts accordingly. We downgrade the stock to NEUTRAL and trim our TP to SGD0.76, based on a blended 13.5x FY13/14 P/E, -1 SD from its three-year historical forward P/E.


• Blackberry’s recovery seems short-lived. Blackberry announced bleak 2QFY14 preliminary results last Friday, causing its shares to tumble to a 52-week low before bouncing back following a privatisation offer. It expects to: i) report half of the projected revenue of USD1.6bn on the back of 3.7m smartphone sales (mostly Blackberry 7 smartphones), ii) write down USD930-960m worth of Blackberry 10 inventory, which will lead to USD1.0bn in operating losses, and iii) retrench 40% of its workforce in order to lower operating costs. These lead us to believe that Blackberry’s recovery story no longer holds, which could significantly affect HIP’s orders from this particular customer going forward.

• Demand for iPhone 5c not as great. While the record-breaking debut weekend sales indicate an exceptionally strong initial demand for iPhone 5s, this may not be the case for the iPhone 5c. Previously speculated to target the mid-end market, the iPhone 5c is currently priced at USD549 in the US or CNY4,488 in China. We believe the pricing makes it difficult to penetrate into the emerging market. The 24-hour lead times at Apple suggest that demand is soft (compared to the gold iPhone 5s which will only be available in October). As HIP’s production is more involved with the iPhone 5c rather than the iPhone 5s, we are now less optimistic on its outlook.

• Prospects dim. After incorporating the weaker-than-expected outlook for two of HIP’s key customers (Blackberry and Apple) – which contribute an estimated 20% of revenue each – we lower our FY14 and FY15 forecasts by 21.9% and 14.4% respectively. While we continue to see a solid 3Q and an overall stronger 2H, HIP’s sequential quarterly profit growth (as previously guided by management) may come to an end in 3Q.




Source/Extract/Excerpts/来源/转贴/摘录: DMG-Research,
Publish date: 25/09/13

No comments:

Post a Comment

Warren E. Buffett(沃伦•巴菲特)
Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful
别人贪婪时我恐惧, 别人恐惧时我贪婪
投资只需学好两门课: 一,是如何给企业估值,二,是如何看待股市波动
吉姆·罗杰斯(Jim Rogers)
“错过时机”胜于“搞错对象”:不会全军覆没!”
做自己熟悉的事,等到发现大好机会才投钱下去

乔治·索罗斯(George Soros)

“犯错误并没有什么好羞耻的,只有知错不改才是耻辱。”

如果操作过量,即使对市场判断正确,仍会一败涂地。

李驰(中国巴菲特)
高估期间, 卖对, 不卖也对, 买是错的。
低估期间, 买对, 不买也是对, 卖是错的。

Tan Teng Boo


There’s no such thing as defensive stocks.Every stock can be defensive depending on what price you pay for it and what value you get,
冷眼(冯时能)投资概念
“买股票就是买公司的股份,买股份就是与陌生人合股做生意”。
合股做生意,则公司股份的业绩高于一切,而股票的价值决定于盈利。
价值是本,价格是末,故公司比股市重要百倍。
曹仁超-香港股神/港股明灯
1.有智慧,不如趁势
2.止损不止盈
成功者所以成功,是因为不怕失败!失败者所以失败,是失败后不再尝试!
曾淵滄-散户明灯
每逢灾难就是机会,而是在灾难发生时贱价买股票,然后放在一边,耐性地等灾难结束
  • Selected Indexes 52 week range

  • Margin of Safety

    Investment Clock

    World's First Interactive Investment Clock